Aggregator

...IVO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sun Aug 10 the center of Ivo was located near 22.3, -117.9 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

WW 0586 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0586 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central/southern Plains tonight, with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. ...Synopsis... Latest water-vapor imagery shows a pronounced mid-level perturbation overspreading the central High Plains. Thunderstorm coverage has increase from western NE southward to eastern NM over the past several hours in response to increasing ascent over a buoyant air mass. Additionally, thunderstorm development over the past several hours has been focused along a residual frontal zone from north-central OK into southwest MO. Through the remainder of the night, thunderstorm activity (and most of the appreciable severe threat) will be focused across the central High Plains to the southern Plains as thunderstorms migrate out of eastern CO and develop along the frontal zone. ...Eastern CO to southwest KS/northwest OK... A band of convection across east-central CO has recently shown signs of re-intensification over the past 30-60 minutes after a temporary weakening phase - likely caused by the band impinging on richer low-level moisture/higher MLCAPE. The recent 00z DDC sounding sampled the downstream environment well and shows nearly 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and elongated hodographs supporting 45 knots of effective bulk shear. This thermodynamic/kinematic environment should support further intensification/organization as the developing MCS pushes east/southeast through the late evening/overnight hours with an attendant threat for severe winds. Downstream, additional development along the effective warm frontal zone is expected in the coming hours as the nocturnal jet strengthens over north-central OK. Thunderstorms developing within this regime will pose a threat for severe gusts as well as large hail. ...Southern to southeast WI... An MCV that developed across eastern IA late this afternoon continues to push northeast into southwest WI as of 01z. GOES imagery and lightning data have shown a slight uptick in intensity over the past hour, and RAP mesoanalysis estimates show meager recovery of low-level moisture/MLCAPE downstream of the MCV. Additionally, the 00z GRB sounding sampled 30-40 knot flow between 700 mb to 400 mb, suggesting that adequate deep-layer shear is in place to support some storm organization if the intensification trend can continue. That said, the window for any severe threat may be limited to the next few hours before nocturnal cooling begins to increase low-level inhibition. ...Southeast AZ... Isolated thunderstorms continue to percolate within the higher terrain of southeast AZ. While much of this activity has struggled to move off the terrain, latest CAM guidance suggests storms may begin to spread south as the mid-level perturbation passes to the northeast. With a hot/dry and deeply mixed environment still in place across southern/southeast AZ (e.g. the recent 00z TUS sounding), a few damaging to severe wind gusts will remain possible prior to the onset of nocturnal cooling in a few hours. ..Moore.. 08/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central/southern Plains tonight, with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. ...Synopsis... Latest water-vapor imagery shows a pronounced mid-level perturbation overspreading the central High Plains. Thunderstorm coverage has increase from western NE southward to eastern NM over the past several hours in response to increasing ascent over a buoyant air mass. Additionally, thunderstorm development over the past several hours has been focused along a residual frontal zone from north-central OK into southwest MO. Through the remainder of the night, thunderstorm activity (and most of the appreciable severe threat) will be focused across the central High Plains to the southern Plains as thunderstorms migrate out of eastern CO and develop along the frontal zone. ...Eastern CO to southwest KS/northwest OK... A band of convection across east-central CO has recently shown signs of re-intensification over the past 30-60 minutes after a temporary weakening phase - likely caused by the band impinging on richer low-level moisture/higher MLCAPE. The recent 00z DDC sounding sampled the downstream environment well and shows nearly 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and elongated hodographs supporting 45 knots of effective bulk shear. This thermodynamic/kinematic environment should support further intensification/organization as the developing MCS pushes east/southeast through the late evening/overnight hours with an attendant threat for severe winds. Downstream, additional development along the effective warm frontal zone is expected in the coming hours as the nocturnal jet strengthens over north-central OK. Thunderstorms developing within this regime will pose a threat for severe gusts as well as large hail. ...Southern to southeast WI... An MCV that developed across eastern IA late this afternoon continues to push northeast into southwest WI as of 01z. GOES imagery and lightning data have shown a slight uptick in intensity over the past hour, and RAP mesoanalysis estimates show meager recovery of low-level moisture/MLCAPE downstream of the MCV. Additionally, the 00z GRB sounding sampled 30-40 knot flow between 700 mb to 400 mb, suggesting that adequate deep-layer shear is in place to support some storm organization if the intensification trend can continue. That said, the window for any severe threat may be limited to the next few hours before nocturnal cooling begins to increase low-level inhibition. ...Southeast AZ... Isolated thunderstorms continue to percolate within the higher terrain of southeast AZ. While much of this activity has struggled to move off the terrain, latest CAM guidance suggests storms may begin to spread south as the mid-level perturbation passes to the northeast. With a hot/dry and deeply mixed environment still in place across southern/southeast AZ (e.g. the recent 00z TUS sounding), a few damaging to severe wind gusts will remain possible prior to the onset of nocturnal cooling in a few hours. ..Moore.. 08/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central/southern Plains tonight, with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. ...Synopsis... Latest water-vapor imagery shows a pronounced mid-level perturbation overspreading the central High Plains. Thunderstorm coverage has increase from western NE southward to eastern NM over the past several hours in response to increasing ascent over a buoyant air mass. Additionally, thunderstorm development over the past several hours has been focused along a residual frontal zone from north-central OK into southwest MO. Through the remainder of the night, thunderstorm activity (and most of the appreciable severe threat) will be focused across the central High Plains to the southern Plains as thunderstorms migrate out of eastern CO and develop along the frontal zone. ...Eastern CO to southwest KS/northwest OK... A band of convection across east-central CO has recently shown signs of re-intensification over the past 30-60 minutes after a temporary weakening phase - likely caused by the band impinging on richer low-level moisture/higher MLCAPE. The recent 00z DDC sounding sampled the downstream environment well and shows nearly 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and elongated hodographs supporting 45 knots of effective bulk shear. This thermodynamic/kinematic environment should support further intensification/organization as the developing MCS pushes east/southeast through the late evening/overnight hours with an attendant threat for severe winds. Downstream, additional development along the effective warm frontal zone is expected in the coming hours as the nocturnal jet strengthens over north-central OK. Thunderstorms developing within this regime will pose a threat for severe gusts as well as large hail. ...Southern to southeast WI... An MCV that developed across eastern IA late this afternoon continues to push northeast into southwest WI as of 01z. GOES imagery and lightning data have shown a slight uptick in intensity over the past hour, and RAP mesoanalysis estimates show meager recovery of low-level moisture/MLCAPE downstream of the MCV. Additionally, the 00z GRB sounding sampled 30-40 knot flow between 700 mb to 400 mb, suggesting that adequate deep-layer shear is in place to support some storm organization if the intensification trend can continue. That said, the window for any severe threat may be limited to the next few hours before nocturnal cooling begins to increase low-level inhibition. ...Southeast AZ... Isolated thunderstorms continue to percolate within the higher terrain of southeast AZ. While much of this activity has struggled to move off the terrain, latest CAM guidance suggests storms may begin to spread south as the mid-level perturbation passes to the northeast. With a hot/dry and deeply mixed environment still in place across southern/southeast AZ (e.g. the recent 00z TUS sounding), a few damaging to severe wind gusts will remain possible prior to the onset of nocturnal cooling in a few hours. ..Moore.. 08/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central/southern Plains tonight, with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. ...Synopsis... Latest water-vapor imagery shows a pronounced mid-level perturbation overspreading the central High Plains. Thunderstorm coverage has increase from western NE southward to eastern NM over the past several hours in response to increasing ascent over a buoyant air mass. Additionally, thunderstorm development over the past several hours has been focused along a residual frontal zone from north-central OK into southwest MO. Through the remainder of the night, thunderstorm activity (and most of the appreciable severe threat) will be focused across the central High Plains to the southern Plains as thunderstorms migrate out of eastern CO and develop along the frontal zone. ...Eastern CO to southwest KS/northwest OK... A band of convection across east-central CO has recently shown signs of re-intensification over the past 30-60 minutes after a temporary weakening phase - likely caused by the band impinging on richer low-level moisture/higher MLCAPE. The recent 00z DDC sounding sampled the downstream environment well and shows nearly 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and elongated hodographs supporting 45 knots of effective bulk shear. This thermodynamic/kinematic environment should support further intensification/organization as the developing MCS pushes east/southeast through the late evening/overnight hours with an attendant threat for severe winds. Downstream, additional development along the effective warm frontal zone is expected in the coming hours as the nocturnal jet strengthens over north-central OK. Thunderstorms developing within this regime will pose a threat for severe gusts as well as large hail. ...Southern to southeast WI... An MCV that developed across eastern IA late this afternoon continues to push northeast into southwest WI as of 01z. GOES imagery and lightning data have shown a slight uptick in intensity over the past hour, and RAP mesoanalysis estimates show meager recovery of low-level moisture/MLCAPE downstream of the MCV. Additionally, the 00z GRB sounding sampled 30-40 knot flow between 700 mb to 400 mb, suggesting that adequate deep-layer shear is in place to support some storm organization if the intensification trend can continue. That said, the window for any severe threat may be limited to the next few hours before nocturnal cooling begins to increase low-level inhibition. ...Southeast AZ... Isolated thunderstorms continue to percolate within the higher terrain of southeast AZ. While much of this activity has struggled to move off the terrain, latest CAM guidance suggests storms may begin to spread south as the mid-level perturbation passes to the northeast. With a hot/dry and deeply mixed environment still in place across southern/southeast AZ (e.g. the recent 00z TUS sounding), a few damaging to severe wind gusts will remain possible prior to the onset of nocturnal cooling in a few hours. ..Moore.. 08/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central/southern Plains tonight, with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. ...Synopsis... Latest water-vapor imagery shows a pronounced mid-level perturbation overspreading the central High Plains. Thunderstorm coverage has increase from western NE southward to eastern NM over the past several hours in response to increasing ascent over a buoyant air mass. Additionally, thunderstorm development over the past several hours has been focused along a residual frontal zone from north-central OK into southwest MO. Through the remainder of the night, thunderstorm activity (and most of the appreciable severe threat) will be focused across the central High Plains to the southern Plains as thunderstorms migrate out of eastern CO and develop along the frontal zone. ...Eastern CO to southwest KS/northwest OK... A band of convection across east-central CO has recently shown signs of re-intensification over the past 30-60 minutes after a temporary weakening phase - likely caused by the band impinging on richer low-level moisture/higher MLCAPE. The recent 00z DDC sounding sampled the downstream environment well and shows nearly 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and elongated hodographs supporting 45 knots of effective bulk shear. This thermodynamic/kinematic environment should support further intensification/organization as the developing MCS pushes east/southeast through the late evening/overnight hours with an attendant threat for severe winds. Downstream, additional development along the effective warm frontal zone is expected in the coming hours as the nocturnal jet strengthens over north-central OK. Thunderstorms developing within this regime will pose a threat for severe gusts as well as large hail. ...Southern to southeast WI... An MCV that developed across eastern IA late this afternoon continues to push northeast into southwest WI as of 01z. GOES imagery and lightning data have shown a slight uptick in intensity over the past hour, and RAP mesoanalysis estimates show meager recovery of low-level moisture/MLCAPE downstream of the MCV. Additionally, the 00z GRB sounding sampled 30-40 knot flow between 700 mb to 400 mb, suggesting that adequate deep-layer shear is in place to support some storm organization if the intensification trend can continue. That said, the window for any severe threat may be limited to the next few hours before nocturnal cooling begins to increase low-level inhibition. ...Southeast AZ... Isolated thunderstorms continue to percolate within the higher terrain of southeast AZ. While much of this activity has struggled to move off the terrain, latest CAM guidance suggests storms may begin to spread south as the mid-level perturbation passes to the northeast. With a hot/dry and deeply mixed environment still in place across southern/southeast AZ (e.g. the recent 00z TUS sounding), a few damaging to severe wind gusts will remain possible prior to the onset of nocturnal cooling in a few hours. ..Moore.. 08/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central/southern Plains tonight, with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. ...Synopsis... Latest water-vapor imagery shows a pronounced mid-level perturbation overspreading the central High Plains. Thunderstorm coverage has increase from western NE southward to eastern NM over the past several hours in response to increasing ascent over a buoyant air mass. Additionally, thunderstorm development over the past several hours has been focused along a residual frontal zone from north-central OK into southwest MO. Through the remainder of the night, thunderstorm activity (and most of the appreciable severe threat) will be focused across the central High Plains to the southern Plains as thunderstorms migrate out of eastern CO and develop along the frontal zone. ...Eastern CO to southwest KS/northwest OK... A band of convection across east-central CO has recently shown signs of re-intensification over the past 30-60 minutes after a temporary weakening phase - likely caused by the band impinging on richer low-level moisture/higher MLCAPE. The recent 00z DDC sounding sampled the downstream environment well and shows nearly 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and elongated hodographs supporting 45 knots of effective bulk shear. This thermodynamic/kinematic environment should support further intensification/organization as the developing MCS pushes east/southeast through the late evening/overnight hours with an attendant threat for severe winds. Downstream, additional development along the effective warm frontal zone is expected in the coming hours as the nocturnal jet strengthens over north-central OK. Thunderstorms developing within this regime will pose a threat for severe gusts as well as large hail. ...Southern to southeast WI... An MCV that developed across eastern IA late this afternoon continues to push northeast into southwest WI as of 01z. GOES imagery and lightning data have shown a slight uptick in intensity over the past hour, and RAP mesoanalysis estimates show meager recovery of low-level moisture/MLCAPE downstream of the MCV. Additionally, the 00z GRB sounding sampled 30-40 knot flow between 700 mb to 400 mb, suggesting that adequate deep-layer shear is in place to support some storm organization if the intensification trend can continue. That said, the window for any severe threat may be limited to the next few hours before nocturnal cooling begins to increase low-level inhibition. ...Southeast AZ... Isolated thunderstorms continue to percolate within the higher terrain of southeast AZ. While much of this activity has struggled to move off the terrain, latest CAM guidance suggests storms may begin to spread south as the mid-level perturbation passes to the northeast. With a hot/dry and deeply mixed environment still in place across southern/southeast AZ (e.g. the recent 00z TUS sounding), a few damaging to severe wind gusts will remain possible prior to the onset of nocturnal cooling in a few hours. ..Moore.. 08/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central/southern Plains tonight, with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. ...Synopsis... Latest water-vapor imagery shows a pronounced mid-level perturbation overspreading the central High Plains. Thunderstorm coverage has increase from western NE southward to eastern NM over the past several hours in response to increasing ascent over a buoyant air mass. Additionally, thunderstorm development over the past several hours has been focused along a residual frontal zone from north-central OK into southwest MO. Through the remainder of the night, thunderstorm activity (and most of the appreciable severe threat) will be focused across the central High Plains to the southern Plains as thunderstorms migrate out of eastern CO and develop along the frontal zone. ...Eastern CO to southwest KS/northwest OK... A band of convection across east-central CO has recently shown signs of re-intensification over the past 30-60 minutes after a temporary weakening phase - likely caused by the band impinging on richer low-level moisture/higher MLCAPE. The recent 00z DDC sounding sampled the downstream environment well and shows nearly 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and elongated hodographs supporting 45 knots of effective bulk shear. This thermodynamic/kinematic environment should support further intensification/organization as the developing MCS pushes east/southeast through the late evening/overnight hours with an attendant threat for severe winds. Downstream, additional development along the effective warm frontal zone is expected in the coming hours as the nocturnal jet strengthens over north-central OK. Thunderstorms developing within this regime will pose a threat for severe gusts as well as large hail. ...Southern to southeast WI... An MCV that developed across eastern IA late this afternoon continues to push northeast into southwest WI as of 01z. GOES imagery and lightning data have shown a slight uptick in intensity over the past hour, and RAP mesoanalysis estimates show meager recovery of low-level moisture/MLCAPE downstream of the MCV. Additionally, the 00z GRB sounding sampled 30-40 knot flow between 700 mb to 400 mb, suggesting that adequate deep-layer shear is in place to support some storm organization if the intensification trend can continue. That said, the window for any severe threat may be limited to the next few hours before nocturnal cooling begins to increase low-level inhibition. ...Southeast AZ... Isolated thunderstorms continue to percolate within the higher terrain of southeast AZ. While much of this activity has struggled to move off the terrain, latest CAM guidance suggests storms may begin to spread south as the mid-level perturbation passes to the northeast. With a hot/dry and deeply mixed environment still in place across southern/southeast AZ (e.g. the recent 00z TUS sounding), a few damaging to severe wind gusts will remain possible prior to the onset of nocturnal cooling in a few hours. ..Moore.. 08/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central/southern Plains tonight, with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. ...Synopsis... Latest water-vapor imagery shows a pronounced mid-level perturbation overspreading the central High Plains. Thunderstorm coverage has increase from western NE southward to eastern NM over the past several hours in response to increasing ascent over a buoyant air mass. Additionally, thunderstorm development over the past several hours has been focused along a residual frontal zone from north-central OK into southwest MO. Through the remainder of the night, thunderstorm activity (and most of the appreciable severe threat) will be focused across the central High Plains to the southern Plains as thunderstorms migrate out of eastern CO and develop along the frontal zone. ...Eastern CO to southwest KS/northwest OK... A band of convection across east-central CO has recently shown signs of re-intensification over the past 30-60 minutes after a temporary weakening phase - likely caused by the band impinging on richer low-level moisture/higher MLCAPE. The recent 00z DDC sounding sampled the downstream environment well and shows nearly 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and elongated hodographs supporting 45 knots of effective bulk shear. This thermodynamic/kinematic environment should support further intensification/organization as the developing MCS pushes east/southeast through the late evening/overnight hours with an attendant threat for severe winds. Downstream, additional development along the effective warm frontal zone is expected in the coming hours as the nocturnal jet strengthens over north-central OK. Thunderstorms developing within this regime will pose a threat for severe gusts as well as large hail. ...Southern to southeast WI... An MCV that developed across eastern IA late this afternoon continues to push northeast into southwest WI as of 01z. GOES imagery and lightning data have shown a slight uptick in intensity over the past hour, and RAP mesoanalysis estimates show meager recovery of low-level moisture/MLCAPE downstream of the MCV. Additionally, the 00z GRB sounding sampled 30-40 knot flow between 700 mb to 400 mb, suggesting that adequate deep-layer shear is in place to support some storm organization if the intensification trend can continue. That said, the window for any severe threat may be limited to the next few hours before nocturnal cooling begins to increase low-level inhibition. ...Southeast AZ... Isolated thunderstorms continue to percolate within the higher terrain of southeast AZ. While much of this activity has struggled to move off the terrain, latest CAM guidance suggests storms may begin to spread south as the mid-level perturbation passes to the northeast. With a hot/dry and deeply mixed environment still in place across southern/southeast AZ (e.g. the recent 00z TUS sounding), a few damaging to severe wind gusts will remain possible prior to the onset of nocturnal cooling in a few hours. ..Moore.. 08/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central/southern Plains tonight, with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. ...Synopsis... Latest water-vapor imagery shows a pronounced mid-level perturbation overspreading the central High Plains. Thunderstorm coverage has increase from western NE southward to eastern NM over the past several hours in response to increasing ascent over a buoyant air mass. Additionally, thunderstorm development over the past several hours has been focused along a residual frontal zone from north-central OK into southwest MO. Through the remainder of the night, thunderstorm activity (and most of the appreciable severe threat) will be focused across the central High Plains to the southern Plains as thunderstorms migrate out of eastern CO and develop along the frontal zone. ...Eastern CO to southwest KS/northwest OK... A band of convection across east-central CO has recently shown signs of re-intensification over the past 30-60 minutes after a temporary weakening phase - likely caused by the band impinging on richer low-level moisture/higher MLCAPE. The recent 00z DDC sounding sampled the downstream environment well and shows nearly 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and elongated hodographs supporting 45 knots of effective bulk shear. This thermodynamic/kinematic environment should support further intensification/organization as the developing MCS pushes east/southeast through the late evening/overnight hours with an attendant threat for severe winds. Downstream, additional development along the effective warm frontal zone is expected in the coming hours as the nocturnal jet strengthens over north-central OK. Thunderstorms developing within this regime will pose a threat for severe gusts as well as large hail. ...Southern to southeast WI... An MCV that developed across eastern IA late this afternoon continues to push northeast into southwest WI as of 01z. GOES imagery and lightning data have shown a slight uptick in intensity over the past hour, and RAP mesoanalysis estimates show meager recovery of low-level moisture/MLCAPE downstream of the MCV. Additionally, the 00z GRB sounding sampled 30-40 knot flow between 700 mb to 400 mb, suggesting that adequate deep-layer shear is in place to support some storm organization if the intensification trend can continue. That said, the window for any severe threat may be limited to the next few hours before nocturnal cooling begins to increase low-level inhibition. ...Southeast AZ... Isolated thunderstorms continue to percolate within the higher terrain of southeast AZ. While much of this activity has struggled to move off the terrain, latest CAM guidance suggests storms may begin to spread south as the mid-level perturbation passes to the northeast. With a hot/dry and deeply mixed environment still in place across southern/southeast AZ (e.g. the recent 00z TUS sounding), a few damaging to severe wind gusts will remain possible prior to the onset of nocturnal cooling in a few hours. ..Moore.. 08/11/2025 Read more

MD 1925 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1925 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Areas affected...Central High Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 102342Z - 110115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will spread east with an attendant risk for damaging winds and large hail. Severe thunderstorm watch will likely be issued. DISCUSSION...Short-wave trough is digging southeast across western CO early this evening. Scattered robust convection has developed ahead of this feature across the High Plains from southeast WY, eastern CO, and northeast NM. This activity is spreading east within a favorable upslope environment characterized by ample buoyancy and modest mid-level flow. While LLJ is not expected to be particularly strong across western KS this evening, favorable storm inflow suggests ongoing activity may continue to grow upscale as it spreads east. While a few supercells are expected, upscale growth may lead to a larger complex that should generate wind along the leading squall line. ..Darrow/Guyer.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB... LAT...LON 36700226 40480199 40490022 36959966 36700226 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0585 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 585 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..08/11/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...ABQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 585 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-009-011-013-014-017-025-031-035-039-041-055-061-063- 069-071-073-075-087-089-095-099-101-115-119-121-123-125- 110140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE BACA BENT BOULDER BROOMFIELD CHEYENNE CROWLEY DENVER DOUGLAS ELBERT EL PASO HUERFANO KIOWA KIT CARSON LARIMER LAS ANIMAS LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN OTERO PHILLIPS PROWERS PUEBLO SEDGWICK TELLER WASHINGTON WELD YUMA KSC023-110140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE Read more

WW 0585 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 585 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..08/11/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...ABQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 585 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-009-011-013-014-017-025-031-035-039-041-055-061-063- 069-071-073-075-087-089-095-099-101-115-119-121-123-125- 110140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE BACA BENT BOULDER BROOMFIELD CHEYENNE CROWLEY DENVER DOUGLAS ELBERT EL PASO HUERFANO KIOWA KIT CARSON LARIMER LAS ANIMAS LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN OTERO PHILLIPS PROWERS PUEBLO SEDGWICK TELLER WASHINGTON WELD YUMA KSC023-110140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE Read more

WW 0585 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 585 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..08/11/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...ABQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 585 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-009-011-013-014-017-025-031-035-039-041-055-061-063- 069-071-073-075-087-089-095-099-101-115-119-121-123-125- 110140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE BACA BENT BOULDER BROOMFIELD CHEYENNE CROWLEY DENVER DOUGLAS ELBERT EL PASO HUERFANO KIOWA KIT CARSON LARIMER LAS ANIMAS LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN OTERO PHILLIPS PROWERS PUEBLO SEDGWICK TELLER WASHINGTON WELD YUMA KSC023-110140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE Read more

WW 0585 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 585 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..08/11/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...ABQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 585 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-009-011-013-014-017-025-031-035-039-041-055-061-063- 069-071-073-075-087-089-095-099-101-115-119-121-123-125- 110140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE BACA BENT BOULDER BROOMFIELD CHEYENNE CROWLEY DENVER DOUGLAS ELBERT EL PASO HUERFANO KIOWA KIT CARSON LARIMER LAS ANIMAS LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN OTERO PHILLIPS PROWERS PUEBLO SEDGWICK TELLER WASHINGTON WELD YUMA KSC023-110140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE Read more

WW 0585 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 585 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..08/11/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...ABQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 585 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-009-011-013-014-017-025-031-035-039-041-055-061-063- 069-071-073-075-087-089-095-099-101-115-119-121-123-125- 110140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE BACA BENT BOULDER BROOMFIELD CHEYENNE CROWLEY DENVER DOUGLAS ELBERT EL PASO HUERFANO KIOWA KIT CARSON LARIMER LAS ANIMAS LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN OTERO PHILLIPS PROWERS PUEBLO SEDGWICK TELLER WASHINGTON WELD YUMA KSC023-110140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE Read more

WW 585 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE NM 101815Z - 110200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 585 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado Northwest Kansas Southwest Nebraska Northeast New Mexico * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 1215 PM until 800 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify through the afternoon across much of eastern Colorado. A few supercells are expected, capable of large hail and damaging winds. An isolated tornado is possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north northwest of Akron CO to 50 miles southeast of Trinidad CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28030. ...Hart Read more

MD 1924 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST KS...SOUTHWEST MO...FAR NORTHEAST OK
Mesoscale Discussion 1924 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0509 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Areas affected...Southeast KS...southwest MO...far northeast OK Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 102209Z - 110015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong to potentially severe storms may develop into early evening. DISCUSSION...Storm initiation appears to be underway across southeast KS late this afternoon, in the vicinity of a surface boundary. Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg) will support potential for vigorous updrafts. Deep-layer flow is relatively modest, though veering wind profiles near/north of the boundary are resulting in effective SRH of around 100 m2/s, and at least transient storm organization will be possible given the magnitude of instability. A threat for isolated large hail and strong/damaging gusts could accompany the strongest storms, and a tornado cannot be ruled out given the potential for storm/boundary interactions. There may be a tendency for storms to quickly become outflow dominant within the rather weak flow regime, which could limit the longevity of individual storms and keep the severe threat relatively isolated. Initial storms may remain focused across southeast KS and southwest MO, but guidance generally suggests potential for backbuilding toward south-central KS and far north-central OK with time this evening, as low-level warm advection gradually increases near/north of the boundary within a strongly unstable and weakly capped environment. ..Dean/Guyer.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 36739750 36659816 37219832 37839798 38439614 38469336 38469249 37759226 37189395 36899552 36799687 36739750 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 1925 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1925 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Areas affected...Central High Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 102342Z - 110115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will spread east with an attendant risk for damaging winds and large hail. Severe thunderstorm watch will likely be issued. DISCUSSION...Short-wave trough is digging southeast across western CO early this evening. Scattered robust convection has developed ahead of this feature across the High Plains from southeast WY, eastern CO, and northeast NM. This activity is spreading east within a favorable upslope environment characterized by ample buoyancy and modest mid-level flow. While LLJ is not expected to be particularly strong across western KS this evening, favorable storm inflow suggests ongoing activity may continue to grow upscale as it spreads east. While a few supercells are expected, upscale growth may lead to a larger complex that should generate wind along the leading squall line. ..Darrow/Guyer.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB... LAT...LON 36700226 40480199 40490022 36959966 36700226 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more