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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...North and East Texas and Oklahoma eastward to the southern Appalachians/Southeast... Water-vapor imagery shows a large-scale mid to upper-level trough moving east across the central and southern High Plains this morning. Several embedded perturbations are rotating through the larger-scale upper feature with the most notable feature being a 100+ kt 500-mb speed max forecast to move from south-central TX through the lower MS Valley and into the TN Valley/Mid South tonight. Meanwhile a deepening surface low will move from KS into the mid MS Valley during the period as a cold front sweeps east across the Mid South and central Gulf Coast later today/tonight. A severe squall line is ongoing this morning from central TX north-northeastward into eastern OK. Intense shear profiles within an adequately unstable warm/moist sector will favor severe gusts with the bowing segments as this mature squall line rapidly moves east across eastern OK/TX this morning. A risk for a few tornadoes will accompany the band of storms as this activity moves east across the Ark-La-Tex and into the Ark-La-Miss during the day. Forecast soundings show very large hodographs which will support storm-scale rotation with the stronger cells either embedded within or that can develop ahead of the squall line. Strong tornado potential exists given the wind field across the lower MS Valley where diurnal destabilization and northward-returning Gulf moisture will aid in storm intensity/coverage. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and tornadoes will become the primary severe hazards. Have expanded Slight-Risk and Enhanced-Risk equivalent severe probabilities farther east across southern AL and southwestern GA where confidence in a surface-based severe threat appear greatest. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Farther east, across Missouri and into western Illinois, elevated storms east of the primary zone of convection may pose limited/local risk for marginal hail during the morning and into the afternoon hours. ..Smith/Bentley.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...North and East Texas and Oklahoma eastward to the southern Appalachians/Southeast... Water-vapor imagery shows a large-scale mid to upper-level trough moving east across the central and southern High Plains this morning. Several embedded perturbations are rotating through the larger-scale upper feature with the most notable feature being a 100+ kt 500-mb speed max forecast to move from south-central TX through the lower MS Valley and into the TN Valley/Mid South tonight. Meanwhile a deepening surface low will move from KS into the mid MS Valley during the period as a cold front sweeps east across the Mid South and central Gulf Coast later today/tonight. A severe squall line is ongoing this morning from central TX north-northeastward into eastern OK. Intense shear profiles within an adequately unstable warm/moist sector will favor severe gusts with the bowing segments as this mature squall line rapidly moves east across eastern OK/TX this morning. A risk for a few tornadoes will accompany the band of storms as this activity moves east across the Ark-La-Tex and into the Ark-La-Miss during the day. Forecast soundings show very large hodographs which will support storm-scale rotation with the stronger cells either embedded within or that can develop ahead of the squall line. Strong tornado potential exists given the wind field across the lower MS Valley where diurnal destabilization and northward-returning Gulf moisture will aid in storm intensity/coverage. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and tornadoes will become the primary severe hazards. Have expanded Slight-Risk and Enhanced-Risk equivalent severe probabilities farther east across southern AL and southwestern GA where confidence in a surface-based severe threat appear greatest. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Farther east, across Missouri and into western Illinois, elevated storms east of the primary zone of convection may pose limited/local risk for marginal hail during the morning and into the afternoon hours. ..Smith/Bentley.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...North and East Texas and Oklahoma eastward to the southern Appalachians/Southeast... Water-vapor imagery shows a large-scale mid to upper-level trough moving east across the central and southern High Plains this morning. Several embedded perturbations are rotating through the larger-scale upper feature with the most notable feature being a 100+ kt 500-mb speed max forecast to move from south-central TX through the lower MS Valley and into the TN Valley/Mid South tonight. Meanwhile a deepening surface low will move from KS into the mid MS Valley during the period as a cold front sweeps east across the Mid South and central Gulf Coast later today/tonight. A severe squall line is ongoing this morning from central TX north-northeastward into eastern OK. Intense shear profiles within an adequately unstable warm/moist sector will favor severe gusts with the bowing segments as this mature squall line rapidly moves east across eastern OK/TX this morning. A risk for a few tornadoes will accompany the band of storms as this activity moves east across the Ark-La-Tex and into the Ark-La-Miss during the day. Forecast soundings show very large hodographs which will support storm-scale rotation with the stronger cells either embedded within or that can develop ahead of the squall line. Strong tornado potential exists given the wind field across the lower MS Valley where diurnal destabilization and northward-returning Gulf moisture will aid in storm intensity/coverage. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and tornadoes will become the primary severe hazards. Have expanded Slight-Risk and Enhanced-Risk equivalent severe probabilities farther east across southern AL and southwestern GA where confidence in a surface-based severe threat appear greatest. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Farther east, across Missouri and into western Illinois, elevated storms east of the primary zone of convection may pose limited/local risk for marginal hail during the morning and into the afternoon hours. ..Smith/Bentley.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...North and East Texas and Oklahoma eastward to the southern Appalachians/Southeast... Water-vapor imagery shows a large-scale mid to upper-level trough moving east across the central and southern High Plains this morning. Several embedded perturbations are rotating through the larger-scale upper feature with the most notable feature being a 100+ kt 500-mb speed max forecast to move from south-central TX through the lower MS Valley and into the TN Valley/Mid South tonight. Meanwhile a deepening surface low will move from KS into the mid MS Valley during the period as a cold front sweeps east across the Mid South and central Gulf Coast later today/tonight. A severe squall line is ongoing this morning from central TX north-northeastward into eastern OK. Intense shear profiles within an adequately unstable warm/moist sector will favor severe gusts with the bowing segments as this mature squall line rapidly moves east across eastern OK/TX this morning. A risk for a few tornadoes will accompany the band of storms as this activity moves east across the Ark-La-Tex and into the Ark-La-Miss during the day. Forecast soundings show very large hodographs which will support storm-scale rotation with the stronger cells either embedded within or that can develop ahead of the squall line. Strong tornado potential exists given the wind field across the lower MS Valley where diurnal destabilization and northward-returning Gulf moisture will aid in storm intensity/coverage. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and tornadoes will become the primary severe hazards. Have expanded Slight-Risk and Enhanced-Risk equivalent severe probabilities farther east across southern AL and southwestern GA where confidence in a surface-based severe threat appear greatest. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Farther east, across Missouri and into western Illinois, elevated storms east of the primary zone of convection may pose limited/local risk for marginal hail during the morning and into the afternoon hours. ..Smith/Bentley.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...North and East Texas and Oklahoma eastward to the southern Appalachians/Southeast... Water-vapor imagery shows a large-scale mid to upper-level trough moving east across the central and southern High Plains this morning. Several embedded perturbations are rotating through the larger-scale upper feature with the most notable feature being a 100+ kt 500-mb speed max forecast to move from south-central TX through the lower MS Valley and into the TN Valley/Mid South tonight. Meanwhile a deepening surface low will move from KS into the mid MS Valley during the period as a cold front sweeps east across the Mid South and central Gulf Coast later today/tonight. A severe squall line is ongoing this morning from central TX north-northeastward into eastern OK. Intense shear profiles within an adequately unstable warm/moist sector will favor severe gusts with the bowing segments as this mature squall line rapidly moves east across eastern OK/TX this morning. A risk for a few tornadoes will accompany the band of storms as this activity moves east across the Ark-La-Tex and into the Ark-La-Miss during the day. Forecast soundings show very large hodographs which will support storm-scale rotation with the stronger cells either embedded within or that can develop ahead of the squall line. Strong tornado potential exists given the wind field across the lower MS Valley where diurnal destabilization and northward-returning Gulf moisture will aid in storm intensity/coverage. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and tornadoes will become the primary severe hazards. Have expanded Slight-Risk and Enhanced-Risk equivalent severe probabilities farther east across southern AL and southwestern GA where confidence in a surface-based severe threat appear greatest. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Farther east, across Missouri and into western Illinois, elevated storms east of the primary zone of convection may pose limited/local risk for marginal hail during the morning and into the afternoon hours. ..Smith/Bentley.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...North and East Texas and Oklahoma eastward to the southern Appalachians/Southeast... Water-vapor imagery shows a large-scale mid to upper-level trough moving east across the central and southern High Plains this morning. Several embedded perturbations are rotating through the larger-scale upper feature with the most notable feature being a 100+ kt 500-mb speed max forecast to move from south-central TX through the lower MS Valley and into the TN Valley/Mid South tonight. Meanwhile a deepening surface low will move from KS into the mid MS Valley during the period as a cold front sweeps east across the Mid South and central Gulf Coast later today/tonight. A severe squall line is ongoing this morning from central TX north-northeastward into eastern OK. Intense shear profiles within an adequately unstable warm/moist sector will favor severe gusts with the bowing segments as this mature squall line rapidly moves east across eastern OK/TX this morning. A risk for a few tornadoes will accompany the band of storms as this activity moves east across the Ark-La-Tex and into the Ark-La-Miss during the day. Forecast soundings show very large hodographs which will support storm-scale rotation with the stronger cells either embedded within or that can develop ahead of the squall line. Strong tornado potential exists given the wind field across the lower MS Valley where diurnal destabilization and northward-returning Gulf moisture will aid in storm intensity/coverage. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and tornadoes will become the primary severe hazards. Have expanded Slight-Risk and Enhanced-Risk equivalent severe probabilities farther east across southern AL and southwestern GA where confidence in a surface-based severe threat appear greatest. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Farther east, across Missouri and into western Illinois, elevated storms east of the primary zone of convection may pose limited/local risk for marginal hail during the morning and into the afternoon hours. ..Smith/Bentley.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...North and East Texas and Oklahoma eastward to the southern Appalachians/Southeast... Water-vapor imagery shows a large-scale mid to upper-level trough moving east across the central and southern High Plains this morning. Several embedded perturbations are rotating through the larger-scale upper feature with the most notable feature being a 100+ kt 500-mb speed max forecast to move from south-central TX through the lower MS Valley and into the TN Valley/Mid South tonight. Meanwhile a deepening surface low will move from KS into the mid MS Valley during the period as a cold front sweeps east across the Mid South and central Gulf Coast later today/tonight. A severe squall line is ongoing this morning from central TX north-northeastward into eastern OK. Intense shear profiles within an adequately unstable warm/moist sector will favor severe gusts with the bowing segments as this mature squall line rapidly moves east across eastern OK/TX this morning. A risk for a few tornadoes will accompany the band of storms as this activity moves east across the Ark-La-Tex and into the Ark-La-Miss during the day. Forecast soundings show very large hodographs which will support storm-scale rotation with the stronger cells either embedded within or that can develop ahead of the squall line. Strong tornado potential exists given the wind field across the lower MS Valley where diurnal destabilization and northward-returning Gulf moisture will aid in storm intensity/coverage. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and tornadoes will become the primary severe hazards. Have expanded Slight-Risk and Enhanced-Risk equivalent severe probabilities farther east across southern AL and southwestern GA where confidence in a surface-based severe threat appear greatest. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Farther east, across Missouri and into western Illinois, elevated storms east of the primary zone of convection may pose limited/local risk for marginal hail during the morning and into the afternoon hours. ..Smith/Bentley.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...North and East Texas and Oklahoma eastward to the southern Appalachians/Southeast... Water-vapor imagery shows a large-scale mid to upper-level trough moving east across the central and southern High Plains this morning. Several embedded perturbations are rotating through the larger-scale upper feature with the most notable feature being a 100+ kt 500-mb speed max forecast to move from south-central TX through the lower MS Valley and into the TN Valley/Mid South tonight. Meanwhile a deepening surface low will move from KS into the mid MS Valley during the period as a cold front sweeps east across the Mid South and central Gulf Coast later today/tonight. A severe squall line is ongoing this morning from central TX north-northeastward into eastern OK. Intense shear profiles within an adequately unstable warm/moist sector will favor severe gusts with the bowing segments as this mature squall line rapidly moves east across eastern OK/TX this morning. A risk for a few tornadoes will accompany the band of storms as this activity moves east across the Ark-La-Tex and into the Ark-La-Miss during the day. Forecast soundings show very large hodographs which will support storm-scale rotation with the stronger cells either embedded within or that can develop ahead of the squall line. Strong tornado potential exists given the wind field across the lower MS Valley where diurnal destabilization and northward-returning Gulf moisture will aid in storm intensity/coverage. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and tornadoes will become the primary severe hazards. Have expanded Slight-Risk and Enhanced-Risk equivalent severe probabilities farther east across southern AL and southwestern GA where confidence in a surface-based severe threat appear greatest. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Farther east, across Missouri and into western Illinois, elevated storms east of the primary zone of convection may pose limited/local risk for marginal hail during the morning and into the afternoon hours. ..Smith/Bentley.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...North and East Texas and Oklahoma eastward to the southern Appalachians/Southeast... Water-vapor imagery shows a large-scale mid to upper-level trough moving east across the central and southern High Plains this morning. Several embedded perturbations are rotating through the larger-scale upper feature with the most notable feature being a 100+ kt 500-mb speed max forecast to move from south-central TX through the lower MS Valley and into the TN Valley/Mid South tonight. Meanwhile a deepening surface low will move from KS into the mid MS Valley during the period as a cold front sweeps east across the Mid South and central Gulf Coast later today/tonight. A severe squall line is ongoing this morning from central TX north-northeastward into eastern OK. Intense shear profiles within an adequately unstable warm/moist sector will favor severe gusts with the bowing segments as this mature squall line rapidly moves east across eastern OK/TX this morning. A risk for a few tornadoes will accompany the band of storms as this activity moves east across the Ark-La-Tex and into the Ark-La-Miss during the day. Forecast soundings show very large hodographs which will support storm-scale rotation with the stronger cells either embedded within or that can develop ahead of the squall line. Strong tornado potential exists given the wind field across the lower MS Valley where diurnal destabilization and northward-returning Gulf moisture will aid in storm intensity/coverage. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and tornadoes will become the primary severe hazards. Have expanded Slight-Risk and Enhanced-Risk equivalent severe probabilities farther east across southern AL and southwestern GA where confidence in a surface-based severe threat appear greatest. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Farther east, across Missouri and into western Illinois, elevated storms east of the primary zone of convection may pose limited/local risk for marginal hail during the morning and into the afternoon hours. ..Smith/Bentley.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...North and East Texas and Oklahoma eastward to the southern Appalachians/Southeast... Water-vapor imagery shows a large-scale mid to upper-level trough moving east across the central and southern High Plains this morning. Several embedded perturbations are rotating through the larger-scale upper feature with the most notable feature being a 100+ kt 500-mb speed max forecast to move from south-central TX through the lower MS Valley and into the TN Valley/Mid South tonight. Meanwhile a deepening surface low will move from KS into the mid MS Valley during the period as a cold front sweeps east across the Mid South and central Gulf Coast later today/tonight. A severe squall line is ongoing this morning from central TX north-northeastward into eastern OK. Intense shear profiles within an adequately unstable warm/moist sector will favor severe gusts with the bowing segments as this mature squall line rapidly moves east across eastern OK/TX this morning. A risk for a few tornadoes will accompany the band of storms as this activity moves east across the Ark-La-Tex and into the Ark-La-Miss during the day. Forecast soundings show very large hodographs which will support storm-scale rotation with the stronger cells either embedded within or that can develop ahead of the squall line. Strong tornado potential exists given the wind field across the lower MS Valley where diurnal destabilization and northward-returning Gulf moisture will aid in storm intensity/coverage. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and tornadoes will become the primary severe hazards. Have expanded Slight-Risk and Enhanced-Risk equivalent severe probabilities farther east across southern AL and southwestern GA where confidence in a surface-based severe threat appear greatest. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Farther east, across Missouri and into western Illinois, elevated storms east of the primary zone of convection may pose limited/local risk for marginal hail during the morning and into the afternoon hours. ..Smith/Bentley.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...North and East Texas and Oklahoma eastward to the southern Appalachians/Southeast... Water-vapor imagery shows a large-scale mid to upper-level trough moving east across the central and southern High Plains this morning. Several embedded perturbations are rotating through the larger-scale upper feature with the most notable feature being a 100+ kt 500-mb speed max forecast to move from south-central TX through the lower MS Valley and into the TN Valley/Mid South tonight. Meanwhile a deepening surface low will move from KS into the mid MS Valley during the period as a cold front sweeps east across the Mid South and central Gulf Coast later today/tonight. A severe squall line is ongoing this morning from central TX north-northeastward into eastern OK. Intense shear profiles within an adequately unstable warm/moist sector will favor severe gusts with the bowing segments as this mature squall line rapidly moves east across eastern OK/TX this morning. A risk for a few tornadoes will accompany the band of storms as this activity moves east across the Ark-La-Tex and into the Ark-La-Miss during the day. Forecast soundings show very large hodographs which will support storm-scale rotation with the stronger cells either embedded within or that can develop ahead of the squall line. Strong tornado potential exists given the wind field across the lower MS Valley where diurnal destabilization and northward-returning Gulf moisture will aid in storm intensity/coverage. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and tornadoes will become the primary severe hazards. Have expanded Slight-Risk and Enhanced-Risk equivalent severe probabilities farther east across southern AL and southwestern GA where confidence in a surface-based severe threat appear greatest. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Farther east, across Missouri and into western Illinois, elevated storms east of the primary zone of convection may pose limited/local risk for marginal hail during the morning and into the afternoon hours. ..Smith/Bentley.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...North and East Texas and Oklahoma eastward to the southern Appalachians/Southeast... Water-vapor imagery shows a large-scale mid to upper-level trough moving east across the central and southern High Plains this morning. Several embedded perturbations are rotating through the larger-scale upper feature with the most notable feature being a 100+ kt 500-mb speed max forecast to move from south-central TX through the lower MS Valley and into the TN Valley/Mid South tonight. Meanwhile a deepening surface low will move from KS into the mid MS Valley during the period as a cold front sweeps east across the Mid South and central Gulf Coast later today/tonight. A severe squall line is ongoing this morning from central TX north-northeastward into eastern OK. Intense shear profiles within an adequately unstable warm/moist sector will favor severe gusts with the bowing segments as this mature squall line rapidly moves east across eastern OK/TX this morning. A risk for a few tornadoes will accompany the band of storms as this activity moves east across the Ark-La-Tex and into the Ark-La-Miss during the day. Forecast soundings show very large hodographs which will support storm-scale rotation with the stronger cells either embedded within or that can develop ahead of the squall line. Strong tornado potential exists given the wind field across the lower MS Valley where diurnal destabilization and northward-returning Gulf moisture will aid in storm intensity/coverage. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and tornadoes will become the primary severe hazards. Have expanded Slight-Risk and Enhanced-Risk equivalent severe probabilities farther east across southern AL and southwestern GA where confidence in a surface-based severe threat appear greatest. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Farther east, across Missouri and into western Illinois, elevated storms east of the primary zone of convection may pose limited/local risk for marginal hail during the morning and into the afternoon hours. ..Smith/Bentley.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...North and East Texas and Oklahoma eastward to the southern Appalachians/Southeast... Water-vapor imagery shows a large-scale mid to upper-level trough moving east across the central and southern High Plains this morning. Several embedded perturbations are rotating through the larger-scale upper feature with the most notable feature being a 100+ kt 500-mb speed max forecast to move from south-central TX through the lower MS Valley and into the TN Valley/Mid South tonight. Meanwhile a deepening surface low will move from KS into the mid MS Valley during the period as a cold front sweeps east across the Mid South and central Gulf Coast later today/tonight. A severe squall line is ongoing this morning from central TX north-northeastward into eastern OK. Intense shear profiles within an adequately unstable warm/moist sector will favor severe gusts with the bowing segments as this mature squall line rapidly moves east across eastern OK/TX this morning. A risk for a few tornadoes will accompany the band of storms as this activity moves east across the Ark-La-Tex and into the Ark-La-Miss during the day. Forecast soundings show very large hodographs which will support storm-scale rotation with the stronger cells either embedded within or that can develop ahead of the squall line. Strong tornado potential exists given the wind field across the lower MS Valley where diurnal destabilization and northward-returning Gulf moisture will aid in storm intensity/coverage. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and tornadoes will become the primary severe hazards. Have expanded Slight-Risk and Enhanced-Risk equivalent severe probabilities farther east across southern AL and southwestern GA where confidence in a surface-based severe threat appear greatest. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Farther east, across Missouri and into western Illinois, elevated storms east of the primary zone of convection may pose limited/local risk for marginal hail during the morning and into the afternoon hours. ..Smith/Bentley.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...North and East Texas and Oklahoma eastward to the southern Appalachians/Southeast... Water-vapor imagery shows a large-scale mid to upper-level trough moving east across the central and southern High Plains this morning. Several embedded perturbations are rotating through the larger-scale upper feature with the most notable feature being a 100+ kt 500-mb speed max forecast to move from south-central TX through the lower MS Valley and into the TN Valley/Mid South tonight. Meanwhile a deepening surface low will move from KS into the mid MS Valley during the period as a cold front sweeps east across the Mid South and central Gulf Coast later today/tonight. A severe squall line is ongoing this morning from central TX north-northeastward into eastern OK. Intense shear profiles within an adequately unstable warm/moist sector will favor severe gusts with the bowing segments as this mature squall line rapidly moves east across eastern OK/TX this morning. A risk for a few tornadoes will accompany the band of storms as this activity moves east across the Ark-La-Tex and into the Ark-La-Miss during the day. Forecast soundings show very large hodographs which will support storm-scale rotation with the stronger cells either embedded within or that can develop ahead of the squall line. Strong tornado potential exists given the wind field across the lower MS Valley where diurnal destabilization and northward-returning Gulf moisture will aid in storm intensity/coverage. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and tornadoes will become the primary severe hazards. Have expanded Slight-Risk and Enhanced-Risk equivalent severe probabilities farther east across southern AL and southwestern GA where confidence in a surface-based severe threat appear greatest. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Farther east, across Missouri and into western Illinois, elevated storms east of the primary zone of convection may pose limited/local risk for marginal hail during the morning and into the afternoon hours. ..Smith/Bentley.. 03/04/2025 Read more

WW 0019 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0019 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0018 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 18 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N CLL TO 30 SW TYR TO 40 NNE TYR TO 25 E PRX TO 40 SW RKR TO 30 SSE MKO. ..BENTLEY..03/04/25 ATTN...WFO...SHV...LZK...OUN...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 18 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC061-081-091-113-127-133-041440- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HOWARD LITTLE RIVER MILLER POLK SCOTT SEVIER OKC001-021-079-089-135-041440- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR CHEROKEE LE FLORE MCCURTAIN SEQUOYAH TXC001-037-063-067-073-159-161-183-203-315-343-387-401-423-449- 459-041440- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BOWIE CAMP Read more

WW 0018 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 18 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE TPL TO 25 NE ACT TO 15 NNW CRS TO 40 E DAL TO 40 SW PRX TO 25 W PRX TO 30 S MLC TO 25 WSW MKO. ..JEWELL..03/04/25 ATTN...WFO...SHV...LZK...OUN...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 18 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC061-081-091-113-127-133-041340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HOWARD LITTLE RIVER MILLER POLK SCOTT SEVIER OKC001-021-023-061-077-079-089-091-101-121-127-135-145-041340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR CHEROKEE CHOCTAW HASKELL LATIMER LE FLORE MCCURTAIN MCINTOSH MUSKOGEE PITTSBURG PUSHMATAHA SEQUOYAH WAGONER TXC001-037-063-067-073-119-159-161-183-203-213-223-231-257-277- 293-315-343-349-379-387-401-423-449-459-467-499-041340- Read more

MD 0127 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 17... FOR WEST-CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0127 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Areas affected...west-central into northern Texas and south-central Oklahoma Concerning...Tornado Watch 17... Valid 040838Z - 041045Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 17 continues. SUMMARY...The severe storm threat will likely increase over the next several hours, with potential for damaging winds and brief tornadoes. Additional parts of northern Texas may need a watch later this morning. DISCUSSION...A line of storms exists along a developing cold front, from central OK across northwest TX and into west-central TX. The line of storms has not been particularly strong over OK, however, the fast-approaching speed max aloft, along with midlevel cooling, is expected to ramp up severe potential across the region over the next several hours. Additional cells are already developing ahead of the line over western parts of North TX, within the warm advection zone where lower 60s F dewpoints are streaming north. Pressure falls continue as well across the area, with 1-2 mb/hr. Recent radar trends suggest the leading midlevel vort is now moving into the San Angelo area with intensifying line of storms. This feature/wave should then proceed northeastward along the front, with various bows producing damaging gusts likely. A few brief tornadoes may also occur, as low level shear is quite strong with 0-1 SRH of 200-300 m2/s2. ..Jewell/Smith.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 32459977 33919863 34599793 34669762 34809716 34709684 34479654 33889660 32979713 32099807 31559899 31559999 31800020 32459977 Read more

WW 0018 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0018 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0018 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0018 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more