SPC Jun 3, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

3 months 1 week ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday into Thursday night from parts of the southern High Plains towards the Ozark Plateau. ...Synopsis... A mid-level pattern featuring a large-scale positively tilted trough centered over the western CONUS will become more zonal through the period Thursday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough and associated jet streak will shift east from the Southwest into the southern/central Plains. This will result in some weak lee troughing across the southern Plains during the day Thursday. A dryline will extend along the New Mexico/Texas border and remain mostly stationary through the period. A frontal zone is forecast to extend east from this dryline across the central/southern Plains. The location of this frontal zone remains uncertain right now and is somewhat related to Day 2 convection, particularly across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Regardless of the location, these 2 features, the dryline and front, will serve as the focus for severe storm development on Thursday. ...Central/southern High Plains into the central Plains and Ozarks... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across the Texas Panhandle vicinity and perhaps along the Red River. As the low-level jet weakens by late morning, expect this convection to weaken. The intensity of this convection Thursday morning will likely have a significant impact on frontal location and the location of the greatest severe weather threat on Thursday. 12Z guidance shows recovery only as far north as southern Oklahoma with other guidance showing recovery into southern Kansas. Regardless of where this boundary settles, moderate to strong instability will develop south and west of this boundary where low 70s dewpoints are expected. Storms will likely develop Thursday afternoon along the dryline from eastern Colorado into West Texas and the Texas Panhandle. Sufficient flow will likely exist along this zone for supercells with weaker instability likely limiting storm intensity across eastern Colorado. Eventually, expect storms from the High Plains to congeal into a MCS which will likely focus along the frontal zone as it moves east-northeast. This cluster and the associated severe wind threat will likely persist through the evening and could persist into the early morning hours on Friday into eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks. ...Northeast... Weak to moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front across the Northeast on Thursday with inhibition likely eroded by mid day. Effective shear is only forecast around 20 to 30 knots which may be sufficient for some multicell clusters. The moderate instability coupled with potential for at least some storm organization may result in isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 06/03/2025 Read more

SPC Jun 3, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

3 months 1 week ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday into Thursday night from parts of the southern High Plains towards the Ozark Plateau. ...Synopsis... A mid-level pattern featuring a large-scale positively tilted trough centered over the western CONUS will become more zonal through the period Thursday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough and associated jet streak will shift east from the Southwest into the southern/central Plains. This will result in some weak lee troughing across the southern Plains during the day Thursday. A dryline will extend along the New Mexico/Texas border and remain mostly stationary through the period. A frontal zone is forecast to extend east from this dryline across the central/southern Plains. The location of this frontal zone remains uncertain right now and is somewhat related to Day 2 convection, particularly across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Regardless of the location, these 2 features, the dryline and front, will serve as the focus for severe storm development on Thursday. ...Central/southern High Plains into the central Plains and Ozarks... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across the Texas Panhandle vicinity and perhaps along the Red River. As the low-level jet weakens by late morning, expect this convection to weaken. The intensity of this convection Thursday morning will likely have a significant impact on frontal location and the location of the greatest severe weather threat on Thursday. 12Z guidance shows recovery only as far north as southern Oklahoma with other guidance showing recovery into southern Kansas. Regardless of where this boundary settles, moderate to strong instability will develop south and west of this boundary where low 70s dewpoints are expected. Storms will likely develop Thursday afternoon along the dryline from eastern Colorado into West Texas and the Texas Panhandle. Sufficient flow will likely exist along this zone for supercells with weaker instability likely limiting storm intensity across eastern Colorado. Eventually, expect storms from the High Plains to congeal into a MCS which will likely focus along the frontal zone as it moves east-northeast. This cluster and the associated severe wind threat will likely persist through the evening and could persist into the early morning hours on Friday into eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks. ...Northeast... Weak to moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front across the Northeast on Thursday with inhibition likely eroded by mid day. Effective shear is only forecast around 20 to 30 knots which may be sufficient for some multicell clusters. The moderate instability coupled with potential for at least some storm organization may result in isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 06/03/2025 Read more

SPC Jun 3, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

3 months 1 week ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday into Thursday night from parts of the southern High Plains towards the Ozark Plateau. ...Synopsis... A mid-level pattern featuring a large-scale positively tilted trough centered over the western CONUS will become more zonal through the period Thursday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough and associated jet streak will shift east from the Southwest into the southern/central Plains. This will result in some weak lee troughing across the southern Plains during the day Thursday. A dryline will extend along the New Mexico/Texas border and remain mostly stationary through the period. A frontal zone is forecast to extend east from this dryline across the central/southern Plains. The location of this frontal zone remains uncertain right now and is somewhat related to Day 2 convection, particularly across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Regardless of the location, these 2 features, the dryline and front, will serve as the focus for severe storm development on Thursday. ...Central/southern High Plains into the central Plains and Ozarks... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across the Texas Panhandle vicinity and perhaps along the Red River. As the low-level jet weakens by late morning, expect this convection to weaken. The intensity of this convection Thursday morning will likely have a significant impact on frontal location and the location of the greatest severe weather threat on Thursday. 12Z guidance shows recovery only as far north as southern Oklahoma with other guidance showing recovery into southern Kansas. Regardless of where this boundary settles, moderate to strong instability will develop south and west of this boundary where low 70s dewpoints are expected. Storms will likely develop Thursday afternoon along the dryline from eastern Colorado into West Texas and the Texas Panhandle. Sufficient flow will likely exist along this zone for supercells with weaker instability likely limiting storm intensity across eastern Colorado. Eventually, expect storms from the High Plains to congeal into a MCS which will likely focus along the frontal zone as it moves east-northeast. This cluster and the associated severe wind threat will likely persist through the evening and could persist into the early morning hours on Friday into eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks. ...Northeast... Weak to moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front across the Northeast on Thursday with inhibition likely eroded by mid day. Effective shear is only forecast around 20 to 30 knots which may be sufficient for some multicell clusters. The moderate instability coupled with potential for at least some storm organization may result in isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 06/03/2025 Read more

SPC Jun 3, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

3 months 1 week ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday into Thursday night from parts of the southern High Plains towards the Ozark Plateau. ...Synopsis... A mid-level pattern featuring a large-scale positively tilted trough centered over the western CONUS will become more zonal through the period Thursday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough and associated jet streak will shift east from the Southwest into the southern/central Plains. This will result in some weak lee troughing across the southern Plains during the day Thursday. A dryline will extend along the New Mexico/Texas border and remain mostly stationary through the period. A frontal zone is forecast to extend east from this dryline across the central/southern Plains. The location of this frontal zone remains uncertain right now and is somewhat related to Day 2 convection, particularly across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Regardless of the location, these 2 features, the dryline and front, will serve as the focus for severe storm development on Thursday. ...Central/southern High Plains into the central Plains and Ozarks... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across the Texas Panhandle vicinity and perhaps along the Red River. As the low-level jet weakens by late morning, expect this convection to weaken. The intensity of this convection Thursday morning will likely have a significant impact on frontal location and the location of the greatest severe weather threat on Thursday. 12Z guidance shows recovery only as far north as southern Oklahoma with other guidance showing recovery into southern Kansas. Regardless of where this boundary settles, moderate to strong instability will develop south and west of this boundary where low 70s dewpoints are expected. Storms will likely develop Thursday afternoon along the dryline from eastern Colorado into West Texas and the Texas Panhandle. Sufficient flow will likely exist along this zone for supercells with weaker instability likely limiting storm intensity across eastern Colorado. Eventually, expect storms from the High Plains to congeal into a MCS which will likely focus along the frontal zone as it moves east-northeast. This cluster and the associated severe wind threat will likely persist through the evening and could persist into the early morning hours on Friday into eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks. ...Northeast... Weak to moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front across the Northeast on Thursday with inhibition likely eroded by mid day. Effective shear is only forecast around 20 to 30 knots which may be sufficient for some multicell clusters. The moderate instability coupled with potential for at least some storm organization may result in isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 06/03/2025 Read more

SPC Jun 3, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

3 months 1 week ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday into Thursday night from parts of the southern High Plains towards the Ozark Plateau. ...Synopsis... A mid-level pattern featuring a large-scale positively tilted trough centered over the western CONUS will become more zonal through the period Thursday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough and associated jet streak will shift east from the Southwest into the southern/central Plains. This will result in some weak lee troughing across the southern Plains during the day Thursday. A dryline will extend along the New Mexico/Texas border and remain mostly stationary through the period. A frontal zone is forecast to extend east from this dryline across the central/southern Plains. The location of this frontal zone remains uncertain right now and is somewhat related to Day 2 convection, particularly across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Regardless of the location, these 2 features, the dryline and front, will serve as the focus for severe storm development on Thursday. ...Central/southern High Plains into the central Plains and Ozarks... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across the Texas Panhandle vicinity and perhaps along the Red River. As the low-level jet weakens by late morning, expect this convection to weaken. The intensity of this convection Thursday morning will likely have a significant impact on frontal location and the location of the greatest severe weather threat on Thursday. 12Z guidance shows recovery only as far north as southern Oklahoma with other guidance showing recovery into southern Kansas. Regardless of where this boundary settles, moderate to strong instability will develop south and west of this boundary where low 70s dewpoints are expected. Storms will likely develop Thursday afternoon along the dryline from eastern Colorado into West Texas and the Texas Panhandle. Sufficient flow will likely exist along this zone for supercells with weaker instability likely limiting storm intensity across eastern Colorado. Eventually, expect storms from the High Plains to congeal into a MCS which will likely focus along the frontal zone as it moves east-northeast. This cluster and the associated severe wind threat will likely persist through the evening and could persist into the early morning hours on Friday into eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks. ...Northeast... Weak to moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front across the Northeast on Thursday with inhibition likely eroded by mid day. Effective shear is only forecast around 20 to 30 knots which may be sufficient for some multicell clusters. The moderate instability coupled with potential for at least some storm organization may result in isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 06/03/2025 Read more

SPC Jun 3, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

3 months 1 week ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday into Thursday night from parts of the southern High Plains towards the Ozark Plateau. ...Synopsis... A mid-level pattern featuring a large-scale positively tilted trough centered over the western CONUS will become more zonal through the period Thursday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough and associated jet streak will shift east from the Southwest into the southern/central Plains. This will result in some weak lee troughing across the southern Plains during the day Thursday. A dryline will extend along the New Mexico/Texas border and remain mostly stationary through the period. A frontal zone is forecast to extend east from this dryline across the central/southern Plains. The location of this frontal zone remains uncertain right now and is somewhat related to Day 2 convection, particularly across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Regardless of the location, these 2 features, the dryline and front, will serve as the focus for severe storm development on Thursday. ...Central/southern High Plains into the central Plains and Ozarks... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across the Texas Panhandle vicinity and perhaps along the Red River. As the low-level jet weakens by late morning, expect this convection to weaken. The intensity of this convection Thursday morning will likely have a significant impact on frontal location and the location of the greatest severe weather threat on Thursday. 12Z guidance shows recovery only as far north as southern Oklahoma with other guidance showing recovery into southern Kansas. Regardless of where this boundary settles, moderate to strong instability will develop south and west of this boundary where low 70s dewpoints are expected. Storms will likely develop Thursday afternoon along the dryline from eastern Colorado into West Texas and the Texas Panhandle. Sufficient flow will likely exist along this zone for supercells with weaker instability likely limiting storm intensity across eastern Colorado. Eventually, expect storms from the High Plains to congeal into a MCS which will likely focus along the frontal zone as it moves east-northeast. This cluster and the associated severe wind threat will likely persist through the evening and could persist into the early morning hours on Friday into eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks. ...Northeast... Weak to moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front across the Northeast on Thursday with inhibition likely eroded by mid day. Effective shear is only forecast around 20 to 30 knots which may be sufficient for some multicell clusters. The moderate instability coupled with potential for at least some storm organization may result in isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 06/03/2025 Read more

SPC Jun 3, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

3 months 1 week ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday into Thursday night from parts of the southern High Plains towards the Ozark Plateau. ...Synopsis... A mid-level pattern featuring a large-scale positively tilted trough centered over the western CONUS will become more zonal through the period Thursday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough and associated jet streak will shift east from the Southwest into the southern/central Plains. This will result in some weak lee troughing across the southern Plains during the day Thursday. A dryline will extend along the New Mexico/Texas border and remain mostly stationary through the period. A frontal zone is forecast to extend east from this dryline across the central/southern Plains. The location of this frontal zone remains uncertain right now and is somewhat related to Day 2 convection, particularly across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Regardless of the location, these 2 features, the dryline and front, will serve as the focus for severe storm development on Thursday. ...Central/southern High Plains into the central Plains and Ozarks... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across the Texas Panhandle vicinity and perhaps along the Red River. As the low-level jet weakens by late morning, expect this convection to weaken. The intensity of this convection Thursday morning will likely have a significant impact on frontal location and the location of the greatest severe weather threat on Thursday. 12Z guidance shows recovery only as far north as southern Oklahoma with other guidance showing recovery into southern Kansas. Regardless of where this boundary settles, moderate to strong instability will develop south and west of this boundary where low 70s dewpoints are expected. Storms will likely develop Thursday afternoon along the dryline from eastern Colorado into West Texas and the Texas Panhandle. Sufficient flow will likely exist along this zone for supercells with weaker instability likely limiting storm intensity across eastern Colorado. Eventually, expect storms from the High Plains to congeal into a MCS which will likely focus along the frontal zone as it moves east-northeast. This cluster and the associated severe wind threat will likely persist through the evening and could persist into the early morning hours on Friday into eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks. ...Northeast... Weak to moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front across the Northeast on Thursday with inhibition likely eroded by mid day. Effective shear is only forecast around 20 to 30 knots which may be sufficient for some multicell clusters. The moderate instability coupled with potential for at least some storm organization may result in isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 06/03/2025 Read more

SPC Jun 3, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

3 months 1 week ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday into Thursday night from parts of the southern High Plains towards the Ozark Plateau. ...Synopsis... A mid-level pattern featuring a large-scale positively tilted trough centered over the western CONUS will become more zonal through the period Thursday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough and associated jet streak will shift east from the Southwest into the southern/central Plains. This will result in some weak lee troughing across the southern Plains during the day Thursday. A dryline will extend along the New Mexico/Texas border and remain mostly stationary through the period. A frontal zone is forecast to extend east from this dryline across the central/southern Plains. The location of this frontal zone remains uncertain right now and is somewhat related to Day 2 convection, particularly across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Regardless of the location, these 2 features, the dryline and front, will serve as the focus for severe storm development on Thursday. ...Central/southern High Plains into the central Plains and Ozarks... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across the Texas Panhandle vicinity and perhaps along the Red River. As the low-level jet weakens by late morning, expect this convection to weaken. The intensity of this convection Thursday morning will likely have a significant impact on frontal location and the location of the greatest severe weather threat on Thursday. 12Z guidance shows recovery only as far north as southern Oklahoma with other guidance showing recovery into southern Kansas. Regardless of where this boundary settles, moderate to strong instability will develop south and west of this boundary where low 70s dewpoints are expected. Storms will likely develop Thursday afternoon along the dryline from eastern Colorado into West Texas and the Texas Panhandle. Sufficient flow will likely exist along this zone for supercells with weaker instability likely limiting storm intensity across eastern Colorado. Eventually, expect storms from the High Plains to congeal into a MCS which will likely focus along the frontal zone as it moves east-northeast. This cluster and the associated severe wind threat will likely persist through the evening and could persist into the early morning hours on Friday into eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks. ...Northeast... Weak to moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front across the Northeast on Thursday with inhibition likely eroded by mid day. Effective shear is only forecast around 20 to 30 knots which may be sufficient for some multicell clusters. The moderate instability coupled with potential for at least some storm organization may result in isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 06/03/2025 Read more

SPC Jun 3, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

3 months 1 week ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday into Thursday night from parts of the southern High Plains towards the Ozark Plateau. ...Synopsis... A mid-level pattern featuring a large-scale positively tilted trough centered over the western CONUS will become more zonal through the period Thursday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough and associated jet streak will shift east from the Southwest into the southern/central Plains. This will result in some weak lee troughing across the southern Plains during the day Thursday. A dryline will extend along the New Mexico/Texas border and remain mostly stationary through the period. A frontal zone is forecast to extend east from this dryline across the central/southern Plains. The location of this frontal zone remains uncertain right now and is somewhat related to Day 2 convection, particularly across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Regardless of the location, these 2 features, the dryline and front, will serve as the focus for severe storm development on Thursday. ...Central/southern High Plains into the central Plains and Ozarks... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across the Texas Panhandle vicinity and perhaps along the Red River. As the low-level jet weakens by late morning, expect this convection to weaken. The intensity of this convection Thursday morning will likely have a significant impact on frontal location and the location of the greatest severe weather threat on Thursday. 12Z guidance shows recovery only as far north as southern Oklahoma with other guidance showing recovery into southern Kansas. Regardless of where this boundary settles, moderate to strong instability will develop south and west of this boundary where low 70s dewpoints are expected. Storms will likely develop Thursday afternoon along the dryline from eastern Colorado into West Texas and the Texas Panhandle. Sufficient flow will likely exist along this zone for supercells with weaker instability likely limiting storm intensity across eastern Colorado. Eventually, expect storms from the High Plains to congeal into a MCS which will likely focus along the frontal zone as it moves east-northeast. This cluster and the associated severe wind threat will likely persist through the evening and could persist into the early morning hours on Friday into eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks. ...Northeast... Weak to moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front across the Northeast on Thursday with inhibition likely eroded by mid day. Effective shear is only forecast around 20 to 30 knots which may be sufficient for some multicell clusters. The moderate instability coupled with potential for at least some storm organization may result in isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 06/03/2025 Read more

SPC Jun 3, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

3 months 1 week ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday into Thursday night from parts of the southern High Plains towards the Ozark Plateau. ...Synopsis... A mid-level pattern featuring a large-scale positively tilted trough centered over the western CONUS will become more zonal through the period Thursday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough and associated jet streak will shift east from the Southwest into the southern/central Plains. This will result in some weak lee troughing across the southern Plains during the day Thursday. A dryline will extend along the New Mexico/Texas border and remain mostly stationary through the period. A frontal zone is forecast to extend east from this dryline across the central/southern Plains. The location of this frontal zone remains uncertain right now and is somewhat related to Day 2 convection, particularly across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Regardless of the location, these 2 features, the dryline and front, will serve as the focus for severe storm development on Thursday. ...Central/southern High Plains into the central Plains and Ozarks... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across the Texas Panhandle vicinity and perhaps along the Red River. As the low-level jet weakens by late morning, expect this convection to weaken. The intensity of this convection Thursday morning will likely have a significant impact on frontal location and the location of the greatest severe weather threat on Thursday. 12Z guidance shows recovery only as far north as southern Oklahoma with other guidance showing recovery into southern Kansas. Regardless of where this boundary settles, moderate to strong instability will develop south and west of this boundary where low 70s dewpoints are expected. Storms will likely develop Thursday afternoon along the dryline from eastern Colorado into West Texas and the Texas Panhandle. Sufficient flow will likely exist along this zone for supercells with weaker instability likely limiting storm intensity across eastern Colorado. Eventually, expect storms from the High Plains to congeal into a MCS which will likely focus along the frontal zone as it moves east-northeast. This cluster and the associated severe wind threat will likely persist through the evening and could persist into the early morning hours on Friday into eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks. ...Northeast... Weak to moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front across the Northeast on Thursday with inhibition likely eroded by mid day. Effective shear is only forecast around 20 to 30 knots which may be sufficient for some multicell clusters. The moderate instability coupled with potential for at least some storm organization may result in isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 06/03/2025 Read more

SPC Jun 3, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

3 months 1 week ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday into Thursday night from parts of the southern High Plains towards the Ozark Plateau. ...Synopsis... A mid-level pattern featuring a large-scale positively tilted trough centered over the western CONUS will become more zonal through the period Thursday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough and associated jet streak will shift east from the Southwest into the southern/central Plains. This will result in some weak lee troughing across the southern Plains during the day Thursday. A dryline will extend along the New Mexico/Texas border and remain mostly stationary through the period. A frontal zone is forecast to extend east from this dryline across the central/southern Plains. The location of this frontal zone remains uncertain right now and is somewhat related to Day 2 convection, particularly across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Regardless of the location, these 2 features, the dryline and front, will serve as the focus for severe storm development on Thursday. ...Central/southern High Plains into the central Plains and Ozarks... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across the Texas Panhandle vicinity and perhaps along the Red River. As the low-level jet weakens by late morning, expect this convection to weaken. The intensity of this convection Thursday morning will likely have a significant impact on frontal location and the location of the greatest severe weather threat on Thursday. 12Z guidance shows recovery only as far north as southern Oklahoma with other guidance showing recovery into southern Kansas. Regardless of where this boundary settles, moderate to strong instability will develop south and west of this boundary where low 70s dewpoints are expected. Storms will likely develop Thursday afternoon along the dryline from eastern Colorado into West Texas and the Texas Panhandle. Sufficient flow will likely exist along this zone for supercells with weaker instability likely limiting storm intensity across eastern Colorado. Eventually, expect storms from the High Plains to congeal into a MCS which will likely focus along the frontal zone as it moves east-northeast. This cluster and the associated severe wind threat will likely persist through the evening and could persist into the early morning hours on Friday into eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks. ...Northeast... Weak to moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front across the Northeast on Thursday with inhibition likely eroded by mid day. Effective shear is only forecast around 20 to 30 knots which may be sufficient for some multicell clusters. The moderate instability coupled with potential for at least some storm organization may result in isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 06/03/2025 Read more

SPC Jun 3, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

3 months 1 week ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday into Thursday night from parts of the southern High Plains towards the Ozark Plateau. ...Synopsis... A mid-level pattern featuring a large-scale positively tilted trough centered over the western CONUS will become more zonal through the period Thursday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough and associated jet streak will shift east from the Southwest into the southern/central Plains. This will result in some weak lee troughing across the southern Plains during the day Thursday. A dryline will extend along the New Mexico/Texas border and remain mostly stationary through the period. A frontal zone is forecast to extend east from this dryline across the central/southern Plains. The location of this frontal zone remains uncertain right now and is somewhat related to Day 2 convection, particularly across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Regardless of the location, these 2 features, the dryline and front, will serve as the focus for severe storm development on Thursday. ...Central/southern High Plains into the central Plains and Ozarks... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across the Texas Panhandle vicinity and perhaps along the Red River. As the low-level jet weakens by late morning, expect this convection to weaken. The intensity of this convection Thursday morning will likely have a significant impact on frontal location and the location of the greatest severe weather threat on Thursday. 12Z guidance shows recovery only as far north as southern Oklahoma with other guidance showing recovery into southern Kansas. Regardless of where this boundary settles, moderate to strong instability will develop south and west of this boundary where low 70s dewpoints are expected. Storms will likely develop Thursday afternoon along the dryline from eastern Colorado into West Texas and the Texas Panhandle. Sufficient flow will likely exist along this zone for supercells with weaker instability likely limiting storm intensity across eastern Colorado. Eventually, expect storms from the High Plains to congeal into a MCS which will likely focus along the frontal zone as it moves east-northeast. This cluster and the associated severe wind threat will likely persist through the evening and could persist into the early morning hours on Friday into eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks. ...Northeast... Weak to moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front across the Northeast on Thursday with inhibition likely eroded by mid day. Effective shear is only forecast around 20 to 30 knots which may be sufficient for some multicell clusters. The moderate instability coupled with potential for at least some storm organization may result in isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 06/03/2025 Read more

SPC Jun 3, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

3 months 1 week ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday into Thursday night from parts of the southern High Plains towards the Ozark Plateau. ...Synopsis... A mid-level pattern featuring a large-scale positively tilted trough centered over the western CONUS will become more zonal through the period Thursday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough and associated jet streak will shift east from the Southwest into the southern/central Plains. This will result in some weak lee troughing across the southern Plains during the day Thursday. A dryline will extend along the New Mexico/Texas border and remain mostly stationary through the period. A frontal zone is forecast to extend east from this dryline across the central/southern Plains. The location of this frontal zone remains uncertain right now and is somewhat related to Day 2 convection, particularly across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Regardless of the location, these 2 features, the dryline and front, will serve as the focus for severe storm development on Thursday. ...Central/southern High Plains into the central Plains and Ozarks... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across the Texas Panhandle vicinity and perhaps along the Red River. As the low-level jet weakens by late morning, expect this convection to weaken. The intensity of this convection Thursday morning will likely have a significant impact on frontal location and the location of the greatest severe weather threat on Thursday. 12Z guidance shows recovery only as far north as southern Oklahoma with other guidance showing recovery into southern Kansas. Regardless of where this boundary settles, moderate to strong instability will develop south and west of this boundary where low 70s dewpoints are expected. Storms will likely develop Thursday afternoon along the dryline from eastern Colorado into West Texas and the Texas Panhandle. Sufficient flow will likely exist along this zone for supercells with weaker instability likely limiting storm intensity across eastern Colorado. Eventually, expect storms from the High Plains to congeal into a MCS which will likely focus along the frontal zone as it moves east-northeast. This cluster and the associated severe wind threat will likely persist through the evening and could persist into the early morning hours on Friday into eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks. ...Northeast... Weak to moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front across the Northeast on Thursday with inhibition likely eroded by mid day. Effective shear is only forecast around 20 to 30 knots which may be sufficient for some multicell clusters. The moderate instability coupled with potential for at least some storm organization may result in isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 06/03/2025 Read more

SPC Jun 3, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

3 months 1 week ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday into Thursday night from parts of the southern High Plains towards the Ozark Plateau. ...Synopsis... A mid-level pattern featuring a large-scale positively tilted trough centered over the western CONUS will become more zonal through the period Thursday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough and associated jet streak will shift east from the Southwest into the southern/central Plains. This will result in some weak lee troughing across the southern Plains during the day Thursday. A dryline will extend along the New Mexico/Texas border and remain mostly stationary through the period. A frontal zone is forecast to extend east from this dryline across the central/southern Plains. The location of this frontal zone remains uncertain right now and is somewhat related to Day 2 convection, particularly across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Regardless of the location, these 2 features, the dryline and front, will serve as the focus for severe storm development on Thursday. ...Central/southern High Plains into the central Plains and Ozarks... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across the Texas Panhandle vicinity and perhaps along the Red River. As the low-level jet weakens by late morning, expect this convection to weaken. The intensity of this convection Thursday morning will likely have a significant impact on frontal location and the location of the greatest severe weather threat on Thursday. 12Z guidance shows recovery only as far north as southern Oklahoma with other guidance showing recovery into southern Kansas. Regardless of where this boundary settles, moderate to strong instability will develop south and west of this boundary where low 70s dewpoints are expected. Storms will likely develop Thursday afternoon along the dryline from eastern Colorado into West Texas and the Texas Panhandle. Sufficient flow will likely exist along this zone for supercells with weaker instability likely limiting storm intensity across eastern Colorado. Eventually, expect storms from the High Plains to congeal into a MCS which will likely focus along the frontal zone as it moves east-northeast. This cluster and the associated severe wind threat will likely persist through the evening and could persist into the early morning hours on Friday into eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks. ...Northeast... Weak to moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front across the Northeast on Thursday with inhibition likely eroded by mid day. Effective shear is only forecast around 20 to 30 knots which may be sufficient for some multicell clusters. The moderate instability coupled with potential for at least some storm organization may result in isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 06/03/2025 Read more

SPC Jun 3, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

3 months 1 week ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday into Thursday night from parts of the southern High Plains towards the Ozark Plateau. ...Synopsis... A mid-level pattern featuring a large-scale positively tilted trough centered over the western CONUS will become more zonal through the period Thursday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough and associated jet streak will shift east from the Southwest into the southern/central Plains. This will result in some weak lee troughing across the southern Plains during the day Thursday. A dryline will extend along the New Mexico/Texas border and remain mostly stationary through the period. A frontal zone is forecast to extend east from this dryline across the central/southern Plains. The location of this frontal zone remains uncertain right now and is somewhat related to Day 2 convection, particularly across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Regardless of the location, these 2 features, the dryline and front, will serve as the focus for severe storm development on Thursday. ...Central/southern High Plains into the central Plains and Ozarks... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across the Texas Panhandle vicinity and perhaps along the Red River. As the low-level jet weakens by late morning, expect this convection to weaken. The intensity of this convection Thursday morning will likely have a significant impact on frontal location and the location of the greatest severe weather threat on Thursday. 12Z guidance shows recovery only as far north as southern Oklahoma with other guidance showing recovery into southern Kansas. Regardless of where this boundary settles, moderate to strong instability will develop south and west of this boundary where low 70s dewpoints are expected. Storms will likely develop Thursday afternoon along the dryline from eastern Colorado into West Texas and the Texas Panhandle. Sufficient flow will likely exist along this zone for supercells with weaker instability likely limiting storm intensity across eastern Colorado. Eventually, expect storms from the High Plains to congeal into a MCS which will likely focus along the frontal zone as it moves east-northeast. This cluster and the associated severe wind threat will likely persist through the evening and could persist into the early morning hours on Friday into eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks. ...Northeast... Weak to moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front across the Northeast on Thursday with inhibition likely eroded by mid day. Effective shear is only forecast around 20 to 30 knots which may be sufficient for some multicell clusters. The moderate instability coupled with potential for at least some storm organization may result in isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 06/03/2025 Read more

SPC Jun 3, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

3 months 1 week ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday into Thursday night from parts of the southern High Plains towards the Ozark Plateau. ...Synopsis... A mid-level pattern featuring a large-scale positively tilted trough centered over the western CONUS will become more zonal through the period Thursday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough and associated jet streak will shift east from the Southwest into the southern/central Plains. This will result in some weak lee troughing across the southern Plains during the day Thursday. A dryline will extend along the New Mexico/Texas border and remain mostly stationary through the period. A frontal zone is forecast to extend east from this dryline across the central/southern Plains. The location of this frontal zone remains uncertain right now and is somewhat related to Day 2 convection, particularly across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Regardless of the location, these 2 features, the dryline and front, will serve as the focus for severe storm development on Thursday. ...Central/southern High Plains into the central Plains and Ozarks... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across the Texas Panhandle vicinity and perhaps along the Red River. As the low-level jet weakens by late morning, expect this convection to weaken. The intensity of this convection Thursday morning will likely have a significant impact on frontal location and the location of the greatest severe weather threat on Thursday. 12Z guidance shows recovery only as far north as southern Oklahoma with other guidance showing recovery into southern Kansas. Regardless of where this boundary settles, moderate to strong instability will develop south and west of this boundary where low 70s dewpoints are expected. Storms will likely develop Thursday afternoon along the dryline from eastern Colorado into West Texas and the Texas Panhandle. Sufficient flow will likely exist along this zone for supercells with weaker instability likely limiting storm intensity across eastern Colorado. Eventually, expect storms from the High Plains to congeal into a MCS which will likely focus along the frontal zone as it moves east-northeast. This cluster and the associated severe wind threat will likely persist through the evening and could persist into the early morning hours on Friday into eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks. ...Northeast... Weak to moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front across the Northeast on Thursday with inhibition likely eroded by mid day. Effective shear is only forecast around 20 to 30 knots which may be sufficient for some multicell clusters. The moderate instability coupled with potential for at least some storm organization may result in isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 06/03/2025 Read more

SPC Jun 3, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

3 months 1 week ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday into Thursday night from parts of the southern High Plains towards the Ozark Plateau. ...Synopsis... A mid-level pattern featuring a large-scale positively tilted trough centered over the western CONUS will become more zonal through the period Thursday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough and associated jet streak will shift east from the Southwest into the southern/central Plains. This will result in some weak lee troughing across the southern Plains during the day Thursday. A dryline will extend along the New Mexico/Texas border and remain mostly stationary through the period. A frontal zone is forecast to extend east from this dryline across the central/southern Plains. The location of this frontal zone remains uncertain right now and is somewhat related to Day 2 convection, particularly across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Regardless of the location, these 2 features, the dryline and front, will serve as the focus for severe storm development on Thursday. ...Central/southern High Plains into the central Plains and Ozarks... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across the Texas Panhandle vicinity and perhaps along the Red River. As the low-level jet weakens by late morning, expect this convection to weaken. The intensity of this convection Thursday morning will likely have a significant impact on frontal location and the location of the greatest severe weather threat on Thursday. 12Z guidance shows recovery only as far north as southern Oklahoma with other guidance showing recovery into southern Kansas. Regardless of where this boundary settles, moderate to strong instability will develop south and west of this boundary where low 70s dewpoints are expected. Storms will likely develop Thursday afternoon along the dryline from eastern Colorado into West Texas and the Texas Panhandle. Sufficient flow will likely exist along this zone for supercells with weaker instability likely limiting storm intensity across eastern Colorado. Eventually, expect storms from the High Plains to congeal into a MCS which will likely focus along the frontal zone as it moves east-northeast. This cluster and the associated severe wind threat will likely persist through the evening and could persist into the early morning hours on Friday into eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks. ...Northeast... Weak to moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front across the Northeast on Thursday with inhibition likely eroded by mid day. Effective shear is only forecast around 20 to 30 knots which may be sufficient for some multicell clusters. The moderate instability coupled with potential for at least some storm organization may result in isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 06/03/2025 Read more

SPC Jun 3, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

3 months 1 week ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday into Thursday night from parts of the southern High Plains towards the Ozark Plateau. ...Synopsis... A mid-level pattern featuring a large-scale positively tilted trough centered over the western CONUS will become more zonal through the period Thursday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough and associated jet streak will shift east from the Southwest into the southern/central Plains. This will result in some weak lee troughing across the southern Plains during the day Thursday. A dryline will extend along the New Mexico/Texas border and remain mostly stationary through the period. A frontal zone is forecast to extend east from this dryline across the central/southern Plains. The location of this frontal zone remains uncertain right now and is somewhat related to Day 2 convection, particularly across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Regardless of the location, these 2 features, the dryline and front, will serve as the focus for severe storm development on Thursday. ...Central/southern High Plains into the central Plains and Ozarks... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across the Texas Panhandle vicinity and perhaps along the Red River. As the low-level jet weakens by late morning, expect this convection to weaken. The intensity of this convection Thursday morning will likely have a significant impact on frontal location and the location of the greatest severe weather threat on Thursday. 12Z guidance shows recovery only as far north as southern Oklahoma with other guidance showing recovery into southern Kansas. Regardless of where this boundary settles, moderate to strong instability will develop south and west of this boundary where low 70s dewpoints are expected. Storms will likely develop Thursday afternoon along the dryline from eastern Colorado into West Texas and the Texas Panhandle. Sufficient flow will likely exist along this zone for supercells with weaker instability likely limiting storm intensity across eastern Colorado. Eventually, expect storms from the High Plains to congeal into a MCS which will likely focus along the frontal zone as it moves east-northeast. This cluster and the associated severe wind threat will likely persist through the evening and could persist into the early morning hours on Friday into eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks. ...Northeast... Weak to moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front across the Northeast on Thursday with inhibition likely eroded by mid day. Effective shear is only forecast around 20 to 30 knots which may be sufficient for some multicell clusters. The moderate instability coupled with potential for at least some storm organization may result in isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 06/03/2025 Read more

SPC MD 1089

3 months 1 week ago
MD 1089 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR WESTERN OK INTO NORTHWEST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 1089 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Areas affected...western OK into northwest TX Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 031715Z - 031845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe potential will continue to increase across western OK and northwest Texas the next 1-2 hours, and watch issuance is likely by mid-afternoon. DISCUSSION...Towering cumulus is noted in visible satellite imagery ahead of a cold front across far western OK and the eastern TX Panhandle. Additional agitated cumulus is noted further south across the eastern South Plains as well. This activity is developing within an area of strong heating where temperatures have warmed well into the 80s amid mid/upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints. This is contributing to MLCAPE increasing to around 1500-2000 J/kg at midday. Continued heating and low-level theta-e advection will support further destabilization into the afternoon, along with rapidly eroding capping. Convective initiation is likely soon across far western OK, with additional storm development expected through the afternoon. Effective shear magnitudes are somewhat modest, but should improve some this afternoon. Regardless, 20-40 kt south/southwesterly flow through much of the low-levels and cloud-bearing layer will support organized storms. While isolated cells are possible across the warm sector in low-level confluence bands, the more likely scenario is for rapid development into a linear storm mode with bowing segments, likely due to deep-layer flow parallel to the surface boundary and linear forcing along the cold front. More discrete cells may be more likely across northwest TX where open warm sector convection may be more likely. Damaging gusts will be the primary hazard, though any more discrete convection could also produce isolated large hail. While tornado potential is low, it is not zero, though low-level hodographs and 0-1 km SRH are expected to remain small. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed based on convective trends. ..Leitman/Smith.. 06/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 36539950 36629893 36339850 35849838 34559835 33609850 33269865 32979909 32799942 32829975 32880034 33100068 33460073 35200032 35510021 36419980 36539950 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more
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