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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop over parts of northern Arizona. ...Northern Arizona... Latest satellite imagery suggests a strong upper low has settled off the CA Coast. This feature will begin to eject inland as 100kt 500mb speed max translates across the northern Baja Peninsula, ultimately advancing into NM by the end of the period. This evolution will contribute to seasonally cold mid-level temperatures spreading across the lower CO River Valley into northern AZ by mid-late afternoon. Focused exit region of this jet will aid large-scale forcing such that mid-level moistening is expected within steepening lapse rates, though overall moisture content will remain quite low. NAM forecast sounding for GCN at 02/00z exhibits near-dry adiabatic lapse rates through 6km which contributes to SBCAPE on the order of 100 J/kg. Given the very cold temperatures it appears shallow, high-based convection may generate a few flashes of lightning, though precipitation will be limited among very sparse storms. Nocturnal cooling will lessen the risk of lightning. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop over parts of northern Arizona. ...Northern Arizona... Latest satellite imagery suggests a strong upper low has settled off the CA Coast. This feature will begin to eject inland as 100kt 500mb speed max translates across the northern Baja Peninsula, ultimately advancing into NM by the end of the period. This evolution will contribute to seasonally cold mid-level temperatures spreading across the lower CO River Valley into northern AZ by mid-late afternoon. Focused exit region of this jet will aid large-scale forcing such that mid-level moistening is expected within steepening lapse rates, though overall moisture content will remain quite low. NAM forecast sounding for GCN at 02/00z exhibits near-dry adiabatic lapse rates through 6km which contributes to SBCAPE on the order of 100 J/kg. Given the very cold temperatures it appears shallow, high-based convection may generate a few flashes of lightning, though precipitation will be limited among very sparse storms. Nocturnal cooling will lessen the risk of lightning. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may develop over parts of northern Arizona. ...Northern Arizona... Latest satellite imagery suggests a strong upper low has settled off the CA Coast. This feature will begin to eject inland as 100kt 500mb speed max translates across the northern Baja Peninsula, ultimately advancing into NM by the end of the period. This evolution will contribute to seasonally cold mid-level temperatures spreading across the lower CO River Valley into northern AZ by mid-late afternoon. Focused exit region of this jet will aid large-scale forcing such that mid-level moistening is expected within steepening lapse rates, though overall moisture content will remain quite low. NAM forecast sounding for GCN at 02/00z exhibits near-dry adiabatic lapse rates through 6km which contributes to SBCAPE on the order of 100 J/kg. Given the very cold temperatures it appears shallow, high-based convection may generate a few flashes of lightning, though precipitation will be limited among very sparse storms. Nocturnal cooling will lessen the risk of lightning. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 03/01/2025 Read more

Officials from the village of Carrollton met with a company looking into building a power plant that needs to purchase water for operation. The Carrollton officials declined the opportunity because the village was still running low on water after drought in 2024. Carrollton Free Press Standard (Ohio), Feb 28, 2025

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely tonight. ...01z Update... Dry, mostly stable conditions are noted across the lower 48 early this evening. While a strong upper low is digging southeast, just off the southern CA Coast, buoyancy should remain inadequate along the northeastern periphery of this feature to warrant any meaningful risk for thunderstorms tonight. ..Darrow.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely tonight. ...01z Update... Dry, mostly stable conditions are noted across the lower 48 early this evening. While a strong upper low is digging southeast, just off the southern CA Coast, buoyancy should remain inadequate along the northeastern periphery of this feature to warrant any meaningful risk for thunderstorms tonight. ..Darrow.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely tonight. ...01z Update... Dry, mostly stable conditions are noted across the lower 48 early this evening. While a strong upper low is digging southeast, just off the southern CA Coast, buoyancy should remain inadequate along the northeastern periphery of this feature to warrant any meaningful risk for thunderstorms tonight. ..Darrow.. 03/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely tonight. ...01z Update... Dry, mostly stable conditions are noted across the lower 48 early this evening. While a strong upper low is digging southeast, just off the southern CA Coast, buoyancy should remain inadequate along the northeastern periphery of this feature to warrant any meaningful risk for thunderstorms tonight. ..Darrow.. 03/01/2025 Read more

Canyon Lake was 48.5% full and 29.5 feet low on Feb. 28. A new daily record low is set with each passing day as the lake has not been this low since it filled in the 1960s. All 23 boat ramps on the lake, including the one on the Guadalupe River just above the lake, were closed to public access. Only boat ramp 19 was open to members of Canyon Lake Marina. Now it is legal for the public to launch non-motorized watercraft like canoes or kayaks from county boat ramps 1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 8, 11, 22, and 23. News 4 San Antonio (Texas), Feb 28, 2025

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Critical fire weather conditions are expected this weekend and into early next week across portions of the southern High Plains. An active and progressive mid-level flow pattern will result in multiple strong troughs passing over the southern US through this weekend and next week. Persistent dry conditions across AZ, NM, and much of OK/TX has resulted in an expanding swath of receptive fuels. The presence of very strong winds, and multiple days of low RH will support widespread critical fire-weather concerns through the extended forecast period. ...Southern Plains... A series of strong mid-level troughs will rapidly progress eastward over the Southern Plains late this weekend and early next week. The first trough (D3/Sun) will move rapidly across the TX Panhandle and western OK as a strong surface low deepens. In the wake of the low, southwesterly low-level flow, aided by a 60-80 kt 500 mb speed max, will likely reach 25-30 mph with higher gusts. Post-dryline conditions will support low RH through the afternoon. Given the presence of very dry and locally heavy herbaceous fuel loading, widespread, potentially significant, critical fire-weather conditions are likely. Some uncertainty remains on the exact corridor of critical conditions given differences in the track of the surface low and the potential for some precipitation Sunday evening. Westerly flow aloft will quickly strengthen again D4/Mon as the second larger trough rapidly deepens over the Four Corners. The strengthening flow aloft will overspread a very warm and dry air mass across eastern NM and western TX. The very strong kinematic fields will likely result in a more robust low-level mass response as a surface low develops late D4/Mon into D5/Tues. While the exact details on the placement and strength of the low remain unclear, widespread and potentially high-end critical fire-weather conditions are possible from eastern NM and western OK to central TX given the state of ongoing drought. Through the remainder of the week fire-weather concerns should be lower as cooler temperatures and some precipitation look to temporarily dampen fuels. ...Eastern US... As western US troughing intensifies through the week, eastern ridging should also steadily build, supporting a period of warm temperatures and dry conditions. As the strong trough/low move eastward over the central US D6/Wed, some strong winds along the cold front may overlap with the dry fuels. At least some risk for localized fire-weather conditions will be possible. ..Lyons.. 02/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

A Bethlehem farmer remarked on the brown color of his field, noting that it ought to be almost a green carpet or at least have green vegetation. The winter wheat ought to be three to six inches tall, but rows were not visible. WFMZ 69 News Online (Allentown, Pa.), Feb 26, 2025

A corn grower in San Patricio County halted planting due to freezing temperatures and dry soil. Farmers typically aim to get the crop planted before Valentine’s Day, so one would typically see planters in use. Successful Farming (Des Moines, Iowa), Feb 27, 2025

No watches are valid as of Fri Feb 28 00:58:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Feb 28 00:58:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible this evening, primarily across parts of the Mid/Upper Ohio Valley vicinity. ...01z Update... Strong upper trough is advancing across the OH/TN Valley region early this evening. Strong height falls will spread across the Mid Atlantic/Carolinas as the primary synoptic front shifts off the Atlantic Coast by 06z. Isolated thunderstorms continue ahead of a weaker, secondary surface boundary over the OH Valley, but this activity should gradually wane as the boundary layer cools and low-level lapse rates weaken. While a few storms may briefly produce small hail or gusty winds for the next hour or so, severe threat appears negligible the rest of tonight. ..Darrow.. 02/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible this evening, primarily across parts of the Mid/Upper Ohio Valley vicinity. ...01z Update... Strong upper trough is advancing across the OH/TN Valley region early this evening. Strong height falls will spread across the Mid Atlantic/Carolinas as the primary synoptic front shifts off the Atlantic Coast by 06z. Isolated thunderstorms continue ahead of a weaker, secondary surface boundary over the OH Valley, but this activity should gradually wane as the boundary layer cools and low-level lapse rates weaken. While a few storms may briefly produce small hail or gusty winds for the next hour or so, severe threat appears negligible the rest of tonight. ..Darrow.. 02/28/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Feb 27 23:46:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Feb 27 23:46:01 UTC 2025.