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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0610 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from western North Texas into western Oklahoma this afternoon and early evening. Large hail and strong/marginally severe winds, and a couple tornadoes are the primary hazards. ...Western OK and Vicinity... a compact and progressive upper low is tracking eastward this morning across southern NM, along with an accompanying 90-100 knot mid-level jet max. Large scale upper divergence and lift ahead of the low will likely result in scattered thunderstorm activity by mid-morning across west TX. This activity will spread eastward through the day into western OK, with a low-end threat of hail in the strongest storms. In the wake of the morning activity, relatively strong heating is expected to the east of the Caprock, where temperatures will climb well into the 70s behind the dryline. A narrow corridor of modest CAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) should develop along the dryline during the peak heating period. Most CAM solutions suggest isolated convective initiation by 21-23z as the primary upper jet max noses into the region. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear, favorable for supercells capable of large hail. Low-level shear profiles will be quite strong, but winds in the 3-5km layer exhibit a veer-back-veer pattern that may disrupt discrete storm modes. Nevertheless, a couple tornadoes are also possible. The primary severe threat is expected to remain focused across western OK and northwest TX where the best thermodynamic parameters are forecast. However, storms will spread eastward through the evening into central/southern OK and north TX with a continued isolated severe hail/wind threat. ..Hart/Grams.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0610 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from western North Texas into western Oklahoma this afternoon and early evening. Large hail and strong/marginally severe winds, and a couple tornadoes are the primary hazards. ...Western OK and Vicinity... a compact and progressive upper low is tracking eastward this morning across southern NM, along with an accompanying 90-100 knot mid-level jet max. Large scale upper divergence and lift ahead of the low will likely result in scattered thunderstorm activity by mid-morning across west TX. This activity will spread eastward through the day into western OK, with a low-end threat of hail in the strongest storms. In the wake of the morning activity, relatively strong heating is expected to the east of the Caprock, where temperatures will climb well into the 70s behind the dryline. A narrow corridor of modest CAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) should develop along the dryline during the peak heating period. Most CAM solutions suggest isolated convective initiation by 21-23z as the primary upper jet max noses into the region. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear, favorable for supercells capable of large hail. Low-level shear profiles will be quite strong, but winds in the 3-5km layer exhibit a veer-back-veer pattern that may disrupt discrete storm modes. Nevertheless, a couple tornadoes are also possible. The primary severe threat is expected to remain focused across western OK and northwest TX where the best thermodynamic parameters are forecast. However, storms will spread eastward through the evening into central/southern OK and north TX with a continued isolated severe hail/wind threat. ..Hart/Grams.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0610 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from western North Texas into western Oklahoma this afternoon and early evening. Large hail and strong/marginally severe winds, and a couple tornadoes are the primary hazards. ...Western OK and Vicinity... a compact and progressive upper low is tracking eastward this morning across southern NM, along with an accompanying 90-100 knot mid-level jet max. Large scale upper divergence and lift ahead of the low will likely result in scattered thunderstorm activity by mid-morning across west TX. This activity will spread eastward through the day into western OK, with a low-end threat of hail in the strongest storms. In the wake of the morning activity, relatively strong heating is expected to the east of the Caprock, where temperatures will climb well into the 70s behind the dryline. A narrow corridor of modest CAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) should develop along the dryline during the peak heating period. Most CAM solutions suggest isolated convective initiation by 21-23z as the primary upper jet max noses into the region. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear, favorable for supercells capable of large hail. Low-level shear profiles will be quite strong, but winds in the 3-5km layer exhibit a veer-back-veer pattern that may disrupt discrete storm modes. Nevertheless, a couple tornadoes are also possible. The primary severe threat is expected to remain focused across western OK and northwest TX where the best thermodynamic parameters are forecast. However, storms will spread eastward through the evening into central/southern OK and north TX with a continued isolated severe hail/wind threat. ..Hart/Grams.. 03/02/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... As the center of a broad and deep surface cyclone migrates across the lower Great Lakes region into Quebec Wednesday through Wednesday night, strong deep-layer mean wind fields will spread east of the Appalachians through the Atlantic Seaboard. This may include one south to south-southwesterly core of 50-80 kt winds in the 850-500 mb layer, coincident with a weakening convective band, remnant from storms developing on Tuesday across the lower Mississippi Valley. Destabilization with the approach of this activity may not be sufficient to support substantive re-intensification as it overspreads southern/middle Atlantic coastal areas during the day Wednesday, but it might still be accompanied by locally strong to severe wind gusts. In its wake, it also might not be out of the question that destabilization beneath the mid-level dry slot could become supportive of vigorous thunderstorm development during the afternoon to the east of the Blue Ridge. However, the extent of this potential remains unclear at this time. In the wake of the cyclone, much of the nation, from the Pacific coast into Great Plains and Southeast, appears likely to remain under the influence of one prominent belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific. There is some signal in the medium-range guidance that an embedded short wave trough might support a developing frontal wave across the eastern Gulf Coast into southern Atlantic Seaboard vicinity late this coming week into next weekend. However, it is not yet clear that this will be strong enough to support an appreciable risk for severe storms. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... As the center of a broad and deep surface cyclone migrates across the lower Great Lakes region into Quebec Wednesday through Wednesday night, strong deep-layer mean wind fields will spread east of the Appalachians through the Atlantic Seaboard. This may include one south to south-southwesterly core of 50-80 kt winds in the 850-500 mb layer, coincident with a weakening convective band, remnant from storms developing on Tuesday across the lower Mississippi Valley. Destabilization with the approach of this activity may not be sufficient to support substantive re-intensification as it overspreads southern/middle Atlantic coastal areas during the day Wednesday, but it might still be accompanied by locally strong to severe wind gusts. In its wake, it also might not be out of the question that destabilization beneath the mid-level dry slot could become supportive of vigorous thunderstorm development during the afternoon to the east of the Blue Ridge. However, the extent of this potential remains unclear at this time. In the wake of the cyclone, much of the nation, from the Pacific coast into Great Plains and Southeast, appears likely to remain under the influence of one prominent belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific. There is some signal in the medium-range guidance that an embedded short wave trough might support a developing frontal wave across the eastern Gulf Coast into southern Atlantic Seaboard vicinity late this coming week into next weekend. However, it is not yet clear that this will be strong enough to support an appreciable risk for severe storms. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... As the center of a broad and deep surface cyclone migrates across the lower Great Lakes region into Quebec Wednesday through Wednesday night, strong deep-layer mean wind fields will spread east of the Appalachians through the Atlantic Seaboard. This may include one south to south-southwesterly core of 50-80 kt winds in the 850-500 mb layer, coincident with a weakening convective band, remnant from storms developing on Tuesday across the lower Mississippi Valley. Destabilization with the approach of this activity may not be sufficient to support substantive re-intensification as it overspreads southern/middle Atlantic coastal areas during the day Wednesday, but it might still be accompanied by locally strong to severe wind gusts. In its wake, it also might not be out of the question that destabilization beneath the mid-level dry slot could become supportive of vigorous thunderstorm development during the afternoon to the east of the Blue Ridge. However, the extent of this potential remains unclear at this time. In the wake of the cyclone, much of the nation, from the Pacific coast into Great Plains and Southeast, appears likely to remain under the influence of one prominent belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific. There is some signal in the medium-range guidance that an embedded short wave trough might support a developing frontal wave across the eastern Gulf Coast into southern Atlantic Seaboard vicinity late this coming week into next weekend. However, it is not yet clear that this will be strong enough to support an appreciable risk for severe storms. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... As the center of a broad and deep surface cyclone migrates across the lower Great Lakes region into Quebec Wednesday through Wednesday night, strong deep-layer mean wind fields will spread east of the Appalachians through the Atlantic Seaboard. This may include one south to south-southwesterly core of 50-80 kt winds in the 850-500 mb layer, coincident with a weakening convective band, remnant from storms developing on Tuesday across the lower Mississippi Valley. Destabilization with the approach of this activity may not be sufficient to support substantive re-intensification as it overspreads southern/middle Atlantic coastal areas during the day Wednesday, but it might still be accompanied by locally strong to severe wind gusts. In its wake, it also might not be out of the question that destabilization beneath the mid-level dry slot could become supportive of vigorous thunderstorm development during the afternoon to the east of the Blue Ridge. However, the extent of this potential remains unclear at this time. In the wake of the cyclone, much of the nation, from the Pacific coast into Great Plains and Southeast, appears likely to remain under the influence of one prominent belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific. There is some signal in the medium-range guidance that an embedded short wave trough might support a developing frontal wave across the eastern Gulf Coast into southern Atlantic Seaboard vicinity late this coming week into next weekend. However, it is not yet clear that this will be strong enough to support an appreciable risk for severe storms. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... As the center of a broad and deep surface cyclone migrates across the lower Great Lakes region into Quebec Wednesday through Wednesday night, strong deep-layer mean wind fields will spread east of the Appalachians through the Atlantic Seaboard. This may include one south to south-southwesterly core of 50-80 kt winds in the 850-500 mb layer, coincident with a weakening convective band, remnant from storms developing on Tuesday across the lower Mississippi Valley. Destabilization with the approach of this activity may not be sufficient to support substantive re-intensification as it overspreads southern/middle Atlantic coastal areas during the day Wednesday, but it might still be accompanied by locally strong to severe wind gusts. In its wake, it also might not be out of the question that destabilization beneath the mid-level dry slot could become supportive of vigorous thunderstorm development during the afternoon to the east of the Blue Ridge. However, the extent of this potential remains unclear at this time. In the wake of the cyclone, much of the nation, from the Pacific coast into Great Plains and Southeast, appears likely to remain under the influence of one prominent belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific. There is some signal in the medium-range guidance that an embedded short wave trough might support a developing frontal wave across the eastern Gulf Coast into southern Atlantic Seaboard vicinity late this coming week into next weekend. However, it is not yet clear that this will be strong enough to support an appreciable risk for severe storms. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... As the center of a broad and deep surface cyclone migrates across the lower Great Lakes region into Quebec Wednesday through Wednesday night, strong deep-layer mean wind fields will spread east of the Appalachians through the Atlantic Seaboard. This may include one south to south-southwesterly core of 50-80 kt winds in the 850-500 mb layer, coincident with a weakening convective band, remnant from storms developing on Tuesday across the lower Mississippi Valley. Destabilization with the approach of this activity may not be sufficient to support substantive re-intensification as it overspreads southern/middle Atlantic coastal areas during the day Wednesday, but it might still be accompanied by locally strong to severe wind gusts. In its wake, it also might not be out of the question that destabilization beneath the mid-level dry slot could become supportive of vigorous thunderstorm development during the afternoon to the east of the Blue Ridge. However, the extent of this potential remains unclear at this time. In the wake of the cyclone, much of the nation, from the Pacific coast into Great Plains and Southeast, appears likely to remain under the influence of one prominent belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific. There is some signal in the medium-range guidance that an embedded short wave trough might support a developing frontal wave across the eastern Gulf Coast into southern Atlantic Seaboard vicinity late this coming week into next weekend. However, it is not yet clear that this will be strong enough to support an appreciable risk for severe storms. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... As the center of a broad and deep surface cyclone migrates across the lower Great Lakes region into Quebec Wednesday through Wednesday night, strong deep-layer mean wind fields will spread east of the Appalachians through the Atlantic Seaboard. This may include one south to south-southwesterly core of 50-80 kt winds in the 850-500 mb layer, coincident with a weakening convective band, remnant from storms developing on Tuesday across the lower Mississippi Valley. Destabilization with the approach of this activity may not be sufficient to support substantive re-intensification as it overspreads southern/middle Atlantic coastal areas during the day Wednesday, but it might still be accompanied by locally strong to severe wind gusts. In its wake, it also might not be out of the question that destabilization beneath the mid-level dry slot could become supportive of vigorous thunderstorm development during the afternoon to the east of the Blue Ridge. However, the extent of this potential remains unclear at this time. In the wake of the cyclone, much of the nation, from the Pacific coast into Great Plains and Southeast, appears likely to remain under the influence of one prominent belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific. There is some signal in the medium-range guidance that an embedded short wave trough might support a developing frontal wave across the eastern Gulf Coast into southern Atlantic Seaboard vicinity late this coming week into next weekend. However, it is not yet clear that this will be strong enough to support an appreciable risk for severe storms. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS....MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized lines or clusters of thunderstorm, and perhaps a few supercells, will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes and hail, primarily across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast, Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Latest model output remains a bit varied concerning the evolution and motion of a significant mid/upper trough, which is generally forecast to be in the process of shifting across and east of the southern Rockies Monday night into early Tuesday. However, guidance indicates that it will remain progressive, and likely to overspread much of the Mississippi Valley by the end of the period. In lower-levels a broad deep cyclone is likely to continue to evolve, with the center forecast to track from Kansas into the Upper Midwest by 12Z Wednesday. In the wake of a recent intrusion of dry/potentially cool air, associated with surface ridging shifting east of the Atlantic Seaboard, models indicate that an influx of moisture off the western Gulf Basin will advect eastward ahead of the cold front trailing the cyclone. However, northeast of the southeastern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley, the moisture return may remain elevated above a residual cool/stable near surface layer. Still, large-scale forcing for ascent and destabilization will probably be sufficient to support extensive thunderstorm development across the interior U.S., and a fairly broad area with at least a conditional risk for severe storms, given the strength of flow/shear in the evolving warm sector. ...Lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast... An initially well-defined near-surface baroclinic zone may extend from the Arkansas/Oklahoma vicinity southeastward through the lower Mississippi Valley at the outset of the period. While it appears that this boundary may become more diffuse while shifting eastward during the day, it may still provide the primary focus for an organizing cluster and/or discrete supercell development, as forcing for ascent associated with a short wave perturbation within the larger-scale mid/upper troughing overspreads the region. Of concern, models indicate that this feature will be accompanied by an intense jet core, which may include south-southwesterly winds of 70-100 kt in the 850-500 mb layer overspreading portions of Louisiana and Mississippi. These speeds appear generally forecast within the inflow layer of potential storm development, with speeds tending to weaken to 40-50 kt as they veer to a more westerly component in the potential downdraft source region. So uncertainty exists concerning the magnitude of potential downward mixing of momentum in convective development. Even so, particularly along the remnant boundary, the environment probably will become conducive to potential for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes and some hail across southern Arkansas and northern/ central Louisiana into Mississippi. As this activity spreads eastward Tuesday night, the extent to which near-surface thermodynamic profiles support a risk for damaging surface gusts and tornadoes across Alabama into Georgia remains unclear, but it seems likely to diminish with eastward extent and time. ..Kerr.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS....MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized lines or clusters of thunderstorm, and perhaps a few supercells, will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes and hail, primarily across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast, Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Latest model output remains a bit varied concerning the evolution and motion of a significant mid/upper trough, which is generally forecast to be in the process of shifting across and east of the southern Rockies Monday night into early Tuesday. However, guidance indicates that it will remain progressive, and likely to overspread much of the Mississippi Valley by the end of the period. In lower-levels a broad deep cyclone is likely to continue to evolve, with the center forecast to track from Kansas into the Upper Midwest by 12Z Wednesday. In the wake of a recent intrusion of dry/potentially cool air, associated with surface ridging shifting east of the Atlantic Seaboard, models indicate that an influx of moisture off the western Gulf Basin will advect eastward ahead of the cold front trailing the cyclone. However, northeast of the southeastern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley, the moisture return may remain elevated above a residual cool/stable near surface layer. Still, large-scale forcing for ascent and destabilization will probably be sufficient to support extensive thunderstorm development across the interior U.S., and a fairly broad area with at least a conditional risk for severe storms, given the strength of flow/shear in the evolving warm sector. ...Lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast... An initially well-defined near-surface baroclinic zone may extend from the Arkansas/Oklahoma vicinity southeastward through the lower Mississippi Valley at the outset of the period. While it appears that this boundary may become more diffuse while shifting eastward during the day, it may still provide the primary focus for an organizing cluster and/or discrete supercell development, as forcing for ascent associated with a short wave perturbation within the larger-scale mid/upper troughing overspreads the region. Of concern, models indicate that this feature will be accompanied by an intense jet core, which may include south-southwesterly winds of 70-100 kt in the 850-500 mb layer overspreading portions of Louisiana and Mississippi. These speeds appear generally forecast within the inflow layer of potential storm development, with speeds tending to weaken to 40-50 kt as they veer to a more westerly component in the potential downdraft source region. So uncertainty exists concerning the magnitude of potential downward mixing of momentum in convective development. Even so, particularly along the remnant boundary, the environment probably will become conducive to potential for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes and some hail across southern Arkansas and northern/ central Louisiana into Mississippi. As this activity spreads eastward Tuesday night, the extent to which near-surface thermodynamic profiles support a risk for damaging surface gusts and tornadoes across Alabama into Georgia remains unclear, but it seems likely to diminish with eastward extent and time. ..Kerr.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS....MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized lines or clusters of thunderstorm, and perhaps a few supercells, will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes and hail, primarily across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast, Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Latest model output remains a bit varied concerning the evolution and motion of a significant mid/upper trough, which is generally forecast to be in the process of shifting across and east of the southern Rockies Monday night into early Tuesday. However, guidance indicates that it will remain progressive, and likely to overspread much of the Mississippi Valley by the end of the period. In lower-levels a broad deep cyclone is likely to continue to evolve, with the center forecast to track from Kansas into the Upper Midwest by 12Z Wednesday. In the wake of a recent intrusion of dry/potentially cool air, associated with surface ridging shifting east of the Atlantic Seaboard, models indicate that an influx of moisture off the western Gulf Basin will advect eastward ahead of the cold front trailing the cyclone. However, northeast of the southeastern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley, the moisture return may remain elevated above a residual cool/stable near surface layer. Still, large-scale forcing for ascent and destabilization will probably be sufficient to support extensive thunderstorm development across the interior U.S., and a fairly broad area with at least a conditional risk for severe storms, given the strength of flow/shear in the evolving warm sector. ...Lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast... An initially well-defined near-surface baroclinic zone may extend from the Arkansas/Oklahoma vicinity southeastward through the lower Mississippi Valley at the outset of the period. While it appears that this boundary may become more diffuse while shifting eastward during the day, it may still provide the primary focus for an organizing cluster and/or discrete supercell development, as forcing for ascent associated with a short wave perturbation within the larger-scale mid/upper troughing overspreads the region. Of concern, models indicate that this feature will be accompanied by an intense jet core, which may include south-southwesterly winds of 70-100 kt in the 850-500 mb layer overspreading portions of Louisiana and Mississippi. These speeds appear generally forecast within the inflow layer of potential storm development, with speeds tending to weaken to 40-50 kt as they veer to a more westerly component in the potential downdraft source region. So uncertainty exists concerning the magnitude of potential downward mixing of momentum in convective development. Even so, particularly along the remnant boundary, the environment probably will become conducive to potential for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes and some hail across southern Arkansas and northern/ central Louisiana into Mississippi. As this activity spreads eastward Tuesday night, the extent to which near-surface thermodynamic profiles support a risk for damaging surface gusts and tornadoes across Alabama into Georgia remains unclear, but it seems likely to diminish with eastward extent and time. ..Kerr.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS....MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized lines or clusters of thunderstorm, and perhaps a few supercells, will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes and hail, primarily across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast, Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Latest model output remains a bit varied concerning the evolution and motion of a significant mid/upper trough, which is generally forecast to be in the process of shifting across and east of the southern Rockies Monday night into early Tuesday. However, guidance indicates that it will remain progressive, and likely to overspread much of the Mississippi Valley by the end of the period. In lower-levels a broad deep cyclone is likely to continue to evolve, with the center forecast to track from Kansas into the Upper Midwest by 12Z Wednesday. In the wake of a recent intrusion of dry/potentially cool air, associated with surface ridging shifting east of the Atlantic Seaboard, models indicate that an influx of moisture off the western Gulf Basin will advect eastward ahead of the cold front trailing the cyclone. However, northeast of the southeastern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley, the moisture return may remain elevated above a residual cool/stable near surface layer. Still, large-scale forcing for ascent and destabilization will probably be sufficient to support extensive thunderstorm development across the interior U.S., and a fairly broad area with at least a conditional risk for severe storms, given the strength of flow/shear in the evolving warm sector. ...Lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast... An initially well-defined near-surface baroclinic zone may extend from the Arkansas/Oklahoma vicinity southeastward through the lower Mississippi Valley at the outset of the period. While it appears that this boundary may become more diffuse while shifting eastward during the day, it may still provide the primary focus for an organizing cluster and/or discrete supercell development, as forcing for ascent associated with a short wave perturbation within the larger-scale mid/upper troughing overspreads the region. Of concern, models indicate that this feature will be accompanied by an intense jet core, which may include south-southwesterly winds of 70-100 kt in the 850-500 mb layer overspreading portions of Louisiana and Mississippi. These speeds appear generally forecast within the inflow layer of potential storm development, with speeds tending to weaken to 40-50 kt as they veer to a more westerly component in the potential downdraft source region. So uncertainty exists concerning the magnitude of potential downward mixing of momentum in convective development. Even so, particularly along the remnant boundary, the environment probably will become conducive to potential for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes and some hail across southern Arkansas and northern/ central Louisiana into Mississippi. As this activity spreads eastward Tuesday night, the extent to which near-surface thermodynamic profiles support a risk for damaging surface gusts and tornadoes across Alabama into Georgia remains unclear, but it seems likely to diminish with eastward extent and time. ..Kerr.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS....MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized lines or clusters of thunderstorm, and perhaps a few supercells, will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes and hail, primarily across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast, Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Latest model output remains a bit varied concerning the evolution and motion of a significant mid/upper trough, which is generally forecast to be in the process of shifting across and east of the southern Rockies Monday night into early Tuesday. However, guidance indicates that it will remain progressive, and likely to overspread much of the Mississippi Valley by the end of the period. In lower-levels a broad deep cyclone is likely to continue to evolve, with the center forecast to track from Kansas into the Upper Midwest by 12Z Wednesday. In the wake of a recent intrusion of dry/potentially cool air, associated with surface ridging shifting east of the Atlantic Seaboard, models indicate that an influx of moisture off the western Gulf Basin will advect eastward ahead of the cold front trailing the cyclone. However, northeast of the southeastern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley, the moisture return may remain elevated above a residual cool/stable near surface layer. Still, large-scale forcing for ascent and destabilization will probably be sufficient to support extensive thunderstorm development across the interior U.S., and a fairly broad area with at least a conditional risk for severe storms, given the strength of flow/shear in the evolving warm sector. ...Lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast... An initially well-defined near-surface baroclinic zone may extend from the Arkansas/Oklahoma vicinity southeastward through the lower Mississippi Valley at the outset of the period. While it appears that this boundary may become more diffuse while shifting eastward during the day, it may still provide the primary focus for an organizing cluster and/or discrete supercell development, as forcing for ascent associated with a short wave perturbation within the larger-scale mid/upper troughing overspreads the region. Of concern, models indicate that this feature will be accompanied by an intense jet core, which may include south-southwesterly winds of 70-100 kt in the 850-500 mb layer overspreading portions of Louisiana and Mississippi. These speeds appear generally forecast within the inflow layer of potential storm development, with speeds tending to weaken to 40-50 kt as they veer to a more westerly component in the potential downdraft source region. So uncertainty exists concerning the magnitude of potential downward mixing of momentum in convective development. Even so, particularly along the remnant boundary, the environment probably will become conducive to potential for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes and some hail across southern Arkansas and northern/ central Louisiana into Mississippi. As this activity spreads eastward Tuesday night, the extent to which near-surface thermodynamic profiles support a risk for damaging surface gusts and tornadoes across Alabama into Georgia remains unclear, but it seems likely to diminish with eastward extent and time. ..Kerr.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS....MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized lines or clusters of thunderstorm, and perhaps a few supercells, will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes and hail, primarily across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast, Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Latest model output remains a bit varied concerning the evolution and motion of a significant mid/upper trough, which is generally forecast to be in the process of shifting across and east of the southern Rockies Monday night into early Tuesday. However, guidance indicates that it will remain progressive, and likely to overspread much of the Mississippi Valley by the end of the period. In lower-levels a broad deep cyclone is likely to continue to evolve, with the center forecast to track from Kansas into the Upper Midwest by 12Z Wednesday. In the wake of a recent intrusion of dry/potentially cool air, associated with surface ridging shifting east of the Atlantic Seaboard, models indicate that an influx of moisture off the western Gulf Basin will advect eastward ahead of the cold front trailing the cyclone. However, northeast of the southeastern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley, the moisture return may remain elevated above a residual cool/stable near surface layer. Still, large-scale forcing for ascent and destabilization will probably be sufficient to support extensive thunderstorm development across the interior U.S., and a fairly broad area with at least a conditional risk for severe storms, given the strength of flow/shear in the evolving warm sector. ...Lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast... An initially well-defined near-surface baroclinic zone may extend from the Arkansas/Oklahoma vicinity southeastward through the lower Mississippi Valley at the outset of the period. While it appears that this boundary may become more diffuse while shifting eastward during the day, it may still provide the primary focus for an organizing cluster and/or discrete supercell development, as forcing for ascent associated with a short wave perturbation within the larger-scale mid/upper troughing overspreads the region. Of concern, models indicate that this feature will be accompanied by an intense jet core, which may include south-southwesterly winds of 70-100 kt in the 850-500 mb layer overspreading portions of Louisiana and Mississippi. These speeds appear generally forecast within the inflow layer of potential storm development, with speeds tending to weaken to 40-50 kt as they veer to a more westerly component in the potential downdraft source region. So uncertainty exists concerning the magnitude of potential downward mixing of momentum in convective development. Even so, particularly along the remnant boundary, the environment probably will become conducive to potential for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes and some hail across southern Arkansas and northern/ central Louisiana into Mississippi. As this activity spreads eastward Tuesday night, the extent to which near-surface thermodynamic profiles support a risk for damaging surface gusts and tornadoes across Alabama into Georgia remains unclear, but it seems likely to diminish with eastward extent and time. ..Kerr.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS....MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized lines or clusters of thunderstorm, and perhaps a few supercells, will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes and hail, primarily across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast, Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Latest model output remains a bit varied concerning the evolution and motion of a significant mid/upper trough, which is generally forecast to be in the process of shifting across and east of the southern Rockies Monday night into early Tuesday. However, guidance indicates that it will remain progressive, and likely to overspread much of the Mississippi Valley by the end of the period. In lower-levels a broad deep cyclone is likely to continue to evolve, with the center forecast to track from Kansas into the Upper Midwest by 12Z Wednesday. In the wake of a recent intrusion of dry/potentially cool air, associated with surface ridging shifting east of the Atlantic Seaboard, models indicate that an influx of moisture off the western Gulf Basin will advect eastward ahead of the cold front trailing the cyclone. However, northeast of the southeastern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley, the moisture return may remain elevated above a residual cool/stable near surface layer. Still, large-scale forcing for ascent and destabilization will probably be sufficient to support extensive thunderstorm development across the interior U.S., and a fairly broad area with at least a conditional risk for severe storms, given the strength of flow/shear in the evolving warm sector. ...Lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast... An initially well-defined near-surface baroclinic zone may extend from the Arkansas/Oklahoma vicinity southeastward through the lower Mississippi Valley at the outset of the period. While it appears that this boundary may become more diffuse while shifting eastward during the day, it may still provide the primary focus for an organizing cluster and/or discrete supercell development, as forcing for ascent associated with a short wave perturbation within the larger-scale mid/upper troughing overspreads the region. Of concern, models indicate that this feature will be accompanied by an intense jet core, which may include south-southwesterly winds of 70-100 kt in the 850-500 mb layer overspreading portions of Louisiana and Mississippi. These speeds appear generally forecast within the inflow layer of potential storm development, with speeds tending to weaken to 40-50 kt as they veer to a more westerly component in the potential downdraft source region. So uncertainty exists concerning the magnitude of potential downward mixing of momentum in convective development. Even so, particularly along the remnant boundary, the environment probably will become conducive to potential for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes and some hail across southern Arkansas and northern/ central Louisiana into Mississippi. As this activity spreads eastward Tuesday night, the extent to which near-surface thermodynamic profiles support a risk for damaging surface gusts and tornadoes across Alabama into Georgia remains unclear, but it seems likely to diminish with eastward extent and time. ..Kerr.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AND WESTERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... The second and larger in a series of mid-level troughs will traverse the Southern Rockies tomorrow (Monday), encouraging rapid surface low development along the High Plains. Behind a trailing surface dryline, widespread dry and windy conditions will prevail for several hours Monday afternoon, promoting dangerous wildfire-spread potential. Widespread 20+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will become common across much of New Mexico into southeastern Colorado and western Texas, necessitating the introduction of broad Elevated/Critical highlights. However, deterministic and ensemble guidance consensus (including high-resolution members) depict a belt of 30-40 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds coinciding with 5-10 percent RH for at least a few hours across portions of eastern New Mexico into Far West Texas. In this area, fuel receptiveness is approaching critical thresholds, and when considering the intense winds with very low RH, at least localized to potentially widespread extreme wildfire-spread behavior is possible, with Extremely Critical highlights introduced. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected to develop across the southern Plains Sunday into Monday. The southwestern most extent of these storms may occur across portions of western Texas into Oklahoma, which may temper wildfire-spread concerns in the northeastern portions of the Elevated and Critical highlights. As such, these particular highlights may need considerable adjustments in later outlooks. ..Squitieri.. 03/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AND WESTERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... The second and larger in a series of mid-level troughs will traverse the Southern Rockies tomorrow (Monday), encouraging rapid surface low development along the High Plains. Behind a trailing surface dryline, widespread dry and windy conditions will prevail for several hours Monday afternoon, promoting dangerous wildfire-spread potential. Widespread 20+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will become common across much of New Mexico into southeastern Colorado and western Texas, necessitating the introduction of broad Elevated/Critical highlights. However, deterministic and ensemble guidance consensus (including high-resolution members) depict a belt of 30-40 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds coinciding with 5-10 percent RH for at least a few hours across portions of eastern New Mexico into Far West Texas. In this area, fuel receptiveness is approaching critical thresholds, and when considering the intense winds with very low RH, at least localized to potentially widespread extreme wildfire-spread behavior is possible, with Extremely Critical highlights introduced. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected to develop across the southern Plains Sunday into Monday. The southwestern most extent of these storms may occur across portions of western Texas into Oklahoma, which may temper wildfire-spread concerns in the northeastern portions of the Elevated and Critical highlights. As such, these particular highlights may need considerable adjustments in later outlooks. ..Squitieri.. 03/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AND WESTERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... The second and larger in a series of mid-level troughs will traverse the Southern Rockies tomorrow (Monday), encouraging rapid surface low development along the High Plains. Behind a trailing surface dryline, widespread dry and windy conditions will prevail for several hours Monday afternoon, promoting dangerous wildfire-spread potential. Widespread 20+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will become common across much of New Mexico into southeastern Colorado and western Texas, necessitating the introduction of broad Elevated/Critical highlights. However, deterministic and ensemble guidance consensus (including high-resolution members) depict a belt of 30-40 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds coinciding with 5-10 percent RH for at least a few hours across portions of eastern New Mexico into Far West Texas. In this area, fuel receptiveness is approaching critical thresholds, and when considering the intense winds with very low RH, at least localized to potentially widespread extreme wildfire-spread behavior is possible, with Extremely Critical highlights introduced. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected to develop across the southern Plains Sunday into Monday. The southwestern most extent of these storms may occur across portions of western Texas into Oklahoma, which may temper wildfire-spread concerns in the northeastern portions of the Elevated and Critical highlights. As such, these particular highlights may need considerable adjustments in later outlooks. ..Squitieri.. 03/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more