Aggregator

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 11 2025 695 WTPZ24 KNHC 111431 TCMEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025 1500 UTC MON AUG 11 2025 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 119.6W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 119.6W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 119.1W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 23.4N 121.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 23.5N 123.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 119.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON IVO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BERG

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may pose some risk for severe winds and hail across parts of the southern Plains, and separately from North Dakota into northern Minnesota, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... Convection has generally weakened this morning across eastern KS, with a outflow reinforced front advancing southward across the southern High Plains. This boundary is forecast to stall through the morning and early afternoon, and it will likely serve as a focus for renewed thunderstorm development later today. The southern extent of upper troughing that exists over much of the Plains is forecast to advance eastward across the southern High Plains this afternoon. Initial development over the higher terrain of north-central into northeast NM should occur in a modest low-level upslope flow regime, with steep lapse rates aloft contributing to moderate instability. Weak low-level winds will gradually veer to west-northwesterly and modestly strengthen with height through mid/upper levels, supporting modest deep-layer shear and some updraft organization. Isolated severe hail may occur with initially more cellular development across the southern High Plains, before some clustering potentially occurs late this afternoon/evening farther east into the TX Panhandle and northwest TX with more of a wind threat. While deep-layer shear will likely remain weak farther east across OK, the front/outflow boundary should aid in at least scattered thunderstorms developing with moderate to locally strong instability amid ample daytime heating. Isolated damaging winds via strong downbursts and marginally severe hail appear possible with the stronger cores given seasonably cool temperatures aloft (around -10C at 500 mb with the 12Z OUN observed sounding), and the Marginal Risk has been expanded eastward for this possibility. ...North Dakota into Northern Minnesota... Within upper troughing already established over the northern/central Plains and central Canada, a mid-level shortwave trough and related surface cold front are forecast to move east-southeastward over ND and northern MN through the period. Modest low-level moisture characterized by mid 50s to perhaps low 60s surface dewpoints should be present ahead of the front across these areas. Diurnal heating and modestly steepened lapse rates aloft should aid in the development of weak instability this afternoon. Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage along/ahead of the front this afternoon/evening as they spread eastward over parts of ND into northern MN. The stronger cells may produce marginally severe hail, with sufficient deep-layer shear present for some convective organization. With time, some clustering/upscale growth along the front appears probable, with isolated strong to severe gusts possible. The lack of stronger instability should tend to temper the overall severe threat. ...Missouri/Iowa... An MCV generated by overnight/early morning convection across the southern/central Plains should develop northeastward into parts of northern MO and IA by this afternoon. It remains unclear whether sufficient instability to support robust thunderstorms will be able to develop today ahead of this feature given ongoing convection and cloud debris. Regardless, some enhancement to the low/mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear could support updraft organization if surface-based thunderstorms can develop. Given the continued uncertainty regarding this potential, have held off on inclusion of low severe probabilities across this region with this update. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 08/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may pose some risk for severe winds and hail across parts of the southern Plains, and separately from North Dakota into northern Minnesota, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... Convection has generally weakened this morning across eastern KS, with a outflow reinforced front advancing southward across the southern High Plains. This boundary is forecast to stall through the morning and early afternoon, and it will likely serve as a focus for renewed thunderstorm development later today. The southern extent of upper troughing that exists over much of the Plains is forecast to advance eastward across the southern High Plains this afternoon. Initial development over the higher terrain of north-central into northeast NM should occur in a modest low-level upslope flow regime, with steep lapse rates aloft contributing to moderate instability. Weak low-level winds will gradually veer to west-northwesterly and modestly strengthen with height through mid/upper levels, supporting modest deep-layer shear and some updraft organization. Isolated severe hail may occur with initially more cellular development across the southern High Plains, before some clustering potentially occurs late this afternoon/evening farther east into the TX Panhandle and northwest TX with more of a wind threat. While deep-layer shear will likely remain weak farther east across OK, the front/outflow boundary should aid in at least scattered thunderstorms developing with moderate to locally strong instability amid ample daytime heating. Isolated damaging winds via strong downbursts and marginally severe hail appear possible with the stronger cores given seasonably cool temperatures aloft (around -10C at 500 mb with the 12Z OUN observed sounding), and the Marginal Risk has been expanded eastward for this possibility. ...North Dakota into Northern Minnesota... Within upper troughing already established over the northern/central Plains and central Canada, a mid-level shortwave trough and related surface cold front are forecast to move east-southeastward over ND and northern MN through the period. Modest low-level moisture characterized by mid 50s to perhaps low 60s surface dewpoints should be present ahead of the front across these areas. Diurnal heating and modestly steepened lapse rates aloft should aid in the development of weak instability this afternoon. Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage along/ahead of the front this afternoon/evening as they spread eastward over parts of ND into northern MN. The stronger cells may produce marginally severe hail, with sufficient deep-layer shear present for some convective organization. With time, some clustering/upscale growth along the front appears probable, with isolated strong to severe gusts possible. The lack of stronger instability should tend to temper the overall severe threat. ...Missouri/Iowa... An MCV generated by overnight/early morning convection across the southern/central Plains should develop northeastward into parts of northern MO and IA by this afternoon. It remains unclear whether sufficient instability to support robust thunderstorms will be able to develop today ahead of this feature given ongoing convection and cloud debris. Regardless, some enhancement to the low/mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear could support updraft organization if surface-based thunderstorms can develop. Given the continued uncertainty regarding this potential, have held off on inclusion of low severe probabilities across this region with this update. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 08/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may pose some risk for severe winds and hail across parts of the southern Plains, and separately from North Dakota into northern Minnesota, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... Convection has generally weakened this morning across eastern KS, with a outflow reinforced front advancing southward across the southern High Plains. This boundary is forecast to stall through the morning and early afternoon, and it will likely serve as a focus for renewed thunderstorm development later today. The southern extent of upper troughing that exists over much of the Plains is forecast to advance eastward across the southern High Plains this afternoon. Initial development over the higher terrain of north-central into northeast NM should occur in a modest low-level upslope flow regime, with steep lapse rates aloft contributing to moderate instability. Weak low-level winds will gradually veer to west-northwesterly and modestly strengthen with height through mid/upper levels, supporting modest deep-layer shear and some updraft organization. Isolated severe hail may occur with initially more cellular development across the southern High Plains, before some clustering potentially occurs late this afternoon/evening farther east into the TX Panhandle and northwest TX with more of a wind threat. While deep-layer shear will likely remain weak farther east across OK, the front/outflow boundary should aid in at least scattered thunderstorms developing with moderate to locally strong instability amid ample daytime heating. Isolated damaging winds via strong downbursts and marginally severe hail appear possible with the stronger cores given seasonably cool temperatures aloft (around -10C at 500 mb with the 12Z OUN observed sounding), and the Marginal Risk has been expanded eastward for this possibility. ...North Dakota into Northern Minnesota... Within upper troughing already established over the northern/central Plains and central Canada, a mid-level shortwave trough and related surface cold front are forecast to move east-southeastward over ND and northern MN through the period. Modest low-level moisture characterized by mid 50s to perhaps low 60s surface dewpoints should be present ahead of the front across these areas. Diurnal heating and modestly steepened lapse rates aloft should aid in the development of weak instability this afternoon. Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage along/ahead of the front this afternoon/evening as they spread eastward over parts of ND into northern MN. The stronger cells may produce marginally severe hail, with sufficient deep-layer shear present for some convective organization. With time, some clustering/upscale growth along the front appears probable, with isolated strong to severe gusts possible. The lack of stronger instability should tend to temper the overall severe threat. ...Missouri/Iowa... An MCV generated by overnight/early morning convection across the southern/central Plains should develop northeastward into parts of northern MO and IA by this afternoon. It remains unclear whether sufficient instability to support robust thunderstorms will be able to develop today ahead of this feature given ongoing convection and cloud debris. Regardless, some enhancement to the low/mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear could support updraft organization if surface-based thunderstorms can develop. Given the continued uncertainty regarding this potential, have held off on inclusion of low severe probabilities across this region with this update. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 08/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may pose some risk for severe winds and hail across parts of the southern Plains, and separately from North Dakota into northern Minnesota, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... Convection has generally weakened this morning across eastern KS, with a outflow reinforced front advancing southward across the southern High Plains. This boundary is forecast to stall through the morning and early afternoon, and it will likely serve as a focus for renewed thunderstorm development later today. The southern extent of upper troughing that exists over much of the Plains is forecast to advance eastward across the southern High Plains this afternoon. Initial development over the higher terrain of north-central into northeast NM should occur in a modest low-level upslope flow regime, with steep lapse rates aloft contributing to moderate instability. Weak low-level winds will gradually veer to west-northwesterly and modestly strengthen with height through mid/upper levels, supporting modest deep-layer shear and some updraft organization. Isolated severe hail may occur with initially more cellular development across the southern High Plains, before some clustering potentially occurs late this afternoon/evening farther east into the TX Panhandle and northwest TX with more of a wind threat. While deep-layer shear will likely remain weak farther east across OK, the front/outflow boundary should aid in at least scattered thunderstorms developing with moderate to locally strong instability amid ample daytime heating. Isolated damaging winds via strong downbursts and marginally severe hail appear possible with the stronger cores given seasonably cool temperatures aloft (around -10C at 500 mb with the 12Z OUN observed sounding), and the Marginal Risk has been expanded eastward for this possibility. ...North Dakota into Northern Minnesota... Within upper troughing already established over the northern/central Plains and central Canada, a mid-level shortwave trough and related surface cold front are forecast to move east-southeastward over ND and northern MN through the period. Modest low-level moisture characterized by mid 50s to perhaps low 60s surface dewpoints should be present ahead of the front across these areas. Diurnal heating and modestly steepened lapse rates aloft should aid in the development of weak instability this afternoon. Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage along/ahead of the front this afternoon/evening as they spread eastward over parts of ND into northern MN. The stronger cells may produce marginally severe hail, with sufficient deep-layer shear present for some convective organization. With time, some clustering/upscale growth along the front appears probable, with isolated strong to severe gusts possible. The lack of stronger instability should tend to temper the overall severe threat. ...Missouri/Iowa... An MCV generated by overnight/early morning convection across the southern/central Plains should develop northeastward into parts of northern MO and IA by this afternoon. It remains unclear whether sufficient instability to support robust thunderstorms will be able to develop today ahead of this feature given ongoing convection and cloud debris. Regardless, some enhancement to the low/mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear could support updraft organization if surface-based thunderstorms can develop. Given the continued uncertainty regarding this potential, have held off on inclusion of low severe probabilities across this region with this update. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 08/11/2025 Read more

823
ABPZ20 KNHC 111121
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Aug 11 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Henriette, located in the Central Pacific basin several hundred
miles north-northeast of the Hawaiian Islands, and on recently
downgraded Tropical Depression Ivo, located in the Eastern Pacific
basin several hundred miles west of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

WW 0587 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 587 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W END TO 15 SSW ICT TO 30 ENE HUT. ..LEITMAN..08/11/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 587 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC015-019-035-049-073-125-191-111040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY ELK GREENWOOD MONTGOMERY SUMNER OKC047-053-071-103-105-113-117-147-111040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GARFIELD GRANT KAY NOBLE NOWATA OSAGE PAWNEE WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0587 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 587 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W END TO 15 SSW ICT TO 30 ENE HUT. ..LEITMAN..08/11/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 587 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC015-019-035-049-073-125-191-111040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY ELK GREENWOOD MONTGOMERY SUMNER OKC047-053-071-103-105-113-117-147-111040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GARFIELD GRANT KAY NOBLE NOWATA OSAGE PAWNEE WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 587 SEVERE TSTM KS OK 110430Z - 111100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 587 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Kansas Northern Oklahoma * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 1130 PM until 600 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered severe storms will persist near the Kansas/Oklahoma border vicinity into the overnight, including the potential that a developing cluster across southwest Kansas may further organize and intensify with some increase in wind damage potential as it moves eastward. An episodic risk for large hail will also exist. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles west of Medicine Lodge KS to 25 miles north of Bartlesville OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 586... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 28030. ...Guyer Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 11 Aug 2025 08:48:46 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 11 Aug 2025 09:26:59 GMT

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Thursday/D4, a shortwave trough is forecast to move from MT into the northern Plains, with primary upper low well to the north. A surface trough and cold front should push eastward across the Dakotas as well, and extend roughly from MN into NE by Friday/D5 morning. Model spread is high regarding the amount of moisture return and instability, with some models likely over-estimating real instability. In any case, storms appear most likely from ND into northern MN, beneath 50+ kt midlevel westerlies. As such, a 15% severe area has been introduced. This wave will progress east/northeastward on Friday/D5, with a front trailing southwestward perhaps from Lake Superior across WI/MN and toward NE. A moist and unstable air mass will remain near and south of any such boundary, but the position of said boundary may depend on storms from the previous night, or possibly a continuation of such storms. Predictability is therefore low on Friday/D5. Beyond this time frame, it appears the storm track will shift northward into Canada, with upper ridging over much of the CONUS. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Thursday/D4, a shortwave trough is forecast to move from MT into the northern Plains, with primary upper low well to the north. A surface trough and cold front should push eastward across the Dakotas as well, and extend roughly from MN into NE by Friday/D5 morning. Model spread is high regarding the amount of moisture return and instability, with some models likely over-estimating real instability. In any case, storms appear most likely from ND into northern MN, beneath 50+ kt midlevel westerlies. As such, a 15% severe area has been introduced. This wave will progress east/northeastward on Friday/D5, with a front trailing southwestward perhaps from Lake Superior across WI/MN and toward NE. A moist and unstable air mass will remain near and south of any such boundary, but the position of said boundary may depend on storms from the previous night, or possibly a continuation of such storms. Predictability is therefore low on Friday/D5. Beyond this time frame, it appears the storm track will shift northward into Canada, with upper ridging over much of the CONUS. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Thursday/D4, a shortwave trough is forecast to move from MT into the northern Plains, with primary upper low well to the north. A surface trough and cold front should push eastward across the Dakotas as well, and extend roughly from MN into NE by Friday/D5 morning. Model spread is high regarding the amount of moisture return and instability, with some models likely over-estimating real instability. In any case, storms appear most likely from ND into northern MN, beneath 50+ kt midlevel westerlies. As such, a 15% severe area has been introduced. This wave will progress east/northeastward on Friday/D5, with a front trailing southwestward perhaps from Lake Superior across WI/MN and toward NE. A moist and unstable air mass will remain near and south of any such boundary, but the position of said boundary may depend on storms from the previous night, or possibly a continuation of such storms. Predictability is therefore low on Friday/D5. Beyond this time frame, it appears the storm track will shift northward into Canada, with upper ridging over much of the CONUS. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Thursday/D4, a shortwave trough is forecast to move from MT into the northern Plains, with primary upper low well to the north. A surface trough and cold front should push eastward across the Dakotas as well, and extend roughly from MN into NE by Friday/D5 morning. Model spread is high regarding the amount of moisture return and instability, with some models likely over-estimating real instability. In any case, storms appear most likely from ND into northern MN, beneath 50+ kt midlevel westerlies. As such, a 15% severe area has been introduced. This wave will progress east/northeastward on Friday/D5, with a front trailing southwestward perhaps from Lake Superior across WI/MN and toward NE. A moist and unstable air mass will remain near and south of any such boundary, but the position of said boundary may depend on storms from the previous night, or possibly a continuation of such storms. Predictability is therefore low on Friday/D5. Beyond this time frame, it appears the storm track will shift northward into Canada, with upper ridging over much of the CONUS. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Thursday/D4, a shortwave trough is forecast to move from MT into the northern Plains, with primary upper low well to the north. A surface trough and cold front should push eastward across the Dakotas as well, and extend roughly from MN into NE by Friday/D5 morning. Model spread is high regarding the amount of moisture return and instability, with some models likely over-estimating real instability. In any case, storms appear most likely from ND into northern MN, beneath 50+ kt midlevel westerlies. As such, a 15% severe area has been introduced. This wave will progress east/northeastward on Friday/D5, with a front trailing southwestward perhaps from Lake Superior across WI/MN and toward NE. A moist and unstable air mass will remain near and south of any such boundary, but the position of said boundary may depend on storms from the previous night, or possibly a continuation of such storms. Predictability is therefore low on Friday/D5. Beyond this time frame, it appears the storm track will shift northward into Canada, with upper ridging over much of the CONUS. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Thursday/D4, a shortwave trough is forecast to move from MT into the northern Plains, with primary upper low well to the north. A surface trough and cold front should push eastward across the Dakotas as well, and extend roughly from MN into NE by Friday/D5 morning. Model spread is high regarding the amount of moisture return and instability, with some models likely over-estimating real instability. In any case, storms appear most likely from ND into northern MN, beneath 50+ kt midlevel westerlies. As such, a 15% severe area has been introduced. This wave will progress east/northeastward on Friday/D5, with a front trailing southwestward perhaps from Lake Superior across WI/MN and toward NE. A moist and unstable air mass will remain near and south of any such boundary, but the position of said boundary may depend on storms from the previous night, or possibly a continuation of such storms. Predictability is therefore low on Friday/D5. Beyond this time frame, it appears the storm track will shift northward into Canada, with upper ridging over much of the CONUS. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Thursday/D4, a shortwave trough is forecast to move from MT into the northern Plains, with primary upper low well to the north. A surface trough and cold front should push eastward across the Dakotas as well, and extend roughly from MN into NE by Friday/D5 morning. Model spread is high regarding the amount of moisture return and instability, with some models likely over-estimating real instability. In any case, storms appear most likely from ND into northern MN, beneath 50+ kt midlevel westerlies. As such, a 15% severe area has been introduced. This wave will progress east/northeastward on Friday/D5, with a front trailing southwestward perhaps from Lake Superior across WI/MN and toward NE. A moist and unstable air mass will remain near and south of any such boundary, but the position of said boundary may depend on storms from the previous night, or possibly a continuation of such storms. Predictability is therefore low on Friday/D5. Beyond this time frame, it appears the storm track will shift northward into Canada, with upper ridging over much of the CONUS. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Thursday/D4, a shortwave trough is forecast to move from MT into the northern Plains, with primary upper low well to the north. A surface trough and cold front should push eastward across the Dakotas as well, and extend roughly from MN into NE by Friday/D5 morning. Model spread is high regarding the amount of moisture return and instability, with some models likely over-estimating real instability. In any case, storms appear most likely from ND into northern MN, beneath 50+ kt midlevel westerlies. As such, a 15% severe area has been introduced. This wave will progress east/northeastward on Friday/D5, with a front trailing southwestward perhaps from Lake Superior across WI/MN and toward NE. A moist and unstable air mass will remain near and south of any such boundary, but the position of said boundary may depend on storms from the previous night, or possibly a continuation of such storms. Predictability is therefore low on Friday/D5. Beyond this time frame, it appears the storm track will shift northward into Canada, with upper ridging over much of the CONUS. Read more

MD 1928 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 587... FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN KS INTO NORTHERN OK
Mesoscale Discussion 1928 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Areas affected...parts of southern KS into northern OK Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 587... Valid 110743Z - 110915Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 587 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to severe gusts remain possible as storms shift east across southern KS and northern OK the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...A well-organized bowing MCS will continue shifting east the next few hours. The downstream airmass is modestly unstable, with latest mesoanalysis data indicating around 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE. Vertical shear also will remain somewhat modest, but sufficient for organized convection, at least in the short term. Measured severe gusts in southern KS over the past hour have been in the 60-70 mph range, and this may persist another 1-2 hours given a well defined rear-inflow jet and mature bowing MCS. With time, gradual weakening is expected across southeast KS/northeast OK where earlier and ongoing precipitation ahead of the MCS will likely limit downstream severe, especially east of the I-35 corridor. ..Leitman.. 08/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC... LAT...LON 38359887 38449718 38069608 36689599 36209620 36169874 36369934 37599944 38359887 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 11 Aug 2025 08:48:46 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 11 Aug 2025 08:48:46 GMT