Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D6/Tue - East Texas into the Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley... A compact mid-level low will translate east across the Southwest on Sunday which will result in lee cyclogenesis in the southern/central High Plains. As surface high pressure across the Midwest translates east, favorable low-level trajectories and strengthening flow across the Gulf and southern Plains will initiate significant moisture return across Texas. The initial mid-level low will weaken as it moves across the Plains and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley on D5/Monday. However, lee cyclogenesis will likely strengthen Monday afternoon as a larger scale trough approaches the southern Plains. Shortwave ridging will likely keep the dryline capped on Monday with continued moistening beneath the capping inversion as low-level moisture advection continues. By 12Z Tuesday, moisture recovery across the western Gulf should be complete with 70F dewpoints forecast near the Gulf Coast by both GFS and ECMWF ensembles. Confidence in the upper-level pattern is increasing as the ECMWF and EC Ensembles have been consistent with an amplified mid-level pattern across the central and southern Plains now for several consecutive runs. In addition, the GFS/GEFS has trended toward the more amplified ECMWF solution. As the confidence in the overall pattern increases, the confidence for a significant severe weather threat has also increased and 30% severe weather probabilities have been added from East Texas to central Mississippi. While specifics will remain uncertain until the event draws closer, the potential for multiple rounds of severe convection including supercells, clusters, and likely an eventual squall line will likely bring a threat for all severe weather hazards including strong tornadoes. ...D7/Wed - Carolinas into the Southeast... The ECMWF/ECS, which has been several days ahead of other extended guidance on with this upcoming pattern, has trended toward greater moisture penetration into the Southeast US and east of the Appalachians. Low to mid 60s dewpoints in the presence of a very strong wind field will support a large area of severe weather threat from the Southeast to the Carolinas and perhaps into parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Storm mode and specific hazards will be impacted by prior day convection and the overall evolution of the deepening surface low and associated cold front, but a great enough threat exists for 15% severe weather probabilities for D7/Wednesday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D6/Tue - East Texas into the Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley... A compact mid-level low will translate east across the Southwest on Sunday which will result in lee cyclogenesis in the southern/central High Plains. As surface high pressure across the Midwest translates east, favorable low-level trajectories and strengthening flow across the Gulf and southern Plains will initiate significant moisture return across Texas. The initial mid-level low will weaken as it moves across the Plains and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley on D5/Monday. However, lee cyclogenesis will likely strengthen Monday afternoon as a larger scale trough approaches the southern Plains. Shortwave ridging will likely keep the dryline capped on Monday with continued moistening beneath the capping inversion as low-level moisture advection continues. By 12Z Tuesday, moisture recovery across the western Gulf should be complete with 70F dewpoints forecast near the Gulf Coast by both GFS and ECMWF ensembles. Confidence in the upper-level pattern is increasing as the ECMWF and EC Ensembles have been consistent with an amplified mid-level pattern across the central and southern Plains now for several consecutive runs. In addition, the GFS/GEFS has trended toward the more amplified ECMWF solution. As the confidence in the overall pattern increases, the confidence for a significant severe weather threat has also increased and 30% severe weather probabilities have been added from East Texas to central Mississippi. While specifics will remain uncertain until the event draws closer, the potential for multiple rounds of severe convection including supercells, clusters, and likely an eventual squall line will likely bring a threat for all severe weather hazards including strong tornadoes. ...D7/Wed - Carolinas into the Southeast... The ECMWF/ECS, which has been several days ahead of other extended guidance on with this upcoming pattern, has trended toward greater moisture penetration into the Southeast US and east of the Appalachians. Low to mid 60s dewpoints in the presence of a very strong wind field will support a large area of severe weather threat from the Southeast to the Carolinas and perhaps into parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Storm mode and specific hazards will be impacted by prior day convection and the overall evolution of the deepening surface low and associated cold front, but a great enough threat exists for 15% severe weather probabilities for D7/Wednesday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D6/Tue - East Texas into the Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley... A compact mid-level low will translate east across the Southwest on Sunday which will result in lee cyclogenesis in the southern/central High Plains. As surface high pressure across the Midwest translates east, favorable low-level trajectories and strengthening flow across the Gulf and southern Plains will initiate significant moisture return across Texas. The initial mid-level low will weaken as it moves across the Plains and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley on D5/Monday. However, lee cyclogenesis will likely strengthen Monday afternoon as a larger scale trough approaches the southern Plains. Shortwave ridging will likely keep the dryline capped on Monday with continued moistening beneath the capping inversion as low-level moisture advection continues. By 12Z Tuesday, moisture recovery across the western Gulf should be complete with 70F dewpoints forecast near the Gulf Coast by both GFS and ECMWF ensembles. Confidence in the upper-level pattern is increasing as the ECMWF and EC Ensembles have been consistent with an amplified mid-level pattern across the central and southern Plains now for several consecutive runs. In addition, the GFS/GEFS has trended toward the more amplified ECMWF solution. As the confidence in the overall pattern increases, the confidence for a significant severe weather threat has also increased and 30% severe weather probabilities have been added from East Texas to central Mississippi. While specifics will remain uncertain until the event draws closer, the potential for multiple rounds of severe convection including supercells, clusters, and likely an eventual squall line will likely bring a threat for all severe weather hazards including strong tornadoes. ...D7/Wed - Carolinas into the Southeast... The ECMWF/ECS, which has been several days ahead of other extended guidance on with this upcoming pattern, has trended toward greater moisture penetration into the Southeast US and east of the Appalachians. Low to mid 60s dewpoints in the presence of a very strong wind field will support a large area of severe weather threat from the Southeast to the Carolinas and perhaps into parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Storm mode and specific hazards will be impacted by prior day convection and the overall evolution of the deepening surface low and associated cold front, but a great enough threat exists for 15% severe weather probabilities for D7/Wednesday. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D6/Tue - East Texas into the Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley... A compact mid-level low will translate east across the Southwest on Sunday which will result in lee cyclogenesis in the southern/central High Plains. As surface high pressure across the Midwest translates east, favorable low-level trajectories and strengthening flow across the Gulf and southern Plains will initiate significant moisture return across Texas. The initial mid-level low will weaken as it moves across the Plains and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley on D5/Monday. However, lee cyclogenesis will likely strengthen Monday afternoon as a larger scale trough approaches the southern Plains. Shortwave ridging will likely keep the dryline capped on Monday with continued moistening beneath the capping inversion as low-level moisture advection continues. By 12Z Tuesday, moisture recovery across the western Gulf should be complete with 70F dewpoints forecast near the Gulf Coast by both GFS and ECMWF ensembles. Confidence in the upper-level pattern is increasing as the ECMWF and EC Ensembles have been consistent with an amplified mid-level pattern across the central and southern Plains now for several consecutive runs. In addition, the GFS/GEFS has trended toward the more amplified ECMWF solution. As the confidence in the overall pattern increases, the confidence for a significant severe weather threat has also increased and 30% severe weather probabilities have been added from East Texas to central Mississippi. While specifics will remain uncertain until the event draws closer, the potential for multiple rounds of severe convection including supercells, clusters, and likely an eventual squall line will likely bring a threat for all severe weather hazards including strong tornadoes. ...D7/Wed - Carolinas into the Southeast... The ECMWF/ECS, which has been several days ahead of other extended guidance on with this upcoming pattern, has trended toward greater moisture penetration into the Southeast US and east of the Appalachians. Low to mid 60s dewpoints in the presence of a very strong wind field will support a large area of severe weather threat from the Southeast to the Carolinas and perhaps into parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Storm mode and specific hazards will be impacted by prior day convection and the overall evolution of the deepening surface low and associated cold front, but a great enough threat exists for 15% severe weather probabilities for D7/Wednesday. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the northern California and southern Oregon Coast on Saturday night. ...Discussion... On Saturday, the large scale pattern will feature a trough across the eastern CONUS with ridging across the western CONUS and another larger scale trough approaching the West Coast. Beneath this ridge, an upper low will translate east across the Southwest. A dry airmass will limit thunderstorm potential across most of the eastern CONUS on Saturday. A few lightning flashes may be possible late along the northern California/southern Oregon coast Saturday night as temperatures cool aloft and mid-level lapse rates steepen, yielding weak instability after 06Z. ..Bentley.. 02/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the northern California and southern Oregon Coast on Saturday night. ...Discussion... On Saturday, the large scale pattern will feature a trough across the eastern CONUS with ridging across the western CONUS and another larger scale trough approaching the West Coast. Beneath this ridge, an upper low will translate east across the Southwest. A dry airmass will limit thunderstorm potential across most of the eastern CONUS on Saturday. A few lightning flashes may be possible late along the northern California/southern Oregon coast Saturday night as temperatures cool aloft and mid-level lapse rates steepen, yielding weak instability after 06Z. ..Bentley.. 02/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the northern California and southern Oregon Coast on Saturday night. ...Discussion... On Saturday, the large scale pattern will feature a trough across the eastern CONUS with ridging across the western CONUS and another larger scale trough approaching the West Coast. Beneath this ridge, an upper low will translate east across the Southwest. A dry airmass will limit thunderstorm potential across most of the eastern CONUS on Saturday. A few lightning flashes may be possible late along the northern California/southern Oregon coast Saturday night as temperatures cool aloft and mid-level lapse rates steepen, yielding weak instability after 06Z. ..Bentley.. 02/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the northern California and southern Oregon Coast on Saturday night. ...Discussion... On Saturday, the large scale pattern will feature a trough across the eastern CONUS with ridging across the western CONUS and another larger scale trough approaching the West Coast. Beneath this ridge, an upper low will translate east across the Southwest. A dry airmass will limit thunderstorm potential across most of the eastern CONUS on Saturday. A few lightning flashes may be possible late along the northern California/southern Oregon coast Saturday night as temperatures cool aloft and mid-level lapse rates steepen, yielding weak instability after 06Z. ..Bentley.. 02/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the northern California and southern Oregon Coast on Saturday night. ...Discussion... On Saturday, the large scale pattern will feature a trough across the eastern CONUS with ridging across the western CONUS and another larger scale trough approaching the West Coast. Beneath this ridge, an upper low will translate east across the Southwest. A dry airmass will limit thunderstorm potential across most of the eastern CONUS on Saturday. A few lightning flashes may be possible late along the northern California/southern Oregon coast Saturday night as temperatures cool aloft and mid-level lapse rates steepen, yielding weak instability after 06Z. ..Bentley.. 02/27/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western US is expected to weaken as a shortwave trough approaches from southern Canada. The upper trough is forecast to intensify as it moves southeastward over the Plains and Midwest. An associated surface low will also quickly deepen over the Great Lakes. A dry cold front will move south through the central Plains with strong gusts to 25-30 mph along and behind the front. Dry conditions are also expected with afternoon RH values between 20 and 30% ahead of the cooler air mass. Ongoing drought and dry fine fuels are supportive of fire spread. However, larger fuels are less receptive currently. As such, some risk for wind-driven fire weather conditions is probable for a few hours D2/Friday afternoon across central/eastern SD/NE into far western portions of MN and IA. ..Lyons.. 02/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western US is expected to weaken as a shortwave trough approaches from southern Canada. The upper trough is forecast to intensify as it moves southeastward over the Plains and Midwest. An associated surface low will also quickly deepen over the Great Lakes. A dry cold front will move south through the central Plains with strong gusts to 25-30 mph along and behind the front. Dry conditions are also expected with afternoon RH values between 20 and 30% ahead of the cooler air mass. Ongoing drought and dry fine fuels are supportive of fire spread. However, larger fuels are less receptive currently. As such, some risk for wind-driven fire weather conditions is probable for a few hours D2/Friday afternoon across central/eastern SD/NE into far western portions of MN and IA. ..Lyons.. 02/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western US is expected to weaken as a shortwave trough approaches from southern Canada. The upper trough is forecast to intensify as it moves southeastward over the Plains and Midwest. An associated surface low will also quickly deepen over the Great Lakes. A dry cold front will move south through the central Plains with strong gusts to 25-30 mph along and behind the front. Dry conditions are also expected with afternoon RH values between 20 and 30% ahead of the cooler air mass. Ongoing drought and dry fine fuels are supportive of fire spread. However, larger fuels are less receptive currently. As such, some risk for wind-driven fire weather conditions is probable for a few hours D2/Friday afternoon across central/eastern SD/NE into far western portions of MN and IA. ..Lyons.. 02/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western US is expected to weaken as a shortwave trough approaches from southern Canada. The upper trough is forecast to intensify as it moves southeastward over the Plains and Midwest. An associated surface low will also quickly deepen over the Great Lakes. A dry cold front will move south through the central Plains with strong gusts to 25-30 mph along and behind the front. Dry conditions are also expected with afternoon RH values between 20 and 30% ahead of the cooler air mass. Ongoing drought and dry fine fuels are supportive of fire spread. However, larger fuels are less receptive currently. As such, some risk for wind-driven fire weather conditions is probable for a few hours D2/Friday afternoon across central/eastern SD/NE into far western portions of MN and IA. ..Lyons.. 02/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western US is expected to weaken as a shortwave trough approaches from southern Canada. The upper trough is forecast to intensify as it moves southeastward over the Plains and Midwest. An associated surface low will also quickly deepen over the Great Lakes. A dry cold front will move south through the central Plains with strong gusts to 25-30 mph along and behind the front. Dry conditions are also expected with afternoon RH values between 20 and 30% ahead of the cooler air mass. Ongoing drought and dry fine fuels are supportive of fire spread. However, larger fuels are less receptive currently. As such, some risk for wind-driven fire weather conditions is probable for a few hours D2/Friday afternoon across central/eastern SD/NE into far western portions of MN and IA. ..Lyons.. 02/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow with a strong northern stream shortwave trough is forecast to amplify as it moves over the eastern US. At the same time, ridging will intensify to the west as an upper low weakens over the Southwest. At the surface, a cold front will quickly move eastward with gusty winds and drier air behind it. Dry and breezy conditions are possible in the lee of the Appalachians and across parts of the Southeast, supporting some localized fire-weather concerns. ...Southeast US... As the eastern end of the cold front moves through the eastern US, dry continental flow is likely in the lee of the southern Appalachians and the Southeastern US. Gusty west/northwest winds of 10-15 mph are possible along with afternoon minimum humidity near 35%. After several weeks of unusually dry conditions, area fuels are supportive of some localized fire-weather risk. However, increasing moisture ahead of the cold front will likely keep RH values high enough to limit more widespread fire-weather concerns. ...Desert Southwest... A backdoor cold front will continue to weaken as it moves westward over the Southwest and southern High Plains. A surface low over western AZ will support moderate easterly flow across parts of western NM and AZ. While the air mass will be cooler in the wake of the front, relatively mild temperatures may still support a few hours of RH below 25%. Overlapping with easterly gusts of 15-20 mph and dry fuels, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across eastern AZ and western NM. ..Lyons.. 02/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow with a strong northern stream shortwave trough is forecast to amplify as it moves over the eastern US. At the same time, ridging will intensify to the west as an upper low weakens over the Southwest. At the surface, a cold front will quickly move eastward with gusty winds and drier air behind it. Dry and breezy conditions are possible in the lee of the Appalachians and across parts of the Southeast, supporting some localized fire-weather concerns. ...Southeast US... As the eastern end of the cold front moves through the eastern US, dry continental flow is likely in the lee of the southern Appalachians and the Southeastern US. Gusty west/northwest winds of 10-15 mph are possible along with afternoon minimum humidity near 35%. After several weeks of unusually dry conditions, area fuels are supportive of some localized fire-weather risk. However, increasing moisture ahead of the cold front will likely keep RH values high enough to limit more widespread fire-weather concerns. ...Desert Southwest... A backdoor cold front will continue to weaken as it moves westward over the Southwest and southern High Plains. A surface low over western AZ will support moderate easterly flow across parts of western NM and AZ. While the air mass will be cooler in the wake of the front, relatively mild temperatures may still support a few hours of RH below 25%. Overlapping with easterly gusts of 15-20 mph and dry fuels, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across eastern AZ and western NM. ..Lyons.. 02/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow with a strong northern stream shortwave trough is forecast to amplify as it moves over the eastern US. At the same time, ridging will intensify to the west as an upper low weakens over the Southwest. At the surface, a cold front will quickly move eastward with gusty winds and drier air behind it. Dry and breezy conditions are possible in the lee of the Appalachians and across parts of the Southeast, supporting some localized fire-weather concerns. ...Southeast US... As the eastern end of the cold front moves through the eastern US, dry continental flow is likely in the lee of the southern Appalachians and the Southeastern US. Gusty west/northwest winds of 10-15 mph are possible along with afternoon minimum humidity near 35%. After several weeks of unusually dry conditions, area fuels are supportive of some localized fire-weather risk. However, increasing moisture ahead of the cold front will likely keep RH values high enough to limit more widespread fire-weather concerns. ...Desert Southwest... A backdoor cold front will continue to weaken as it moves westward over the Southwest and southern High Plains. A surface low over western AZ will support moderate easterly flow across parts of western NM and AZ. While the air mass will be cooler in the wake of the front, relatively mild temperatures may still support a few hours of RH below 25%. Overlapping with easterly gusts of 15-20 mph and dry fuels, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across eastern AZ and western NM. ..Lyons.. 02/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow with a strong northern stream shortwave trough is forecast to amplify as it moves over the eastern US. At the same time, ridging will intensify to the west as an upper low weakens over the Southwest. At the surface, a cold front will quickly move eastward with gusty winds and drier air behind it. Dry and breezy conditions are possible in the lee of the Appalachians and across parts of the Southeast, supporting some localized fire-weather concerns. ...Southeast US... As the eastern end of the cold front moves through the eastern US, dry continental flow is likely in the lee of the southern Appalachians and the Southeastern US. Gusty west/northwest winds of 10-15 mph are possible along with afternoon minimum humidity near 35%. After several weeks of unusually dry conditions, area fuels are supportive of some localized fire-weather risk. However, increasing moisture ahead of the cold front will likely keep RH values high enough to limit more widespread fire-weather concerns. ...Desert Southwest... A backdoor cold front will continue to weaken as it moves westward over the Southwest and southern High Plains. A surface low over western AZ will support moderate easterly flow across parts of western NM and AZ. While the air mass will be cooler in the wake of the front, relatively mild temperatures may still support a few hours of RH below 25%. Overlapping with easterly gusts of 15-20 mph and dry fuels, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across eastern AZ and western NM. ..Lyons.. 02/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow with a strong northern stream shortwave trough is forecast to amplify as it moves over the eastern US. At the same time, ridging will intensify to the west as an upper low weakens over the Southwest. At the surface, a cold front will quickly move eastward with gusty winds and drier air behind it. Dry and breezy conditions are possible in the lee of the Appalachians and across parts of the Southeast, supporting some localized fire-weather concerns. ...Southeast US... As the eastern end of the cold front moves through the eastern US, dry continental flow is likely in the lee of the southern Appalachians and the Southeastern US. Gusty west/northwest winds of 10-15 mph are possible along with afternoon minimum humidity near 35%. After several weeks of unusually dry conditions, area fuels are supportive of some localized fire-weather risk. However, increasing moisture ahead of the cold front will likely keep RH values high enough to limit more widespread fire-weather concerns. ...Desert Southwest... A backdoor cold front will continue to weaken as it moves westward over the Southwest and southern High Plains. A surface low over western AZ will support moderate easterly flow across parts of western NM and AZ. While the air mass will be cooler in the wake of the front, relatively mild temperatures may still support a few hours of RH below 25%. Overlapping with easterly gusts of 15-20 mph and dry fuels, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across eastern AZ and western NM. ..Lyons.. 02/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of central and southern California on Friday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move off the East Coast on Friday with a secondary reinforcing trough digging into the Great Lakes in its wake. An upper low beneath a ridge across the western CONUS will drift slowly east and eventually overspread parts of central and southern California Friday night. ...Portions of central and southern California... Isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorms are forecast, mostly Friday evening and Friday night, as temperatures cool aloft as an upper low moves inland across central and southern California. While instability may be sufficient for a few thunderstorms, it should remain too weak for any appreciable severe weather threat. ..Bentley.. 02/27/2025 Read more