SPC Mar 4, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop across parts of the southern and central Plains this evening, and continue to increase overnight. A few tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail are all possible. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas... Mid-level short-wave troughing -- on the southern periphery of a Four Corners area upper low -- will continue to shift eastward across the southern Rockies and into the central and southern Plains tonight. An associated cold front now over the central and southern High Plains will likewise advance eastward through the end of the period. Ahead of this system, low-level warm/moist advection continues, on strong southeasterly low-level flow. This is resulting in gradual warm-sector destabilization, with an axis of around 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE now evident across portions of western Oklahoma and western North Texas ahead of the front. Over the next couple of hours, storm development is expected to occur -- with storms likely to be slightly elevated initially. Large hail would likely be the primary threat with the initial storms. With time, convection is expected to grow upscale linearly, as the front advances into a steadily destabilizing warm sector. Storms should become increasingly surface-based with time, evolving into an organized/semi-continuous frontal band. By the latter several hours of the period, sufficient surface-based CAPE combined with strong low-level shear, suggests stronger/rotating updrafts within the predominant more linear storm mode, supporting an increase in potential for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes through the end of the period. ..Goss.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 4, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop across parts of the southern and central Plains this evening, and continue to increase overnight. A few tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail are all possible. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas... Mid-level short-wave troughing -- on the southern periphery of a Four Corners area upper low -- will continue to shift eastward across the southern Rockies and into the central and southern Plains tonight. An associated cold front now over the central and southern High Plains will likewise advance eastward through the end of the period. Ahead of this system, low-level warm/moist advection continues, on strong southeasterly low-level flow. This is resulting in gradual warm-sector destabilization, with an axis of around 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE now evident across portions of western Oklahoma and western North Texas ahead of the front. Over the next couple of hours, storm development is expected to occur -- with storms likely to be slightly elevated initially. Large hail would likely be the primary threat with the initial storms. With time, convection is expected to grow upscale linearly, as the front advances into a steadily destabilizing warm sector. Storms should become increasingly surface-based with time, evolving into an organized/semi-continuous frontal band. By the latter several hours of the period, sufficient surface-based CAPE combined with strong low-level shear, suggests stronger/rotating updrafts within the predominant more linear storm mode, supporting an increase in potential for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes through the end of the period. ..Goss.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 4, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop across parts of the southern and central Plains this evening, and continue to increase overnight. A few tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail are all possible. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas... Mid-level short-wave troughing -- on the southern periphery of a Four Corners area upper low -- will continue to shift eastward across the southern Rockies and into the central and southern Plains tonight. An associated cold front now over the central and southern High Plains will likewise advance eastward through the end of the period. Ahead of this system, low-level warm/moist advection continues, on strong southeasterly low-level flow. This is resulting in gradual warm-sector destabilization, with an axis of around 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE now evident across portions of western Oklahoma and western North Texas ahead of the front. Over the next couple of hours, storm development is expected to occur -- with storms likely to be slightly elevated initially. Large hail would likely be the primary threat with the initial storms. With time, convection is expected to grow upscale linearly, as the front advances into a steadily destabilizing warm sector. Storms should become increasingly surface-based with time, evolving into an organized/semi-continuous frontal band. By the latter several hours of the period, sufficient surface-based CAPE combined with strong low-level shear, suggests stronger/rotating updrafts within the predominant more linear storm mode, supporting an increase in potential for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes through the end of the period. ..Goss.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 4, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop across parts of the southern and central Plains this evening, and continue to increase overnight. A few tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail are all possible. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas... Mid-level short-wave troughing -- on the southern periphery of a Four Corners area upper low -- will continue to shift eastward across the southern Rockies and into the central and southern Plains tonight. An associated cold front now over the central and southern High Plains will likewise advance eastward through the end of the period. Ahead of this system, low-level warm/moist advection continues, on strong southeasterly low-level flow. This is resulting in gradual warm-sector destabilization, with an axis of around 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE now evident across portions of western Oklahoma and western North Texas ahead of the front. Over the next couple of hours, storm development is expected to occur -- with storms likely to be slightly elevated initially. Large hail would likely be the primary threat with the initial storms. With time, convection is expected to grow upscale linearly, as the front advances into a steadily destabilizing warm sector. Storms should become increasingly surface-based with time, evolving into an organized/semi-continuous frontal band. By the latter several hours of the period, sufficient surface-based CAPE combined with strong low-level shear, suggests stronger/rotating updrafts within the predominant more linear storm mode, supporting an increase in potential for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes through the end of the period. ..Goss.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC Mar 4, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop across parts of the southern and central Plains this evening, and continue to increase overnight. A few tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail are all possible. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas... Mid-level short-wave troughing -- on the southern periphery of a Four Corners area upper low -- will continue to shift eastward across the southern Rockies and into the central and southern Plains tonight. An associated cold front now over the central and southern High Plains will likewise advance eastward through the end of the period. Ahead of this system, low-level warm/moist advection continues, on strong southeasterly low-level flow. This is resulting in gradual warm-sector destabilization, with an axis of around 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE now evident across portions of western Oklahoma and western North Texas ahead of the front. Over the next couple of hours, storm development is expected to occur -- with storms likely to be slightly elevated initially. Large hail would likely be the primary threat with the initial storms. With time, convection is expected to grow upscale linearly, as the front advances into a steadily destabilizing warm sector. Storms should become increasingly surface-based with time, evolving into an organized/semi-continuous frontal band. By the latter several hours of the period, sufficient surface-based CAPE combined with strong low-level shear, suggests stronger/rotating updrafts within the predominant more linear storm mode, supporting an increase in potential for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes through the end of the period. ..Goss.. 03/04/2025 Read more

Stage 3 water conservation in Cedar Park, Texas

4 months 2 weeks ago
The City of Cedar Park moved to stage 3 water conservation measures on March 1 as drought persisted in Central Texas. Water customers were permitted to water outdoors once weekly. FOX 7 Austin (Texas), March 3, 2025

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

4 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z An active weather pattern will continue across the CONUS, resulting in multiple days of potentially enhanced fire-weather conditions later this week across various portions of the Southern Plains and Southwest. ...Southern Plains and Southwest... A highly amplified and progressive mid-level flow pattern is expected to continue over much of the CONUS through the extended forecast period. Shortwave ridging will develop and quickly move eastward over the Southwest D3/Wednesday. To the west of the ridge, a strong trough will move over the Southwest and Southern Plains D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. Several days of very dry and windy conditions are possible over eastern NM and west TX as a lee low deepens over CO. Overlapping with dry fuels, widespread critical fire-weather conditions are likely to end the workweek and into the weekend. Fire-weather concerns may continue into D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday as the main trough moves eastward and a second trough moves in from the west. Strong northwesterly flow is forecast to develop over the southern Plains as a second surface low intensifies. Confidence in sustained critical conditions is lower as the trough trends lower latitude and cooler conditions may develop over the plains. However, the presence of strong winds and dry fuels suggests some fire potential. Fire-weather concerns likely continue into early next week as progressive and amplified mid-level flow persists over the CONUS. Dry condition and strong winds look likely to continue over much of the southern CONUS. ..Lyons.. 03/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

4 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z An active weather pattern will continue across the CONUS, resulting in multiple days of potentially enhanced fire-weather conditions later this week across various portions of the Southern Plains and Southwest. ...Southern Plains and Southwest... A highly amplified and progressive mid-level flow pattern is expected to continue over much of the CONUS through the extended forecast period. Shortwave ridging will develop and quickly move eastward over the Southwest D3/Wednesday. To the west of the ridge, a strong trough will move over the Southwest and Southern Plains D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. Several days of very dry and windy conditions are possible over eastern NM and west TX as a lee low deepens over CO. Overlapping with dry fuels, widespread critical fire-weather conditions are likely to end the workweek and into the weekend. Fire-weather concerns may continue into D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday as the main trough moves eastward and a second trough moves in from the west. Strong northwesterly flow is forecast to develop over the southern Plains as a second surface low intensifies. Confidence in sustained critical conditions is lower as the trough trends lower latitude and cooler conditions may develop over the plains. However, the presence of strong winds and dry fuels suggests some fire potential. Fire-weather concerns likely continue into early next week as progressive and amplified mid-level flow persists over the CONUS. Dry condition and strong winds look likely to continue over much of the southern CONUS. ..Lyons.. 03/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

4 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z An active weather pattern will continue across the CONUS, resulting in multiple days of potentially enhanced fire-weather conditions later this week across various portions of the Southern Plains and Southwest. ...Southern Plains and Southwest... A highly amplified and progressive mid-level flow pattern is expected to continue over much of the CONUS through the extended forecast period. Shortwave ridging will develop and quickly move eastward over the Southwest D3/Wednesday. To the west of the ridge, a strong trough will move over the Southwest and Southern Plains D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. Several days of very dry and windy conditions are possible over eastern NM and west TX as a lee low deepens over CO. Overlapping with dry fuels, widespread critical fire-weather conditions are likely to end the workweek and into the weekend. Fire-weather concerns may continue into D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday as the main trough moves eastward and a second trough moves in from the west. Strong northwesterly flow is forecast to develop over the southern Plains as a second surface low intensifies. Confidence in sustained critical conditions is lower as the trough trends lower latitude and cooler conditions may develop over the plains. However, the presence of strong winds and dry fuels suggests some fire potential. Fire-weather concerns likely continue into early next week as progressive and amplified mid-level flow persists over the CONUS. Dry condition and strong winds look likely to continue over much of the southern CONUS. ..Lyons.. 03/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

4 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z An active weather pattern will continue across the CONUS, resulting in multiple days of potentially enhanced fire-weather conditions later this week across various portions of the Southern Plains and Southwest. ...Southern Plains and Southwest... A highly amplified and progressive mid-level flow pattern is expected to continue over much of the CONUS through the extended forecast period. Shortwave ridging will develop and quickly move eastward over the Southwest D3/Wednesday. To the west of the ridge, a strong trough will move over the Southwest and Southern Plains D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. Several days of very dry and windy conditions are possible over eastern NM and west TX as a lee low deepens over CO. Overlapping with dry fuels, widespread critical fire-weather conditions are likely to end the workweek and into the weekend. Fire-weather concerns may continue into D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday as the main trough moves eastward and a second trough moves in from the west. Strong northwesterly flow is forecast to develop over the southern Plains as a second surface low intensifies. Confidence in sustained critical conditions is lower as the trough trends lower latitude and cooler conditions may develop over the plains. However, the presence of strong winds and dry fuels suggests some fire potential. Fire-weather concerns likely continue into early next week as progressive and amplified mid-level flow persists over the CONUS. Dry condition and strong winds look likely to continue over much of the southern CONUS. ..Lyons.. 03/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

4 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z An active weather pattern will continue across the CONUS, resulting in multiple days of potentially enhanced fire-weather conditions later this week across various portions of the Southern Plains and Southwest. ...Southern Plains and Southwest... A highly amplified and progressive mid-level flow pattern is expected to continue over much of the CONUS through the extended forecast period. Shortwave ridging will develop and quickly move eastward over the Southwest D3/Wednesday. To the west of the ridge, a strong trough will move over the Southwest and Southern Plains D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. Several days of very dry and windy conditions are possible over eastern NM and west TX as a lee low deepens over CO. Overlapping with dry fuels, widespread critical fire-weather conditions are likely to end the workweek and into the weekend. Fire-weather concerns may continue into D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday as the main trough moves eastward and a second trough moves in from the west. Strong northwesterly flow is forecast to develop over the southern Plains as a second surface low intensifies. Confidence in sustained critical conditions is lower as the trough trends lower latitude and cooler conditions may develop over the plains. However, the presence of strong winds and dry fuels suggests some fire potential. Fire-weather concerns likely continue into early next week as progressive and amplified mid-level flow persists over the CONUS. Dry condition and strong winds look likely to continue over much of the southern CONUS. ..Lyons.. 03/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

4 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z An active weather pattern will continue across the CONUS, resulting in multiple days of potentially enhanced fire-weather conditions later this week across various portions of the Southern Plains and Southwest. ...Southern Plains and Southwest... A highly amplified and progressive mid-level flow pattern is expected to continue over much of the CONUS through the extended forecast period. Shortwave ridging will develop and quickly move eastward over the Southwest D3/Wednesday. To the west of the ridge, a strong trough will move over the Southwest and Southern Plains D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. Several days of very dry and windy conditions are possible over eastern NM and west TX as a lee low deepens over CO. Overlapping with dry fuels, widespread critical fire-weather conditions are likely to end the workweek and into the weekend. Fire-weather concerns may continue into D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday as the main trough moves eastward and a second trough moves in from the west. Strong northwesterly flow is forecast to develop over the southern Plains as a second surface low intensifies. Confidence in sustained critical conditions is lower as the trough trends lower latitude and cooler conditions may develop over the plains. However, the presence of strong winds and dry fuels suggests some fire potential. Fire-weather concerns likely continue into early next week as progressive and amplified mid-level flow persists over the CONUS. Dry condition and strong winds look likely to continue over much of the southern CONUS. ..Lyons.. 03/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

4 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z An active weather pattern will continue across the CONUS, resulting in multiple days of potentially enhanced fire-weather conditions later this week across various portions of the Southern Plains and Southwest. ...Southern Plains and Southwest... A highly amplified and progressive mid-level flow pattern is expected to continue over much of the CONUS through the extended forecast period. Shortwave ridging will develop and quickly move eastward over the Southwest D3/Wednesday. To the west of the ridge, a strong trough will move over the Southwest and Southern Plains D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. Several days of very dry and windy conditions are possible over eastern NM and west TX as a lee low deepens over CO. Overlapping with dry fuels, widespread critical fire-weather conditions are likely to end the workweek and into the weekend. Fire-weather concerns may continue into D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday as the main trough moves eastward and a second trough moves in from the west. Strong northwesterly flow is forecast to develop over the southern Plains as a second surface low intensifies. Confidence in sustained critical conditions is lower as the trough trends lower latitude and cooler conditions may develop over the plains. However, the presence of strong winds and dry fuels suggests some fire potential. Fire-weather concerns likely continue into early next week as progressive and amplified mid-level flow persists over the CONUS. Dry condition and strong winds look likely to continue over much of the southern CONUS. ..Lyons.. 03/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

4 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z An active weather pattern will continue across the CONUS, resulting in multiple days of potentially enhanced fire-weather conditions later this week across various portions of the Southern Plains and Southwest. ...Southern Plains and Southwest... A highly amplified and progressive mid-level flow pattern is expected to continue over much of the CONUS through the extended forecast period. Shortwave ridging will develop and quickly move eastward over the Southwest D3/Wednesday. To the west of the ridge, a strong trough will move over the Southwest and Southern Plains D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. Several days of very dry and windy conditions are possible over eastern NM and west TX as a lee low deepens over CO. Overlapping with dry fuels, widespread critical fire-weather conditions are likely to end the workweek and into the weekend. Fire-weather concerns may continue into D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday as the main trough moves eastward and a second trough moves in from the west. Strong northwesterly flow is forecast to develop over the southern Plains as a second surface low intensifies. Confidence in sustained critical conditions is lower as the trough trends lower latitude and cooler conditions may develop over the plains. However, the presence of strong winds and dry fuels suggests some fire potential. Fire-weather concerns likely continue into early next week as progressive and amplified mid-level flow persists over the CONUS. Dry condition and strong winds look likely to continue over much of the southern CONUS. ..Lyons.. 03/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

4 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z An active weather pattern will continue across the CONUS, resulting in multiple days of potentially enhanced fire-weather conditions later this week across various portions of the Southern Plains and Southwest. ...Southern Plains and Southwest... A highly amplified and progressive mid-level flow pattern is expected to continue over much of the CONUS through the extended forecast period. Shortwave ridging will develop and quickly move eastward over the Southwest D3/Wednesday. To the west of the ridge, a strong trough will move over the Southwest and Southern Plains D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. Several days of very dry and windy conditions are possible over eastern NM and west TX as a lee low deepens over CO. Overlapping with dry fuels, widespread critical fire-weather conditions are likely to end the workweek and into the weekend. Fire-weather concerns may continue into D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday as the main trough moves eastward and a second trough moves in from the west. Strong northwesterly flow is forecast to develop over the southern Plains as a second surface low intensifies. Confidence in sustained critical conditions is lower as the trough trends lower latitude and cooler conditions may develop over the plains. However, the presence of strong winds and dry fuels suggests some fire potential. Fire-weather concerns likely continue into early next week as progressive and amplified mid-level flow persists over the CONUS. Dry condition and strong winds look likely to continue over much of the southern CONUS. ..Lyons.. 03/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Mar 3, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should increase late this evening and merge into a squall line overnight across parts of the southern and central Plains. Several tornadoes, scattered to numerous severe wind gusts, and large hail are all possible. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. In particular, the Marginal Risk was expanded northward into southwest IA, where steepening midlevel lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear orthogonal to the low-level front could promote an isolated severe hail risk late in the forecast period. Elsewhere, the Marginal and Slight Risk areas were expanded slightly westward over the southern/central Plains, to account for the latest high-resolution guidance depicting slightly earlier convective initiation in an environment favorable for large hail and severe wind gusts. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025/ ...Southern/Central Plains... A pronounced upper trough with attendant 80-100 kt mid-level jet will eject eastward from the Great Basin and Southwest across the southern/central High Plains through tonight. As large-scale ascent associated with this system overspreads the High Plains, lee cyclogenesis will occur over eastern CO. This surface low should deepen further late tonight into early Tuesday morning as it develops into western KS, and as a Pacific cold front sweeps east-southeastward over the southern High Plains through the end of the period. Low-level moisture (surface dewpoints generally in the upper 50s to low/mid 60s) over south/central TX this morning will continue to stream northward over the southern/central Plains ahead of the cold front and an eastward-mixing dryline. Current expectations are for a cap to inhibit robust, surface-based thunderstorm development until late this evening, likely after 03Z. Once the large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough and the Pacific cold front begin to intersect with the warm sector, intense thunderstorms should quickly develop over parts of western OK into south-central KS. Steep mid-level lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft, increasing low-level moisture, and strong deep-layer shear will all contribute to an environment conducive for supercells, with an associated threat for large hail initially. A fairly quick transition to a more linear/QLCS mode is expected as the cold front moves quickly east-southeastward overnight across KS/OK and north TX. Ample low-level shear will be present owing to a 45-60 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet, and embedded circulations within the line will likely be capable of producing tornadoes, assuming sufficient boundary-layer instability to support surface-based convection. Even with various NAM/RAP forecast soundings showing near-neutral lapse rates in the boundary layer overnight, the strength of the low-level flow should still be more than enough to support at least scattered severe/damaging winds with the line as it sweeps eastward across the southern/central Plains through the end of the period (early Tuesday morning). Recent surface observations show at least low 60s surface dewpoints into parts of western north TX and the Red River vicinity of southwest OK. This appears to be a little ahead of schedule for some guidance, and with about 12 more hours of low-level moisture return likely ahead of the cold front, concern is increasing that around 63-64F surface dewpoints should be in place across parts of western/central OK into north-central TX by the time convective initiation occurs tonight. An Enhanced Risk for tornadoes and severe/damaging winds has been introduced across parts of this region where confidence in surface-based thunderstorms and the best combination of instability and low-level shear is forecast. Read more

SPC Mar 3, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should increase late this evening and merge into a squall line overnight across parts of the southern and central Plains. Several tornadoes, scattered to numerous severe wind gusts, and large hail are all possible. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. In particular, the Marginal Risk was expanded northward into southwest IA, where steepening midlevel lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear orthogonal to the low-level front could promote an isolated severe hail risk late in the forecast period. Elsewhere, the Marginal and Slight Risk areas were expanded slightly westward over the southern/central Plains, to account for the latest high-resolution guidance depicting slightly earlier convective initiation in an environment favorable for large hail and severe wind gusts. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025/ ...Southern/Central Plains... A pronounced upper trough with attendant 80-100 kt mid-level jet will eject eastward from the Great Basin and Southwest across the southern/central High Plains through tonight. As large-scale ascent associated with this system overspreads the High Plains, lee cyclogenesis will occur over eastern CO. This surface low should deepen further late tonight into early Tuesday morning as it develops into western KS, and as a Pacific cold front sweeps east-southeastward over the southern High Plains through the end of the period. Low-level moisture (surface dewpoints generally in the upper 50s to low/mid 60s) over south/central TX this morning will continue to stream northward over the southern/central Plains ahead of the cold front and an eastward-mixing dryline. Current expectations are for a cap to inhibit robust, surface-based thunderstorm development until late this evening, likely after 03Z. Once the large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough and the Pacific cold front begin to intersect with the warm sector, intense thunderstorms should quickly develop over parts of western OK into south-central KS. Steep mid-level lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft, increasing low-level moisture, and strong deep-layer shear will all contribute to an environment conducive for supercells, with an associated threat for large hail initially. A fairly quick transition to a more linear/QLCS mode is expected as the cold front moves quickly east-southeastward overnight across KS/OK and north TX. Ample low-level shear will be present owing to a 45-60 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet, and embedded circulations within the line will likely be capable of producing tornadoes, assuming sufficient boundary-layer instability to support surface-based convection. Even with various NAM/RAP forecast soundings showing near-neutral lapse rates in the boundary layer overnight, the strength of the low-level flow should still be more than enough to support at least scattered severe/damaging winds with the line as it sweeps eastward across the southern/central Plains through the end of the period (early Tuesday morning). Recent surface observations show at least low 60s surface dewpoints into parts of western north TX and the Red River vicinity of southwest OK. This appears to be a little ahead of schedule for some guidance, and with about 12 more hours of low-level moisture return likely ahead of the cold front, concern is increasing that around 63-64F surface dewpoints should be in place across parts of western/central OK into north-central TX by the time convective initiation occurs tonight. An Enhanced Risk for tornadoes and severe/damaging winds has been introduced across parts of this region where confidence in surface-based thunderstorms and the best combination of instability and low-level shear is forecast. Read more

SPC Mar 3, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

4 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should increase late this evening and merge into a squall line overnight across parts of the southern and central Plains. Several tornadoes, scattered to numerous severe wind gusts, and large hail are all possible. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. In particular, the Marginal Risk was expanded northward into southwest IA, where steepening midlevel lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear orthogonal to the low-level front could promote an isolated severe hail risk late in the forecast period. Elsewhere, the Marginal and Slight Risk areas were expanded slightly westward over the southern/central Plains, to account for the latest high-resolution guidance depicting slightly earlier convective initiation in an environment favorable for large hail and severe wind gusts. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025/ ...Southern/Central Plains... A pronounced upper trough with attendant 80-100 kt mid-level jet will eject eastward from the Great Basin and Southwest across the southern/central High Plains through tonight. As large-scale ascent associated with this system overspreads the High Plains, lee cyclogenesis will occur over eastern CO. This surface low should deepen further late tonight into early Tuesday morning as it develops into western KS, and as a Pacific cold front sweeps east-southeastward over the southern High Plains through the end of the period. Low-level moisture (surface dewpoints generally in the upper 50s to low/mid 60s) over south/central TX this morning will continue to stream northward over the southern/central Plains ahead of the cold front and an eastward-mixing dryline. Current expectations are for a cap to inhibit robust, surface-based thunderstorm development until late this evening, likely after 03Z. Once the large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough and the Pacific cold front begin to intersect with the warm sector, intense thunderstorms should quickly develop over parts of western OK into south-central KS. Steep mid-level lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft, increasing low-level moisture, and strong deep-layer shear will all contribute to an environment conducive for supercells, with an associated threat for large hail initially. A fairly quick transition to a more linear/QLCS mode is expected as the cold front moves quickly east-southeastward overnight across KS/OK and north TX. Ample low-level shear will be present owing to a 45-60 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet, and embedded circulations within the line will likely be capable of producing tornadoes, assuming sufficient boundary-layer instability to support surface-based convection. Even with various NAM/RAP forecast soundings showing near-neutral lapse rates in the boundary layer overnight, the strength of the low-level flow should still be more than enough to support at least scattered severe/damaging winds with the line as it sweeps eastward across the southern/central Plains through the end of the period (early Tuesday morning). Recent surface observations show at least low 60s surface dewpoints into parts of western north TX and the Red River vicinity of southwest OK. This appears to be a little ahead of schedule for some guidance, and with about 12 more hours of low-level moisture return likely ahead of the cold front, concern is increasing that around 63-64F surface dewpoints should be in place across parts of western/central OK into north-central TX by the time convective initiation occurs tonight. An Enhanced Risk for tornadoes and severe/damaging winds has been introduced across parts of this region where confidence in surface-based thunderstorms and the best combination of instability and low-level shear is forecast. Read more