Severe Storms

MD 1090 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN KANSAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN IOWA AND WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1090 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Kansas northeastward into southeastern Iowa and west-central Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 031759Z - 032000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Widespread thunderstorms are expected this afternoon from eastern Kansas northeastward into southeastern Iowa and west-central Illinois. Severe wind gusts and large hail will be the primary threats, but a tornado or two is possible particularly across west-central Missouri and points northeastward. DISCUSSION...A strong-to-severe thunderstorm complex is intensifying in southeastern Kansas ahead of a cold front draped southwestward across the region. The leading edge of the system is more cold-pool-driven, and additional semi-discrete development has occurred to the southwest. Up to 1" hail has been reported recently with these more discrete updrafts. A continued threat for large hail and severe wind gusts is anticipated as this activity continues to develop and mature as it progresses northeastward throughout the afternoon. On the broader scale, this convection is located downstream of a mid-level shortwave trough sliding east-northeastward through the region. Ample boundary-layer moisture is present that -- combined with temperatures breaching 80 F amidst some low-level cloud cover -- is contributing to moderate instability. This will contribute to continued convective maturation this afternoon as bulk shear around 40-50 kts persists ahead of the shortwave trough. Short-term CAM guidance depicts a gradual uptick in system intensity with a mix of QLCS and semi-discrete structures. The primary threats will be severe winds and large hail with the strongest supercellular storms, as well as a slightly broader wind threat if convection along the leading cold pool edge re-intensifies. A tornado or two is possible later this afternoon in northern Missouri where any supercellular structures might be present amidst slightly greater low-level shear during peak heating. Watch issuance is likely this afternoon to address these threats. ..Flournoy/Smith.. 06/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 37749732 38669618 39299507 40119409 40499329 40539230 40319167 39649140 38999144 38239265 37549440 37089574 37129707 37749732 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will continue across the CONUS on Wednesday. A shortwave trough will move through parts of the Southwest. At the surface, a stalled boundary will be situated within the southern Great Basin. Another day of limited fire weather concerns is expected. Winds will be weak across much of the West. The shortwave trough will likely enhance surface winds in southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico. However, with precipitation occurring on previous days, it is not likely to significantly increase fire weather concerns. Near the stalled boundary, mid-level moisture will promote scattered thunderstorms primarily in the Four Corners region. Again, these areas will have been impacted by recent precipitation and lightning ignition potential appears low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will continue across the CONUS on Wednesday. A shortwave trough will move through parts of the Southwest. At the surface, a stalled boundary will be situated within the southern Great Basin. Another day of limited fire weather concerns is expected. Winds will be weak across much of the West. The shortwave trough will likely enhance surface winds in southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico. However, with precipitation occurring on previous days, it is not likely to significantly increase fire weather concerns. Near the stalled boundary, mid-level moisture will promote scattered thunderstorms primarily in the Four Corners region. Again, these areas will have been impacted by recent precipitation and lightning ignition potential appears low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will continue across the CONUS on Wednesday. A shortwave trough will move through parts of the Southwest. At the surface, a stalled boundary will be situated within the southern Great Basin. Another day of limited fire weather concerns is expected. Winds will be weak across much of the West. The shortwave trough will likely enhance surface winds in southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico. However, with precipitation occurring on previous days, it is not likely to significantly increase fire weather concerns. Near the stalled boundary, mid-level moisture will promote scattered thunderstorms primarily in the Four Corners region. Again, these areas will have been impacted by recent precipitation and lightning ignition potential appears low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will continue across the CONUS on Wednesday. A shortwave trough will move through parts of the Southwest. At the surface, a stalled boundary will be situated within the southern Great Basin. Another day of limited fire weather concerns is expected. Winds will be weak across much of the West. The shortwave trough will likely enhance surface winds in southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico. However, with precipitation occurring on previous days, it is not likely to significantly increase fire weather concerns. Near the stalled boundary, mid-level moisture will promote scattered thunderstorms primarily in the Four Corners region. Again, these areas will have been impacted by recent precipitation and lightning ignition potential appears low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will continue across the CONUS on Wednesday. A shortwave trough will move through parts of the Southwest. At the surface, a stalled boundary will be situated within the southern Great Basin. Another day of limited fire weather concerns is expected. Winds will be weak across much of the West. The shortwave trough will likely enhance surface winds in southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico. However, with precipitation occurring on previous days, it is not likely to significantly increase fire weather concerns. Near the stalled boundary, mid-level moisture will promote scattered thunderstorms primarily in the Four Corners region. Again, these areas will have been impacted by recent precipitation and lightning ignition potential appears low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will continue across the CONUS on Wednesday. A shortwave trough will move through parts of the Southwest. At the surface, a stalled boundary will be situated within the southern Great Basin. Another day of limited fire weather concerns is expected. Winds will be weak across much of the West. The shortwave trough will likely enhance surface winds in southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico. However, with precipitation occurring on previous days, it is not likely to significantly increase fire weather concerns. Near the stalled boundary, mid-level moisture will promote scattered thunderstorms primarily in the Four Corners region. Again, these areas will have been impacted by recent precipitation and lightning ignition potential appears low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will continue across the CONUS on Wednesday. A shortwave trough will move through parts of the Southwest. At the surface, a stalled boundary will be situated within the southern Great Basin. Another day of limited fire weather concerns is expected. Winds will be weak across much of the West. The shortwave trough will likely enhance surface winds in southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico. However, with precipitation occurring on previous days, it is not likely to significantly increase fire weather concerns. Near the stalled boundary, mid-level moisture will promote scattered thunderstorms primarily in the Four Corners region. Again, these areas will have been impacted by recent precipitation and lightning ignition potential appears low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will continue across the CONUS on Wednesday. A shortwave trough will move through parts of the Southwest. At the surface, a stalled boundary will be situated within the southern Great Basin. Another day of limited fire weather concerns is expected. Winds will be weak across much of the West. The shortwave trough will likely enhance surface winds in southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico. However, with precipitation occurring on previous days, it is not likely to significantly increase fire weather concerns. Near the stalled boundary, mid-level moisture will promote scattered thunderstorms primarily in the Four Corners region. Again, these areas will have been impacted by recent precipitation and lightning ignition potential appears low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will continue across the CONUS on Wednesday. A shortwave trough will move through parts of the Southwest. At the surface, a stalled boundary will be situated within the southern Great Basin. Another day of limited fire weather concerns is expected. Winds will be weak across much of the West. The shortwave trough will likely enhance surface winds in southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico. However, with precipitation occurring on previous days, it is not likely to significantly increase fire weather concerns. Near the stalled boundary, mid-level moisture will promote scattered thunderstorms primarily in the Four Corners region. Again, these areas will have been impacted by recent precipitation and lightning ignition potential appears low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will continue across the CONUS on Wednesday. A shortwave trough will move through parts of the Southwest. At the surface, a stalled boundary will be situated within the southern Great Basin. Another day of limited fire weather concerns is expected. Winds will be weak across much of the West. The shortwave trough will likely enhance surface winds in southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico. However, with precipitation occurring on previous days, it is not likely to significantly increase fire weather concerns. Near the stalled boundary, mid-level moisture will promote scattered thunderstorms primarily in the Four Corners region. Again, these areas will have been impacted by recent precipitation and lightning ignition potential appears low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will continue across the CONUS on Wednesday. A shortwave trough will move through parts of the Southwest. At the surface, a stalled boundary will be situated within the southern Great Basin. Another day of limited fire weather concerns is expected. Winds will be weak across much of the West. The shortwave trough will likely enhance surface winds in southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico. However, with precipitation occurring on previous days, it is not likely to significantly increase fire weather concerns. Near the stalled boundary, mid-level moisture will promote scattered thunderstorms primarily in the Four Corners region. Again, these areas will have been impacted by recent precipitation and lightning ignition potential appears low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will continue across the CONUS on Wednesday. A shortwave trough will move through parts of the Southwest. At the surface, a stalled boundary will be situated within the southern Great Basin. Another day of limited fire weather concerns is expected. Winds will be weak across much of the West. The shortwave trough will likely enhance surface winds in southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico. However, with precipitation occurring on previous days, it is not likely to significantly increase fire weather concerns. Near the stalled boundary, mid-level moisture will promote scattered thunderstorms primarily in the Four Corners region. Again, these areas will have been impacted by recent precipitation and lightning ignition potential appears low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will continue across the CONUS on Wednesday. A shortwave trough will move through parts of the Southwest. At the surface, a stalled boundary will be situated within the southern Great Basin. Another day of limited fire weather concerns is expected. Winds will be weak across much of the West. The shortwave trough will likely enhance surface winds in southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico. However, with precipitation occurring on previous days, it is not likely to significantly increase fire weather concerns. Near the stalled boundary, mid-level moisture will promote scattered thunderstorms primarily in the Four Corners region. Again, these areas will have been impacted by recent precipitation and lightning ignition potential appears low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will continue across the CONUS on Wednesday. A shortwave trough will move through parts of the Southwest. At the surface, a stalled boundary will be situated within the southern Great Basin. Another day of limited fire weather concerns is expected. Winds will be weak across much of the West. The shortwave trough will likely enhance surface winds in southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico. However, with precipitation occurring on previous days, it is not likely to significantly increase fire weather concerns. Near the stalled boundary, mid-level moisture will promote scattered thunderstorms primarily in the Four Corners region. Again, these areas will have been impacted by recent precipitation and lightning ignition potential appears low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will continue across the CONUS on Wednesday. A shortwave trough will move through parts of the Southwest. At the surface, a stalled boundary will be situated within the southern Great Basin. Another day of limited fire weather concerns is expected. Winds will be weak across much of the West. The shortwave trough will likely enhance surface winds in southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico. However, with precipitation occurring on previous days, it is not likely to significantly increase fire weather concerns. Near the stalled boundary, mid-level moisture will promote scattered thunderstorms primarily in the Four Corners region. Again, these areas will have been impacted by recent precipitation and lightning ignition potential appears low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will continue across the CONUS on Wednesday. A shortwave trough will move through parts of the Southwest. At the surface, a stalled boundary will be situated within the southern Great Basin. Another day of limited fire weather concerns is expected. Winds will be weak across much of the West. The shortwave trough will likely enhance surface winds in southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico. However, with precipitation occurring on previous days, it is not likely to significantly increase fire weather concerns. Near the stalled boundary, mid-level moisture will promote scattered thunderstorms primarily in the Four Corners region. Again, these areas will have been impacted by recent precipitation and lightning ignition potential appears low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will continue across the CONUS on Wednesday. A shortwave trough will move through parts of the Southwest. At the surface, a stalled boundary will be situated within the southern Great Basin. Another day of limited fire weather concerns is expected. Winds will be weak across much of the West. The shortwave trough will likely enhance surface winds in southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico. However, with precipitation occurring on previous days, it is not likely to significantly increase fire weather concerns. Near the stalled boundary, mid-level moisture will promote scattered thunderstorms primarily in the Four Corners region. Again, these areas will have been impacted by recent precipitation and lightning ignition potential appears low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will continue across the CONUS on Wednesday. A shortwave trough will move through parts of the Southwest. At the surface, a stalled boundary will be situated within the southern Great Basin. Another day of limited fire weather concerns is expected. Winds will be weak across much of the West. The shortwave trough will likely enhance surface winds in southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico. However, with precipitation occurring on previous days, it is not likely to significantly increase fire weather concerns. Near the stalled boundary, mid-level moisture will promote scattered thunderstorms primarily in the Four Corners region. Again, these areas will have been impacted by recent precipitation and lightning ignition potential appears low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 06/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow will continue across the CONUS on Wednesday. A shortwave trough will move through parts of the Southwest. At the surface, a stalled boundary will be situated within the southern Great Basin. Another day of limited fire weather concerns is expected. Winds will be weak across much of the West. The shortwave trough will likely enhance surface winds in southeastern Arizona and southwest New Mexico. However, with precipitation occurring on previous days, it is not likely to significantly increase fire weather concerns. Near the stalled boundary, mid-level moisture will promote scattered thunderstorms primarily in the Four Corners region. Again, these areas will have been impacted by recent precipitation and lightning ignition potential appears low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more