Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary concerns. ...20z Update... ...Northern Missouri... The primary forecast update pertains to the organizing/intensifying convective line entering western MO (as of 19 UTC). Downstream of this line, satellite trends show dissipating cirrus with increasing low/mid-level cumulus associated with a northward advection of low-level moisture and increasing diurnal heating. Consequently, it is becoming increasingly probable that downstream destabilization will be sufficient and timely enough to maintain the strengthening line as it moves into northern MO and perhaps into southeast IA later this evening. Recent CAM guidance appears to be capturing this trend well and show a consistent severe wind signal through this corridor. Recent VWP observations from KEAX show sufficient low-level shear within the recovering air mass (driven by strengthening low-level warm advection) to support a threat of embedded circulations/brief tornadoes within the line. As such, 5% tornado probabilities have been introduced. ...Southern Plains... Thunderstorm coverage is beginning to increase from southern KS into central OK/northern TX as temperatures warm into the mid 80s with eroding inhibition. This trend is expected to continue as a cold front continues to push east into a moist/unstable air mass. The KTLX VWP continues to sample sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection, including the potential for a supercell or two ahead of the primary convective line. While severe hail/wind will be possible with pre-line discrete cells, the primary severe risk will likely manifest with the developing convective line later this afternoon and evening. ..Moore.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Central/Southern Plains into the Midwest... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the central Great Plains, embedded within larger upper troughing centered over MT/WY and the Dakotas that extends over much of the north-central U.S. A cold front extends from the western Great Lakes southwestward to a weak low near the OK/KS/TX Panhandle region. An extensive area of showers and thunderstorms exists from KS eastward into the mid MS Valley near the frontal zone. A low-predictability forecast scenario regarding specific details of storm evolution is expected this afternoon into the evening. A relatively weak capping inversion was sampled by the 12 UTC Norman, OK and Fort Worth/Midland, TX raobs (9 to 10 deg C at 700 mb) over the southern Great Plains. Heating in wake of morning convection and related cloud debris will promote a very unstable boundary layer by early to mid afternoon. Expecting a diurnal increase in low-level moisture coincident with the evapotranspiration cycle and lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios increasing from 14-15 to 16-17 g/kg (translated to surface dewpoints rising from 68-70 to 72-76 deg F). Forecast soundings show 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE from southwest MO into central TX. The 12 UTC model run of the NAM appears to be an unrealistic outlier solution showing enhanced low-level shear across OK during the afternoon. As convective inhibition erodes across the southern Great Plains east of a dryline/cold front and south of reinforced outflow draped across southern KS into northern MO, expecting scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon into the evening period. Severe gusts and large hail appear to be the primary severe hazards. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms should continue along the front as it moves into TX Hill Country tonight. An elongated corridor of low-tornado potential will be maintained this outlook update from the southern Great Plains northeastward through the lower MO Valley and into the western Great Lakes. A belt of 40-kt 2 km southwesterly flow will be maintained across western into northern MO and spatially overlapping outflow in the lower MO Valley. Limited heating will temper the overall buoyancy across the northern half of MO into IA, likely tempering the overall severe risk. Additionally, with the line-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear across this region, the expectation is for a predominantly linear storm mode, with occasional bowing segments capable of producing damaging gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary concerns. ...20z Update... ...Northern Missouri... The primary forecast update pertains to the organizing/intensifying convective line entering western MO (as of 19 UTC). Downstream of this line, satellite trends show dissipating cirrus with increasing low/mid-level cumulus associated with a northward advection of low-level moisture and increasing diurnal heating. Consequently, it is becoming increasingly probable that downstream destabilization will be sufficient and timely enough to maintain the strengthening line as it moves into northern MO and perhaps into southeast IA later this evening. Recent CAM guidance appears to be capturing this trend well and show a consistent severe wind signal through this corridor. Recent VWP observations from KEAX show sufficient low-level shear within the recovering air mass (driven by strengthening low-level warm advection) to support a threat of embedded circulations/brief tornadoes within the line. As such, 5% tornado probabilities have been introduced. ...Southern Plains... Thunderstorm coverage is beginning to increase from southern KS into central OK/northern TX as temperatures warm into the mid 80s with eroding inhibition. This trend is expected to continue as a cold front continues to push east into a moist/unstable air mass. The KTLX VWP continues to sample sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection, including the potential for a supercell or two ahead of the primary convective line. While severe hail/wind will be possible with pre-line discrete cells, the primary severe risk will likely manifest with the developing convective line later this afternoon and evening. ..Moore.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Central/Southern Plains into the Midwest... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the central Great Plains, embedded within larger upper troughing centered over MT/WY and the Dakotas that extends over much of the north-central U.S. A cold front extends from the western Great Lakes southwestward to a weak low near the OK/KS/TX Panhandle region. An extensive area of showers and thunderstorms exists from KS eastward into the mid MS Valley near the frontal zone. A low-predictability forecast scenario regarding specific details of storm evolution is expected this afternoon into the evening. A relatively weak capping inversion was sampled by the 12 UTC Norman, OK and Fort Worth/Midland, TX raobs (9 to 10 deg C at 700 mb) over the southern Great Plains. Heating in wake of morning convection and related cloud debris will promote a very unstable boundary layer by early to mid afternoon. Expecting a diurnal increase in low-level moisture coincident with the evapotranspiration cycle and lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios increasing from 14-15 to 16-17 g/kg (translated to surface dewpoints rising from 68-70 to 72-76 deg F). Forecast soundings show 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE from southwest MO into central TX. The 12 UTC model run of the NAM appears to be an unrealistic outlier solution showing enhanced low-level shear across OK during the afternoon. As convective inhibition erodes across the southern Great Plains east of a dryline/cold front and south of reinforced outflow draped across southern KS into northern MO, expecting scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon into the evening period. Severe gusts and large hail appear to be the primary severe hazards. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms should continue along the front as it moves into TX Hill Country tonight. An elongated corridor of low-tornado potential will be maintained this outlook update from the southern Great Plains northeastward through the lower MO Valley and into the western Great Lakes. A belt of 40-kt 2 km southwesterly flow will be maintained across western into northern MO and spatially overlapping outflow in the lower MO Valley. Limited heating will temper the overall buoyancy across the northern half of MO into IA, likely tempering the overall severe risk. Additionally, with the line-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear across this region, the expectation is for a predominantly linear storm mode, with occasional bowing segments capable of producing damaging gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary concerns. ...20z Update... ...Northern Missouri... The primary forecast update pertains to the organizing/intensifying convective line entering western MO (as of 19 UTC). Downstream of this line, satellite trends show dissipating cirrus with increasing low/mid-level cumulus associated with a northward advection of low-level moisture and increasing diurnal heating. Consequently, it is becoming increasingly probable that downstream destabilization will be sufficient and timely enough to maintain the strengthening line as it moves into northern MO and perhaps into southeast IA later this evening. Recent CAM guidance appears to be capturing this trend well and show a consistent severe wind signal through this corridor. Recent VWP observations from KEAX show sufficient low-level shear within the recovering air mass (driven by strengthening low-level warm advection) to support a threat of embedded circulations/brief tornadoes within the line. As such, 5% tornado probabilities have been introduced. ...Southern Plains... Thunderstorm coverage is beginning to increase from southern KS into central OK/northern TX as temperatures warm into the mid 80s with eroding inhibition. This trend is expected to continue as a cold front continues to push east into a moist/unstable air mass. The KTLX VWP continues to sample sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection, including the potential for a supercell or two ahead of the primary convective line. While severe hail/wind will be possible with pre-line discrete cells, the primary severe risk will likely manifest with the developing convective line later this afternoon and evening. ..Moore.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Central/Southern Plains into the Midwest... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the central Great Plains, embedded within larger upper troughing centered over MT/WY and the Dakotas that extends over much of the north-central U.S. A cold front extends from the western Great Lakes southwestward to a weak low near the OK/KS/TX Panhandle region. An extensive area of showers and thunderstorms exists from KS eastward into the mid MS Valley near the frontal zone. A low-predictability forecast scenario regarding specific details of storm evolution is expected this afternoon into the evening. A relatively weak capping inversion was sampled by the 12 UTC Norman, OK and Fort Worth/Midland, TX raobs (9 to 10 deg C at 700 mb) over the southern Great Plains. Heating in wake of morning convection and related cloud debris will promote a very unstable boundary layer by early to mid afternoon. Expecting a diurnal increase in low-level moisture coincident with the evapotranspiration cycle and lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios increasing from 14-15 to 16-17 g/kg (translated to surface dewpoints rising from 68-70 to 72-76 deg F). Forecast soundings show 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE from southwest MO into central TX. The 12 UTC model run of the NAM appears to be an unrealistic outlier solution showing enhanced low-level shear across OK during the afternoon. As convective inhibition erodes across the southern Great Plains east of a dryline/cold front and south of reinforced outflow draped across southern KS into northern MO, expecting scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon into the evening period. Severe gusts and large hail appear to be the primary severe hazards. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms should continue along the front as it moves into TX Hill Country tonight. An elongated corridor of low-tornado potential will be maintained this outlook update from the southern Great Plains northeastward through the lower MO Valley and into the western Great Lakes. A belt of 40-kt 2 km southwesterly flow will be maintained across western into northern MO and spatially overlapping outflow in the lower MO Valley. Limited heating will temper the overall buoyancy across the northern half of MO into IA, likely tempering the overall severe risk. Additionally, with the line-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear across this region, the expectation is for a predominantly linear storm mode, with occasional bowing segments capable of producing damaging gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary concerns. ...20z Update... ...Northern Missouri... The primary forecast update pertains to the organizing/intensifying convective line entering western MO (as of 19 UTC). Downstream of this line, satellite trends show dissipating cirrus with increasing low/mid-level cumulus associated with a northward advection of low-level moisture and increasing diurnal heating. Consequently, it is becoming increasingly probable that downstream destabilization will be sufficient and timely enough to maintain the strengthening line as it moves into northern MO and perhaps into southeast IA later this evening. Recent CAM guidance appears to be capturing this trend well and show a consistent severe wind signal through this corridor. Recent VWP observations from KEAX show sufficient low-level shear within the recovering air mass (driven by strengthening low-level warm advection) to support a threat of embedded circulations/brief tornadoes within the line. As such, 5% tornado probabilities have been introduced. ...Southern Plains... Thunderstorm coverage is beginning to increase from southern KS into central OK/northern TX as temperatures warm into the mid 80s with eroding inhibition. This trend is expected to continue as a cold front continues to push east into a moist/unstable air mass. The KTLX VWP continues to sample sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection, including the potential for a supercell or two ahead of the primary convective line. While severe hail/wind will be possible with pre-line discrete cells, the primary severe risk will likely manifest with the developing convective line later this afternoon and evening. ..Moore.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Central/Southern Plains into the Midwest... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the central Great Plains, embedded within larger upper troughing centered over MT/WY and the Dakotas that extends over much of the north-central U.S. A cold front extends from the western Great Lakes southwestward to a weak low near the OK/KS/TX Panhandle region. An extensive area of showers and thunderstorms exists from KS eastward into the mid MS Valley near the frontal zone. A low-predictability forecast scenario regarding specific details of storm evolution is expected this afternoon into the evening. A relatively weak capping inversion was sampled by the 12 UTC Norman, OK and Fort Worth/Midland, TX raobs (9 to 10 deg C at 700 mb) over the southern Great Plains. Heating in wake of morning convection and related cloud debris will promote a very unstable boundary layer by early to mid afternoon. Expecting a diurnal increase in low-level moisture coincident with the evapotranspiration cycle and lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios increasing from 14-15 to 16-17 g/kg (translated to surface dewpoints rising from 68-70 to 72-76 deg F). Forecast soundings show 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE from southwest MO into central TX. The 12 UTC model run of the NAM appears to be an unrealistic outlier solution showing enhanced low-level shear across OK during the afternoon. As convective inhibition erodes across the southern Great Plains east of a dryline/cold front and south of reinforced outflow draped across southern KS into northern MO, expecting scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon into the evening period. Severe gusts and large hail appear to be the primary severe hazards. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms should continue along the front as it moves into TX Hill Country tonight. An elongated corridor of low-tornado potential will be maintained this outlook update from the southern Great Plains northeastward through the lower MO Valley and into the western Great Lakes. A belt of 40-kt 2 km southwesterly flow will be maintained across western into northern MO and spatially overlapping outflow in the lower MO Valley. Limited heating will temper the overall buoyancy across the northern half of MO into IA, likely tempering the overall severe risk. Additionally, with the line-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear across this region, the expectation is for a predominantly linear storm mode, with occasional bowing segments capable of producing damaging gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary concerns. ...20z Update... ...Northern Missouri... The primary forecast update pertains to the organizing/intensifying convective line entering western MO (as of 19 UTC). Downstream of this line, satellite trends show dissipating cirrus with increasing low/mid-level cumulus associated with a northward advection of low-level moisture and increasing diurnal heating. Consequently, it is becoming increasingly probable that downstream destabilization will be sufficient and timely enough to maintain the strengthening line as it moves into northern MO and perhaps into southeast IA later this evening. Recent CAM guidance appears to be capturing this trend well and show a consistent severe wind signal through this corridor. Recent VWP observations from KEAX show sufficient low-level shear within the recovering air mass (driven by strengthening low-level warm advection) to support a threat of embedded circulations/brief tornadoes within the line. As such, 5% tornado probabilities have been introduced. ...Southern Plains... Thunderstorm coverage is beginning to increase from southern KS into central OK/northern TX as temperatures warm into the mid 80s with eroding inhibition. This trend is expected to continue as a cold front continues to push east into a moist/unstable air mass. The KTLX VWP continues to sample sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection, including the potential for a supercell or two ahead of the primary convective line. While severe hail/wind will be possible with pre-line discrete cells, the primary severe risk will likely manifest with the developing convective line later this afternoon and evening. ..Moore.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Central/Southern Plains into the Midwest... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the central Great Plains, embedded within larger upper troughing centered over MT/WY and the Dakotas that extends over much of the north-central U.S. A cold front extends from the western Great Lakes southwestward to a weak low near the OK/KS/TX Panhandle region. An extensive area of showers and thunderstorms exists from KS eastward into the mid MS Valley near the frontal zone. A low-predictability forecast scenario regarding specific details of storm evolution is expected this afternoon into the evening. A relatively weak capping inversion was sampled by the 12 UTC Norman, OK and Fort Worth/Midland, TX raobs (9 to 10 deg C at 700 mb) over the southern Great Plains. Heating in wake of morning convection and related cloud debris will promote a very unstable boundary layer by early to mid afternoon. Expecting a diurnal increase in low-level moisture coincident with the evapotranspiration cycle and lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios increasing from 14-15 to 16-17 g/kg (translated to surface dewpoints rising from 68-70 to 72-76 deg F). Forecast soundings show 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE from southwest MO into central TX. The 12 UTC model run of the NAM appears to be an unrealistic outlier solution showing enhanced low-level shear across OK during the afternoon. As convective inhibition erodes across the southern Great Plains east of a dryline/cold front and south of reinforced outflow draped across southern KS into northern MO, expecting scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon into the evening period. Severe gusts and large hail appear to be the primary severe hazards. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms should continue along the front as it moves into TX Hill Country tonight. An elongated corridor of low-tornado potential will be maintained this outlook update from the southern Great Plains northeastward through the lower MO Valley and into the western Great Lakes. A belt of 40-kt 2 km southwesterly flow will be maintained across western into northern MO and spatially overlapping outflow in the lower MO Valley. Limited heating will temper the overall buoyancy across the northern half of MO into IA, likely tempering the overall severe risk. Additionally, with the line-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear across this region, the expectation is for a predominantly linear storm mode, with occasional bowing segments capable of producing damaging gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary concerns. ...20z Update... ...Northern Missouri... The primary forecast update pertains to the organizing/intensifying convective line entering western MO (as of 19 UTC). Downstream of this line, satellite trends show dissipating cirrus with increasing low/mid-level cumulus associated with a northward advection of low-level moisture and increasing diurnal heating. Consequently, it is becoming increasingly probable that downstream destabilization will be sufficient and timely enough to maintain the strengthening line as it moves into northern MO and perhaps into southeast IA later this evening. Recent CAM guidance appears to be capturing this trend well and show a consistent severe wind signal through this corridor. Recent VWP observations from KEAX show sufficient low-level shear within the recovering air mass (driven by strengthening low-level warm advection) to support a threat of embedded circulations/brief tornadoes within the line. As such, 5% tornado probabilities have been introduced. ...Southern Plains... Thunderstorm coverage is beginning to increase from southern KS into central OK/northern TX as temperatures warm into the mid 80s with eroding inhibition. This trend is expected to continue as a cold front continues to push east into a moist/unstable air mass. The KTLX VWP continues to sample sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection, including the potential for a supercell or two ahead of the primary convective line. While severe hail/wind will be possible with pre-line discrete cells, the primary severe risk will likely manifest with the developing convective line later this afternoon and evening. ..Moore.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Central/Southern Plains into the Midwest... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the central Great Plains, embedded within larger upper troughing centered over MT/WY and the Dakotas that extends over much of the north-central U.S. A cold front extends from the western Great Lakes southwestward to a weak low near the OK/KS/TX Panhandle region. An extensive area of showers and thunderstorms exists from KS eastward into the mid MS Valley near the frontal zone. A low-predictability forecast scenario regarding specific details of storm evolution is expected this afternoon into the evening. A relatively weak capping inversion was sampled by the 12 UTC Norman, OK and Fort Worth/Midland, TX raobs (9 to 10 deg C at 700 mb) over the southern Great Plains. Heating in wake of morning convection and related cloud debris will promote a very unstable boundary layer by early to mid afternoon. Expecting a diurnal increase in low-level moisture coincident with the evapotranspiration cycle and lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios increasing from 14-15 to 16-17 g/kg (translated to surface dewpoints rising from 68-70 to 72-76 deg F). Forecast soundings show 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE from southwest MO into central TX. The 12 UTC model run of the NAM appears to be an unrealistic outlier solution showing enhanced low-level shear across OK during the afternoon. As convective inhibition erodes across the southern Great Plains east of a dryline/cold front and south of reinforced outflow draped across southern KS into northern MO, expecting scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon into the evening period. Severe gusts and large hail appear to be the primary severe hazards. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms should continue along the front as it moves into TX Hill Country tonight. An elongated corridor of low-tornado potential will be maintained this outlook update from the southern Great Plains northeastward through the lower MO Valley and into the western Great Lakes. A belt of 40-kt 2 km southwesterly flow will be maintained across western into northern MO and spatially overlapping outflow in the lower MO Valley. Limited heating will temper the overall buoyancy across the northern half of MO into IA, likely tempering the overall severe risk. Additionally, with the line-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear across this region, the expectation is for a predominantly linear storm mode, with occasional bowing segments capable of producing damaging gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary concerns. ...20z Update... ...Northern Missouri... The primary forecast update pertains to the organizing/intensifying convective line entering western MO (as of 19 UTC). Downstream of this line, satellite trends show dissipating cirrus with increasing low/mid-level cumulus associated with a northward advection of low-level moisture and increasing diurnal heating. Consequently, it is becoming increasingly probable that downstream destabilization will be sufficient and timely enough to maintain the strengthening line as it moves into northern MO and perhaps into southeast IA later this evening. Recent CAM guidance appears to be capturing this trend well and show a consistent severe wind signal through this corridor. Recent VWP observations from KEAX show sufficient low-level shear within the recovering air mass (driven by strengthening low-level warm advection) to support a threat of embedded circulations/brief tornadoes within the line. As such, 5% tornado probabilities have been introduced. ...Southern Plains... Thunderstorm coverage is beginning to increase from southern KS into central OK/northern TX as temperatures warm into the mid 80s with eroding inhibition. This trend is expected to continue as a cold front continues to push east into a moist/unstable air mass. The KTLX VWP continues to sample sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection, including the potential for a supercell or two ahead of the primary convective line. While severe hail/wind will be possible with pre-line discrete cells, the primary severe risk will likely manifest with the developing convective line later this afternoon and evening. ..Moore.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Central/Southern Plains into the Midwest... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the central Great Plains, embedded within larger upper troughing centered over MT/WY and the Dakotas that extends over much of the north-central U.S. A cold front extends from the western Great Lakes southwestward to a weak low near the OK/KS/TX Panhandle region. An extensive area of showers and thunderstorms exists from KS eastward into the mid MS Valley near the frontal zone. A low-predictability forecast scenario regarding specific details of storm evolution is expected this afternoon into the evening. A relatively weak capping inversion was sampled by the 12 UTC Norman, OK and Fort Worth/Midland, TX raobs (9 to 10 deg C at 700 mb) over the southern Great Plains. Heating in wake of morning convection and related cloud debris will promote a very unstable boundary layer by early to mid afternoon. Expecting a diurnal increase in low-level moisture coincident with the evapotranspiration cycle and lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios increasing from 14-15 to 16-17 g/kg (translated to surface dewpoints rising from 68-70 to 72-76 deg F). Forecast soundings show 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE from southwest MO into central TX. The 12 UTC model run of the NAM appears to be an unrealistic outlier solution showing enhanced low-level shear across OK during the afternoon. As convective inhibition erodes across the southern Great Plains east of a dryline/cold front and south of reinforced outflow draped across southern KS into northern MO, expecting scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon into the evening period. Severe gusts and large hail appear to be the primary severe hazards. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms should continue along the front as it moves into TX Hill Country tonight. An elongated corridor of low-tornado potential will be maintained this outlook update from the southern Great Plains northeastward through the lower MO Valley and into the western Great Lakes. A belt of 40-kt 2 km southwesterly flow will be maintained across western into northern MO and spatially overlapping outflow in the lower MO Valley. Limited heating will temper the overall buoyancy across the northern half of MO into IA, likely tempering the overall severe risk. Additionally, with the line-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear across this region, the expectation is for a predominantly linear storm mode, with occasional bowing segments capable of producing damaging gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary concerns. ...20z Update... ...Northern Missouri... The primary forecast update pertains to the organizing/intensifying convective line entering western MO (as of 19 UTC). Downstream of this line, satellite trends show dissipating cirrus with increasing low/mid-level cumulus associated with a northward advection of low-level moisture and increasing diurnal heating. Consequently, it is becoming increasingly probable that downstream destabilization will be sufficient and timely enough to maintain the strengthening line as it moves into northern MO and perhaps into southeast IA later this evening. Recent CAM guidance appears to be capturing this trend well and show a consistent severe wind signal through this corridor. Recent VWP observations from KEAX show sufficient low-level shear within the recovering air mass (driven by strengthening low-level warm advection) to support a threat of embedded circulations/brief tornadoes within the line. As such, 5% tornado probabilities have been introduced. ...Southern Plains... Thunderstorm coverage is beginning to increase from southern KS into central OK/northern TX as temperatures warm into the mid 80s with eroding inhibition. This trend is expected to continue as a cold front continues to push east into a moist/unstable air mass. The KTLX VWP continues to sample sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection, including the potential for a supercell or two ahead of the primary convective line. While severe hail/wind will be possible with pre-line discrete cells, the primary severe risk will likely manifest with the developing convective line later this afternoon and evening. ..Moore.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Central/Southern Plains into the Midwest... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the central Great Plains, embedded within larger upper troughing centered over MT/WY and the Dakotas that extends over much of the north-central U.S. A cold front extends from the western Great Lakes southwestward to a weak low near the OK/KS/TX Panhandle region. An extensive area of showers and thunderstorms exists from KS eastward into the mid MS Valley near the frontal zone. A low-predictability forecast scenario regarding specific details of storm evolution is expected this afternoon into the evening. A relatively weak capping inversion was sampled by the 12 UTC Norman, OK and Fort Worth/Midland, TX raobs (9 to 10 deg C at 700 mb) over the southern Great Plains. Heating in wake of morning convection and related cloud debris will promote a very unstable boundary layer by early to mid afternoon. Expecting a diurnal increase in low-level moisture coincident with the evapotranspiration cycle and lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios increasing from 14-15 to 16-17 g/kg (translated to surface dewpoints rising from 68-70 to 72-76 deg F). Forecast soundings show 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE from southwest MO into central TX. The 12 UTC model run of the NAM appears to be an unrealistic outlier solution showing enhanced low-level shear across OK during the afternoon. As convective inhibition erodes across the southern Great Plains east of a dryline/cold front and south of reinforced outflow draped across southern KS into northern MO, expecting scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon into the evening period. Severe gusts and large hail appear to be the primary severe hazards. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms should continue along the front as it moves into TX Hill Country tonight. An elongated corridor of low-tornado potential will be maintained this outlook update from the southern Great Plains northeastward through the lower MO Valley and into the western Great Lakes. A belt of 40-kt 2 km southwesterly flow will be maintained across western into northern MO and spatially overlapping outflow in the lower MO Valley. Limited heating will temper the overall buoyancy across the northern half of MO into IA, likely tempering the overall severe risk. Additionally, with the line-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear across this region, the expectation is for a predominantly linear storm mode, with occasional bowing segments capable of producing damaging gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary concerns. ...20z Update... ...Northern Missouri... The primary forecast update pertains to the organizing/intensifying convective line entering western MO (as of 19 UTC). Downstream of this line, satellite trends show dissipating cirrus with increasing low/mid-level cumulus associated with a northward advection of low-level moisture and increasing diurnal heating. Consequently, it is becoming increasingly probable that downstream destabilization will be sufficient and timely enough to maintain the strengthening line as it moves into northern MO and perhaps into southeast IA later this evening. Recent CAM guidance appears to be capturing this trend well and show a consistent severe wind signal through this corridor. Recent VWP observations from KEAX show sufficient low-level shear within the recovering air mass (driven by strengthening low-level warm advection) to support a threat of embedded circulations/brief tornadoes within the line. As such, 5% tornado probabilities have been introduced. ...Southern Plains... Thunderstorm coverage is beginning to increase from southern KS into central OK/northern TX as temperatures warm into the mid 80s with eroding inhibition. This trend is expected to continue as a cold front continues to push east into a moist/unstable air mass. The KTLX VWP continues to sample sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection, including the potential for a supercell or two ahead of the primary convective line. While severe hail/wind will be possible with pre-line discrete cells, the primary severe risk will likely manifest with the developing convective line later this afternoon and evening. ..Moore.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Central/Southern Plains into the Midwest... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the central Great Plains, embedded within larger upper troughing centered over MT/WY and the Dakotas that extends over much of the north-central U.S. A cold front extends from the western Great Lakes southwestward to a weak low near the OK/KS/TX Panhandle region. An extensive area of showers and thunderstorms exists from KS eastward into the mid MS Valley near the frontal zone. A low-predictability forecast scenario regarding specific details of storm evolution is expected this afternoon into the evening. A relatively weak capping inversion was sampled by the 12 UTC Norman, OK and Fort Worth/Midland, TX raobs (9 to 10 deg C at 700 mb) over the southern Great Plains. Heating in wake of morning convection and related cloud debris will promote a very unstable boundary layer by early to mid afternoon. Expecting a diurnal increase in low-level moisture coincident with the evapotranspiration cycle and lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios increasing from 14-15 to 16-17 g/kg (translated to surface dewpoints rising from 68-70 to 72-76 deg F). Forecast soundings show 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE from southwest MO into central TX. The 12 UTC model run of the NAM appears to be an unrealistic outlier solution showing enhanced low-level shear across OK during the afternoon. As convective inhibition erodes across the southern Great Plains east of a dryline/cold front and south of reinforced outflow draped across southern KS into northern MO, expecting scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon into the evening period. Severe gusts and large hail appear to be the primary severe hazards. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms should continue along the front as it moves into TX Hill Country tonight. An elongated corridor of low-tornado potential will be maintained this outlook update from the southern Great Plains northeastward through the lower MO Valley and into the western Great Lakes. A belt of 40-kt 2 km southwesterly flow will be maintained across western into northern MO and spatially overlapping outflow in the lower MO Valley. Limited heating will temper the overall buoyancy across the northern half of MO into IA, likely tempering the overall severe risk. Additionally, with the line-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear across this region, the expectation is for a predominantly linear storm mode, with occasional bowing segments capable of producing damaging gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary concerns. ...20z Update... ...Northern Missouri... The primary forecast update pertains to the organizing/intensifying convective line entering western MO (as of 19 UTC). Downstream of this line, satellite trends show dissipating cirrus with increasing low/mid-level cumulus associated with a northward advection of low-level moisture and increasing diurnal heating. Consequently, it is becoming increasingly probable that downstream destabilization will be sufficient and timely enough to maintain the strengthening line as it moves into northern MO and perhaps into southeast IA later this evening. Recent CAM guidance appears to be capturing this trend well and show a consistent severe wind signal through this corridor. Recent VWP observations from KEAX show sufficient low-level shear within the recovering air mass (driven by strengthening low-level warm advection) to support a threat of embedded circulations/brief tornadoes within the line. As such, 5% tornado probabilities have been introduced. ...Southern Plains... Thunderstorm coverage is beginning to increase from southern KS into central OK/northern TX as temperatures warm into the mid 80s with eroding inhibition. This trend is expected to continue as a cold front continues to push east into a moist/unstable air mass. The KTLX VWP continues to sample sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection, including the potential for a supercell or two ahead of the primary convective line. While severe hail/wind will be possible with pre-line discrete cells, the primary severe risk will likely manifest with the developing convective line later this afternoon and evening. ..Moore.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Central/Southern Plains into the Midwest... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the central Great Plains, embedded within larger upper troughing centered over MT/WY and the Dakotas that extends over much of the north-central U.S. A cold front extends from the western Great Lakes southwestward to a weak low near the OK/KS/TX Panhandle region. An extensive area of showers and thunderstorms exists from KS eastward into the mid MS Valley near the frontal zone. A low-predictability forecast scenario regarding specific details of storm evolution is expected this afternoon into the evening. A relatively weak capping inversion was sampled by the 12 UTC Norman, OK and Fort Worth/Midland, TX raobs (9 to 10 deg C at 700 mb) over the southern Great Plains. Heating in wake of morning convection and related cloud debris will promote a very unstable boundary layer by early to mid afternoon. Expecting a diurnal increase in low-level moisture coincident with the evapotranspiration cycle and lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios increasing from 14-15 to 16-17 g/kg (translated to surface dewpoints rising from 68-70 to 72-76 deg F). Forecast soundings show 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE from southwest MO into central TX. The 12 UTC model run of the NAM appears to be an unrealistic outlier solution showing enhanced low-level shear across OK during the afternoon. As convective inhibition erodes across the southern Great Plains east of a dryline/cold front and south of reinforced outflow draped across southern KS into northern MO, expecting scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon into the evening period. Severe gusts and large hail appear to be the primary severe hazards. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms should continue along the front as it moves into TX Hill Country tonight. An elongated corridor of low-tornado potential will be maintained this outlook update from the southern Great Plains northeastward through the lower MO Valley and into the western Great Lakes. A belt of 40-kt 2 km southwesterly flow will be maintained across western into northern MO and spatially overlapping outflow in the lower MO Valley. Limited heating will temper the overall buoyancy across the northern half of MO into IA, likely tempering the overall severe risk. Additionally, with the line-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear across this region, the expectation is for a predominantly linear storm mode, with occasional bowing segments capable of producing damaging gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary concerns. ...20z Update... ...Northern Missouri... The primary forecast update pertains to the organizing/intensifying convective line entering western MO (as of 19 UTC). Downstream of this line, satellite trends show dissipating cirrus with increasing low/mid-level cumulus associated with a northward advection of low-level moisture and increasing diurnal heating. Consequently, it is becoming increasingly probable that downstream destabilization will be sufficient and timely enough to maintain the strengthening line as it moves into northern MO and perhaps into southeast IA later this evening. Recent CAM guidance appears to be capturing this trend well and show a consistent severe wind signal through this corridor. Recent VWP observations from KEAX show sufficient low-level shear within the recovering air mass (driven by strengthening low-level warm advection) to support a threat of embedded circulations/brief tornadoes within the line. As such, 5% tornado probabilities have been introduced. ...Southern Plains... Thunderstorm coverage is beginning to increase from southern KS into central OK/northern TX as temperatures warm into the mid 80s with eroding inhibition. This trend is expected to continue as a cold front continues to push east into a moist/unstable air mass. The KTLX VWP continues to sample sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection, including the potential for a supercell or two ahead of the primary convective line. While severe hail/wind will be possible with pre-line discrete cells, the primary severe risk will likely manifest with the developing convective line later this afternoon and evening. ..Moore.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Central/Southern Plains into the Midwest... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the central Great Plains, embedded within larger upper troughing centered over MT/WY and the Dakotas that extends over much of the north-central U.S. A cold front extends from the western Great Lakes southwestward to a weak low near the OK/KS/TX Panhandle region. An extensive area of showers and thunderstorms exists from KS eastward into the mid MS Valley near the frontal zone. A low-predictability forecast scenario regarding specific details of storm evolution is expected this afternoon into the evening. A relatively weak capping inversion was sampled by the 12 UTC Norman, OK and Fort Worth/Midland, TX raobs (9 to 10 deg C at 700 mb) over the southern Great Plains. Heating in wake of morning convection and related cloud debris will promote a very unstable boundary layer by early to mid afternoon. Expecting a diurnal increase in low-level moisture coincident with the evapotranspiration cycle and lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios increasing from 14-15 to 16-17 g/kg (translated to surface dewpoints rising from 68-70 to 72-76 deg F). Forecast soundings show 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE from southwest MO into central TX. The 12 UTC model run of the NAM appears to be an unrealistic outlier solution showing enhanced low-level shear across OK during the afternoon. As convective inhibition erodes across the southern Great Plains east of a dryline/cold front and south of reinforced outflow draped across southern KS into northern MO, expecting scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon into the evening period. Severe gusts and large hail appear to be the primary severe hazards. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms should continue along the front as it moves into TX Hill Country tonight. An elongated corridor of low-tornado potential will be maintained this outlook update from the southern Great Plains northeastward through the lower MO Valley and into the western Great Lakes. A belt of 40-kt 2 km southwesterly flow will be maintained across western into northern MO and spatially overlapping outflow in the lower MO Valley. Limited heating will temper the overall buoyancy across the northern half of MO into IA, likely tempering the overall severe risk. Additionally, with the line-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear across this region, the expectation is for a predominantly linear storm mode, with occasional bowing segments capable of producing damaging gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary concerns. ...20z Update... ...Northern Missouri... The primary forecast update pertains to the organizing/intensifying convective line entering western MO (as of 19 UTC). Downstream of this line, satellite trends show dissipating cirrus with increasing low/mid-level cumulus associated with a northward advection of low-level moisture and increasing diurnal heating. Consequently, it is becoming increasingly probable that downstream destabilization will be sufficient and timely enough to maintain the strengthening line as it moves into northern MO and perhaps into southeast IA later this evening. Recent CAM guidance appears to be capturing this trend well and show a consistent severe wind signal through this corridor. Recent VWP observations from KEAX show sufficient low-level shear within the recovering air mass (driven by strengthening low-level warm advection) to support a threat of embedded circulations/brief tornadoes within the line. As such, 5% tornado probabilities have been introduced. ...Southern Plains... Thunderstorm coverage is beginning to increase from southern KS into central OK/northern TX as temperatures warm into the mid 80s with eroding inhibition. This trend is expected to continue as a cold front continues to push east into a moist/unstable air mass. The KTLX VWP continues to sample sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection, including the potential for a supercell or two ahead of the primary convective line. While severe hail/wind will be possible with pre-line discrete cells, the primary severe risk will likely manifest with the developing convective line later this afternoon and evening. ..Moore.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Central/Southern Plains into the Midwest... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the central Great Plains, embedded within larger upper troughing centered over MT/WY and the Dakotas that extends over much of the north-central U.S. A cold front extends from the western Great Lakes southwestward to a weak low near the OK/KS/TX Panhandle region. An extensive area of showers and thunderstorms exists from KS eastward into the mid MS Valley near the frontal zone. A low-predictability forecast scenario regarding specific details of storm evolution is expected this afternoon into the evening. A relatively weak capping inversion was sampled by the 12 UTC Norman, OK and Fort Worth/Midland, TX raobs (9 to 10 deg C at 700 mb) over the southern Great Plains. Heating in wake of morning convection and related cloud debris will promote a very unstable boundary layer by early to mid afternoon. Expecting a diurnal increase in low-level moisture coincident with the evapotranspiration cycle and lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios increasing from 14-15 to 16-17 g/kg (translated to surface dewpoints rising from 68-70 to 72-76 deg F). Forecast soundings show 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE from southwest MO into central TX. The 12 UTC model run of the NAM appears to be an unrealistic outlier solution showing enhanced low-level shear across OK during the afternoon. As convective inhibition erodes across the southern Great Plains east of a dryline/cold front and south of reinforced outflow draped across southern KS into northern MO, expecting scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon into the evening period. Severe gusts and large hail appear to be the primary severe hazards. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms should continue along the front as it moves into TX Hill Country tonight. An elongated corridor of low-tornado potential will be maintained this outlook update from the southern Great Plains northeastward through the lower MO Valley and into the western Great Lakes. A belt of 40-kt 2 km southwesterly flow will be maintained across western into northern MO and spatially overlapping outflow in the lower MO Valley. Limited heating will temper the overall buoyancy across the northern half of MO into IA, likely tempering the overall severe risk. Additionally, with the line-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear across this region, the expectation is for a predominantly linear storm mode, with occasional bowing segments capable of producing damaging gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROM PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great Plains to the Midwest. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary concerns. ...20z Update... ...Northern Missouri... The primary forecast update pertains to the organizing/intensifying convective line entering western MO (as of 19 UTC). Downstream of this line, satellite trends show dissipating cirrus with increasing low/mid-level cumulus associated with a northward advection of low-level moisture and increasing diurnal heating. Consequently, it is becoming increasingly probable that downstream destabilization will be sufficient and timely enough to maintain the strengthening line as it moves into northern MO and perhaps into southeast IA later this evening. Recent CAM guidance appears to be capturing this trend well and show a consistent severe wind signal through this corridor. Recent VWP observations from KEAX show sufficient low-level shear within the recovering air mass (driven by strengthening low-level warm advection) to support a threat of embedded circulations/brief tornadoes within the line. As such, 5% tornado probabilities have been introduced. ...Southern Plains... Thunderstorm coverage is beginning to increase from southern KS into central OK/northern TX as temperatures warm into the mid 80s with eroding inhibition. This trend is expected to continue as a cold front continues to push east into a moist/unstable air mass. The KTLX VWP continues to sample sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection, including the potential for a supercell or two ahead of the primary convective line. While severe hail/wind will be possible with pre-line discrete cells, the primary severe risk will likely manifest with the developing convective line later this afternoon and evening. ..Moore.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Central/Southern Plains into the Midwest... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the central Great Plains, embedded within larger upper troughing centered over MT/WY and the Dakotas that extends over much of the north-central U.S. A cold front extends from the western Great Lakes southwestward to a weak low near the OK/KS/TX Panhandle region. An extensive area of showers and thunderstorms exists from KS eastward into the mid MS Valley near the frontal zone. A low-predictability forecast scenario regarding specific details of storm evolution is expected this afternoon into the evening. A relatively weak capping inversion was sampled by the 12 UTC Norman, OK and Fort Worth/Midland, TX raobs (9 to 10 deg C at 700 mb) over the southern Great Plains. Heating in wake of morning convection and related cloud debris will promote a very unstable boundary layer by early to mid afternoon. Expecting a diurnal increase in low-level moisture coincident with the evapotranspiration cycle and lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios increasing from 14-15 to 16-17 g/kg (translated to surface dewpoints rising from 68-70 to 72-76 deg F). Forecast soundings show 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE from southwest MO into central TX. The 12 UTC model run of the NAM appears to be an unrealistic outlier solution showing enhanced low-level shear across OK during the afternoon. As convective inhibition erodes across the southern Great Plains east of a dryline/cold front and south of reinforced outflow draped across southern KS into northern MO, expecting scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon into the evening period. Severe gusts and large hail appear to be the primary severe hazards. Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms should continue along the front as it moves into TX Hill Country tonight. An elongated corridor of low-tornado potential will be maintained this outlook update from the southern Great Plains northeastward through the lower MO Valley and into the western Great Lakes. A belt of 40-kt 2 km southwesterly flow will be maintained across western into northern MO and spatially overlapping outflow in the lower MO Valley. Limited heating will temper the overall buoyancy across the northern half of MO into IA, likely tempering the overall severe risk. Additionally, with the line-parallel orientation of the deep-layer shear across this region, the expectation is for a predominantly linear storm mode, with occasional bowing segments capable of producing damaging gusts. Read more

WW 0359 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 359 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SMITH..06/03/25 ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 359 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC091-107-121-032040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JOHNSON LINN MIAMI MOC001-013-025-033-037-041-053-083-089-095-101-103-107-111-115- 117-121-127-137-159-175-177-195-205-211-032040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR BATES CALDWELL CARROLL CASS CHARITON COOPER HENRY HOWARD JACKSON JOHNSON KNOX LAFAYETTE LEWIS LINN LIVINGSTON MACON MARION MONROE PETTIS RANDOLPH RAY SALINE SHELBY SULLIVAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

MD 1090 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN KANSAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN IOWA AND WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1090 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Kansas northeastward into southeastern Iowa and west-central Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 031759Z - 032000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Widespread thunderstorms are expected this afternoon from eastern Kansas northeastward into southeastern Iowa and west-central Illinois. Severe wind gusts and large hail will be the primary threats, but a tornado or two is possible particularly across west-central Missouri and points northeastward. DISCUSSION...A strong-to-severe thunderstorm complex is intensifying in southeastern Kansas ahead of a cold front draped southwestward across the region. The leading edge of the system is more cold-pool-driven, and additional semi-discrete development has occurred to the southwest. Up to 1" hail has been reported recently with these more discrete updrafts. A continued threat for large hail and severe wind gusts is anticipated as this activity continues to develop and mature as it progresses northeastward throughout the afternoon. On the broader scale, this convection is located downstream of a mid-level shortwave trough sliding east-northeastward through the region. Ample boundary-layer moisture is present that -- combined with temperatures breaching 80 F amidst some low-level cloud cover -- is contributing to moderate instability. This will contribute to continued convective maturation this afternoon as bulk shear around 40-50 kts persists ahead of the shortwave trough. Short-term CAM guidance depicts a gradual uptick in system intensity with a mix of QLCS and semi-discrete structures. The primary threats will be severe winds and large hail with the strongest supercellular storms, as well as a slightly broader wind threat if convection along the leading cold pool edge re-intensifies. A tornado or two is possible later this afternoon in northern Missouri where any supercellular structures might be present amidst slightly greater low-level shear during peak heating. Watch issuance is likely this afternoon to address these threats. ..Flournoy/Smith.. 06/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 37749732 38669618 39299507 40119409 40499329 40539230 40319167 39649140 38999144 38239265 37549440 37089574 37129707 37749732 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will continue across the CONUS on Wednesday. A shortwave trough will move through parts of the Southwest. At the surface, a stalled boundary will be situated within the southern Great Basin. Another day of limited fire weather concerns is expected. Winds will be weak across much of the West. The shortwave trough will likely enhance surface winds in southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico. However, with precipitation occurring on previous days, it is not likely to significantly increase fire weather concerns. Near the stalled boundary, mid-level moisture will promote scattered thunderstorms primarily in the Four Corners region. Again, these areas will have been impacted by recent precipitation and lightning ignition potential appears low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will continue across the CONUS on Wednesday. A shortwave trough will move through parts of the Southwest. At the surface, a stalled boundary will be situated within the southern Great Basin. Another day of limited fire weather concerns is expected. Winds will be weak across much of the West. The shortwave trough will likely enhance surface winds in southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico. However, with precipitation occurring on previous days, it is not likely to significantly increase fire weather concerns. Near the stalled boundary, mid-level moisture will promote scattered thunderstorms primarily in the Four Corners region. Again, these areas will have been impacted by recent precipitation and lightning ignition potential appears low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will continue across the CONUS on Wednesday. A shortwave trough will move through parts of the Southwest. At the surface, a stalled boundary will be situated within the southern Great Basin. Another day of limited fire weather concerns is expected. Winds will be weak across much of the West. The shortwave trough will likely enhance surface winds in southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico. However, with precipitation occurring on previous days, it is not likely to significantly increase fire weather concerns. Near the stalled boundary, mid-level moisture will promote scattered thunderstorms primarily in the Four Corners region. Again, these areas will have been impacted by recent precipitation and lightning ignition potential appears low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will continue across the CONUS on Wednesday. A shortwave trough will move through parts of the Southwest. At the surface, a stalled boundary will be situated within the southern Great Basin. Another day of limited fire weather concerns is expected. Winds will be weak across much of the West. The shortwave trough will likely enhance surface winds in southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico. However, with precipitation occurring on previous days, it is not likely to significantly increase fire weather concerns. Near the stalled boundary, mid-level moisture will promote scattered thunderstorms primarily in the Four Corners region. Again, these areas will have been impacted by recent precipitation and lightning ignition potential appears low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will continue across the CONUS on Wednesday. A shortwave trough will move through parts of the Southwest. At the surface, a stalled boundary will be situated within the southern Great Basin. Another day of limited fire weather concerns is expected. Winds will be weak across much of the West. The shortwave trough will likely enhance surface winds in southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico. However, with precipitation occurring on previous days, it is not likely to significantly increase fire weather concerns. Near the stalled boundary, mid-level moisture will promote scattered thunderstorms primarily in the Four Corners region. Again, these areas will have been impacted by recent precipitation and lightning ignition potential appears low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more