Aggregator

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AND WESTERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... The second and larger in a series of mid-level troughs will traverse the Southern Rockies tomorrow (Monday), encouraging rapid surface low development along the High Plains. Behind a trailing surface dryline, widespread dry and windy conditions will prevail for several hours Monday afternoon, promoting dangerous wildfire-spread potential. Widespread 20+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will become common across much of New Mexico into southeastern Colorado and western Texas, necessitating the introduction of broad Elevated/Critical highlights. However, deterministic and ensemble guidance consensus (including high-resolution members) depict a belt of 30-40 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds coinciding with 5-10 percent RH for at least a few hours across portions of eastern New Mexico into Far West Texas. In this area, fuel receptiveness is approaching critical thresholds, and when considering the intense winds with very low RH, at least localized to potentially widespread extreme wildfire-spread behavior is possible, with Extremely Critical highlights introduced. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected to develop across the southern Plains Sunday into Monday. The southwestern most extent of these storms may occur across portions of western Texas into Oklahoma, which may temper wildfire-spread concerns in the northeastern portions of the Elevated and Critical highlights. As such, these particular highlights may need considerable adjustments in later outlooks. ..Squitieri.. 03/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AND WESTERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... The second and larger in a series of mid-level troughs will traverse the Southern Rockies tomorrow (Monday), encouraging rapid surface low development along the High Plains. Behind a trailing surface dryline, widespread dry and windy conditions will prevail for several hours Monday afternoon, promoting dangerous wildfire-spread potential. Widespread 20+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will become common across much of New Mexico into southeastern Colorado and western Texas, necessitating the introduction of broad Elevated/Critical highlights. However, deterministic and ensemble guidance consensus (including high-resolution members) depict a belt of 30-40 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds coinciding with 5-10 percent RH for at least a few hours across portions of eastern New Mexico into Far West Texas. In this area, fuel receptiveness is approaching critical thresholds, and when considering the intense winds with very low RH, at least localized to potentially widespread extreme wildfire-spread behavior is possible, with Extremely Critical highlights introduced. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected to develop across the southern Plains Sunday into Monday. The southwestern most extent of these storms may occur across portions of western Texas into Oklahoma, which may temper wildfire-spread concerns in the northeastern portions of the Elevated and Critical highlights. As such, these particular highlights may need considerable adjustments in later outlooks. ..Squitieri.. 03/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AND WESTERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... The second and larger in a series of mid-level troughs will traverse the Southern Rockies tomorrow (Monday), encouraging rapid surface low development along the High Plains. Behind a trailing surface dryline, widespread dry and windy conditions will prevail for several hours Monday afternoon, promoting dangerous wildfire-spread potential. Widespread 20+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will become common across much of New Mexico into southeastern Colorado and western Texas, necessitating the introduction of broad Elevated/Critical highlights. However, deterministic and ensemble guidance consensus (including high-resolution members) depict a belt of 30-40 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds coinciding with 5-10 percent RH for at least a few hours across portions of eastern New Mexico into Far West Texas. In this area, fuel receptiveness is approaching critical thresholds, and when considering the intense winds with very low RH, at least localized to potentially widespread extreme wildfire-spread behavior is possible, with Extremely Critical highlights introduced. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected to develop across the southern Plains Sunday into Monday. The southwestern most extent of these storms may occur across portions of western Texas into Oklahoma, which may temper wildfire-spread concerns in the northeastern portions of the Elevated and Critical highlights. As such, these particular highlights may need considerable adjustments in later outlooks. ..Squitieri.. 03/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AND WESTERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... The second and larger in a series of mid-level troughs will traverse the Southern Rockies tomorrow (Monday), encouraging rapid surface low development along the High Plains. Behind a trailing surface dryline, widespread dry and windy conditions will prevail for several hours Monday afternoon, promoting dangerous wildfire-spread potential. Widespread 20+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will become common across much of New Mexico into southeastern Colorado and western Texas, necessitating the introduction of broad Elevated/Critical highlights. However, deterministic and ensemble guidance consensus (including high-resolution members) depict a belt of 30-40 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds coinciding with 5-10 percent RH for at least a few hours across portions of eastern New Mexico into Far West Texas. In this area, fuel receptiveness is approaching critical thresholds, and when considering the intense winds with very low RH, at least localized to potentially widespread extreme wildfire-spread behavior is possible, with Extremely Critical highlights introduced. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected to develop across the southern Plains Sunday into Monday. The southwestern most extent of these storms may occur across portions of western Texas into Oklahoma, which may temper wildfire-spread concerns in the northeastern portions of the Elevated and Critical highlights. As such, these particular highlights may need considerable adjustments in later outlooks. ..Squitieri.. 03/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A series of mid-level troughs will traverse the southwest quadrant of the CONUS today, with the lead impulse ejecting into the southern Plains this afternoon. A vertically stacked cyclone with a trailing dryline will progress across the southern High Plains, promoting dry and windy conditions behind the dryline that are capable of supporting rapid wildfire spread. As the dryline surges east across western Texas by afternoon peak heating, 25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 15 percent RH while overspreading dry fine fuels. Thunderstorms (some potentially severe) will initiate along the dryline across the northern Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma, potentially limiting the northeastern most extent of favorable wildfire-spread conditions. While dry thunderstorms are not expected to be the main fire-weather concern, the first few lightning strikes during storm initiation may support fire starts, potentially being further exacerbated by dry/windy conditions from the passing dryline. Please see the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe thunderstorm threat over parts of the southern Plains. ..Squitieri.. 03/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A series of mid-level troughs will traverse the southwest quadrant of the CONUS today, with the lead impulse ejecting into the southern Plains this afternoon. A vertically stacked cyclone with a trailing dryline will progress across the southern High Plains, promoting dry and windy conditions behind the dryline that are capable of supporting rapid wildfire spread. As the dryline surges east across western Texas by afternoon peak heating, 25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 15 percent RH while overspreading dry fine fuels. Thunderstorms (some potentially severe) will initiate along the dryline across the northern Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma, potentially limiting the northeastern most extent of favorable wildfire-spread conditions. While dry thunderstorms are not expected to be the main fire-weather concern, the first few lightning strikes during storm initiation may support fire starts, potentially being further exacerbated by dry/windy conditions from the passing dryline. Please see the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe thunderstorm threat over parts of the southern Plains. ..Squitieri.. 03/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A series of mid-level troughs will traverse the southwest quadrant of the CONUS today, with the lead impulse ejecting into the southern Plains this afternoon. A vertically stacked cyclone with a trailing dryline will progress across the southern High Plains, promoting dry and windy conditions behind the dryline that are capable of supporting rapid wildfire spread. As the dryline surges east across western Texas by afternoon peak heating, 25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 15 percent RH while overspreading dry fine fuels. Thunderstorms (some potentially severe) will initiate along the dryline across the northern Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma, potentially limiting the northeastern most extent of favorable wildfire-spread conditions. While dry thunderstorms are not expected to be the main fire-weather concern, the first few lightning strikes during storm initiation may support fire starts, potentially being further exacerbated by dry/windy conditions from the passing dryline. Please see the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe thunderstorm threat over parts of the southern Plains. ..Squitieri.. 03/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A series of mid-level troughs will traverse the southwest quadrant of the CONUS today, with the lead impulse ejecting into the southern Plains this afternoon. A vertically stacked cyclone with a trailing dryline will progress across the southern High Plains, promoting dry and windy conditions behind the dryline that are capable of supporting rapid wildfire spread. As the dryline surges east across western Texas by afternoon peak heating, 25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 15 percent RH while overspreading dry fine fuels. Thunderstorms (some potentially severe) will initiate along the dryline across the northern Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma, potentially limiting the northeastern most extent of favorable wildfire-spread conditions. While dry thunderstorms are not expected to be the main fire-weather concern, the first few lightning strikes during storm initiation may support fire starts, potentially being further exacerbated by dry/windy conditions from the passing dryline. Please see the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe thunderstorm threat over parts of the southern Plains. ..Squitieri.. 03/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A series of mid-level troughs will traverse the southwest quadrant of the CONUS today, with the lead impulse ejecting into the southern Plains this afternoon. A vertically stacked cyclone with a trailing dryline will progress across the southern High Plains, promoting dry and windy conditions behind the dryline that are capable of supporting rapid wildfire spread. As the dryline surges east across western Texas by afternoon peak heating, 25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 15 percent RH while overspreading dry fine fuels. Thunderstorms (some potentially severe) will initiate along the dryline across the northern Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma, potentially limiting the northeastern most extent of favorable wildfire-spread conditions. While dry thunderstorms are not expected to be the main fire-weather concern, the first few lightning strikes during storm initiation may support fire starts, potentially being further exacerbated by dry/windy conditions from the passing dryline. Please see the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe thunderstorm threat over parts of the southern Plains. ..Squitieri.. 03/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A series of mid-level troughs will traverse the southwest quadrant of the CONUS today, with the lead impulse ejecting into the southern Plains this afternoon. A vertically stacked cyclone with a trailing dryline will progress across the southern High Plains, promoting dry and windy conditions behind the dryline that are capable of supporting rapid wildfire spread. As the dryline surges east across western Texas by afternoon peak heating, 25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 15 percent RH while overspreading dry fine fuels. Thunderstorms (some potentially severe) will initiate along the dryline across the northern Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma, potentially limiting the northeastern most extent of favorable wildfire-spread conditions. While dry thunderstorms are not expected to be the main fire-weather concern, the first few lightning strikes during storm initiation may support fire starts, potentially being further exacerbated by dry/windy conditions from the passing dryline. Please see the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe thunderstorm threat over parts of the southern Plains. ..Squitieri.. 03/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A series of mid-level troughs will traverse the southwest quadrant of the CONUS today, with the lead impulse ejecting into the southern Plains this afternoon. A vertically stacked cyclone with a trailing dryline will progress across the southern High Plains, promoting dry and windy conditions behind the dryline that are capable of supporting rapid wildfire spread. As the dryline surges east across western Texas by afternoon peak heating, 25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 15 percent RH while overspreading dry fine fuels. Thunderstorms (some potentially severe) will initiate along the dryline across the northern Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma, potentially limiting the northeastern most extent of favorable wildfire-spread conditions. While dry thunderstorms are not expected to be the main fire-weather concern, the first few lightning strikes during storm initiation may support fire starts, potentially being further exacerbated by dry/windy conditions from the passing dryline. Please see the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe thunderstorm threat over parts of the southern Plains. ..Squitieri.. 03/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA..ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A rapidly developing line of thunderstorms probably will be accompanied by a risk for severe hail, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two across parts of the southern Great Plains by Monday night. ...Discussion... In the wake of de-amplifying cold, mid/upper troughing shifting away from the Atlantic Seaboard, much of North America will be under the influence of split flow emanating from the Pacific through this period. This regime will remain characterized by relatively high mean mid-level heights, but with a couple of significant embedded short wave troughs. As one of these progresses across the eastern Pacific toward the Pacific coast, a more prominent downstream trough appears likely to cross the southern Rockies into the central and southern Great Plains by late Monday night. The lead trough likely will be comprised of at least a couple of notable smaller-scale perturbations, and the details concerning its evolution and motion have been varied in the model output. Spread remains within the latest model runs, but there appears better consensus concerning impacts on convective potential. Associated large-scale forcing for ascent is forecast to support strong surface cyclogenesis within deepening lee surface troughing, across parts of eastern Colorado into western Kansas late Monday through Monday night. This likely will be accompanied by intensifying southerly low-level wind fields (including 40-50+ kt around 850 mb) across much of the southern and central Great Plains through lower Missouri Valley, and a gradual increase in moisture off a still modifying boundary layer over the western Gulf Basin. ...Southern Great Plains... By Monday evening, models indicate that low-level moistening may include surface dew points increasing into/through the lower to mid 60s F in a plume across central Texas through much of central Oklahoma and adjacent southern Kansas. By around 04/06Z, if not earlier, it now appears that destabilization beneath steepening lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates may yield a narrow corridor of mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg near the western edge of the moist plume. This probably will be aided by the leading edge of mid-level forcing for ascent and cooling, and contribute to the initiation of a narrow corridor of thunderstorm development across western into central Oklahoma and northwest Texas. In the presence of strengthening deep-layer wind fields and shear, a couple of supercells are possible before convection consolidates into an organizing line. This may be fairly quick, but still accompanied by the risk for severe hail, potentially damaging wind gusts and perhaps potential for a tornado or two. Stronger thunderstorm development probably will tend to develop south-southeastward into and across the I-35 corridor overnight, associated with the more moist/unstable inflow. ..Kerr.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA..ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A rapidly developing line of thunderstorms probably will be accompanied by a risk for severe hail, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two across parts of the southern Great Plains by Monday night. ...Discussion... In the wake of de-amplifying cold, mid/upper troughing shifting away from the Atlantic Seaboard, much of North America will be under the influence of split flow emanating from the Pacific through this period. This regime will remain characterized by relatively high mean mid-level heights, but with a couple of significant embedded short wave troughs. As one of these progresses across the eastern Pacific toward the Pacific coast, a more prominent downstream trough appears likely to cross the southern Rockies into the central and southern Great Plains by late Monday night. The lead trough likely will be comprised of at least a couple of notable smaller-scale perturbations, and the details concerning its evolution and motion have been varied in the model output. Spread remains within the latest model runs, but there appears better consensus concerning impacts on convective potential. Associated large-scale forcing for ascent is forecast to support strong surface cyclogenesis within deepening lee surface troughing, across parts of eastern Colorado into western Kansas late Monday through Monday night. This likely will be accompanied by intensifying southerly low-level wind fields (including 40-50+ kt around 850 mb) across much of the southern and central Great Plains through lower Missouri Valley, and a gradual increase in moisture off a still modifying boundary layer over the western Gulf Basin. ...Southern Great Plains... By Monday evening, models indicate that low-level moistening may include surface dew points increasing into/through the lower to mid 60s F in a plume across central Texas through much of central Oklahoma and adjacent southern Kansas. By around 04/06Z, if not earlier, it now appears that destabilization beneath steepening lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates may yield a narrow corridor of mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg near the western edge of the moist plume. This probably will be aided by the leading edge of mid-level forcing for ascent and cooling, and contribute to the initiation of a narrow corridor of thunderstorm development across western into central Oklahoma and northwest Texas. In the presence of strengthening deep-layer wind fields and shear, a couple of supercells are possible before convection consolidates into an organizing line. This may be fairly quick, but still accompanied by the risk for severe hail, potentially damaging wind gusts and perhaps potential for a tornado or two. Stronger thunderstorm development probably will tend to develop south-southeastward into and across the I-35 corridor overnight, associated with the more moist/unstable inflow. ..Kerr.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA..ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A rapidly developing line of thunderstorms probably will be accompanied by a risk for severe hail, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two across parts of the southern Great Plains by Monday night. ...Discussion... In the wake of de-amplifying cold, mid/upper troughing shifting away from the Atlantic Seaboard, much of North America will be under the influence of split flow emanating from the Pacific through this period. This regime will remain characterized by relatively high mean mid-level heights, but with a couple of significant embedded short wave troughs. As one of these progresses across the eastern Pacific toward the Pacific coast, a more prominent downstream trough appears likely to cross the southern Rockies into the central and southern Great Plains by late Monday night. The lead trough likely will be comprised of at least a couple of notable smaller-scale perturbations, and the details concerning its evolution and motion have been varied in the model output. Spread remains within the latest model runs, but there appears better consensus concerning impacts on convective potential. Associated large-scale forcing for ascent is forecast to support strong surface cyclogenesis within deepening lee surface troughing, across parts of eastern Colorado into western Kansas late Monday through Monday night. This likely will be accompanied by intensifying southerly low-level wind fields (including 40-50+ kt around 850 mb) across much of the southern and central Great Plains through lower Missouri Valley, and a gradual increase in moisture off a still modifying boundary layer over the western Gulf Basin. ...Southern Great Plains... By Monday evening, models indicate that low-level moistening may include surface dew points increasing into/through the lower to mid 60s F in a plume across central Texas through much of central Oklahoma and adjacent southern Kansas. By around 04/06Z, if not earlier, it now appears that destabilization beneath steepening lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates may yield a narrow corridor of mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg near the western edge of the moist plume. This probably will be aided by the leading edge of mid-level forcing for ascent and cooling, and contribute to the initiation of a narrow corridor of thunderstorm development across western into central Oklahoma and northwest Texas. In the presence of strengthening deep-layer wind fields and shear, a couple of supercells are possible before convection consolidates into an organizing line. This may be fairly quick, but still accompanied by the risk for severe hail, potentially damaging wind gusts and perhaps potential for a tornado or two. Stronger thunderstorm development probably will tend to develop south-southeastward into and across the I-35 corridor overnight, associated with the more moist/unstable inflow. ..Kerr.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA..ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A rapidly developing line of thunderstorms probably will be accompanied by a risk for severe hail, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two across parts of the southern Great Plains by Monday night. ...Discussion... In the wake of de-amplifying cold, mid/upper troughing shifting away from the Atlantic Seaboard, much of North America will be under the influence of split flow emanating from the Pacific through this period. This regime will remain characterized by relatively high mean mid-level heights, but with a couple of significant embedded short wave troughs. As one of these progresses across the eastern Pacific toward the Pacific coast, a more prominent downstream trough appears likely to cross the southern Rockies into the central and southern Great Plains by late Monday night. The lead trough likely will be comprised of at least a couple of notable smaller-scale perturbations, and the details concerning its evolution and motion have been varied in the model output. Spread remains within the latest model runs, but there appears better consensus concerning impacts on convective potential. Associated large-scale forcing for ascent is forecast to support strong surface cyclogenesis within deepening lee surface troughing, across parts of eastern Colorado into western Kansas late Monday through Monday night. This likely will be accompanied by intensifying southerly low-level wind fields (including 40-50+ kt around 850 mb) across much of the southern and central Great Plains through lower Missouri Valley, and a gradual increase in moisture off a still modifying boundary layer over the western Gulf Basin. ...Southern Great Plains... By Monday evening, models indicate that low-level moistening may include surface dew points increasing into/through the lower to mid 60s F in a plume across central Texas through much of central Oklahoma and adjacent southern Kansas. By around 04/06Z, if not earlier, it now appears that destabilization beneath steepening lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates may yield a narrow corridor of mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg near the western edge of the moist plume. This probably will be aided by the leading edge of mid-level forcing for ascent and cooling, and contribute to the initiation of a narrow corridor of thunderstorm development across western into central Oklahoma and northwest Texas. In the presence of strengthening deep-layer wind fields and shear, a couple of supercells are possible before convection consolidates into an organizing line. This may be fairly quick, but still accompanied by the risk for severe hail, potentially damaging wind gusts and perhaps potential for a tornado or two. Stronger thunderstorm development probably will tend to develop south-southeastward into and across the I-35 corridor overnight, associated with the more moist/unstable inflow. ..Kerr.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA..ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A rapidly developing line of thunderstorms probably will be accompanied by a risk for severe hail, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two across parts of the southern Great Plains by Monday night. ...Discussion... In the wake of de-amplifying cold, mid/upper troughing shifting away from the Atlantic Seaboard, much of North America will be under the influence of split flow emanating from the Pacific through this period. This regime will remain characterized by relatively high mean mid-level heights, but with a couple of significant embedded short wave troughs. As one of these progresses across the eastern Pacific toward the Pacific coast, a more prominent downstream trough appears likely to cross the southern Rockies into the central and southern Great Plains by late Monday night. The lead trough likely will be comprised of at least a couple of notable smaller-scale perturbations, and the details concerning its evolution and motion have been varied in the model output. Spread remains within the latest model runs, but there appears better consensus concerning impacts on convective potential. Associated large-scale forcing for ascent is forecast to support strong surface cyclogenesis within deepening lee surface troughing, across parts of eastern Colorado into western Kansas late Monday through Monday night. This likely will be accompanied by intensifying southerly low-level wind fields (including 40-50+ kt around 850 mb) across much of the southern and central Great Plains through lower Missouri Valley, and a gradual increase in moisture off a still modifying boundary layer over the western Gulf Basin. ...Southern Great Plains... By Monday evening, models indicate that low-level moistening may include surface dew points increasing into/through the lower to mid 60s F in a plume across central Texas through much of central Oklahoma and adjacent southern Kansas. By around 04/06Z, if not earlier, it now appears that destabilization beneath steepening lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates may yield a narrow corridor of mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg near the western edge of the moist plume. This probably will be aided by the leading edge of mid-level forcing for ascent and cooling, and contribute to the initiation of a narrow corridor of thunderstorm development across western into central Oklahoma and northwest Texas. In the presence of strengthening deep-layer wind fields and shear, a couple of supercells are possible before convection consolidates into an organizing line. This may be fairly quick, but still accompanied by the risk for severe hail, potentially damaging wind gusts and perhaps potential for a tornado or two. Stronger thunderstorm development probably will tend to develop south-southeastward into and across the I-35 corridor overnight, associated with the more moist/unstable inflow. ..Kerr.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from western North Texas into western Oklahoma this afternoon and early evening. Large hail and strong/marginally severe winds, and a couple tornadoes are the primary hazards. ...OK/TX... A compact upper low and attendant shortwave trough will shift east from NM into the southern Plains this afternoon/evening, before weakening as it evolves toward the Lower MS Valley by Monday morning. An 80 to 100 kt 500 mb jet will overspread parts of northwest TX on the southern periphery of the upper low, with the left exit region of the jet streak favorably oriented over the southwest OK vicinity. Forecast guidance has continued to creep southward with the position of the upper low/trough and jet streak. As a result, the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk as been removed from southwest KS. At the surface, a weak low will develop eastward from eastern NM through the TX Panhandle and far western OK through evening. Strong southerly low-level flow will result in some northward transport of Gulf moisture, but this moisture will likely remain modest. Forecast guidance has trended toward dewpoints in the low to mid 50s F over the last few model cycles. A potential boost in low-level moisture may be tied to expected rain/elevated thunderstorms arcing across the region during the morning into early afternoon. However, this precipitation and associated cloudiness also will prevent stronger diurnal heating. Strong vertical wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings across the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK. Enlarged, looping low-level hodographs are expected, with low-topped supercells possibly developing by 20-22z. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to be quite steep, with 500 mb temperatures around -20 C, supporting MLCAPE up to 500-750 J/kg. Warming above 500 mb and backing midlevel winds above 700 mb will limit longevity of deeper, organized updrafts. However, strong ascent and forecast 3 km MLCAPE values approaching 100-125 J/kg amid favorable low-level shear suggests any stronger storms may be capable of producing brief tornadoes. Additionally, given steep midlevel lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft, and a sufficient elevated instability, isolated large hail may also occur. Sporadic strong gusts approaching 50 mph will also be possible as storms track across western north TX and western OK. The severe risk is expected to remain fairly limited in space and time and is a bit conditional on quality of low-level moisture. Nevertheless, a relatively higher probability for a couple of tornadoes and large hail exists across the far eastern TX Panhandle into southwest OK, and a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been introduced. ..Leitman/Squitieri.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from western North Texas into western Oklahoma this afternoon and early evening. Large hail and strong/marginally severe winds, and a couple tornadoes are the primary hazards. ...OK/TX... A compact upper low and attendant shortwave trough will shift east from NM into the southern Plains this afternoon/evening, before weakening as it evolves toward the Lower MS Valley by Monday morning. An 80 to 100 kt 500 mb jet will overspread parts of northwest TX on the southern periphery of the upper low, with the left exit region of the jet streak favorably oriented over the southwest OK vicinity. Forecast guidance has continued to creep southward with the position of the upper low/trough and jet streak. As a result, the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk as been removed from southwest KS. At the surface, a weak low will develop eastward from eastern NM through the TX Panhandle and far western OK through evening. Strong southerly low-level flow will result in some northward transport of Gulf moisture, but this moisture will likely remain modest. Forecast guidance has trended toward dewpoints in the low to mid 50s F over the last few model cycles. A potential boost in low-level moisture may be tied to expected rain/elevated thunderstorms arcing across the region during the morning into early afternoon. However, this precipitation and associated cloudiness also will prevent stronger diurnal heating. Strong vertical wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings across the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK. Enlarged, looping low-level hodographs are expected, with low-topped supercells possibly developing by 20-22z. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to be quite steep, with 500 mb temperatures around -20 C, supporting MLCAPE up to 500-750 J/kg. Warming above 500 mb and backing midlevel winds above 700 mb will limit longevity of deeper, organized updrafts. However, strong ascent and forecast 3 km MLCAPE values approaching 100-125 J/kg amid favorable low-level shear suggests any stronger storms may be capable of producing brief tornadoes. Additionally, given steep midlevel lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft, and a sufficient elevated instability, isolated large hail may also occur. Sporadic strong gusts approaching 50 mph will also be possible as storms track across western north TX and western OK. The severe risk is expected to remain fairly limited in space and time and is a bit conditional on quality of low-level moisture. Nevertheless, a relatively higher probability for a couple of tornadoes and large hail exists across the far eastern TX Panhandle into southwest OK, and a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been introduced. ..Leitman/Squitieri.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from western North Texas into western Oklahoma this afternoon and early evening. Large hail and strong/marginally severe winds, and a couple tornadoes are the primary hazards. ...OK/TX... A compact upper low and attendant shortwave trough will shift east from NM into the southern Plains this afternoon/evening, before weakening as it evolves toward the Lower MS Valley by Monday morning. An 80 to 100 kt 500 mb jet will overspread parts of northwest TX on the southern periphery of the upper low, with the left exit region of the jet streak favorably oriented over the southwest OK vicinity. Forecast guidance has continued to creep southward with the position of the upper low/trough and jet streak. As a result, the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk as been removed from southwest KS. At the surface, a weak low will develop eastward from eastern NM through the TX Panhandle and far western OK through evening. Strong southerly low-level flow will result in some northward transport of Gulf moisture, but this moisture will likely remain modest. Forecast guidance has trended toward dewpoints in the low to mid 50s F over the last few model cycles. A potential boost in low-level moisture may be tied to expected rain/elevated thunderstorms arcing across the region during the morning into early afternoon. However, this precipitation and associated cloudiness also will prevent stronger diurnal heating. Strong vertical wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings across the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK. Enlarged, looping low-level hodographs are expected, with low-topped supercells possibly developing by 20-22z. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to be quite steep, with 500 mb temperatures around -20 C, supporting MLCAPE up to 500-750 J/kg. Warming above 500 mb and backing midlevel winds above 700 mb will limit longevity of deeper, organized updrafts. However, strong ascent and forecast 3 km MLCAPE values approaching 100-125 J/kg amid favorable low-level shear suggests any stronger storms may be capable of producing brief tornadoes. Additionally, given steep midlevel lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft, and a sufficient elevated instability, isolated large hail may also occur. Sporadic strong gusts approaching 50 mph will also be possible as storms track across western north TX and western OK. The severe risk is expected to remain fairly limited in space and time and is a bit conditional on quality of low-level moisture. Nevertheless, a relatively higher probability for a couple of tornadoes and large hail exists across the far eastern TX Panhandle into southwest OK, and a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been introduced. ..Leitman/Squitieri.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from western North Texas into western Oklahoma this afternoon and early evening. Large hail and strong/marginally severe winds, and a couple tornadoes are the primary hazards. ...OK/TX... A compact upper low and attendant shortwave trough will shift east from NM into the southern Plains this afternoon/evening, before weakening as it evolves toward the Lower MS Valley by Monday morning. An 80 to 100 kt 500 mb jet will overspread parts of northwest TX on the southern periphery of the upper low, with the left exit region of the jet streak favorably oriented over the southwest OK vicinity. Forecast guidance has continued to creep southward with the position of the upper low/trough and jet streak. As a result, the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk as been removed from southwest KS. At the surface, a weak low will develop eastward from eastern NM through the TX Panhandle and far western OK through evening. Strong southerly low-level flow will result in some northward transport of Gulf moisture, but this moisture will likely remain modest. Forecast guidance has trended toward dewpoints in the low to mid 50s F over the last few model cycles. A potential boost in low-level moisture may be tied to expected rain/elevated thunderstorms arcing across the region during the morning into early afternoon. However, this precipitation and associated cloudiness also will prevent stronger diurnal heating. Strong vertical wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings across the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK. Enlarged, looping low-level hodographs are expected, with low-topped supercells possibly developing by 20-22z. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to be quite steep, with 500 mb temperatures around -20 C, supporting MLCAPE up to 500-750 J/kg. Warming above 500 mb and backing midlevel winds above 700 mb will limit longevity of deeper, organized updrafts. However, strong ascent and forecast 3 km MLCAPE values approaching 100-125 J/kg amid favorable low-level shear suggests any stronger storms may be capable of producing brief tornadoes. Additionally, given steep midlevel lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft, and a sufficient elevated instability, isolated large hail may also occur. Sporadic strong gusts approaching 50 mph will also be possible as storms track across western north TX and western OK. The severe risk is expected to remain fairly limited in space and time and is a bit conditional on quality of low-level moisture. Nevertheless, a relatively higher probability for a couple of tornadoes and large hail exists across the far eastern TX Panhandle into southwest OK, and a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been introduced. ..Leitman/Squitieri.. 03/02/2025 Read more