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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... The evolution of an organized cluster of thunderstorms accompanied by strong to severe wind gusts appears possible across parts of central through eastern South Dakota by Wednesday evening. ...Discussion... As a low-amplitude shortwave trough progresses over the northern Rockies, a surface low will develop into southern SK, with a secondary low into western SD late in the day. Southerly low-level winds will develop over the Plains, with increasing 850 mb winds of 40-50 kt overnight from NE into SD. Initially, the air mass will be relatively dry. However, a plume of 60s F dewpoints will materialize across the mid MO Valley, with strong heating over the High Plains a near the surface trough. Storms may develop near 00Z over parts of SD near the Black Hills and near the surface low/lapse rate plume, with an initial hail risk. With time, storms should produce strong outflow, with a few severe gusts possible. Due to limited moisture, capping will become a mitigating factor after 00Z, and may preclude a more robust MCS. As such, a Marginal Risk remains valid for primarily isolated severe activity withing the broader zone of convection. ..Jewell.. 08/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... The evolution of an organized cluster of thunderstorms accompanied by strong to severe wind gusts appears possible across parts of central through eastern South Dakota by Wednesday evening. ...Discussion... As a low-amplitude shortwave trough progresses over the northern Rockies, a surface low will develop into southern SK, with a secondary low into western SD late in the day. Southerly low-level winds will develop over the Plains, with increasing 850 mb winds of 40-50 kt overnight from NE into SD. Initially, the air mass will be relatively dry. However, a plume of 60s F dewpoints will materialize across the mid MO Valley, with strong heating over the High Plains a near the surface trough. Storms may develop near 00Z over parts of SD near the Black Hills and near the surface low/lapse rate plume, with an initial hail risk. With time, storms should produce strong outflow, with a few severe gusts possible. Due to limited moisture, capping will become a mitigating factor after 00Z, and may preclude a more robust MCS. As such, a Marginal Risk remains valid for primarily isolated severe activity withing the broader zone of convection. ..Jewell.. 08/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST...AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the upper Great Lakes region. Storms may be accompanied by at least some risk for severe wind and hail. Gusty winds may also be noted with a few storms over southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico. ...Upper Great Lakes/Midwest... Upper trough, currently located along the Dakotas/MN border, is forecast to advance into the upper Great Lakes by late afternoon. Modest mid-level height falls will overspread WI/MI as a weak surface front settles across the U.P. of MI/WI by peak heating. While buoyancy is not forecast to be that strong, deep-layer shear will increase such that storms that evolve along the boundary during the afternoon will be adequately sheared for at least the potential for organized updrafts. Some supercell potential exists but the main risks appear to be gusty winds and hail. Farther southeast, latest water-vapor imagery depicts a plume of higher PW extending across the southern Plains-MO-southern Lake MI. A few weak embedded disturbances are noted along this corridor which will lift northeast toward lower MI. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this corridor by early afternoon as the boundary layer warms within a weakly capped environment. Although deep-layer flow is not particularly strong, gusty winds could accompany robust convection. ...Southeast AZ/Southwest NM... Strong boundary-layer heating near the international border into northern Mexico should encourage diurnally driven convection over the higher terrain later this afternoon. Storms should be more numerous south of the border, but isolated activity is expected to evolve over southeast AZ/southwest NM and drift slowly within a weak flow regime. While PWs are not particularly high for this time of year, gusty winds could be noted with the most robust convection. ..Darrow/Moore.. 08/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST...AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the upper Great Lakes region. Storms may be accompanied by at least some risk for severe wind and hail. Gusty winds may also be noted with a few storms over southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico. ...Upper Great Lakes/Midwest... Upper trough, currently located along the Dakotas/MN border, is forecast to advance into the upper Great Lakes by late afternoon. Modest mid-level height falls will overspread WI/MI as a weak surface front settles across the U.P. of MI/WI by peak heating. While buoyancy is not forecast to be that strong, deep-layer shear will increase such that storms that evolve along the boundary during the afternoon will be adequately sheared for at least the potential for organized updrafts. Some supercell potential exists but the main risks appear to be gusty winds and hail. Farther southeast, latest water-vapor imagery depicts a plume of higher PW extending across the southern Plains-MO-southern Lake MI. A few weak embedded disturbances are noted along this corridor which will lift northeast toward lower MI. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this corridor by early afternoon as the boundary layer warms within a weakly capped environment. Although deep-layer flow is not particularly strong, gusty winds could accompany robust convection. ...Southeast AZ/Southwest NM... Strong boundary-layer heating near the international border into northern Mexico should encourage diurnally driven convection over the higher terrain later this afternoon. Storms should be more numerous south of the border, but isolated activity is expected to evolve over southeast AZ/southwest NM and drift slowly within a weak flow regime. While PWs are not particularly high for this time of year, gusty winds could be noted with the most robust convection. ..Darrow/Moore.. 08/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST...AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the upper Great Lakes region. Storms may be accompanied by at least some risk for severe wind and hail. Gusty winds may also be noted with a few storms over southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico. ...Upper Great Lakes/Midwest... Upper trough, currently located along the Dakotas/MN border, is forecast to advance into the upper Great Lakes by late afternoon. Modest mid-level height falls will overspread WI/MI as a weak surface front settles across the U.P. of MI/WI by peak heating. While buoyancy is not forecast to be that strong, deep-layer shear will increase such that storms that evolve along the boundary during the afternoon will be adequately sheared for at least the potential for organized updrafts. Some supercell potential exists but the main risks appear to be gusty winds and hail. Farther southeast, latest water-vapor imagery depicts a plume of higher PW extending across the southern Plains-MO-southern Lake MI. A few weak embedded disturbances are noted along this corridor which will lift northeast toward lower MI. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this corridor by early afternoon as the boundary layer warms within a weakly capped environment. Although deep-layer flow is not particularly strong, gusty winds could accompany robust convection. ...Southeast AZ/Southwest NM... Strong boundary-layer heating near the international border into northern Mexico should encourage diurnally driven convection over the higher terrain later this afternoon. Storms should be more numerous south of the border, but isolated activity is expected to evolve over southeast AZ/southwest NM and drift slowly within a weak flow regime. While PWs are not particularly high for this time of year, gusty winds could be noted with the most robust convection. ..Darrow/Moore.. 08/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST...AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the upper Great Lakes region. Storms may be accompanied by at least some risk for severe wind and hail. Gusty winds may also be noted with a few storms over southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico. ...Upper Great Lakes/Midwest... Upper trough, currently located along the Dakotas/MN border, is forecast to advance into the upper Great Lakes by late afternoon. Modest mid-level height falls will overspread WI/MI as a weak surface front settles across the U.P. of MI/WI by peak heating. While buoyancy is not forecast to be that strong, deep-layer shear will increase such that storms that evolve along the boundary during the afternoon will be adequately sheared for at least the potential for organized updrafts. Some supercell potential exists but the main risks appear to be gusty winds and hail. Farther southeast, latest water-vapor imagery depicts a plume of higher PW extending across the southern Plains-MO-southern Lake MI. A few weak embedded disturbances are noted along this corridor which will lift northeast toward lower MI. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this corridor by early afternoon as the boundary layer warms within a weakly capped environment. Although deep-layer flow is not particularly strong, gusty winds could accompany robust convection. ...Southeast AZ/Southwest NM... Strong boundary-layer heating near the international border into northern Mexico should encourage diurnally driven convection over the higher terrain later this afternoon. Storms should be more numerous south of the border, but isolated activity is expected to evolve over southeast AZ/southwest NM and drift slowly within a weak flow regime. While PWs are not particularly high for this time of year, gusty winds could be noted with the most robust convection. ..Darrow/Moore.. 08/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST...AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the upper Great Lakes region. Storms may be accompanied by at least some risk for severe wind and hail. Gusty winds may also be noted with a few storms over southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico. ...Upper Great Lakes/Midwest... Upper trough, currently located along the Dakotas/MN border, is forecast to advance into the upper Great Lakes by late afternoon. Modest mid-level height falls will overspread WI/MI as a weak surface front settles across the U.P. of MI/WI by peak heating. While buoyancy is not forecast to be that strong, deep-layer shear will increase such that storms that evolve along the boundary during the afternoon will be adequately sheared for at least the potential for organized updrafts. Some supercell potential exists but the main risks appear to be gusty winds and hail. Farther southeast, latest water-vapor imagery depicts a plume of higher PW extending across the southern Plains-MO-southern Lake MI. A few weak embedded disturbances are noted along this corridor which will lift northeast toward lower MI. Scattered thunderstorms should develop along this corridor by early afternoon as the boundary layer warms within a weakly capped environment. Although deep-layer flow is not particularly strong, gusty winds could accompany robust convection. ...Southeast AZ/Southwest NM... Strong boundary-layer heating near the international border into northern Mexico should encourage diurnally driven convection over the higher terrain later this afternoon. Storms should be more numerous south of the border, but isolated activity is expected to evolve over southeast AZ/southwest NM and drift slowly within a weak flow regime. While PWs are not particularly high for this time of year, gusty winds could be noted with the most robust convection. ..Darrow/Moore.. 08/12/2025 Read more

255
ABPZ20 KNHC 120523
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Aug 11 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Henriette, located in the Central Pacific basin several hundred
miles north of the Hawaiian Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

MD 1934 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1934 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0957 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Areas affected...Far northern Missouri into southeast Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 120257Z - 120500Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A pair of supercells that has developed over southeast Iowa may pose a brief tornado and isolated hail risk over the next couple of hours. Additional supercell development is possible, but the overall severe threat is expected to remain limited spatially and temporally. DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, a pair of supercells has developed across southeast IA in the vicinity of a decaying MCV emanating out of northern MO. This activity is on the northern fringe of an axis of warm low-level conditions/weakly inhibited MLCAPE and is on the periphery of a swath of 30-35 knot mid-level winds associated with the MCV. Based on recent mesoanalysis estimates, this spatial window of favorable MLCAPE and adequate deep-layer wind shear appears relatively small with weaker CAPE/greater inhibition with northward extent and weaker shear with southward extent. However, these cells may linger within this window for the next couple of hours. While some low-level veering is noted via surface observations and recent upper-air analyses/forecast soundings, weak wind magnitudes are limiting overall SRH (only around 50-100 m2/s2 effective SRH). This casts uncertainty on the overall tornado potential. Nonetheless, the velocity signatures associated with the supercells suggest organized mesocyclones are present and some brief tornado and hail threat may manifest with these storms prior to stronger nocturnal low-level stabilization later this evening. An additional supercell or two may develop within a weak warm advection regime across far northern MO/southeast IA, but overall coverage of the severe threat is expected to be limited in the absence of stronger forcing for ascent and increasing inhibition with time. ..Moore/Hart.. 08/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX... LAT...LON 41429072 41049083 40719118 40499162 40349207 40329254 40289289 40299324 40379339 40589347 40799342 41019317 41269275 41489233 41689160 41749118 41659083 41429072 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 12 Aug 2025 02:35:55 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 12 Aug 2025 02:35:55 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 12 2025 487 FONT15 KNHC 120233 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025 0300 UTC TUE AUG 12 2025 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) SAINT JOHN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) SABA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SABA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) ST EUSTATIUS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ST EUSTATIUS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 11 2025 081 WTNT45 KNHC 120233 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Erin Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 11 2025 After struggling earlier during the diurnal convective minimum, a large convective burst has formed and persisted over the center of Erin for the past several hours, and a recent GPM microwave pass from 11/2237 UTC confirmed that the low-level center is underneath this burst. The latest subjective intensity estimates range from 35-45 kt, and the objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS have crept up slightly to the 40-45 kt range. The initial intensity is held at 40 kt, which might be a tad conservative. Erin continues moving quickly westward, with the latest motion estimated at 275/18 kt. This general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected over the next 2 to 3 days as the tropical storm is steered by a mid-level subtropical ridge to its north. Towards the end of the forecast period, the ridge should erode some, which would allow Erin to turn toward the west-northwest and gain some latitude. However, there are some differences in the global models as to how significant the weakness in the ridge will be, and this will affect how far north the cyclone gets by day 5. Some of the recent model solutions are a bit farther to the left (or southwest) at the end of the forecast period. The NHC forecast is nudged only very slightly to the left at days 4-5, and now lies slightly to the north of the latest consensus aids. Based on the model spread, the confidence in the track forecast appears to be about average. Erin is expected to remain in low vertical wind shear conditions for the next 3-4 days. The thermodynamic environment is less favorable in the short-term, with sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) around 26-27C, and stable stratocumulus clouds noted just to the west and northwest of Erin. Only slow strengthening is forecast during the next 1 to 2 days until Erin reaches warmer water. A faster rate of intensification is anticipated after that time. The latest NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one, and lies slightly below the intensity consensus for the first 36 h. Thereafter, the NHC intensity forecast is near the middle of the intensity guidance envelope. It is possible that vertical wind shear could increase in 4 to 5 days, but that will depend on where the upper-level ridge is situated in relation to Erin, which is uncertain at this time. KEY MESSAGES: 1. It is still too early to determine what impacts, if any, Erin may bring to the northern Leeward Islands, Bermuda, or the east coast of the United States. As we approach the climatological peak of the hurricane season, it is an opportune time to ensure your preparedness plans are in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 17.6N 32.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 17.4N 35.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 17.2N 38.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 17.1N 42.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 17.4N 45.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 14/1200Z 18.0N 48.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 18.7N 51.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 16/0000Z 20.3N 56.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 17/0000Z 21.9N 61.5W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 11 2025 740 WTNT35 KNHC 120233 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Erin Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 11 2025 ...ERIN MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER THIS WEEK IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 32.3W ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 2020 MI...3255 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erin was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 32.3 West. Erin is moving toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next several days with a gradual slowdown in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next several days, and Erin is expected to become a hurricane later this week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Hagen

...ERIN MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER THIS WEEK IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Aug 11 the center of Erin was located near 17.6, -32.3 with movement W at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 12 2025 291 WTNT25 KNHC 120232 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025 0300 UTC TUE AUG 12 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 32.3W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 32.3W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 31.3W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 17.4N 35.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 17.2N 38.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 17.1N 42.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.4N 45.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.0N 48.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 18.7N 51.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 25SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 20.3N 56.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 90NW. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 21.9N 61.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 110NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 32.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

MD 1932 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL NORTHERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1932 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0725 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Areas affected...Central northern Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 120025Z - 120230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Sporadic damaging winds and severe hail may be possible as a cluster of thunderstorms spreads northeast into a buoyant air mass. DISCUSSION...Over the past several hours a cluster of single-cell and multi-cell thunderstorms has evolved over southwest MO. Most cells have exhibited relatively short duration as a result of poor shear over the region (per the KSGF VWP). Because of this, it has been unclear whether an appreciable severe threat would emerge out of this cluster. However, over the past 30 minutes, MRMS vertical ice data and IR imagery suggests a few deeper cells are approaching severe limits, possibly due to the influence of slightly stronger mid-level winds associated with a passing MCV to the north/northeast. New convective development is anticipated on the north/northeastern fringe of a consolidating cold pool where MLCAPE remains fairly high downstream (2000-2500 J/kg). While this activity will remain on the periphery of the stronger mid-level wind field, deep-layer shear may be enough for a few more prolonged cells with some threat for hail and/or damaging downbursts over the next couple of hours before inhibition begins to substantially increase via nocturnal cooling. While a few instances of severe hail/wind are possible, the overall threat will remain too limited to warrant watch issuance. ..Moore/Hart.. 08/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX... LAT...LON 37709346 37919388 38299401 38679397 40409321 40519272 40369198 40039155 39649130 39229123 38869131 38579143 38339161 37709346 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1933 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1933 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Areas affected...Parts of the TX Panhandle/South Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 120040Z - 120215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A threat for hail and localized severe gusts may spread southeastward through the evening. DISCUSSION...A couple of longer-lived supercells have evolved out of vigorous convection near/north of Amarillo over the last 1-2 hours. The 00Z AMA sounding depicted relatively cool temperatures aloft (around -10 C at 500 mb), moderate buoyancy, and sufficient west-northwesterly midlevel flow for 30-40 kt of effective shear. Large hail and localized severe gusts will continue to pose a threat in the short-term with these cells. Outflow associated the ongoing cells and earlier convection has grown and is moving southeastward toward the southern TX Panhandle and parts of the South Plains. A diffuse surface confluence zone with backed surface winds is located downstream of the ongoing storms and outflow, which could help to maintain a severe threat through the evening. Some modest upscale growth along the outflow cannot be ruled out, though generally weak low-level flow may limit this potential to some extent. Regardless, some uptick in severe-wind potential cannot be ruled out over the next 1-2 hours. ..Dean/Hart.. 08/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 34850216 35210193 35380096 35240020 34829995 34270023 34040103 34440202 34850216 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the southern Plains and the Upper Midwest this evening. ...01z Update... Mid-level flow is turning a bit more northwesterly across the southern High Plains early this evening as upper troughing shifts into the central Plains. Scattered robust convection is currently noted across eastern NM-southern TX-Panhandle into portions of OK. This activity may continue to expand in areal coverage as it propagates southeast into modest low-level southerly inflow, especially given the upper support with the slow-moving upper trough. Gusty winds or hail may continue to be noted with the strongest storms this evening. Farther north across the MN region, notable short-wave trough currently extends from MB into the eastern Dakotas. Latest model guidance suggests 500mb speed max will translate across ND into western MN by 12/12z and this feature should continue to encourage convection along the surface front as it progresses across the Upper Midwest. Isolated hail/wind threat remain possible with the strongest storms. ..Darrow.. 08/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the southern Plains and the Upper Midwest this evening. ...01z Update... Mid-level flow is turning a bit more northwesterly across the southern High Plains early this evening as upper troughing shifts into the central Plains. Scattered robust convection is currently noted across eastern NM-southern TX-Panhandle into portions of OK. This activity may continue to expand in areal coverage as it propagates southeast into modest low-level southerly inflow, especially given the upper support with the slow-moving upper trough. Gusty winds or hail may continue to be noted with the strongest storms this evening. Farther north across the MN region, notable short-wave trough currently extends from MB into the eastern Dakotas. Latest model guidance suggests 500mb speed max will translate across ND into western MN by 12/12z and this feature should continue to encourage convection along the surface front as it progresses across the Upper Midwest. Isolated hail/wind threat remain possible with the strongest storms. ..Darrow.. 08/12/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the southern Plains and the Upper Midwest this evening. ...01z Update... Mid-level flow is turning a bit more northwesterly across the southern High Plains early this evening as upper troughing shifts into the central Plains. Scattered robust convection is currently noted across eastern NM-southern TX-Panhandle into portions of OK. This activity may continue to expand in areal coverage as it propagates southeast into modest low-level southerly inflow, especially given the upper support with the slow-moving upper trough. Gusty winds or hail may continue to be noted with the strongest storms this evening. Farther north across the MN region, notable short-wave trough currently extends from MB into the eastern Dakotas. Latest model guidance suggests 500mb speed max will translate across ND into western MN by 12/12z and this feature should continue to encourage convection along the surface front as it progresses across the Upper Midwest. Isolated hail/wind threat remain possible with the strongest storms. ..Darrow.. 08/12/2025 Read more