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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS EAST-SOTUHEASTWARD TO SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough/low will shift eastward across the central and southern Plains, and into the Mississippi Valley overnight. As this occurs, a deepening surface low will shift out of the Oklahoma vicinity northeastward, reaching Illinois by the end of the period while occluding with time. Meanwhile, a cold front will sweep steadily eastward, reaching the west slopes of the Appalachians late. ...Eastern portions of Texas and Oklahoma eastward to the southern Appalachians/Southeast... A frontal band of convection is forecast to be ongoing/shifting eastward from far eastern Kansas/western Missouri southward into north-central/northeastern Texas. The storms will be moving through a warm sector featuring modest low-level moisture/weak low-level lapse rates, but intense shear. This will remain the situation with eastward extent across much of the severe-risk area, as the airmass preceding this system remains stable at low levels. Substantial low-level theta-e advection immediately ahead of the advancing front will support a decrease in low-level stability just prior to frontal passage, but it remains unclear as to whether any convection in advance of the primary frontal band will ever become sufficiently surface-based to realize the intene shear that will be present. As such, this remains a highly conditional scenario in terms of severe/tornado risk, but with local, high-end potential. With that said, ENH risk appears to be the most reasonable forecast, all things considered. Storms moving eastward across the Arklatex/East Texas early in the day will pose and ongoing, all-hazards severe risk, where locally more-intense convective elements evolve within a loosely organized band of storms. Convection should move across Arkansas and Louisiana through the afternoon, into/across the lower Mississippi Valley area through late afternoon. Slightly greater tornado potential may evolve across parts of Louisiana and southern Mississippi, nearest to the return of greater Gulf moisture (upper 60s to near 70 dewpoints). Even here, however, very weak low-level lapse rates should limit overall coverage of any more substantial severe potential. Storms will continue spreading eastward across the Tennessee Valley area and Gulf Coast states overnight, with continuation of isolated severe storms and all-hazards risk -- primarily supported by the strongly veering/increasing flow with height. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Farther east, across Missouri and into western Illinois, elevated storms east of the primary zone of convection may pose limited/local risk for marginal hail during the morning and into the afternoon hours. ..Goss/Squitieri.. 03/04/2025 Read more

WW 0017 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 17 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE CDS TO 15 E CSM TO 40 SW END TO 40 NW PNC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0126. ..LEITMAN..03/04/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 17 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC011-015-017-019-027-031-033-047-049-051-053-055-065-067-069- 071-073-075-081-083-085-087-095-099-103-109-119-123-125-133-137- 141-149-040640- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN CARTER CLEVELAND COMANCHE COTTON GARFIELD GARVIN GRADY GRANT GREER JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KAY KINGFISHER KIOWA LINCOLN LOGAN LOVE MCCLAIN MARSHALL MURRAY NOBLE OKLAHOMA PAYNE PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE STEPHENS TILLMAN WASHITA TXC009-023-049-059-077-081-083-095-097-133-155-197-207-237-253- 275-337-353-363-399-417-429-441-447-451-485-487-503-040640- Read more

WW 0016 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE AVK TO 15 NNE HUT. ..LEITMAN..03/04/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC015-019-035-049-077-079-095-155-173-191-040640- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY ELK HARPER HARVEY KINGMAN RENO SEDGWICK SUMNER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

Aqua Pennsylvania reminded customers that a mandatory water conservation notice remained in effect for communities served by the Roaring Creek Water Plant in Northumberland, Columbia and Schuylkill counties. The water conservation order was issued on Nov. 18. Customers could experience service impacts if the restrictions were not observed. The News-Item (Shamokin, Pa.), March 3, 2025

WW 0017 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 17 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE CDS TO 25 NNW CSM TO 5 SSW AVK TO 5 SSE P28. ..LEITMAN..03/04/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 17 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC003-011-015-017-019-027-031-033-039-043-047-049-051-053-055- 057-065-067-069-071-073-075-081-083-085-087-093-095-099-103-109- 119-123-125-133-137-141-149-040540- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN CARTER CLEVELAND COMANCHE COTTON CUSTER DEWEY GARFIELD GARVIN GRADY GRANT GREER HARMON JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KAY KINGFISHER KIOWA LINCOLN LOGAN LOVE MCCLAIN MAJOR MARSHALL MURRAY NOBLE OKLAHOMA PAYNE PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE STEPHENS TILLMAN WASHITA TXC009-023-049-059-077-081-083-095-097-133-155-197-207-237-253- 275-337-353-363-399-417-429-441-447-451-485-487-503-040540- Read more

WW 0016 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW AVK TO 40 SSE RSL. ..LEITMAN..03/04/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-015-019-035-049-077-079-095-151-155-173-185-191-040540- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BUTLER CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY ELK HARPER HARVEY KINGMAN PRATT RENO SEDGWICK STAFFORD SUMNER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0017 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0017 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0016 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0016 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0125 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OK INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0125 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Areas affected...portions of western and central OK into western North Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 040155Z - 040330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to rapidly increase by 04z. All severe hazards, including damaging winds, a few tornadoes and large hail are possible late this evening into the overnight hours. A tornado watch will likely be needed by 03z. DISCUSSION...Warm advection continues across OK/TX on strengthening low-level south/southeasterly flow. Mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints are now evident in surface observations with destabilization underway across western OK/northwest TX. The 00z RAOB from FWD indicated a fairly deep boundary layer with a 64 F dewpoint, while OUN showed more marginal moisture, but still a saturated boundary layer to just below 850 mb. Atop the relatively cool but moist boundary layer, capping will likely persist until a cold front and strong large-scale ascent impinges on the region. Forecast soundings suggest convection developing rapidly along the eastward-advancing cold front will struggle to become fully surface-based given somewhat marginal boundary layer dewpoints. However, strong forcing and continued warm advection may be sufficient for sporadic surface-based storms, especially near/south of the Red River. If this occurs, intense low-level shear and favorable hodographs already evident in regional VWP data, suggest some tornado potential is likely both with the developing QLCS and any line-embedded supercells. In addition to tornado potential, steep midlevel lapse rates and cooling aloft, coupled with elongated hodographs above 2-3 km indicated large hail will be possible. This will be most likely early in convective evolution or with any semi-discrete cells that can be maintained. Furthermore, given strength of deep-layer flow and a somewhat fast-moving line of storms, damaging winds also will be likely. A tornado watch will likely be needed in the next hour or so. ..Leitman/Guyer.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 35059981 36989948 36979659 35049677 32599753 32629844 32719999 33379997 35059981 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Mar 4 03:02:01 UTC 2025.

MD 0124 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0124 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0713 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Areas affected...portions of south-central and southeast Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 040113Z - 040245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms posing main a risk for large hail and isolated damaging wind gusts are expected to develop by 03-04z. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed for portions of south-central and southeast Kansas in the next hour or so. DISCUSSION...Low-level warm advection across OK/TX into southern KS will persist through the evening and overnight hours ahead of an eastward-advancing surface low (currently centered over southeast CO) and attendant cold front. 00z regional RAOBs from DDC and OUN indicate a robust warm layer/cap atop a cool boundary layer, similar to forecast sounding guidance. Strong large-scale ascent associated with the ejecting upper low/shortwave trough and linear forcing related to the advancing cold front will act to weak inhibition some. However, convection developing by 03-04z is expected to largely remain elevated given a lack of a warmer/more moist boundary layer. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates (500 mb temps around -17 to -16 C) will support MUCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg. Strong deep layer flow with effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt will likewise foster organized convection. An elevated line of convection, perhaps mixed with some cellular elements, will sweep across south-central/southeast KS during the evening to overnight hours. Initial convection within the first couple of hours will pose a greater risk for large hail if storm mode can maintain cellular characteristics. Otherwise, some risk for isolated damaging gusts also will be possible even with elevated storm given strong low-level flow and restively quick storm motion. While the elevated nature of convection is expected to limit tornado potential across Kansas, low-level wind profiles are quite favorable for rotation. While a brief spin-up cannot be ruled out, the overall tornado risk is expected to remain secondary to large hail and strong gust potential. ..Leitman/Guyer.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...DDC... LAT...LON 37019924 38089885 38289840 38429736 38399619 37899546 37009539 37019924 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop across parts of the southern and central Plains this evening, and continue to increase overnight. A few tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail are all possible. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas... Mid-level short-wave troughing -- on the southern periphery of a Four Corners area upper low -- will continue to shift eastward across the southern Rockies and into the central and southern Plains tonight. An associated cold front now over the central and southern High Plains will likewise advance eastward through the end of the period. Ahead of this system, low-level warm/moist advection continues, on strong southeasterly low-level flow. This is resulting in gradual warm-sector destabilization, with an axis of around 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE now evident across portions of western Oklahoma and western North Texas ahead of the front. Over the next couple of hours, storm development is expected to occur -- with storms likely to be slightly elevated initially. Large hail would likely be the primary threat with the initial storms. With time, convection is expected to grow upscale linearly, as the front advances into a steadily destabilizing warm sector. Storms should become increasingly surface-based with time, evolving into an organized/semi-continuous frontal band. By the latter several hours of the period, sufficient surface-based CAPE combined with strong low-level shear, suggests stronger/rotating updrafts within the predominant more linear storm mode, supporting an increase in potential for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes through the end of the period. ..Goss.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop across parts of the southern and central Plains this evening, and continue to increase overnight. A few tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail are all possible. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas... Mid-level short-wave troughing -- on the southern periphery of a Four Corners area upper low -- will continue to shift eastward across the southern Rockies and into the central and southern Plains tonight. An associated cold front now over the central and southern High Plains will likewise advance eastward through the end of the period. Ahead of this system, low-level warm/moist advection continues, on strong southeasterly low-level flow. This is resulting in gradual warm-sector destabilization, with an axis of around 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE now evident across portions of western Oklahoma and western North Texas ahead of the front. Over the next couple of hours, storm development is expected to occur -- with storms likely to be slightly elevated initially. Large hail would likely be the primary threat with the initial storms. With time, convection is expected to grow upscale linearly, as the front advances into a steadily destabilizing warm sector. Storms should become increasingly surface-based with time, evolving into an organized/semi-continuous frontal band. By the latter several hours of the period, sufficient surface-based CAPE combined with strong low-level shear, suggests stronger/rotating updrafts within the predominant more linear storm mode, supporting an increase in potential for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes through the end of the period. ..Goss.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop across parts of the southern and central Plains this evening, and continue to increase overnight. A few tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail are all possible. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas... Mid-level short-wave troughing -- on the southern periphery of a Four Corners area upper low -- will continue to shift eastward across the southern Rockies and into the central and southern Plains tonight. An associated cold front now over the central and southern High Plains will likewise advance eastward through the end of the period. Ahead of this system, low-level warm/moist advection continues, on strong southeasterly low-level flow. This is resulting in gradual warm-sector destabilization, with an axis of around 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE now evident across portions of western Oklahoma and western North Texas ahead of the front. Over the next couple of hours, storm development is expected to occur -- with storms likely to be slightly elevated initially. Large hail would likely be the primary threat with the initial storms. With time, convection is expected to grow upscale linearly, as the front advances into a steadily destabilizing warm sector. Storms should become increasingly surface-based with time, evolving into an organized/semi-continuous frontal band. By the latter several hours of the period, sufficient surface-based CAPE combined with strong low-level shear, suggests stronger/rotating updrafts within the predominant more linear storm mode, supporting an increase in potential for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes through the end of the period. ..Goss.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop across parts of the southern and central Plains this evening, and continue to increase overnight. A few tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail are all possible. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas... Mid-level short-wave troughing -- on the southern periphery of a Four Corners area upper low -- will continue to shift eastward across the southern Rockies and into the central and southern Plains tonight. An associated cold front now over the central and southern High Plains will likewise advance eastward through the end of the period. Ahead of this system, low-level warm/moist advection continues, on strong southeasterly low-level flow. This is resulting in gradual warm-sector destabilization, with an axis of around 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE now evident across portions of western Oklahoma and western North Texas ahead of the front. Over the next couple of hours, storm development is expected to occur -- with storms likely to be slightly elevated initially. Large hail would likely be the primary threat with the initial storms. With time, convection is expected to grow upscale linearly, as the front advances into a steadily destabilizing warm sector. Storms should become increasingly surface-based with time, evolving into an organized/semi-continuous frontal band. By the latter several hours of the period, sufficient surface-based CAPE combined with strong low-level shear, suggests stronger/rotating updrafts within the predominant more linear storm mode, supporting an increase in potential for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes through the end of the period. ..Goss.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop across parts of the southern and central Plains this evening, and continue to increase overnight. A few tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail are all possible. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas... Mid-level short-wave troughing -- on the southern periphery of a Four Corners area upper low -- will continue to shift eastward across the southern Rockies and into the central and southern Plains tonight. An associated cold front now over the central and southern High Plains will likewise advance eastward through the end of the period. Ahead of this system, low-level warm/moist advection continues, on strong southeasterly low-level flow. This is resulting in gradual warm-sector destabilization, with an axis of around 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE now evident across portions of western Oklahoma and western North Texas ahead of the front. Over the next couple of hours, storm development is expected to occur -- with storms likely to be slightly elevated initially. Large hail would likely be the primary threat with the initial storms. With time, convection is expected to grow upscale linearly, as the front advances into a steadily destabilizing warm sector. Storms should become increasingly surface-based with time, evolving into an organized/semi-continuous frontal band. By the latter several hours of the period, sufficient surface-based CAPE combined with strong low-level shear, suggests stronger/rotating updrafts within the predominant more linear storm mode, supporting an increase in potential for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes through the end of the period. ..Goss.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop across parts of the southern and central Plains this evening, and continue to increase overnight. A few tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail are all possible. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas... Mid-level short-wave troughing -- on the southern periphery of a Four Corners area upper low -- will continue to shift eastward across the southern Rockies and into the central and southern Plains tonight. An associated cold front now over the central and southern High Plains will likewise advance eastward through the end of the period. Ahead of this system, low-level warm/moist advection continues, on strong southeasterly low-level flow. This is resulting in gradual warm-sector destabilization, with an axis of around 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE now evident across portions of western Oklahoma and western North Texas ahead of the front. Over the next couple of hours, storm development is expected to occur -- with storms likely to be slightly elevated initially. Large hail would likely be the primary threat with the initial storms. With time, convection is expected to grow upscale linearly, as the front advances into a steadily destabilizing warm sector. Storms should become increasingly surface-based with time, evolving into an organized/semi-continuous frontal band. By the latter several hours of the period, sufficient surface-based CAPE combined with strong low-level shear, suggests stronger/rotating updrafts within the predominant more linear storm mode, supporting an increase in potential for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes through the end of the period. ..Goss.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop across parts of the southern and central Plains this evening, and continue to increase overnight. A few tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail are all possible. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas... Mid-level short-wave troughing -- on the southern periphery of a Four Corners area upper low -- will continue to shift eastward across the southern Rockies and into the central and southern Plains tonight. An associated cold front now over the central and southern High Plains will likewise advance eastward through the end of the period. Ahead of this system, low-level warm/moist advection continues, on strong southeasterly low-level flow. This is resulting in gradual warm-sector destabilization, with an axis of around 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE now evident across portions of western Oklahoma and western North Texas ahead of the front. Over the next couple of hours, storm development is expected to occur -- with storms likely to be slightly elevated initially. Large hail would likely be the primary threat with the initial storms. With time, convection is expected to grow upscale linearly, as the front advances into a steadily destabilizing warm sector. Storms should become increasingly surface-based with time, evolving into an organized/semi-continuous frontal band. By the latter several hours of the period, sufficient surface-based CAPE combined with strong low-level shear, suggests stronger/rotating updrafts within the predominant more linear storm mode, supporting an increase in potential for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes through the end of the period. ..Goss.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop across parts of the southern and central Plains this evening, and continue to increase overnight. A few tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail are all possible. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas... Mid-level short-wave troughing -- on the southern periphery of a Four Corners area upper low -- will continue to shift eastward across the southern Rockies and into the central and southern Plains tonight. An associated cold front now over the central and southern High Plains will likewise advance eastward through the end of the period. Ahead of this system, low-level warm/moist advection continues, on strong southeasterly low-level flow. This is resulting in gradual warm-sector destabilization, with an axis of around 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE now evident across portions of western Oklahoma and western North Texas ahead of the front. Over the next couple of hours, storm development is expected to occur -- with storms likely to be slightly elevated initially. Large hail would likely be the primary threat with the initial storms. With time, convection is expected to grow upscale linearly, as the front advances into a steadily destabilizing warm sector. Storms should become increasingly surface-based with time, evolving into an organized/semi-continuous frontal band. By the latter several hours of the period, sufficient surface-based CAPE combined with strong low-level shear, suggests stronger/rotating updrafts within the predominant more linear storm mode, supporting an increase in potential for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes through the end of the period. ..Goss.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop across parts of the southern and central Plains this evening, and continue to increase overnight. A few tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail are all possible. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas... Mid-level short-wave troughing -- on the southern periphery of a Four Corners area upper low -- will continue to shift eastward across the southern Rockies and into the central and southern Plains tonight. An associated cold front now over the central and southern High Plains will likewise advance eastward through the end of the period. Ahead of this system, low-level warm/moist advection continues, on strong southeasterly low-level flow. This is resulting in gradual warm-sector destabilization, with an axis of around 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE now evident across portions of western Oklahoma and western North Texas ahead of the front. Over the next couple of hours, storm development is expected to occur -- with storms likely to be slightly elevated initially. Large hail would likely be the primary threat with the initial storms. With time, convection is expected to grow upscale linearly, as the front advances into a steadily destabilizing warm sector. Storms should become increasingly surface-based with time, evolving into an organized/semi-continuous frontal band. By the latter several hours of the period, sufficient surface-based CAPE combined with strong low-level shear, suggests stronger/rotating updrafts within the predominant more linear storm mode, supporting an increase in potential for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes through the end of the period. ..Goss.. 03/04/2025 Read more