SPC Mar 3, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

4 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OK...NORTHEAST TX...SOUTHERN AR...CENTRAL/NORTHERN LA...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS...SOUTHWEST AL...AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat of tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible on Tuesday from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... A strong and deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough and embedded midlevel cyclone will move eastward from the central/southern Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. A deepening surface cyclone is forecast to move eastward across KS through the day, and then northeastward across parts of MO/IL Tuesday night. Relatively modest low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the 40s/low 50s F) will stream northward within the warm sector of this cyclone into parts of the Midwest, with richer moisture (60s F dewpoints) remaining confined to parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. ...ArkLaTex region into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast... Organized convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast period Tuesday morning across parts of eastern OK/TX and perhaps southeast KS. The extent to which the morning convection will become surface-based remains somewhat uncertain, but very strong low-level and deep-layer shear and sufficient instability will support a conditional risk of all severe hazards with the early-day storms as they approach the ArkLaTex region. A strongly sheared QLCS is expected to approach the lower Mississippi Valley region by early afternoon. The magnitude of the severe threat with this QLCS, as well as the potential for preceding supercells, will be determined by the extent to which low-level moistening can keep pace with the primary convective line. Very strong flow in the lowest 3 km and 0-1 km SRH increasing above 400 m2/s2 will support a threat of potentially widespread damaging winds and line-embedded tornadoes wherever the organized QLCS can remain near-surface-based. The potential for longer-lived supercells is more uncertain, but cannot be ruled out immediately ahead of the QLCS, and also where large-scale ascent is somewhat weaker in closer proximity to the Gulf Coast. Any persistent discrete or embedded supercells could pose a threat of a strong tornado within the very strongly sheared environment. The northern/eastern extent of organized severe potential into Tuesday night will be constrained by increasingly prohibitive low-level stability. However, given the strength of the flow fields, any organized convection that persists into late Tuesday and early Wednesday could pose some risk of damaging wind, with some tornado threat potentially persisting in closer proximity to the Gulf Coast. ...Parts of eastern Kansas into Missouri... A few strong elevated storms could persist into Tuesday morning across parts of eastern KS into MO, potentially posing some threat of hail and locally gusty winds. The extent of diurnal heating in the wake of morning convection remains uncertain, but some surface-based destabilization will be possible during the afternoon as the midlevel cyclone and attendant cold temperatures aloft move over the region. If sufficient heating/destabilization can occur, then robust storm development will be possible in the vicinity of the eastward-moving cyclone, posing a risk of isolated hail, strong gusts, and possibly a tornado. ..Dean.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 3, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

4 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OK...NORTHEAST TX...SOUTHERN AR...CENTRAL/NORTHERN LA...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS...SOUTHWEST AL...AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat of tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible on Tuesday from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... A strong and deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough and embedded midlevel cyclone will move eastward from the central/southern Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. A deepening surface cyclone is forecast to move eastward across KS through the day, and then northeastward across parts of MO/IL Tuesday night. Relatively modest low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the 40s/low 50s F) will stream northward within the warm sector of this cyclone into parts of the Midwest, with richer moisture (60s F dewpoints) remaining confined to parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. ...ArkLaTex region into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast... Organized convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast period Tuesday morning across parts of eastern OK/TX and perhaps southeast KS. The extent to which the morning convection will become surface-based remains somewhat uncertain, but very strong low-level and deep-layer shear and sufficient instability will support a conditional risk of all severe hazards with the early-day storms as they approach the ArkLaTex region. A strongly sheared QLCS is expected to approach the lower Mississippi Valley region by early afternoon. The magnitude of the severe threat with this QLCS, as well as the potential for preceding supercells, will be determined by the extent to which low-level moistening can keep pace with the primary convective line. Very strong flow in the lowest 3 km and 0-1 km SRH increasing above 400 m2/s2 will support a threat of potentially widespread damaging winds and line-embedded tornadoes wherever the organized QLCS can remain near-surface-based. The potential for longer-lived supercells is more uncertain, but cannot be ruled out immediately ahead of the QLCS, and also where large-scale ascent is somewhat weaker in closer proximity to the Gulf Coast. Any persistent discrete or embedded supercells could pose a threat of a strong tornado within the very strongly sheared environment. The northern/eastern extent of organized severe potential into Tuesday night will be constrained by increasingly prohibitive low-level stability. However, given the strength of the flow fields, any organized convection that persists into late Tuesday and early Wednesday could pose some risk of damaging wind, with some tornado threat potentially persisting in closer proximity to the Gulf Coast. ...Parts of eastern Kansas into Missouri... A few strong elevated storms could persist into Tuesday morning across parts of eastern KS into MO, potentially posing some threat of hail and locally gusty winds. The extent of diurnal heating in the wake of morning convection remains uncertain, but some surface-based destabilization will be possible during the afternoon as the midlevel cyclone and attendant cold temperatures aloft move over the region. If sufficient heating/destabilization can occur, then robust storm development will be possible in the vicinity of the eastward-moving cyclone, posing a risk of isolated hail, strong gusts, and possibly a tornado. ..Dean.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 3, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

4 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OK...NORTHEAST TX...SOUTHERN AR...CENTRAL/NORTHERN LA...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS...SOUTHWEST AL...AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat of tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible on Tuesday from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... A strong and deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough and embedded midlevel cyclone will move eastward from the central/southern Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. A deepening surface cyclone is forecast to move eastward across KS through the day, and then northeastward across parts of MO/IL Tuesday night. Relatively modest low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the 40s/low 50s F) will stream northward within the warm sector of this cyclone into parts of the Midwest, with richer moisture (60s F dewpoints) remaining confined to parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. ...ArkLaTex region into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast... Organized convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast period Tuesday morning across parts of eastern OK/TX and perhaps southeast KS. The extent to which the morning convection will become surface-based remains somewhat uncertain, but very strong low-level and deep-layer shear and sufficient instability will support a conditional risk of all severe hazards with the early-day storms as they approach the ArkLaTex region. A strongly sheared QLCS is expected to approach the lower Mississippi Valley region by early afternoon. The magnitude of the severe threat with this QLCS, as well as the potential for preceding supercells, will be determined by the extent to which low-level moistening can keep pace with the primary convective line. Very strong flow in the lowest 3 km and 0-1 km SRH increasing above 400 m2/s2 will support a threat of potentially widespread damaging winds and line-embedded tornadoes wherever the organized QLCS can remain near-surface-based. The potential for longer-lived supercells is more uncertain, but cannot be ruled out immediately ahead of the QLCS, and also where large-scale ascent is somewhat weaker in closer proximity to the Gulf Coast. Any persistent discrete or embedded supercells could pose a threat of a strong tornado within the very strongly sheared environment. The northern/eastern extent of organized severe potential into Tuesday night will be constrained by increasingly prohibitive low-level stability. However, given the strength of the flow fields, any organized convection that persists into late Tuesday and early Wednesday could pose some risk of damaging wind, with some tornado threat potentially persisting in closer proximity to the Gulf Coast. ...Parts of eastern Kansas into Missouri... A few strong elevated storms could persist into Tuesday morning across parts of eastern KS into MO, potentially posing some threat of hail and locally gusty winds. The extent of diurnal heating in the wake of morning convection remains uncertain, but some surface-based destabilization will be possible during the afternoon as the midlevel cyclone and attendant cold temperatures aloft move over the region. If sufficient heating/destabilization can occur, then robust storm development will be possible in the vicinity of the eastward-moving cyclone, posing a risk of isolated hail, strong gusts, and possibly a tornado. ..Dean.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 3, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

4 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OK...NORTHEAST TX...SOUTHERN AR...CENTRAL/NORTHERN LA...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS...SOUTHWEST AL...AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat of tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible on Tuesday from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... A strong and deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough and embedded midlevel cyclone will move eastward from the central/southern Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. A deepening surface cyclone is forecast to move eastward across KS through the day, and then northeastward across parts of MO/IL Tuesday night. Relatively modest low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the 40s/low 50s F) will stream northward within the warm sector of this cyclone into parts of the Midwest, with richer moisture (60s F dewpoints) remaining confined to parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. ...ArkLaTex region into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast... Organized convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast period Tuesday morning across parts of eastern OK/TX and perhaps southeast KS. The extent to which the morning convection will become surface-based remains somewhat uncertain, but very strong low-level and deep-layer shear and sufficient instability will support a conditional risk of all severe hazards with the early-day storms as they approach the ArkLaTex region. A strongly sheared QLCS is expected to approach the lower Mississippi Valley region by early afternoon. The magnitude of the severe threat with this QLCS, as well as the potential for preceding supercells, will be determined by the extent to which low-level moistening can keep pace with the primary convective line. Very strong flow in the lowest 3 km and 0-1 km SRH increasing above 400 m2/s2 will support a threat of potentially widespread damaging winds and line-embedded tornadoes wherever the organized QLCS can remain near-surface-based. The potential for longer-lived supercells is more uncertain, but cannot be ruled out immediately ahead of the QLCS, and also where large-scale ascent is somewhat weaker in closer proximity to the Gulf Coast. Any persistent discrete or embedded supercells could pose a threat of a strong tornado within the very strongly sheared environment. The northern/eastern extent of organized severe potential into Tuesday night will be constrained by increasingly prohibitive low-level stability. However, given the strength of the flow fields, any organized convection that persists into late Tuesday and early Wednesday could pose some risk of damaging wind, with some tornado threat potentially persisting in closer proximity to the Gulf Coast. ...Parts of eastern Kansas into Missouri... A few strong elevated storms could persist into Tuesday morning across parts of eastern KS into MO, potentially posing some threat of hail and locally gusty winds. The extent of diurnal heating in the wake of morning convection remains uncertain, but some surface-based destabilization will be possible during the afternoon as the midlevel cyclone and attendant cold temperatures aloft move over the region. If sufficient heating/destabilization can occur, then robust storm development will be possible in the vicinity of the eastward-moving cyclone, posing a risk of isolated hail, strong gusts, and possibly a tornado. ..Dean.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 3, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

4 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OK...NORTHEAST TX...SOUTHERN AR...CENTRAL/NORTHERN LA...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS...SOUTHWEST AL...AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat of tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible on Tuesday from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... A strong and deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough and embedded midlevel cyclone will move eastward from the central/southern Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. A deepening surface cyclone is forecast to move eastward across KS through the day, and then northeastward across parts of MO/IL Tuesday night. Relatively modest low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the 40s/low 50s F) will stream northward within the warm sector of this cyclone into parts of the Midwest, with richer moisture (60s F dewpoints) remaining confined to parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. ...ArkLaTex region into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast... Organized convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast period Tuesday morning across parts of eastern OK/TX and perhaps southeast KS. The extent to which the morning convection will become surface-based remains somewhat uncertain, but very strong low-level and deep-layer shear and sufficient instability will support a conditional risk of all severe hazards with the early-day storms as they approach the ArkLaTex region. A strongly sheared QLCS is expected to approach the lower Mississippi Valley region by early afternoon. The magnitude of the severe threat with this QLCS, as well as the potential for preceding supercells, will be determined by the extent to which low-level moistening can keep pace with the primary convective line. Very strong flow in the lowest 3 km and 0-1 km SRH increasing above 400 m2/s2 will support a threat of potentially widespread damaging winds and line-embedded tornadoes wherever the organized QLCS can remain near-surface-based. The potential for longer-lived supercells is more uncertain, but cannot be ruled out immediately ahead of the QLCS, and also where large-scale ascent is somewhat weaker in closer proximity to the Gulf Coast. Any persistent discrete or embedded supercells could pose a threat of a strong tornado within the very strongly sheared environment. The northern/eastern extent of organized severe potential into Tuesday night will be constrained by increasingly prohibitive low-level stability. However, given the strength of the flow fields, any organized convection that persists into late Tuesday and early Wednesday could pose some risk of damaging wind, with some tornado threat potentially persisting in closer proximity to the Gulf Coast. ...Parts of eastern Kansas into Missouri... A few strong elevated storms could persist into Tuesday morning across parts of eastern KS into MO, potentially posing some threat of hail and locally gusty winds. The extent of diurnal heating in the wake of morning convection remains uncertain, but some surface-based destabilization will be possible during the afternoon as the midlevel cyclone and attendant cold temperatures aloft move over the region. If sufficient heating/destabilization can occur, then robust storm development will be possible in the vicinity of the eastward-moving cyclone, posing a risk of isolated hail, strong gusts, and possibly a tornado. ..Dean.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 3, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

4 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OK...NORTHEAST TX...SOUTHERN AR...CENTRAL/NORTHERN LA...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS...SOUTHWEST AL...AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat of tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible on Tuesday from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... A strong and deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough and embedded midlevel cyclone will move eastward from the central/southern Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. A deepening surface cyclone is forecast to move eastward across KS through the day, and then northeastward across parts of MO/IL Tuesday night. Relatively modest low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the 40s/low 50s F) will stream northward within the warm sector of this cyclone into parts of the Midwest, with richer moisture (60s F dewpoints) remaining confined to parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. ...ArkLaTex region into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast... Organized convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast period Tuesday morning across parts of eastern OK/TX and perhaps southeast KS. The extent to which the morning convection will become surface-based remains somewhat uncertain, but very strong low-level and deep-layer shear and sufficient instability will support a conditional risk of all severe hazards with the early-day storms as they approach the ArkLaTex region. A strongly sheared QLCS is expected to approach the lower Mississippi Valley region by early afternoon. The magnitude of the severe threat with this QLCS, as well as the potential for preceding supercells, will be determined by the extent to which low-level moistening can keep pace with the primary convective line. Very strong flow in the lowest 3 km and 0-1 km SRH increasing above 400 m2/s2 will support a threat of potentially widespread damaging winds and line-embedded tornadoes wherever the organized QLCS can remain near-surface-based. The potential for longer-lived supercells is more uncertain, but cannot be ruled out immediately ahead of the QLCS, and also where large-scale ascent is somewhat weaker in closer proximity to the Gulf Coast. Any persistent discrete or embedded supercells could pose a threat of a strong tornado within the very strongly sheared environment. The northern/eastern extent of organized severe potential into Tuesday night will be constrained by increasingly prohibitive low-level stability. However, given the strength of the flow fields, any organized convection that persists into late Tuesday and early Wednesday could pose some risk of damaging wind, with some tornado threat potentially persisting in closer proximity to the Gulf Coast. ...Parts of eastern Kansas into Missouri... A few strong elevated storms could persist into Tuesday morning across parts of eastern KS into MO, potentially posing some threat of hail and locally gusty winds. The extent of diurnal heating in the wake of morning convection remains uncertain, but some surface-based destabilization will be possible during the afternoon as the midlevel cyclone and attendant cold temperatures aloft move over the region. If sufficient heating/destabilization can occur, then robust storm development will be possible in the vicinity of the eastward-moving cyclone, posing a risk of isolated hail, strong gusts, and possibly a tornado. ..Dean.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

4 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...17z Update... Widespread critical to extremely critical fire-weather conditions are likely across much of the southern High Plains today. Morning observations show clearing skies and poor overnight humidity recoveries across much of eastern NM and southwest TX. Mid-level flow will dramatically increase late this morning through the afternoon as the upper trough and an 80-100 kt mid-level jet moves overhead. The increase in momentum aloft, in combination with the rapidly deepening lee low over eastern CO should allow for surface wind gusts of 45-60 mph over much of the southern High Plains. With afternoon RH minimums of 5-7%, widespread extremely critical conditions are likely within dry fuels. See the prior outlook for more information. The main changes implemented were to trim areas that received enough wetting rainfall to temper concerns somewhat across parts of western OK and the eastern TX Panhandle. The extremely critical was also expanded into western portions of the TX Panhandle where confidence has increased in strong wind gusts and very low RH supporting extreme fire behavior. ..Lyons.. 03/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies, encouraging rapid intensification of a surface low over the central High Plains. During the afternoon, a dryline will advance eastward across the southern High Plains, with very strong winds and low RH overspreading dry fuels in the post-dryline environment, supporting dangerous, rapid wildfire-spread potential. Surface west-southwesterly winds will exceed 20 mph and coincide with 15-20 percent RH on a widespread basis across much of the southern High Plains, with Elevated and Critical highlights maintained. There is persistence among the consensus in model guidance in showing 30-40 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH across portions of eastern New Mexico and Far West Texas. Given near critically dry fuels, the aforementioned meteorological conditions may support extreme wildfire behavior/spread, warranting the continuance of Extremely Critical highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

4 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...17z Update... Widespread critical to extremely critical fire-weather conditions are likely across much of the southern High Plains today. Morning observations show clearing skies and poor overnight humidity recoveries across much of eastern NM and southwest TX. Mid-level flow will dramatically increase late this morning through the afternoon as the upper trough and an 80-100 kt mid-level jet moves overhead. The increase in momentum aloft, in combination with the rapidly deepening lee low over eastern CO should allow for surface wind gusts of 45-60 mph over much of the southern High Plains. With afternoon RH minimums of 5-7%, widespread extremely critical conditions are likely within dry fuels. See the prior outlook for more information. The main changes implemented were to trim areas that received enough wetting rainfall to temper concerns somewhat across parts of western OK and the eastern TX Panhandle. The extremely critical was also expanded into western portions of the TX Panhandle where confidence has increased in strong wind gusts and very low RH supporting extreme fire behavior. ..Lyons.. 03/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies, encouraging rapid intensification of a surface low over the central High Plains. During the afternoon, a dryline will advance eastward across the southern High Plains, with very strong winds and low RH overspreading dry fuels in the post-dryline environment, supporting dangerous, rapid wildfire-spread potential. Surface west-southwesterly winds will exceed 20 mph and coincide with 15-20 percent RH on a widespread basis across much of the southern High Plains, with Elevated and Critical highlights maintained. There is persistence among the consensus in model guidance in showing 30-40 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH across portions of eastern New Mexico and Far West Texas. Given near critically dry fuels, the aforementioned meteorological conditions may support extreme wildfire behavior/spread, warranting the continuance of Extremely Critical highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

4 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...17z Update... Widespread critical to extremely critical fire-weather conditions are likely across much of the southern High Plains today. Morning observations show clearing skies and poor overnight humidity recoveries across much of eastern NM and southwest TX. Mid-level flow will dramatically increase late this morning through the afternoon as the upper trough and an 80-100 kt mid-level jet moves overhead. The increase in momentum aloft, in combination with the rapidly deepening lee low over eastern CO should allow for surface wind gusts of 45-60 mph over much of the southern High Plains. With afternoon RH minimums of 5-7%, widespread extremely critical conditions are likely within dry fuels. See the prior outlook for more information. The main changes implemented were to trim areas that received enough wetting rainfall to temper concerns somewhat across parts of western OK and the eastern TX Panhandle. The extremely critical was also expanded into western portions of the TX Panhandle where confidence has increased in strong wind gusts and very low RH supporting extreme fire behavior. ..Lyons.. 03/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies, encouraging rapid intensification of a surface low over the central High Plains. During the afternoon, a dryline will advance eastward across the southern High Plains, with very strong winds and low RH overspreading dry fuels in the post-dryline environment, supporting dangerous, rapid wildfire-spread potential. Surface west-southwesterly winds will exceed 20 mph and coincide with 15-20 percent RH on a widespread basis across much of the southern High Plains, with Elevated and Critical highlights maintained. There is persistence among the consensus in model guidance in showing 30-40 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH across portions of eastern New Mexico and Far West Texas. Given near critically dry fuels, the aforementioned meteorological conditions may support extreme wildfire behavior/spread, warranting the continuance of Extremely Critical highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

4 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...17z Update... Widespread critical to extremely critical fire-weather conditions are likely across much of the southern High Plains today. Morning observations show clearing skies and poor overnight humidity recoveries across much of eastern NM and southwest TX. Mid-level flow will dramatically increase late this morning through the afternoon as the upper trough and an 80-100 kt mid-level jet moves overhead. The increase in momentum aloft, in combination with the rapidly deepening lee low over eastern CO should allow for surface wind gusts of 45-60 mph over much of the southern High Plains. With afternoon RH minimums of 5-7%, widespread extremely critical conditions are likely within dry fuels. See the prior outlook for more information. The main changes implemented were to trim areas that received enough wetting rainfall to temper concerns somewhat across parts of western OK and the eastern TX Panhandle. The extremely critical was also expanded into western portions of the TX Panhandle where confidence has increased in strong wind gusts and very low RH supporting extreme fire behavior. ..Lyons.. 03/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies, encouraging rapid intensification of a surface low over the central High Plains. During the afternoon, a dryline will advance eastward across the southern High Plains, with very strong winds and low RH overspreading dry fuels in the post-dryline environment, supporting dangerous, rapid wildfire-spread potential. Surface west-southwesterly winds will exceed 20 mph and coincide with 15-20 percent RH on a widespread basis across much of the southern High Plains, with Elevated and Critical highlights maintained. There is persistence among the consensus in model guidance in showing 30-40 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH across portions of eastern New Mexico and Far West Texas. Given near critically dry fuels, the aforementioned meteorological conditions may support extreme wildfire behavior/spread, warranting the continuance of Extremely Critical highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

4 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...17z Update... Widespread critical to extremely critical fire-weather conditions are likely across much of the southern High Plains today. Morning observations show clearing skies and poor overnight humidity recoveries across much of eastern NM and southwest TX. Mid-level flow will dramatically increase late this morning through the afternoon as the upper trough and an 80-100 kt mid-level jet moves overhead. The increase in momentum aloft, in combination with the rapidly deepening lee low over eastern CO should allow for surface wind gusts of 45-60 mph over much of the southern High Plains. With afternoon RH minimums of 5-7%, widespread extremely critical conditions are likely within dry fuels. See the prior outlook for more information. The main changes implemented were to trim areas that received enough wetting rainfall to temper concerns somewhat across parts of western OK and the eastern TX Panhandle. The extremely critical was also expanded into western portions of the TX Panhandle where confidence has increased in strong wind gusts and very low RH supporting extreme fire behavior. ..Lyons.. 03/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies, encouraging rapid intensification of a surface low over the central High Plains. During the afternoon, a dryline will advance eastward across the southern High Plains, with very strong winds and low RH overspreading dry fuels in the post-dryline environment, supporting dangerous, rapid wildfire-spread potential. Surface west-southwesterly winds will exceed 20 mph and coincide with 15-20 percent RH on a widespread basis across much of the southern High Plains, with Elevated and Critical highlights maintained. There is persistence among the consensus in model guidance in showing 30-40 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH across portions of eastern New Mexico and Far West Texas. Given near critically dry fuels, the aforementioned meteorological conditions may support extreme wildfire behavior/spread, warranting the continuance of Extremely Critical highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

4 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...17z Update... Widespread critical to extremely critical fire-weather conditions are likely across much of the southern High Plains today. Morning observations show clearing skies and poor overnight humidity recoveries across much of eastern NM and southwest TX. Mid-level flow will dramatically increase late this morning through the afternoon as the upper trough and an 80-100 kt mid-level jet moves overhead. The increase in momentum aloft, in combination with the rapidly deepening lee low over eastern CO should allow for surface wind gusts of 45-60 mph over much of the southern High Plains. With afternoon RH minimums of 5-7%, widespread extremely critical conditions are likely within dry fuels. See the prior outlook for more information. The main changes implemented were to trim areas that received enough wetting rainfall to temper concerns somewhat across parts of western OK and the eastern TX Panhandle. The extremely critical was also expanded into western portions of the TX Panhandle where confidence has increased in strong wind gusts and very low RH supporting extreme fire behavior. ..Lyons.. 03/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies, encouraging rapid intensification of a surface low over the central High Plains. During the afternoon, a dryline will advance eastward across the southern High Plains, with very strong winds and low RH overspreading dry fuels in the post-dryline environment, supporting dangerous, rapid wildfire-spread potential. Surface west-southwesterly winds will exceed 20 mph and coincide with 15-20 percent RH on a widespread basis across much of the southern High Plains, with Elevated and Critical highlights maintained. There is persistence among the consensus in model guidance in showing 30-40 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH across portions of eastern New Mexico and Far West Texas. Given near critically dry fuels, the aforementioned meteorological conditions may support extreme wildfire behavior/spread, warranting the continuance of Extremely Critical highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

4 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...17z Update... Widespread critical to extremely critical fire-weather conditions are likely across much of the southern High Plains today. Morning observations show clearing skies and poor overnight humidity recoveries across much of eastern NM and southwest TX. Mid-level flow will dramatically increase late this morning through the afternoon as the upper trough and an 80-100 kt mid-level jet moves overhead. The increase in momentum aloft, in combination with the rapidly deepening lee low over eastern CO should allow for surface wind gusts of 45-60 mph over much of the southern High Plains. With afternoon RH minimums of 5-7%, widespread extremely critical conditions are likely within dry fuels. See the prior outlook for more information. The main changes implemented were to trim areas that received enough wetting rainfall to temper concerns somewhat across parts of western OK and the eastern TX Panhandle. The extremely critical was also expanded into western portions of the TX Panhandle where confidence has increased in strong wind gusts and very low RH supporting extreme fire behavior. ..Lyons.. 03/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies, encouraging rapid intensification of a surface low over the central High Plains. During the afternoon, a dryline will advance eastward across the southern High Plains, with very strong winds and low RH overspreading dry fuels in the post-dryline environment, supporting dangerous, rapid wildfire-spread potential. Surface west-southwesterly winds will exceed 20 mph and coincide with 15-20 percent RH on a widespread basis across much of the southern High Plains, with Elevated and Critical highlights maintained. There is persistence among the consensus in model guidance in showing 30-40 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH across portions of eastern New Mexico and Far West Texas. Given near critically dry fuels, the aforementioned meteorological conditions may support extreme wildfire behavior/spread, warranting the continuance of Extremely Critical highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Mar 3, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should increase late this evening and merge into a squall line overnight across parts of the southern and central Plains. Several tornadoes, scattered to numerous severe wind gusts, and large hail are all possible. ...Southern/Central Plains... A pronounced upper trough with attendant 80-100 kt mid-level jet will eject eastward from the Great Basin and Southwest across the southern/central High Plains through tonight. As large-scale ascent associated with this system overspreads the High Plains, lee cyclogenesis will occur over eastern CO. This surface low should deepen further late tonight into early Tuesday morning as it develops into western KS, and as a Pacific cold front sweeps east-southeastward over the southern High Plains through the end of the period. Low-level moisture (surface dewpoints generally in the upper 50s to low/mid 60s) over south/central TX this morning will continue to stream northward over the southern/central Plains ahead of the cold front and an eastward-mixing dryline. Current expectations are for a cap to inhibit robust, surface-based thunderstorm development until late this evening, likely after 03Z. Once the large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough and the Pacific cold front begin to intersect with the warm sector, intense thunderstorms should quickly develop over parts of western OK into south-central KS. Steep mid-level lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft, increasing low-level moisture, and strong deep-layer shear will all contribute to an environment conducive for supercells, with an associated threat for large hail initially. A fairly quick transition to a more linear/QLCS mode is expected as the cold front moves quickly east-southeastward overnight across KS/OK and north TX. Ample low-level shear will be present owing to a 45-60 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet, and embedded circulations within the line will likely be capable of producing tornadoes, assuming sufficient boundary-layer instability to support surface-based convection. Even with various NAM/RAP forecast soundings showing near-neutral lapse rates in the boundary layer overnight, the strength of the low-level flow should still be more than enough to support at least scattered severe/damaging winds with the line as it sweeps eastward across the southern/central Plains through the end of the period (early Tuesday morning). Recent surface observations show at least low 60s surface dewpoints into parts of western north TX and the Red River vicinity of southwest OK. This appears to be a little ahead of schedule for some guidance, and with about 12 more hours of low-level moisture return likely ahead of the cold front, concern is increasing that around 63-64F surface dewpoints should be in place across parts of western/central OK into north-central TX by the time convective initiation occurs tonight. An Enhanced Risk for tornadoes and severe/damaging winds has been introduced across parts of this region where confidence in surface-based thunderstorms and the best combination of instability and low-level shear is forecast. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 3, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should increase late this evening and merge into a squall line overnight across parts of the southern and central Plains. Several tornadoes, scattered to numerous severe wind gusts, and large hail are all possible. ...Southern/Central Plains... A pronounced upper trough with attendant 80-100 kt mid-level jet will eject eastward from the Great Basin and Southwest across the southern/central High Plains through tonight. As large-scale ascent associated with this system overspreads the High Plains, lee cyclogenesis will occur over eastern CO. This surface low should deepen further late tonight into early Tuesday morning as it develops into western KS, and as a Pacific cold front sweeps east-southeastward over the southern High Plains through the end of the period. Low-level moisture (surface dewpoints generally in the upper 50s to low/mid 60s) over south/central TX this morning will continue to stream northward over the southern/central Plains ahead of the cold front and an eastward-mixing dryline. Current expectations are for a cap to inhibit robust, surface-based thunderstorm development until late this evening, likely after 03Z. Once the large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough and the Pacific cold front begin to intersect with the warm sector, intense thunderstorms should quickly develop over parts of western OK into south-central KS. Steep mid-level lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft, increasing low-level moisture, and strong deep-layer shear will all contribute to an environment conducive for supercells, with an associated threat for large hail initially. A fairly quick transition to a more linear/QLCS mode is expected as the cold front moves quickly east-southeastward overnight across KS/OK and north TX. Ample low-level shear will be present owing to a 45-60 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet, and embedded circulations within the line will likely be capable of producing tornadoes, assuming sufficient boundary-layer instability to support surface-based convection. Even with various NAM/RAP forecast soundings showing near-neutral lapse rates in the boundary layer overnight, the strength of the low-level flow should still be more than enough to support at least scattered severe/damaging winds with the line as it sweeps eastward across the southern/central Plains through the end of the period (early Tuesday morning). Recent surface observations show at least low 60s surface dewpoints into parts of western north TX and the Red River vicinity of southwest OK. This appears to be a little ahead of schedule for some guidance, and with about 12 more hours of low-level moisture return likely ahead of the cold front, concern is increasing that around 63-64F surface dewpoints should be in place across parts of western/central OK into north-central TX by the time convective initiation occurs tonight. An Enhanced Risk for tornadoes and severe/damaging winds has been introduced across parts of this region where confidence in surface-based thunderstorms and the best combination of instability and low-level shear is forecast. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 3, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should increase late this evening and merge into a squall line overnight across parts of the southern and central Plains. Several tornadoes, scattered to numerous severe wind gusts, and large hail are all possible. ...Southern/Central Plains... A pronounced upper trough with attendant 80-100 kt mid-level jet will eject eastward from the Great Basin and Southwest across the southern/central High Plains through tonight. As large-scale ascent associated with this system overspreads the High Plains, lee cyclogenesis will occur over eastern CO. This surface low should deepen further late tonight into early Tuesday morning as it develops into western KS, and as a Pacific cold front sweeps east-southeastward over the southern High Plains through the end of the period. Low-level moisture (surface dewpoints generally in the upper 50s to low/mid 60s) over south/central TX this morning will continue to stream northward over the southern/central Plains ahead of the cold front and an eastward-mixing dryline. Current expectations are for a cap to inhibit robust, surface-based thunderstorm development until late this evening, likely after 03Z. Once the large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough and the Pacific cold front begin to intersect with the warm sector, intense thunderstorms should quickly develop over parts of western OK into south-central KS. Steep mid-level lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft, increasing low-level moisture, and strong deep-layer shear will all contribute to an environment conducive for supercells, with an associated threat for large hail initially. A fairly quick transition to a more linear/QLCS mode is expected as the cold front moves quickly east-southeastward overnight across KS/OK and north TX. Ample low-level shear will be present owing to a 45-60 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet, and embedded circulations within the line will likely be capable of producing tornadoes, assuming sufficient boundary-layer instability to support surface-based convection. Even with various NAM/RAP forecast soundings showing near-neutral lapse rates in the boundary layer overnight, the strength of the low-level flow should still be more than enough to support at least scattered severe/damaging winds with the line as it sweeps eastward across the southern/central Plains through the end of the period (early Tuesday morning). Recent surface observations show at least low 60s surface dewpoints into parts of western north TX and the Red River vicinity of southwest OK. This appears to be a little ahead of schedule for some guidance, and with about 12 more hours of low-level moisture return likely ahead of the cold front, concern is increasing that around 63-64F surface dewpoints should be in place across parts of western/central OK into north-central TX by the time convective initiation occurs tonight. An Enhanced Risk for tornadoes and severe/damaging winds has been introduced across parts of this region where confidence in surface-based thunderstorms and the best combination of instability and low-level shear is forecast. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 3, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should increase late this evening and merge into a squall line overnight across parts of the southern and central Plains. Several tornadoes, scattered to numerous severe wind gusts, and large hail are all possible. ...Southern/Central Plains... A pronounced upper trough with attendant 80-100 kt mid-level jet will eject eastward from the Great Basin and Southwest across the southern/central High Plains through tonight. As large-scale ascent associated with this system overspreads the High Plains, lee cyclogenesis will occur over eastern CO. This surface low should deepen further late tonight into early Tuesday morning as it develops into western KS, and as a Pacific cold front sweeps east-southeastward over the southern High Plains through the end of the period. Low-level moisture (surface dewpoints generally in the upper 50s to low/mid 60s) over south/central TX this morning will continue to stream northward over the southern/central Plains ahead of the cold front and an eastward-mixing dryline. Current expectations are for a cap to inhibit robust, surface-based thunderstorm development until late this evening, likely after 03Z. Once the large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough and the Pacific cold front begin to intersect with the warm sector, intense thunderstorms should quickly develop over parts of western OK into south-central KS. Steep mid-level lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft, increasing low-level moisture, and strong deep-layer shear will all contribute to an environment conducive for supercells, with an associated threat for large hail initially. A fairly quick transition to a more linear/QLCS mode is expected as the cold front moves quickly east-southeastward overnight across KS/OK and north TX. Ample low-level shear will be present owing to a 45-60 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet, and embedded circulations within the line will likely be capable of producing tornadoes, assuming sufficient boundary-layer instability to support surface-based convection. Even with various NAM/RAP forecast soundings showing near-neutral lapse rates in the boundary layer overnight, the strength of the low-level flow should still be more than enough to support at least scattered severe/damaging winds with the line as it sweeps eastward across the southern/central Plains through the end of the period (early Tuesday morning). Recent surface observations show at least low 60s surface dewpoints into parts of western north TX and the Red River vicinity of southwest OK. This appears to be a little ahead of schedule for some guidance, and with about 12 more hours of low-level moisture return likely ahead of the cold front, concern is increasing that around 63-64F surface dewpoints should be in place across parts of western/central OK into north-central TX by the time convective initiation occurs tonight. An Enhanced Risk for tornadoes and severe/damaging winds has been introduced across parts of this region where confidence in surface-based thunderstorms and the best combination of instability and low-level shear is forecast. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 3, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should increase late this evening and merge into a squall line overnight across parts of the southern and central Plains. Several tornadoes, scattered to numerous severe wind gusts, and large hail are all possible. ...Southern/Central Plains... A pronounced upper trough with attendant 80-100 kt mid-level jet will eject eastward from the Great Basin and Southwest across the southern/central High Plains through tonight. As large-scale ascent associated with this system overspreads the High Plains, lee cyclogenesis will occur over eastern CO. This surface low should deepen further late tonight into early Tuesday morning as it develops into western KS, and as a Pacific cold front sweeps east-southeastward over the southern High Plains through the end of the period. Low-level moisture (surface dewpoints generally in the upper 50s to low/mid 60s) over south/central TX this morning will continue to stream northward over the southern/central Plains ahead of the cold front and an eastward-mixing dryline. Current expectations are for a cap to inhibit robust, surface-based thunderstorm development until late this evening, likely after 03Z. Once the large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough and the Pacific cold front begin to intersect with the warm sector, intense thunderstorms should quickly develop over parts of western OK into south-central KS. Steep mid-level lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft, increasing low-level moisture, and strong deep-layer shear will all contribute to an environment conducive for supercells, with an associated threat for large hail initially. A fairly quick transition to a more linear/QLCS mode is expected as the cold front moves quickly east-southeastward overnight across KS/OK and north TX. Ample low-level shear will be present owing to a 45-60 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet, and embedded circulations within the line will likely be capable of producing tornadoes, assuming sufficient boundary-layer instability to support surface-based convection. Even with various NAM/RAP forecast soundings showing near-neutral lapse rates in the boundary layer overnight, the strength of the low-level flow should still be more than enough to support at least scattered severe/damaging winds with the line as it sweeps eastward across the southern/central Plains through the end of the period (early Tuesday morning). Recent surface observations show at least low 60s surface dewpoints into parts of western north TX and the Red River vicinity of southwest OK. This appears to be a little ahead of schedule for some guidance, and with about 12 more hours of low-level moisture return likely ahead of the cold front, concern is increasing that around 63-64F surface dewpoints should be in place across parts of western/central OK into north-central TX by the time convective initiation occurs tonight. An Enhanced Risk for tornadoes and severe/damaging winds has been introduced across parts of this region where confidence in surface-based thunderstorms and the best combination of instability and low-level shear is forecast. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 3, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should increase late this evening and merge into a squall line overnight across parts of the southern and central Plains. Several tornadoes, scattered to numerous severe wind gusts, and large hail are all possible. ...Southern/Central Plains... A pronounced upper trough with attendant 80-100 kt mid-level jet will eject eastward from the Great Basin and Southwest across the southern/central High Plains through tonight. As large-scale ascent associated with this system overspreads the High Plains, lee cyclogenesis will occur over eastern CO. This surface low should deepen further late tonight into early Tuesday morning as it develops into western KS, and as a Pacific cold front sweeps east-southeastward over the southern High Plains through the end of the period. Low-level moisture (surface dewpoints generally in the upper 50s to low/mid 60s) over south/central TX this morning will continue to stream northward over the southern/central Plains ahead of the cold front and an eastward-mixing dryline. Current expectations are for a cap to inhibit robust, surface-based thunderstorm development until late this evening, likely after 03Z. Once the large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough and the Pacific cold front begin to intersect with the warm sector, intense thunderstorms should quickly develop over parts of western OK into south-central KS. Steep mid-level lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft, increasing low-level moisture, and strong deep-layer shear will all contribute to an environment conducive for supercells, with an associated threat for large hail initially. A fairly quick transition to a more linear/QLCS mode is expected as the cold front moves quickly east-southeastward overnight across KS/OK and north TX. Ample low-level shear will be present owing to a 45-60 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet, and embedded circulations within the line will likely be capable of producing tornadoes, assuming sufficient boundary-layer instability to support surface-based convection. Even with various NAM/RAP forecast soundings showing near-neutral lapse rates in the boundary layer overnight, the strength of the low-level flow should still be more than enough to support at least scattered severe/damaging winds with the line as it sweeps eastward across the southern/central Plains through the end of the period (early Tuesday morning). Recent surface observations show at least low 60s surface dewpoints into parts of western north TX and the Red River vicinity of southwest OK. This appears to be a little ahead of schedule for some guidance, and with about 12 more hours of low-level moisture return likely ahead of the cold front, concern is increasing that around 63-64F surface dewpoints should be in place across parts of western/central OK into north-central TX by the time convective initiation occurs tonight. An Enhanced Risk for tornadoes and severe/damaging winds has been introduced across parts of this region where confidence in surface-based thunderstorms and the best combination of instability and low-level shear is forecast. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 3, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should increase late this evening and merge into a squall line overnight across parts of the southern and central Plains. Several tornadoes, scattered to numerous severe wind gusts, and large hail are all possible. ...Southern/Central Plains... A pronounced upper trough with attendant 80-100 kt mid-level jet will eject eastward from the Great Basin and Southwest across the southern/central High Plains through tonight. As large-scale ascent associated with this system overspreads the High Plains, lee cyclogenesis will occur over eastern CO. This surface low should deepen further late tonight into early Tuesday morning as it develops into western KS, and as a Pacific cold front sweeps east-southeastward over the southern High Plains through the end of the period. Low-level moisture (surface dewpoints generally in the upper 50s to low/mid 60s) over south/central TX this morning will continue to stream northward over the southern/central Plains ahead of the cold front and an eastward-mixing dryline. Current expectations are for a cap to inhibit robust, surface-based thunderstorm development until late this evening, likely after 03Z. Once the large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough and the Pacific cold front begin to intersect with the warm sector, intense thunderstorms should quickly develop over parts of western OK into south-central KS. Steep mid-level lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft, increasing low-level moisture, and strong deep-layer shear will all contribute to an environment conducive for supercells, with an associated threat for large hail initially. A fairly quick transition to a more linear/QLCS mode is expected as the cold front moves quickly east-southeastward overnight across KS/OK and north TX. Ample low-level shear will be present owing to a 45-60 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet, and embedded circulations within the line will likely be capable of producing tornadoes, assuming sufficient boundary-layer instability to support surface-based convection. Even with various NAM/RAP forecast soundings showing near-neutral lapse rates in the boundary layer overnight, the strength of the low-level flow should still be more than enough to support at least scattered severe/damaging winds with the line as it sweeps eastward across the southern/central Plains through the end of the period (early Tuesday morning). Recent surface observations show at least low 60s surface dewpoints into parts of western north TX and the Red River vicinity of southwest OK. This appears to be a little ahead of schedule for some guidance, and with about 12 more hours of low-level moisture return likely ahead of the cold front, concern is increasing that around 63-64F surface dewpoints should be in place across parts of western/central OK into north-central TX by the time convective initiation occurs tonight. An Enhanced Risk for tornadoes and severe/damaging winds has been introduced across parts of this region where confidence in surface-based thunderstorms and the best combination of instability and low-level shear is forecast. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 03/03/2025 Read more