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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE NORTH... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms accompanied by at least some risk for severe wind and hail may impact parts of eastern New Mexico into the Texas South Plains, as well as parts of eastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota, late this afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts an upper trough/vorticity maximum settling into the southern/central High Plains. This feature is expected to stall and weaken over the Plains over the next 24 hours with a gradual abatement of mid-level flow. To the north, a pronounced mid-level wave is apparent over the Canadian Rockies/Prairies. This feature will continue southeastward into the northern Plains and upper Mississippi River Valley through tonight. Strong/severe thunderstorm chances will largely be attendant to these mid-level features. ...Southern High Plains... 05z surface observations across the southern Plains reveal a composite frontal zone/outflow boundary draped from far northeast NM through the TX/OK Panhandles and roughly along the OK/KS border. This boundary will likely be displaced southward as a result of early-morning convection, though precisely where this boundary resides by peak heating is somewhat uncertain. Regardless, thunderstorm development along this boundary is expected by late afternoon/early evening. To the south of this boundary, easterly winds on the northern periphery of a weak surface low over the Permian Basin will maintain an upslope flow regime along the eastern slopes of the Sacramento, Sandia Manzano, and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Modest westerly mid-level flow atop easterly low-level winds should yield sufficient deep-layer shear for a few organized storms, including a supercell or two. With time, upscale growth and/or merging with additional convection developing along the surface boundary will promote an increased threat for severe gusts through early evening. While convection is expected northeastward along much of the boundary from central OK into adjacent portions of KS/MO, weaker mid-level winds with eastward extent casts doubt on the potential for a robust severe threat (aside from occasional strong wet downbursts). ...Red River Valley of the North... Modest surface cyclogenesis is anticipated across the central Canadian Prairies over the next 24 hours as the mid-level wave approaches the international border. An attendant cold front is forecast to spread across the northern Plains through late afternoon and will impinge on a plume of seasonal low-level moisture. While mid-level lapse rates will remain modest (around 6-7 C/km), adequate buoyancy should be in place for deep convection. 30-40 knot mid-level flow should provide sufficient deep-layer shear for organized storms, though the marginal thermodynamic environment will likely be a modulating factor in overall storm intensity. Strong frontal forcing should promote upscale growth through the evening hours with an associated threat for damaging/severe winds. ..Moore/Darrow.. 08/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE NORTH... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms accompanied by at least some risk for severe wind and hail may impact parts of eastern New Mexico into the Texas South Plains, as well as parts of eastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota, late this afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts an upper trough/vorticity maximum settling into the southern/central High Plains. This feature is expected to stall and weaken over the Plains over the next 24 hours with a gradual abatement of mid-level flow. To the north, a pronounced mid-level wave is apparent over the Canadian Rockies/Prairies. This feature will continue southeastward into the northern Plains and upper Mississippi River Valley through tonight. Strong/severe thunderstorm chances will largely be attendant to these mid-level features. ...Southern High Plains... 05z surface observations across the southern Plains reveal a composite frontal zone/outflow boundary draped from far northeast NM through the TX/OK Panhandles and roughly along the OK/KS border. This boundary will likely be displaced southward as a result of early-morning convection, though precisely where this boundary resides by peak heating is somewhat uncertain. Regardless, thunderstorm development along this boundary is expected by late afternoon/early evening. To the south of this boundary, easterly winds on the northern periphery of a weak surface low over the Permian Basin will maintain an upslope flow regime along the eastern slopes of the Sacramento, Sandia Manzano, and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Modest westerly mid-level flow atop easterly low-level winds should yield sufficient deep-layer shear for a few organized storms, including a supercell or two. With time, upscale growth and/or merging with additional convection developing along the surface boundary will promote an increased threat for severe gusts through early evening. While convection is expected northeastward along much of the boundary from central OK into adjacent portions of KS/MO, weaker mid-level winds with eastward extent casts doubt on the potential for a robust severe threat (aside from occasional strong wet downbursts). ...Red River Valley of the North... Modest surface cyclogenesis is anticipated across the central Canadian Prairies over the next 24 hours as the mid-level wave approaches the international border. An attendant cold front is forecast to spread across the northern Plains through late afternoon and will impinge on a plume of seasonal low-level moisture. While mid-level lapse rates will remain modest (around 6-7 C/km), adequate buoyancy should be in place for deep convection. 30-40 knot mid-level flow should provide sufficient deep-layer shear for organized storms, though the marginal thermodynamic environment will likely be a modulating factor in overall storm intensity. Strong frontal forcing should promote upscale growth through the evening hours with an associated threat for damaging/severe winds. ..Moore/Darrow.. 08/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE NORTH... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms accompanied by at least some risk for severe wind and hail may impact parts of eastern New Mexico into the Texas South Plains, as well as parts of eastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota, late this afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts an upper trough/vorticity maximum settling into the southern/central High Plains. This feature is expected to stall and weaken over the Plains over the next 24 hours with a gradual abatement of mid-level flow. To the north, a pronounced mid-level wave is apparent over the Canadian Rockies/Prairies. This feature will continue southeastward into the northern Plains and upper Mississippi River Valley through tonight. Strong/severe thunderstorm chances will largely be attendant to these mid-level features. ...Southern High Plains... 05z surface observations across the southern Plains reveal a composite frontal zone/outflow boundary draped from far northeast NM through the TX/OK Panhandles and roughly along the OK/KS border. This boundary will likely be displaced southward as a result of early-morning convection, though precisely where this boundary resides by peak heating is somewhat uncertain. Regardless, thunderstorm development along this boundary is expected by late afternoon/early evening. To the south of this boundary, easterly winds on the northern periphery of a weak surface low over the Permian Basin will maintain an upslope flow regime along the eastern slopes of the Sacramento, Sandia Manzano, and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Modest westerly mid-level flow atop easterly low-level winds should yield sufficient deep-layer shear for a few organized storms, including a supercell or two. With time, upscale growth and/or merging with additional convection developing along the surface boundary will promote an increased threat for severe gusts through early evening. While convection is expected northeastward along much of the boundary from central OK into adjacent portions of KS/MO, weaker mid-level winds with eastward extent casts doubt on the potential for a robust severe threat (aside from occasional strong wet downbursts). ...Red River Valley of the North... Modest surface cyclogenesis is anticipated across the central Canadian Prairies over the next 24 hours as the mid-level wave approaches the international border. An attendant cold front is forecast to spread across the northern Plains through late afternoon and will impinge on a plume of seasonal low-level moisture. While mid-level lapse rates will remain modest (around 6-7 C/km), adequate buoyancy should be in place for deep convection. 30-40 knot mid-level flow should provide sufficient deep-layer shear for organized storms, though the marginal thermodynamic environment will likely be a modulating factor in overall storm intensity. Strong frontal forcing should promote upscale growth through the evening hours with an associated threat for damaging/severe winds. ..Moore/Darrow.. 08/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE NORTH... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms accompanied by at least some risk for severe wind and hail may impact parts of eastern New Mexico into the Texas South Plains, as well as parts of eastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota, late this afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts an upper trough/vorticity maximum settling into the southern/central High Plains. This feature is expected to stall and weaken over the Plains over the next 24 hours with a gradual abatement of mid-level flow. To the north, a pronounced mid-level wave is apparent over the Canadian Rockies/Prairies. This feature will continue southeastward into the northern Plains and upper Mississippi River Valley through tonight. Strong/severe thunderstorm chances will largely be attendant to these mid-level features. ...Southern High Plains... 05z surface observations across the southern Plains reveal a composite frontal zone/outflow boundary draped from far northeast NM through the TX/OK Panhandles and roughly along the OK/KS border. This boundary will likely be displaced southward as a result of early-morning convection, though precisely where this boundary resides by peak heating is somewhat uncertain. Regardless, thunderstorm development along this boundary is expected by late afternoon/early evening. To the south of this boundary, easterly winds on the northern periphery of a weak surface low over the Permian Basin will maintain an upslope flow regime along the eastern slopes of the Sacramento, Sandia Manzano, and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Modest westerly mid-level flow atop easterly low-level winds should yield sufficient deep-layer shear for a few organized storms, including a supercell or two. With time, upscale growth and/or merging with additional convection developing along the surface boundary will promote an increased threat for severe gusts through early evening. While convection is expected northeastward along much of the boundary from central OK into adjacent portions of KS/MO, weaker mid-level winds with eastward extent casts doubt on the potential for a robust severe threat (aside from occasional strong wet downbursts). ...Red River Valley of the North... Modest surface cyclogenesis is anticipated across the central Canadian Prairies over the next 24 hours as the mid-level wave approaches the international border. An attendant cold front is forecast to spread across the northern Plains through late afternoon and will impinge on a plume of seasonal low-level moisture. While mid-level lapse rates will remain modest (around 6-7 C/km), adequate buoyancy should be in place for deep convection. 30-40 knot mid-level flow should provide sufficient deep-layer shear for organized storms, though the marginal thermodynamic environment will likely be a modulating factor in overall storm intensity. Strong frontal forcing should promote upscale growth through the evening hours with an associated threat for damaging/severe winds. ..Moore/Darrow.. 08/11/2025 Read more

544
ABNT20 KNHC 110534
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization
in association with a well-defined low pressure area located near
the northwestern Cabo Verde Islands. The system will likely become
a tropical depression within the next day or so while it moves
generally westward. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are
expected to continue today across portions of the Cabo Verde
Islands, and interests there should monitor the progress of this
system.

Even if a tropical depression does not form over the next day or so,
environmental conditions appear conducive for later development, and
a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form by the
middle to latter portion of this week while moving westward to
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Central Atlantic (AL96):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a trough of low pressure located over the central tropical Atlantic.
Some gradual development is possible during the middle part of this
week while the system moves generally northward over the central
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

MD 1927 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 586... FOR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL OK
Mesoscale Discussion 1927 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Areas affected...Southwest/south-central KS into northwest/north-central OK Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 586... Valid 110408Z - 110545Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 586 continues. SUMMARY...The severe-wind threat may increase late tonight, along with a continued threat for isolated hail. Watch issuance downstream of WW 586 may be needed. DISCUSSION...The remnant of an earlier storm cluster across southeast CO (and a related midlevel vorticity maximum) is in the process of intercepting a cluster of supercells across southwest KS late this evening. This interaction, combined with a gradually increasing low-level jet and easterly flow near/north of a remnant boundary, could lead to upscale growth and development of a forward-propagating MCS. Should this occur, the severe-wind threat (including potential for gusts near or above 75 mph) would increase into the early overnight hours. Strong buoyancy and 30-40 kt of effective shear will also continue to support occasional supercells, with a threat of hail and possibly a brief tornado. Farther east, a storm cluster across north-central OK may continue to backbuild, as new cells continue to form to the cool side of a westward-moving outflow. Effective shear is this region is somewhat weaker (generally 25-30 kt), but sufficient for occasional organized cells in the presence of steep midlevel lapse rates and strong buoyancy. Hail and locally damaging wind will remain a threat with the strongest cells in this cluster. The westward-moving outflow from the northern OK cluster will eventually impinge upon the upscale-growing cluster across southwest KS, and potentially result in some weakening overnight. However, before any such weakening occurs, an organized severe-wind threat may spread downstream of WW 586, potentially resulting in new watch issuance. ..Dean/Guyer.. 08/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 37920129 38310077 38209895 38179795 37829731 37149683 36629699 36519768 36509819 36499922 36610002 36680089 36840113 37010146 37920129 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0587 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 587 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..08/11/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 587 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-015-019-033-035-047-049-073-077-079-095-097-125-145-151- 155-173-185-191-110640- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BUTLER CHAUTAUQUA COMANCHE COWLEY EDWARDS ELK GREENWOOD HARPER HARVEY KINGMAN KIOWA MONTGOMERY PAWNEE PRATT RENO SEDGWICK STAFFORD SUMNER OKC003-045-047-053-059-071-093-103-105-113-117-147-151-153- 110640- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA ELLIS GARFIELD GRANT HARPER KAY MAJOR NOBLE NOWATA OSAGE PAWNEE WASHINGTON WOODS WOODWARD Read more

WW 0586 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 586 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E DHT TO 30 WSW GUY TO 20 ESE GUY TO 25 S GCK TO 50 N GCK TO 25 NNW MCK. ..LEITMAN..08/11/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 586 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC025-039-057-063-065-069-083-101-119-135-137-179-195-110640- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK DECATUR FORD GOVE GRAHAM GRAY HODGEMAN LANE MEADE NESS NORTON SHERIDAN TREGO NEC145-110640- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE RED WILLOW OKC007-110640- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 110507
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Aug 10 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Henriette, located in the Central Pacific basin several hundred
miles north-northeast of the Hawaiian Islands, and on Tropical Storm
Ivo, located in the Eastern Pacific basin several hundred miles west
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

WW 0587 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0587 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0586 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 586 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1927 ..DEAN..08/11/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 586 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC025-039-055-057-063-065-067-069-071-075-081-083-093-101-109- 119-129-135-137-153-171-175-179-181-187-189-193-195-199-203- 110540- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK DECATUR FINNEY FORD GOVE GRAHAM GRANT GRAY GREELEY HAMILTON HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY LANE LOGAN MEADE MORTON NESS NORTON RAWLINS SCOTT SEWARD SHERIDAN SHERMAN STANTON STEVENS THOMAS TREGO WALLACE WICHITA NEC087-145-110540- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 11 Aug 2025 02:32:39 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 11 Aug 2025 03:27:22 GMT

MD 1926 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 585... FOR EASTERN COLORADO...NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 1926 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0829 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Colorado...Northeast New Mexico Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 585... Valid 110129Z - 110330Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 585 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated severe risk continues. DISCUSSION...Scattered robust convection persists across the plains of eastern CO into northeast NM, supported in part by favorable upslope boundary-layer flow. Southwestern flank of western U.S. trough appears to be aiding this activity as large-scale ascent is spreading into this region. Latest diagnostic data suggests substantial buoyancy persists ahead of this convection, thus longevity is anticipated with these storms as they propagate downstream toward western KS and portions of the OK/northern TX Panhandle region. Hail remains the primary concern, though damaging winds may become more common along the leading edge of more organized MCS clusters. ..Darrow.. 08/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 36740503 40900506 40910219 36740234 36740503 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0586 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 586 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..08/11/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 586 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC025-039-055-057-063-065-067-069-071-075-081-083-093-101-109- 119-129-135-137-153-171-175-179-181-187-189-193-195-199-203- 110340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK DECATUR FINNEY FORD GOVE GRAHAM GRANT GRAY GREELEY HAMILTON HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY LANE LOGAN MEADE MORTON NESS NORTON RAWLINS SCOTT SEWARD SHERIDAN SHERMAN STANTON STEVENS THOMAS TREGO WALLACE WICHITA NEC087-145-110340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HITCHCOCK RED WILLOW Read more

WW 0586 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 586 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..08/11/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 586 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC025-039-055-057-063-065-067-069-071-075-081-083-093-101-109- 119-129-135-137-153-171-175-179-181-187-189-193-195-199-203- 110340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK DECATUR FINNEY FORD GOVE GRAHAM GRANT GRAY GREELEY HAMILTON HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY LANE LOGAN MEADE MORTON NESS NORTON RAWLINS SCOTT SEWARD SHERIDAN SHERMAN STANTON STEVENS THOMAS TREGO WALLACE WICHITA NEC087-145-110340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HITCHCOCK RED WILLOW Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 11 Aug 2025 02:32:39 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 11 Aug 2025 02:32:39 GMT

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 10 2025 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 110231 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Ivo Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Cool waters, dry air, and northeasterly vertical wind shear are taking a toll on Ivo. Deep convection has been steadily declining over the past several hours, and the system appears to be on its way to becoming a remnant low. The initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt, making Ivo a tropical depression. Since the environment is expected to become even more hostile, Ivo is forecast to continue weakening. It is now forecast to become a remnant low early Monday and dissipate entirely in a couple of days. Ivo is moving toward the west-northwest at about 9 kt. A westward to west-northwestward motion at about the same forward speed is expected within the low-level flow until the system dissipates. Little change was made to the previous track, and this one lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 22.3N 117.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 22.6N 119.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 12/0000Z 22.8N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/1200Z 22.8N 123.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 11 2025 055 FOPZ14 KNHC 110231 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025 0300 UTC MON AUG 11 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 11 2025 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 110230 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025 0300 UTC MON AUG 11 2025 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 117.9W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 4 M SEAS.... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 117.9W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 117.4W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 22.6N 119.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 22.8N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 22.8N 123.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 117.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 10 2025 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 110230 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ivo Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 800 PM PDT Sun Aug 10 2025 ...IVO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 117.9W ABOUT 510 MI...825 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ivo was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 117.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A west-northwestward and then westward motion at a similar forward speed is expected during the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Ivo is expected to become a remnant low early Monday. The remnant low is forecast to dissipate on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi