Aggregator

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis... A dearth of boundary-layer moisture and strong surface high pressure east of the Rockies will preclude thunderstorm potential for the remainder of this evening/overnight. ..Leitman.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis... A dearth of boundary-layer moisture and strong surface high pressure east of the Rockies will preclude thunderstorm potential for the remainder of this evening/overnight. ..Leitman.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis... A dearth of boundary-layer moisture and strong surface high pressure east of the Rockies will preclude thunderstorm potential for the remainder of this evening/overnight. ..Leitman.. 03/02/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Mar 1 22:29:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Mar 1 22:29:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain very active through much of next week with a progressive pattern resulting in a series of strong mid/upper-level troughs moving across the southern U.S. Meanwhile, the persistent dry conditions across the southern High Plains will continue to promote further drying of fuels, with critically dry fuels expected over a broad area. Multiple days of very strong winds, very low minimum RH values, and critically receptive fuels are expected. Higher-end critical conditions - with significant fire potential - appear probable on Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. ...Southern Plains: Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 7/Friday... A large mid-level trough is forecast to rapidly deepen over the Four Corners on Day 3/Monday as strong mid-level flow overspreads a warm and dry low-level airmass across the Southern Plains. In response, an area of rapidly developing lee cyclogenesis is expected across portions of CO/KS, which will tighten the surface pressure gradient. The combination of very strong surface winds, very low minimum RH, and critically receptive fuels (including locally heavy herbaceous fuel loading) will promote higher-end and potentially significant fire weather conditions - especially across portions of New Mexico and far western Texas. Higher-end critical fire weather conditions (with significant fire weather potential) will also be possible Day 4/Tuesday across portions of Texas as the aforementioned surface low moves eastward. The primary uncertainty remains the eastward extent of the fire weather threat, which may be modulated somewhat by wetting rainfall ahead of the system. After a brief break from large-scale fire weather conditions across the southern High Plains Day 5/Wednesday, fire weather conditions are forecast to return Day 6/Thursday through at least Day 7/Friday as another mid-level trough moves across the southern U.S. Enough run-to-run and inter-model consistency exists to introduce 40% probabilities for Critical conditions both Day 6/Thursday (in a dry return flow pattern) and Day 7/Friday (behind a dryline/frontal passage), where the most favorable overlap of strong winds, low RH, and receptive fuel is currently expected. ...Eastern US: Day 5/Wednesday - Day 6/Thursday... Local fire weather conditions are possible Day 5/Wednesday and Day 6/Thursday across portions of the Southeast U.S., as dry/breezy conditions occur behind a cold frontal passage. However, at this time, confidence for any critical fire weather risk is low due to precipitation potential ahead of the front perhaps reducing fuel receptiveness. ..Elliott.. 03/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain very active through much of next week with a progressive pattern resulting in a series of strong mid/upper-level troughs moving across the southern U.S. Meanwhile, the persistent dry conditions across the southern High Plains will continue to promote further drying of fuels, with critically dry fuels expected over a broad area. Multiple days of very strong winds, very low minimum RH values, and critically receptive fuels are expected. Higher-end critical conditions - with significant fire potential - appear probable on Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. ...Southern Plains: Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 7/Friday... A large mid-level trough is forecast to rapidly deepen over the Four Corners on Day 3/Monday as strong mid-level flow overspreads a warm and dry low-level airmass across the Southern Plains. In response, an area of rapidly developing lee cyclogenesis is expected across portions of CO/KS, which will tighten the surface pressure gradient. The combination of very strong surface winds, very low minimum RH, and critically receptive fuels (including locally heavy herbaceous fuel loading) will promote higher-end and potentially significant fire weather conditions - especially across portions of New Mexico and far western Texas. Higher-end critical fire weather conditions (with significant fire weather potential) will also be possible Day 4/Tuesday across portions of Texas as the aforementioned surface low moves eastward. The primary uncertainty remains the eastward extent of the fire weather threat, which may be modulated somewhat by wetting rainfall ahead of the system. After a brief break from large-scale fire weather conditions across the southern High Plains Day 5/Wednesday, fire weather conditions are forecast to return Day 6/Thursday through at least Day 7/Friday as another mid-level trough moves across the southern U.S. Enough run-to-run and inter-model consistency exists to introduce 40% probabilities for Critical conditions both Day 6/Thursday (in a dry return flow pattern) and Day 7/Friday (behind a dryline/frontal passage), where the most favorable overlap of strong winds, low RH, and receptive fuel is currently expected. ...Eastern US: Day 5/Wednesday - Day 6/Thursday... Local fire weather conditions are possible Day 5/Wednesday and Day 6/Thursday across portions of the Southeast U.S., as dry/breezy conditions occur behind a cold frontal passage. However, at this time, confidence for any critical fire weather risk is low due to precipitation potential ahead of the front perhaps reducing fuel receptiveness. ..Elliott.. 03/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain very active through much of next week with a progressive pattern resulting in a series of strong mid/upper-level troughs moving across the southern U.S. Meanwhile, the persistent dry conditions across the southern High Plains will continue to promote further drying of fuels, with critically dry fuels expected over a broad area. Multiple days of very strong winds, very low minimum RH values, and critically receptive fuels are expected. Higher-end critical conditions - with significant fire potential - appear probable on Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. ...Southern Plains: Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 7/Friday... A large mid-level trough is forecast to rapidly deepen over the Four Corners on Day 3/Monday as strong mid-level flow overspreads a warm and dry low-level airmass across the Southern Plains. In response, an area of rapidly developing lee cyclogenesis is expected across portions of CO/KS, which will tighten the surface pressure gradient. The combination of very strong surface winds, very low minimum RH, and critically receptive fuels (including locally heavy herbaceous fuel loading) will promote higher-end and potentially significant fire weather conditions - especially across portions of New Mexico and far western Texas. Higher-end critical fire weather conditions (with significant fire weather potential) will also be possible Day 4/Tuesday across portions of Texas as the aforementioned surface low moves eastward. The primary uncertainty remains the eastward extent of the fire weather threat, which may be modulated somewhat by wetting rainfall ahead of the system. After a brief break from large-scale fire weather conditions across the southern High Plains Day 5/Wednesday, fire weather conditions are forecast to return Day 6/Thursday through at least Day 7/Friday as another mid-level trough moves across the southern U.S. Enough run-to-run and inter-model consistency exists to introduce 40% probabilities for Critical conditions both Day 6/Thursday (in a dry return flow pattern) and Day 7/Friday (behind a dryline/frontal passage), where the most favorable overlap of strong winds, low RH, and receptive fuel is currently expected. ...Eastern US: Day 5/Wednesday - Day 6/Thursday... Local fire weather conditions are possible Day 5/Wednesday and Day 6/Thursday across portions of the Southeast U.S., as dry/breezy conditions occur behind a cold frontal passage. However, at this time, confidence for any critical fire weather risk is low due to precipitation potential ahead of the front perhaps reducing fuel receptiveness. ..Elliott.. 03/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain very active through much of next week with a progressive pattern resulting in a series of strong mid/upper-level troughs moving across the southern U.S. Meanwhile, the persistent dry conditions across the southern High Plains will continue to promote further drying of fuels, with critically dry fuels expected over a broad area. Multiple days of very strong winds, very low minimum RH values, and critically receptive fuels are expected. Higher-end critical conditions - with significant fire potential - appear probable on Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. ...Southern Plains: Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 7/Friday... A large mid-level trough is forecast to rapidly deepen over the Four Corners on Day 3/Monday as strong mid-level flow overspreads a warm and dry low-level airmass across the Southern Plains. In response, an area of rapidly developing lee cyclogenesis is expected across portions of CO/KS, which will tighten the surface pressure gradient. The combination of very strong surface winds, very low minimum RH, and critically receptive fuels (including locally heavy herbaceous fuel loading) will promote higher-end and potentially significant fire weather conditions - especially across portions of New Mexico and far western Texas. Higher-end critical fire weather conditions (with significant fire weather potential) will also be possible Day 4/Tuesday across portions of Texas as the aforementioned surface low moves eastward. The primary uncertainty remains the eastward extent of the fire weather threat, which may be modulated somewhat by wetting rainfall ahead of the system. After a brief break from large-scale fire weather conditions across the southern High Plains Day 5/Wednesday, fire weather conditions are forecast to return Day 6/Thursday through at least Day 7/Friday as another mid-level trough moves across the southern U.S. Enough run-to-run and inter-model consistency exists to introduce 40% probabilities for Critical conditions both Day 6/Thursday (in a dry return flow pattern) and Day 7/Friday (behind a dryline/frontal passage), where the most favorable overlap of strong winds, low RH, and receptive fuel is currently expected. ...Eastern US: Day 5/Wednesday - Day 6/Thursday... Local fire weather conditions are possible Day 5/Wednesday and Day 6/Thursday across portions of the Southeast U.S., as dry/breezy conditions occur behind a cold frontal passage. However, at this time, confidence for any critical fire weather risk is low due to precipitation potential ahead of the front perhaps reducing fuel receptiveness. ..Elliott.. 03/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain very active through much of next week with a progressive pattern resulting in a series of strong mid/upper-level troughs moving across the southern U.S. Meanwhile, the persistent dry conditions across the southern High Plains will continue to promote further drying of fuels, with critically dry fuels expected over a broad area. Multiple days of very strong winds, very low minimum RH values, and critically receptive fuels are expected. Higher-end critical conditions - with significant fire potential - appear probable on Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. ...Southern Plains: Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 7/Friday... A large mid-level trough is forecast to rapidly deepen over the Four Corners on Day 3/Monday as strong mid-level flow overspreads a warm and dry low-level airmass across the Southern Plains. In response, an area of rapidly developing lee cyclogenesis is expected across portions of CO/KS, which will tighten the surface pressure gradient. The combination of very strong surface winds, very low minimum RH, and critically receptive fuels (including locally heavy herbaceous fuel loading) will promote higher-end and potentially significant fire weather conditions - especially across portions of New Mexico and far western Texas. Higher-end critical fire weather conditions (with significant fire weather potential) will also be possible Day 4/Tuesday across portions of Texas as the aforementioned surface low moves eastward. The primary uncertainty remains the eastward extent of the fire weather threat, which may be modulated somewhat by wetting rainfall ahead of the system. After a brief break from large-scale fire weather conditions across the southern High Plains Day 5/Wednesday, fire weather conditions are forecast to return Day 6/Thursday through at least Day 7/Friday as another mid-level trough moves across the southern U.S. Enough run-to-run and inter-model consistency exists to introduce 40% probabilities for Critical conditions both Day 6/Thursday (in a dry return flow pattern) and Day 7/Friday (behind a dryline/frontal passage), where the most favorable overlap of strong winds, low RH, and receptive fuel is currently expected. ...Eastern US: Day 5/Wednesday - Day 6/Thursday... Local fire weather conditions are possible Day 5/Wednesday and Day 6/Thursday across portions of the Southeast U.S., as dry/breezy conditions occur behind a cold frontal passage. However, at this time, confidence for any critical fire weather risk is low due to precipitation potential ahead of the front perhaps reducing fuel receptiveness. ..Elliott.. 03/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain very active through much of next week with a progressive pattern resulting in a series of strong mid/upper-level troughs moving across the southern U.S. Meanwhile, the persistent dry conditions across the southern High Plains will continue to promote further drying of fuels, with critically dry fuels expected over a broad area. Multiple days of very strong winds, very low minimum RH values, and critically receptive fuels are expected. Higher-end critical conditions - with significant fire potential - appear probable on Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. ...Southern Plains: Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 7/Friday... A large mid-level trough is forecast to rapidly deepen over the Four Corners on Day 3/Monday as strong mid-level flow overspreads a warm and dry low-level airmass across the Southern Plains. In response, an area of rapidly developing lee cyclogenesis is expected across portions of CO/KS, which will tighten the surface pressure gradient. The combination of very strong surface winds, very low minimum RH, and critically receptive fuels (including locally heavy herbaceous fuel loading) will promote higher-end and potentially significant fire weather conditions - especially across portions of New Mexico and far western Texas. Higher-end critical fire weather conditions (with significant fire weather potential) will also be possible Day 4/Tuesday across portions of Texas as the aforementioned surface low moves eastward. The primary uncertainty remains the eastward extent of the fire weather threat, which may be modulated somewhat by wetting rainfall ahead of the system. After a brief break from large-scale fire weather conditions across the southern High Plains Day 5/Wednesday, fire weather conditions are forecast to return Day 6/Thursday through at least Day 7/Friday as another mid-level trough moves across the southern U.S. Enough run-to-run and inter-model consistency exists to introduce 40% probabilities for Critical conditions both Day 6/Thursday (in a dry return flow pattern) and Day 7/Friday (behind a dryline/frontal passage), where the most favorable overlap of strong winds, low RH, and receptive fuel is currently expected. ...Eastern US: Day 5/Wednesday - Day 6/Thursday... Local fire weather conditions are possible Day 5/Wednesday and Day 6/Thursday across portions of the Southeast U.S., as dry/breezy conditions occur behind a cold frontal passage. However, at this time, confidence for any critical fire weather risk is low due to precipitation potential ahead of the front perhaps reducing fuel receptiveness. ..Elliott.. 03/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain very active through much of next week with a progressive pattern resulting in a series of strong mid/upper-level troughs moving across the southern U.S. Meanwhile, the persistent dry conditions across the southern High Plains will continue to promote further drying of fuels, with critically dry fuels expected over a broad area. Multiple days of very strong winds, very low minimum RH values, and critically receptive fuels are expected. Higher-end critical conditions - with significant fire potential - appear probable on Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. ...Southern Plains: Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 7/Friday... A large mid-level trough is forecast to rapidly deepen over the Four Corners on Day 3/Monday as strong mid-level flow overspreads a warm and dry low-level airmass across the Southern Plains. In response, an area of rapidly developing lee cyclogenesis is expected across portions of CO/KS, which will tighten the surface pressure gradient. The combination of very strong surface winds, very low minimum RH, and critically receptive fuels (including locally heavy herbaceous fuel loading) will promote higher-end and potentially significant fire weather conditions - especially across portions of New Mexico and far western Texas. Higher-end critical fire weather conditions (with significant fire weather potential) will also be possible Day 4/Tuesday across portions of Texas as the aforementioned surface low moves eastward. The primary uncertainty remains the eastward extent of the fire weather threat, which may be modulated somewhat by wetting rainfall ahead of the system. After a brief break from large-scale fire weather conditions across the southern High Plains Day 5/Wednesday, fire weather conditions are forecast to return Day 6/Thursday through at least Day 7/Friday as another mid-level trough moves across the southern U.S. Enough run-to-run and inter-model consistency exists to introduce 40% probabilities for Critical conditions both Day 6/Thursday (in a dry return flow pattern) and Day 7/Friday (behind a dryline/frontal passage), where the most favorable overlap of strong winds, low RH, and receptive fuel is currently expected. ...Eastern US: Day 5/Wednesday - Day 6/Thursday... Local fire weather conditions are possible Day 5/Wednesday and Day 6/Thursday across portions of the Southeast U.S., as dry/breezy conditions occur behind a cold frontal passage. However, at this time, confidence for any critical fire weather risk is low due to precipitation potential ahead of the front perhaps reducing fuel receptiveness. ..Elliott.. 03/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the prior forecast. Dry and stable conditions should limit thunderstorm potential over much of the US. An isolated lightning flash could occur near coastal northern CA but coverage should remain below 10%. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 03/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... 12Z observed soundings, recent surface observations, and satellite-based precipitable water estimates across AZ show very little moisture present this morning. A closed upper low over southern CA and northern Baja California will continue to advance eastward across the Southwest through the period. While strong large-scale ascent and cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this feature, nearly all guidance shows a lack of even weak instability until later this evening, mainly on the subsident/backside of the upper low. While showers should eventually move across parts of AZ late this evening and overnight, the potential for thunderstorms appears less than 10% due to the very limited low-level moisture and instability forecast. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected across the remainder of the CONUS through tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the prior forecast. Dry and stable conditions should limit thunderstorm potential over much of the US. An isolated lightning flash could occur near coastal northern CA but coverage should remain below 10%. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 03/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... 12Z observed soundings, recent surface observations, and satellite-based precipitable water estimates across AZ show very little moisture present this morning. A closed upper low over southern CA and northern Baja California will continue to advance eastward across the Southwest through the period. While strong large-scale ascent and cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this feature, nearly all guidance shows a lack of even weak instability until later this evening, mainly on the subsident/backside of the upper low. While showers should eventually move across parts of AZ late this evening and overnight, the potential for thunderstorms appears less than 10% due to the very limited low-level moisture and instability forecast. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected across the remainder of the CONUS through tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the prior forecast. Dry and stable conditions should limit thunderstorm potential over much of the US. An isolated lightning flash could occur near coastal northern CA but coverage should remain below 10%. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 03/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... 12Z observed soundings, recent surface observations, and satellite-based precipitable water estimates across AZ show very little moisture present this morning. A closed upper low over southern CA and northern Baja California will continue to advance eastward across the Southwest through the period. While strong large-scale ascent and cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this feature, nearly all guidance shows a lack of even weak instability until later this evening, mainly on the subsident/backside of the upper low. While showers should eventually move across parts of AZ late this evening and overnight, the potential for thunderstorms appears less than 10% due to the very limited low-level moisture and instability forecast. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected across the remainder of the CONUS through tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the prior forecast. Dry and stable conditions should limit thunderstorm potential over much of the US. An isolated lightning flash could occur near coastal northern CA but coverage should remain below 10%. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 03/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... 12Z observed soundings, recent surface observations, and satellite-based precipitable water estimates across AZ show very little moisture present this morning. A closed upper low over southern CA and northern Baja California will continue to advance eastward across the Southwest through the period. While strong large-scale ascent and cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this feature, nearly all guidance shows a lack of even weak instability until later this evening, mainly on the subsident/backside of the upper low. While showers should eventually move across parts of AZ late this evening and overnight, the potential for thunderstorms appears less than 10% due to the very limited low-level moisture and instability forecast. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected across the remainder of the CONUS through tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the prior forecast. Dry and stable conditions should limit thunderstorm potential over much of the US. An isolated lightning flash could occur near coastal northern CA but coverage should remain below 10%. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 03/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... 12Z observed soundings, recent surface observations, and satellite-based precipitable water estimates across AZ show very little moisture present this morning. A closed upper low over southern CA and northern Baja California will continue to advance eastward across the Southwest through the period. While strong large-scale ascent and cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this feature, nearly all guidance shows a lack of even weak instability until later this evening, mainly on the subsident/backside of the upper low. While showers should eventually move across parts of AZ late this evening and overnight, the potential for thunderstorms appears less than 10% due to the very limited low-level moisture and instability forecast. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected across the remainder of the CONUS through tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the prior forecast. Dry and stable conditions should limit thunderstorm potential over much of the US. An isolated lightning flash could occur near coastal northern CA but coverage should remain below 10%. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 03/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... 12Z observed soundings, recent surface observations, and satellite-based precipitable water estimates across AZ show very little moisture present this morning. A closed upper low over southern CA and northern Baja California will continue to advance eastward across the Southwest through the period. While strong large-scale ascent and cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this feature, nearly all guidance shows a lack of even weak instability until later this evening, mainly on the subsident/backside of the upper low. While showers should eventually move across parts of AZ late this evening and overnight, the potential for thunderstorms appears less than 10% due to the very limited low-level moisture and instability forecast. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected across the remainder of the CONUS through tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the prior forecast. Dry and stable conditions should limit thunderstorm potential over much of the US. An isolated lightning flash could occur near coastal northern CA but coverage should remain below 10%. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 03/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... 12Z observed soundings, recent surface observations, and satellite-based precipitable water estimates across AZ show very little moisture present this morning. A closed upper low over southern CA and northern Baja California will continue to advance eastward across the Southwest through the period. While strong large-scale ascent and cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this feature, nearly all guidance shows a lack of even weak instability until later this evening, mainly on the subsident/backside of the upper low. While showers should eventually move across parts of AZ late this evening and overnight, the potential for thunderstorms appears less than 10% due to the very limited low-level moisture and instability forecast. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected across the remainder of the CONUS through tonight. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from southeast Kansas into the Edwards Plateau late Monday night. ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging aloft will be present across the southern Plains in advance of a eastward moving and intensifying upper-level trough. The trough, initially within the Great Basin, will eject into the central/southern Plains late Monday into Tuesday morning. A closed upper low will develop into the central High Plains with a strong mid-level jet stretching into central Texas, curving westward into the Trans-Pecos. Strong low-level wind fields will develop late Monday afternoon and through the evening/overnight. At least low 60s F dewpoints are forecast to reach into parts of central/eastern Oklahoma as this occurs. ...Southeast Kansas into southern Plains... Storm development is most likely to occur mid/late Monday night. Model guidance still shows some variability in the westward/northward progress of greater low-level moisture. Severe probabilities have been adjusted westward to account for trends in the ECMWF showing storm initiation west of the I-35 corridor. Deep-layer shear will be strong, but it will also be largely parallel to the surface trough/front. That said, confidence is reasonably high in a linear storm mode. The primary uncertainties will be the exact degree of surface based destabilization and where storms will initiate/become severe. Forecast soundings do show potential for near-surface to surface based storms, however. Strong low-level shear will certainly be conditionally favorable for damaging winds and embedded circulations/QLCS tornadoes. At present time the most conditionally favorable environment will exist somewhere from central/eastern Oklahoma into parts of North Texas. Into southeast Kansas, uncertainty in destabilization becomes greater. However, some severe risk may develop ahead of the surface low in south-central Kansas. Farther south, into the Edwards Plateau, initiation along the Pacific front becomes less certain given some warmer air aloft. Given at least a weak signal in the ECMWF for thunderstorms, probabilities have been adjusted southwestward to account for this potential. ..Wendt.. 03/01/2025 Read more