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3 months 1 week ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday into
Thursday night from parts of the southern High Plains towards the
Ozark Plateau.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level pattern featuring a large-scale positively tilted trough
centered over the western CONUS will become more zonal through the
period Thursday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough and associated
jet streak will shift east from the Southwest into the
southern/central Plains. This will result in some weak lee troughing
across the southern Plains during the day Thursday. A dryline will
extend along the New Mexico/Texas border and remain mostly
stationary through the period. A frontal zone is forecast to extend
east from this dryline across the central/southern Plains. The
location of this frontal zone remains uncertain right now and is
somewhat related to Day 2 convection, particularly across Oklahoma
and the Texas Panhandle. Regardless of the location, these 2
features, the dryline and front, will serve as the focus for severe
storm development on Thursday.
...Central/southern High Plains into the central Plains and
Ozarks...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period
across the Texas Panhandle vicinity and perhaps along the Red River.
As the low-level jet weakens by late morning, expect this convection
to weaken. The intensity of this convection Thursday morning will
likely have a significant impact on frontal location and the
location of the greatest severe weather threat on Thursday. 12Z
guidance shows recovery only as far north as southern Oklahoma with
other guidance showing recovery into southern Kansas. Regardless of
where this boundary settles, moderate to strong instability will
develop south and west of this boundary where low 70s dewpoints are
expected. Storms will likely develop Thursday afternoon along the
dryline from eastern Colorado into West Texas and the Texas
Panhandle. Sufficient flow will likely exist along this zone for
supercells with weaker instability likely limiting storm intensity
across eastern Colorado.
Eventually, expect storms from the High Plains to congeal into a MCS
which will likely focus along the frontal zone as it moves
east-northeast. This cluster and the associated severe wind threat
will likely persist through the evening and could persist into the
early morning hours on Friday into eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks.
...Northeast...
Weak to moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold
front across the Northeast on Thursday with inhibition likely eroded
by mid day. Effective shear is only forecast around 20 to 30 knots
which may be sufficient for some multicell clusters. The moderate
instability coupled with potential for at least some storm
organization may result in isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts.
..Bentley.. 06/03/2025
Read more
3 months 1 week ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday into
Thursday night from parts of the southern High Plains towards the
Ozark Plateau.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level pattern featuring a large-scale positively tilted trough
centered over the western CONUS will become more zonal through the
period Thursday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough and associated
jet streak will shift east from the Southwest into the
southern/central Plains. This will result in some weak lee troughing
across the southern Plains during the day Thursday. A dryline will
extend along the New Mexico/Texas border and remain mostly
stationary through the period. A frontal zone is forecast to extend
east from this dryline across the central/southern Plains. The
location of this frontal zone remains uncertain right now and is
somewhat related to Day 2 convection, particularly across Oklahoma
and the Texas Panhandle. Regardless of the location, these 2
features, the dryline and front, will serve as the focus for severe
storm development on Thursday.
...Central/southern High Plains into the central Plains and
Ozarks...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period
across the Texas Panhandle vicinity and perhaps along the Red River.
As the low-level jet weakens by late morning, expect this convection
to weaken. The intensity of this convection Thursday morning will
likely have a significant impact on frontal location and the
location of the greatest severe weather threat on Thursday. 12Z
guidance shows recovery only as far north as southern Oklahoma with
other guidance showing recovery into southern Kansas. Regardless of
where this boundary settles, moderate to strong instability will
develop south and west of this boundary where low 70s dewpoints are
expected. Storms will likely develop Thursday afternoon along the
dryline from eastern Colorado into West Texas and the Texas
Panhandle. Sufficient flow will likely exist along this zone for
supercells with weaker instability likely limiting storm intensity
across eastern Colorado.
Eventually, expect storms from the High Plains to congeal into a MCS
which will likely focus along the frontal zone as it moves
east-northeast. This cluster and the associated severe wind threat
will likely persist through the evening and could persist into the
early morning hours on Friday into eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks.
...Northeast...
Weak to moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold
front across the Northeast on Thursday with inhibition likely eroded
by mid day. Effective shear is only forecast around 20 to 30 knots
which may be sufficient for some multicell clusters. The moderate
instability coupled with potential for at least some storm
organization may result in isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts.
..Bentley.. 06/03/2025
Read more
3 months 1 week ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday into
Thursday night from parts of the southern High Plains towards the
Ozark Plateau.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level pattern featuring a large-scale positively tilted trough
centered over the western CONUS will become more zonal through the
period Thursday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough and associated
jet streak will shift east from the Southwest into the
southern/central Plains. This will result in some weak lee troughing
across the southern Plains during the day Thursday. A dryline will
extend along the New Mexico/Texas border and remain mostly
stationary through the period. A frontal zone is forecast to extend
east from this dryline across the central/southern Plains. The
location of this frontal zone remains uncertain right now and is
somewhat related to Day 2 convection, particularly across Oklahoma
and the Texas Panhandle. Regardless of the location, these 2
features, the dryline and front, will serve as the focus for severe
storm development on Thursday.
...Central/southern High Plains into the central Plains and
Ozarks...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period
across the Texas Panhandle vicinity and perhaps along the Red River.
As the low-level jet weakens by late morning, expect this convection
to weaken. The intensity of this convection Thursday morning will
likely have a significant impact on frontal location and the
location of the greatest severe weather threat on Thursday. 12Z
guidance shows recovery only as far north as southern Oklahoma with
other guidance showing recovery into southern Kansas. Regardless of
where this boundary settles, moderate to strong instability will
develop south and west of this boundary where low 70s dewpoints are
expected. Storms will likely develop Thursday afternoon along the
dryline from eastern Colorado into West Texas and the Texas
Panhandle. Sufficient flow will likely exist along this zone for
supercells with weaker instability likely limiting storm intensity
across eastern Colorado.
Eventually, expect storms from the High Plains to congeal into a MCS
which will likely focus along the frontal zone as it moves
east-northeast. This cluster and the associated severe wind threat
will likely persist through the evening and could persist into the
early morning hours on Friday into eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks.
...Northeast...
Weak to moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold
front across the Northeast on Thursday with inhibition likely eroded
by mid day. Effective shear is only forecast around 20 to 30 knots
which may be sufficient for some multicell clusters. The moderate
instability coupled with potential for at least some storm
organization may result in isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts.
..Bentley.. 06/03/2025
Read more
3 months 1 week ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday into
Thursday night from parts of the southern High Plains towards the
Ozark Plateau.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level pattern featuring a large-scale positively tilted trough
centered over the western CONUS will become more zonal through the
period Thursday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough and associated
jet streak will shift east from the Southwest into the
southern/central Plains. This will result in some weak lee troughing
across the southern Plains during the day Thursday. A dryline will
extend along the New Mexico/Texas border and remain mostly
stationary through the period. A frontal zone is forecast to extend
east from this dryline across the central/southern Plains. The
location of this frontal zone remains uncertain right now and is
somewhat related to Day 2 convection, particularly across Oklahoma
and the Texas Panhandle. Regardless of the location, these 2
features, the dryline and front, will serve as the focus for severe
storm development on Thursday.
...Central/southern High Plains into the central Plains and
Ozarks...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period
across the Texas Panhandle vicinity and perhaps along the Red River.
As the low-level jet weakens by late morning, expect this convection
to weaken. The intensity of this convection Thursday morning will
likely have a significant impact on frontal location and the
location of the greatest severe weather threat on Thursday. 12Z
guidance shows recovery only as far north as southern Oklahoma with
other guidance showing recovery into southern Kansas. Regardless of
where this boundary settles, moderate to strong instability will
develop south and west of this boundary where low 70s dewpoints are
expected. Storms will likely develop Thursday afternoon along the
dryline from eastern Colorado into West Texas and the Texas
Panhandle. Sufficient flow will likely exist along this zone for
supercells with weaker instability likely limiting storm intensity
across eastern Colorado.
Eventually, expect storms from the High Plains to congeal into a MCS
which will likely focus along the frontal zone as it moves
east-northeast. This cluster and the associated severe wind threat
will likely persist through the evening and could persist into the
early morning hours on Friday into eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks.
...Northeast...
Weak to moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold
front across the Northeast on Thursday with inhibition likely eroded
by mid day. Effective shear is only forecast around 20 to 30 knots
which may be sufficient for some multicell clusters. The moderate
instability coupled with potential for at least some storm
organization may result in isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts.
..Bentley.. 06/03/2025
Read more
3 months 1 week ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday into
Thursday night from parts of the southern High Plains towards the
Ozark Plateau.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level pattern featuring a large-scale positively tilted trough
centered over the western CONUS will become more zonal through the
period Thursday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough and associated
jet streak will shift east from the Southwest into the
southern/central Plains. This will result in some weak lee troughing
across the southern Plains during the day Thursday. A dryline will
extend along the New Mexico/Texas border and remain mostly
stationary through the period. A frontal zone is forecast to extend
east from this dryline across the central/southern Plains. The
location of this frontal zone remains uncertain right now and is
somewhat related to Day 2 convection, particularly across Oklahoma
and the Texas Panhandle. Regardless of the location, these 2
features, the dryline and front, will serve as the focus for severe
storm development on Thursday.
...Central/southern High Plains into the central Plains and
Ozarks...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period
across the Texas Panhandle vicinity and perhaps along the Red River.
As the low-level jet weakens by late morning, expect this convection
to weaken. The intensity of this convection Thursday morning will
likely have a significant impact on frontal location and the
location of the greatest severe weather threat on Thursday. 12Z
guidance shows recovery only as far north as southern Oklahoma with
other guidance showing recovery into southern Kansas. Regardless of
where this boundary settles, moderate to strong instability will
develop south and west of this boundary where low 70s dewpoints are
expected. Storms will likely develop Thursday afternoon along the
dryline from eastern Colorado into West Texas and the Texas
Panhandle. Sufficient flow will likely exist along this zone for
supercells with weaker instability likely limiting storm intensity
across eastern Colorado.
Eventually, expect storms from the High Plains to congeal into a MCS
which will likely focus along the frontal zone as it moves
east-northeast. This cluster and the associated severe wind threat
will likely persist through the evening and could persist into the
early morning hours on Friday into eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks.
...Northeast...
Weak to moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold
front across the Northeast on Thursday with inhibition likely eroded
by mid day. Effective shear is only forecast around 20 to 30 knots
which may be sufficient for some multicell clusters. The moderate
instability coupled with potential for at least some storm
organization may result in isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts.
..Bentley.. 06/03/2025
Read more
3 months 1 week ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday into
Thursday night from parts of the southern High Plains towards the
Ozark Plateau.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level pattern featuring a large-scale positively tilted trough
centered over the western CONUS will become more zonal through the
period Thursday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough and associated
jet streak will shift east from the Southwest into the
southern/central Plains. This will result in some weak lee troughing
across the southern Plains during the day Thursday. A dryline will
extend along the New Mexico/Texas border and remain mostly
stationary through the period. A frontal zone is forecast to extend
east from this dryline across the central/southern Plains. The
location of this frontal zone remains uncertain right now and is
somewhat related to Day 2 convection, particularly across Oklahoma
and the Texas Panhandle. Regardless of the location, these 2
features, the dryline and front, will serve as the focus for severe
storm development on Thursday.
...Central/southern High Plains into the central Plains and
Ozarks...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period
across the Texas Panhandle vicinity and perhaps along the Red River.
As the low-level jet weakens by late morning, expect this convection
to weaken. The intensity of this convection Thursday morning will
likely have a significant impact on frontal location and the
location of the greatest severe weather threat on Thursday. 12Z
guidance shows recovery only as far north as southern Oklahoma with
other guidance showing recovery into southern Kansas. Regardless of
where this boundary settles, moderate to strong instability will
develop south and west of this boundary where low 70s dewpoints are
expected. Storms will likely develop Thursday afternoon along the
dryline from eastern Colorado into West Texas and the Texas
Panhandle. Sufficient flow will likely exist along this zone for
supercells with weaker instability likely limiting storm intensity
across eastern Colorado.
Eventually, expect storms from the High Plains to congeal into a MCS
which will likely focus along the frontal zone as it moves
east-northeast. This cluster and the associated severe wind threat
will likely persist through the evening and could persist into the
early morning hours on Friday into eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks.
...Northeast...
Weak to moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold
front across the Northeast on Thursday with inhibition likely eroded
by mid day. Effective shear is only forecast around 20 to 30 knots
which may be sufficient for some multicell clusters. The moderate
instability coupled with potential for at least some storm
organization may result in isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts.
..Bentley.. 06/03/2025
Read more
3 months 1 week ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday into
Thursday night from parts of the southern High Plains towards the
Ozark Plateau.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level pattern featuring a large-scale positively tilted trough
centered over the western CONUS will become more zonal through the
period Thursday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough and associated
jet streak will shift east from the Southwest into the
southern/central Plains. This will result in some weak lee troughing
across the southern Plains during the day Thursday. A dryline will
extend along the New Mexico/Texas border and remain mostly
stationary through the period. A frontal zone is forecast to extend
east from this dryline across the central/southern Plains. The
location of this frontal zone remains uncertain right now and is
somewhat related to Day 2 convection, particularly across Oklahoma
and the Texas Panhandle. Regardless of the location, these 2
features, the dryline and front, will serve as the focus for severe
storm development on Thursday.
...Central/southern High Plains into the central Plains and
Ozarks...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period
across the Texas Panhandle vicinity and perhaps along the Red River.
As the low-level jet weakens by late morning, expect this convection
to weaken. The intensity of this convection Thursday morning will
likely have a significant impact on frontal location and the
location of the greatest severe weather threat on Thursday. 12Z
guidance shows recovery only as far north as southern Oklahoma with
other guidance showing recovery into southern Kansas. Regardless of
where this boundary settles, moderate to strong instability will
develop south and west of this boundary where low 70s dewpoints are
expected. Storms will likely develop Thursday afternoon along the
dryline from eastern Colorado into West Texas and the Texas
Panhandle. Sufficient flow will likely exist along this zone for
supercells with weaker instability likely limiting storm intensity
across eastern Colorado.
Eventually, expect storms from the High Plains to congeal into a MCS
which will likely focus along the frontal zone as it moves
east-northeast. This cluster and the associated severe wind threat
will likely persist through the evening and could persist into the
early morning hours on Friday into eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks.
...Northeast...
Weak to moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold
front across the Northeast on Thursday with inhibition likely eroded
by mid day. Effective shear is only forecast around 20 to 30 knots
which may be sufficient for some multicell clusters. The moderate
instability coupled with potential for at least some storm
organization may result in isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts.
..Bentley.. 06/03/2025
Read more
3 months 1 week ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday into
Thursday night from parts of the southern High Plains towards the
Ozark Plateau.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level pattern featuring a large-scale positively tilted trough
centered over the western CONUS will become more zonal through the
period Thursday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough and associated
jet streak will shift east from the Southwest into the
southern/central Plains. This will result in some weak lee troughing
across the southern Plains during the day Thursday. A dryline will
extend along the New Mexico/Texas border and remain mostly
stationary through the period. A frontal zone is forecast to extend
east from this dryline across the central/southern Plains. The
location of this frontal zone remains uncertain right now and is
somewhat related to Day 2 convection, particularly across Oklahoma
and the Texas Panhandle. Regardless of the location, these 2
features, the dryline and front, will serve as the focus for severe
storm development on Thursday.
...Central/southern High Plains into the central Plains and
Ozarks...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period
across the Texas Panhandle vicinity and perhaps along the Red River.
As the low-level jet weakens by late morning, expect this convection
to weaken. The intensity of this convection Thursday morning will
likely have a significant impact on frontal location and the
location of the greatest severe weather threat on Thursday. 12Z
guidance shows recovery only as far north as southern Oklahoma with
other guidance showing recovery into southern Kansas. Regardless of
where this boundary settles, moderate to strong instability will
develop south and west of this boundary where low 70s dewpoints are
expected. Storms will likely develop Thursday afternoon along the
dryline from eastern Colorado into West Texas and the Texas
Panhandle. Sufficient flow will likely exist along this zone for
supercells with weaker instability likely limiting storm intensity
across eastern Colorado.
Eventually, expect storms from the High Plains to congeal into a MCS
which will likely focus along the frontal zone as it moves
east-northeast. This cluster and the associated severe wind threat
will likely persist through the evening and could persist into the
early morning hours on Friday into eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks.
...Northeast...
Weak to moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold
front across the Northeast on Thursday with inhibition likely eroded
by mid day. Effective shear is only forecast around 20 to 30 knots
which may be sufficient for some multicell clusters. The moderate
instability coupled with potential for at least some storm
organization may result in isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts.
..Bentley.. 06/03/2025
Read more
3 months 1 week ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday into
Thursday night from parts of the southern High Plains towards the
Ozark Plateau.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level pattern featuring a large-scale positively tilted trough
centered over the western CONUS will become more zonal through the
period Thursday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough and associated
jet streak will shift east from the Southwest into the
southern/central Plains. This will result in some weak lee troughing
across the southern Plains during the day Thursday. A dryline will
extend along the New Mexico/Texas border and remain mostly
stationary through the period. A frontal zone is forecast to extend
east from this dryline across the central/southern Plains. The
location of this frontal zone remains uncertain right now and is
somewhat related to Day 2 convection, particularly across Oklahoma
and the Texas Panhandle. Regardless of the location, these 2
features, the dryline and front, will serve as the focus for severe
storm development on Thursday.
...Central/southern High Plains into the central Plains and
Ozarks...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period
across the Texas Panhandle vicinity and perhaps along the Red River.
As the low-level jet weakens by late morning, expect this convection
to weaken. The intensity of this convection Thursday morning will
likely have a significant impact on frontal location and the
location of the greatest severe weather threat on Thursday. 12Z
guidance shows recovery only as far north as southern Oklahoma with
other guidance showing recovery into southern Kansas. Regardless of
where this boundary settles, moderate to strong instability will
develop south and west of this boundary where low 70s dewpoints are
expected. Storms will likely develop Thursday afternoon along the
dryline from eastern Colorado into West Texas and the Texas
Panhandle. Sufficient flow will likely exist along this zone for
supercells with weaker instability likely limiting storm intensity
across eastern Colorado.
Eventually, expect storms from the High Plains to congeal into a MCS
which will likely focus along the frontal zone as it moves
east-northeast. This cluster and the associated severe wind threat
will likely persist through the evening and could persist into the
early morning hours on Friday into eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks.
...Northeast...
Weak to moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold
front across the Northeast on Thursday with inhibition likely eroded
by mid day. Effective shear is only forecast around 20 to 30 knots
which may be sufficient for some multicell clusters. The moderate
instability coupled with potential for at least some storm
organization may result in isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts.
..Bentley.. 06/03/2025
Read more
3 months 1 week ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday into
Thursday night from parts of the southern High Plains towards the
Ozark Plateau.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level pattern featuring a large-scale positively tilted trough
centered over the western CONUS will become more zonal through the
period Thursday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough and associated
jet streak will shift east from the Southwest into the
southern/central Plains. This will result in some weak lee troughing
across the southern Plains during the day Thursday. A dryline will
extend along the New Mexico/Texas border and remain mostly
stationary through the period. A frontal zone is forecast to extend
east from this dryline across the central/southern Plains. The
location of this frontal zone remains uncertain right now and is
somewhat related to Day 2 convection, particularly across Oklahoma
and the Texas Panhandle. Regardless of the location, these 2
features, the dryline and front, will serve as the focus for severe
storm development on Thursday.
...Central/southern High Plains into the central Plains and
Ozarks...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period
across the Texas Panhandle vicinity and perhaps along the Red River.
As the low-level jet weakens by late morning, expect this convection
to weaken. The intensity of this convection Thursday morning will
likely have a significant impact on frontal location and the
location of the greatest severe weather threat on Thursday. 12Z
guidance shows recovery only as far north as southern Oklahoma with
other guidance showing recovery into southern Kansas. Regardless of
where this boundary settles, moderate to strong instability will
develop south and west of this boundary where low 70s dewpoints are
expected. Storms will likely develop Thursday afternoon along the
dryline from eastern Colorado into West Texas and the Texas
Panhandle. Sufficient flow will likely exist along this zone for
supercells with weaker instability likely limiting storm intensity
across eastern Colorado.
Eventually, expect storms from the High Plains to congeal into a MCS
which will likely focus along the frontal zone as it moves
east-northeast. This cluster and the associated severe wind threat
will likely persist through the evening and could persist into the
early morning hours on Friday into eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks.
...Northeast...
Weak to moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold
front across the Northeast on Thursday with inhibition likely eroded
by mid day. Effective shear is only forecast around 20 to 30 knots
which may be sufficient for some multicell clusters. The moderate
instability coupled with potential for at least some storm
organization may result in isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts.
..Bentley.. 06/03/2025
Read more
3 months 1 week ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday into
Thursday night from parts of the southern High Plains towards the
Ozark Plateau.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level pattern featuring a large-scale positively tilted trough
centered over the western CONUS will become more zonal through the
period Thursday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough and associated
jet streak will shift east from the Southwest into the
southern/central Plains. This will result in some weak lee troughing
across the southern Plains during the day Thursday. A dryline will
extend along the New Mexico/Texas border and remain mostly
stationary through the period. A frontal zone is forecast to extend
east from this dryline across the central/southern Plains. The
location of this frontal zone remains uncertain right now and is
somewhat related to Day 2 convection, particularly across Oklahoma
and the Texas Panhandle. Regardless of the location, these 2
features, the dryline and front, will serve as the focus for severe
storm development on Thursday.
...Central/southern High Plains into the central Plains and
Ozarks...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period
across the Texas Panhandle vicinity and perhaps along the Red River.
As the low-level jet weakens by late morning, expect this convection
to weaken. The intensity of this convection Thursday morning will
likely have a significant impact on frontal location and the
location of the greatest severe weather threat on Thursday. 12Z
guidance shows recovery only as far north as southern Oklahoma with
other guidance showing recovery into southern Kansas. Regardless of
where this boundary settles, moderate to strong instability will
develop south and west of this boundary where low 70s dewpoints are
expected. Storms will likely develop Thursday afternoon along the
dryline from eastern Colorado into West Texas and the Texas
Panhandle. Sufficient flow will likely exist along this zone for
supercells with weaker instability likely limiting storm intensity
across eastern Colorado.
Eventually, expect storms from the High Plains to congeal into a MCS
which will likely focus along the frontal zone as it moves
east-northeast. This cluster and the associated severe wind threat
will likely persist through the evening and could persist into the
early morning hours on Friday into eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks.
...Northeast...
Weak to moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold
front across the Northeast on Thursday with inhibition likely eroded
by mid day. Effective shear is only forecast around 20 to 30 knots
which may be sufficient for some multicell clusters. The moderate
instability coupled with potential for at least some storm
organization may result in isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts.
..Bentley.. 06/03/2025
Read more
3 months 1 week ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday into
Thursday night from parts of the southern High Plains towards the
Ozark Plateau.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level pattern featuring a large-scale positively tilted trough
centered over the western CONUS will become more zonal through the
period Thursday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough and associated
jet streak will shift east from the Southwest into the
southern/central Plains. This will result in some weak lee troughing
across the southern Plains during the day Thursday. A dryline will
extend along the New Mexico/Texas border and remain mostly
stationary through the period. A frontal zone is forecast to extend
east from this dryline across the central/southern Plains. The
location of this frontal zone remains uncertain right now and is
somewhat related to Day 2 convection, particularly across Oklahoma
and the Texas Panhandle. Regardless of the location, these 2
features, the dryline and front, will serve as the focus for severe
storm development on Thursday.
...Central/southern High Plains into the central Plains and
Ozarks...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period
across the Texas Panhandle vicinity and perhaps along the Red River.
As the low-level jet weakens by late morning, expect this convection
to weaken. The intensity of this convection Thursday morning will
likely have a significant impact on frontal location and the
location of the greatest severe weather threat on Thursday. 12Z
guidance shows recovery only as far north as southern Oklahoma with
other guidance showing recovery into southern Kansas. Regardless of
where this boundary settles, moderate to strong instability will
develop south and west of this boundary where low 70s dewpoints are
expected. Storms will likely develop Thursday afternoon along the
dryline from eastern Colorado into West Texas and the Texas
Panhandle. Sufficient flow will likely exist along this zone for
supercells with weaker instability likely limiting storm intensity
across eastern Colorado.
Eventually, expect storms from the High Plains to congeal into a MCS
which will likely focus along the frontal zone as it moves
east-northeast. This cluster and the associated severe wind threat
will likely persist through the evening and could persist into the
early morning hours on Friday into eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks.
...Northeast...
Weak to moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold
front across the Northeast on Thursday with inhibition likely eroded
by mid day. Effective shear is only forecast around 20 to 30 knots
which may be sufficient for some multicell clusters. The moderate
instability coupled with potential for at least some storm
organization may result in isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts.
..Bentley.. 06/03/2025
Read more
3 months 1 week ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday into
Thursday night from parts of the southern High Plains towards the
Ozark Plateau.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level pattern featuring a large-scale positively tilted trough
centered over the western CONUS will become more zonal through the
period Thursday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough and associated
jet streak will shift east from the Southwest into the
southern/central Plains. This will result in some weak lee troughing
across the southern Plains during the day Thursday. A dryline will
extend along the New Mexico/Texas border and remain mostly
stationary through the period. A frontal zone is forecast to extend
east from this dryline across the central/southern Plains. The
location of this frontal zone remains uncertain right now and is
somewhat related to Day 2 convection, particularly across Oklahoma
and the Texas Panhandle. Regardless of the location, these 2
features, the dryline and front, will serve as the focus for severe
storm development on Thursday.
...Central/southern High Plains into the central Plains and
Ozarks...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period
across the Texas Panhandle vicinity and perhaps along the Red River.
As the low-level jet weakens by late morning, expect this convection
to weaken. The intensity of this convection Thursday morning will
likely have a significant impact on frontal location and the
location of the greatest severe weather threat on Thursday. 12Z
guidance shows recovery only as far north as southern Oklahoma with
other guidance showing recovery into southern Kansas. Regardless of
where this boundary settles, moderate to strong instability will
develop south and west of this boundary where low 70s dewpoints are
expected. Storms will likely develop Thursday afternoon along the
dryline from eastern Colorado into West Texas and the Texas
Panhandle. Sufficient flow will likely exist along this zone for
supercells with weaker instability likely limiting storm intensity
across eastern Colorado.
Eventually, expect storms from the High Plains to congeal into a MCS
which will likely focus along the frontal zone as it moves
east-northeast. This cluster and the associated severe wind threat
will likely persist through the evening and could persist into the
early morning hours on Friday into eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks.
...Northeast...
Weak to moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold
front across the Northeast on Thursday with inhibition likely eroded
by mid day. Effective shear is only forecast around 20 to 30 knots
which may be sufficient for some multicell clusters. The moderate
instability coupled with potential for at least some storm
organization may result in isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts.
..Bentley.. 06/03/2025
Read more
3 months 1 week ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday into
Thursday night from parts of the southern High Plains towards the
Ozark Plateau.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level pattern featuring a large-scale positively tilted trough
centered over the western CONUS will become more zonal through the
period Thursday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough and associated
jet streak will shift east from the Southwest into the
southern/central Plains. This will result in some weak lee troughing
across the southern Plains during the day Thursday. A dryline will
extend along the New Mexico/Texas border and remain mostly
stationary through the period. A frontal zone is forecast to extend
east from this dryline across the central/southern Plains. The
location of this frontal zone remains uncertain right now and is
somewhat related to Day 2 convection, particularly across Oklahoma
and the Texas Panhandle. Regardless of the location, these 2
features, the dryline and front, will serve as the focus for severe
storm development on Thursday.
...Central/southern High Plains into the central Plains and
Ozarks...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period
across the Texas Panhandle vicinity and perhaps along the Red River.
As the low-level jet weakens by late morning, expect this convection
to weaken. The intensity of this convection Thursday morning will
likely have a significant impact on frontal location and the
location of the greatest severe weather threat on Thursday. 12Z
guidance shows recovery only as far north as southern Oklahoma with
other guidance showing recovery into southern Kansas. Regardless of
where this boundary settles, moderate to strong instability will
develop south and west of this boundary where low 70s dewpoints are
expected. Storms will likely develop Thursday afternoon along the
dryline from eastern Colorado into West Texas and the Texas
Panhandle. Sufficient flow will likely exist along this zone for
supercells with weaker instability likely limiting storm intensity
across eastern Colorado.
Eventually, expect storms from the High Plains to congeal into a MCS
which will likely focus along the frontal zone as it moves
east-northeast. This cluster and the associated severe wind threat
will likely persist through the evening and could persist into the
early morning hours on Friday into eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks.
...Northeast...
Weak to moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold
front across the Northeast on Thursday with inhibition likely eroded
by mid day. Effective shear is only forecast around 20 to 30 knots
which may be sufficient for some multicell clusters. The moderate
instability coupled with potential for at least some storm
organization may result in isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts.
..Bentley.. 06/03/2025
Read more
3 months 1 week ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday into
Thursday night from parts of the southern High Plains towards the
Ozark Plateau.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level pattern featuring a large-scale positively tilted trough
centered over the western CONUS will become more zonal through the
period Thursday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough and associated
jet streak will shift east from the Southwest into the
southern/central Plains. This will result in some weak lee troughing
across the southern Plains during the day Thursday. A dryline will
extend along the New Mexico/Texas border and remain mostly
stationary through the period. A frontal zone is forecast to extend
east from this dryline across the central/southern Plains. The
location of this frontal zone remains uncertain right now and is
somewhat related to Day 2 convection, particularly across Oklahoma
and the Texas Panhandle. Regardless of the location, these 2
features, the dryline and front, will serve as the focus for severe
storm development on Thursday.
...Central/southern High Plains into the central Plains and
Ozarks...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period
across the Texas Panhandle vicinity and perhaps along the Red River.
As the low-level jet weakens by late morning, expect this convection
to weaken. The intensity of this convection Thursday morning will
likely have a significant impact on frontal location and the
location of the greatest severe weather threat on Thursday. 12Z
guidance shows recovery only as far north as southern Oklahoma with
other guidance showing recovery into southern Kansas. Regardless of
where this boundary settles, moderate to strong instability will
develop south and west of this boundary where low 70s dewpoints are
expected. Storms will likely develop Thursday afternoon along the
dryline from eastern Colorado into West Texas and the Texas
Panhandle. Sufficient flow will likely exist along this zone for
supercells with weaker instability likely limiting storm intensity
across eastern Colorado.
Eventually, expect storms from the High Plains to congeal into a MCS
which will likely focus along the frontal zone as it moves
east-northeast. This cluster and the associated severe wind threat
will likely persist through the evening and could persist into the
early morning hours on Friday into eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks.
...Northeast...
Weak to moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold
front across the Northeast on Thursday with inhibition likely eroded
by mid day. Effective shear is only forecast around 20 to 30 knots
which may be sufficient for some multicell clusters. The moderate
instability coupled with potential for at least some storm
organization may result in isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts.
..Bentley.. 06/03/2025
Read more
3 months 1 week ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday into
Thursday night from parts of the southern High Plains towards the
Ozark Plateau.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level pattern featuring a large-scale positively tilted trough
centered over the western CONUS will become more zonal through the
period Thursday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough and associated
jet streak will shift east from the Southwest into the
southern/central Plains. This will result in some weak lee troughing
across the southern Plains during the day Thursday. A dryline will
extend along the New Mexico/Texas border and remain mostly
stationary through the period. A frontal zone is forecast to extend
east from this dryline across the central/southern Plains. The
location of this frontal zone remains uncertain right now and is
somewhat related to Day 2 convection, particularly across Oklahoma
and the Texas Panhandle. Regardless of the location, these 2
features, the dryline and front, will serve as the focus for severe
storm development on Thursday.
...Central/southern High Plains into the central Plains and
Ozarks...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period
across the Texas Panhandle vicinity and perhaps along the Red River.
As the low-level jet weakens by late morning, expect this convection
to weaken. The intensity of this convection Thursday morning will
likely have a significant impact on frontal location and the
location of the greatest severe weather threat on Thursday. 12Z
guidance shows recovery only as far north as southern Oklahoma with
other guidance showing recovery into southern Kansas. Regardless of
where this boundary settles, moderate to strong instability will
develop south and west of this boundary where low 70s dewpoints are
expected. Storms will likely develop Thursday afternoon along the
dryline from eastern Colorado into West Texas and the Texas
Panhandle. Sufficient flow will likely exist along this zone for
supercells with weaker instability likely limiting storm intensity
across eastern Colorado.
Eventually, expect storms from the High Plains to congeal into a MCS
which will likely focus along the frontal zone as it moves
east-northeast. This cluster and the associated severe wind threat
will likely persist through the evening and could persist into the
early morning hours on Friday into eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks.
...Northeast...
Weak to moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold
front across the Northeast on Thursday with inhibition likely eroded
by mid day. Effective shear is only forecast around 20 to 30 knots
which may be sufficient for some multicell clusters. The moderate
instability coupled with potential for at least some storm
organization may result in isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts.
..Bentley.. 06/03/2025
Read more
3 months 1 week ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday into
Thursday night from parts of the southern High Plains towards the
Ozark Plateau.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level pattern featuring a large-scale positively tilted trough
centered over the western CONUS will become more zonal through the
period Thursday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough and associated
jet streak will shift east from the Southwest into the
southern/central Plains. This will result in some weak lee troughing
across the southern Plains during the day Thursday. A dryline will
extend along the New Mexico/Texas border and remain mostly
stationary through the period. A frontal zone is forecast to extend
east from this dryline across the central/southern Plains. The
location of this frontal zone remains uncertain right now and is
somewhat related to Day 2 convection, particularly across Oklahoma
and the Texas Panhandle. Regardless of the location, these 2
features, the dryline and front, will serve as the focus for severe
storm development on Thursday.
...Central/southern High Plains into the central Plains and
Ozarks...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period
across the Texas Panhandle vicinity and perhaps along the Red River.
As the low-level jet weakens by late morning, expect this convection
to weaken. The intensity of this convection Thursday morning will
likely have a significant impact on frontal location and the
location of the greatest severe weather threat on Thursday. 12Z
guidance shows recovery only as far north as southern Oklahoma with
other guidance showing recovery into southern Kansas. Regardless of
where this boundary settles, moderate to strong instability will
develop south and west of this boundary where low 70s dewpoints are
expected. Storms will likely develop Thursday afternoon along the
dryline from eastern Colorado into West Texas and the Texas
Panhandle. Sufficient flow will likely exist along this zone for
supercells with weaker instability likely limiting storm intensity
across eastern Colorado.
Eventually, expect storms from the High Plains to congeal into a MCS
which will likely focus along the frontal zone as it moves
east-northeast. This cluster and the associated severe wind threat
will likely persist through the evening and could persist into the
early morning hours on Friday into eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks.
...Northeast...
Weak to moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold
front across the Northeast on Thursday with inhibition likely eroded
by mid day. Effective shear is only forecast around 20 to 30 knots
which may be sufficient for some multicell clusters. The moderate
instability coupled with potential for at least some storm
organization may result in isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts.
..Bentley.. 06/03/2025
Read more
3 months 1 week ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday into
Thursday night from parts of the southern High Plains towards the
Ozark Plateau.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level pattern featuring a large-scale positively tilted trough
centered over the western CONUS will become more zonal through the
period Thursday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough and associated
jet streak will shift east from the Southwest into the
southern/central Plains. This will result in some weak lee troughing
across the southern Plains during the day Thursday. A dryline will
extend along the New Mexico/Texas border and remain mostly
stationary through the period. A frontal zone is forecast to extend
east from this dryline across the central/southern Plains. The
location of this frontal zone remains uncertain right now and is
somewhat related to Day 2 convection, particularly across Oklahoma
and the Texas Panhandle. Regardless of the location, these 2
features, the dryline and front, will serve as the focus for severe
storm development on Thursday.
...Central/southern High Plains into the central Plains and
Ozarks...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period
across the Texas Panhandle vicinity and perhaps along the Red River.
As the low-level jet weakens by late morning, expect this convection
to weaken. The intensity of this convection Thursday morning will
likely have a significant impact on frontal location and the
location of the greatest severe weather threat on Thursday. 12Z
guidance shows recovery only as far north as southern Oklahoma with
other guidance showing recovery into southern Kansas. Regardless of
where this boundary settles, moderate to strong instability will
develop south and west of this boundary where low 70s dewpoints are
expected. Storms will likely develop Thursday afternoon along the
dryline from eastern Colorado into West Texas and the Texas
Panhandle. Sufficient flow will likely exist along this zone for
supercells with weaker instability likely limiting storm intensity
across eastern Colorado.
Eventually, expect storms from the High Plains to congeal into a MCS
which will likely focus along the frontal zone as it moves
east-northeast. This cluster and the associated severe wind threat
will likely persist through the evening and could persist into the
early morning hours on Friday into eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks.
...Northeast...
Weak to moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold
front across the Northeast on Thursday with inhibition likely eroded
by mid day. Effective shear is only forecast around 20 to 30 knots
which may be sufficient for some multicell clusters. The moderate
instability coupled with potential for at least some storm
organization may result in isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts.
..Bentley.. 06/03/2025
Read more
3 months 1 week ago
MD 1089 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR WESTERN OK INTO NORTHWEST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 1089
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025
Areas affected...western OK into northwest TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 031715Z - 031845Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Severe potential will continue to increase across western
OK and northwest Texas the next 1-2 hours, and watch issuance is
likely by mid-afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Towering cumulus is noted in visible satellite imagery
ahead of a cold front across far western OK and the eastern TX
Panhandle. Additional agitated cumulus is noted further south across
the eastern South Plains as well. This activity is developing within
an area of strong heating where temperatures have warmed well into
the 80s amid mid/upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints. This is
contributing to MLCAPE increasing to around 1500-2000 J/kg at
midday. Continued heating and low-level theta-e advection will
support further destabilization into the afternoon, along with
rapidly eroding capping. Convective initiation is likely soon across
far western OK, with additional storm development expected through
the afternoon.
Effective shear magnitudes are somewhat modest, but should improve
some this afternoon. Regardless, 20-40 kt south/southwesterly flow
through much of the low-levels and cloud-bearing layer will support
organized storms. While isolated cells are possible across the warm
sector in low-level confluence bands, the more likely scenario is
for rapid development into a linear storm mode with bowing segments,
likely due to deep-layer flow parallel to the surface boundary and
linear forcing along the cold front. More discrete cells may be more
likely across northwest TX where open warm sector convection may be
more likely. Damaging gusts will be the primary hazard, though any
more discrete convection could also produce isolated large hail.
While tornado potential is low, it is not zero, though low-level
hodographs and 0-1 km SRH are expected to remain small. A severe
thunderstorm watch will likely be needed based on convective trends.
..Leitman/Smith.. 06/03/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 36539950 36629893 36339850 35849838 34559835 33609850
33269865 32979909 32799942 32829975 32880034 33100068
33460073 35200032 35510021 36419980 36539950
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Read more
3 months 1 week ago
WW 0359 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0359 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
Checked
5 years 11 months ago
Storm Prediction Center
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