Severe Storms

MD 1096 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHWEST MO
Mesoscale Discussion 1096 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Areas affected...Southwest MO Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 032146Z - 032315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms are possible late this afternoon, with additional storms expected this evening. DISCUSSION...A few strong storms have developed this afternoon across southwest MO, within a unstable (MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg) and weakly capped environment. Deep-layer shear is relatively marginal (generally 30 kt or less based on objective mesoanalyses and regional VWPs), but sufficient for organized multicells and perhaps a marginal supercell or two. Hail and locally damaging winds will be possible in the short term with the strongest cells. Favorable low-level moisture and 0-1 km SRH of around 100 m2/s2 could also support a localized tornado threat if any supercell can be sustained. Additional storms will move into the region from the west this evening, with some severe potential. Watch issuance is possible into the evening, depending on observational trends regarding ongoing convection and also the later storms that will approach from the west. ..Dean/Hart.. 06/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF... LAT...LON 37249193 36619335 36689450 37779452 38079389 38249301 38349188 38079143 37249193 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 1095 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN TO CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1095 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Areas affected...northern to central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 032101Z - 032300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage through the late afternoon and evening hours across northern Texas with a more isolated severe threat with southward extent. Watch issuance is possible in the coming hours to address these concerns. DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery and lightning data show deepening cumulus with a few lightning flashes developing along a dryline from northwest TX southward towards the I-10 corridor. Across northwest to northern TX, thunderstorm coverage should gradually increase as an approaching cold front begins to impinge on the dryline/warm sector. Moderate buoyancy across the warm sector coupled with 35-45 knots of deep-layer wind shear will promote initially discrete cells with a large hail/sporadic severe wind risk. With time, discrete cells should merge within the approaching line and favor an increasing severe wind risk across northern TX this evening. Further south, weaker forcing for ascent should favor more isolated convection, and recent CAM guidance continues to show uncertainty regarding storm coverage. Nonetheless, the convective environment will favor robust thunderstorms with an attendant hail/wind risk, and building cumulus along the dryline hints that initiation remains possible. Convective trends will continue to be monitored and watch issuance may be needed for parts of the region (though watch issuance is more probable for portions of northwest/northern TX). ..Moore/Hart.. 06/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 30340059 30270104 30250149 30270169 30380187 30600190 30840177 31050150 32940008 33529954 33629916 33599785 33499731 33269707 32719710 32259730 31899774 31449835 30989911 30579987 30340059 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0363 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0363 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 363 TORNADO OK 032240Z - 040300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 363 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 540 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Oklahoma * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 540 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A cluster of supercell thunderstorms across central Oklahoma will track northeastward across the watch for the next few hours. Localized wind fields have become favorable for a risk of a few tornadoes, along with damaging winds and large hail. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles southwest of Ardmore OK to 25 miles east of Tulsa OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 359...WW 360...WW 361...WW 362... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Hart Read more

WW 0362 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 362 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..06/03/25 ATTN...WFO...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 362 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC059-093-097-121-133-143-151-207-221-237-253-337-353-363-367- 417-429-441-447-497-503-032340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALLAHAN COMANCHE COOKE DENTON EASTLAND ERATH FISHER HASKELL HOOD JACK JONES MONTAGUE NOLAN PALO PINTO PARKER SHACKELFORD STEPHENS TAYLOR THROCKMORTON WISE YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0360 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 360 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E LBB TO 40 W SPS TO 20 NNW SPS TO 15 SW OKC TO 35 ESE END TO 5 SE PNC TO 50 W CNU TO 20 ESE EMP. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1098 ..WENDT..06/03/25 ATTN...WFO...ICT...SGF...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 360 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-011-019-021-037-049-099-125-133-205-207-032340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BOURBON CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE CRAWFORD ELK LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO WILSON WOODSON OKC019-027-031-033-035-037-049-051-063-067-081-083-087-097-099- 103-105-107-109-111-113-115-117-119-123-125-131-133-137-143-145- 147-032340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CLEVELAND COMANCHE COTTON CRAIG CREEK GARVIN GRADY HUGHES JEFFERSON LINCOLN LOGAN Read more

MD 1093 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IL AND NORTHWEST IL
Mesoscale Discussion 1093 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Areas affected...portions of eastern IL and northwest IL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 032039Z - 032245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Severe potential will increase over the next couple of hours. A new watch downstream from Tornado Watch 359 may be needed late this afternoon across parts of eastern IA into northwest IL. DISCUSSION...Airmass recovery has slowly occurred across eastern IA into northwest IL in the wake of morning convection. Temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to low 80s, and dewpoints from 66-72 F are contributing to increasing MLCAPE. With time, vertical shear is expected to remain favorable for organized convection as the QLCS across northern MO track east/northeast with time and additional convection develops along a cold front oriented across eastern IA. Damaging gusts will be the main hazard with this activity. However, the VWP at KDVN shows some enlargement of the low-level hodograph, due in part to a 30-40 kt 850 mb southwesterly low-level jet over the region, which is also supporting 0-1 km SRH around 100-150 m2/s2. As such, a tornado or two also could occur in addition to strong gusts. A downstream watch may be needed in the next couple hours. ..Leitman/Smith.. 06/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...DMX...EAX... LAT...LON 40649289 42129151 42459056 42448959 41758928 40558970 40259051 40209125 40489235 40649289 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1092 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 360... FOR CENTRAL OK
Mesoscale Discussion 1092 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Areas affected...central OK Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 360... Valid 032013Z - 032215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 360 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado potential may be increasing across central OK. DISCUSSION...Strong cells have developed just west of the I-35 corridor in central OK. These cells show rotation aloft and the VWP from KTLX shows an increasing low-level hodograph with 0-1 SRH near 150 m2/s2. Backed surface winds are also noted in surface observations, along with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F. This is contributing to strong instability and further storm organization and intensification is possible over the next couple of hours as these storms track northeast across central OK and the greater OKC Metro area, and a brief tornado or two could occur with these developing supercells. Additionally, as storms across southwest OK move into this environment, some tornado and damaging risk will be possible. ..Leitman.. 06/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 35549828 36009773 36079680 35559659 34909672 34699721 34689800 34789837 35089845 35549828 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 1094 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 359... FOR NORTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1094 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Areas affected...North-central Missouri Concerning...Tornado Watch 359... Valid 032044Z - 032145Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 359 continues. SUMMARY...The greatest short-term threat for severe wind gusts, large hail, and a tornado or two will exist in north-central Missouri in WW 359. DISCUSSION...A mature QLCS recently impacted the Kansas City metro and vicinity and is continuing eastward through WW 359. A consolidated bow echo is present at the northern extent of the line (currently approaching Linn County), with a more outflow-dominated signature present with southward extent. Both areas should continue to pose a threat for severe wind gusts over the next couple of hours. Periods of stronger low-level rotation were observed recently, and some re-intensification is possible given locally stronger low-level shear. Some semi-discrete cells have also formed in a convergent zone ahead of the QLCS, which will pose a locally greater threat for large hail in the short term. ..Flournoy/Smith.. 06/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX... LAT...LON 39539225 38969256 38609306 38499344 38649372 38939384 39649386 40149359 40339312 40349246 40099214 39539225 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0361 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0361 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0361 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0361 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0361 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0361 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 361 SEVERE TSTM IA IL MO WI 032140Z - 040400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 361 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 440 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Iowa Northwest Illinois Northeast Missouri Southern Wisconsin * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 440 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms over north-central Missouri will track northeastward across the watch area through the evening. Damaging winds are the main concern, but large hail and a tornado or two are also possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles south of Kirksville MO to 10 miles east northeast of Rockford IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 359...WW 360... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0360 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 360 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE CDS TO 5 NNE CSM TO 15 SW END TO 35 NNW PNC TO 15 SW EMP. ..WENDT..06/03/25 ATTN...WFO...ICT...SGF...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 360 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-011-015-019-021-035-037-049-073-099-125-133-205-207- 032240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BOURBON BUTLER CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE COWLEY CRAWFORD ELK GREENWOOD LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO WILSON WOODSON OKC011-015-017-019-027-031-033-035-037-039-047-049-051-053-063- 065-067-071-073-075-081-083-087-097-099-103-105-107-109-111-113- 115-117-119-123-125-131-133-137-141-143-145-147-149-032240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN CARTER CLEVELAND COMANCHE COTTON CRAIG CREEK CUSTER GARFIELD GARVIN GRADY GRANT HUGHES Read more

WW 0359 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 359 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW OJC TO 5 SSE OJC TO 15 NNE MKC. ..SMITH..06/03/25 ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 359 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC107-121-032140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LINN MIAMI MOC001-013-025-033-037-041-053-083-089-095-101-103-107-111-115- 117-121-127-137-159-175-177-195-205-211-032140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR BATES CALDWELL CARROLL CASS CHARITON COOPER HENRY HOWARD JACKSON JOHNSON KNOX LAFAYETTE LEWIS LINN LIVINGSTON MACON MARION MONROE PETTIS RANDOLPH RAY SALINE SHELBY SULLIVAN Read more

WW 0359 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 359 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW OJC TO 5 SSE OJC TO 15 NNE MKC. ..SMITH..06/03/25 ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 359 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC107-121-032140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LINN MIAMI MOC001-013-025-033-037-041-053-083-089-095-101-103-107-111-115- 117-121-127-137-159-175-177-195-205-211-032140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR BATES CALDWELL CARROLL CASS CHARITON COOPER HENRY HOWARD JACKSON JOHNSON KNOX LAFAYETTE LEWIS LINN LIVINGSTON MACON MARION MONROE PETTIS RANDOLPH RAY SALINE SHELBY SULLIVAN Read more

WW 0359 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 359 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW OJC TO 5 SSE OJC TO 15 NNE MKC. ..SMITH..06/03/25 ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 359 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC107-121-032140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LINN MIAMI MOC001-013-025-033-037-041-053-083-089-095-101-103-107-111-115- 117-121-127-137-159-175-177-195-205-211-032140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR BATES CALDWELL CARROLL CASS CHARITON COOPER HENRY HOWARD JACKSON JOHNSON KNOX LAFAYETTE LEWIS LINN LIVINGSTON MACON MARION MONROE PETTIS RANDOLPH RAY SALINE SHELBY SULLIVAN Read more

WW 0359 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 359 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW OJC TO 5 SSE OJC TO 15 NNE MKC. ..SMITH..06/03/25 ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 359 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC107-121-032140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LINN MIAMI MOC001-013-025-033-037-041-053-083-089-095-101-103-107-111-115- 117-121-127-137-159-175-177-195-205-211-032140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR BATES CALDWELL CARROLL CASS CHARITON COOPER HENRY HOWARD JACKSON JOHNSON KNOX LAFAYETTE LEWIS LINN LIVINGSTON MACON MARION MONROE PETTIS RANDOLPH RAY SALINE SHELBY SULLIVAN Read more

WW 359 TORNADO KS MO 031835Z - 040100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 359 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 135 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Far Eastern Kansas West-Central into Northeastern Missouri * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...An organizing band of storms will likely move northeast across the Watch along and north of modified outflow. Moist low levels and moderately strong low-level shear across the Watch will support a risk for a couple of tornadoes. A threat for damaging gusts will probably accompany the stronger storms. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles east northeast of Kirksville MO to 45 miles south southeast of Olathe KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Smith Read more

MD 1091 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WI INTO UPPER MI
Mesoscale Discussion 1091 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Areas affected...portions of WI into Upper MI Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 031832Z - 032030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Locally strong gusts to 50 mph, and small hail will be possible through the afternoon. Overall severe potential is expected to remain limited and a watch is not currently expected. DISCUSSION...A band of storms is currently moving across northern IL into southeast WI within a warm advection regime. A 30-40 kt 850 mb low-level jet is aiding in some storm organization. Isolated strong gusts will be possible with ongoing and developing convection. Temperatures have warmed into the low 80s across much of eastern WI with low 60s dewpoints, supporting modest instability. Given strong deep-layer flow and areas of steepened low-level lapse rates, locally strong gusts are possible (and a 44 kt gust was noted about 30 minutes ago at KRFD). Temperatures aloft are marginal for hail production, with around -8 to -10 C at 500 mb is noted in forecast soundings. Nevertheless, sufficient instability and elongated hodographs suggest some small hail could accompany stronger cores. Overall severe potential is expected to remain limited, and a watch is not expected at this time. ..Leitman/Smith.. 06/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...LOT...MKX...ARX... LAT...LON 44169056 45328964 46038830 46538702 46478620 46128609 44918683 43338739 42268783 42198848 42298898 42678938 43339006 43739049 44169056 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more