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MD 0120 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF INDIANA AND OHIO...AND FAR NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0120 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Areas affected...parts of Indiana and Ohio...and far northern Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 272119Z - 272345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Damaging gusts and perhaps a couple marginally-severe hailstones are possible this afternoon across parts of Ohio, eastern Indiana, and far northern Kentucky. A watch is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...A 500 mb trough axis is situated over portions of the Ohio Valley this afternoon with very cold temperatures aloft (approximately -30 C at 500 mb per RAP analyses). This is atop a post-frontal air mass with surface dewpoints generally in the upper 30s F, resulting in MLCAPE values of 300-400 J/kg with steep lapse rates. Convective temperature has been reached in portions of southwest Ohio, where low-topped convection has been ongoing, and additional low-topped convection is developing along a weak cold front across portions of northern Indiana and northwest Ohio. Given the steep lapse rates, low freezing level, straight hodograph, and the fact that most or all of the buoyancy is above the freezing level, a few marginally-severe hailstones may occur. The primary limiting factors for severe hail is expected to be the low-topped nature of the convection and slightly marginal deep-layer shear. Additionally, flow in the boundary layer is not overly strong, with 850 mb winds of approximately 30 kts, but convection may mix that down to the surface and provide some enhancement to produce a few damaging gusts. The convection, and therefore the severe threat, is expected to wane later in the afternoon and evening as storms move to the east and east-southeast with the loss of diurnal heating. ..Supinie/Gleason.. 02/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND... LAT...LON 39168552 39928598 40938617 41238537 41478430 41178300 40718205 40258168 39778163 39458178 39008204 38748242 38568349 38618437 38708486 39168552 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Critical fire weather conditions are expected this weekend and into early next week across portions of the southern High Plains. Long-range guidance continues to show very good agreement in the evolution of the upper-level regime through the extended period as a series of shortwave troughs migrate across the Southwest into the southern Plains and OH Valley beginning this weekend and into the middle of the upcoming work week. Persistent dry conditions across AZ, NM, and much of OK/TX has resulted in an expanding swath of receptive fuels with most locations now reporting ERCs near or above the 80th percentile and 10-hour fuel moisture below 10%. This fuel environment will support fire spread as surface winds increase with the passage of these upper disturbances. ...D3/Sat to D4/Sun - Southwest/Southern High Plains... The first of two waves is currently off the CA coast and is expected to move into the lower CO River Valley over the next 72 hours. As this occurs, surface pressure falls across the Four Corners region will promote a widespread swath of 15-25 mph winds from southeast AZ into NM. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely as RH values fall into the teens/low 20s, and critical conditions are possible along the AZ/NM border based on windier/drier ensemble solutions. A stronger wind signal is noted across the southern High Plains on D4/Sunday as a lee cyclone deepens across the region. Post-dryline winds will likely exceed 20 mph, though the coverage of the wind swath remains uncertain due to spread in the exact location of the surface low in deterministic/ensemble guidance. Additionally, some solutions hint at scattered showers across the TX Panhandle into western OK. A 70% risk area has been introduced to southeast NM/west TX where confidence in critical conditions is highest, but critical conditions are possible across the TX Panhandle if the low develops on the northern end of the ensemble envelope across southeast CO/southwest KS and precipitation amounts are minimal. ...D5/Mon to D6/Tue - Southwest and Southern High Plains... A repeat of the Sat/Sun sequence is expected on Mon/Tue as a second, more amplified, upper trough translates across the Southwest and southern High Plains. The stronger kinematic fields associated with the second wave will likely result in a more robust low-level mass response as a surface low develops late Monday into Tuesday over the High Plains. While critical wind speeds are possible both days, both GEFS and ECENS guidance depicts the strongest signal on D6/Tuesday across southeast NM into southwest TX. Some solutions, including the 12z ECMWF, which typically has a weak wind bias, show the potential for a swath of 30 mph winds under the mid-level jet. While exact details remain uncertain at this range, the overall signal has been consistent enough through multiple model runs to support 70% risk probabilities. ..Moore.. 02/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Critical fire weather conditions are expected this weekend and into early next week across portions of the southern High Plains. Long-range guidance continues to show very good agreement in the evolution of the upper-level regime through the extended period as a series of shortwave troughs migrate across the Southwest into the southern Plains and OH Valley beginning this weekend and into the middle of the upcoming work week. Persistent dry conditions across AZ, NM, and much of OK/TX has resulted in an expanding swath of receptive fuels with most locations now reporting ERCs near or above the 80th percentile and 10-hour fuel moisture below 10%. This fuel environment will support fire spread as surface winds increase with the passage of these upper disturbances. ...D3/Sat to D4/Sun - Southwest/Southern High Plains... The first of two waves is currently off the CA coast and is expected to move into the lower CO River Valley over the next 72 hours. As this occurs, surface pressure falls across the Four Corners region will promote a widespread swath of 15-25 mph winds from southeast AZ into NM. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely as RH values fall into the teens/low 20s, and critical conditions are possible along the AZ/NM border based on windier/drier ensemble solutions. A stronger wind signal is noted across the southern High Plains on D4/Sunday as a lee cyclone deepens across the region. Post-dryline winds will likely exceed 20 mph, though the coverage of the wind swath remains uncertain due to spread in the exact location of the surface low in deterministic/ensemble guidance. Additionally, some solutions hint at scattered showers across the TX Panhandle into western OK. A 70% risk area has been introduced to southeast NM/west TX where confidence in critical conditions is highest, but critical conditions are possible across the TX Panhandle if the low develops on the northern end of the ensemble envelope across southeast CO/southwest KS and precipitation amounts are minimal. ...D5/Mon to D6/Tue - Southwest and Southern High Plains... A repeat of the Sat/Sun sequence is expected on Mon/Tue as a second, more amplified, upper trough translates across the Southwest and southern High Plains. The stronger kinematic fields associated with the second wave will likely result in a more robust low-level mass response as a surface low develops late Monday into Tuesday over the High Plains. While critical wind speeds are possible both days, both GEFS and ECENS guidance depicts the strongest signal on D6/Tuesday across southeast NM into southwest TX. Some solutions, including the 12z ECMWF, which typically has a weak wind bias, show the potential for a swath of 30 mph winds under the mid-level jet. While exact details remain uncertain at this range, the overall signal has been consistent enough through multiple model runs to support 70% risk probabilities. ..Moore.. 02/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Critical fire weather conditions are expected this weekend and into early next week across portions of the southern High Plains. Long-range guidance continues to show very good agreement in the evolution of the upper-level regime through the extended period as a series of shortwave troughs migrate across the Southwest into the southern Plains and OH Valley beginning this weekend and into the middle of the upcoming work week. Persistent dry conditions across AZ, NM, and much of OK/TX has resulted in an expanding swath of receptive fuels with most locations now reporting ERCs near or above the 80th percentile and 10-hour fuel moisture below 10%. This fuel environment will support fire spread as surface winds increase with the passage of these upper disturbances. ...D3/Sat to D4/Sun - Southwest/Southern High Plains... The first of two waves is currently off the CA coast and is expected to move into the lower CO River Valley over the next 72 hours. As this occurs, surface pressure falls across the Four Corners region will promote a widespread swath of 15-25 mph winds from southeast AZ into NM. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely as RH values fall into the teens/low 20s, and critical conditions are possible along the AZ/NM border based on windier/drier ensemble solutions. A stronger wind signal is noted across the southern High Plains on D4/Sunday as a lee cyclone deepens across the region. Post-dryline winds will likely exceed 20 mph, though the coverage of the wind swath remains uncertain due to spread in the exact location of the surface low in deterministic/ensemble guidance. Additionally, some solutions hint at scattered showers across the TX Panhandle into western OK. A 70% risk area has been introduced to southeast NM/west TX where confidence in critical conditions is highest, but critical conditions are possible across the TX Panhandle if the low develops on the northern end of the ensemble envelope across southeast CO/southwest KS and precipitation amounts are minimal. ...D5/Mon to D6/Tue - Southwest and Southern High Plains... A repeat of the Sat/Sun sequence is expected on Mon/Tue as a second, more amplified, upper trough translates across the Southwest and southern High Plains. The stronger kinematic fields associated with the second wave will likely result in a more robust low-level mass response as a surface low develops late Monday into Tuesday over the High Plains. While critical wind speeds are possible both days, both GEFS and ECENS guidance depicts the strongest signal on D6/Tuesday across southeast NM into southwest TX. Some solutions, including the 12z ECMWF, which typically has a weak wind bias, show the potential for a swath of 30 mph winds under the mid-level jet. While exact details remain uncertain at this range, the overall signal has been consistent enough through multiple model runs to support 70% risk probabilities. ..Moore.. 02/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Critical fire weather conditions are expected this weekend and into early next week across portions of the southern High Plains. Long-range guidance continues to show very good agreement in the evolution of the upper-level regime through the extended period as a series of shortwave troughs migrate across the Southwest into the southern Plains and OH Valley beginning this weekend and into the middle of the upcoming work week. Persistent dry conditions across AZ, NM, and much of OK/TX has resulted in an expanding swath of receptive fuels with most locations now reporting ERCs near or above the 80th percentile and 10-hour fuel moisture below 10%. This fuel environment will support fire spread as surface winds increase with the passage of these upper disturbances. ...D3/Sat to D4/Sun - Southwest/Southern High Plains... The first of two waves is currently off the CA coast and is expected to move into the lower CO River Valley over the next 72 hours. As this occurs, surface pressure falls across the Four Corners region will promote a widespread swath of 15-25 mph winds from southeast AZ into NM. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely as RH values fall into the teens/low 20s, and critical conditions are possible along the AZ/NM border based on windier/drier ensemble solutions. A stronger wind signal is noted across the southern High Plains on D4/Sunday as a lee cyclone deepens across the region. Post-dryline winds will likely exceed 20 mph, though the coverage of the wind swath remains uncertain due to spread in the exact location of the surface low in deterministic/ensemble guidance. Additionally, some solutions hint at scattered showers across the TX Panhandle into western OK. A 70% risk area has been introduced to southeast NM/west TX where confidence in critical conditions is highest, but critical conditions are possible across the TX Panhandle if the low develops on the northern end of the ensemble envelope across southeast CO/southwest KS and precipitation amounts are minimal. ...D5/Mon to D6/Tue - Southwest and Southern High Plains... A repeat of the Sat/Sun sequence is expected on Mon/Tue as a second, more amplified, upper trough translates across the Southwest and southern High Plains. The stronger kinematic fields associated with the second wave will likely result in a more robust low-level mass response as a surface low develops late Monday into Tuesday over the High Plains. While critical wind speeds are possible both days, both GEFS and ECENS guidance depicts the strongest signal on D6/Tuesday across southeast NM into southwest TX. Some solutions, including the 12z ECMWF, which typically has a weak wind bias, show the potential for a swath of 30 mph winds under the mid-level jet. While exact details remain uncertain at this range, the overall signal has been consistent enough through multiple model runs to support 70% risk probabilities. ..Moore.. 02/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Critical fire weather conditions are expected this weekend and into early next week across portions of the southern High Plains. Long-range guidance continues to show very good agreement in the evolution of the upper-level regime through the extended period as a series of shortwave troughs migrate across the Southwest into the southern Plains and OH Valley beginning this weekend and into the middle of the upcoming work week. Persistent dry conditions across AZ, NM, and much of OK/TX has resulted in an expanding swath of receptive fuels with most locations now reporting ERCs near or above the 80th percentile and 10-hour fuel moisture below 10%. This fuel environment will support fire spread as surface winds increase with the passage of these upper disturbances. ...D3/Sat to D4/Sun - Southwest/Southern High Plains... The first of two waves is currently off the CA coast and is expected to move into the lower CO River Valley over the next 72 hours. As this occurs, surface pressure falls across the Four Corners region will promote a widespread swath of 15-25 mph winds from southeast AZ into NM. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely as RH values fall into the teens/low 20s, and critical conditions are possible along the AZ/NM border based on windier/drier ensemble solutions. A stronger wind signal is noted across the southern High Plains on D4/Sunday as a lee cyclone deepens across the region. Post-dryline winds will likely exceed 20 mph, though the coverage of the wind swath remains uncertain due to spread in the exact location of the surface low in deterministic/ensemble guidance. Additionally, some solutions hint at scattered showers across the TX Panhandle into western OK. A 70% risk area has been introduced to southeast NM/west TX where confidence in critical conditions is highest, but critical conditions are possible across the TX Panhandle if the low develops on the northern end of the ensemble envelope across southeast CO/southwest KS and precipitation amounts are minimal. ...D5/Mon to D6/Tue - Southwest and Southern High Plains... A repeat of the Sat/Sun sequence is expected on Mon/Tue as a second, more amplified, upper trough translates across the Southwest and southern High Plains. The stronger kinematic fields associated with the second wave will likely result in a more robust low-level mass response as a surface low develops late Monday into Tuesday over the High Plains. While critical wind speeds are possible both days, both GEFS and ECENS guidance depicts the strongest signal on D6/Tuesday across southeast NM into southwest TX. Some solutions, including the 12z ECMWF, which typically has a weak wind bias, show the potential for a swath of 30 mph winds under the mid-level jet. While exact details remain uncertain at this range, the overall signal has been consistent enough through multiple model runs to support 70% risk probabilities. ..Moore.. 02/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Critical fire weather conditions are expected this weekend and into early next week across portions of the southern High Plains. Long-range guidance continues to show very good agreement in the evolution of the upper-level regime through the extended period as a series of shortwave troughs migrate across the Southwest into the southern Plains and OH Valley beginning this weekend and into the middle of the upcoming work week. Persistent dry conditions across AZ, NM, and much of OK/TX has resulted in an expanding swath of receptive fuels with most locations now reporting ERCs near or above the 80th percentile and 10-hour fuel moisture below 10%. This fuel environment will support fire spread as surface winds increase with the passage of these upper disturbances. ...D3/Sat to D4/Sun - Southwest/Southern High Plains... The first of two waves is currently off the CA coast and is expected to move into the lower CO River Valley over the next 72 hours. As this occurs, surface pressure falls across the Four Corners region will promote a widespread swath of 15-25 mph winds from southeast AZ into NM. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely as RH values fall into the teens/low 20s, and critical conditions are possible along the AZ/NM border based on windier/drier ensemble solutions. A stronger wind signal is noted across the southern High Plains on D4/Sunday as a lee cyclone deepens across the region. Post-dryline winds will likely exceed 20 mph, though the coverage of the wind swath remains uncertain due to spread in the exact location of the surface low in deterministic/ensemble guidance. Additionally, some solutions hint at scattered showers across the TX Panhandle into western OK. A 70% risk area has been introduced to southeast NM/west TX where confidence in critical conditions is highest, but critical conditions are possible across the TX Panhandle if the low develops on the northern end of the ensemble envelope across southeast CO/southwest KS and precipitation amounts are minimal. ...D5/Mon to D6/Tue - Southwest and Southern High Plains... A repeat of the Sat/Sun sequence is expected on Mon/Tue as a second, more amplified, upper trough translates across the Southwest and southern High Plains. The stronger kinematic fields associated with the second wave will likely result in a more robust low-level mass response as a surface low develops late Monday into Tuesday over the High Plains. While critical wind speeds are possible both days, both GEFS and ECENS guidance depicts the strongest signal on D6/Tuesday across southeast NM into southwest TX. Some solutions, including the 12z ECMWF, which typically has a weak wind bias, show the potential for a swath of 30 mph winds under the mid-level jet. While exact details remain uncertain at this range, the overall signal has been consistent enough through multiple model runs to support 70% risk probabilities. ..Moore.. 02/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Critical fire weather conditions are expected this weekend and into early next week across portions of the southern High Plains. Long-range guidance continues to show very good agreement in the evolution of the upper-level regime through the extended period as a series of shortwave troughs migrate across the Southwest into the southern Plains and OH Valley beginning this weekend and into the middle of the upcoming work week. Persistent dry conditions across AZ, NM, and much of OK/TX has resulted in an expanding swath of receptive fuels with most locations now reporting ERCs near or above the 80th percentile and 10-hour fuel moisture below 10%. This fuel environment will support fire spread as surface winds increase with the passage of these upper disturbances. ...D3/Sat to D4/Sun - Southwest/Southern High Plains... The first of two waves is currently off the CA coast and is expected to move into the lower CO River Valley over the next 72 hours. As this occurs, surface pressure falls across the Four Corners region will promote a widespread swath of 15-25 mph winds from southeast AZ into NM. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely as RH values fall into the teens/low 20s, and critical conditions are possible along the AZ/NM border based on windier/drier ensemble solutions. A stronger wind signal is noted across the southern High Plains on D4/Sunday as a lee cyclone deepens across the region. Post-dryline winds will likely exceed 20 mph, though the coverage of the wind swath remains uncertain due to spread in the exact location of the surface low in deterministic/ensemble guidance. Additionally, some solutions hint at scattered showers across the TX Panhandle into western OK. A 70% risk area has been introduced to southeast NM/west TX where confidence in critical conditions is highest, but critical conditions are possible across the TX Panhandle if the low develops on the northern end of the ensemble envelope across southeast CO/southwest KS and precipitation amounts are minimal. ...D5/Mon to D6/Tue - Southwest and Southern High Plains... A repeat of the Sat/Sun sequence is expected on Mon/Tue as a second, more amplified, upper trough translates across the Southwest and southern High Plains. The stronger kinematic fields associated with the second wave will likely result in a more robust low-level mass response as a surface low develops late Monday into Tuesday over the High Plains. While critical wind speeds are possible both days, both GEFS and ECENS guidance depicts the strongest signal on D6/Tuesday across southeast NM into southwest TX. Some solutions, including the 12z ECMWF, which typically has a weak wind bias, show the potential for a swath of 30 mph winds under the mid-level jet. While exact details remain uncertain at this range, the overall signal has been consistent enough through multiple model runs to support 70% risk probabilities. ..Moore.. 02/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Trout grown at a hatchery in Monroe County were a little smaller than usual due to slightly reduced water flow in area streams as waterways had not fully recovered from last summer’s drought. WNEP (Moosic, Pa.), Feb 27, 2025

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Mid/Upper Ohio Valley, and Carolinas into central Georgia. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur this afternoon and early evening across portions of the Upper Ohio Valley vicinity. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and very minimal changes were made with this update. Isolated to widely scattered low-topped thunderstorms are developing within a weak low-level convergence zone across southwestern Ohio and southeastern Indiana this afternoon, with additional development northward along the surface trough in northern Indiana. This activity will continue tracking/developing east-southeastward into this evening, and any small clusters that evolve will be capable of producing strong to locally damaging wind gusts and small hail. For additional information, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 02/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025/ ...Upper Ohio Valley... Very cold mid-level temperatures (around -30 C at 500 mb) will overspread OH and vicinity this afternoon, as the primary upper trough pivots eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. The airmass across this region is behind the main cold front, and low-level moisture will admittedly remain quite limited (surface dewpoints generally in the 30s to low 40s). Even so, the combination of modest daytime heating, coupled with cooling temperatures aloft and steepening low/mid-level lapse rates, should allow for weak MLCAPE to develop across parts of the Upper OH Valley through late this afternoon. Low/mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong through much of the day, but some increase in westerly boundary-layer flow is anticipated this afternoon. Current expectations are for at least isolated thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and early evening as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads this region, and as a weak secondary surface trough/wind shift moves southeastward. Given the steepened lapse rate environment, some of this convection may be capable of producing occasional strong to damaging winds and small hail. Accordingly, a Marginal Risk has been added across parts of OH, northeast KY, and WV, where the greatest concentration of thunderstorms with some wind threat is anticipated. ...Georgia into the Carolinas... Modest instability should develop later today across parts of central GA into the Carolinas ahead of a cold front amid increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal heating. This should support a chance for isolated thunderstorms to develop across these areas as the cold front continues east-southeastward. While small hail and gusty winds may occur with the more robust thunderstorms, the mainly anafrontal and elevated convective structure will likely limit the overall severe potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Mid/Upper Ohio Valley, and Carolinas into central Georgia. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur this afternoon and early evening across portions of the Upper Ohio Valley vicinity. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and very minimal changes were made with this update. Isolated to widely scattered low-topped thunderstorms are developing within a weak low-level convergence zone across southwestern Ohio and southeastern Indiana this afternoon, with additional development northward along the surface trough in northern Indiana. This activity will continue tracking/developing east-southeastward into this evening, and any small clusters that evolve will be capable of producing strong to locally damaging wind gusts and small hail. For additional information, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 02/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025/ ...Upper Ohio Valley... Very cold mid-level temperatures (around -30 C at 500 mb) will overspread OH and vicinity this afternoon, as the primary upper trough pivots eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. The airmass across this region is behind the main cold front, and low-level moisture will admittedly remain quite limited (surface dewpoints generally in the 30s to low 40s). Even so, the combination of modest daytime heating, coupled with cooling temperatures aloft and steepening low/mid-level lapse rates, should allow for weak MLCAPE to develop across parts of the Upper OH Valley through late this afternoon. Low/mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong through much of the day, but some increase in westerly boundary-layer flow is anticipated this afternoon. Current expectations are for at least isolated thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and early evening as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads this region, and as a weak secondary surface trough/wind shift moves southeastward. Given the steepened lapse rate environment, some of this convection may be capable of producing occasional strong to damaging winds and small hail. Accordingly, a Marginal Risk has been added across parts of OH, northeast KY, and WV, where the greatest concentration of thunderstorms with some wind threat is anticipated. ...Georgia into the Carolinas... Modest instability should develop later today across parts of central GA into the Carolinas ahead of a cold front amid increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal heating. This should support a chance for isolated thunderstorms to develop across these areas as the cold front continues east-southeastward. While small hail and gusty winds may occur with the more robust thunderstorms, the mainly anafrontal and elevated convective structure will likely limit the overall severe potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Mid/Upper Ohio Valley, and Carolinas into central Georgia. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur this afternoon and early evening across portions of the Upper Ohio Valley vicinity. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and very minimal changes were made with this update. Isolated to widely scattered low-topped thunderstorms are developing within a weak low-level convergence zone across southwestern Ohio and southeastern Indiana this afternoon, with additional development northward along the surface trough in northern Indiana. This activity will continue tracking/developing east-southeastward into this evening, and any small clusters that evolve will be capable of producing strong to locally damaging wind gusts and small hail. For additional information, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 02/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025/ ...Upper Ohio Valley... Very cold mid-level temperatures (around -30 C at 500 mb) will overspread OH and vicinity this afternoon, as the primary upper trough pivots eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. The airmass across this region is behind the main cold front, and low-level moisture will admittedly remain quite limited (surface dewpoints generally in the 30s to low 40s). Even so, the combination of modest daytime heating, coupled with cooling temperatures aloft and steepening low/mid-level lapse rates, should allow for weak MLCAPE to develop across parts of the Upper OH Valley through late this afternoon. Low/mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong through much of the day, but some increase in westerly boundary-layer flow is anticipated this afternoon. Current expectations are for at least isolated thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and early evening as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads this region, and as a weak secondary surface trough/wind shift moves southeastward. Given the steepened lapse rate environment, some of this convection may be capable of producing occasional strong to damaging winds and small hail. Accordingly, a Marginal Risk has been added across parts of OH, northeast KY, and WV, where the greatest concentration of thunderstorms with some wind threat is anticipated. ...Georgia into the Carolinas... Modest instability should develop later today across parts of central GA into the Carolinas ahead of a cold front amid increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal heating. This should support a chance for isolated thunderstorms to develop across these areas as the cold front continues east-southeastward. While small hail and gusty winds may occur with the more robust thunderstorms, the mainly anafrontal and elevated convective structure will likely limit the overall severe potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Mid/Upper Ohio Valley, and Carolinas into central Georgia. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur this afternoon and early evening across portions of the Upper Ohio Valley vicinity. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and very minimal changes were made with this update. Isolated to widely scattered low-topped thunderstorms are developing within a weak low-level convergence zone across southwestern Ohio and southeastern Indiana this afternoon, with additional development northward along the surface trough in northern Indiana. This activity will continue tracking/developing east-southeastward into this evening, and any small clusters that evolve will be capable of producing strong to locally damaging wind gusts and small hail. For additional information, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 02/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025/ ...Upper Ohio Valley... Very cold mid-level temperatures (around -30 C at 500 mb) will overspread OH and vicinity this afternoon, as the primary upper trough pivots eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. The airmass across this region is behind the main cold front, and low-level moisture will admittedly remain quite limited (surface dewpoints generally in the 30s to low 40s). Even so, the combination of modest daytime heating, coupled with cooling temperatures aloft and steepening low/mid-level lapse rates, should allow for weak MLCAPE to develop across parts of the Upper OH Valley through late this afternoon. Low/mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong through much of the day, but some increase in westerly boundary-layer flow is anticipated this afternoon. Current expectations are for at least isolated thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and early evening as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads this region, and as a weak secondary surface trough/wind shift moves southeastward. Given the steepened lapse rate environment, some of this convection may be capable of producing occasional strong to damaging winds and small hail. Accordingly, a Marginal Risk has been added across parts of OH, northeast KY, and WV, where the greatest concentration of thunderstorms with some wind threat is anticipated. ...Georgia into the Carolinas... Modest instability should develop later today across parts of central GA into the Carolinas ahead of a cold front amid increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal heating. This should support a chance for isolated thunderstorms to develop across these areas as the cold front continues east-southeastward. While small hail and gusty winds may occur with the more robust thunderstorms, the mainly anafrontal and elevated convective structure will likely limit the overall severe potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Mid/Upper Ohio Valley, and Carolinas into central Georgia. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur this afternoon and early evening across portions of the Upper Ohio Valley vicinity. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and very minimal changes were made with this update. Isolated to widely scattered low-topped thunderstorms are developing within a weak low-level convergence zone across southwestern Ohio and southeastern Indiana this afternoon, with additional development northward along the surface trough in northern Indiana. This activity will continue tracking/developing east-southeastward into this evening, and any small clusters that evolve will be capable of producing strong to locally damaging wind gusts and small hail. For additional information, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 02/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025/ ...Upper Ohio Valley... Very cold mid-level temperatures (around -30 C at 500 mb) will overspread OH and vicinity this afternoon, as the primary upper trough pivots eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. The airmass across this region is behind the main cold front, and low-level moisture will admittedly remain quite limited (surface dewpoints generally in the 30s to low 40s). Even so, the combination of modest daytime heating, coupled with cooling temperatures aloft and steepening low/mid-level lapse rates, should allow for weak MLCAPE to develop across parts of the Upper OH Valley through late this afternoon. Low/mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong through much of the day, but some increase in westerly boundary-layer flow is anticipated this afternoon. Current expectations are for at least isolated thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and early evening as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads this region, and as a weak secondary surface trough/wind shift moves southeastward. Given the steepened lapse rate environment, some of this convection may be capable of producing occasional strong to damaging winds and small hail. Accordingly, a Marginal Risk has been added across parts of OH, northeast KY, and WV, where the greatest concentration of thunderstorms with some wind threat is anticipated. ...Georgia into the Carolinas... Modest instability should develop later today across parts of central GA into the Carolinas ahead of a cold front amid increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal heating. This should support a chance for isolated thunderstorms to develop across these areas as the cold front continues east-southeastward. While small hail and gusty winds may occur with the more robust thunderstorms, the mainly anafrontal and elevated convective structure will likely limit the overall severe potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Mid/Upper Ohio Valley, and Carolinas into central Georgia. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur this afternoon and early evening across portions of the Upper Ohio Valley vicinity. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and very minimal changes were made with this update. Isolated to widely scattered low-topped thunderstorms are developing within a weak low-level convergence zone across southwestern Ohio and southeastern Indiana this afternoon, with additional development northward along the surface trough in northern Indiana. This activity will continue tracking/developing east-southeastward into this evening, and any small clusters that evolve will be capable of producing strong to locally damaging wind gusts and small hail. For additional information, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 02/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025/ ...Upper Ohio Valley... Very cold mid-level temperatures (around -30 C at 500 mb) will overspread OH and vicinity this afternoon, as the primary upper trough pivots eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. The airmass across this region is behind the main cold front, and low-level moisture will admittedly remain quite limited (surface dewpoints generally in the 30s to low 40s). Even so, the combination of modest daytime heating, coupled with cooling temperatures aloft and steepening low/mid-level lapse rates, should allow for weak MLCAPE to develop across parts of the Upper OH Valley through late this afternoon. Low/mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong through much of the day, but some increase in westerly boundary-layer flow is anticipated this afternoon. Current expectations are for at least isolated thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and early evening as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads this region, and as a weak secondary surface trough/wind shift moves southeastward. Given the steepened lapse rate environment, some of this convection may be capable of producing occasional strong to damaging winds and small hail. Accordingly, a Marginal Risk has been added across parts of OH, northeast KY, and WV, where the greatest concentration of thunderstorms with some wind threat is anticipated. ...Georgia into the Carolinas... Modest instability should develop later today across parts of central GA into the Carolinas ahead of a cold front amid increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal heating. This should support a chance for isolated thunderstorms to develop across these areas as the cold front continues east-southeastward. While small hail and gusty winds may occur with the more robust thunderstorms, the mainly anafrontal and elevated convective structure will likely limit the overall severe potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Mid/Upper Ohio Valley, and Carolinas into central Georgia. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur this afternoon and early evening across portions of the Upper Ohio Valley vicinity. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and very minimal changes were made with this update. Isolated to widely scattered low-topped thunderstorms are developing within a weak low-level convergence zone across southwestern Ohio and southeastern Indiana this afternoon, with additional development northward along the surface trough in northern Indiana. This activity will continue tracking/developing east-southeastward into this evening, and any small clusters that evolve will be capable of producing strong to locally damaging wind gusts and small hail. For additional information, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 02/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025/ ...Upper Ohio Valley... Very cold mid-level temperatures (around -30 C at 500 mb) will overspread OH and vicinity this afternoon, as the primary upper trough pivots eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. The airmass across this region is behind the main cold front, and low-level moisture will admittedly remain quite limited (surface dewpoints generally in the 30s to low 40s). Even so, the combination of modest daytime heating, coupled with cooling temperatures aloft and steepening low/mid-level lapse rates, should allow for weak MLCAPE to develop across parts of the Upper OH Valley through late this afternoon. Low/mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong through much of the day, but some increase in westerly boundary-layer flow is anticipated this afternoon. Current expectations are for at least isolated thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and early evening as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads this region, and as a weak secondary surface trough/wind shift moves southeastward. Given the steepened lapse rate environment, some of this convection may be capable of producing occasional strong to damaging winds and small hail. Accordingly, a Marginal Risk has been added across parts of OH, northeast KY, and WV, where the greatest concentration of thunderstorms with some wind threat is anticipated. ...Georgia into the Carolinas... Modest instability should develop later today across parts of central GA into the Carolinas ahead of a cold front amid increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal heating. This should support a chance for isolated thunderstorms to develop across these areas as the cold front continues east-southeastward. While small hail and gusty winds may occur with the more robust thunderstorms, the mainly anafrontal and elevated convective structure will likely limit the overall severe potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Mid/Upper Ohio Valley, and Carolinas into central Georgia. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur this afternoon and early evening across portions of the Upper Ohio Valley vicinity. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and very minimal changes were made with this update. Isolated to widely scattered low-topped thunderstorms are developing within a weak low-level convergence zone across southwestern Ohio and southeastern Indiana this afternoon, with additional development northward along the surface trough in northern Indiana. This activity will continue tracking/developing east-southeastward into this evening, and any small clusters that evolve will be capable of producing strong to locally damaging wind gusts and small hail. For additional information, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 02/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025/ ...Upper Ohio Valley... Very cold mid-level temperatures (around -30 C at 500 mb) will overspread OH and vicinity this afternoon, as the primary upper trough pivots eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. The airmass across this region is behind the main cold front, and low-level moisture will admittedly remain quite limited (surface dewpoints generally in the 30s to low 40s). Even so, the combination of modest daytime heating, coupled with cooling temperatures aloft and steepening low/mid-level lapse rates, should allow for weak MLCAPE to develop across parts of the Upper OH Valley through late this afternoon. Low/mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong through much of the day, but some increase in westerly boundary-layer flow is anticipated this afternoon. Current expectations are for at least isolated thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and early evening as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads this region, and as a weak secondary surface trough/wind shift moves southeastward. Given the steepened lapse rate environment, some of this convection may be capable of producing occasional strong to damaging winds and small hail. Accordingly, a Marginal Risk has been added across parts of OH, northeast KY, and WV, where the greatest concentration of thunderstorms with some wind threat is anticipated. ...Georgia into the Carolinas... Modest instability should develop later today across parts of central GA into the Carolinas ahead of a cold front amid increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal heating. This should support a chance for isolated thunderstorms to develop across these areas as the cold front continues east-southeastward. While small hail and gusty winds may occur with the more robust thunderstorms, the mainly anafrontal and elevated convective structure will likely limit the overall severe potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Mid/Upper Ohio Valley, and Carolinas into central Georgia. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur this afternoon and early evening across portions of the Upper Ohio Valley vicinity. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and very minimal changes were made with this update. Isolated to widely scattered low-topped thunderstorms are developing within a weak low-level convergence zone across southwestern Ohio and southeastern Indiana this afternoon, with additional development northward along the surface trough in northern Indiana. This activity will continue tracking/developing east-southeastward into this evening, and any small clusters that evolve will be capable of producing strong to locally damaging wind gusts and small hail. For additional information, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 02/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025/ ...Upper Ohio Valley... Very cold mid-level temperatures (around -30 C at 500 mb) will overspread OH and vicinity this afternoon, as the primary upper trough pivots eastward over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. The airmass across this region is behind the main cold front, and low-level moisture will admittedly remain quite limited (surface dewpoints generally in the 30s to low 40s). Even so, the combination of modest daytime heating, coupled with cooling temperatures aloft and steepening low/mid-level lapse rates, should allow for weak MLCAPE to develop across parts of the Upper OH Valley through late this afternoon. Low/mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong through much of the day, but some increase in westerly boundary-layer flow is anticipated this afternoon. Current expectations are for at least isolated thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and early evening as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads this region, and as a weak secondary surface trough/wind shift moves southeastward. Given the steepened lapse rate environment, some of this convection may be capable of producing occasional strong to damaging winds and small hail. Accordingly, a Marginal Risk has been added across parts of OH, northeast KY, and WV, where the greatest concentration of thunderstorms with some wind threat is anticipated. ...Georgia into the Carolinas... Modest instability should develop later today across parts of central GA into the Carolinas ahead of a cold front amid increasing mid-level moisture and diurnal heating. This should support a chance for isolated thunderstorms to develop across these areas as the cold front continues east-southeastward. While small hail and gusty winds may occur with the more robust thunderstorms, the mainly anafrontal and elevated convective structure will likely limit the overall severe potential. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little thunderstorm activity is anticipated for Saturday. A flash or two cannot be ruled out over northern Arizona and vicinity. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper low will move east from southern CA into AZ during the day, beneath a large-scale ridge over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Strong cooling aloft combined with daytime heating may yield weak instability supporting isolated, weak diurnal convection from southern NV across northern AZ and toward the Four Corners area. Elsewhere, a large-scale upper trough will remain over the East, with cool/stable air due to high pressure and offshore flow from the Gulf to the East Coast. An amplified upper trough will approach the West Coast Saturday night, with little instability forecast. ..Jewell.. 02/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little thunderstorm activity is anticipated for Saturday. A flash or two cannot be ruled out over northern Arizona and vicinity. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper low will move east from southern CA into AZ during the day, beneath a large-scale ridge over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Strong cooling aloft combined with daytime heating may yield weak instability supporting isolated, weak diurnal convection from southern NV across northern AZ and toward the Four Corners area. Elsewhere, a large-scale upper trough will remain over the East, with cool/stable air due to high pressure and offshore flow from the Gulf to the East Coast. An amplified upper trough will approach the West Coast Saturday night, with little instability forecast. ..Jewell.. 02/27/2025 Read more