Aggregator

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 112319
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Aug 11 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Henriette, located in the Central Pacific basin several hundred
miles north of the Hawaiian Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

000
ABNT20 KNHC 112305
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Erin, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic several
hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands.

Northwestern Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
south-southeast of Nova Scotia, Canada is producing disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity to the west of its center. Some
limited tropical or subtropical development is possible over the
next day or two as the low drifts westward near the relatively warm
waters of the Gulf Stream. By the middle of this week, the system
is expected to move northward over cooler waters, ending its chances
for further tropical development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Central Atlantic:
A weak surface trough of low pressure located over the central
Atlantic is interacting with an upper-level disturbance, producing
scattered disorganized showers. Development of this system is not
expected as it drifts generally northward over the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

Northeastern Gulf:
A surface trough in the north-central Gulf is associated with a
broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. While
development of this system is not anticipated before it moves inland
on Tuesday, locally heavy rainfall could produce flash flooding
across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama, southern
Mississippi and southeastern Louisiana over the next day or so. For
more information on the rainfall hazards related to this system,
please see products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Erin are issued under WMO header
WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. Forecast/Advisories on
Tropical Storm Erin are issued under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and
under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

MD 1930 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1930 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0438 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Areas affected...Eastern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 112138Z - 112345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing across eastern North Dakota and far northwest Minnesota will see some intensification through the evening hours. Severe hail and damaging gusts are possible, but the overall threat should remain too limited to warrant watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is underway across the northern Plains both along a surface cold front traversing the Red River Valley of the North as well as across north-central ND within the post-frontal regime. Recent surface observations shows a narrow plume of higher theta-e air extending ahead of the front towards the Lake of the Woods area. This air mass is supporting MLCAPE values of around 1000-1500 J/kg, which is regionally the best convective air mass. Although 30-35 knot mid-level flow is overspreading the region, the combination of strong frontal forcing and weak off-boundary deep-layer shear components will favor upscale growth across far northwest MN over the next couple of hours. Large hail will be possible within initial cells, but an uptick in the potential for damaging/severe winds is expected through late evening. Marginal mid-level lapse rates and a fairy narrow warm sector should modulate the overall coverage/intensity of convection. Further west, cold temperatures aloft in proximity to an upper trough combined with ascent within the left exit region of a mid-level jet is supporting deep convection over north-central ND. Deep-layer shear appears to be adequate for some storm organization, so a few strong/severe storms, including transient/weak supercells, will be possible within the post-frontal regime. Cooler conditions will limit buoyancy values compared to areas further east, which should also act to hindering overall storm intensity, though a few instances of severe hail are possible. ..Moore/Hart.. 08/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 46289930 46780006 47400064 47850105 48210124 48520119 48810090 48960049 49020021 49089987 49029597 49009552 49079528 49349515 49409502 49399481 49199464 49039454 48859426 48759395 48719372 48649333 48519320 48339320 48009334 46679433 46149515 45809585 45699616 45629660 45679750 45859850 46269913 46289930 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Upper-level troughing will continue across the Pacific Northwest D3/Wednesday, with breezy westerly downslope winds amid dry surface conditions. Moisture will increase through the end of the week, with showers and thunderstorms increasing in coverage. An increase in trends in PW has been noted over the last 24-48 hours, which should promote mostly wetting rainfall. As the western high shifts into the Four Corners Region D3/Wednesday through D7/Sunday, monsoonal moisture will return northward across portions of Arizona and Utah. ...Dry Thunderstorms... With the aforementioned shift of the surface high into the Four Corners region, an increase in wetting rainfall is expected to spread northward across Arizona. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms may be possible initially. On the fringe of this deeper moisture surge, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of far eastern California into central Nevada D3/Wednesday before spreading into portions of southern Idaho by D4/Thursday. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with little monsoon season rainfall and recorded drought conditions. ...Wind/RH... Breezy conditions are expected across the Pacific Northwest as the pattern becomes more progressive, with broad troughing and several shortwave disturbances moving through early to mid-week. The most widespread winds are expected D3/Wednesday, when Elevated to locally Critical conditions are expected across portions of the Columbia River Basin in eastern Washington and Oregon and across southeastern Oregon into southern Idaho. A 40% delineation was maintained across Washington and added across southeastern Oregon/southern Idaho with this outlook to cover this potential. ..Thornton.. 08/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Upper-level troughing will continue across the Pacific Northwest D3/Wednesday, with breezy westerly downslope winds amid dry surface conditions. Moisture will increase through the end of the week, with showers and thunderstorms increasing in coverage. An increase in trends in PW has been noted over the last 24-48 hours, which should promote mostly wetting rainfall. As the western high shifts into the Four Corners Region D3/Wednesday through D7/Sunday, monsoonal moisture will return northward across portions of Arizona and Utah. ...Dry Thunderstorms... With the aforementioned shift of the surface high into the Four Corners region, an increase in wetting rainfall is expected to spread northward across Arizona. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms may be possible initially. On the fringe of this deeper moisture surge, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of far eastern California into central Nevada D3/Wednesday before spreading into portions of southern Idaho by D4/Thursday. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with little monsoon season rainfall and recorded drought conditions. ...Wind/RH... Breezy conditions are expected across the Pacific Northwest as the pattern becomes more progressive, with broad troughing and several shortwave disturbances moving through early to mid-week. The most widespread winds are expected D3/Wednesday, when Elevated to locally Critical conditions are expected across portions of the Columbia River Basin in eastern Washington and Oregon and across southeastern Oregon into southern Idaho. A 40% delineation was maintained across Washington and added across southeastern Oregon/southern Idaho with this outlook to cover this potential. ..Thornton.. 08/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Upper-level troughing will continue across the Pacific Northwest D3/Wednesday, with breezy westerly downslope winds amid dry surface conditions. Moisture will increase through the end of the week, with showers and thunderstorms increasing in coverage. An increase in trends in PW has been noted over the last 24-48 hours, which should promote mostly wetting rainfall. As the western high shifts into the Four Corners Region D3/Wednesday through D7/Sunday, monsoonal moisture will return northward across portions of Arizona and Utah. ...Dry Thunderstorms... With the aforementioned shift of the surface high into the Four Corners region, an increase in wetting rainfall is expected to spread northward across Arizona. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms may be possible initially. On the fringe of this deeper moisture surge, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of far eastern California into central Nevada D3/Wednesday before spreading into portions of southern Idaho by D4/Thursday. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with little monsoon season rainfall and recorded drought conditions. ...Wind/RH... Breezy conditions are expected across the Pacific Northwest as the pattern becomes more progressive, with broad troughing and several shortwave disturbances moving through early to mid-week. The most widespread winds are expected D3/Wednesday, when Elevated to locally Critical conditions are expected across portions of the Columbia River Basin in eastern Washington and Oregon and across southeastern Oregon into southern Idaho. A 40% delineation was maintained across Washington and added across southeastern Oregon/southern Idaho with this outlook to cover this potential. ..Thornton.. 08/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Upper-level troughing will continue across the Pacific Northwest D3/Wednesday, with breezy westerly downslope winds amid dry surface conditions. Moisture will increase through the end of the week, with showers and thunderstorms increasing in coverage. An increase in trends in PW has been noted over the last 24-48 hours, which should promote mostly wetting rainfall. As the western high shifts into the Four Corners Region D3/Wednesday through D7/Sunday, monsoonal moisture will return northward across portions of Arizona and Utah. ...Dry Thunderstorms... With the aforementioned shift of the surface high into the Four Corners region, an increase in wetting rainfall is expected to spread northward across Arizona. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms may be possible initially. On the fringe of this deeper moisture surge, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of far eastern California into central Nevada D3/Wednesday before spreading into portions of southern Idaho by D4/Thursday. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with little monsoon season rainfall and recorded drought conditions. ...Wind/RH... Breezy conditions are expected across the Pacific Northwest as the pattern becomes more progressive, with broad troughing and several shortwave disturbances moving through early to mid-week. The most widespread winds are expected D3/Wednesday, when Elevated to locally Critical conditions are expected across portions of the Columbia River Basin in eastern Washington and Oregon and across southeastern Oregon into southern Idaho. A 40% delineation was maintained across Washington and added across southeastern Oregon/southern Idaho with this outlook to cover this potential. ..Thornton.. 08/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Upper-level troughing will continue across the Pacific Northwest D3/Wednesday, with breezy westerly downslope winds amid dry surface conditions. Moisture will increase through the end of the week, with showers and thunderstorms increasing in coverage. An increase in trends in PW has been noted over the last 24-48 hours, which should promote mostly wetting rainfall. As the western high shifts into the Four Corners Region D3/Wednesday through D7/Sunday, monsoonal moisture will return northward across portions of Arizona and Utah. ...Dry Thunderstorms... With the aforementioned shift of the surface high into the Four Corners region, an increase in wetting rainfall is expected to spread northward across Arizona. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms may be possible initially. On the fringe of this deeper moisture surge, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of far eastern California into central Nevada D3/Wednesday before spreading into portions of southern Idaho by D4/Thursday. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with little monsoon season rainfall and recorded drought conditions. ...Wind/RH... Breezy conditions are expected across the Pacific Northwest as the pattern becomes more progressive, with broad troughing and several shortwave disturbances moving through early to mid-week. The most widespread winds are expected D3/Wednesday, when Elevated to locally Critical conditions are expected across portions of the Columbia River Basin in eastern Washington and Oregon and across southeastern Oregon into southern Idaho. A 40% delineation was maintained across Washington and added across southeastern Oregon/southern Idaho with this outlook to cover this potential. ..Thornton.. 08/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Upper-level troughing will continue across the Pacific Northwest D3/Wednesday, with breezy westerly downslope winds amid dry surface conditions. Moisture will increase through the end of the week, with showers and thunderstorms increasing in coverage. An increase in trends in PW has been noted over the last 24-48 hours, which should promote mostly wetting rainfall. As the western high shifts into the Four Corners Region D3/Wednesday through D7/Sunday, monsoonal moisture will return northward across portions of Arizona and Utah. ...Dry Thunderstorms... With the aforementioned shift of the surface high into the Four Corners region, an increase in wetting rainfall is expected to spread northward across Arizona. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms may be possible initially. On the fringe of this deeper moisture surge, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of far eastern California into central Nevada D3/Wednesday before spreading into portions of southern Idaho by D4/Thursday. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with little monsoon season rainfall and recorded drought conditions. ...Wind/RH... Breezy conditions are expected across the Pacific Northwest as the pattern becomes more progressive, with broad troughing and several shortwave disturbances moving through early to mid-week. The most widespread winds are expected D3/Wednesday, when Elevated to locally Critical conditions are expected across portions of the Columbia River Basin in eastern Washington and Oregon and across southeastern Oregon into southern Idaho. A 40% delineation was maintained across Washington and added across southeastern Oregon/southern Idaho with this outlook to cover this potential. ..Thornton.. 08/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Upper-level troughing will continue across the Pacific Northwest D3/Wednesday, with breezy westerly downslope winds amid dry surface conditions. Moisture will increase through the end of the week, with showers and thunderstorms increasing in coverage. An increase in trends in PW has been noted over the last 24-48 hours, which should promote mostly wetting rainfall. As the western high shifts into the Four Corners Region D3/Wednesday through D7/Sunday, monsoonal moisture will return northward across portions of Arizona and Utah. ...Dry Thunderstorms... With the aforementioned shift of the surface high into the Four Corners region, an increase in wetting rainfall is expected to spread northward across Arizona. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms may be possible initially. On the fringe of this deeper moisture surge, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of far eastern California into central Nevada D3/Wednesday before spreading into portions of southern Idaho by D4/Thursday. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with little monsoon season rainfall and recorded drought conditions. ...Wind/RH... Breezy conditions are expected across the Pacific Northwest as the pattern becomes more progressive, with broad troughing and several shortwave disturbances moving through early to mid-week. The most widespread winds are expected D3/Wednesday, when Elevated to locally Critical conditions are expected across portions of the Columbia River Basin in eastern Washington and Oregon and across southeastern Oregon into southern Idaho. A 40% delineation was maintained across Washington and added across southeastern Oregon/southern Idaho with this outlook to cover this potential. ..Thornton.. 08/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Upper-level troughing will continue across the Pacific Northwest D3/Wednesday, with breezy westerly downslope winds amid dry surface conditions. Moisture will increase through the end of the week, with showers and thunderstorms increasing in coverage. An increase in trends in PW has been noted over the last 24-48 hours, which should promote mostly wetting rainfall. As the western high shifts into the Four Corners Region D3/Wednesday through D7/Sunday, monsoonal moisture will return northward across portions of Arizona and Utah. ...Dry Thunderstorms... With the aforementioned shift of the surface high into the Four Corners region, an increase in wetting rainfall is expected to spread northward across Arizona. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms may be possible initially. On the fringe of this deeper moisture surge, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of far eastern California into central Nevada D3/Wednesday before spreading into portions of southern Idaho by D4/Thursday. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with little monsoon season rainfall and recorded drought conditions. ...Wind/RH... Breezy conditions are expected across the Pacific Northwest as the pattern becomes more progressive, with broad troughing and several shortwave disturbances moving through early to mid-week. The most widespread winds are expected D3/Wednesday, when Elevated to locally Critical conditions are expected across portions of the Columbia River Basin in eastern Washington and Oregon and across southeastern Oregon into southern Idaho. A 40% delineation was maintained across Washington and added across southeastern Oregon/southern Idaho with this outlook to cover this potential. ..Thornton.. 08/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Upper-level troughing will continue across the Pacific Northwest D3/Wednesday, with breezy westerly downslope winds amid dry surface conditions. Moisture will increase through the end of the week, with showers and thunderstorms increasing in coverage. An increase in trends in PW has been noted over the last 24-48 hours, which should promote mostly wetting rainfall. As the western high shifts into the Four Corners Region D3/Wednesday through D7/Sunday, monsoonal moisture will return northward across portions of Arizona and Utah. ...Dry Thunderstorms... With the aforementioned shift of the surface high into the Four Corners region, an increase in wetting rainfall is expected to spread northward across Arizona. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms may be possible initially. On the fringe of this deeper moisture surge, isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across portions of far eastern California into central Nevada D3/Wednesday before spreading into portions of southern Idaho by D4/Thursday. Fuels in these regions are critically dry, with little monsoon season rainfall and recorded drought conditions. ...Wind/RH... Breezy conditions are expected across the Pacific Northwest as the pattern becomes more progressive, with broad troughing and several shortwave disturbances moving through early to mid-week. The most widespread winds are expected D3/Wednesday, when Elevated to locally Critical conditions are expected across portions of the Columbia River Basin in eastern Washington and Oregon and across southeastern Oregon into southern Idaho. A 40% delineation was maintained across Washington and added across southeastern Oregon/southern Idaho with this outlook to cover this potential. ..Thornton.. 08/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1929 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1929 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Areas affected...central Oklahoma into northeast Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 112028Z - 112200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon/evening. DISCUSSION...A slow moving cold front is advancing southeast across Oklahoma. Ahead of this front, temperatures in the low to mid 90s and dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s have yielded 2500 J/kg MLCAPE amid moderately steep mid-level lapse rates (~8 C/km per 12Z OUN RAOB). A remnant MCV can be seen in visible satellite imagery approaching central Oklahoma which will also likely be a focus for stronger storms this afternoon/evening. Very weak shear (~15 knots per TLX/INX VWP) will result in mostly unorganized convection, although a few multicell clusters are possible. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible, but no watch is anticipated. ..Bentley/Smith.. 08/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 34689780 34639801 34639821 34869837 35149833 35379817 35769758 36289664 36679595 37029564 37289538 37359491 37229458 36789454 35929515 35349627 35039676 34789737 34689780 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

Issued at 1100 AM HST Mon Aug 11 2025 ZCZC HFOTCPCP3 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM BULLETIN Hurricane Henriette Advisory Number 31 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082025 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM HST Mon Aug 11 2025 ...HENRIETTE FORECAST TO STILL BE A HURRICANE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.8N 157.8W ABOUT 585 MI...945 KM N OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Henriette was located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 157.8 West. Henriette is moving toward the northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. A turn toward the north-northwest at a slower forward speed is forecast on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible through tonight. Weakening is forecast to begin on Tuesday, with Henriette likely becoming a tropical storm by early Wednesday and then becoming post-tropical by late Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Berg NNNN

...HENRIETTE FORECAST TO STILL BE A HURRICANE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO... As of 11:00 AM HST Mon Aug 11 the center of Henriette was located near 29.8, -157.8 with movement NW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 11 2025 ZCZC HFOTCMCP3 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM HURRICANE HENRIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082025 ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2100 UTC MON AUG 11 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 157.8W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 4 M SEAS....130NE 100SE 80SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 157.8W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 157.2W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 31.4N 159.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 33.3N 162.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 35.2N 164.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 37.3N 167.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 39.4N 169.4W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 41.4N 170.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 43.8N 169.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.8N 157.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG NNNN

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...AND UPPER MIDWEST...... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern Plains, lower Missouri Valley, and the Upper Midwest, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... Other than updates to the general thunderstorm forecast, the outlook remains unchanged. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Wendt.. 08/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025/ ...Lower MO Valley... Visible satellite/radar composite shows an MCV moving east-northeastward over northeast KS late this morning. Regional WSR-88D VAD data shows an enhanced belt of 850-500 mb flow (40 kt in the 2-6 km layer) associated with this disturbance. Surface analysis places a surface low over the Flint Hills with backed easterly flow across eastern KS into northwest MO. Considerable mid- to high-level cloud debris from early morning convection will be slow to dissipate, but gradual filtering of sunlight and the initial signs of a stratocumulus field over the Flint Hills indicates destabilization is beginning to occur. Models vary considerably (understandably so) regarding the development/evolution of a few potential stronger thunderstorms across the lower MO Valley later this afternoon into the early evening. Some forecast soundings show modest enlargement of the low-level portion of the hodograph, which may support updraft rotation if vigorous updraft development occurs. Given the low probability for severe and potentially supportive environment, have introduced low-severe probabilities this outlook update. ...Southern Plains... Morning analysis shows an outflow reinforced front has advanced southward across the southern High Plains, but has stalled near the I-44 corridor in OK southwestward into the northern periphery of the Permian Basin. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level impulse moving across southern CO and embedded within larger-scale troughing from CO/NM into the Upper Midwest. This mid-level trough will gradually pivot eastward over the southern High Plains through the evening. Heating of an adequately moist boundary layer (dewpoints ranging from the lower 70s in central OK to the mid 50s in east-central NM) will yield moderate buoyancy near/north of the diffuse boundary. Weak low-level winds will gradually veer to west-northwesterly and modestly strengthen with height through mid/upper levels, supporting modest deep-layer shear and some updraft organization. Isolated severe hail may occur with initially more cellular development across the southern High Plains, before some clustering potentially occurs late this afternoon/evening farther east into the TX Panhandle and northwest TX with more of a wind threat. While deep-layer shear will likely remain weak farther east across OK, the front/outflow boundary should aid in at least scattered thunderstorms. Isolated large hail and severe gusts are the primary hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. ...North Dakota into Northern Minnesota... No change in thinking from the previous forecast. A mid-level shortwave trough and related surface cold front are forecast to move east-southeastward over ND and northern MN through the period. Modest low-level moisture characterized by mid 50s to perhaps low 60s surface dewpoints should be present ahead of the front across these areas. Diurnal heating and modestly steepened lapse rates aloft should aid in the development of weak instability this afternoon. Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage along/ahead of the front this afternoon/evening as they spread eastward over parts of ND into northern MN. The stronger cells may produce marginally severe hail, with sufficient deep-layer shear present for some convective organization. With time, some clustering/upscale growth along the front appears probable, with isolated strong to severe gusts possible. The lack of stronger instability should tend to temper the overall severe threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...AND UPPER MIDWEST...... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern Plains, lower Missouri Valley, and the Upper Midwest, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... Other than updates to the general thunderstorm forecast, the outlook remains unchanged. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Wendt.. 08/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025/ ...Lower MO Valley... Visible satellite/radar composite shows an MCV moving east-northeastward over northeast KS late this morning. Regional WSR-88D VAD data shows an enhanced belt of 850-500 mb flow (40 kt in the 2-6 km layer) associated with this disturbance. Surface analysis places a surface low over the Flint Hills with backed easterly flow across eastern KS into northwest MO. Considerable mid- to high-level cloud debris from early morning convection will be slow to dissipate, but gradual filtering of sunlight and the initial signs of a stratocumulus field over the Flint Hills indicates destabilization is beginning to occur. Models vary considerably (understandably so) regarding the development/evolution of a few potential stronger thunderstorms across the lower MO Valley later this afternoon into the early evening. Some forecast soundings show modest enlargement of the low-level portion of the hodograph, which may support updraft rotation if vigorous updraft development occurs. Given the low probability for severe and potentially supportive environment, have introduced low-severe probabilities this outlook update. ...Southern Plains... Morning analysis shows an outflow reinforced front has advanced southward across the southern High Plains, but has stalled near the I-44 corridor in OK southwestward into the northern periphery of the Permian Basin. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level impulse moving across southern CO and embedded within larger-scale troughing from CO/NM into the Upper Midwest. This mid-level trough will gradually pivot eastward over the southern High Plains through the evening. Heating of an adequately moist boundary layer (dewpoints ranging from the lower 70s in central OK to the mid 50s in east-central NM) will yield moderate buoyancy near/north of the diffuse boundary. Weak low-level winds will gradually veer to west-northwesterly and modestly strengthen with height through mid/upper levels, supporting modest deep-layer shear and some updraft organization. Isolated severe hail may occur with initially more cellular development across the southern High Plains, before some clustering potentially occurs late this afternoon/evening farther east into the TX Panhandle and northwest TX with more of a wind threat. While deep-layer shear will likely remain weak farther east across OK, the front/outflow boundary should aid in at least scattered thunderstorms. Isolated large hail and severe gusts are the primary hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. ...North Dakota into Northern Minnesota... No change in thinking from the previous forecast. A mid-level shortwave trough and related surface cold front are forecast to move east-southeastward over ND and northern MN through the period. Modest low-level moisture characterized by mid 50s to perhaps low 60s surface dewpoints should be present ahead of the front across these areas. Diurnal heating and modestly steepened lapse rates aloft should aid in the development of weak instability this afternoon. Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage along/ahead of the front this afternoon/evening as they spread eastward over parts of ND into northern MN. The stronger cells may produce marginally severe hail, with sufficient deep-layer shear present for some convective organization. With time, some clustering/upscale growth along the front appears probable, with isolated strong to severe gusts possible. The lack of stronger instability should tend to temper the overall severe threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...AND UPPER MIDWEST...... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern Plains, lower Missouri Valley, and the Upper Midwest, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... Other than updates to the general thunderstorm forecast, the outlook remains unchanged. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Wendt.. 08/11/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025/ ...Lower MO Valley... Visible satellite/radar composite shows an MCV moving east-northeastward over northeast KS late this morning. Regional WSR-88D VAD data shows an enhanced belt of 850-500 mb flow (40 kt in the 2-6 km layer) associated with this disturbance. Surface analysis places a surface low over the Flint Hills with backed easterly flow across eastern KS into northwest MO. Considerable mid- to high-level cloud debris from early morning convection will be slow to dissipate, but gradual filtering of sunlight and the initial signs of a stratocumulus field over the Flint Hills indicates destabilization is beginning to occur. Models vary considerably (understandably so) regarding the development/evolution of a few potential stronger thunderstorms across the lower MO Valley later this afternoon into the early evening. Some forecast soundings show modest enlargement of the low-level portion of the hodograph, which may support updraft rotation if vigorous updraft development occurs. Given the low probability for severe and potentially supportive environment, have introduced low-severe probabilities this outlook update. ...Southern Plains... Morning analysis shows an outflow reinforced front has advanced southward across the southern High Plains, but has stalled near the I-44 corridor in OK southwestward into the northern periphery of the Permian Basin. Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level impulse moving across southern CO and embedded within larger-scale troughing from CO/NM into the Upper Midwest. This mid-level trough will gradually pivot eastward over the southern High Plains through the evening. Heating of an adequately moist boundary layer (dewpoints ranging from the lower 70s in central OK to the mid 50s in east-central NM) will yield moderate buoyancy near/north of the diffuse boundary. Weak low-level winds will gradually veer to west-northwesterly and modestly strengthen with height through mid/upper levels, supporting modest deep-layer shear and some updraft organization. Isolated severe hail may occur with initially more cellular development across the southern High Plains, before some clustering potentially occurs late this afternoon/evening farther east into the TX Panhandle and northwest TX with more of a wind threat. While deep-layer shear will likely remain weak farther east across OK, the front/outflow boundary should aid in at least scattered thunderstorms. Isolated large hail and severe gusts are the primary hazards with the stronger thunderstorms. ...North Dakota into Northern Minnesota... No change in thinking from the previous forecast. A mid-level shortwave trough and related surface cold front are forecast to move east-southeastward over ND and northern MN through the period. Modest low-level moisture characterized by mid 50s to perhaps low 60s surface dewpoints should be present ahead of the front across these areas. Diurnal heating and modestly steepened lapse rates aloft should aid in the development of weak instability this afternoon. Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage along/ahead of the front this afternoon/evening as they spread eastward over parts of ND into northern MN. The stronger cells may produce marginally severe hail, with sufficient deep-layer shear present for some convective organization. With time, some clustering/upscale growth along the front appears probable, with isolated strong to severe gusts possible. The lack of stronger instability should tend to temper the overall severe threat. Read more