Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will continue across the CONUS on Wednesday. A shortwave trough will move through parts of the Southwest. At the surface, a stalled boundary will be situated within the southern Great Basin. Another day of limited fire weather concerns is expected. Winds will be weak across much of the West. The shortwave trough will likely enhance surface winds in southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico. However, with precipitation occurring on previous days, it is not likely to significantly increase fire weather concerns. Near the stalled boundary, mid-level moisture will promote scattered thunderstorms primarily in the Four Corners region. Again, these areas will have been impacted by recent precipitation and lightning ignition potential appears low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will continue across the CONUS on Wednesday. A shortwave trough will move through parts of the Southwest. At the surface, a stalled boundary will be situated within the southern Great Basin. Another day of limited fire weather concerns is expected. Winds will be weak across much of the West. The shortwave trough will likely enhance surface winds in southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico. However, with precipitation occurring on previous days, it is not likely to significantly increase fire weather concerns. Near the stalled boundary, mid-level moisture will promote scattered thunderstorms primarily in the Four Corners region. Again, these areas will have been impacted by recent precipitation and lightning ignition potential appears low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will continue across the CONUS on Wednesday. A shortwave trough will move through parts of the Southwest. At the surface, a stalled boundary will be situated within the southern Great Basin. Another day of limited fire weather concerns is expected. Winds will be weak across much of the West. The shortwave trough will likely enhance surface winds in southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico. However, with precipitation occurring on previous days, it is not likely to significantly increase fire weather concerns. Near the stalled boundary, mid-level moisture will promote scattered thunderstorms primarily in the Four Corners region. Again, these areas will have been impacted by recent precipitation and lightning ignition potential appears low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will continue across the CONUS on Wednesday. A shortwave trough will move through parts of the Southwest. At the surface, a stalled boundary will be situated within the southern Great Basin. Another day of limited fire weather concerns is expected. Winds will be weak across much of the West. The shortwave trough will likely enhance surface winds in southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico. However, with precipitation occurring on previous days, it is not likely to significantly increase fire weather concerns. Near the stalled boundary, mid-level moisture will promote scattered thunderstorms primarily in the Four Corners region. Again, these areas will have been impacted by recent precipitation and lightning ignition potential appears low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will continue across the CONUS on Wednesday. A shortwave trough will move through parts of the Southwest. At the surface, a stalled boundary will be situated within the southern Great Basin. Another day of limited fire weather concerns is expected. Winds will be weak across much of the West. The shortwave trough will likely enhance surface winds in southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico. However, with precipitation occurring on previous days, it is not likely to significantly increase fire weather concerns. Near the stalled boundary, mid-level moisture will promote scattered thunderstorms primarily in the Four Corners region. Again, these areas will have been impacted by recent precipitation and lightning ignition potential appears low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will continue across the CONUS on Wednesday. A shortwave trough will move through parts of the Southwest. At the surface, a stalled boundary will be situated within the southern Great Basin. Another day of limited fire weather concerns is expected. Winds will be weak across much of the West. The shortwave trough will likely enhance surface winds in southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico. However, with precipitation occurring on previous days, it is not likely to significantly increase fire weather concerns. Near the stalled boundary, mid-level moisture will promote scattered thunderstorms primarily in the Four Corners region. Again, these areas will have been impacted by recent precipitation and lightning ignition potential appears low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will continue across the CONUS on Wednesday. A shortwave trough will move through parts of the Southwest. At the surface, a stalled boundary will be situated within the southern Great Basin. Another day of limited fire weather concerns is expected. Winds will be weak across much of the West. The shortwave trough will likely enhance surface winds in southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico. However, with precipitation occurring on previous days, it is not likely to significantly increase fire weather concerns. Near the stalled boundary, mid-level moisture will promote scattered thunderstorms primarily in the Four Corners region. Again, these areas will have been impacted by recent precipitation and lightning ignition potential appears low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will continue across the CONUS on Wednesday. A shortwave trough will move through parts of the Southwest. At the surface, a stalled boundary will be situated within the southern Great Basin. Another day of limited fire weather concerns is expected. Winds will be weak across much of the West. The shortwave trough will likely enhance surface winds in southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico. However, with precipitation occurring on previous days, it is not likely to significantly increase fire weather concerns. Near the stalled boundary, mid-level moisture will promote scattered thunderstorms primarily in the Four Corners region. Again, these areas will have been impacted by recent precipitation and lightning ignition potential appears low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will continue across the CONUS on Wednesday. A shortwave trough will move through parts of the Southwest. At the surface, a stalled boundary will be situated within the southern Great Basin. Another day of limited fire weather concerns is expected. Winds will be weak across much of the West. The shortwave trough will likely enhance surface winds in southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico. However, with precipitation occurring on previous days, it is not likely to significantly increase fire weather concerns. Near the stalled boundary, mid-level moisture will promote scattered thunderstorms primarily in the Four Corners region. Again, these areas will have been impacted by recent precipitation and lightning ignition potential appears low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will continue across the CONUS on Wednesday. A shortwave trough will move through parts of the Southwest. At the surface, a stalled boundary will be situated within the southern Great Basin. Another day of limited fire weather concerns is expected. Winds will be weak across much of the West. The shortwave trough will likely enhance surface winds in southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico. However, with precipitation occurring on previous days, it is not likely to significantly increase fire weather concerns. Near the stalled boundary, mid-level moisture will promote scattered thunderstorms primarily in the Four Corners region. Again, these areas will have been impacted by recent precipitation and lightning ignition potential appears low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0360 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0360 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0360 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0360 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday into Thursday night from parts of the southern High Plains towards the Ozark Plateau. ...Synopsis... A mid-level pattern featuring a large-scale positively tilted trough centered over the western CONUS will become more zonal through the period Thursday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough and associated jet streak will shift east from the Southwest into the southern/central Plains. This will result in some weak lee troughing across the southern Plains during the day Thursday. A dryline will extend along the New Mexico/Texas border and remain mostly stationary through the period. A frontal zone is forecast to extend east from this dryline across the central/southern Plains. The location of this frontal zone remains uncertain right now and is somewhat related to Day 2 convection, particularly across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Regardless of the location, these 2 features, the dryline and front, will serve as the focus for severe storm development on Thursday. ...Central/southern High Plains into the central Plains and Ozarks... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across the Texas Panhandle vicinity and perhaps along the Red River. As the low-level jet weakens by late morning, expect this convection to weaken. The intensity of this convection Thursday morning will likely have a significant impact on frontal location and the location of the greatest severe weather threat on Thursday. 12Z guidance shows recovery only as far north as southern Oklahoma with other guidance showing recovery into southern Kansas. Regardless of where this boundary settles, moderate to strong instability will develop south and west of this boundary where low 70s dewpoints are expected. Storms will likely develop Thursday afternoon along the dryline from eastern Colorado into West Texas and the Texas Panhandle. Sufficient flow will likely exist along this zone for supercells with weaker instability likely limiting storm intensity across eastern Colorado. Eventually, expect storms from the High Plains to congeal into a MCS which will likely focus along the frontal zone as it moves east-northeast. This cluster and the associated severe wind threat will likely persist through the evening and could persist into the early morning hours on Friday into eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks. ...Northeast... Weak to moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front across the Northeast on Thursday with inhibition likely eroded by mid day. Effective shear is only forecast around 20 to 30 knots which may be sufficient for some multicell clusters. The moderate instability coupled with potential for at least some storm organization may result in isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 06/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday into Thursday night from parts of the southern High Plains towards the Ozark Plateau. ...Synopsis... A mid-level pattern featuring a large-scale positively tilted trough centered over the western CONUS will become more zonal through the period Thursday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough and associated jet streak will shift east from the Southwest into the southern/central Plains. This will result in some weak lee troughing across the southern Plains during the day Thursday. A dryline will extend along the New Mexico/Texas border and remain mostly stationary through the period. A frontal zone is forecast to extend east from this dryline across the central/southern Plains. The location of this frontal zone remains uncertain right now and is somewhat related to Day 2 convection, particularly across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Regardless of the location, these 2 features, the dryline and front, will serve as the focus for severe storm development on Thursday. ...Central/southern High Plains into the central Plains and Ozarks... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across the Texas Panhandle vicinity and perhaps along the Red River. As the low-level jet weakens by late morning, expect this convection to weaken. The intensity of this convection Thursday morning will likely have a significant impact on frontal location and the location of the greatest severe weather threat on Thursday. 12Z guidance shows recovery only as far north as southern Oklahoma with other guidance showing recovery into southern Kansas. Regardless of where this boundary settles, moderate to strong instability will develop south and west of this boundary where low 70s dewpoints are expected. Storms will likely develop Thursday afternoon along the dryline from eastern Colorado into West Texas and the Texas Panhandle. Sufficient flow will likely exist along this zone for supercells with weaker instability likely limiting storm intensity across eastern Colorado. Eventually, expect storms from the High Plains to congeal into a MCS which will likely focus along the frontal zone as it moves east-northeast. This cluster and the associated severe wind threat will likely persist through the evening and could persist into the early morning hours on Friday into eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks. ...Northeast... Weak to moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front across the Northeast on Thursday with inhibition likely eroded by mid day. Effective shear is only forecast around 20 to 30 knots which may be sufficient for some multicell clusters. The moderate instability coupled with potential for at least some storm organization may result in isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 06/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday into Thursday night from parts of the southern High Plains towards the Ozark Plateau. ...Synopsis... A mid-level pattern featuring a large-scale positively tilted trough centered over the western CONUS will become more zonal through the period Thursday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough and associated jet streak will shift east from the Southwest into the southern/central Plains. This will result in some weak lee troughing across the southern Plains during the day Thursday. A dryline will extend along the New Mexico/Texas border and remain mostly stationary through the period. A frontal zone is forecast to extend east from this dryline across the central/southern Plains. The location of this frontal zone remains uncertain right now and is somewhat related to Day 2 convection, particularly across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Regardless of the location, these 2 features, the dryline and front, will serve as the focus for severe storm development on Thursday. ...Central/southern High Plains into the central Plains and Ozarks... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across the Texas Panhandle vicinity and perhaps along the Red River. As the low-level jet weakens by late morning, expect this convection to weaken. The intensity of this convection Thursday morning will likely have a significant impact on frontal location and the location of the greatest severe weather threat on Thursday. 12Z guidance shows recovery only as far north as southern Oklahoma with other guidance showing recovery into southern Kansas. Regardless of where this boundary settles, moderate to strong instability will develop south and west of this boundary where low 70s dewpoints are expected. Storms will likely develop Thursday afternoon along the dryline from eastern Colorado into West Texas and the Texas Panhandle. Sufficient flow will likely exist along this zone for supercells with weaker instability likely limiting storm intensity across eastern Colorado. Eventually, expect storms from the High Plains to congeal into a MCS which will likely focus along the frontal zone as it moves east-northeast. This cluster and the associated severe wind threat will likely persist through the evening and could persist into the early morning hours on Friday into eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks. ...Northeast... Weak to moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front across the Northeast on Thursday with inhibition likely eroded by mid day. Effective shear is only forecast around 20 to 30 knots which may be sufficient for some multicell clusters. The moderate instability coupled with potential for at least some storm organization may result in isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 06/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday into Thursday night from parts of the southern High Plains towards the Ozark Plateau. ...Synopsis... A mid-level pattern featuring a large-scale positively tilted trough centered over the western CONUS will become more zonal through the period Thursday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough and associated jet streak will shift east from the Southwest into the southern/central Plains. This will result in some weak lee troughing across the southern Plains during the day Thursday. A dryline will extend along the New Mexico/Texas border and remain mostly stationary through the period. A frontal zone is forecast to extend east from this dryline across the central/southern Plains. The location of this frontal zone remains uncertain right now and is somewhat related to Day 2 convection, particularly across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Regardless of the location, these 2 features, the dryline and front, will serve as the focus for severe storm development on Thursday. ...Central/southern High Plains into the central Plains and Ozarks... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across the Texas Panhandle vicinity and perhaps along the Red River. As the low-level jet weakens by late morning, expect this convection to weaken. The intensity of this convection Thursday morning will likely have a significant impact on frontal location and the location of the greatest severe weather threat on Thursday. 12Z guidance shows recovery only as far north as southern Oklahoma with other guidance showing recovery into southern Kansas. Regardless of where this boundary settles, moderate to strong instability will develop south and west of this boundary where low 70s dewpoints are expected. Storms will likely develop Thursday afternoon along the dryline from eastern Colorado into West Texas and the Texas Panhandle. Sufficient flow will likely exist along this zone for supercells with weaker instability likely limiting storm intensity across eastern Colorado. Eventually, expect storms from the High Plains to congeal into a MCS which will likely focus along the frontal zone as it moves east-northeast. This cluster and the associated severe wind threat will likely persist through the evening and could persist into the early morning hours on Friday into eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks. ...Northeast... Weak to moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front across the Northeast on Thursday with inhibition likely eroded by mid day. Effective shear is only forecast around 20 to 30 knots which may be sufficient for some multicell clusters. The moderate instability coupled with potential for at least some storm organization may result in isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 06/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday into Thursday night from parts of the southern High Plains towards the Ozark Plateau. ...Synopsis... A mid-level pattern featuring a large-scale positively tilted trough centered over the western CONUS will become more zonal through the period Thursday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough and associated jet streak will shift east from the Southwest into the southern/central Plains. This will result in some weak lee troughing across the southern Plains during the day Thursday. A dryline will extend along the New Mexico/Texas border and remain mostly stationary through the period. A frontal zone is forecast to extend east from this dryline across the central/southern Plains. The location of this frontal zone remains uncertain right now and is somewhat related to Day 2 convection, particularly across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Regardless of the location, these 2 features, the dryline and front, will serve as the focus for severe storm development on Thursday. ...Central/southern High Plains into the central Plains and Ozarks... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across the Texas Panhandle vicinity and perhaps along the Red River. As the low-level jet weakens by late morning, expect this convection to weaken. The intensity of this convection Thursday morning will likely have a significant impact on frontal location and the location of the greatest severe weather threat on Thursday. 12Z guidance shows recovery only as far north as southern Oklahoma with other guidance showing recovery into southern Kansas. Regardless of where this boundary settles, moderate to strong instability will develop south and west of this boundary where low 70s dewpoints are expected. Storms will likely develop Thursday afternoon along the dryline from eastern Colorado into West Texas and the Texas Panhandle. Sufficient flow will likely exist along this zone for supercells with weaker instability likely limiting storm intensity across eastern Colorado. Eventually, expect storms from the High Plains to congeal into a MCS which will likely focus along the frontal zone as it moves east-northeast. This cluster and the associated severe wind threat will likely persist through the evening and could persist into the early morning hours on Friday into eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks. ...Northeast... Weak to moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front across the Northeast on Thursday with inhibition likely eroded by mid day. Effective shear is only forecast around 20 to 30 knots which may be sufficient for some multicell clusters. The moderate instability coupled with potential for at least some storm organization may result in isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 06/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday into Thursday night from parts of the southern High Plains towards the Ozark Plateau. ...Synopsis... A mid-level pattern featuring a large-scale positively tilted trough centered over the western CONUS will become more zonal through the period Thursday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough and associated jet streak will shift east from the Southwest into the southern/central Plains. This will result in some weak lee troughing across the southern Plains during the day Thursday. A dryline will extend along the New Mexico/Texas border and remain mostly stationary through the period. A frontal zone is forecast to extend east from this dryline across the central/southern Plains. The location of this frontal zone remains uncertain right now and is somewhat related to Day 2 convection, particularly across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Regardless of the location, these 2 features, the dryline and front, will serve as the focus for severe storm development on Thursday. ...Central/southern High Plains into the central Plains and Ozarks... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across the Texas Panhandle vicinity and perhaps along the Red River. As the low-level jet weakens by late morning, expect this convection to weaken. The intensity of this convection Thursday morning will likely have a significant impact on frontal location and the location of the greatest severe weather threat on Thursday. 12Z guidance shows recovery only as far north as southern Oklahoma with other guidance showing recovery into southern Kansas. Regardless of where this boundary settles, moderate to strong instability will develop south and west of this boundary where low 70s dewpoints are expected. Storms will likely develop Thursday afternoon along the dryline from eastern Colorado into West Texas and the Texas Panhandle. Sufficient flow will likely exist along this zone for supercells with weaker instability likely limiting storm intensity across eastern Colorado. Eventually, expect storms from the High Plains to congeal into a MCS which will likely focus along the frontal zone as it moves east-northeast. This cluster and the associated severe wind threat will likely persist through the evening and could persist into the early morning hours on Friday into eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks. ...Northeast... Weak to moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front across the Northeast on Thursday with inhibition likely eroded by mid day. Effective shear is only forecast around 20 to 30 knots which may be sufficient for some multicell clusters. The moderate instability coupled with potential for at least some storm organization may result in isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 06/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday into Thursday night from parts of the southern High Plains towards the Ozark Plateau. ...Synopsis... A mid-level pattern featuring a large-scale positively tilted trough centered over the western CONUS will become more zonal through the period Thursday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough and associated jet streak will shift east from the Southwest into the southern/central Plains. This will result in some weak lee troughing across the southern Plains during the day Thursday. A dryline will extend along the New Mexico/Texas border and remain mostly stationary through the period. A frontal zone is forecast to extend east from this dryline across the central/southern Plains. The location of this frontal zone remains uncertain right now and is somewhat related to Day 2 convection, particularly across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Regardless of the location, these 2 features, the dryline and front, will serve as the focus for severe storm development on Thursday. ...Central/southern High Plains into the central Plains and Ozarks... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across the Texas Panhandle vicinity and perhaps along the Red River. As the low-level jet weakens by late morning, expect this convection to weaken. The intensity of this convection Thursday morning will likely have a significant impact on frontal location and the location of the greatest severe weather threat on Thursday. 12Z guidance shows recovery only as far north as southern Oklahoma with other guidance showing recovery into southern Kansas. Regardless of where this boundary settles, moderate to strong instability will develop south and west of this boundary where low 70s dewpoints are expected. Storms will likely develop Thursday afternoon along the dryline from eastern Colorado into West Texas and the Texas Panhandle. Sufficient flow will likely exist along this zone for supercells with weaker instability likely limiting storm intensity across eastern Colorado. Eventually, expect storms from the High Plains to congeal into a MCS which will likely focus along the frontal zone as it moves east-northeast. This cluster and the associated severe wind threat will likely persist through the evening and could persist into the early morning hours on Friday into eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks. ...Northeast... Weak to moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front across the Northeast on Thursday with inhibition likely eroded by mid day. Effective shear is only forecast around 20 to 30 knots which may be sufficient for some multicell clusters. The moderate instability coupled with potential for at least some storm organization may result in isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 06/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday into Thursday night from parts of the southern High Plains towards the Ozark Plateau. ...Synopsis... A mid-level pattern featuring a large-scale positively tilted trough centered over the western CONUS will become more zonal through the period Thursday. A weak mid-level shortwave trough and associated jet streak will shift east from the Southwest into the southern/central Plains. This will result in some weak lee troughing across the southern Plains during the day Thursday. A dryline will extend along the New Mexico/Texas border and remain mostly stationary through the period. A frontal zone is forecast to extend east from this dryline across the central/southern Plains. The location of this frontal zone remains uncertain right now and is somewhat related to Day 2 convection, particularly across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Regardless of the location, these 2 features, the dryline and front, will serve as the focus for severe storm development on Thursday. ...Central/southern High Plains into the central Plains and Ozarks... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across the Texas Panhandle vicinity and perhaps along the Red River. As the low-level jet weakens by late morning, expect this convection to weaken. The intensity of this convection Thursday morning will likely have a significant impact on frontal location and the location of the greatest severe weather threat on Thursday. 12Z guidance shows recovery only as far north as southern Oklahoma with other guidance showing recovery into southern Kansas. Regardless of where this boundary settles, moderate to strong instability will develop south and west of this boundary where low 70s dewpoints are expected. Storms will likely develop Thursday afternoon along the dryline from eastern Colorado into West Texas and the Texas Panhandle. Sufficient flow will likely exist along this zone for supercells with weaker instability likely limiting storm intensity across eastern Colorado. Eventually, expect storms from the High Plains to congeal into a MCS which will likely focus along the frontal zone as it moves east-northeast. This cluster and the associated severe wind threat will likely persist through the evening and could persist into the early morning hours on Friday into eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks. ...Northeast... Weak to moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of a cold front across the Northeast on Thursday with inhibition likely eroded by mid day. Effective shear is only forecast around 20 to 30 knots which may be sufficient for some multicell clusters. The moderate instability coupled with potential for at least some storm organization may result in isolated large hail/damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 06/03/2025 Read more