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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast... Latest high-resolution ensemble guidance continues to suggest a large area of elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions in the lee of the Appalachians and across the Southeast this afternoon. A very dry airmass has settled across the region in the wake of a dry cold front, with current surface observations indicating dewpoints between 25-35F. Highs near 70F today will support several hours of critical minimum RH values near 20-30% amidst receptive fuels and breezy downslope west/southwesterly surface winds. At this time, the best overlap of stronger surface winds (sustained winds near 20 mph and wind gusts 20-30 mph) and critical fuels appears to be across portions of western North and South Carolina, where a Critical fire weather area has been introduced. The Elevated area was also expanded farther across portions of the Northeast, along the Appalachians, and across the Southeast. ...Southwest... Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper low over portions of southern CA, which is forecast to move eastward into southwest AZ by this evening. As this occurs, strong mid-level flow is expected to overspread portions of the Desert Southwest. The latest surface observations suggest a very dry airmass is in place, with critical RH values already being observed. Strong/gusty surface winds are expected to develop over the next few hours, as a surface cyclone strengthens across the Lower Colorado River Basin. Higher-end critical fire weather conditions are possible across portions of Southern Arizona, where sustained winds near 30 mph and minimum RH values less than 10% are expected for a few hours this afternoon. Please see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Elliott.. 03/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the Desert Southwest as a larger-scale upper trough amplifies along the East Coast today. A surface cyclone will develop over the Lower Colorado River Basin, while a surface trough and accompanying cold front sweep across the Eastern Seaboard into the Southeast during the afternoon, encouraging dry and windy conditions across both meteorological regimes. Across the Lower Colorado River Basin, 20+ mph sustained southerly surface winds will coincide with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours around peak heating, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights given drying fuels. Likewise, fuels continue to dry from Virginia to Alabama, where the passage of the surface lee trough/cold front will support 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, that should shift to a northwesterly direction with time. RH will dip to at least 30 percent over several locales from the Mid Atlantic to the Southeast, where fuels remain receptive to wildfire spread and where Elevated highlights remain in place. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast... Latest high-resolution ensemble guidance continues to suggest a large area of elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions in the lee of the Appalachians and across the Southeast this afternoon. A very dry airmass has settled across the region in the wake of a dry cold front, with current surface observations indicating dewpoints between 25-35F. Highs near 70F today will support several hours of critical minimum RH values near 20-30% amidst receptive fuels and breezy downslope west/southwesterly surface winds. At this time, the best overlap of stronger surface winds (sustained winds near 20 mph and wind gusts 20-30 mph) and critical fuels appears to be across portions of western North and South Carolina, where a Critical fire weather area has been introduced. The Elevated area was also expanded farther across portions of the Northeast, along the Appalachians, and across the Southeast. ...Southwest... Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper low over portions of southern CA, which is forecast to move eastward into southwest AZ by this evening. As this occurs, strong mid-level flow is expected to overspread portions of the Desert Southwest. The latest surface observations suggest a very dry airmass is in place, with critical RH values already being observed. Strong/gusty surface winds are expected to develop over the next few hours, as a surface cyclone strengthens across the Lower Colorado River Basin. Higher-end critical fire weather conditions are possible across portions of Southern Arizona, where sustained winds near 30 mph and minimum RH values less than 10% are expected for a few hours this afternoon. Please see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Elliott.. 03/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the Desert Southwest as a larger-scale upper trough amplifies along the East Coast today. A surface cyclone will develop over the Lower Colorado River Basin, while a surface trough and accompanying cold front sweep across the Eastern Seaboard into the Southeast during the afternoon, encouraging dry and windy conditions across both meteorological regimes. Across the Lower Colorado River Basin, 20+ mph sustained southerly surface winds will coincide with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours around peak heating, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights given drying fuels. Likewise, fuels continue to dry from Virginia to Alabama, where the passage of the surface lee trough/cold front will support 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, that should shift to a northwesterly direction with time. RH will dip to at least 30 percent over several locales from the Mid Atlantic to the Southeast, where fuels remain receptive to wildfire spread and where Elevated highlights remain in place. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast... Latest high-resolution ensemble guidance continues to suggest a large area of elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions in the lee of the Appalachians and across the Southeast this afternoon. A very dry airmass has settled across the region in the wake of a dry cold front, with current surface observations indicating dewpoints between 25-35F. Highs near 70F today will support several hours of critical minimum RH values near 20-30% amidst receptive fuels and breezy downslope west/southwesterly surface winds. At this time, the best overlap of stronger surface winds (sustained winds near 20 mph and wind gusts 20-30 mph) and critical fuels appears to be across portions of western North and South Carolina, where a Critical fire weather area has been introduced. The Elevated area was also expanded farther across portions of the Northeast, along the Appalachians, and across the Southeast. ...Southwest... Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper low over portions of southern CA, which is forecast to move eastward into southwest AZ by this evening. As this occurs, strong mid-level flow is expected to overspread portions of the Desert Southwest. The latest surface observations suggest a very dry airmass is in place, with critical RH values already being observed. Strong/gusty surface winds are expected to develop over the next few hours, as a surface cyclone strengthens across the Lower Colorado River Basin. Higher-end critical fire weather conditions are possible across portions of Southern Arizona, where sustained winds near 30 mph and minimum RH values less than 10% are expected for a few hours this afternoon. Please see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Elliott.. 03/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the Desert Southwest as a larger-scale upper trough amplifies along the East Coast today. A surface cyclone will develop over the Lower Colorado River Basin, while a surface trough and accompanying cold front sweep across the Eastern Seaboard into the Southeast during the afternoon, encouraging dry and windy conditions across both meteorological regimes. Across the Lower Colorado River Basin, 20+ mph sustained southerly surface winds will coincide with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours around peak heating, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights given drying fuels. Likewise, fuels continue to dry from Virginia to Alabama, where the passage of the surface lee trough/cold front will support 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, that should shift to a northwesterly direction with time. RH will dip to at least 30 percent over several locales from the Mid Atlantic to the Southeast, where fuels remain receptive to wildfire spread and where Elevated highlights remain in place. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast... Latest high-resolution ensemble guidance continues to suggest a large area of elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions in the lee of the Appalachians and across the Southeast this afternoon. A very dry airmass has settled across the region in the wake of a dry cold front, with current surface observations indicating dewpoints between 25-35F. Highs near 70F today will support several hours of critical minimum RH values near 20-30% amidst receptive fuels and breezy downslope west/southwesterly surface winds. At this time, the best overlap of stronger surface winds (sustained winds near 20 mph and wind gusts 20-30 mph) and critical fuels appears to be across portions of western North and South Carolina, where a Critical fire weather area has been introduced. The Elevated area was also expanded farther across portions of the Northeast, along the Appalachians, and across the Southeast. ...Southwest... Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper low over portions of southern CA, which is forecast to move eastward into southwest AZ by this evening. As this occurs, strong mid-level flow is expected to overspread portions of the Desert Southwest. The latest surface observations suggest a very dry airmass is in place, with critical RH values already being observed. Strong/gusty surface winds are expected to develop over the next few hours, as a surface cyclone strengthens across the Lower Colorado River Basin. Higher-end critical fire weather conditions are possible across portions of Southern Arizona, where sustained winds near 30 mph and minimum RH values less than 10% are expected for a few hours this afternoon. Please see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Elliott.. 03/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the Desert Southwest as a larger-scale upper trough amplifies along the East Coast today. A surface cyclone will develop over the Lower Colorado River Basin, while a surface trough and accompanying cold front sweep across the Eastern Seaboard into the Southeast during the afternoon, encouraging dry and windy conditions across both meteorological regimes. Across the Lower Colorado River Basin, 20+ mph sustained southerly surface winds will coincide with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours around peak heating, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights given drying fuels. Likewise, fuels continue to dry from Virginia to Alabama, where the passage of the surface lee trough/cold front will support 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, that should shift to a northwesterly direction with time. RH will dip to at least 30 percent over several locales from the Mid Atlantic to the Southeast, where fuels remain receptive to wildfire spread and where Elevated highlights remain in place. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast... Latest high-resolution ensemble guidance continues to suggest a large area of elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions in the lee of the Appalachians and across the Southeast this afternoon. A very dry airmass has settled across the region in the wake of a dry cold front, with current surface observations indicating dewpoints between 25-35F. Highs near 70F today will support several hours of critical minimum RH values near 20-30% amidst receptive fuels and breezy downslope west/southwesterly surface winds. At this time, the best overlap of stronger surface winds (sustained winds near 20 mph and wind gusts 20-30 mph) and critical fuels appears to be across portions of western North and South Carolina, where a Critical fire weather area has been introduced. The Elevated area was also expanded farther across portions of the Northeast, along the Appalachians, and across the Southeast. ...Southwest... Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper low over portions of southern CA, which is forecast to move eastward into southwest AZ by this evening. As this occurs, strong mid-level flow is expected to overspread portions of the Desert Southwest. The latest surface observations suggest a very dry airmass is in place, with critical RH values already being observed. Strong/gusty surface winds are expected to develop over the next few hours, as a surface cyclone strengthens across the Lower Colorado River Basin. Higher-end critical fire weather conditions are possible across portions of Southern Arizona, where sustained winds near 30 mph and minimum RH values less than 10% are expected for a few hours this afternoon. Please see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Elliott.. 03/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the Desert Southwest as a larger-scale upper trough amplifies along the East Coast today. A surface cyclone will develop over the Lower Colorado River Basin, while a surface trough and accompanying cold front sweep across the Eastern Seaboard into the Southeast during the afternoon, encouraging dry and windy conditions across both meteorological regimes. Across the Lower Colorado River Basin, 20+ mph sustained southerly surface winds will coincide with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours around peak heating, warranting the maintenance of Critical highlights given drying fuels. Likewise, fuels continue to dry from Virginia to Alabama, where the passage of the surface lee trough/cold front will support 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, that should shift to a northwesterly direction with time. RH will dip to at least 30 percent over several locales from the Mid Atlantic to the Southeast, where fuels remain receptive to wildfire spread and where Elevated highlights remain in place. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... 12Z observed soundings, recent surface observations, and satellite-based precipitable water estimates across AZ show very little moisture present this morning. A closed upper low over southern CA and northern Baja California will continue to advance eastward across the Southwest through the period. While strong large-scale ascent and cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this feature, nearly all guidance shows a lack of even weak instability until later this evening, mainly on the subsident/backside of the upper low. While showers should eventually move across parts of AZ late this evening and overnight, the potential for thunderstorms appears less than 10% due to the very limited low-level moisture and instability forecast. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected across the remainder of the CONUS through tonight. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... 12Z observed soundings, recent surface observations, and satellite-based precipitable water estimates across AZ show very little moisture present this morning. A closed upper low over southern CA and northern Baja California will continue to advance eastward across the Southwest through the period. While strong large-scale ascent and cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this feature, nearly all guidance shows a lack of even weak instability until later this evening, mainly on the subsident/backside of the upper low. While showers should eventually move across parts of AZ late this evening and overnight, the potential for thunderstorms appears less than 10% due to the very limited low-level moisture and instability forecast. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected across the remainder of the CONUS through tonight. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... 12Z observed soundings, recent surface observations, and satellite-based precipitable water estimates across AZ show very little moisture present this morning. A closed upper low over southern CA and northern Baja California will continue to advance eastward across the Southwest through the period. While strong large-scale ascent and cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this feature, nearly all guidance shows a lack of even weak instability until later this evening, mainly on the subsident/backside of the upper low. While showers should eventually move across parts of AZ late this evening and overnight, the potential for thunderstorms appears less than 10% due to the very limited low-level moisture and instability forecast. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected across the remainder of the CONUS through tonight. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... 12Z observed soundings, recent surface observations, and satellite-based precipitable water estimates across AZ show very little moisture present this morning. A closed upper low over southern CA and northern Baja California will continue to advance eastward across the Southwest through the period. While strong large-scale ascent and cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this feature, nearly all guidance shows a lack of even weak instability until later this evening, mainly on the subsident/backside of the upper low. While showers should eventually move across parts of AZ late this evening and overnight, the potential for thunderstorms appears less than 10% due to the very limited low-level moisture and instability forecast. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected across the remainder of the CONUS through tonight. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... 12Z observed soundings, recent surface observations, and satellite-based precipitable water estimates across AZ show very little moisture present this morning. A closed upper low over southern CA and northern Baja California will continue to advance eastward across the Southwest through the period. While strong large-scale ascent and cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this feature, nearly all guidance shows a lack of even weak instability until later this evening, mainly on the subsident/backside of the upper low. While showers should eventually move across parts of AZ late this evening and overnight, the potential for thunderstorms appears less than 10% due to the very limited low-level moisture and instability forecast. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected across the remainder of the CONUS through tonight. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... 12Z observed soundings, recent surface observations, and satellite-based precipitable water estimates across AZ show very little moisture present this morning. A closed upper low over southern CA and northern Baja California will continue to advance eastward across the Southwest through the period. While strong large-scale ascent and cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this feature, nearly all guidance shows a lack of even weak instability until later this evening, mainly on the subsident/backside of the upper low. While showers should eventually move across parts of AZ late this evening and overnight, the potential for thunderstorms appears less than 10% due to the very limited low-level moisture and instability forecast. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected across the remainder of the CONUS through tonight. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... 12Z observed soundings, recent surface observations, and satellite-based precipitable water estimates across AZ show very little moisture present this morning. A closed upper low over southern CA and northern Baja California will continue to advance eastward across the Southwest through the period. While strong large-scale ascent and cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this feature, nearly all guidance shows a lack of even weak instability until later this evening, mainly on the subsident/backside of the upper low. While showers should eventually move across parts of AZ late this evening and overnight, the potential for thunderstorms appears less than 10% due to the very limited low-level moisture and instability forecast. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected across the remainder of the CONUS through tonight. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0616 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop over parts of northern Arizona. ...AZ... Morning water vapor loop shows an upper low off the coast of southern CA approaching SAN. This feature will track eastward into southwest AZ by this evening. The low-level environment will be quite dry across AZ, limiting coverage of precipitation later today. However, steep lapse rates near the upper low and rather strong forcing in the left-front quadrant of an approaching mid/upper jet max may encourage widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms over parts of northern and central AZ - mainly late this afternoon into the evening. Very weak instability will preclude a risk of severe storms. ..Hart/Grams.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0616 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop over parts of northern Arizona. ...AZ... Morning water vapor loop shows an upper low off the coast of southern CA approaching SAN. This feature will track eastward into southwest AZ by this evening. The low-level environment will be quite dry across AZ, limiting coverage of precipitation later today. However, steep lapse rates near the upper low and rather strong forcing in the left-front quadrant of an approaching mid/upper jet max may encourage widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms over parts of northern and central AZ - mainly late this afternoon into the evening. Very weak instability will preclude a risk of severe storms. ..Hart/Grams.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0616 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop over parts of northern Arizona. ...AZ... Morning water vapor loop shows an upper low off the coast of southern CA approaching SAN. This feature will track eastward into southwest AZ by this evening. The low-level environment will be quite dry across AZ, limiting coverage of precipitation later today. However, steep lapse rates near the upper low and rather strong forcing in the left-front quadrant of an approaching mid/upper jet max may encourage widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms over parts of northern and central AZ - mainly late this afternoon into the evening. Very weak instability will preclude a risk of severe storms. ..Hart/Grams.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0616 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop over parts of northern Arizona. ...AZ... Morning water vapor loop shows an upper low off the coast of southern CA approaching SAN. This feature will track eastward into southwest AZ by this evening. The low-level environment will be quite dry across AZ, limiting coverage of precipitation later today. However, steep lapse rates near the upper low and rather strong forcing in the left-front quadrant of an approaching mid/upper jet max may encourage widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms over parts of northern and central AZ - mainly late this afternoon into the evening. Very weak instability will preclude a risk of severe storms. ..Hart/Grams.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0616 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop over parts of northern Arizona. ...AZ... Morning water vapor loop shows an upper low off the coast of southern CA approaching SAN. This feature will track eastward into southwest AZ by this evening. The low-level environment will be quite dry across AZ, limiting coverage of precipitation later today. However, steep lapse rates near the upper low and rather strong forcing in the left-front quadrant of an approaching mid/upper jet max may encourage widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms over parts of northern and central AZ - mainly late this afternoon into the evening. Very weak instability will preclude a risk of severe storms. ..Hart/Grams.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0616 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop over parts of northern Arizona. ...AZ... Morning water vapor loop shows an upper low off the coast of southern CA approaching SAN. This feature will track eastward into southwest AZ by this evening. The low-level environment will be quite dry across AZ, limiting coverage of precipitation later today. However, steep lapse rates near the upper low and rather strong forcing in the left-front quadrant of an approaching mid/upper jet max may encourage widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms over parts of northern and central AZ - mainly late this afternoon into the evening. Very weak instability will preclude a risk of severe storms. ..Hart/Grams.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0616 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop over parts of northern Arizona. ...AZ... Morning water vapor loop shows an upper low off the coast of southern CA approaching SAN. This feature will track eastward into southwest AZ by this evening. The low-level environment will be quite dry across AZ, limiting coverage of precipitation later today. However, steep lapse rates near the upper low and rather strong forcing in the left-front quadrant of an approaching mid/upper jet max may encourage widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms over parts of northern and central AZ - mainly late this afternoon into the evening. Very weak instability will preclude a risk of severe storms. ..Hart/Grams.. 03/01/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output continues to indicate that strong cyclogenesis will be underway to the lee of the Rockies by 12Z Tuesday, as an intense mid/upper jet streak (probably including 100+ kt at 500 mb) noses northeast of the Texas Big Bend. The center of an evolving broad and deep surface cyclone is generally forecast to track from the central Great Plains through the lower Great Lakes region by late Wednesday night, accompanied by a broad area of intensifying lower-tropospheric wind fields. This probably will include wind profiles characterized by strong deep-layer shear and large, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs within the evolving warm sector. With guidance indicating an influx of lower/mid 60s F surface dew points across at least the lower Mississippi Valley during the day Tuesday, there appears considerable potential for sufficient destabilization to support severe convection, including organizing lines and supercells. However, uncertainties linger, perhaps including some signal that some combination of low cloud cover, limited surface heating and relatively warm, dry layers aloft with modest lapse rates could impede destabilization. Variability among the model output concerning the evolution of a number of synoptic and sub-synoptic details could also considerably impact the extent and location of stronger convective development. In a broad sense, though, it still appears that the environment centered across and just east of the lower Mississippi Valley will become most conducive to thunderstorms potentially capable of producing damaging straight-line winds and a few tornadoes Tuesday into Tuesday night. This threat may wane by late Tuesday night across the Tennessee Valley/eastern Gulf Coast states as Gulf moisture return becomes cut off. However, an influx of low-level moisture off the Atlantic might contribute to a rejuvenation strong to severe thunderstorm potential ahead of an eastward advancing cold front across parts of the southern and middle Atlantic Seaboard on Wednesday. Read more