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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from western North Texas into western Oklahoma this afternoon and early evening. Large hail and strong/marginally severe winds, and a couple tornadoes are the primary hazards. ...OK/TX... A compact upper low and attendant shortwave trough will shift east from NM into the southern Plains this afternoon/evening, before weakening as it evolves toward the Lower MS Valley by Monday morning. An 80 to 100 kt 500 mb jet will overspread parts of northwest TX on the southern periphery of the upper low, with the left exit region of the jet streak favorably oriented over the southwest OK vicinity. Forecast guidance has continued to creep southward with the position of the upper low/trough and jet streak. As a result, the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk as been removed from southwest KS. At the surface, a weak low will develop eastward from eastern NM through the TX Panhandle and far western OK through evening. Strong southerly low-level flow will result in some northward transport of Gulf moisture, but this moisture will likely remain modest. Forecast guidance has trended toward dewpoints in the low to mid 50s F over the last few model cycles. A potential boost in low-level moisture may be tied to expected rain/elevated thunderstorms arcing across the region during the morning into early afternoon. However, this precipitation and associated cloudiness also will prevent stronger diurnal heating. Strong vertical wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings across the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK. Enlarged, looping low-level hodographs are expected, with low-topped supercells possibly developing by 20-22z. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to be quite steep, with 500 mb temperatures around -20 C, supporting MLCAPE up to 500-750 J/kg. Warming above 500 mb and backing midlevel winds above 700 mb will limit longevity of deeper, organized updrafts. However, strong ascent and forecast 3 km MLCAPE values approaching 100-125 J/kg amid favorable low-level shear suggests any stronger storms may be capable of producing brief tornadoes. Additionally, given steep midlevel lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft, and a sufficient elevated instability, isolated large hail may also occur. Sporadic strong gusts approaching 50 mph will also be possible as storms track across western north TX and western OK. The severe risk is expected to remain fairly limited in space and time and is a bit conditional on quality of low-level moisture. Nevertheless, a relatively higher probability for a couple of tornadoes and large hail exists across the far eastern TX Panhandle into southwest OK, and a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been introduced. ..Leitman/Squitieri.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from western North Texas into western Oklahoma this afternoon and early evening. Large hail and strong/marginally severe winds, and a couple tornadoes are the primary hazards. ...OK/TX... A compact upper low and attendant shortwave trough will shift east from NM into the southern Plains this afternoon/evening, before weakening as it evolves toward the Lower MS Valley by Monday morning. An 80 to 100 kt 500 mb jet will overspread parts of northwest TX on the southern periphery of the upper low, with the left exit region of the jet streak favorably oriented over the southwest OK vicinity. Forecast guidance has continued to creep southward with the position of the upper low/trough and jet streak. As a result, the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk as been removed from southwest KS. At the surface, a weak low will develop eastward from eastern NM through the TX Panhandle and far western OK through evening. Strong southerly low-level flow will result in some northward transport of Gulf moisture, but this moisture will likely remain modest. Forecast guidance has trended toward dewpoints in the low to mid 50s F over the last few model cycles. A potential boost in low-level moisture may be tied to expected rain/elevated thunderstorms arcing across the region during the morning into early afternoon. However, this precipitation and associated cloudiness also will prevent stronger diurnal heating. Strong vertical wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings across the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK. Enlarged, looping low-level hodographs are expected, with low-topped supercells possibly developing by 20-22z. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to be quite steep, with 500 mb temperatures around -20 C, supporting MLCAPE up to 500-750 J/kg. Warming above 500 mb and backing midlevel winds above 700 mb will limit longevity of deeper, organized updrafts. However, strong ascent and forecast 3 km MLCAPE values approaching 100-125 J/kg amid favorable low-level shear suggests any stronger storms may be capable of producing brief tornadoes. Additionally, given steep midlevel lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft, and a sufficient elevated instability, isolated large hail may also occur. Sporadic strong gusts approaching 50 mph will also be possible as storms track across western north TX and western OK. The severe risk is expected to remain fairly limited in space and time and is a bit conditional on quality of low-level moisture. Nevertheless, a relatively higher probability for a couple of tornadoes and large hail exists across the far eastern TX Panhandle into southwest OK, and a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been introduced. ..Leitman/Squitieri.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis... A dearth of boundary-layer moisture and strong surface high pressure east of the Rockies will preclude thunderstorm potential for the remainder of this evening/overnight. ..Leitman.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis... A dearth of boundary-layer moisture and strong surface high pressure east of the Rockies will preclude thunderstorm potential for the remainder of this evening/overnight. ..Leitman.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis... A dearth of boundary-layer moisture and strong surface high pressure east of the Rockies will preclude thunderstorm potential for the remainder of this evening/overnight. ..Leitman.. 03/02/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Mar 1 22:29:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Mar 1 22:29:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain very active through much of next week with a progressive pattern resulting in a series of strong mid/upper-level troughs moving across the southern U.S. Meanwhile, the persistent dry conditions across the southern High Plains will continue to promote further drying of fuels, with critically dry fuels expected over a broad area. Multiple days of very strong winds, very low minimum RH values, and critically receptive fuels are expected. Higher-end critical conditions - with significant fire potential - appear probable on Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. ...Southern Plains: Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 7/Friday... A large mid-level trough is forecast to rapidly deepen over the Four Corners on Day 3/Monday as strong mid-level flow overspreads a warm and dry low-level airmass across the Southern Plains. In response, an area of rapidly developing lee cyclogenesis is expected across portions of CO/KS, which will tighten the surface pressure gradient. The combination of very strong surface winds, very low minimum RH, and critically receptive fuels (including locally heavy herbaceous fuel loading) will promote higher-end and potentially significant fire weather conditions - especially across portions of New Mexico and far western Texas. Higher-end critical fire weather conditions (with significant fire weather potential) will also be possible Day 4/Tuesday across portions of Texas as the aforementioned surface low moves eastward. The primary uncertainty remains the eastward extent of the fire weather threat, which may be modulated somewhat by wetting rainfall ahead of the system. After a brief break from large-scale fire weather conditions across the southern High Plains Day 5/Wednesday, fire weather conditions are forecast to return Day 6/Thursday through at least Day 7/Friday as another mid-level trough moves across the southern U.S. Enough run-to-run and inter-model consistency exists to introduce 40% probabilities for Critical conditions both Day 6/Thursday (in a dry return flow pattern) and Day 7/Friday (behind a dryline/frontal passage), where the most favorable overlap of strong winds, low RH, and receptive fuel is currently expected. ...Eastern US: Day 5/Wednesday - Day 6/Thursday... Local fire weather conditions are possible Day 5/Wednesday and Day 6/Thursday across portions of the Southeast U.S., as dry/breezy conditions occur behind a cold frontal passage. However, at this time, confidence for any critical fire weather risk is low due to precipitation potential ahead of the front perhaps reducing fuel receptiveness. ..Elliott.. 03/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain very active through much of next week with a progressive pattern resulting in a series of strong mid/upper-level troughs moving across the southern U.S. Meanwhile, the persistent dry conditions across the southern High Plains will continue to promote further drying of fuels, with critically dry fuels expected over a broad area. Multiple days of very strong winds, very low minimum RH values, and critically receptive fuels are expected. Higher-end critical conditions - with significant fire potential - appear probable on Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. ...Southern Plains: Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 7/Friday... A large mid-level trough is forecast to rapidly deepen over the Four Corners on Day 3/Monday as strong mid-level flow overspreads a warm and dry low-level airmass across the Southern Plains. In response, an area of rapidly developing lee cyclogenesis is expected across portions of CO/KS, which will tighten the surface pressure gradient. The combination of very strong surface winds, very low minimum RH, and critically receptive fuels (including locally heavy herbaceous fuel loading) will promote higher-end and potentially significant fire weather conditions - especially across portions of New Mexico and far western Texas. Higher-end critical fire weather conditions (with significant fire weather potential) will also be possible Day 4/Tuesday across portions of Texas as the aforementioned surface low moves eastward. The primary uncertainty remains the eastward extent of the fire weather threat, which may be modulated somewhat by wetting rainfall ahead of the system. After a brief break from large-scale fire weather conditions across the southern High Plains Day 5/Wednesday, fire weather conditions are forecast to return Day 6/Thursday through at least Day 7/Friday as another mid-level trough moves across the southern U.S. Enough run-to-run and inter-model consistency exists to introduce 40% probabilities for Critical conditions both Day 6/Thursday (in a dry return flow pattern) and Day 7/Friday (behind a dryline/frontal passage), where the most favorable overlap of strong winds, low RH, and receptive fuel is currently expected. ...Eastern US: Day 5/Wednesday - Day 6/Thursday... Local fire weather conditions are possible Day 5/Wednesday and Day 6/Thursday across portions of the Southeast U.S., as dry/breezy conditions occur behind a cold frontal passage. However, at this time, confidence for any critical fire weather risk is low due to precipitation potential ahead of the front perhaps reducing fuel receptiveness. ..Elliott.. 03/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain very active through much of next week with a progressive pattern resulting in a series of strong mid/upper-level troughs moving across the southern U.S. Meanwhile, the persistent dry conditions across the southern High Plains will continue to promote further drying of fuels, with critically dry fuels expected over a broad area. Multiple days of very strong winds, very low minimum RH values, and critically receptive fuels are expected. Higher-end critical conditions - with significant fire potential - appear probable on Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. ...Southern Plains: Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 7/Friday... A large mid-level trough is forecast to rapidly deepen over the Four Corners on Day 3/Monday as strong mid-level flow overspreads a warm and dry low-level airmass across the Southern Plains. In response, an area of rapidly developing lee cyclogenesis is expected across portions of CO/KS, which will tighten the surface pressure gradient. The combination of very strong surface winds, very low minimum RH, and critically receptive fuels (including locally heavy herbaceous fuel loading) will promote higher-end and potentially significant fire weather conditions - especially across portions of New Mexico and far western Texas. Higher-end critical fire weather conditions (with significant fire weather potential) will also be possible Day 4/Tuesday across portions of Texas as the aforementioned surface low moves eastward. The primary uncertainty remains the eastward extent of the fire weather threat, which may be modulated somewhat by wetting rainfall ahead of the system. After a brief break from large-scale fire weather conditions across the southern High Plains Day 5/Wednesday, fire weather conditions are forecast to return Day 6/Thursday through at least Day 7/Friday as another mid-level trough moves across the southern U.S. Enough run-to-run and inter-model consistency exists to introduce 40% probabilities for Critical conditions both Day 6/Thursday (in a dry return flow pattern) and Day 7/Friday (behind a dryline/frontal passage), where the most favorable overlap of strong winds, low RH, and receptive fuel is currently expected. ...Eastern US: Day 5/Wednesday - Day 6/Thursday... Local fire weather conditions are possible Day 5/Wednesday and Day 6/Thursday across portions of the Southeast U.S., as dry/breezy conditions occur behind a cold frontal passage. However, at this time, confidence for any critical fire weather risk is low due to precipitation potential ahead of the front perhaps reducing fuel receptiveness. ..Elliott.. 03/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain very active through much of next week with a progressive pattern resulting in a series of strong mid/upper-level troughs moving across the southern U.S. Meanwhile, the persistent dry conditions across the southern High Plains will continue to promote further drying of fuels, with critically dry fuels expected over a broad area. Multiple days of very strong winds, very low minimum RH values, and critically receptive fuels are expected. Higher-end critical conditions - with significant fire potential - appear probable on Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. ...Southern Plains: Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 7/Friday... A large mid-level trough is forecast to rapidly deepen over the Four Corners on Day 3/Monday as strong mid-level flow overspreads a warm and dry low-level airmass across the Southern Plains. In response, an area of rapidly developing lee cyclogenesis is expected across portions of CO/KS, which will tighten the surface pressure gradient. The combination of very strong surface winds, very low minimum RH, and critically receptive fuels (including locally heavy herbaceous fuel loading) will promote higher-end and potentially significant fire weather conditions - especially across portions of New Mexico and far western Texas. Higher-end critical fire weather conditions (with significant fire weather potential) will also be possible Day 4/Tuesday across portions of Texas as the aforementioned surface low moves eastward. The primary uncertainty remains the eastward extent of the fire weather threat, which may be modulated somewhat by wetting rainfall ahead of the system. After a brief break from large-scale fire weather conditions across the southern High Plains Day 5/Wednesday, fire weather conditions are forecast to return Day 6/Thursday through at least Day 7/Friday as another mid-level trough moves across the southern U.S. Enough run-to-run and inter-model consistency exists to introduce 40% probabilities for Critical conditions both Day 6/Thursday (in a dry return flow pattern) and Day 7/Friday (behind a dryline/frontal passage), where the most favorable overlap of strong winds, low RH, and receptive fuel is currently expected. ...Eastern US: Day 5/Wednesday - Day 6/Thursday... Local fire weather conditions are possible Day 5/Wednesday and Day 6/Thursday across portions of the Southeast U.S., as dry/breezy conditions occur behind a cold frontal passage. However, at this time, confidence for any critical fire weather risk is low due to precipitation potential ahead of the front perhaps reducing fuel receptiveness. ..Elliott.. 03/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain very active through much of next week with a progressive pattern resulting in a series of strong mid/upper-level troughs moving across the southern U.S. Meanwhile, the persistent dry conditions across the southern High Plains will continue to promote further drying of fuels, with critically dry fuels expected over a broad area. Multiple days of very strong winds, very low minimum RH values, and critically receptive fuels are expected. Higher-end critical conditions - with significant fire potential - appear probable on Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. ...Southern Plains: Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 7/Friday... A large mid-level trough is forecast to rapidly deepen over the Four Corners on Day 3/Monday as strong mid-level flow overspreads a warm and dry low-level airmass across the Southern Plains. In response, an area of rapidly developing lee cyclogenesis is expected across portions of CO/KS, which will tighten the surface pressure gradient. The combination of very strong surface winds, very low minimum RH, and critically receptive fuels (including locally heavy herbaceous fuel loading) will promote higher-end and potentially significant fire weather conditions - especially across portions of New Mexico and far western Texas. Higher-end critical fire weather conditions (with significant fire weather potential) will also be possible Day 4/Tuesday across portions of Texas as the aforementioned surface low moves eastward. The primary uncertainty remains the eastward extent of the fire weather threat, which may be modulated somewhat by wetting rainfall ahead of the system. After a brief break from large-scale fire weather conditions across the southern High Plains Day 5/Wednesday, fire weather conditions are forecast to return Day 6/Thursday through at least Day 7/Friday as another mid-level trough moves across the southern U.S. Enough run-to-run and inter-model consistency exists to introduce 40% probabilities for Critical conditions both Day 6/Thursday (in a dry return flow pattern) and Day 7/Friday (behind a dryline/frontal passage), where the most favorable overlap of strong winds, low RH, and receptive fuel is currently expected. ...Eastern US: Day 5/Wednesday - Day 6/Thursday... Local fire weather conditions are possible Day 5/Wednesday and Day 6/Thursday across portions of the Southeast U.S., as dry/breezy conditions occur behind a cold frontal passage. However, at this time, confidence for any critical fire weather risk is low due to precipitation potential ahead of the front perhaps reducing fuel receptiveness. ..Elliott.. 03/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain very active through much of next week with a progressive pattern resulting in a series of strong mid/upper-level troughs moving across the southern U.S. Meanwhile, the persistent dry conditions across the southern High Plains will continue to promote further drying of fuels, with critically dry fuels expected over a broad area. Multiple days of very strong winds, very low minimum RH values, and critically receptive fuels are expected. Higher-end critical conditions - with significant fire potential - appear probable on Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. ...Southern Plains: Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 7/Friday... A large mid-level trough is forecast to rapidly deepen over the Four Corners on Day 3/Monday as strong mid-level flow overspreads a warm and dry low-level airmass across the Southern Plains. In response, an area of rapidly developing lee cyclogenesis is expected across portions of CO/KS, which will tighten the surface pressure gradient. The combination of very strong surface winds, very low minimum RH, and critically receptive fuels (including locally heavy herbaceous fuel loading) will promote higher-end and potentially significant fire weather conditions - especially across portions of New Mexico and far western Texas. Higher-end critical fire weather conditions (with significant fire weather potential) will also be possible Day 4/Tuesday across portions of Texas as the aforementioned surface low moves eastward. The primary uncertainty remains the eastward extent of the fire weather threat, which may be modulated somewhat by wetting rainfall ahead of the system. After a brief break from large-scale fire weather conditions across the southern High Plains Day 5/Wednesday, fire weather conditions are forecast to return Day 6/Thursday through at least Day 7/Friday as another mid-level trough moves across the southern U.S. Enough run-to-run and inter-model consistency exists to introduce 40% probabilities for Critical conditions both Day 6/Thursday (in a dry return flow pattern) and Day 7/Friday (behind a dryline/frontal passage), where the most favorable overlap of strong winds, low RH, and receptive fuel is currently expected. ...Eastern US: Day 5/Wednesday - Day 6/Thursday... Local fire weather conditions are possible Day 5/Wednesday and Day 6/Thursday across portions of the Southeast U.S., as dry/breezy conditions occur behind a cold frontal passage. However, at this time, confidence for any critical fire weather risk is low due to precipitation potential ahead of the front perhaps reducing fuel receptiveness. ..Elliott.. 03/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain very active through much of next week with a progressive pattern resulting in a series of strong mid/upper-level troughs moving across the southern U.S. Meanwhile, the persistent dry conditions across the southern High Plains will continue to promote further drying of fuels, with critically dry fuels expected over a broad area. Multiple days of very strong winds, very low minimum RH values, and critically receptive fuels are expected. Higher-end critical conditions - with significant fire potential - appear probable on Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. ...Southern Plains: Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 7/Friday... A large mid-level trough is forecast to rapidly deepen over the Four Corners on Day 3/Monday as strong mid-level flow overspreads a warm and dry low-level airmass across the Southern Plains. In response, an area of rapidly developing lee cyclogenesis is expected across portions of CO/KS, which will tighten the surface pressure gradient. The combination of very strong surface winds, very low minimum RH, and critically receptive fuels (including locally heavy herbaceous fuel loading) will promote higher-end and potentially significant fire weather conditions - especially across portions of New Mexico and far western Texas. Higher-end critical fire weather conditions (with significant fire weather potential) will also be possible Day 4/Tuesday across portions of Texas as the aforementioned surface low moves eastward. The primary uncertainty remains the eastward extent of the fire weather threat, which may be modulated somewhat by wetting rainfall ahead of the system. After a brief break from large-scale fire weather conditions across the southern High Plains Day 5/Wednesday, fire weather conditions are forecast to return Day 6/Thursday through at least Day 7/Friday as another mid-level trough moves across the southern U.S. Enough run-to-run and inter-model consistency exists to introduce 40% probabilities for Critical conditions both Day 6/Thursday (in a dry return flow pattern) and Day 7/Friday (behind a dryline/frontal passage), where the most favorable overlap of strong winds, low RH, and receptive fuel is currently expected. ...Eastern US: Day 5/Wednesday - Day 6/Thursday... Local fire weather conditions are possible Day 5/Wednesday and Day 6/Thursday across portions of the Southeast U.S., as dry/breezy conditions occur behind a cold frontal passage. However, at this time, confidence for any critical fire weather risk is low due to precipitation potential ahead of the front perhaps reducing fuel receptiveness. ..Elliott.. 03/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the prior forecast. Dry and stable conditions should limit thunderstorm potential over much of the US. An isolated lightning flash could occur near coastal northern CA but coverage should remain below 10%. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 03/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... 12Z observed soundings, recent surface observations, and satellite-based precipitable water estimates across AZ show very little moisture present this morning. A closed upper low over southern CA and northern Baja California will continue to advance eastward across the Southwest through the period. While strong large-scale ascent and cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this feature, nearly all guidance shows a lack of even weak instability until later this evening, mainly on the subsident/backside of the upper low. While showers should eventually move across parts of AZ late this evening and overnight, the potential for thunderstorms appears less than 10% due to the very limited low-level moisture and instability forecast. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected across the remainder of the CONUS through tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the prior forecast. Dry and stable conditions should limit thunderstorm potential over much of the US. An isolated lightning flash could occur near coastal northern CA but coverage should remain below 10%. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 03/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... 12Z observed soundings, recent surface observations, and satellite-based precipitable water estimates across AZ show very little moisture present this morning. A closed upper low over southern CA and northern Baja California will continue to advance eastward across the Southwest through the period. While strong large-scale ascent and cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this feature, nearly all guidance shows a lack of even weak instability until later this evening, mainly on the subsident/backside of the upper low. While showers should eventually move across parts of AZ late this evening and overnight, the potential for thunderstorms appears less than 10% due to the very limited low-level moisture and instability forecast. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected across the remainder of the CONUS through tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the prior forecast. Dry and stable conditions should limit thunderstorm potential over much of the US. An isolated lightning flash could occur near coastal northern CA but coverage should remain below 10%. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 03/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... 12Z observed soundings, recent surface observations, and satellite-based precipitable water estimates across AZ show very little moisture present this morning. A closed upper low over southern CA and northern Baja California will continue to advance eastward across the Southwest through the period. While strong large-scale ascent and cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this feature, nearly all guidance shows a lack of even weak instability until later this evening, mainly on the subsident/backside of the upper low. While showers should eventually move across parts of AZ late this evening and overnight, the potential for thunderstorms appears less than 10% due to the very limited low-level moisture and instability forecast. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected across the remainder of the CONUS through tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the prior forecast. Dry and stable conditions should limit thunderstorm potential over much of the US. An isolated lightning flash could occur near coastal northern CA but coverage should remain below 10%. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 03/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... 12Z observed soundings, recent surface observations, and satellite-based precipitable water estimates across AZ show very little moisture present this morning. A closed upper low over southern CA and northern Baja California will continue to advance eastward across the Southwest through the period. While strong large-scale ascent and cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this feature, nearly all guidance shows a lack of even weak instability until later this evening, mainly on the subsident/backside of the upper low. While showers should eventually move across parts of AZ late this evening and overnight, the potential for thunderstorms appears less than 10% due to the very limited low-level moisture and instability forecast. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected across the remainder of the CONUS through tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the prior forecast. Dry and stable conditions should limit thunderstorm potential over much of the US. An isolated lightning flash could occur near coastal northern CA but coverage should remain below 10%. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 03/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... 12Z observed soundings, recent surface observations, and satellite-based precipitable water estimates across AZ show very little moisture present this morning. A closed upper low over southern CA and northern Baja California will continue to advance eastward across the Southwest through the period. While strong large-scale ascent and cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this feature, nearly all guidance shows a lack of even weak instability until later this evening, mainly on the subsident/backside of the upper low. While showers should eventually move across parts of AZ late this evening and overnight, the potential for thunderstorms appears less than 10% due to the very limited low-level moisture and instability forecast. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected across the remainder of the CONUS through tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the prior forecast. Dry and stable conditions should limit thunderstorm potential over much of the US. An isolated lightning flash could occur near coastal northern CA but coverage should remain below 10%. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 03/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... 12Z observed soundings, recent surface observations, and satellite-based precipitable water estimates across AZ show very little moisture present this morning. A closed upper low over southern CA and northern Baja California will continue to advance eastward across the Southwest through the period. While strong large-scale ascent and cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this feature, nearly all guidance shows a lack of even weak instability until later this evening, mainly on the subsident/backside of the upper low. While showers should eventually move across parts of AZ late this evening and overnight, the potential for thunderstorms appears less than 10% due to the very limited low-level moisture and instability forecast. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected across the remainder of the CONUS through tonight. Read more