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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... In the wake of renewed cyclogenesis across and north of the Canadian Maritimes, it appears that a broad area of lower mid-level heights will linger across the Great Lakes and Northeast late this week through the coming weekend. This may contribute to the maintenance of a confluent mid-level regime to the east of the Rockies, as much of the western and southern U.S. remains under the influence of one prominent belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific. One embedded short wave trough digging into the Southwest with an evolving mid-level low by early Friday is forecast to progress across the southern Rockies by 12Z Saturday. Subsequent development across and east of the southern Great Plains over the weekend into early next week remains much more unclear. ECENS/ECMWF-based guidance suggests that this feature emerges as an increasingly sheared perturbation across the southern tier, supportive of only low amplitude frontal wave development, until progressing across and east of the south Atlantic Seaboard. GEFS/GFS-based guidance forecasts similar shearing across the southern Great Plains, before phasing with an amplifying wave within the cyclonic regime initially confined to the Great Lakes vicinity. This would probably be accompanied by more substantive cyclogenesis, with a moistening and destabilizing warm sector which could become supportive of organized severe weather potential. Thereafter, through the early to middle portion of next week, models indicate that, as the persistent area of lower mid-level heights retreats to the north and east, mid/upper flow may become more supportive of strong cyclogenesis across Nebraska into the mid/lower Missouri Valley by late next Tuesday night. However, it appears that this will occur before the boundary-layer over the northwestern Gulf recovers sufficiently to support a substantive moist return flow. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... In the wake of renewed cyclogenesis across and north of the Canadian Maritimes, it appears that a broad area of lower mid-level heights will linger across the Great Lakes and Northeast late this week through the coming weekend. This may contribute to the maintenance of a confluent mid-level regime to the east of the Rockies, as much of the western and southern U.S. remains under the influence of one prominent belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific. One embedded short wave trough digging into the Southwest with an evolving mid-level low by early Friday is forecast to progress across the southern Rockies by 12Z Saturday. Subsequent development across and east of the southern Great Plains over the weekend into early next week remains much more unclear. ECENS/ECMWF-based guidance suggests that this feature emerges as an increasingly sheared perturbation across the southern tier, supportive of only low amplitude frontal wave development, until progressing across and east of the south Atlantic Seaboard. GEFS/GFS-based guidance forecasts similar shearing across the southern Great Plains, before phasing with an amplifying wave within the cyclonic regime initially confined to the Great Lakes vicinity. This would probably be accompanied by more substantive cyclogenesis, with a moistening and destabilizing warm sector which could become supportive of organized severe weather potential. Thereafter, through the early to middle portion of next week, models indicate that, as the persistent area of lower mid-level heights retreats to the north and east, mid/upper flow may become more supportive of strong cyclogenesis across Nebraska into the mid/lower Missouri Valley by late next Tuesday night. However, it appears that this will occur before the boundary-layer over the northwestern Gulf recovers sufficiently to support a substantive moist return flow. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... In the wake of renewed cyclogenesis across and north of the Canadian Maritimes, it appears that a broad area of lower mid-level heights will linger across the Great Lakes and Northeast late this week through the coming weekend. This may contribute to the maintenance of a confluent mid-level regime to the east of the Rockies, as much of the western and southern U.S. remains under the influence of one prominent belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific. One embedded short wave trough digging into the Southwest with an evolving mid-level low by early Friday is forecast to progress across the southern Rockies by 12Z Saturday. Subsequent development across and east of the southern Great Plains over the weekend into early next week remains much more unclear. ECENS/ECMWF-based guidance suggests that this feature emerges as an increasingly sheared perturbation across the southern tier, supportive of only low amplitude frontal wave development, until progressing across and east of the south Atlantic Seaboard. GEFS/GFS-based guidance forecasts similar shearing across the southern Great Plains, before phasing with an amplifying wave within the cyclonic regime initially confined to the Great Lakes vicinity. This would probably be accompanied by more substantive cyclogenesis, with a moistening and destabilizing warm sector which could become supportive of organized severe weather potential. Thereafter, through the early to middle portion of next week, models indicate that, as the persistent area of lower mid-level heights retreats to the north and east, mid/upper flow may become more supportive of strong cyclogenesis across Nebraska into the mid/lower Missouri Valley by late next Tuesday night. However, it appears that this will occur before the boundary-layer over the northwestern Gulf recovers sufficiently to support a substantive moist return flow. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... In the wake of renewed cyclogenesis across and north of the Canadian Maritimes, it appears that a broad area of lower mid-level heights will linger across the Great Lakes and Northeast late this week through the coming weekend. This may contribute to the maintenance of a confluent mid-level regime to the east of the Rockies, as much of the western and southern U.S. remains under the influence of one prominent belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific. One embedded short wave trough digging into the Southwest with an evolving mid-level low by early Friday is forecast to progress across the southern Rockies by 12Z Saturday. Subsequent development across and east of the southern Great Plains over the weekend into early next week remains much more unclear. ECENS/ECMWF-based guidance suggests that this feature emerges as an increasingly sheared perturbation across the southern tier, supportive of only low amplitude frontal wave development, until progressing across and east of the south Atlantic Seaboard. GEFS/GFS-based guidance forecasts similar shearing across the southern Great Plains, before phasing with an amplifying wave within the cyclonic regime initially confined to the Great Lakes vicinity. This would probably be accompanied by more substantive cyclogenesis, with a moistening and destabilizing warm sector which could become supportive of organized severe weather potential. Thereafter, through the early to middle portion of next week, models indicate that, as the persistent area of lower mid-level heights retreats to the north and east, mid/upper flow may become more supportive of strong cyclogenesis across Nebraska into the mid/lower Missouri Valley by late next Tuesday night. However, it appears that this will occur before the boundary-layer over the northwestern Gulf recovers sufficiently to support a substantive moist return flow. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... In the wake of renewed cyclogenesis across and north of the Canadian Maritimes, it appears that a broad area of lower mid-level heights will linger across the Great Lakes and Northeast late this week through the coming weekend. This may contribute to the maintenance of a confluent mid-level regime to the east of the Rockies, as much of the western and southern U.S. remains under the influence of one prominent belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific. One embedded short wave trough digging into the Southwest with an evolving mid-level low by early Friday is forecast to progress across the southern Rockies by 12Z Saturday. Subsequent development across and east of the southern Great Plains over the weekend into early next week remains much more unclear. ECENS/ECMWF-based guidance suggests that this feature emerges as an increasingly sheared perturbation across the southern tier, supportive of only low amplitude frontal wave development, until progressing across and east of the south Atlantic Seaboard. GEFS/GFS-based guidance forecasts similar shearing across the southern Great Plains, before phasing with an amplifying wave within the cyclonic regime initially confined to the Great Lakes vicinity. This would probably be accompanied by more substantive cyclogenesis, with a moistening and destabilizing warm sector which could become supportive of organized severe weather potential. Thereafter, through the early to middle portion of next week, models indicate that, as the persistent area of lower mid-level heights retreats to the north and east, mid/upper flow may become more supportive of strong cyclogenesis across Nebraska into the mid/lower Missouri Valley by late next Tuesday night. However, it appears that this will occur before the boundary-layer over the northwestern Gulf recovers sufficiently to support a substantive moist return flow. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... In the wake of renewed cyclogenesis across and north of the Canadian Maritimes, it appears that a broad area of lower mid-level heights will linger across the Great Lakes and Northeast late this week through the coming weekend. This may contribute to the maintenance of a confluent mid-level regime to the east of the Rockies, as much of the western and southern U.S. remains under the influence of one prominent belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific. One embedded short wave trough digging into the Southwest with an evolving mid-level low by early Friday is forecast to progress across the southern Rockies by 12Z Saturday. Subsequent development across and east of the southern Great Plains over the weekend into early next week remains much more unclear. ECENS/ECMWF-based guidance suggests that this feature emerges as an increasingly sheared perturbation across the southern tier, supportive of only low amplitude frontal wave development, until progressing across and east of the south Atlantic Seaboard. GEFS/GFS-based guidance forecasts similar shearing across the southern Great Plains, before phasing with an amplifying wave within the cyclonic regime initially confined to the Great Lakes vicinity. This would probably be accompanied by more substantive cyclogenesis, with a moistening and destabilizing warm sector which could become supportive of organized severe weather potential. Thereafter, through the early to middle portion of next week, models indicate that, as the persistent area of lower mid-level heights retreats to the north and east, mid/upper flow may become more supportive of strong cyclogenesis across Nebraska into the mid/lower Missouri Valley by late next Tuesday night. However, it appears that this will occur before the boundary-layer over the northwestern Gulf recovers sufficiently to support a substantive moist return flow. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... In the wake of renewed cyclogenesis across and north of the Canadian Maritimes, it appears that a broad area of lower mid-level heights will linger across the Great Lakes and Northeast late this week through the coming weekend. This may contribute to the maintenance of a confluent mid-level regime to the east of the Rockies, as much of the western and southern U.S. remains under the influence of one prominent belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific. One embedded short wave trough digging into the Southwest with an evolving mid-level low by early Friday is forecast to progress across the southern Rockies by 12Z Saturday. Subsequent development across and east of the southern Great Plains over the weekend into early next week remains much more unclear. ECENS/ECMWF-based guidance suggests that this feature emerges as an increasingly sheared perturbation across the southern tier, supportive of only low amplitude frontal wave development, until progressing across and east of the south Atlantic Seaboard. GEFS/GFS-based guidance forecasts similar shearing across the southern Great Plains, before phasing with an amplifying wave within the cyclonic regime initially confined to the Great Lakes vicinity. This would probably be accompanied by more substantive cyclogenesis, with a moistening and destabilizing warm sector which could become supportive of organized severe weather potential. Thereafter, through the early to middle portion of next week, models indicate that, as the persistent area of lower mid-level heights retreats to the north and east, mid/upper flow may become more supportive of strong cyclogenesis across Nebraska into the mid/lower Missouri Valley by late next Tuesday night. However, it appears that this will occur before the boundary-layer over the northwestern Gulf recovers sufficiently to support a substantive moist return flow. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible Thursday across parts of central California through the Great Basin and parts of the southern Rockies. ...Discussion... As the center of a broad and deep, occluding cyclone migrates into southwestern Quebec by early Thursday, a significant trailing cold front is forecast to have overspread much of the Gulf Basin. It does appear that the boundary layer may begin to undergo substantive modification across the southwestern Gulf Basin, northward toward lower Texas coastal areas by late Thursday night. However, dry,stable conditions are likely to prevail across much of the southern Great Plains, as renewed cyclogenesis occurs to the lee of the Colorado Rockies. Beneath a generally confluent mid-level flow regime, it still appears that the cyclone, and supporting mid-level short wave perturbation emerging from larger-scale troughing progressing inland of the Pacific coast, will weaken while shifting eastward through the central Great Plains Thursday night into early Friday. Trailing the lead short wave, models indicate that a more prominent mid-level short wave trough will dig inland across central/southern California and into the lower Colorado Valley by 12Z Friday. Cold mid-level air overspreading central California through the southern Great Basin and portions of the southern Rockies, in association with these developments, is likely to contribute to weak destabilization with daytime heating. It appears that this will become sufficient to support widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible Thursday across parts of central California through the Great Basin and parts of the southern Rockies. ...Discussion... As the center of a broad and deep, occluding cyclone migrates into southwestern Quebec by early Thursday, a significant trailing cold front is forecast to have overspread much of the Gulf Basin. It does appear that the boundary layer may begin to undergo substantive modification across the southwestern Gulf Basin, northward toward lower Texas coastal areas by late Thursday night. However, dry,stable conditions are likely to prevail across much of the southern Great Plains, as renewed cyclogenesis occurs to the lee of the Colorado Rockies. Beneath a generally confluent mid-level flow regime, it still appears that the cyclone, and supporting mid-level short wave perturbation emerging from larger-scale troughing progressing inland of the Pacific coast, will weaken while shifting eastward through the central Great Plains Thursday night into early Friday. Trailing the lead short wave, models indicate that a more prominent mid-level short wave trough will dig inland across central/southern California and into the lower Colorado Valley by 12Z Friday. Cold mid-level air overspreading central California through the southern Great Basin and portions of the southern Rockies, in association with these developments, is likely to contribute to weak destabilization with daytime heating. It appears that this will become sufficient to support widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible Thursday across parts of central California through the Great Basin and parts of the southern Rockies. ...Discussion... As the center of a broad and deep, occluding cyclone migrates into southwestern Quebec by early Thursday, a significant trailing cold front is forecast to have overspread much of the Gulf Basin. It does appear that the boundary layer may begin to undergo substantive modification across the southwestern Gulf Basin, northward toward lower Texas coastal areas by late Thursday night. However, dry,stable conditions are likely to prevail across much of the southern Great Plains, as renewed cyclogenesis occurs to the lee of the Colorado Rockies. Beneath a generally confluent mid-level flow regime, it still appears that the cyclone, and supporting mid-level short wave perturbation emerging from larger-scale troughing progressing inland of the Pacific coast, will weaken while shifting eastward through the central Great Plains Thursday night into early Friday. Trailing the lead short wave, models indicate that a more prominent mid-level short wave trough will dig inland across central/southern California and into the lower Colorado Valley by 12Z Friday. Cold mid-level air overspreading central California through the southern Great Basin and portions of the southern Rockies, in association with these developments, is likely to contribute to weak destabilization with daytime heating. It appears that this will become sufficient to support widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible Thursday across parts of central California through the Great Basin and parts of the southern Rockies. ...Discussion... As the center of a broad and deep, occluding cyclone migrates into southwestern Quebec by early Thursday, a significant trailing cold front is forecast to have overspread much of the Gulf Basin. It does appear that the boundary layer may begin to undergo substantive modification across the southwestern Gulf Basin, northward toward lower Texas coastal areas by late Thursday night. However, dry,stable conditions are likely to prevail across much of the southern Great Plains, as renewed cyclogenesis occurs to the lee of the Colorado Rockies. Beneath a generally confluent mid-level flow regime, it still appears that the cyclone, and supporting mid-level short wave perturbation emerging from larger-scale troughing progressing inland of the Pacific coast, will weaken while shifting eastward through the central Great Plains Thursday night into early Friday. Trailing the lead short wave, models indicate that a more prominent mid-level short wave trough will dig inland across central/southern California and into the lower Colorado Valley by 12Z Friday. Cold mid-level air overspreading central California through the southern Great Basin and portions of the southern Rockies, in association with these developments, is likely to contribute to weak destabilization with daytime heating. It appears that this will become sufficient to support widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible Thursday across parts of central California through the Great Basin and parts of the southern Rockies. ...Discussion... As the center of a broad and deep, occluding cyclone migrates into southwestern Quebec by early Thursday, a significant trailing cold front is forecast to have overspread much of the Gulf Basin. It does appear that the boundary layer may begin to undergo substantive modification across the southwestern Gulf Basin, northward toward lower Texas coastal areas by late Thursday night. However, dry,stable conditions are likely to prevail across much of the southern Great Plains, as renewed cyclogenesis occurs to the lee of the Colorado Rockies. Beneath a generally confluent mid-level flow regime, it still appears that the cyclone, and supporting mid-level short wave perturbation emerging from larger-scale troughing progressing inland of the Pacific coast, will weaken while shifting eastward through the central Great Plains Thursday night into early Friday. Trailing the lead short wave, models indicate that a more prominent mid-level short wave trough will dig inland across central/southern California and into the lower Colorado Valley by 12Z Friday. Cold mid-level air overspreading central California through the southern Great Basin and portions of the southern Rockies, in association with these developments, is likely to contribute to weak destabilization with daytime heating. It appears that this will become sufficient to support widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible Thursday across parts of central California through the Great Basin and parts of the southern Rockies. ...Discussion... As the center of a broad and deep, occluding cyclone migrates into southwestern Quebec by early Thursday, a significant trailing cold front is forecast to have overspread much of the Gulf Basin. It does appear that the boundary layer may begin to undergo substantive modification across the southwestern Gulf Basin, northward toward lower Texas coastal areas by late Thursday night. However, dry,stable conditions are likely to prevail across much of the southern Great Plains, as renewed cyclogenesis occurs to the lee of the Colorado Rockies. Beneath a generally confluent mid-level flow regime, it still appears that the cyclone, and supporting mid-level short wave perturbation emerging from larger-scale troughing progressing inland of the Pacific coast, will weaken while shifting eastward through the central Great Plains Thursday night into early Friday. Trailing the lead short wave, models indicate that a more prominent mid-level short wave trough will dig inland across central/southern California and into the lower Colorado Valley by 12Z Friday. Cold mid-level air overspreading central California through the southern Great Basin and portions of the southern Rockies, in association with these developments, is likely to contribute to weak destabilization with daytime heating. It appears that this will become sufficient to support widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible Thursday across parts of central California through the Great Basin and parts of the southern Rockies. ...Discussion... As the center of a broad and deep, occluding cyclone migrates into southwestern Quebec by early Thursday, a significant trailing cold front is forecast to have overspread much of the Gulf Basin. It does appear that the boundary layer may begin to undergo substantive modification across the southwestern Gulf Basin, northward toward lower Texas coastal areas by late Thursday night. However, dry,stable conditions are likely to prevail across much of the southern Great Plains, as renewed cyclogenesis occurs to the lee of the Colorado Rockies. Beneath a generally confluent mid-level flow regime, it still appears that the cyclone, and supporting mid-level short wave perturbation emerging from larger-scale troughing progressing inland of the Pacific coast, will weaken while shifting eastward through the central Great Plains Thursday night into early Friday. Trailing the lead short wave, models indicate that a more prominent mid-level short wave trough will dig inland across central/southern California and into the lower Colorado Valley by 12Z Friday. Cold mid-level air overspreading central California through the southern Great Basin and portions of the southern Rockies, in association with these developments, is likely to contribute to weak destabilization with daytime heating. It appears that this will become sufficient to support widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible Thursday across parts of central California through the Great Basin and parts of the southern Rockies. ...Discussion... As the center of a broad and deep, occluding cyclone migrates into southwestern Quebec by early Thursday, a significant trailing cold front is forecast to have overspread much of the Gulf Basin. It does appear that the boundary layer may begin to undergo substantive modification across the southwestern Gulf Basin, northward toward lower Texas coastal areas by late Thursday night. However, dry,stable conditions are likely to prevail across much of the southern Great Plains, as renewed cyclogenesis occurs to the lee of the Colorado Rockies. Beneath a generally confluent mid-level flow regime, it still appears that the cyclone, and supporting mid-level short wave perturbation emerging from larger-scale troughing progressing inland of the Pacific coast, will weaken while shifting eastward through the central Great Plains Thursday night into early Friday. Trailing the lead short wave, models indicate that a more prominent mid-level short wave trough will dig inland across central/southern California and into the lower Colorado Valley by 12Z Friday. Cold mid-level air overspreading central California through the southern Great Basin and portions of the southern Rockies, in association with these developments, is likely to contribute to weak destabilization with daytime heating. It appears that this will become sufficient to support widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible Thursday across parts of central California through the Great Basin and parts of the southern Rockies. ...Discussion... As the center of a broad and deep, occluding cyclone migrates into southwestern Quebec by early Thursday, a significant trailing cold front is forecast to have overspread much of the Gulf Basin. It does appear that the boundary layer may begin to undergo substantive modification across the southwestern Gulf Basin, northward toward lower Texas coastal areas by late Thursday night. However, dry,stable conditions are likely to prevail across much of the southern Great Plains, as renewed cyclogenesis occurs to the lee of the Colorado Rockies. Beneath a generally confluent mid-level flow regime, it still appears that the cyclone, and supporting mid-level short wave perturbation emerging from larger-scale troughing progressing inland of the Pacific coast, will weaken while shifting eastward through the central Great Plains Thursday night into early Friday. Trailing the lead short wave, models indicate that a more prominent mid-level short wave trough will dig inland across central/southern California and into the lower Colorado Valley by 12Z Friday. Cold mid-level air overspreading central California through the southern Great Basin and portions of the southern Rockies, in association with these developments, is likely to contribute to weak destabilization with daytime heating. It appears that this will become sufficient to support widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible Thursday across parts of central California through the Great Basin and parts of the southern Rockies. ...Discussion... As the center of a broad and deep, occluding cyclone migrates into southwestern Quebec by early Thursday, a significant trailing cold front is forecast to have overspread much of the Gulf Basin. It does appear that the boundary layer may begin to undergo substantive modification across the southwestern Gulf Basin, northward toward lower Texas coastal areas by late Thursday night. However, dry,stable conditions are likely to prevail across much of the southern Great Plains, as renewed cyclogenesis occurs to the lee of the Colorado Rockies. Beneath a generally confluent mid-level flow regime, it still appears that the cyclone, and supporting mid-level short wave perturbation emerging from larger-scale troughing progressing inland of the Pacific coast, will weaken while shifting eastward through the central Great Plains Thursday night into early Friday. Trailing the lead short wave, models indicate that a more prominent mid-level short wave trough will dig inland across central/southern California and into the lower Colorado Valley by 12Z Friday. Cold mid-level air overspreading central California through the southern Great Basin and portions of the southern Rockies, in association with these developments, is likely to contribute to weak destabilization with daytime heating. It appears that this will become sufficient to support widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible Thursday across parts of central California through the Great Basin and parts of the southern Rockies. ...Discussion... As the center of a broad and deep, occluding cyclone migrates into southwestern Quebec by early Thursday, a significant trailing cold front is forecast to have overspread much of the Gulf Basin. It does appear that the boundary layer may begin to undergo substantive modification across the southwestern Gulf Basin, northward toward lower Texas coastal areas by late Thursday night. However, dry,stable conditions are likely to prevail across much of the southern Great Plains, as renewed cyclogenesis occurs to the lee of the Colorado Rockies. Beneath a generally confluent mid-level flow regime, it still appears that the cyclone, and supporting mid-level short wave perturbation emerging from larger-scale troughing progressing inland of the Pacific coast, will weaken while shifting eastward through the central Great Plains Thursday night into early Friday. Trailing the lead short wave, models indicate that a more prominent mid-level short wave trough will dig inland across central/southern California and into the lower Colorado Valley by 12Z Friday. Cold mid-level air overspreading central California through the southern Great Basin and portions of the southern Rockies, in association with these developments, is likely to contribute to weak destabilization with daytime heating. It appears that this will become sufficient to support widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible Thursday across parts of central California through the Great Basin and parts of the southern Rockies. ...Discussion... As the center of a broad and deep, occluding cyclone migrates into southwestern Quebec by early Thursday, a significant trailing cold front is forecast to have overspread much of the Gulf Basin. It does appear that the boundary layer may begin to undergo substantive modification across the southwestern Gulf Basin, northward toward lower Texas coastal areas by late Thursday night. However, dry,stable conditions are likely to prevail across much of the southern Great Plains, as renewed cyclogenesis occurs to the lee of the Colorado Rockies. Beneath a generally confluent mid-level flow regime, it still appears that the cyclone, and supporting mid-level short wave perturbation emerging from larger-scale troughing progressing inland of the Pacific coast, will weaken while shifting eastward through the central Great Plains Thursday night into early Friday. Trailing the lead short wave, models indicate that a more prominent mid-level short wave trough will dig inland across central/southern California and into the lower Colorado Valley by 12Z Friday. Cold mid-level air overspreading central California through the southern Great Basin and portions of the southern Rockies, in association with these developments, is likely to contribute to weak destabilization with daytime heating. It appears that this will become sufficient to support widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible Thursday across parts of central California through the Great Basin and parts of the southern Rockies. ...Discussion... As the center of a broad and deep, occluding cyclone migrates into southwestern Quebec by early Thursday, a significant trailing cold front is forecast to have overspread much of the Gulf Basin. It does appear that the boundary layer may begin to undergo substantive modification across the southwestern Gulf Basin, northward toward lower Texas coastal areas by late Thursday night. However, dry,stable conditions are likely to prevail across much of the southern Great Plains, as renewed cyclogenesis occurs to the lee of the Colorado Rockies. Beneath a generally confluent mid-level flow regime, it still appears that the cyclone, and supporting mid-level short wave perturbation emerging from larger-scale troughing progressing inland of the Pacific coast, will weaken while shifting eastward through the central Great Plains Thursday night into early Friday. Trailing the lead short wave, models indicate that a more prominent mid-level short wave trough will dig inland across central/southern California and into the lower Colorado Valley by 12Z Friday. Cold mid-level air overspreading central California through the southern Great Basin and portions of the southern Rockies, in association with these developments, is likely to contribute to weak destabilization with daytime heating. It appears that this will become sufficient to support widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 03/04/2025 Read more