Aggregator

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms will remain the primary fire weather concern for Tuesday across the country. Latest forecast guidance hints that a deeply-mixed, but adequately buoyant, environment will remain in place across central AZ on the northern fringe of deeper monsoonal moisture. Forcing for ascent will be fairly weak and largely driven by orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim. However, several deterministic CAM and recent HREF guidance hints at the potential for at least a few thunderstorms. This thermodynamic environment has yielded a mixture of wet and dry thunderstorms over the past 24 hours, so a similar combination appears probable for Tuesday. Fine fuels largely remain dry across the region, and recent lightning-caused fires hint that the fuel environment should support at least some fire starts. ...Pacific Northwest... A weak mid-level trough is forecast to move across the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. While flow aloft will be fairly modest, the zonal flow over the Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada will likely induce a downslope flow regime within an antecedent dry environment with receptive fuels. Ensemble support was too limited to warrant additional highlights, but localized elevated fire weather conditions appear possible across far northwest NV, eastern OR, and southern WA Tuesday afternoon. ..Moore.. 08/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms will remain the primary fire weather concern for Tuesday across the country. Latest forecast guidance hints that a deeply-mixed, but adequately buoyant, environment will remain in place across central AZ on the northern fringe of deeper monsoonal moisture. Forcing for ascent will be fairly weak and largely driven by orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim. However, several deterministic CAM and recent HREF guidance hints at the potential for at least a few thunderstorms. This thermodynamic environment has yielded a mixture of wet and dry thunderstorms over the past 24 hours, so a similar combination appears probable for Tuesday. Fine fuels largely remain dry across the region, and recent lightning-caused fires hint that the fuel environment should support at least some fire starts. ...Pacific Northwest... A weak mid-level trough is forecast to move across the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. While flow aloft will be fairly modest, the zonal flow over the Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada will likely induce a downslope flow regime within an antecedent dry environment with receptive fuels. Ensemble support was too limited to warrant additional highlights, but localized elevated fire weather conditions appear possible across far northwest NV, eastern OR, and southern WA Tuesday afternoon. ..Moore.. 08/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms will remain the primary fire weather concern for Tuesday across the country. Latest forecast guidance hints that a deeply-mixed, but adequately buoyant, environment will remain in place across central AZ on the northern fringe of deeper monsoonal moisture. Forcing for ascent will be fairly weak and largely driven by orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim. However, several deterministic CAM and recent HREF guidance hints at the potential for at least a few thunderstorms. This thermodynamic environment has yielded a mixture of wet and dry thunderstorms over the past 24 hours, so a similar combination appears probable for Tuesday. Fine fuels largely remain dry across the region, and recent lightning-caused fires hint that the fuel environment should support at least some fire starts. ...Pacific Northwest... A weak mid-level trough is forecast to move across the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. While flow aloft will be fairly modest, the zonal flow over the Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada will likely induce a downslope flow regime within an antecedent dry environment with receptive fuels. Ensemble support was too limited to warrant additional highlights, but localized elevated fire weather conditions appear possible across far northwest NV, eastern OR, and southern WA Tuesday afternoon. ..Moore.. 08/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms will remain the primary fire weather concern for Tuesday across the country. Latest forecast guidance hints that a deeply-mixed, but adequately buoyant, environment will remain in place across central AZ on the northern fringe of deeper monsoonal moisture. Forcing for ascent will be fairly weak and largely driven by orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim. However, several deterministic CAM and recent HREF guidance hints at the potential for at least a few thunderstorms. This thermodynamic environment has yielded a mixture of wet and dry thunderstorms over the past 24 hours, so a similar combination appears probable for Tuesday. Fine fuels largely remain dry across the region, and recent lightning-caused fires hint that the fuel environment should support at least some fire starts. ...Pacific Northwest... A weak mid-level trough is forecast to move across the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. While flow aloft will be fairly modest, the zonal flow over the Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada will likely induce a downslope flow regime within an antecedent dry environment with receptive fuels. Ensemble support was too limited to warrant additional highlights, but localized elevated fire weather conditions appear possible across far northwest NV, eastern OR, and southern WA Tuesday afternoon. ..Moore.. 08/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms will remain the primary fire weather concern for Tuesday across the country. Latest forecast guidance hints that a deeply-mixed, but adequately buoyant, environment will remain in place across central AZ on the northern fringe of deeper monsoonal moisture. Forcing for ascent will be fairly weak and largely driven by orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim. However, several deterministic CAM and recent HREF guidance hints at the potential for at least a few thunderstorms. This thermodynamic environment has yielded a mixture of wet and dry thunderstorms over the past 24 hours, so a similar combination appears probable for Tuesday. Fine fuels largely remain dry across the region, and recent lightning-caused fires hint that the fuel environment should support at least some fire starts. ...Pacific Northwest... A weak mid-level trough is forecast to move across the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. While flow aloft will be fairly modest, the zonal flow over the Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada will likely induce a downslope flow regime within an antecedent dry environment with receptive fuels. Ensemble support was too limited to warrant additional highlights, but localized elevated fire weather conditions appear possible across far northwest NV, eastern OR, and southern WA Tuesday afternoon. ..Moore.. 08/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms will remain the primary fire weather concern for Tuesday across the country. Latest forecast guidance hints that a deeply-mixed, but adequately buoyant, environment will remain in place across central AZ on the northern fringe of deeper monsoonal moisture. Forcing for ascent will be fairly weak and largely driven by orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim. However, several deterministic CAM and recent HREF guidance hints at the potential for at least a few thunderstorms. This thermodynamic environment has yielded a mixture of wet and dry thunderstorms over the past 24 hours, so a similar combination appears probable for Tuesday. Fine fuels largely remain dry across the region, and recent lightning-caused fires hint that the fuel environment should support at least some fire starts. ...Pacific Northwest... A weak mid-level trough is forecast to move across the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. While flow aloft will be fairly modest, the zonal flow over the Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada will likely induce a downslope flow regime within an antecedent dry environment with receptive fuels. Ensemble support was too limited to warrant additional highlights, but localized elevated fire weather conditions appear possible across far northwest NV, eastern OR, and southern WA Tuesday afternoon. ..Moore.. 08/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms will remain the primary fire weather concern for Tuesday across the country. Latest forecast guidance hints that a deeply-mixed, but adequately buoyant, environment will remain in place across central AZ on the northern fringe of deeper monsoonal moisture. Forcing for ascent will be fairly weak and largely driven by orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim. However, several deterministic CAM and recent HREF guidance hints at the potential for at least a few thunderstorms. This thermodynamic environment has yielded a mixture of wet and dry thunderstorms over the past 24 hours, so a similar combination appears probable for Tuesday. Fine fuels largely remain dry across the region, and recent lightning-caused fires hint that the fuel environment should support at least some fire starts. ...Pacific Northwest... A weak mid-level trough is forecast to move across the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. While flow aloft will be fairly modest, the zonal flow over the Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada will likely induce a downslope flow regime within an antecedent dry environment with receptive fuels. Ensemble support was too limited to warrant additional highlights, but localized elevated fire weather conditions appear possible across far northwest NV, eastern OR, and southern WA Tuesday afternoon. ..Moore.. 08/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms will remain the primary fire weather concern for Tuesday across the country. Latest forecast guidance hints that a deeply-mixed, but adequately buoyant, environment will remain in place across central AZ on the northern fringe of deeper monsoonal moisture. Forcing for ascent will be fairly weak and largely driven by orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim. However, several deterministic CAM and recent HREF guidance hints at the potential for at least a few thunderstorms. This thermodynamic environment has yielded a mixture of wet and dry thunderstorms over the past 24 hours, so a similar combination appears probable for Tuesday. Fine fuels largely remain dry across the region, and recent lightning-caused fires hint that the fuel environment should support at least some fire starts. ...Pacific Northwest... A weak mid-level trough is forecast to move across the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. While flow aloft will be fairly modest, the zonal flow over the Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada will likely induce a downslope flow regime within an antecedent dry environment with receptive fuels. Ensemble support was too limited to warrant additional highlights, but localized elevated fire weather conditions appear possible across far northwest NV, eastern OR, and southern WA Tuesday afternoon. ..Moore.. 08/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0587 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 587 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..08/11/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 587 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-015-019-033-035-047-049-073-077-079-095-097-125-145-151- 155-173-185-191-110740- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BUTLER CHAUTAUQUA COMANCHE COWLEY EDWARDS ELK GREENWOOD HARPER HARVEY KINGMAN KIOWA MONTGOMERY PAWNEE PRATT RENO SEDGWICK STAFFORD SUMNER OKC003-045-047-053-059-071-093-103-105-113-117-147-151-153- 110740- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA ELLIS GARFIELD GRANT HARPER KAY MAJOR NOBLE NOWATA OSAGE PAWNEE WASHINGTON WOODS WOODWARD Read more

WW 0586 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 586 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW BGD TO 10 SSW GUY TO 25 ESE GUY TO 15 WSW DDC TO 45 SSW HLC TO 30 WSW RSL. ..LEITMAN..08/11/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 586 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC025-057-083-119-135-110740- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK FORD HODGEMAN MEADE NESS OKC007-110740- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVER TXC195-295-357-110740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HANSFORD LIPSCOMB OCHILTREE Read more

WW 0586 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 586 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW BGD TO 10 SSW GUY TO 25 ESE GUY TO 15 WSW DDC TO 45 SSW HLC TO 30 WSW RSL. ..LEITMAN..08/11/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 586 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC025-057-083-119-135-110740- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK FORD HODGEMAN MEADE NESS OKC007-110740- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVER TXC195-295-357-110740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HANSFORD LIPSCOMB OCHILTREE Read more

WW 0586 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 586 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW BGD TO 10 SSW GUY TO 25 ESE GUY TO 15 WSW DDC TO 45 SSW HLC TO 30 WSW RSL. ..LEITMAN..08/11/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 586 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC025-057-083-119-135-110740- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK FORD HODGEMAN MEADE NESS OKC007-110740- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVER TXC195-295-357-110740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HANSFORD LIPSCOMB OCHILTREE Read more

WW 0586 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 586 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW BGD TO 10 SSW GUY TO 25 ESE GUY TO 15 WSW DDC TO 45 SSW HLC TO 30 WSW RSL. ..LEITMAN..08/11/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 586 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC025-057-083-119-135-110740- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK FORD HODGEMAN MEADE NESS OKC007-110740- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVER TXC195-295-357-110740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HANSFORD LIPSCOMB OCHILTREE Read more

WW 0586 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 586 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW BGD TO 10 SSW GUY TO 25 ESE GUY TO 15 WSW DDC TO 45 SSW HLC TO 30 WSW RSL. ..LEITMAN..08/11/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 586 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC025-057-083-119-135-110740- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK FORD HODGEMAN MEADE NESS OKC007-110740- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVER TXC195-295-357-110740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HANSFORD LIPSCOMB OCHILTREE Read more

WW 586 SEVERE TSTM KS NE OK TX 110120Z - 110800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 586 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 820 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Kansas Southwest Nebraska Oklahoma Panhandle Texas Panhandle * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 820 PM until 300 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Multiple clusters of storms will likely persist generally eastward out of eastern Colorado and northeast New Mexico this evening. This will include a continued large hail risk, along with the possibility that severe-caliber wind gust potential may increase as storms organize. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles north northwest of Mccook NE to 45 miles south southwest of Guymon OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 585... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Guyer Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Somewhat limited fire weather concerns are expected today across the Southwest/Four Corners region. Very dry conditions will persist across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners with widespread 5-15% RH minimums expected this afternoon. However, low-level winds are expected to be somewhat weaker today compared to previous days as a surface high gradually builds across the Intermountain west. Sustained winds between 10-15 mph will likely be accompanied by 15-25 mph gusts by around peak heating when boundary-layer mixing will be maximized, but confidence in sustained elevated conditions remains too limited to warrant highlights. Instead, fire weather concerns will manifest as another day of dry thunderstorm potential along the Mogollon Rim. Lightning data and MRMS imagery from the past 24 hours shows a mixture of heavy precipitation cores (QPE values near 0.25 inch) as well as multiple dry lightning strikes. Additionally, a couple of small fire starts were noted over the past 24 hours due to lightning. Similar thermodynamic conditions will be in place this afternoon and will likely yield a similar mixture of wet and dry thunderstorms. Unlikely previous days, thunderstorm coverage may be more limited due to weaker synoptic-scale forcing for ascent. ..Moore.. 08/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Somewhat limited fire weather concerns are expected today across the Southwest/Four Corners region. Very dry conditions will persist across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners with widespread 5-15% RH minimums expected this afternoon. However, low-level winds are expected to be somewhat weaker today compared to previous days as a surface high gradually builds across the Intermountain west. Sustained winds between 10-15 mph will likely be accompanied by 15-25 mph gusts by around peak heating when boundary-layer mixing will be maximized, but confidence in sustained elevated conditions remains too limited to warrant highlights. Instead, fire weather concerns will manifest as another day of dry thunderstorm potential along the Mogollon Rim. Lightning data and MRMS imagery from the past 24 hours shows a mixture of heavy precipitation cores (QPE values near 0.25 inch) as well as multiple dry lightning strikes. Additionally, a couple of small fire starts were noted over the past 24 hours due to lightning. Similar thermodynamic conditions will be in place this afternoon and will likely yield a similar mixture of wet and dry thunderstorms. Unlikely previous days, thunderstorm coverage may be more limited due to weaker synoptic-scale forcing for ascent. ..Moore.. 08/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Somewhat limited fire weather concerns are expected today across the Southwest/Four Corners region. Very dry conditions will persist across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners with widespread 5-15% RH minimums expected this afternoon. However, low-level winds are expected to be somewhat weaker today compared to previous days as a surface high gradually builds across the Intermountain west. Sustained winds between 10-15 mph will likely be accompanied by 15-25 mph gusts by around peak heating when boundary-layer mixing will be maximized, but confidence in sustained elevated conditions remains too limited to warrant highlights. Instead, fire weather concerns will manifest as another day of dry thunderstorm potential along the Mogollon Rim. Lightning data and MRMS imagery from the past 24 hours shows a mixture of heavy precipitation cores (QPE values near 0.25 inch) as well as multiple dry lightning strikes. Additionally, a couple of small fire starts were noted over the past 24 hours due to lightning. Similar thermodynamic conditions will be in place this afternoon and will likely yield a similar mixture of wet and dry thunderstorms. Unlikely previous days, thunderstorm coverage may be more limited due to weaker synoptic-scale forcing for ascent. ..Moore.. 08/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Somewhat limited fire weather concerns are expected today across the Southwest/Four Corners region. Very dry conditions will persist across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners with widespread 5-15% RH minimums expected this afternoon. However, low-level winds are expected to be somewhat weaker today compared to previous days as a surface high gradually builds across the Intermountain west. Sustained winds between 10-15 mph will likely be accompanied by 15-25 mph gusts by around peak heating when boundary-layer mixing will be maximized, but confidence in sustained elevated conditions remains too limited to warrant highlights. Instead, fire weather concerns will manifest as another day of dry thunderstorm potential along the Mogollon Rim. Lightning data and MRMS imagery from the past 24 hours shows a mixture of heavy precipitation cores (QPE values near 0.25 inch) as well as multiple dry lightning strikes. Additionally, a couple of small fire starts were noted over the past 24 hours due to lightning. Similar thermodynamic conditions will be in place this afternoon and will likely yield a similar mixture of wet and dry thunderstorms. Unlikely previous days, thunderstorm coverage may be more limited due to weaker synoptic-scale forcing for ascent. ..Moore.. 08/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Somewhat limited fire weather concerns are expected today across the Southwest/Four Corners region. Very dry conditions will persist across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners with widespread 5-15% RH minimums expected this afternoon. However, low-level winds are expected to be somewhat weaker today compared to previous days as a surface high gradually builds across the Intermountain west. Sustained winds between 10-15 mph will likely be accompanied by 15-25 mph gusts by around peak heating when boundary-layer mixing will be maximized, but confidence in sustained elevated conditions remains too limited to warrant highlights. Instead, fire weather concerns will manifest as another day of dry thunderstorm potential along the Mogollon Rim. Lightning data and MRMS imagery from the past 24 hours shows a mixture of heavy precipitation cores (QPE values near 0.25 inch) as well as multiple dry lightning strikes. Additionally, a couple of small fire starts were noted over the past 24 hours due to lightning. Similar thermodynamic conditions will be in place this afternoon and will likely yield a similar mixture of wet and dry thunderstorms. Unlikely previous days, thunderstorm coverage may be more limited due to weaker synoptic-scale forcing for ascent. ..Moore.. 08/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more