Severe Storms

WW 0359 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 359 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW SZL TO 25 W SZL TO 35 WNW COU TO 30 N COU. ..DEAN..06/04/25 ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 359 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC083-159-040140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HENRY PETTIS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0359 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 359 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW SZL TO 25 W SZL TO 35 WNW COU TO 30 N COU. ..DEAN..06/04/25 ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 359 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC083-159-040140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HENRY PETTIS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0359 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 359 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW SZL TO 25 W SZL TO 35 WNW COU TO 30 N COU. ..DEAN..06/04/25 ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 359 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC083-159-040140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HENRY PETTIS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0359 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 359 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW SZL TO 25 W SZL TO 35 WNW COU TO 30 N COU. ..DEAN..06/04/25 ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 359 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC083-159-040140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HENRY PETTIS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0359 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 359 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW SZL TO 25 W SZL TO 35 WNW COU TO 30 N COU. ..DEAN..06/04/25 ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 359 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC083-159-040140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HENRY PETTIS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0359 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 359 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW SZL TO 25 W SZL TO 35 WNW COU TO 30 N COU. ..DEAN..06/04/25 ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 359 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC083-159-040140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HENRY PETTIS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 359 TORNADO KS MO 031835Z - 040100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 359 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 135 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Far Eastern Kansas West-Central into Northeastern Missouri * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...An organizing band of storms will likely move northeast across the Watch along and north of modified outflow. Moist low levels and moderately strong low-level shear across the Watch will support a risk for a couple of tornadoes. A threat for damaging gusts will probably accompany the stronger storms. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles east northeast of Kirksville MO to 45 miles south southeast of Olathe KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Smith Read more

MD 1098 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 360... FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1098 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0508 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Areas affected...Central and south-central Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 360... Valid 032208Z - 040015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 360 continues. SUMMARY...A local corridor of tornado risk continues to be evident in central and south-central Oklahoma. DISCUSSION...KTLX VAD continues to show low-level hodograph enlargement (200+ 0-1 km SRH). Over the past hour, line-embedded circulations have become evident west of the OKC metro. East of the line, discrete storms have continued to develop in central Oklahoma and south-central Oklahoma. Discrete storms near the OKC metro will likely interact with the line of storms in the next hour. Discrete storms in south-central Oklahoma have not been able to intensify so far as mid-level ascent is weaker with southern extent. Given the low-level shear profiles, a tornado risk will exist within even with a linear mode, but especially with any discrete storms that can persist into this evening. ..Wendt.. 06/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33949760 34399824 34609850 35019831 35249806 35509783 35839763 35879710 35359678 34319691 34029710 33949760 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0361 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0361 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1100 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 363... FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1100 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Areas affected...South-central into northeast Oklahoma Concerning...Tornado Watch 363... Valid 032344Z - 040115Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 363 continues. SUMMARY...Tornadoes, particularly with discrete storms in south-central Oklahoma, and damaging winds will remain possible into the evening. DISCUSSION...A few discrete storms continue in south-central Oklahoma. These storms will pose the greatest risk for a tornado over the next 1-2 hours. Eventually, storm interactions and the approaching line from the west will lead to a less discrete mode with time. However, KINX VAD and the low-level jet expected to remain in eastern Oklahoma suggest some continued risk for tornadoes with line embedded supercells or QLCS circulations. Within the line itself, there are embedded bowing segments noted on regional radar. These elements will pose a risk for damaging winds. Convective trends will continue to be monitored for possible watch extensions storms progress eastward this evening. The very moist environment and anticipated low-level shear will remain favorable. ..Wendt.. 06/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 35619685 36039669 36349671 36539633 36709584 36369526 35799507 35459501 34629533 34149564 33999649 34079723 34159775 34459792 35619685 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1099 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 361... FOR PARTS OF EASTERN IA...NORTHEAST MO...WESTERN IL
Mesoscale Discussion 1099 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0614 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Areas affected...Parts of eastern IA...northeast MO...western IL Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361... Valid 032314Z - 040045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind and possibly a tornado will spread northeastward this evening. DISCUSSION...A QLCS has evolved across southeast IA into northeast MO, and will continue spreading northeastward into a moist and moderately unstable environment. A small bowing segment has evolved within the northern portion of the QLCS across southeast IA, where the orientation of the line has become more orthogonal to the deep-layer shear vectors. This section of the line may pose a locally greater threat of damaging wind through early evening as it moves into northwest IL. Low-level shear (as depicted on the KDVN VWP) is also sufficient to support some potential for a line-embedded tornado. Farther south, the environment remains favorable along the southern portion of the QLCS, and a threat for damaging wind and possibly a brief tornado will eventually spread into west-central IL. Isolated hail will also be possible with the stronger embedded cells. ..Dean.. 06/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... LAT...LON 41109205 42209067 42348976 42328947 42108928 41528923 40328994 39439066 39039179 39639181 40069174 40649166 41109205 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1098 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 360... FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1098 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0508 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Areas affected...Central and south-central Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 360... Valid 032208Z - 040015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 360 continues. SUMMARY...A local corridor of tornado risk continues to be evident in central and south-central Oklahoma. DISCUSSION...KTLX VAD continues to show low-level hodograph enlargement (200+ 0-1 km SRH). Over the past hour, line-embedded circulations have become evident west of the OKC metro. East of the line, discrete storms have continued to develop in central Oklahoma and south-central Oklahoma. Discrete storms near the OKC metro will likely interact with the line of storms in the next hour. Discrete storms in south-central Oklahoma have not been able to intensify so far as mid-level ascent is weaker with southern extent. Given the low-level shear profiles, a tornado risk will exist within even with a linear mode, but especially with any discrete storms that can persist into this evening. ..Wendt.. 06/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33949760 34399824 34609850 35019831 35249806 35509783 35839763 35879710 35359678 34319691 34029710 33949760 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0363 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 363 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E SPS TO 40 NW ADM TO 30 SSW CQB TO 20 ENE CQB TO 35 W TUL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1100 ..WENDT..06/03/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 363 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC019-029-037-049-063-067-069-085-091-095-099-101-107-111-121- 123-125-131-133-143-145-040140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER COAL CREEK GARVIN HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LOVE MCINTOSH MARSHALL MURRAY MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE PITTSBURG PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE ROGERS SEMINOLE TULSA WAGONER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0362 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 362 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..06/03/25 ATTN...WFO...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 362 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC059-093-097-121-133-143-151-207-221-237-253-337-353-363-367- 417-429-441-447-497-503-040040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALLAHAN COMANCHE COOKE DENTON EASTLAND ERATH FISHER HASKELL HOOD JACK JONES MONTAGUE NOLAN PALO PINTO PARKER SHACKELFORD STEPHENS TAYLOR THROCKMORTON WISE YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 362 SEVERE TSTM TX 032200Z - 040400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 362 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 500 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Texas * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 500 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage through the evening, with the strongest cells posing a risk of locally damaging winds and large hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west northwest of Abilene TX to 30 miles northeast of Fort Worth TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 359...WW 360...WW 361... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Hart Read more

WW 0360 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 360 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW SPS TO 10 E SPS TO 35 ESE CHK TO 5 SW CQB TO 35 SE PNC TO 20 NW BVO TO 50 S OJC. ..WENDT..06/03/25 ATTN...WFO...ICT...SGF...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 360 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC011-021-037-099-125-133-040040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOURBON CHEROKEE CRAWFORD LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO OKC035-097-105-113-115-117-147-040040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAIG MAYES NOWATA OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE WASHINGTON TXC009-077-040040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 360 SEVERE TSTM KS OK TX 031915Z - 040200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 360 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 215 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of South-Central and Southeast Kansas Much of Oklahoma Western North Texas * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 215 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop and intensify this afternoon into the evening. The stronger thunderstorms, including a few supercells and line segments, will be potentially capable of large hail and severe gusts. A tornado is possible, especially towards this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 100 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles northwest of Chanute KS to 40 miles southwest of Wichita Falls TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 359... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Smith Read more

MD 1097 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST WI INTO SOUTHERN UPPER MI
Mesoscale Discussion 1097 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0507 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Areas affected...Northeast WI into southern Upper MI Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 032207Z - 032330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Locally damaging wind and perhaps a tornado are possible into early evening. DISCUSSION...A small storm cluster has recently become better organized northwest of Green Bay, with some indication of low-topped supercell development. Wind profiles are quite favorable for organized convection, with strong deep-layer shear and 0-1 km SRH of 100-200 m2/s2. Buoyancy is quite modest, with MLCAPE generally 500 J/kg or less, but some modest heating/moistening is occurring downstream, and a localized threat of damaging wind and possibly a tornado may continue until this convection reaches the lake. ..Dean/Hart.. 06/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB... LAT...LON 45038863 45348845 45838797 45918757 45698736 44878731 44568739 44338780 44248835 44308917 44488901 45038863 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1096 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHWEST MO
Mesoscale Discussion 1096 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Areas affected...Southwest MO Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 032146Z - 032315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms are possible late this afternoon, with additional storms expected this evening. DISCUSSION...A few strong storms have developed this afternoon across southwest MO, within a unstable (MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg) and weakly capped environment. Deep-layer shear is relatively marginal (generally 30 kt or less based on objective mesoanalyses and regional VWPs), but sufficient for organized multicells and perhaps a marginal supercell or two. Hail and locally damaging winds will be possible in the short term with the strongest cells. Favorable low-level moisture and 0-1 km SRH of around 100 m2/s2 could also support a localized tornado threat if any supercell can be sustained. Additional storms will move into the region from the west this evening, with some severe potential. Watch issuance is possible into the evening, depending on observational trends regarding ongoing convection and also the later storms that will approach from the west. ..Dean/Hart.. 06/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF... LAT...LON 37249193 36619335 36689450 37779452 38079389 38249301 38349188 38079143 37249193 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 1095 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN TO CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1095 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 PM CDT Tue Jun 03 2025 Areas affected...northern to central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 032101Z - 032300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage through the late afternoon and evening hours across northern Texas with a more isolated severe threat with southward extent. Watch issuance is possible in the coming hours to address these concerns. DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery and lightning data show deepening cumulus with a few lightning flashes developing along a dryline from northwest TX southward towards the I-10 corridor. Across northwest to northern TX, thunderstorm coverage should gradually increase as an approaching cold front begins to impinge on the dryline/warm sector. Moderate buoyancy across the warm sector coupled with 35-45 knots of deep-layer wind shear will promote initially discrete cells with a large hail/sporadic severe wind risk. With time, discrete cells should merge within the approaching line and favor an increasing severe wind risk across northern TX this evening. Further south, weaker forcing for ascent should favor more isolated convection, and recent CAM guidance continues to show uncertainty regarding storm coverage. Nonetheless, the convective environment will favor robust thunderstorms with an attendant hail/wind risk, and building cumulus along the dryline hints that initiation remains possible. Convective trends will continue to be monitored and watch issuance may be needed for parts of the region (though watch issuance is more probable for portions of northwest/northern TX). ..Moore/Hart.. 06/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 30340059 30270104 30250149 30270169 30380187 30600190 30840177 31050150 32940008 33529954 33629916 33599785 33499731 33269707 32719710 32259730 31899774 31449835 30989911 30579987 30340059 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more