Aggregator

WW 0017 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 17 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE JCT TO 40 WSW BWD TO 40 E ABI TO 40 NW MWL TO 35 S SPS TO 35 SE SPS TO 30 E SPS TO 25 ESE CHK TO 25 ENE CQB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0127 ..JEWELL..03/04/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 17 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC019-027-049-067-069-085-087-095-099-123-125-133-137-041140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CLEVELAND GARVIN JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LOVE MCCLAIN MARSHALL MURRAY PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE STEPHENS TXC049-077-083-097-133-237-337-363-429-503-041140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CLAY COLEMAN COOKE EASTLAND JACK MONTAGUE PALO PINTO STEPHENS YOUNG Read more

WW 0017 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 17 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE JCT TO 40 WSW BWD TO 40 E ABI TO 40 NW MWL TO 35 S SPS TO 35 SE SPS TO 30 E SPS TO 25 ESE CHK TO 25 ENE CQB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0127 ..JEWELL..03/04/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 17 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC019-027-049-067-069-085-087-095-099-123-125-133-137-041140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CLEVELAND GARVIN JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LOVE MCCLAIN MARSHALL MURRAY PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE STEPHENS TXC049-077-083-097-133-237-337-363-429-503-041140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CLAY COLEMAN COOKE EASTLAND JACK MONTAGUE PALO PINTO STEPHENS YOUNG Read more

WW 0017 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 17 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE JCT TO 40 WSW BWD TO 40 E ABI TO 40 NW MWL TO 35 S SPS TO 35 SE SPS TO 30 E SPS TO 25 ESE CHK TO 25 ENE CQB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0127 ..JEWELL..03/04/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 17 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC019-027-049-067-069-085-087-095-099-123-125-133-137-041140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CLEVELAND GARVIN JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LOVE MCCLAIN MARSHALL MURRAY PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE STEPHENS TXC049-077-083-097-133-237-337-363-429-503-041140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CLAY COLEMAN COOKE EASTLAND JACK MONTAGUE PALO PINTO STEPHENS YOUNG Read more

WW 0017 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 17 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE JCT TO 40 WSW BWD TO 40 E ABI TO 40 NW MWL TO 35 S SPS TO 35 SE SPS TO 30 E SPS TO 25 ESE CHK TO 25 ENE CQB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0127 ..JEWELL..03/04/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 17 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC019-027-049-067-069-085-087-095-099-123-125-133-137-041140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CLEVELAND GARVIN JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LOVE MCCLAIN MARSHALL MURRAY PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE STEPHENS TXC049-077-083-097-133-237-337-363-429-503-041140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CLAY COLEMAN COOKE EASTLAND JACK MONTAGUE PALO PINTO STEPHENS YOUNG Read more

WW 0017 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 17 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE JCT TO 40 WSW BWD TO 40 E ABI TO 40 NW MWL TO 35 S SPS TO 35 SE SPS TO 30 E SPS TO 25 ESE CHK TO 25 ENE CQB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0127 ..JEWELL..03/04/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 17 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC019-027-049-067-069-085-087-095-099-123-125-133-137-041140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CLEVELAND GARVIN JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LOVE MCCLAIN MARSHALL MURRAY PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE STEPHENS TXC049-077-083-097-133-237-337-363-429-503-041140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CLAY COLEMAN COOKE EASTLAND JACK MONTAGUE PALO PINTO STEPHENS YOUNG Read more

WW 0017 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 17 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE JCT TO 40 WSW BWD TO 40 E ABI TO 40 NW MWL TO 35 S SPS TO 35 SE SPS TO 30 E SPS TO 25 ESE CHK TO 25 ENE CQB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0127 ..JEWELL..03/04/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 17 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC019-027-049-067-069-085-087-095-099-123-125-133-137-041140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CLEVELAND GARVIN JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LOVE MCCLAIN MARSHALL MURRAY PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE STEPHENS TXC049-077-083-097-133-237-337-363-429-503-041140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CLAY COLEMAN COOKE EASTLAND JACK MONTAGUE PALO PINTO STEPHENS YOUNG Read more

WW 17 TORNADO OK TX 040335Z - 041100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 17 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 935 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western and Central Oklahoma Western North Texas * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 935 PM until 500 AM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to develop and increase initially across western Oklahoma into western North Texas, with tornado potential expected to increase late this evening into the overnight, with a damaging wind and hail risk as well. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles east northeast of Alva OK to 30 miles southwest of Brownwood TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 16... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Guyer Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... In the wake of renewed cyclogenesis across and north of the Canadian Maritimes, it appears that a broad area of lower mid-level heights will linger across the Great Lakes and Northeast late this week through the coming weekend. This may contribute to the maintenance of a confluent mid-level regime to the east of the Rockies, as much of the western and southern U.S. remains under the influence of one prominent belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific. One embedded short wave trough digging into the Southwest with an evolving mid-level low by early Friday is forecast to progress across the southern Rockies by 12Z Saturday. Subsequent development across and east of the southern Great Plains over the weekend into early next week remains much more unclear. ECENS/ECMWF-based guidance suggests that this feature emerges as an increasingly sheared perturbation across the southern tier, supportive of only low amplitude frontal wave development, until progressing across and east of the south Atlantic Seaboard. GEFS/GFS-based guidance forecasts similar shearing across the southern Great Plains, before phasing with an amplifying wave within the cyclonic regime initially confined to the Great Lakes vicinity. This would probably be accompanied by more substantive cyclogenesis, with a moistening and destabilizing warm sector which could become supportive of organized severe weather potential. Thereafter, through the early to middle portion of next week, models indicate that, as the persistent area of lower mid-level heights retreats to the north and east, mid/upper flow may become more supportive of strong cyclogenesis across Nebraska into the mid/lower Missouri Valley by late next Tuesday night. However, it appears that this will occur before the boundary-layer over the northwestern Gulf recovers sufficiently to support a substantive moist return flow. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... In the wake of renewed cyclogenesis across and north of the Canadian Maritimes, it appears that a broad area of lower mid-level heights will linger across the Great Lakes and Northeast late this week through the coming weekend. This may contribute to the maintenance of a confluent mid-level regime to the east of the Rockies, as much of the western and southern U.S. remains under the influence of one prominent belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific. One embedded short wave trough digging into the Southwest with an evolving mid-level low by early Friday is forecast to progress across the southern Rockies by 12Z Saturday. Subsequent development across and east of the southern Great Plains over the weekend into early next week remains much more unclear. ECENS/ECMWF-based guidance suggests that this feature emerges as an increasingly sheared perturbation across the southern tier, supportive of only low amplitude frontal wave development, until progressing across and east of the south Atlantic Seaboard. GEFS/GFS-based guidance forecasts similar shearing across the southern Great Plains, before phasing with an amplifying wave within the cyclonic regime initially confined to the Great Lakes vicinity. This would probably be accompanied by more substantive cyclogenesis, with a moistening and destabilizing warm sector which could become supportive of organized severe weather potential. Thereafter, through the early to middle portion of next week, models indicate that, as the persistent area of lower mid-level heights retreats to the north and east, mid/upper flow may become more supportive of strong cyclogenesis across Nebraska into the mid/lower Missouri Valley by late next Tuesday night. However, it appears that this will occur before the boundary-layer over the northwestern Gulf recovers sufficiently to support a substantive moist return flow. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... In the wake of renewed cyclogenesis across and north of the Canadian Maritimes, it appears that a broad area of lower mid-level heights will linger across the Great Lakes and Northeast late this week through the coming weekend. This may contribute to the maintenance of a confluent mid-level regime to the east of the Rockies, as much of the western and southern U.S. remains under the influence of one prominent belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific. One embedded short wave trough digging into the Southwest with an evolving mid-level low by early Friday is forecast to progress across the southern Rockies by 12Z Saturday. Subsequent development across and east of the southern Great Plains over the weekend into early next week remains much more unclear. ECENS/ECMWF-based guidance suggests that this feature emerges as an increasingly sheared perturbation across the southern tier, supportive of only low amplitude frontal wave development, until progressing across and east of the south Atlantic Seaboard. GEFS/GFS-based guidance forecasts similar shearing across the southern Great Plains, before phasing with an amplifying wave within the cyclonic regime initially confined to the Great Lakes vicinity. This would probably be accompanied by more substantive cyclogenesis, with a moistening and destabilizing warm sector which could become supportive of organized severe weather potential. Thereafter, through the early to middle portion of next week, models indicate that, as the persistent area of lower mid-level heights retreats to the north and east, mid/upper flow may become more supportive of strong cyclogenesis across Nebraska into the mid/lower Missouri Valley by late next Tuesday night. However, it appears that this will occur before the boundary-layer over the northwestern Gulf recovers sufficiently to support a substantive moist return flow. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... In the wake of renewed cyclogenesis across and north of the Canadian Maritimes, it appears that a broad area of lower mid-level heights will linger across the Great Lakes and Northeast late this week through the coming weekend. This may contribute to the maintenance of a confluent mid-level regime to the east of the Rockies, as much of the western and southern U.S. remains under the influence of one prominent belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific. One embedded short wave trough digging into the Southwest with an evolving mid-level low by early Friday is forecast to progress across the southern Rockies by 12Z Saturday. Subsequent development across and east of the southern Great Plains over the weekend into early next week remains much more unclear. ECENS/ECMWF-based guidance suggests that this feature emerges as an increasingly sheared perturbation across the southern tier, supportive of only low amplitude frontal wave development, until progressing across and east of the south Atlantic Seaboard. GEFS/GFS-based guidance forecasts similar shearing across the southern Great Plains, before phasing with an amplifying wave within the cyclonic regime initially confined to the Great Lakes vicinity. This would probably be accompanied by more substantive cyclogenesis, with a moistening and destabilizing warm sector which could become supportive of organized severe weather potential. Thereafter, through the early to middle portion of next week, models indicate that, as the persistent area of lower mid-level heights retreats to the north and east, mid/upper flow may become more supportive of strong cyclogenesis across Nebraska into the mid/lower Missouri Valley by late next Tuesday night. However, it appears that this will occur before the boundary-layer over the northwestern Gulf recovers sufficiently to support a substantive moist return flow. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... In the wake of renewed cyclogenesis across and north of the Canadian Maritimes, it appears that a broad area of lower mid-level heights will linger across the Great Lakes and Northeast late this week through the coming weekend. This may contribute to the maintenance of a confluent mid-level regime to the east of the Rockies, as much of the western and southern U.S. remains under the influence of one prominent belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific. One embedded short wave trough digging into the Southwest with an evolving mid-level low by early Friday is forecast to progress across the southern Rockies by 12Z Saturday. Subsequent development across and east of the southern Great Plains over the weekend into early next week remains much more unclear. ECENS/ECMWF-based guidance suggests that this feature emerges as an increasingly sheared perturbation across the southern tier, supportive of only low amplitude frontal wave development, until progressing across and east of the south Atlantic Seaboard. GEFS/GFS-based guidance forecasts similar shearing across the southern Great Plains, before phasing with an amplifying wave within the cyclonic regime initially confined to the Great Lakes vicinity. This would probably be accompanied by more substantive cyclogenesis, with a moistening and destabilizing warm sector which could become supportive of organized severe weather potential. Thereafter, through the early to middle portion of next week, models indicate that, as the persistent area of lower mid-level heights retreats to the north and east, mid/upper flow may become more supportive of strong cyclogenesis across Nebraska into the mid/lower Missouri Valley by late next Tuesday night. However, it appears that this will occur before the boundary-layer over the northwestern Gulf recovers sufficiently to support a substantive moist return flow. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... In the wake of renewed cyclogenesis across and north of the Canadian Maritimes, it appears that a broad area of lower mid-level heights will linger across the Great Lakes and Northeast late this week through the coming weekend. This may contribute to the maintenance of a confluent mid-level regime to the east of the Rockies, as much of the western and southern U.S. remains under the influence of one prominent belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific. One embedded short wave trough digging into the Southwest with an evolving mid-level low by early Friday is forecast to progress across the southern Rockies by 12Z Saturday. Subsequent development across and east of the southern Great Plains over the weekend into early next week remains much more unclear. ECENS/ECMWF-based guidance suggests that this feature emerges as an increasingly sheared perturbation across the southern tier, supportive of only low amplitude frontal wave development, until progressing across and east of the south Atlantic Seaboard. GEFS/GFS-based guidance forecasts similar shearing across the southern Great Plains, before phasing with an amplifying wave within the cyclonic regime initially confined to the Great Lakes vicinity. This would probably be accompanied by more substantive cyclogenesis, with a moistening and destabilizing warm sector which could become supportive of organized severe weather potential. Thereafter, through the early to middle portion of next week, models indicate that, as the persistent area of lower mid-level heights retreats to the north and east, mid/upper flow may become more supportive of strong cyclogenesis across Nebraska into the mid/lower Missouri Valley by late next Tuesday night. However, it appears that this will occur before the boundary-layer over the northwestern Gulf recovers sufficiently to support a substantive moist return flow. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... In the wake of renewed cyclogenesis across and north of the Canadian Maritimes, it appears that a broad area of lower mid-level heights will linger across the Great Lakes and Northeast late this week through the coming weekend. This may contribute to the maintenance of a confluent mid-level regime to the east of the Rockies, as much of the western and southern U.S. remains under the influence of one prominent belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific. One embedded short wave trough digging into the Southwest with an evolving mid-level low by early Friday is forecast to progress across the southern Rockies by 12Z Saturday. Subsequent development across and east of the southern Great Plains over the weekend into early next week remains much more unclear. ECENS/ECMWF-based guidance suggests that this feature emerges as an increasingly sheared perturbation across the southern tier, supportive of only low amplitude frontal wave development, until progressing across and east of the south Atlantic Seaboard. GEFS/GFS-based guidance forecasts similar shearing across the southern Great Plains, before phasing with an amplifying wave within the cyclonic regime initially confined to the Great Lakes vicinity. This would probably be accompanied by more substantive cyclogenesis, with a moistening and destabilizing warm sector which could become supportive of organized severe weather potential. Thereafter, through the early to middle portion of next week, models indicate that, as the persistent area of lower mid-level heights retreats to the north and east, mid/upper flow may become more supportive of strong cyclogenesis across Nebraska into the mid/lower Missouri Valley by late next Tuesday night. However, it appears that this will occur before the boundary-layer over the northwestern Gulf recovers sufficiently to support a substantive moist return flow. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... In the wake of renewed cyclogenesis across and north of the Canadian Maritimes, it appears that a broad area of lower mid-level heights will linger across the Great Lakes and Northeast late this week through the coming weekend. This may contribute to the maintenance of a confluent mid-level regime to the east of the Rockies, as much of the western and southern U.S. remains under the influence of one prominent belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific. One embedded short wave trough digging into the Southwest with an evolving mid-level low by early Friday is forecast to progress across the southern Rockies by 12Z Saturday. Subsequent development across and east of the southern Great Plains over the weekend into early next week remains much more unclear. ECENS/ECMWF-based guidance suggests that this feature emerges as an increasingly sheared perturbation across the southern tier, supportive of only low amplitude frontal wave development, until progressing across and east of the south Atlantic Seaboard. GEFS/GFS-based guidance forecasts similar shearing across the southern Great Plains, before phasing with an amplifying wave within the cyclonic regime initially confined to the Great Lakes vicinity. This would probably be accompanied by more substantive cyclogenesis, with a moistening and destabilizing warm sector which could become supportive of organized severe weather potential. Thereafter, through the early to middle portion of next week, models indicate that, as the persistent area of lower mid-level heights retreats to the north and east, mid/upper flow may become more supportive of strong cyclogenesis across Nebraska into the mid/lower Missouri Valley by late next Tuesday night. However, it appears that this will occur before the boundary-layer over the northwestern Gulf recovers sufficiently to support a substantive moist return flow. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... In the wake of renewed cyclogenesis across and north of the Canadian Maritimes, it appears that a broad area of lower mid-level heights will linger across the Great Lakes and Northeast late this week through the coming weekend. This may contribute to the maintenance of a confluent mid-level regime to the east of the Rockies, as much of the western and southern U.S. remains under the influence of one prominent belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific. One embedded short wave trough digging into the Southwest with an evolving mid-level low by early Friday is forecast to progress across the southern Rockies by 12Z Saturday. Subsequent development across and east of the southern Great Plains over the weekend into early next week remains much more unclear. ECENS/ECMWF-based guidance suggests that this feature emerges as an increasingly sheared perturbation across the southern tier, supportive of only low amplitude frontal wave development, until progressing across and east of the south Atlantic Seaboard. GEFS/GFS-based guidance forecasts similar shearing across the southern Great Plains, before phasing with an amplifying wave within the cyclonic regime initially confined to the Great Lakes vicinity. This would probably be accompanied by more substantive cyclogenesis, with a moistening and destabilizing warm sector which could become supportive of organized severe weather potential. Thereafter, through the early to middle portion of next week, models indicate that, as the persistent area of lower mid-level heights retreats to the north and east, mid/upper flow may become more supportive of strong cyclogenesis across Nebraska into the mid/lower Missouri Valley by late next Tuesday night. However, it appears that this will occur before the boundary-layer over the northwestern Gulf recovers sufficiently to support a substantive moist return flow. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... In the wake of renewed cyclogenesis across and north of the Canadian Maritimes, it appears that a broad area of lower mid-level heights will linger across the Great Lakes and Northeast late this week through the coming weekend. This may contribute to the maintenance of a confluent mid-level regime to the east of the Rockies, as much of the western and southern U.S. remains under the influence of one prominent belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific. One embedded short wave trough digging into the Southwest with an evolving mid-level low by early Friday is forecast to progress across the southern Rockies by 12Z Saturday. Subsequent development across and east of the southern Great Plains over the weekend into early next week remains much more unclear. ECENS/ECMWF-based guidance suggests that this feature emerges as an increasingly sheared perturbation across the southern tier, supportive of only low amplitude frontal wave development, until progressing across and east of the south Atlantic Seaboard. GEFS/GFS-based guidance forecasts similar shearing across the southern Great Plains, before phasing with an amplifying wave within the cyclonic regime initially confined to the Great Lakes vicinity. This would probably be accompanied by more substantive cyclogenesis, with a moistening and destabilizing warm sector which could become supportive of organized severe weather potential. Thereafter, through the early to middle portion of next week, models indicate that, as the persistent area of lower mid-level heights retreats to the north and east, mid/upper flow may become more supportive of strong cyclogenesis across Nebraska into the mid/lower Missouri Valley by late next Tuesday night. However, it appears that this will occur before the boundary-layer over the northwestern Gulf recovers sufficiently to support a substantive moist return flow. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... In the wake of renewed cyclogenesis across and north of the Canadian Maritimes, it appears that a broad area of lower mid-level heights will linger across the Great Lakes and Northeast late this week through the coming weekend. This may contribute to the maintenance of a confluent mid-level regime to the east of the Rockies, as much of the western and southern U.S. remains under the influence of one prominent belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific. One embedded short wave trough digging into the Southwest with an evolving mid-level low by early Friday is forecast to progress across the southern Rockies by 12Z Saturday. Subsequent development across and east of the southern Great Plains over the weekend into early next week remains much more unclear. ECENS/ECMWF-based guidance suggests that this feature emerges as an increasingly sheared perturbation across the southern tier, supportive of only low amplitude frontal wave development, until progressing across and east of the south Atlantic Seaboard. GEFS/GFS-based guidance forecasts similar shearing across the southern Great Plains, before phasing with an amplifying wave within the cyclonic regime initially confined to the Great Lakes vicinity. This would probably be accompanied by more substantive cyclogenesis, with a moistening and destabilizing warm sector which could become supportive of organized severe weather potential. Thereafter, through the early to middle portion of next week, models indicate that, as the persistent area of lower mid-level heights retreats to the north and east, mid/upper flow may become more supportive of strong cyclogenesis across Nebraska into the mid/lower Missouri Valley by late next Tuesday night. However, it appears that this will occur before the boundary-layer over the northwestern Gulf recovers sufficiently to support a substantive moist return flow. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... In the wake of renewed cyclogenesis across and north of the Canadian Maritimes, it appears that a broad area of lower mid-level heights will linger across the Great Lakes and Northeast late this week through the coming weekend. This may contribute to the maintenance of a confluent mid-level regime to the east of the Rockies, as much of the western and southern U.S. remains under the influence of one prominent belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific. One embedded short wave trough digging into the Southwest with an evolving mid-level low by early Friday is forecast to progress across the southern Rockies by 12Z Saturday. Subsequent development across and east of the southern Great Plains over the weekend into early next week remains much more unclear. ECENS/ECMWF-based guidance suggests that this feature emerges as an increasingly sheared perturbation across the southern tier, supportive of only low amplitude frontal wave development, until progressing across and east of the south Atlantic Seaboard. GEFS/GFS-based guidance forecasts similar shearing across the southern Great Plains, before phasing with an amplifying wave within the cyclonic regime initially confined to the Great Lakes vicinity. This would probably be accompanied by more substantive cyclogenesis, with a moistening and destabilizing warm sector which could become supportive of organized severe weather potential. Thereafter, through the early to middle portion of next week, models indicate that, as the persistent area of lower mid-level heights retreats to the north and east, mid/upper flow may become more supportive of strong cyclogenesis across Nebraska into the mid/lower Missouri Valley by late next Tuesday night. However, it appears that this will occur before the boundary-layer over the northwestern Gulf recovers sufficiently to support a substantive moist return flow. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... In the wake of renewed cyclogenesis across and north of the Canadian Maritimes, it appears that a broad area of lower mid-level heights will linger across the Great Lakes and Northeast late this week through the coming weekend. This may contribute to the maintenance of a confluent mid-level regime to the east of the Rockies, as much of the western and southern U.S. remains under the influence of one prominent belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific. One embedded short wave trough digging into the Southwest with an evolving mid-level low by early Friday is forecast to progress across the southern Rockies by 12Z Saturday. Subsequent development across and east of the southern Great Plains over the weekend into early next week remains much more unclear. ECENS/ECMWF-based guidance suggests that this feature emerges as an increasingly sheared perturbation across the southern tier, supportive of only low amplitude frontal wave development, until progressing across and east of the south Atlantic Seaboard. GEFS/GFS-based guidance forecasts similar shearing across the southern Great Plains, before phasing with an amplifying wave within the cyclonic regime initially confined to the Great Lakes vicinity. This would probably be accompanied by more substantive cyclogenesis, with a moistening and destabilizing warm sector which could become supportive of organized severe weather potential. Thereafter, through the early to middle portion of next week, models indicate that, as the persistent area of lower mid-level heights retreats to the north and east, mid/upper flow may become more supportive of strong cyclogenesis across Nebraska into the mid/lower Missouri Valley by late next Tuesday night. However, it appears that this will occur before the boundary-layer over the northwestern Gulf recovers sufficiently to support a substantive moist return flow. Read more