SPC Mar 4, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery continues to depict a maturing cyclone across the central/southern Plains with an embedded shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery across TX. This shortwave trough is accompanied by a strong jet streak characterized by 100+ kt at 500 mb. This shortwave and associated jet streak are forecast to continue eastward through the Lower MS Valley during the day before curving cyclonically overnight across the TN Valley. The strong mid/upper flow will persist during this period, spreading across the Lower MS Valley this afternoon and Southeast/TN Valley this evening and overnight. This overall evolution will also help to induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper trough throughout the day, contributing to notable height falls across the Lower MS Valley. At the surface, the primary low associated with this system is currently over central KS, while a second, triple-point low was observed farther southeast over the Arklatex vicinity. A strong cold front extends from this second low, extending back southwestward into south TX. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are currently ongoing along and just ahead of this cold front, and the expectation is for these storms to continue throughout the day as the front progresses quickly eastward. The warm sector ahead of this line is currently fairly narrow, with the warm front currently analyzed approximately along the 58 deg F isodrosotherm from the low southeastward through central LA. General expectation is for thunderstorms to continue along the front for the next several hours. There may be a trend towards stronger storms developing along the southern portion of the convective line (i.e. central LA southward/southeastward) given the narrowness of the warm sector and limited buoyancy currently downstream across northern LA and southern AR. ...East TX across the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Influence of the more continental airmass remains in place farther downstream across the Southeast, but this is expected to change amid strong mass response ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. General expectation is that low 60s dewpoints will reach the AR/LA/MS border vicinity by the early afternoon, with mid 60s dewpoints farther south across southwest MS and southeast LA. The warm sector should gradually become wider as well, with 60s dewpoints likely across southeast MS and most of southern AL by later this evening. Given the presence of intense kinematic fields across the entire region, the advection and extent of these dewpoints will be key for delineating the greatest severe potential this afternoon and evening. A linear mode will likely be maintained throughout the period, with some intensification expected as downstream destabilization increases. Low-level wind fields are more than sufficient for embedded QLCS tornadoes as well as strong gusts. Potential remains for more discrete storm development ahead of the line, although the coverage of these storms could be mitigated by modest but persistent convective inhibition. Duration of any discrete storms could also be limited by the fast progression of the cold front. However, given the very favorable kinematic fields, quick storm maturation is possible, and the potential for strong tornadoes still exists, particularly across the Lower MS Valley. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will remain the primary severe hazards. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. ..Mosier/Supinie.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 4, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery continues to depict a maturing cyclone across the central/southern Plains with an embedded shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery across TX. This shortwave trough is accompanied by a strong jet streak characterized by 100+ kt at 500 mb. This shortwave and associated jet streak are forecast to continue eastward through the Lower MS Valley during the day before curving cyclonically overnight across the TN Valley. The strong mid/upper flow will persist during this period, spreading across the Lower MS Valley this afternoon and Southeast/TN Valley this evening and overnight. This overall evolution will also help to induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper trough throughout the day, contributing to notable height falls across the Lower MS Valley. At the surface, the primary low associated with this system is currently over central KS, while a second, triple-point low was observed farther southeast over the Arklatex vicinity. A strong cold front extends from this second low, extending back southwestward into south TX. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are currently ongoing along and just ahead of this cold front, and the expectation is for these storms to continue throughout the day as the front progresses quickly eastward. The warm sector ahead of this line is currently fairly narrow, with the warm front currently analyzed approximately along the 58 deg F isodrosotherm from the low southeastward through central LA. General expectation is for thunderstorms to continue along the front for the next several hours. There may be a trend towards stronger storms developing along the southern portion of the convective line (i.e. central LA southward/southeastward) given the narrowness of the warm sector and limited buoyancy currently downstream across northern LA and southern AR. ...East TX across the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Influence of the more continental airmass remains in place farther downstream across the Southeast, but this is expected to change amid strong mass response ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. General expectation is that low 60s dewpoints will reach the AR/LA/MS border vicinity by the early afternoon, with mid 60s dewpoints farther south across southwest MS and southeast LA. The warm sector should gradually become wider as well, with 60s dewpoints likely across southeast MS and most of southern AL by later this evening. Given the presence of intense kinematic fields across the entire region, the advection and extent of these dewpoints will be key for delineating the greatest severe potential this afternoon and evening. A linear mode will likely be maintained throughout the period, with some intensification expected as downstream destabilization increases. Low-level wind fields are more than sufficient for embedded QLCS tornadoes as well as strong gusts. Potential remains for more discrete storm development ahead of the line, although the coverage of these storms could be mitigated by modest but persistent convective inhibition. Duration of any discrete storms could also be limited by the fast progression of the cold front. However, given the very favorable kinematic fields, quick storm maturation is possible, and the potential for strong tornadoes still exists, particularly across the Lower MS Valley. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will remain the primary severe hazards. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. ..Mosier/Supinie.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 4, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery continues to depict a maturing cyclone across the central/southern Plains with an embedded shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery across TX. This shortwave trough is accompanied by a strong jet streak characterized by 100+ kt at 500 mb. This shortwave and associated jet streak are forecast to continue eastward through the Lower MS Valley during the day before curving cyclonically overnight across the TN Valley. The strong mid/upper flow will persist during this period, spreading across the Lower MS Valley this afternoon and Southeast/TN Valley this evening and overnight. This overall evolution will also help to induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper trough throughout the day, contributing to notable height falls across the Lower MS Valley. At the surface, the primary low associated with this system is currently over central KS, while a second, triple-point low was observed farther southeast over the Arklatex vicinity. A strong cold front extends from this second low, extending back southwestward into south TX. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are currently ongoing along and just ahead of this cold front, and the expectation is for these storms to continue throughout the day as the front progresses quickly eastward. The warm sector ahead of this line is currently fairly narrow, with the warm front currently analyzed approximately along the 58 deg F isodrosotherm from the low southeastward through central LA. General expectation is for thunderstorms to continue along the front for the next several hours. There may be a trend towards stronger storms developing along the southern portion of the convective line (i.e. central LA southward/southeastward) given the narrowness of the warm sector and limited buoyancy currently downstream across northern LA and southern AR. ...East TX across the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Influence of the more continental airmass remains in place farther downstream across the Southeast, but this is expected to change amid strong mass response ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. General expectation is that low 60s dewpoints will reach the AR/LA/MS border vicinity by the early afternoon, with mid 60s dewpoints farther south across southwest MS and southeast LA. The warm sector should gradually become wider as well, with 60s dewpoints likely across southeast MS and most of southern AL by later this evening. Given the presence of intense kinematic fields across the entire region, the advection and extent of these dewpoints will be key for delineating the greatest severe potential this afternoon and evening. A linear mode will likely be maintained throughout the period, with some intensification expected as downstream destabilization increases. Low-level wind fields are more than sufficient for embedded QLCS tornadoes as well as strong gusts. Potential remains for more discrete storm development ahead of the line, although the coverage of these storms could be mitigated by modest but persistent convective inhibition. Duration of any discrete storms could also be limited by the fast progression of the cold front. However, given the very favorable kinematic fields, quick storm maturation is possible, and the potential for strong tornadoes still exists, particularly across the Lower MS Valley. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will remain the primary severe hazards. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. ..Mosier/Supinie.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 4, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery continues to depict a maturing cyclone across the central/southern Plains with an embedded shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery across TX. This shortwave trough is accompanied by a strong jet streak characterized by 100+ kt at 500 mb. This shortwave and associated jet streak are forecast to continue eastward through the Lower MS Valley during the day before curving cyclonically overnight across the TN Valley. The strong mid/upper flow will persist during this period, spreading across the Lower MS Valley this afternoon and Southeast/TN Valley this evening and overnight. This overall evolution will also help to induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper trough throughout the day, contributing to notable height falls across the Lower MS Valley. At the surface, the primary low associated with this system is currently over central KS, while a second, triple-point low was observed farther southeast over the Arklatex vicinity. A strong cold front extends from this second low, extending back southwestward into south TX. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are currently ongoing along and just ahead of this cold front, and the expectation is for these storms to continue throughout the day as the front progresses quickly eastward. The warm sector ahead of this line is currently fairly narrow, with the warm front currently analyzed approximately along the 58 deg F isodrosotherm from the low southeastward through central LA. General expectation is for thunderstorms to continue along the front for the next several hours. There may be a trend towards stronger storms developing along the southern portion of the convective line (i.e. central LA southward/southeastward) given the narrowness of the warm sector and limited buoyancy currently downstream across northern LA and southern AR. ...East TX across the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Influence of the more continental airmass remains in place farther downstream across the Southeast, but this is expected to change amid strong mass response ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. General expectation is that low 60s dewpoints will reach the AR/LA/MS border vicinity by the early afternoon, with mid 60s dewpoints farther south across southwest MS and southeast LA. The warm sector should gradually become wider as well, with 60s dewpoints likely across southeast MS and most of southern AL by later this evening. Given the presence of intense kinematic fields across the entire region, the advection and extent of these dewpoints will be key for delineating the greatest severe potential this afternoon and evening. A linear mode will likely be maintained throughout the period, with some intensification expected as downstream destabilization increases. Low-level wind fields are more than sufficient for embedded QLCS tornadoes as well as strong gusts. Potential remains for more discrete storm development ahead of the line, although the coverage of these storms could be mitigated by modest but persistent convective inhibition. Duration of any discrete storms could also be limited by the fast progression of the cold front. However, given the very favorable kinematic fields, quick storm maturation is possible, and the potential for strong tornadoes still exists, particularly across the Lower MS Valley. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will remain the primary severe hazards. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. ..Mosier/Supinie.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 4, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery continues to depict a maturing cyclone across the central/southern Plains with an embedded shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery across TX. This shortwave trough is accompanied by a strong jet streak characterized by 100+ kt at 500 mb. This shortwave and associated jet streak are forecast to continue eastward through the Lower MS Valley during the day before curving cyclonically overnight across the TN Valley. The strong mid/upper flow will persist during this period, spreading across the Lower MS Valley this afternoon and Southeast/TN Valley this evening and overnight. This overall evolution will also help to induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper trough throughout the day, contributing to notable height falls across the Lower MS Valley. At the surface, the primary low associated with this system is currently over central KS, while a second, triple-point low was observed farther southeast over the Arklatex vicinity. A strong cold front extends from this second low, extending back southwestward into south TX. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are currently ongoing along and just ahead of this cold front, and the expectation is for these storms to continue throughout the day as the front progresses quickly eastward. The warm sector ahead of this line is currently fairly narrow, with the warm front currently analyzed approximately along the 58 deg F isodrosotherm from the low southeastward through central LA. General expectation is for thunderstorms to continue along the front for the next several hours. There may be a trend towards stronger storms developing along the southern portion of the convective line (i.e. central LA southward/southeastward) given the narrowness of the warm sector and limited buoyancy currently downstream across northern LA and southern AR. ...East TX across the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Influence of the more continental airmass remains in place farther downstream across the Southeast, but this is expected to change amid strong mass response ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. General expectation is that low 60s dewpoints will reach the AR/LA/MS border vicinity by the early afternoon, with mid 60s dewpoints farther south across southwest MS and southeast LA. The warm sector should gradually become wider as well, with 60s dewpoints likely across southeast MS and most of southern AL by later this evening. Given the presence of intense kinematic fields across the entire region, the advection and extent of these dewpoints will be key for delineating the greatest severe potential this afternoon and evening. A linear mode will likely be maintained throughout the period, with some intensification expected as downstream destabilization increases. Low-level wind fields are more than sufficient for embedded QLCS tornadoes as well as strong gusts. Potential remains for more discrete storm development ahead of the line, although the coverage of these storms could be mitigated by modest but persistent convective inhibition. Duration of any discrete storms could also be limited by the fast progression of the cold front. However, given the very favorable kinematic fields, quick storm maturation is possible, and the potential for strong tornadoes still exists, particularly across the Lower MS Valley. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will remain the primary severe hazards. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. ..Mosier/Supinie.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 4, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery continues to depict a maturing cyclone across the central/southern Plains with an embedded shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery across TX. This shortwave trough is accompanied by a strong jet streak characterized by 100+ kt at 500 mb. This shortwave and associated jet streak are forecast to continue eastward through the Lower MS Valley during the day before curving cyclonically overnight across the TN Valley. The strong mid/upper flow will persist during this period, spreading across the Lower MS Valley this afternoon and Southeast/TN Valley this evening and overnight. This overall evolution will also help to induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper trough throughout the day, contributing to notable height falls across the Lower MS Valley. At the surface, the primary low associated with this system is currently over central KS, while a second, triple-point low was observed farther southeast over the Arklatex vicinity. A strong cold front extends from this second low, extending back southwestward into south TX. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are currently ongoing along and just ahead of this cold front, and the expectation is for these storms to continue throughout the day as the front progresses quickly eastward. The warm sector ahead of this line is currently fairly narrow, with the warm front currently analyzed approximately along the 58 deg F isodrosotherm from the low southeastward through central LA. General expectation is for thunderstorms to continue along the front for the next several hours. There may be a trend towards stronger storms developing along the southern portion of the convective line (i.e. central LA southward/southeastward) given the narrowness of the warm sector and limited buoyancy currently downstream across northern LA and southern AR. ...East TX across the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Influence of the more continental airmass remains in place farther downstream across the Southeast, but this is expected to change amid strong mass response ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. General expectation is that low 60s dewpoints will reach the AR/LA/MS border vicinity by the early afternoon, with mid 60s dewpoints farther south across southwest MS and southeast LA. The warm sector should gradually become wider as well, with 60s dewpoints likely across southeast MS and most of southern AL by later this evening. Given the presence of intense kinematic fields across the entire region, the advection and extent of these dewpoints will be key for delineating the greatest severe potential this afternoon and evening. A linear mode will likely be maintained throughout the period, with some intensification expected as downstream destabilization increases. Low-level wind fields are more than sufficient for embedded QLCS tornadoes as well as strong gusts. Potential remains for more discrete storm development ahead of the line, although the coverage of these storms could be mitigated by modest but persistent convective inhibition. Duration of any discrete storms could also be limited by the fast progression of the cold front. However, given the very favorable kinematic fields, quick storm maturation is possible, and the potential for strong tornadoes still exists, particularly across the Lower MS Valley. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will remain the primary severe hazards. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. ..Mosier/Supinie.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 4, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery continues to depict a maturing cyclone across the central/southern Plains with an embedded shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery across TX. This shortwave trough is accompanied by a strong jet streak characterized by 100+ kt at 500 mb. This shortwave and associated jet streak are forecast to continue eastward through the Lower MS Valley during the day before curving cyclonically overnight across the TN Valley. The strong mid/upper flow will persist during this period, spreading across the Lower MS Valley this afternoon and Southeast/TN Valley this evening and overnight. This overall evolution will also help to induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper trough throughout the day, contributing to notable height falls across the Lower MS Valley. At the surface, the primary low associated with this system is currently over central KS, while a second, triple-point low was observed farther southeast over the Arklatex vicinity. A strong cold front extends from this second low, extending back southwestward into south TX. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are currently ongoing along and just ahead of this cold front, and the expectation is for these storms to continue throughout the day as the front progresses quickly eastward. The warm sector ahead of this line is currently fairly narrow, with the warm front currently analyzed approximately along the 58 deg F isodrosotherm from the low southeastward through central LA. General expectation is for thunderstorms to continue along the front for the next several hours. There may be a trend towards stronger storms developing along the southern portion of the convective line (i.e. central LA southward/southeastward) given the narrowness of the warm sector and limited buoyancy currently downstream across northern LA and southern AR. ...East TX across the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Influence of the more continental airmass remains in place farther downstream across the Southeast, but this is expected to change amid strong mass response ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. General expectation is that low 60s dewpoints will reach the AR/LA/MS border vicinity by the early afternoon, with mid 60s dewpoints farther south across southwest MS and southeast LA. The warm sector should gradually become wider as well, with 60s dewpoints likely across southeast MS and most of southern AL by later this evening. Given the presence of intense kinematic fields across the entire region, the advection and extent of these dewpoints will be key for delineating the greatest severe potential this afternoon and evening. A linear mode will likely be maintained throughout the period, with some intensification expected as downstream destabilization increases. Low-level wind fields are more than sufficient for embedded QLCS tornadoes as well as strong gusts. Potential remains for more discrete storm development ahead of the line, although the coverage of these storms could be mitigated by modest but persistent convective inhibition. Duration of any discrete storms could also be limited by the fast progression of the cold front. However, given the very favorable kinematic fields, quick storm maturation is possible, and the potential for strong tornadoes still exists, particularly across the Lower MS Valley. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will remain the primary severe hazards. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. ..Mosier/Supinie.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 4, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery continues to depict a maturing cyclone across the central/southern Plains with an embedded shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery across TX. This shortwave trough is accompanied by a strong jet streak characterized by 100+ kt at 500 mb. This shortwave and associated jet streak are forecast to continue eastward through the Lower MS Valley during the day before curving cyclonically overnight across the TN Valley. The strong mid/upper flow will persist during this period, spreading across the Lower MS Valley this afternoon and Southeast/TN Valley this evening and overnight. This overall evolution will also help to induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper trough throughout the day, contributing to notable height falls across the Lower MS Valley. At the surface, the primary low associated with this system is currently over central KS, while a second, triple-point low was observed farther southeast over the Arklatex vicinity. A strong cold front extends from this second low, extending back southwestward into south TX. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are currently ongoing along and just ahead of this cold front, and the expectation is for these storms to continue throughout the day as the front progresses quickly eastward. The warm sector ahead of this line is currently fairly narrow, with the warm front currently analyzed approximately along the 58 deg F isodrosotherm from the low southeastward through central LA. General expectation is for thunderstorms to continue along the front for the next several hours. There may be a trend towards stronger storms developing along the southern portion of the convective line (i.e. central LA southward/southeastward) given the narrowness of the warm sector and limited buoyancy currently downstream across northern LA and southern AR. ...East TX across the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Influence of the more continental airmass remains in place farther downstream across the Southeast, but this is expected to change amid strong mass response ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. General expectation is that low 60s dewpoints will reach the AR/LA/MS border vicinity by the early afternoon, with mid 60s dewpoints farther south across southwest MS and southeast LA. The warm sector should gradually become wider as well, with 60s dewpoints likely across southeast MS and most of southern AL by later this evening. Given the presence of intense kinematic fields across the entire region, the advection and extent of these dewpoints will be key for delineating the greatest severe potential this afternoon and evening. A linear mode will likely be maintained throughout the period, with some intensification expected as downstream destabilization increases. Low-level wind fields are more than sufficient for embedded QLCS tornadoes as well as strong gusts. Potential remains for more discrete storm development ahead of the line, although the coverage of these storms could be mitigated by modest but persistent convective inhibition. Duration of any discrete storms could also be limited by the fast progression of the cold front. However, given the very favorable kinematic fields, quick storm maturation is possible, and the potential for strong tornadoes still exists, particularly across the Lower MS Valley. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will remain the primary severe hazards. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. ..Mosier/Supinie.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 4, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery continues to depict a maturing cyclone across the central/southern Plains with an embedded shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery across TX. This shortwave trough is accompanied by a strong jet streak characterized by 100+ kt at 500 mb. This shortwave and associated jet streak are forecast to continue eastward through the Lower MS Valley during the day before curving cyclonically overnight across the TN Valley. The strong mid/upper flow will persist during this period, spreading across the Lower MS Valley this afternoon and Southeast/TN Valley this evening and overnight. This overall evolution will also help to induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper trough throughout the day, contributing to notable height falls across the Lower MS Valley. At the surface, the primary low associated with this system is currently over central KS, while a second, triple-point low was observed farther southeast over the Arklatex vicinity. A strong cold front extends from this second low, extending back southwestward into south TX. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are currently ongoing along and just ahead of this cold front, and the expectation is for these storms to continue throughout the day as the front progresses quickly eastward. The warm sector ahead of this line is currently fairly narrow, with the warm front currently analyzed approximately along the 58 deg F isodrosotherm from the low southeastward through central LA. General expectation is for thunderstorms to continue along the front for the next several hours. There may be a trend towards stronger storms developing along the southern portion of the convective line (i.e. central LA southward/southeastward) given the narrowness of the warm sector and limited buoyancy currently downstream across northern LA and southern AR. ...East TX across the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Influence of the more continental airmass remains in place farther downstream across the Southeast, but this is expected to change amid strong mass response ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. General expectation is that low 60s dewpoints will reach the AR/LA/MS border vicinity by the early afternoon, with mid 60s dewpoints farther south across southwest MS and southeast LA. The warm sector should gradually become wider as well, with 60s dewpoints likely across southeast MS and most of southern AL by later this evening. Given the presence of intense kinematic fields across the entire region, the advection and extent of these dewpoints will be key for delineating the greatest severe potential this afternoon and evening. A linear mode will likely be maintained throughout the period, with some intensification expected as downstream destabilization increases. Low-level wind fields are more than sufficient for embedded QLCS tornadoes as well as strong gusts. Potential remains for more discrete storm development ahead of the line, although the coverage of these storms could be mitigated by modest but persistent convective inhibition. Duration of any discrete storms could also be limited by the fast progression of the cold front. However, given the very favorable kinematic fields, quick storm maturation is possible, and the potential for strong tornadoes still exists, particularly across the Lower MS Valley. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will remain the primary severe hazards. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. ..Mosier/Supinie.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 4, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... Recent satellite imagery continues to depict a maturing cyclone across the central/southern Plains with an embedded shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery across TX. This shortwave trough is accompanied by a strong jet streak characterized by 100+ kt at 500 mb. This shortwave and associated jet streak are forecast to continue eastward through the Lower MS Valley during the day before curving cyclonically overnight across the TN Valley. The strong mid/upper flow will persist during this period, spreading across the Lower MS Valley this afternoon and Southeast/TN Valley this evening and overnight. This overall evolution will also help to induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper trough throughout the day, contributing to notable height falls across the Lower MS Valley. At the surface, the primary low associated with this system is currently over central KS, while a second, triple-point low was observed farther southeast over the Arklatex vicinity. A strong cold front extends from this second low, extending back southwestward into south TX. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are currently ongoing along and just ahead of this cold front, and the expectation is for these storms to continue throughout the day as the front progresses quickly eastward. The warm sector ahead of this line is currently fairly narrow, with the warm front currently analyzed approximately along the 58 deg F isodrosotherm from the low southeastward through central LA. General expectation is for thunderstorms to continue along the front for the next several hours. There may be a trend towards stronger storms developing along the southern portion of the convective line (i.e. central LA southward/southeastward) given the narrowness of the warm sector and limited buoyancy currently downstream across northern LA and southern AR. ...East TX across the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Influence of the more continental airmass remains in place farther downstream across the Southeast, but this is expected to change amid strong mass response ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. General expectation is that low 60s dewpoints will reach the AR/LA/MS border vicinity by the early afternoon, with mid 60s dewpoints farther south across southwest MS and southeast LA. The warm sector should gradually become wider as well, with 60s dewpoints likely across southeast MS and most of southern AL by later this evening. Given the presence of intense kinematic fields across the entire region, the advection and extent of these dewpoints will be key for delineating the greatest severe potential this afternoon and evening. A linear mode will likely be maintained throughout the period, with some intensification expected as downstream destabilization increases. Low-level wind fields are more than sufficient for embedded QLCS tornadoes as well as strong gusts. Potential remains for more discrete storm development ahead of the line, although the coverage of these storms could be mitigated by modest but persistent convective inhibition. Duration of any discrete storms could also be limited by the fast progression of the cold front. However, given the very favorable kinematic fields, quick storm maturation is possible, and the potential for strong tornadoes still exists, particularly across the Lower MS Valley. This activity will likely maintain a linear mode tonight as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast states into the TN Valley. A continued risk for damaging gusts and line-embedded tornadoes will remain the primary severe hazards. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. ..Mosier/Supinie.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC MD 131

4 months 2 weeks ago
MD 0131 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 19... FOR ISOLATED WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
Mesoscale Discussion 0131 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0856 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Areas affected...Isolated wind gusts remain possible through this morning. Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 19... Valid 041456Z - 041630Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 19 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated wind gusts remain possible through this morning. DISCUSSION...The intensity of the squall line across northeast Oklahoma has weakened over the past 30 minutes as it moves into an increasingly stable/cool downstream airmass. Some recovery may may continue to occur across northern Arkansas and southern Missouri which may provide just enough instability to maintain the squall line as it continues east. Given the very strong low-level flow, (60 knots at 1km per SRX VWP), some threat for isolated severe wind gusts may continue despite the less intense squall line, particularly in the southern portions of watch 19 where mid-50s dewpoints and slightly greater instability are present. ..Bentley.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA... LAT...LON 35399440 35989455 36439464 36769487 37229476 37409421 37399289 36939260 36299244 35639262 35209322 35169382 35219441 35399440 Read more

SPC MD 130

4 months 2 weeks ago
MD 0130 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR ARKLATEX INTO THE SABINE VALLEY AND VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 0130 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Areas affected...Arklatex into the Sabine Valley and vicinity Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 041349Z - 041545Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A severe wind, and eventually tornado risk exists over the area, ahead of the cold front and near and south of the warm front. A watch may be considered. DISCUSSION...Although a greater threat of severe storms including tornadoes is expected into the afternoon, some severe risk may persist with the ongoing early day activity as a line of storms continues east out of TX and eastern OK. 12Z soundings indicate a capping inversion near 700 mb, by virtue of relatively cool surface conditions near the warm front. However, very strong southerly winds above the surface with the low-level jet, as well as areas of daytime heating will allow for a growing area of concern across the developing warm sector, including much of LA and into MS. In the near term, robust storms persist along the cold front over northeast TX, with a few counties width of warm sector west of the warm front. At least a few hours of severe risk likely remains in this area, prior to expected diurnal maximum, and a watch will likely be needed to address this early threat. ..Jewell/Smith.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX... LAT...LON 31159476 31429509 31829522 32449501 33549478 33809458 33929411 33919374 33819323 33569266 33149227 32349199 31639206 31169219 30919278 30899330 30959413 31159476 Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 19 Status Reports

4 months 2 weeks ago
WW 0019 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 19 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW FSM TO 5 SSE FYV TO 5 NNW HRO TO 20 NW FLP. ..BENTLEY..03/04/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 19 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC033-047-071-083-087-101-131-143-041640- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD FRANKLIN JOHNSON LOGAN MADISON NEWTON SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 19 Status Reports

4 months 2 weeks ago
WW 0019 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 19 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW FSM TO 5 SSE FYV TO 5 NNW HRO TO 20 NW FLP. ..BENTLEY..03/04/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 19 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC033-047-071-083-087-101-131-143-041640- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD FRANKLIN JOHNSON LOGAN MADISON NEWTON SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 19 Status Reports

4 months 2 weeks ago
WW 0019 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 19 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW FSM TO 5 SSE FYV TO 5 NNW HRO TO 20 NW FLP. ..BENTLEY..03/04/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 19 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC033-047-071-083-087-101-131-143-041640- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD FRANKLIN JOHNSON LOGAN MADISON NEWTON SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 19 Status Reports

4 months 2 weeks ago
WW 0019 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 19 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW FSM TO 5 SSE FYV TO 5 NNW HRO TO 20 NW FLP. ..BENTLEY..03/04/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 19 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC033-047-071-083-087-101-131-143-041640- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD FRANKLIN JOHNSON LOGAN MADISON NEWTON SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 19 Status Reports

4 months 2 weeks ago
WW 0019 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 19 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW FSM TO 5 SSE FYV TO 5 NNW HRO TO 20 NW FLP. ..BENTLEY..03/04/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 19 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC033-047-071-083-087-101-131-143-041640- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD FRANKLIN JOHNSON LOGAN MADISON NEWTON SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 19 Status Reports

4 months 2 weeks ago
WW 0019 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 19 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW FSM TO 5 SSE FYV TO 5 NNW HRO TO 20 NW FLP. ..BENTLEY..03/04/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 19 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC033-047-071-083-087-101-131-143-041640- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD FRANKLIN JOHNSON LOGAN MADISON NEWTON SEBASTIAN WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 19

4 months 2 weeks ago
WW 19 SEVERE TSTM AR MO OK 041245Z - 041700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 19 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 645 AM CST Tue Mar 4 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Arkansas Southwest Missouri Far Northeast Oklahoma * Effective this Tuesday morning from 645 AM until 1100 AM CST. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A severe squall line will continue northeast into the Watch area, and likely pose a risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph) and perhaps a threat for a brief tornado, with the more intense portions of the line. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles north northwest of Muskogee OK to 20 miles northeast of Harrison AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 18... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 350. Mean storm motion vector 23040. ...Smith Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 20 Status Reports

4 months 2 weeks ago
WW 0020 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 20 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE UTS TO 30 SE GGG TO 35 SSE TXK TO 45 SW HOT TO 35 WNW HOT. ..BENTLEY..03/04/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 20 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-003-011-013-017-019-025-027-039-041-043-053-057-059-069- 073-079-097-099-103-109-139-041640- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY CALHOUN CHICOT CLARK CLEVELAND COLUMBIA DALLAS DESHA DREW GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LINCOLN MONTGOMERY NEVADA OUACHITA PIKE UNION LAC003-011-013-015-017-021-027-031-039-043-049-059-061-067-069- 073-079-081-083-085-111-115-119-123-127-041640- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BEAUREGARD BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CALDWELL CLAIBORNE DE SOTO EVANGELINE Read more