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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A series of mid-level troughs will traverse the southwest quadrant of the CONUS today, with the lead impulse ejecting into the southern Plains this afternoon. A vertically stacked cyclone with a trailing dryline will progress across the southern High Plains, promoting dry and windy conditions behind the dryline that are capable of supporting rapid wildfire spread. As the dryline surges east across western Texas by afternoon peak heating, 25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 15 percent RH while overspreading dry fine fuels. Thunderstorms (some potentially severe) will initiate along the dryline across the northern Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma, potentially limiting the northeastern most extent of favorable wildfire-spread conditions. While dry thunderstorms are not expected to be the main fire-weather concern, the first few lightning strikes during storm initiation may support fire starts, potentially being further exacerbated by dry/windy conditions from the passing dryline. Please see the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe thunderstorm threat over parts of the southern Plains. ..Squitieri.. 03/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA..ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A rapidly developing line of thunderstorms probably will be accompanied by a risk for severe hail, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two across parts of the southern Great Plains by Monday night. ...Discussion... In the wake of de-amplifying cold, mid/upper troughing shifting away from the Atlantic Seaboard, much of North America will be under the influence of split flow emanating from the Pacific through this period. This regime will remain characterized by relatively high mean mid-level heights, but with a couple of significant embedded short wave troughs. As one of these progresses across the eastern Pacific toward the Pacific coast, a more prominent downstream trough appears likely to cross the southern Rockies into the central and southern Great Plains by late Monday night. The lead trough likely will be comprised of at least a couple of notable smaller-scale perturbations, and the details concerning its evolution and motion have been varied in the model output. Spread remains within the latest model runs, but there appears better consensus concerning impacts on convective potential. Associated large-scale forcing for ascent is forecast to support strong surface cyclogenesis within deepening lee surface troughing, across parts of eastern Colorado into western Kansas late Monday through Monday night. This likely will be accompanied by intensifying southerly low-level wind fields (including 40-50+ kt around 850 mb) across much of the southern and central Great Plains through lower Missouri Valley, and a gradual increase in moisture off a still modifying boundary layer over the western Gulf Basin. ...Southern Great Plains... By Monday evening, models indicate that low-level moistening may include surface dew points increasing into/through the lower to mid 60s F in a plume across central Texas through much of central Oklahoma and adjacent southern Kansas. By around 04/06Z, if not earlier, it now appears that destabilization beneath steepening lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates may yield a narrow corridor of mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg near the western edge of the moist plume. This probably will be aided by the leading edge of mid-level forcing for ascent and cooling, and contribute to the initiation of a narrow corridor of thunderstorm development across western into central Oklahoma and northwest Texas. In the presence of strengthening deep-layer wind fields and shear, a couple of supercells are possible before convection consolidates into an organizing line. This may be fairly quick, but still accompanied by the risk for severe hail, potentially damaging wind gusts and perhaps potential for a tornado or two. Stronger thunderstorm development probably will tend to develop south-southeastward into and across the I-35 corridor overnight, associated with the more moist/unstable inflow. ..Kerr.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA..ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A rapidly developing line of thunderstorms probably will be accompanied by a risk for severe hail, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two across parts of the southern Great Plains by Monday night. ...Discussion... In the wake of de-amplifying cold, mid/upper troughing shifting away from the Atlantic Seaboard, much of North America will be under the influence of split flow emanating from the Pacific through this period. This regime will remain characterized by relatively high mean mid-level heights, but with a couple of significant embedded short wave troughs. As one of these progresses across the eastern Pacific toward the Pacific coast, a more prominent downstream trough appears likely to cross the southern Rockies into the central and southern Great Plains by late Monday night. The lead trough likely will be comprised of at least a couple of notable smaller-scale perturbations, and the details concerning its evolution and motion have been varied in the model output. Spread remains within the latest model runs, but there appears better consensus concerning impacts on convective potential. Associated large-scale forcing for ascent is forecast to support strong surface cyclogenesis within deepening lee surface troughing, across parts of eastern Colorado into western Kansas late Monday through Monday night. This likely will be accompanied by intensifying southerly low-level wind fields (including 40-50+ kt around 850 mb) across much of the southern and central Great Plains through lower Missouri Valley, and a gradual increase in moisture off a still modifying boundary layer over the western Gulf Basin. ...Southern Great Plains... By Monday evening, models indicate that low-level moistening may include surface dew points increasing into/through the lower to mid 60s F in a plume across central Texas through much of central Oklahoma and adjacent southern Kansas. By around 04/06Z, if not earlier, it now appears that destabilization beneath steepening lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates may yield a narrow corridor of mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg near the western edge of the moist plume. This probably will be aided by the leading edge of mid-level forcing for ascent and cooling, and contribute to the initiation of a narrow corridor of thunderstorm development across western into central Oklahoma and northwest Texas. In the presence of strengthening deep-layer wind fields and shear, a couple of supercells are possible before convection consolidates into an organizing line. This may be fairly quick, but still accompanied by the risk for severe hail, potentially damaging wind gusts and perhaps potential for a tornado or two. Stronger thunderstorm development probably will tend to develop south-southeastward into and across the I-35 corridor overnight, associated with the more moist/unstable inflow. ..Kerr.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA..ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A rapidly developing line of thunderstorms probably will be accompanied by a risk for severe hail, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two across parts of the southern Great Plains by Monday night. ...Discussion... In the wake of de-amplifying cold, mid/upper troughing shifting away from the Atlantic Seaboard, much of North America will be under the influence of split flow emanating from the Pacific through this period. This regime will remain characterized by relatively high mean mid-level heights, but with a couple of significant embedded short wave troughs. As one of these progresses across the eastern Pacific toward the Pacific coast, a more prominent downstream trough appears likely to cross the southern Rockies into the central and southern Great Plains by late Monday night. The lead trough likely will be comprised of at least a couple of notable smaller-scale perturbations, and the details concerning its evolution and motion have been varied in the model output. Spread remains within the latest model runs, but there appears better consensus concerning impacts on convective potential. Associated large-scale forcing for ascent is forecast to support strong surface cyclogenesis within deepening lee surface troughing, across parts of eastern Colorado into western Kansas late Monday through Monday night. This likely will be accompanied by intensifying southerly low-level wind fields (including 40-50+ kt around 850 mb) across much of the southern and central Great Plains through lower Missouri Valley, and a gradual increase in moisture off a still modifying boundary layer over the western Gulf Basin. ...Southern Great Plains... By Monday evening, models indicate that low-level moistening may include surface dew points increasing into/through the lower to mid 60s F in a plume across central Texas through much of central Oklahoma and adjacent southern Kansas. By around 04/06Z, if not earlier, it now appears that destabilization beneath steepening lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates may yield a narrow corridor of mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg near the western edge of the moist plume. This probably will be aided by the leading edge of mid-level forcing for ascent and cooling, and contribute to the initiation of a narrow corridor of thunderstorm development across western into central Oklahoma and northwest Texas. In the presence of strengthening deep-layer wind fields and shear, a couple of supercells are possible before convection consolidates into an organizing line. This may be fairly quick, but still accompanied by the risk for severe hail, potentially damaging wind gusts and perhaps potential for a tornado or two. Stronger thunderstorm development probably will tend to develop south-southeastward into and across the I-35 corridor overnight, associated with the more moist/unstable inflow. ..Kerr.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA..ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A rapidly developing line of thunderstorms probably will be accompanied by a risk for severe hail, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two across parts of the southern Great Plains by Monday night. ...Discussion... In the wake of de-amplifying cold, mid/upper troughing shifting away from the Atlantic Seaboard, much of North America will be under the influence of split flow emanating from the Pacific through this period. This regime will remain characterized by relatively high mean mid-level heights, but with a couple of significant embedded short wave troughs. As one of these progresses across the eastern Pacific toward the Pacific coast, a more prominent downstream trough appears likely to cross the southern Rockies into the central and southern Great Plains by late Monday night. The lead trough likely will be comprised of at least a couple of notable smaller-scale perturbations, and the details concerning its evolution and motion have been varied in the model output. Spread remains within the latest model runs, but there appears better consensus concerning impacts on convective potential. Associated large-scale forcing for ascent is forecast to support strong surface cyclogenesis within deepening lee surface troughing, across parts of eastern Colorado into western Kansas late Monday through Monday night. This likely will be accompanied by intensifying southerly low-level wind fields (including 40-50+ kt around 850 mb) across much of the southern and central Great Plains through lower Missouri Valley, and a gradual increase in moisture off a still modifying boundary layer over the western Gulf Basin. ...Southern Great Plains... By Monday evening, models indicate that low-level moistening may include surface dew points increasing into/through the lower to mid 60s F in a plume across central Texas through much of central Oklahoma and adjacent southern Kansas. By around 04/06Z, if not earlier, it now appears that destabilization beneath steepening lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates may yield a narrow corridor of mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg near the western edge of the moist plume. This probably will be aided by the leading edge of mid-level forcing for ascent and cooling, and contribute to the initiation of a narrow corridor of thunderstorm development across western into central Oklahoma and northwest Texas. In the presence of strengthening deep-layer wind fields and shear, a couple of supercells are possible before convection consolidates into an organizing line. This may be fairly quick, but still accompanied by the risk for severe hail, potentially damaging wind gusts and perhaps potential for a tornado or two. Stronger thunderstorm development probably will tend to develop south-southeastward into and across the I-35 corridor overnight, associated with the more moist/unstable inflow. ..Kerr.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA..ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A rapidly developing line of thunderstorms probably will be accompanied by a risk for severe hail, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two across parts of the southern Great Plains by Monday night. ...Discussion... In the wake of de-amplifying cold, mid/upper troughing shifting away from the Atlantic Seaboard, much of North America will be under the influence of split flow emanating from the Pacific through this period. This regime will remain characterized by relatively high mean mid-level heights, but with a couple of significant embedded short wave troughs. As one of these progresses across the eastern Pacific toward the Pacific coast, a more prominent downstream trough appears likely to cross the southern Rockies into the central and southern Great Plains by late Monday night. The lead trough likely will be comprised of at least a couple of notable smaller-scale perturbations, and the details concerning its evolution and motion have been varied in the model output. Spread remains within the latest model runs, but there appears better consensus concerning impacts on convective potential. Associated large-scale forcing for ascent is forecast to support strong surface cyclogenesis within deepening lee surface troughing, across parts of eastern Colorado into western Kansas late Monday through Monday night. This likely will be accompanied by intensifying southerly low-level wind fields (including 40-50+ kt around 850 mb) across much of the southern and central Great Plains through lower Missouri Valley, and a gradual increase in moisture off a still modifying boundary layer over the western Gulf Basin. ...Southern Great Plains... By Monday evening, models indicate that low-level moistening may include surface dew points increasing into/through the lower to mid 60s F in a plume across central Texas through much of central Oklahoma and adjacent southern Kansas. By around 04/06Z, if not earlier, it now appears that destabilization beneath steepening lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates may yield a narrow corridor of mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg near the western edge of the moist plume. This probably will be aided by the leading edge of mid-level forcing for ascent and cooling, and contribute to the initiation of a narrow corridor of thunderstorm development across western into central Oklahoma and northwest Texas. In the presence of strengthening deep-layer wind fields and shear, a couple of supercells are possible before convection consolidates into an organizing line. This may be fairly quick, but still accompanied by the risk for severe hail, potentially damaging wind gusts and perhaps potential for a tornado or two. Stronger thunderstorm development probably will tend to develop south-southeastward into and across the I-35 corridor overnight, associated with the more moist/unstable inflow. ..Kerr.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from western North Texas into western Oklahoma this afternoon and early evening. Large hail and strong/marginally severe winds, and a couple tornadoes are the primary hazards. ...OK/TX... A compact upper low and attendant shortwave trough will shift east from NM into the southern Plains this afternoon/evening, before weakening as it evolves toward the Lower MS Valley by Monday morning. An 80 to 100 kt 500 mb jet will overspread parts of northwest TX on the southern periphery of the upper low, with the left exit region of the jet streak favorably oriented over the southwest OK vicinity. Forecast guidance has continued to creep southward with the position of the upper low/trough and jet streak. As a result, the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk as been removed from southwest KS. At the surface, a weak low will develop eastward from eastern NM through the TX Panhandle and far western OK through evening. Strong southerly low-level flow will result in some northward transport of Gulf moisture, but this moisture will likely remain modest. Forecast guidance has trended toward dewpoints in the low to mid 50s F over the last few model cycles. A potential boost in low-level moisture may be tied to expected rain/elevated thunderstorms arcing across the region during the morning into early afternoon. However, this precipitation and associated cloudiness also will prevent stronger diurnal heating. Strong vertical wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings across the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK. Enlarged, looping low-level hodographs are expected, with low-topped supercells possibly developing by 20-22z. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to be quite steep, with 500 mb temperatures around -20 C, supporting MLCAPE up to 500-750 J/kg. Warming above 500 mb and backing midlevel winds above 700 mb will limit longevity of deeper, organized updrafts. However, strong ascent and forecast 3 km MLCAPE values approaching 100-125 J/kg amid favorable low-level shear suggests any stronger storms may be capable of producing brief tornadoes. Additionally, given steep midlevel lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft, and a sufficient elevated instability, isolated large hail may also occur. Sporadic strong gusts approaching 50 mph will also be possible as storms track across western north TX and western OK. The severe risk is expected to remain fairly limited in space and time and is a bit conditional on quality of low-level moisture. Nevertheless, a relatively higher probability for a couple of tornadoes and large hail exists across the far eastern TX Panhandle into southwest OK, and a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been introduced. ..Leitman/Squitieri.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from western North Texas into western Oklahoma this afternoon and early evening. Large hail and strong/marginally severe winds, and a couple tornadoes are the primary hazards. ...OK/TX... A compact upper low and attendant shortwave trough will shift east from NM into the southern Plains this afternoon/evening, before weakening as it evolves toward the Lower MS Valley by Monday morning. An 80 to 100 kt 500 mb jet will overspread parts of northwest TX on the southern periphery of the upper low, with the left exit region of the jet streak favorably oriented over the southwest OK vicinity. Forecast guidance has continued to creep southward with the position of the upper low/trough and jet streak. As a result, the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk as been removed from southwest KS. At the surface, a weak low will develop eastward from eastern NM through the TX Panhandle and far western OK through evening. Strong southerly low-level flow will result in some northward transport of Gulf moisture, but this moisture will likely remain modest. Forecast guidance has trended toward dewpoints in the low to mid 50s F over the last few model cycles. A potential boost in low-level moisture may be tied to expected rain/elevated thunderstorms arcing across the region during the morning into early afternoon. However, this precipitation and associated cloudiness also will prevent stronger diurnal heating. Strong vertical wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings across the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK. Enlarged, looping low-level hodographs are expected, with low-topped supercells possibly developing by 20-22z. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to be quite steep, with 500 mb temperatures around -20 C, supporting MLCAPE up to 500-750 J/kg. Warming above 500 mb and backing midlevel winds above 700 mb will limit longevity of deeper, organized updrafts. However, strong ascent and forecast 3 km MLCAPE values approaching 100-125 J/kg amid favorable low-level shear suggests any stronger storms may be capable of producing brief tornadoes. Additionally, given steep midlevel lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft, and a sufficient elevated instability, isolated large hail may also occur. Sporadic strong gusts approaching 50 mph will also be possible as storms track across western north TX and western OK. The severe risk is expected to remain fairly limited in space and time and is a bit conditional on quality of low-level moisture. Nevertheless, a relatively higher probability for a couple of tornadoes and large hail exists across the far eastern TX Panhandle into southwest OK, and a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been introduced. ..Leitman/Squitieri.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from western North Texas into western Oklahoma this afternoon and early evening. Large hail and strong/marginally severe winds, and a couple tornadoes are the primary hazards. ...OK/TX... A compact upper low and attendant shortwave trough will shift east from NM into the southern Plains this afternoon/evening, before weakening as it evolves toward the Lower MS Valley by Monday morning. An 80 to 100 kt 500 mb jet will overspread parts of northwest TX on the southern periphery of the upper low, with the left exit region of the jet streak favorably oriented over the southwest OK vicinity. Forecast guidance has continued to creep southward with the position of the upper low/trough and jet streak. As a result, the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk as been removed from southwest KS. At the surface, a weak low will develop eastward from eastern NM through the TX Panhandle and far western OK through evening. Strong southerly low-level flow will result in some northward transport of Gulf moisture, but this moisture will likely remain modest. Forecast guidance has trended toward dewpoints in the low to mid 50s F over the last few model cycles. A potential boost in low-level moisture may be tied to expected rain/elevated thunderstorms arcing across the region during the morning into early afternoon. However, this precipitation and associated cloudiness also will prevent stronger diurnal heating. Strong vertical wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings across the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK. Enlarged, looping low-level hodographs are expected, with low-topped supercells possibly developing by 20-22z. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to be quite steep, with 500 mb temperatures around -20 C, supporting MLCAPE up to 500-750 J/kg. Warming above 500 mb and backing midlevel winds above 700 mb will limit longevity of deeper, organized updrafts. However, strong ascent and forecast 3 km MLCAPE values approaching 100-125 J/kg amid favorable low-level shear suggests any stronger storms may be capable of producing brief tornadoes. Additionally, given steep midlevel lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft, and a sufficient elevated instability, isolated large hail may also occur. Sporadic strong gusts approaching 50 mph will also be possible as storms track across western north TX and western OK. The severe risk is expected to remain fairly limited in space and time and is a bit conditional on quality of low-level moisture. Nevertheless, a relatively higher probability for a couple of tornadoes and large hail exists across the far eastern TX Panhandle into southwest OK, and a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been introduced. ..Leitman/Squitieri.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from western North Texas into western Oklahoma this afternoon and early evening. Large hail and strong/marginally severe winds, and a couple tornadoes are the primary hazards. ...OK/TX... A compact upper low and attendant shortwave trough will shift east from NM into the southern Plains this afternoon/evening, before weakening as it evolves toward the Lower MS Valley by Monday morning. An 80 to 100 kt 500 mb jet will overspread parts of northwest TX on the southern periphery of the upper low, with the left exit region of the jet streak favorably oriented over the southwest OK vicinity. Forecast guidance has continued to creep southward with the position of the upper low/trough and jet streak. As a result, the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk as been removed from southwest KS. At the surface, a weak low will develop eastward from eastern NM through the TX Panhandle and far western OK through evening. Strong southerly low-level flow will result in some northward transport of Gulf moisture, but this moisture will likely remain modest. Forecast guidance has trended toward dewpoints in the low to mid 50s F over the last few model cycles. A potential boost in low-level moisture may be tied to expected rain/elevated thunderstorms arcing across the region during the morning into early afternoon. However, this precipitation and associated cloudiness also will prevent stronger diurnal heating. Strong vertical wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings across the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK. Enlarged, looping low-level hodographs are expected, with low-topped supercells possibly developing by 20-22z. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to be quite steep, with 500 mb temperatures around -20 C, supporting MLCAPE up to 500-750 J/kg. Warming above 500 mb and backing midlevel winds above 700 mb will limit longevity of deeper, organized updrafts. However, strong ascent and forecast 3 km MLCAPE values approaching 100-125 J/kg amid favorable low-level shear suggests any stronger storms may be capable of producing brief tornadoes. Additionally, given steep midlevel lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft, and a sufficient elevated instability, isolated large hail may also occur. Sporadic strong gusts approaching 50 mph will also be possible as storms track across western north TX and western OK. The severe risk is expected to remain fairly limited in space and time and is a bit conditional on quality of low-level moisture. Nevertheless, a relatively higher probability for a couple of tornadoes and large hail exists across the far eastern TX Panhandle into southwest OK, and a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been introduced. ..Leitman/Squitieri.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from western North Texas into western Oklahoma this afternoon and early evening. Large hail and strong/marginally severe winds, and a couple tornadoes are the primary hazards. ...OK/TX... A compact upper low and attendant shortwave trough will shift east from NM into the southern Plains this afternoon/evening, before weakening as it evolves toward the Lower MS Valley by Monday morning. An 80 to 100 kt 500 mb jet will overspread parts of northwest TX on the southern periphery of the upper low, with the left exit region of the jet streak favorably oriented over the southwest OK vicinity. Forecast guidance has continued to creep southward with the position of the upper low/trough and jet streak. As a result, the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk as been removed from southwest KS. At the surface, a weak low will develop eastward from eastern NM through the TX Panhandle and far western OK through evening. Strong southerly low-level flow will result in some northward transport of Gulf moisture, but this moisture will likely remain modest. Forecast guidance has trended toward dewpoints in the low to mid 50s F over the last few model cycles. A potential boost in low-level moisture may be tied to expected rain/elevated thunderstorms arcing across the region during the morning into early afternoon. However, this precipitation and associated cloudiness also will prevent stronger diurnal heating. Strong vertical wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings across the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK. Enlarged, looping low-level hodographs are expected, with low-topped supercells possibly developing by 20-22z. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to be quite steep, with 500 mb temperatures around -20 C, supporting MLCAPE up to 500-750 J/kg. Warming above 500 mb and backing midlevel winds above 700 mb will limit longevity of deeper, organized updrafts. However, strong ascent and forecast 3 km MLCAPE values approaching 100-125 J/kg amid favorable low-level shear suggests any stronger storms may be capable of producing brief tornadoes. Additionally, given steep midlevel lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft, and a sufficient elevated instability, isolated large hail may also occur. Sporadic strong gusts approaching 50 mph will also be possible as storms track across western north TX and western OK. The severe risk is expected to remain fairly limited in space and time and is a bit conditional on quality of low-level moisture. Nevertheless, a relatively higher probability for a couple of tornadoes and large hail exists across the far eastern TX Panhandle into southwest OK, and a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been introduced. ..Leitman/Squitieri.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from western North Texas into western Oklahoma this afternoon and early evening. Large hail and strong/marginally severe winds, and a couple tornadoes are the primary hazards. ...OK/TX... A compact upper low and attendant shortwave trough will shift east from NM into the southern Plains this afternoon/evening, before weakening as it evolves toward the Lower MS Valley by Monday morning. An 80 to 100 kt 500 mb jet will overspread parts of northwest TX on the southern periphery of the upper low, with the left exit region of the jet streak favorably oriented over the southwest OK vicinity. Forecast guidance has continued to creep southward with the position of the upper low/trough and jet streak. As a result, the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk as been removed from southwest KS. At the surface, a weak low will develop eastward from eastern NM through the TX Panhandle and far western OK through evening. Strong southerly low-level flow will result in some northward transport of Gulf moisture, but this moisture will likely remain modest. Forecast guidance has trended toward dewpoints in the low to mid 50s F over the last few model cycles. A potential boost in low-level moisture may be tied to expected rain/elevated thunderstorms arcing across the region during the morning into early afternoon. However, this precipitation and associated cloudiness also will prevent stronger diurnal heating. Strong vertical wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings across the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK. Enlarged, looping low-level hodographs are expected, with low-topped supercells possibly developing by 20-22z. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to be quite steep, with 500 mb temperatures around -20 C, supporting MLCAPE up to 500-750 J/kg. Warming above 500 mb and backing midlevel winds above 700 mb will limit longevity of deeper, organized updrafts. However, strong ascent and forecast 3 km MLCAPE values approaching 100-125 J/kg amid favorable low-level shear suggests any stronger storms may be capable of producing brief tornadoes. Additionally, given steep midlevel lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft, and a sufficient elevated instability, isolated large hail may also occur. Sporadic strong gusts approaching 50 mph will also be possible as storms track across western north TX and western OK. The severe risk is expected to remain fairly limited in space and time and is a bit conditional on quality of low-level moisture. Nevertheless, a relatively higher probability for a couple of tornadoes and large hail exists across the far eastern TX Panhandle into southwest OK, and a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been introduced. ..Leitman/Squitieri.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis... A dearth of boundary-layer moisture and strong surface high pressure east of the Rockies will preclude thunderstorm potential for the remainder of this evening/overnight. ..Leitman.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis... A dearth of boundary-layer moisture and strong surface high pressure east of the Rockies will preclude thunderstorm potential for the remainder of this evening/overnight. ..Leitman.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis... A dearth of boundary-layer moisture and strong surface high pressure east of the Rockies will preclude thunderstorm potential for the remainder of this evening/overnight. ..Leitman.. 03/02/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Mar 1 22:29:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Mar 1 22:29:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain very active through much of next week with a progressive pattern resulting in a series of strong mid/upper-level troughs moving across the southern U.S. Meanwhile, the persistent dry conditions across the southern High Plains will continue to promote further drying of fuels, with critically dry fuels expected over a broad area. Multiple days of very strong winds, very low minimum RH values, and critically receptive fuels are expected. Higher-end critical conditions - with significant fire potential - appear probable on Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. ...Southern Plains: Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 7/Friday... A large mid-level trough is forecast to rapidly deepen over the Four Corners on Day 3/Monday as strong mid-level flow overspreads a warm and dry low-level airmass across the Southern Plains. In response, an area of rapidly developing lee cyclogenesis is expected across portions of CO/KS, which will tighten the surface pressure gradient. The combination of very strong surface winds, very low minimum RH, and critically receptive fuels (including locally heavy herbaceous fuel loading) will promote higher-end and potentially significant fire weather conditions - especially across portions of New Mexico and far western Texas. Higher-end critical fire weather conditions (with significant fire weather potential) will also be possible Day 4/Tuesday across portions of Texas as the aforementioned surface low moves eastward. The primary uncertainty remains the eastward extent of the fire weather threat, which may be modulated somewhat by wetting rainfall ahead of the system. After a brief break from large-scale fire weather conditions across the southern High Plains Day 5/Wednesday, fire weather conditions are forecast to return Day 6/Thursday through at least Day 7/Friday as another mid-level trough moves across the southern U.S. Enough run-to-run and inter-model consistency exists to introduce 40% probabilities for Critical conditions both Day 6/Thursday (in a dry return flow pattern) and Day 7/Friday (behind a dryline/frontal passage), where the most favorable overlap of strong winds, low RH, and receptive fuel is currently expected. ...Eastern US: Day 5/Wednesday - Day 6/Thursday... Local fire weather conditions are possible Day 5/Wednesday and Day 6/Thursday across portions of the Southeast U.S., as dry/breezy conditions occur behind a cold frontal passage. However, at this time, confidence for any critical fire weather risk is low due to precipitation potential ahead of the front perhaps reducing fuel receptiveness. ..Elliott.. 03/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain very active through much of next week with a progressive pattern resulting in a series of strong mid/upper-level troughs moving across the southern U.S. Meanwhile, the persistent dry conditions across the southern High Plains will continue to promote further drying of fuels, with critically dry fuels expected over a broad area. Multiple days of very strong winds, very low minimum RH values, and critically receptive fuels are expected. Higher-end critical conditions - with significant fire potential - appear probable on Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. ...Southern Plains: Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 7/Friday... A large mid-level trough is forecast to rapidly deepen over the Four Corners on Day 3/Monday as strong mid-level flow overspreads a warm and dry low-level airmass across the Southern Plains. In response, an area of rapidly developing lee cyclogenesis is expected across portions of CO/KS, which will tighten the surface pressure gradient. The combination of very strong surface winds, very low minimum RH, and critically receptive fuels (including locally heavy herbaceous fuel loading) will promote higher-end and potentially significant fire weather conditions - especially across portions of New Mexico and far western Texas. Higher-end critical fire weather conditions (with significant fire weather potential) will also be possible Day 4/Tuesday across portions of Texas as the aforementioned surface low moves eastward. The primary uncertainty remains the eastward extent of the fire weather threat, which may be modulated somewhat by wetting rainfall ahead of the system. After a brief break from large-scale fire weather conditions across the southern High Plains Day 5/Wednesday, fire weather conditions are forecast to return Day 6/Thursday through at least Day 7/Friday as another mid-level trough moves across the southern U.S. Enough run-to-run and inter-model consistency exists to introduce 40% probabilities for Critical conditions both Day 6/Thursday (in a dry return flow pattern) and Day 7/Friday (behind a dryline/frontal passage), where the most favorable overlap of strong winds, low RH, and receptive fuel is currently expected. ...Eastern US: Day 5/Wednesday - Day 6/Thursday... Local fire weather conditions are possible Day 5/Wednesday and Day 6/Thursday across portions of the Southeast U.S., as dry/breezy conditions occur behind a cold frontal passage. However, at this time, confidence for any critical fire weather risk is low due to precipitation potential ahead of the front perhaps reducing fuel receptiveness. ..Elliott.. 03/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain very active through much of next week with a progressive pattern resulting in a series of strong mid/upper-level troughs moving across the southern U.S. Meanwhile, the persistent dry conditions across the southern High Plains will continue to promote further drying of fuels, with critically dry fuels expected over a broad area. Multiple days of very strong winds, very low minimum RH values, and critically receptive fuels are expected. Higher-end critical conditions - with significant fire potential - appear probable on Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. ...Southern Plains: Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 7/Friday... A large mid-level trough is forecast to rapidly deepen over the Four Corners on Day 3/Monday as strong mid-level flow overspreads a warm and dry low-level airmass across the Southern Plains. In response, an area of rapidly developing lee cyclogenesis is expected across portions of CO/KS, which will tighten the surface pressure gradient. The combination of very strong surface winds, very low minimum RH, and critically receptive fuels (including locally heavy herbaceous fuel loading) will promote higher-end and potentially significant fire weather conditions - especially across portions of New Mexico and far western Texas. Higher-end critical fire weather conditions (with significant fire weather potential) will also be possible Day 4/Tuesday across portions of Texas as the aforementioned surface low moves eastward. The primary uncertainty remains the eastward extent of the fire weather threat, which may be modulated somewhat by wetting rainfall ahead of the system. After a brief break from large-scale fire weather conditions across the southern High Plains Day 5/Wednesday, fire weather conditions are forecast to return Day 6/Thursday through at least Day 7/Friday as another mid-level trough moves across the southern U.S. Enough run-to-run and inter-model consistency exists to introduce 40% probabilities for Critical conditions both Day 6/Thursday (in a dry return flow pattern) and Day 7/Friday (behind a dryline/frontal passage), where the most favorable overlap of strong winds, low RH, and receptive fuel is currently expected. ...Eastern US: Day 5/Wednesday - Day 6/Thursday... Local fire weather conditions are possible Day 5/Wednesday and Day 6/Thursday across portions of the Southeast U.S., as dry/breezy conditions occur behind a cold frontal passage. However, at this time, confidence for any critical fire weather risk is low due to precipitation potential ahead of the front perhaps reducing fuel receptiveness. ..Elliott.. 03/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more