Severe Storms

MD 1200 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES
Mesoscale Discussion 1200 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Areas affected...Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 081827Z - 082030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Supercells capable of large to very large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes likely this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows increasing cu along a stationary front located across northern OK into southwestern KS. MLCIN remains in place across much of the OK/TX panhandles, however, with temperatures warming into the mid 80s this is beginning to weaken particularly on the northern and western fringes. Even with morning elevated convection, a pronounced gradient of MLCAPE is setting up along the panhandles to the Red River on the OK/TX border. Initial mode will likely be supercelluar, with potential for large to very large (some 3-4"+) hail, damaging wind (some 70+ mph), and a couple of tornadoes. VAD profiles from LUB and AMA depict low level curvature of hodographs indicative of favorable low level shear to support a tornado threat. Though cells may have the propensity to cluster, strong deep layer shear and mesoscale storm interactions will likely allow for some embedded tornado threat to persist even with a shift in storm mode. A watch will be needed to cover this threat in the coming hours. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 34940274 35680294 36300304 37030286 37090228 37120169 37020135 36880095 36700062 36430010 35919989 35159985 34929985 33770026 33220048 33100146 33090183 33250235 33460256 33780258 34940274 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN Read more

MD 1201 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF LA AND SOUTHWEST MS
Mesoscale Discussion 1201 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Areas affected...portions of LA and southwest MS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 081835Z - 082030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm clusters may produce sporadic strong gusts this afternoon. DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms across northern LA will continue to propagate south/southeast this afternoon. Additional isolated storms have also developed further south from central LA into southern MS, likely along residual outflow and a band of differential heating. Large-scale ascent is somewhat nebulous across the region, but a band of moderate west/northwest flow aloft will persist. Strong heating an dewpoints well into the 70s F is supporting strong MLCAPE. Sporadic robust updrafts are possible over the next several hours and occasional strong gusts will be possible. While a severe thunderstorm watch is not expected immediately, trends will be monitored. ..Leitman/Guyer.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 32389332 32639188 32059089 31069121 30729248 30899328 31729353 32149370 32389332 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1199 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL IL...SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MO...SOUTHEAST KS...AND NORTHEAST OK
Mesoscale Discussion 1199 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Areas affected...portions of west-central IL...southwest to northeast MO...southeast KS...and northeast OK Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 081819Z - 082015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential will increase over the next couple of hours. Damaging gusts and large hail will be possible as storms develop eastward through early evening. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows increasing/deepening cumulus along the MO/IL portion of the cold front early this afternoon. Strong heating of a seasonally moist boundary layer is fostering weak to moderate instability (stronger instability with southwest extent into KS/OK). Isolated thunderstorms have recently develop across north-central MO just ahead of the cold front where inhibition has eroded. Additional thunderstorm development is expected along/ahead of the cold front over the next few hours. Stronger effective shear may lag just behind the cold front, regardless, sufficient speed shear and some stronger northwesterly mid/upper flow should allow for organized cells. Steep low-level lapse rates will support severe/locally damaging gust potential. Meanwhile, large hail also will be possible, particularly across southeast KS/northeast OK and portions of southwest MO where more robust updraft intensity is possible. Severe potential does become more uncertain with northeast extent given the more modest parameter space, but a severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed within the next couple of hours for portions of the MCD area. ..Leitman/Guyer.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 37639624 38179549 39319338 39789238 40249120 40179078 39929039 39319048 38849065 38569098 36759376 36399453 36289508 36289530 36339576 36539620 36769642 37059654 37359644 37639624 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is expected across the southern Plains today, including southern Oklahoma and much of northwest and North Texas. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and giant hail up to 3-5 inches in diameter are likely. Strong wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, are also possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...20Z Update... With convection moving off the South Carolina coast, severe probabilities have been reduced as robust redevelopment is not expected this afternoon. Severe probabilities were also reduced in parts of eastern Kansas, Missouri, and western Illinois based on the current position of the cold front. The remainder of the forecast remains on track. Widespread severe winds and large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes remain possible across parts of the southern Plains. ..Wendt.. 06/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025/ ...Northwest/North Texas and Oklahoma... A very active severe-weather day is expected including a regional outbreak of severe storms. The potential exists for very large hail and a few tornadoes this afternoon, with widespread damaging winds/derecho potentially developing into this evening and overnight, especially across much of North Texas and southern Oklahoma. Broad west-northwesterly flow is present today across the central/southern Plains, with a surface cold front sagging southward across Kansas. Ahead of the front, a very moist boundary-layer air mass is in place across much of Oklahoma/Texas, with dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Ample daytime heating and near dry-adiabatic low/mid-level lapse rates will yield a large reservoir of extremely high CAPE values across western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. See Mesoscale Discussion 1196 for additional short-term details. Rapid development of intense thunderstorms will ensue by mid/late afternoon along the cold front over western Oklahoma and along a complex dryline structure over the eastern Texas Panhandle. Strong deep layer shear will support intense supercells, despite rather weak low-level winds. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will be possible as these storms track southeastward across western/central Oklahoma and toward western North Texas, likely congealing into one or more prominent bowing MCSs. The risk of widespread destructive winds will increase through the evening as the potentially prominent linear convective system organizes/gradually accelerates east-southeastward across southern Oklahoma and North Texas. At least some lingering damaging wind/embedded tornado potential may reach as far east-southeast as the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss late tonight. ...Mid-Atlantic States... A shortwave trough currently over Ohio will track eastward today, with large-scale ascent overspreading the Mid-Atlantic states by afternoon. A moist surface air mass is present across much of VA/MD/NC and vicinity with dewpoints in the upper 60s. Persistent clouds and weak mid-level lapse rates will limit destabilization. However, it appears likely that storms will develop off the Blue Ridge by mid afternoon and spread eastward toward the coast. Forecast soundings show sufficient low and deep layer shear for supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Southeast... Clusters of storms will move across the region with mostly a wind damage risk, perhaps most certain and most focused across coastal portions of South Carolina into southern North Carolina through mid-afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is expected across the southern Plains today, including southern Oklahoma and much of northwest and North Texas. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and giant hail up to 3-5 inches in diameter are likely. Strong wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, are also possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...20Z Update... With convection moving off the South Carolina coast, severe probabilities have been reduced as robust redevelopment is not expected this afternoon. Severe probabilities were also reduced in parts of eastern Kansas, Missouri, and western Illinois based on the current position of the cold front. The remainder of the forecast remains on track. Widespread severe winds and large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes remain possible across parts of the southern Plains. ..Wendt.. 06/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025/ ...Northwest/North Texas and Oklahoma... A very active severe-weather day is expected including a regional outbreak of severe storms. The potential exists for very large hail and a few tornadoes this afternoon, with widespread damaging winds/derecho potentially developing into this evening and overnight, especially across much of North Texas and southern Oklahoma. Broad west-northwesterly flow is present today across the central/southern Plains, with a surface cold front sagging southward across Kansas. Ahead of the front, a very moist boundary-layer air mass is in place across much of Oklahoma/Texas, with dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Ample daytime heating and near dry-adiabatic low/mid-level lapse rates will yield a large reservoir of extremely high CAPE values across western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. See Mesoscale Discussion 1196 for additional short-term details. Rapid development of intense thunderstorms will ensue by mid/late afternoon along the cold front over western Oklahoma and along a complex dryline structure over the eastern Texas Panhandle. Strong deep layer shear will support intense supercells, despite rather weak low-level winds. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will be possible as these storms track southeastward across western/central Oklahoma and toward western North Texas, likely congealing into one or more prominent bowing MCSs. The risk of widespread destructive winds will increase through the evening as the potentially prominent linear convective system organizes/gradually accelerates east-southeastward across southern Oklahoma and North Texas. At least some lingering damaging wind/embedded tornado potential may reach as far east-southeast as the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss late tonight. ...Mid-Atlantic States... A shortwave trough currently over Ohio will track eastward today, with large-scale ascent overspreading the Mid-Atlantic states by afternoon. A moist surface air mass is present across much of VA/MD/NC and vicinity with dewpoints in the upper 60s. Persistent clouds and weak mid-level lapse rates will limit destabilization. However, it appears likely that storms will develop off the Blue Ridge by mid afternoon and spread eastward toward the coast. Forecast soundings show sufficient low and deep layer shear for supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Southeast... Clusters of storms will move across the region with mostly a wind damage risk, perhaps most certain and most focused across coastal portions of South Carolina into southern North Carolina through mid-afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is expected across the southern Plains today, including southern Oklahoma and much of northwest and North Texas. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and giant hail up to 3-5 inches in diameter are likely. Strong wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, are also possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...20Z Update... With convection moving off the South Carolina coast, severe probabilities have been reduced as robust redevelopment is not expected this afternoon. Severe probabilities were also reduced in parts of eastern Kansas, Missouri, and western Illinois based on the current position of the cold front. The remainder of the forecast remains on track. Widespread severe winds and large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes remain possible across parts of the southern Plains. ..Wendt.. 06/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025/ ...Northwest/North Texas and Oklahoma... A very active severe-weather day is expected including a regional outbreak of severe storms. The potential exists for very large hail and a few tornadoes this afternoon, with widespread damaging winds/derecho potentially developing into this evening and overnight, especially across much of North Texas and southern Oklahoma. Broad west-northwesterly flow is present today across the central/southern Plains, with a surface cold front sagging southward across Kansas. Ahead of the front, a very moist boundary-layer air mass is in place across much of Oklahoma/Texas, with dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Ample daytime heating and near dry-adiabatic low/mid-level lapse rates will yield a large reservoir of extremely high CAPE values across western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. See Mesoscale Discussion 1196 for additional short-term details. Rapid development of intense thunderstorms will ensue by mid/late afternoon along the cold front over western Oklahoma and along a complex dryline structure over the eastern Texas Panhandle. Strong deep layer shear will support intense supercells, despite rather weak low-level winds. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will be possible as these storms track southeastward across western/central Oklahoma and toward western North Texas, likely congealing into one or more prominent bowing MCSs. The risk of widespread destructive winds will increase through the evening as the potentially prominent linear convective system organizes/gradually accelerates east-southeastward across southern Oklahoma and North Texas. At least some lingering damaging wind/embedded tornado potential may reach as far east-southeast as the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss late tonight. ...Mid-Atlantic States... A shortwave trough currently over Ohio will track eastward today, with large-scale ascent overspreading the Mid-Atlantic states by afternoon. A moist surface air mass is present across much of VA/MD/NC and vicinity with dewpoints in the upper 60s. Persistent clouds and weak mid-level lapse rates will limit destabilization. However, it appears likely that storms will develop off the Blue Ridge by mid afternoon and spread eastward toward the coast. Forecast soundings show sufficient low and deep layer shear for supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Southeast... Clusters of storms will move across the region with mostly a wind damage risk, perhaps most certain and most focused across coastal portions of South Carolina into southern North Carolina through mid-afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is expected across the southern Plains today, including southern Oklahoma and much of northwest and North Texas. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and giant hail up to 3-5 inches in diameter are likely. Strong wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, are also possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...20Z Update... With convection moving off the South Carolina coast, severe probabilities have been reduced as robust redevelopment is not expected this afternoon. Severe probabilities were also reduced in parts of eastern Kansas, Missouri, and western Illinois based on the current position of the cold front. The remainder of the forecast remains on track. Widespread severe winds and large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes remain possible across parts of the southern Plains. ..Wendt.. 06/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025/ ...Northwest/North Texas and Oklahoma... A very active severe-weather day is expected including a regional outbreak of severe storms. The potential exists for very large hail and a few tornadoes this afternoon, with widespread damaging winds/derecho potentially developing into this evening and overnight, especially across much of North Texas and southern Oklahoma. Broad west-northwesterly flow is present today across the central/southern Plains, with a surface cold front sagging southward across Kansas. Ahead of the front, a very moist boundary-layer air mass is in place across much of Oklahoma/Texas, with dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Ample daytime heating and near dry-adiabatic low/mid-level lapse rates will yield a large reservoir of extremely high CAPE values across western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. See Mesoscale Discussion 1196 for additional short-term details. Rapid development of intense thunderstorms will ensue by mid/late afternoon along the cold front over western Oklahoma and along a complex dryline structure over the eastern Texas Panhandle. Strong deep layer shear will support intense supercells, despite rather weak low-level winds. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will be possible as these storms track southeastward across western/central Oklahoma and toward western North Texas, likely congealing into one or more prominent bowing MCSs. The risk of widespread destructive winds will increase through the evening as the potentially prominent linear convective system organizes/gradually accelerates east-southeastward across southern Oklahoma and North Texas. At least some lingering damaging wind/embedded tornado potential may reach as far east-southeast as the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss late tonight. ...Mid-Atlantic States... A shortwave trough currently over Ohio will track eastward today, with large-scale ascent overspreading the Mid-Atlantic states by afternoon. A moist surface air mass is present across much of VA/MD/NC and vicinity with dewpoints in the upper 60s. Persistent clouds and weak mid-level lapse rates will limit destabilization. However, it appears likely that storms will develop off the Blue Ridge by mid afternoon and spread eastward toward the coast. Forecast soundings show sufficient low and deep layer shear for supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Southeast... Clusters of storms will move across the region with mostly a wind damage risk, perhaps most certain and most focused across coastal portions of South Carolina into southern North Carolina through mid-afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is expected across the southern Plains today, including southern Oklahoma and much of northwest and North Texas. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and giant hail up to 3-5 inches in diameter are likely. Strong wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, are also possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...20Z Update... With convection moving off the South Carolina coast, severe probabilities have been reduced as robust redevelopment is not expected this afternoon. Severe probabilities were also reduced in parts of eastern Kansas, Missouri, and western Illinois based on the current position of the cold front. The remainder of the forecast remains on track. Widespread severe winds and large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes remain possible across parts of the southern Plains. ..Wendt.. 06/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025/ ...Northwest/North Texas and Oklahoma... A very active severe-weather day is expected including a regional outbreak of severe storms. The potential exists for very large hail and a few tornadoes this afternoon, with widespread damaging winds/derecho potentially developing into this evening and overnight, especially across much of North Texas and southern Oklahoma. Broad west-northwesterly flow is present today across the central/southern Plains, with a surface cold front sagging southward across Kansas. Ahead of the front, a very moist boundary-layer air mass is in place across much of Oklahoma/Texas, with dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Ample daytime heating and near dry-adiabatic low/mid-level lapse rates will yield a large reservoir of extremely high CAPE values across western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. See Mesoscale Discussion 1196 for additional short-term details. Rapid development of intense thunderstorms will ensue by mid/late afternoon along the cold front over western Oklahoma and along a complex dryline structure over the eastern Texas Panhandle. Strong deep layer shear will support intense supercells, despite rather weak low-level winds. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will be possible as these storms track southeastward across western/central Oklahoma and toward western North Texas, likely congealing into one or more prominent bowing MCSs. The risk of widespread destructive winds will increase through the evening as the potentially prominent linear convective system organizes/gradually accelerates east-southeastward across southern Oklahoma and North Texas. At least some lingering damaging wind/embedded tornado potential may reach as far east-southeast as the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss late tonight. ...Mid-Atlantic States... A shortwave trough currently over Ohio will track eastward today, with large-scale ascent overspreading the Mid-Atlantic states by afternoon. A moist surface air mass is present across much of VA/MD/NC and vicinity with dewpoints in the upper 60s. Persistent clouds and weak mid-level lapse rates will limit destabilization. However, it appears likely that storms will develop off the Blue Ridge by mid afternoon and spread eastward toward the coast. Forecast soundings show sufficient low and deep layer shear for supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Southeast... Clusters of storms will move across the region with mostly a wind damage risk, perhaps most certain and most focused across coastal portions of South Carolina into southern North Carolina through mid-afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is expected across the southern Plains today, including southern Oklahoma and much of northwest and North Texas. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and giant hail up to 3-5 inches in diameter are likely. Strong wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, are also possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...20Z Update... With convection moving off the South Carolina coast, severe probabilities have been reduced as robust redevelopment is not expected this afternoon. Severe probabilities were also reduced in parts of eastern Kansas, Missouri, and western Illinois based on the current position of the cold front. The remainder of the forecast remains on track. Widespread severe winds and large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes remain possible across parts of the southern Plains. ..Wendt.. 06/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025/ ...Northwest/North Texas and Oklahoma... A very active severe-weather day is expected including a regional outbreak of severe storms. The potential exists for very large hail and a few tornadoes this afternoon, with widespread damaging winds/derecho potentially developing into this evening and overnight, especially across much of North Texas and southern Oklahoma. Broad west-northwesterly flow is present today across the central/southern Plains, with a surface cold front sagging southward across Kansas. Ahead of the front, a very moist boundary-layer air mass is in place across much of Oklahoma/Texas, with dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Ample daytime heating and near dry-adiabatic low/mid-level lapse rates will yield a large reservoir of extremely high CAPE values across western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. See Mesoscale Discussion 1196 for additional short-term details. Rapid development of intense thunderstorms will ensue by mid/late afternoon along the cold front over western Oklahoma and along a complex dryline structure over the eastern Texas Panhandle. Strong deep layer shear will support intense supercells, despite rather weak low-level winds. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will be possible as these storms track southeastward across western/central Oklahoma and toward western North Texas, likely congealing into one or more prominent bowing MCSs. The risk of widespread destructive winds will increase through the evening as the potentially prominent linear convective system organizes/gradually accelerates east-southeastward across southern Oklahoma and North Texas. At least some lingering damaging wind/embedded tornado potential may reach as far east-southeast as the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss late tonight. ...Mid-Atlantic States... A shortwave trough currently over Ohio will track eastward today, with large-scale ascent overspreading the Mid-Atlantic states by afternoon. A moist surface air mass is present across much of VA/MD/NC and vicinity with dewpoints in the upper 60s. Persistent clouds and weak mid-level lapse rates will limit destabilization. However, it appears likely that storms will develop off the Blue Ridge by mid afternoon and spread eastward toward the coast. Forecast soundings show sufficient low and deep layer shear for supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Southeast... Clusters of storms will move across the region with mostly a wind damage risk, perhaps most certain and most focused across coastal portions of South Carolina into southern North Carolina through mid-afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is expected across the southern Plains today, including southern Oklahoma and much of northwest and North Texas. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and giant hail up to 3-5 inches in diameter are likely. Strong wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, are also possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...20Z Update... With convection moving off the South Carolina coast, severe probabilities have been reduced as robust redevelopment is not expected this afternoon. Severe probabilities were also reduced in parts of eastern Kansas, Missouri, and western Illinois based on the current position of the cold front. The remainder of the forecast remains on track. Widespread severe winds and large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes remain possible across parts of the southern Plains. ..Wendt.. 06/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025/ ...Northwest/North Texas and Oklahoma... A very active severe-weather day is expected including a regional outbreak of severe storms. The potential exists for very large hail and a few tornadoes this afternoon, with widespread damaging winds/derecho potentially developing into this evening and overnight, especially across much of North Texas and southern Oklahoma. Broad west-northwesterly flow is present today across the central/southern Plains, with a surface cold front sagging southward across Kansas. Ahead of the front, a very moist boundary-layer air mass is in place across much of Oklahoma/Texas, with dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Ample daytime heating and near dry-adiabatic low/mid-level lapse rates will yield a large reservoir of extremely high CAPE values across western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. See Mesoscale Discussion 1196 for additional short-term details. Rapid development of intense thunderstorms will ensue by mid/late afternoon along the cold front over western Oklahoma and along a complex dryline structure over the eastern Texas Panhandle. Strong deep layer shear will support intense supercells, despite rather weak low-level winds. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will be possible as these storms track southeastward across western/central Oklahoma and toward western North Texas, likely congealing into one or more prominent bowing MCSs. The risk of widespread destructive winds will increase through the evening as the potentially prominent linear convective system organizes/gradually accelerates east-southeastward across southern Oklahoma and North Texas. At least some lingering damaging wind/embedded tornado potential may reach as far east-southeast as the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss late tonight. ...Mid-Atlantic States... A shortwave trough currently over Ohio will track eastward today, with large-scale ascent overspreading the Mid-Atlantic states by afternoon. A moist surface air mass is present across much of VA/MD/NC and vicinity with dewpoints in the upper 60s. Persistent clouds and weak mid-level lapse rates will limit destabilization. However, it appears likely that storms will develop off the Blue Ridge by mid afternoon and spread eastward toward the coast. Forecast soundings show sufficient low and deep layer shear for supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Southeast... Clusters of storms will move across the region with mostly a wind damage risk, perhaps most certain and most focused across coastal portions of South Carolina into southern North Carolina through mid-afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is expected across the southern Plains today, including southern Oklahoma and much of northwest and North Texas. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and giant hail up to 3-5 inches in diameter are likely. Strong wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, are also possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...20Z Update... With convection moving off the South Carolina coast, severe probabilities have been reduced as robust redevelopment is not expected this afternoon. Severe probabilities were also reduced in parts of eastern Kansas, Missouri, and western Illinois based on the current position of the cold front. The remainder of the forecast remains on track. Widespread severe winds and large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes remain possible across parts of the southern Plains. ..Wendt.. 06/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025/ ...Northwest/North Texas and Oklahoma... A very active severe-weather day is expected including a regional outbreak of severe storms. The potential exists for very large hail and a few tornadoes this afternoon, with widespread damaging winds/derecho potentially developing into this evening and overnight, especially across much of North Texas and southern Oklahoma. Broad west-northwesterly flow is present today across the central/southern Plains, with a surface cold front sagging southward across Kansas. Ahead of the front, a very moist boundary-layer air mass is in place across much of Oklahoma/Texas, with dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Ample daytime heating and near dry-adiabatic low/mid-level lapse rates will yield a large reservoir of extremely high CAPE values across western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. See Mesoscale Discussion 1196 for additional short-term details. Rapid development of intense thunderstorms will ensue by mid/late afternoon along the cold front over western Oklahoma and along a complex dryline structure over the eastern Texas Panhandle. Strong deep layer shear will support intense supercells, despite rather weak low-level winds. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will be possible as these storms track southeastward across western/central Oklahoma and toward western North Texas, likely congealing into one or more prominent bowing MCSs. The risk of widespread destructive winds will increase through the evening as the potentially prominent linear convective system organizes/gradually accelerates east-southeastward across southern Oklahoma and North Texas. At least some lingering damaging wind/embedded tornado potential may reach as far east-southeast as the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss late tonight. ...Mid-Atlantic States... A shortwave trough currently over Ohio will track eastward today, with large-scale ascent overspreading the Mid-Atlantic states by afternoon. A moist surface air mass is present across much of VA/MD/NC and vicinity with dewpoints in the upper 60s. Persistent clouds and weak mid-level lapse rates will limit destabilization. However, it appears likely that storms will develop off the Blue Ridge by mid afternoon and spread eastward toward the coast. Forecast soundings show sufficient low and deep layer shear for supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Southeast... Clusters of storms will move across the region with mostly a wind damage risk, perhaps most certain and most focused across coastal portions of South Carolina into southern North Carolina through mid-afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is expected across the southern Plains today, including southern Oklahoma and much of northwest and North Texas. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and giant hail up to 3-5 inches in diameter are likely. Strong wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, are also possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...20Z Update... With convection moving off the South Carolina coast, severe probabilities have been reduced as robust redevelopment is not expected this afternoon. Severe probabilities were also reduced in parts of eastern Kansas, Missouri, and western Illinois based on the current position of the cold front. The remainder of the forecast remains on track. Widespread severe winds and large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes remain possible across parts of the southern Plains. ..Wendt.. 06/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025/ ...Northwest/North Texas and Oklahoma... A very active severe-weather day is expected including a regional outbreak of severe storms. The potential exists for very large hail and a few tornadoes this afternoon, with widespread damaging winds/derecho potentially developing into this evening and overnight, especially across much of North Texas and southern Oklahoma. Broad west-northwesterly flow is present today across the central/southern Plains, with a surface cold front sagging southward across Kansas. Ahead of the front, a very moist boundary-layer air mass is in place across much of Oklahoma/Texas, with dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Ample daytime heating and near dry-adiabatic low/mid-level lapse rates will yield a large reservoir of extremely high CAPE values across western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. See Mesoscale Discussion 1196 for additional short-term details. Rapid development of intense thunderstorms will ensue by mid/late afternoon along the cold front over western Oklahoma and along a complex dryline structure over the eastern Texas Panhandle. Strong deep layer shear will support intense supercells, despite rather weak low-level winds. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will be possible as these storms track southeastward across western/central Oklahoma and toward western North Texas, likely congealing into one or more prominent bowing MCSs. The risk of widespread destructive winds will increase through the evening as the potentially prominent linear convective system organizes/gradually accelerates east-southeastward across southern Oklahoma and North Texas. At least some lingering damaging wind/embedded tornado potential may reach as far east-southeast as the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss late tonight. ...Mid-Atlantic States... A shortwave trough currently over Ohio will track eastward today, with large-scale ascent overspreading the Mid-Atlantic states by afternoon. A moist surface air mass is present across much of VA/MD/NC and vicinity with dewpoints in the upper 60s. Persistent clouds and weak mid-level lapse rates will limit destabilization. However, it appears likely that storms will develop off the Blue Ridge by mid afternoon and spread eastward toward the coast. Forecast soundings show sufficient low and deep layer shear for supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Southeast... Clusters of storms will move across the region with mostly a wind damage risk, perhaps most certain and most focused across coastal portions of South Carolina into southern North Carolina through mid-afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is expected across the southern Plains today, including southern Oklahoma and much of northwest and North Texas. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and giant hail up to 3-5 inches in diameter are likely. Strong wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, are also possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...20Z Update... With convection moving off the South Carolina coast, severe probabilities have been reduced as robust redevelopment is not expected this afternoon. Severe probabilities were also reduced in parts of eastern Kansas, Missouri, and western Illinois based on the current position of the cold front. The remainder of the forecast remains on track. Widespread severe winds and large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes remain possible across parts of the southern Plains. ..Wendt.. 06/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025/ ...Northwest/North Texas and Oklahoma... A very active severe-weather day is expected including a regional outbreak of severe storms. The potential exists for very large hail and a few tornadoes this afternoon, with widespread damaging winds/derecho potentially developing into this evening and overnight, especially across much of North Texas and southern Oklahoma. Broad west-northwesterly flow is present today across the central/southern Plains, with a surface cold front sagging southward across Kansas. Ahead of the front, a very moist boundary-layer air mass is in place across much of Oklahoma/Texas, with dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Ample daytime heating and near dry-adiabatic low/mid-level lapse rates will yield a large reservoir of extremely high CAPE values across western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. See Mesoscale Discussion 1196 for additional short-term details. Rapid development of intense thunderstorms will ensue by mid/late afternoon along the cold front over western Oklahoma and along a complex dryline structure over the eastern Texas Panhandle. Strong deep layer shear will support intense supercells, despite rather weak low-level winds. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will be possible as these storms track southeastward across western/central Oklahoma and toward western North Texas, likely congealing into one or more prominent bowing MCSs. The risk of widespread destructive winds will increase through the evening as the potentially prominent linear convective system organizes/gradually accelerates east-southeastward across southern Oklahoma and North Texas. At least some lingering damaging wind/embedded tornado potential may reach as far east-southeast as the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss late tonight. ...Mid-Atlantic States... A shortwave trough currently over Ohio will track eastward today, with large-scale ascent overspreading the Mid-Atlantic states by afternoon. A moist surface air mass is present across much of VA/MD/NC and vicinity with dewpoints in the upper 60s. Persistent clouds and weak mid-level lapse rates will limit destabilization. However, it appears likely that storms will develop off the Blue Ridge by mid afternoon and spread eastward toward the coast. Forecast soundings show sufficient low and deep layer shear for supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Southeast... Clusters of storms will move across the region with mostly a wind damage risk, perhaps most certain and most focused across coastal portions of South Carolina into southern North Carolina through mid-afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is expected across the southern Plains today, including southern Oklahoma and much of northwest and North Texas. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and giant hail up to 3-5 inches in diameter are likely. Strong wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, are also possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...20Z Update... With convection moving off the South Carolina coast, severe probabilities have been reduced as robust redevelopment is not expected this afternoon. Severe probabilities were also reduced in parts of eastern Kansas, Missouri, and western Illinois based on the current position of the cold front. The remainder of the forecast remains on track. Widespread severe winds and large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes remain possible across parts of the southern Plains. ..Wendt.. 06/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025/ ...Northwest/North Texas and Oklahoma... A very active severe-weather day is expected including a regional outbreak of severe storms. The potential exists for very large hail and a few tornadoes this afternoon, with widespread damaging winds/derecho potentially developing into this evening and overnight, especially across much of North Texas and southern Oklahoma. Broad west-northwesterly flow is present today across the central/southern Plains, with a surface cold front sagging southward across Kansas. Ahead of the front, a very moist boundary-layer air mass is in place across much of Oklahoma/Texas, with dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Ample daytime heating and near dry-adiabatic low/mid-level lapse rates will yield a large reservoir of extremely high CAPE values across western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. See Mesoscale Discussion 1196 for additional short-term details. Rapid development of intense thunderstorms will ensue by mid/late afternoon along the cold front over western Oklahoma and along a complex dryline structure over the eastern Texas Panhandle. Strong deep layer shear will support intense supercells, despite rather weak low-level winds. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will be possible as these storms track southeastward across western/central Oklahoma and toward western North Texas, likely congealing into one or more prominent bowing MCSs. The risk of widespread destructive winds will increase through the evening as the potentially prominent linear convective system organizes/gradually accelerates east-southeastward across southern Oklahoma and North Texas. At least some lingering damaging wind/embedded tornado potential may reach as far east-southeast as the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss late tonight. ...Mid-Atlantic States... A shortwave trough currently over Ohio will track eastward today, with large-scale ascent overspreading the Mid-Atlantic states by afternoon. A moist surface air mass is present across much of VA/MD/NC and vicinity with dewpoints in the upper 60s. Persistent clouds and weak mid-level lapse rates will limit destabilization. However, it appears likely that storms will develop off the Blue Ridge by mid afternoon and spread eastward toward the coast. Forecast soundings show sufficient low and deep layer shear for supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Southeast... Clusters of storms will move across the region with mostly a wind damage risk, perhaps most certain and most focused across coastal portions of South Carolina into southern North Carolina through mid-afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is expected across the southern Plains today, including southern Oklahoma and much of northwest and North Texas. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and giant hail up to 3-5 inches in diameter are likely. Strong wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, are also possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...20Z Update... With convection moving off the South Carolina coast, severe probabilities have been reduced as robust redevelopment is not expected this afternoon. Severe probabilities were also reduced in parts of eastern Kansas, Missouri, and western Illinois based on the current position of the cold front. The remainder of the forecast remains on track. Widespread severe winds and large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes remain possible across parts of the southern Plains. ..Wendt.. 06/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025/ ...Northwest/North Texas and Oklahoma... A very active severe-weather day is expected including a regional outbreak of severe storms. The potential exists for very large hail and a few tornadoes this afternoon, with widespread damaging winds/derecho potentially developing into this evening and overnight, especially across much of North Texas and southern Oklahoma. Broad west-northwesterly flow is present today across the central/southern Plains, with a surface cold front sagging southward across Kansas. Ahead of the front, a very moist boundary-layer air mass is in place across much of Oklahoma/Texas, with dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Ample daytime heating and near dry-adiabatic low/mid-level lapse rates will yield a large reservoir of extremely high CAPE values across western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. See Mesoscale Discussion 1196 for additional short-term details. Rapid development of intense thunderstorms will ensue by mid/late afternoon along the cold front over western Oklahoma and along a complex dryline structure over the eastern Texas Panhandle. Strong deep layer shear will support intense supercells, despite rather weak low-level winds. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will be possible as these storms track southeastward across western/central Oklahoma and toward western North Texas, likely congealing into one or more prominent bowing MCSs. The risk of widespread destructive winds will increase through the evening as the potentially prominent linear convective system organizes/gradually accelerates east-southeastward across southern Oklahoma and North Texas. At least some lingering damaging wind/embedded tornado potential may reach as far east-southeast as the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss late tonight. ...Mid-Atlantic States... A shortwave trough currently over Ohio will track eastward today, with large-scale ascent overspreading the Mid-Atlantic states by afternoon. A moist surface air mass is present across much of VA/MD/NC and vicinity with dewpoints in the upper 60s. Persistent clouds and weak mid-level lapse rates will limit destabilization. However, it appears likely that storms will develop off the Blue Ridge by mid afternoon and spread eastward toward the coast. Forecast soundings show sufficient low and deep layer shear for supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Southeast... Clusters of storms will move across the region with mostly a wind damage risk, perhaps most certain and most focused across coastal portions of South Carolina into southern North Carolina through mid-afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is expected across the southern Plains today, including southern Oklahoma and much of northwest and North Texas. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and giant hail up to 3-5 inches in diameter are likely. Strong wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, are also possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...20Z Update... With convection moving off the South Carolina coast, severe probabilities have been reduced as robust redevelopment is not expected this afternoon. Severe probabilities were also reduced in parts of eastern Kansas, Missouri, and western Illinois based on the current position of the cold front. The remainder of the forecast remains on track. Widespread severe winds and large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes remain possible across parts of the southern Plains. ..Wendt.. 06/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025/ ...Northwest/North Texas and Oklahoma... A very active severe-weather day is expected including a regional outbreak of severe storms. The potential exists for very large hail and a few tornadoes this afternoon, with widespread damaging winds/derecho potentially developing into this evening and overnight, especially across much of North Texas and southern Oklahoma. Broad west-northwesterly flow is present today across the central/southern Plains, with a surface cold front sagging southward across Kansas. Ahead of the front, a very moist boundary-layer air mass is in place across much of Oklahoma/Texas, with dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Ample daytime heating and near dry-adiabatic low/mid-level lapse rates will yield a large reservoir of extremely high CAPE values across western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. See Mesoscale Discussion 1196 for additional short-term details. Rapid development of intense thunderstorms will ensue by mid/late afternoon along the cold front over western Oklahoma and along a complex dryline structure over the eastern Texas Panhandle. Strong deep layer shear will support intense supercells, despite rather weak low-level winds. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will be possible as these storms track southeastward across western/central Oklahoma and toward western North Texas, likely congealing into one or more prominent bowing MCSs. The risk of widespread destructive winds will increase through the evening as the potentially prominent linear convective system organizes/gradually accelerates east-southeastward across southern Oklahoma and North Texas. At least some lingering damaging wind/embedded tornado potential may reach as far east-southeast as the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss late tonight. ...Mid-Atlantic States... A shortwave trough currently over Ohio will track eastward today, with large-scale ascent overspreading the Mid-Atlantic states by afternoon. A moist surface air mass is present across much of VA/MD/NC and vicinity with dewpoints in the upper 60s. Persistent clouds and weak mid-level lapse rates will limit destabilization. However, it appears likely that storms will develop off the Blue Ridge by mid afternoon and spread eastward toward the coast. Forecast soundings show sufficient low and deep layer shear for supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Southeast... Clusters of storms will move across the region with mostly a wind damage risk, perhaps most certain and most focused across coastal portions of South Carolina into southern North Carolina through mid-afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is expected across the southern Plains today, including southern Oklahoma and much of northwest and North Texas. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and giant hail up to 3-5 inches in diameter are likely. Strong wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, are also possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...20Z Update... With convection moving off the South Carolina coast, severe probabilities have been reduced as robust redevelopment is not expected this afternoon. Severe probabilities were also reduced in parts of eastern Kansas, Missouri, and western Illinois based on the current position of the cold front. The remainder of the forecast remains on track. Widespread severe winds and large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes remain possible across parts of the southern Plains. ..Wendt.. 06/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025/ ...Northwest/North Texas and Oklahoma... A very active severe-weather day is expected including a regional outbreak of severe storms. The potential exists for very large hail and a few tornadoes this afternoon, with widespread damaging winds/derecho potentially developing into this evening and overnight, especially across much of North Texas and southern Oklahoma. Broad west-northwesterly flow is present today across the central/southern Plains, with a surface cold front sagging southward across Kansas. Ahead of the front, a very moist boundary-layer air mass is in place across much of Oklahoma/Texas, with dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Ample daytime heating and near dry-adiabatic low/mid-level lapse rates will yield a large reservoir of extremely high CAPE values across western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. See Mesoscale Discussion 1196 for additional short-term details. Rapid development of intense thunderstorms will ensue by mid/late afternoon along the cold front over western Oklahoma and along a complex dryline structure over the eastern Texas Panhandle. Strong deep layer shear will support intense supercells, despite rather weak low-level winds. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will be possible as these storms track southeastward across western/central Oklahoma and toward western North Texas, likely congealing into one or more prominent bowing MCSs. The risk of widespread destructive winds will increase through the evening as the potentially prominent linear convective system organizes/gradually accelerates east-southeastward across southern Oklahoma and North Texas. At least some lingering damaging wind/embedded tornado potential may reach as far east-southeast as the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss late tonight. ...Mid-Atlantic States... A shortwave trough currently over Ohio will track eastward today, with large-scale ascent overspreading the Mid-Atlantic states by afternoon. A moist surface air mass is present across much of VA/MD/NC and vicinity with dewpoints in the upper 60s. Persistent clouds and weak mid-level lapse rates will limit destabilization. However, it appears likely that storms will develop off the Blue Ridge by mid afternoon and spread eastward toward the coast. Forecast soundings show sufficient low and deep layer shear for supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Southeast... Clusters of storms will move across the region with mostly a wind damage risk, perhaps most certain and most focused across coastal portions of South Carolina into southern North Carolina through mid-afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is expected across the southern Plains today, including southern Oklahoma and much of northwest and North Texas. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and giant hail up to 3-5 inches in diameter are likely. Strong wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, are also possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...20Z Update... With convection moving off the South Carolina coast, severe probabilities have been reduced as robust redevelopment is not expected this afternoon. Severe probabilities were also reduced in parts of eastern Kansas, Missouri, and western Illinois based on the current position of the cold front. The remainder of the forecast remains on track. Widespread severe winds and large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes remain possible across parts of the southern Plains. ..Wendt.. 06/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025/ ...Northwest/North Texas and Oklahoma... A very active severe-weather day is expected including a regional outbreak of severe storms. The potential exists for very large hail and a few tornadoes this afternoon, with widespread damaging winds/derecho potentially developing into this evening and overnight, especially across much of North Texas and southern Oklahoma. Broad west-northwesterly flow is present today across the central/southern Plains, with a surface cold front sagging southward across Kansas. Ahead of the front, a very moist boundary-layer air mass is in place across much of Oklahoma/Texas, with dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Ample daytime heating and near dry-adiabatic low/mid-level lapse rates will yield a large reservoir of extremely high CAPE values across western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. See Mesoscale Discussion 1196 for additional short-term details. Rapid development of intense thunderstorms will ensue by mid/late afternoon along the cold front over western Oklahoma and along a complex dryline structure over the eastern Texas Panhandle. Strong deep layer shear will support intense supercells, despite rather weak low-level winds. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will be possible as these storms track southeastward across western/central Oklahoma and toward western North Texas, likely congealing into one or more prominent bowing MCSs. The risk of widespread destructive winds will increase through the evening as the potentially prominent linear convective system organizes/gradually accelerates east-southeastward across southern Oklahoma and North Texas. At least some lingering damaging wind/embedded tornado potential may reach as far east-southeast as the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss late tonight. ...Mid-Atlantic States... A shortwave trough currently over Ohio will track eastward today, with large-scale ascent overspreading the Mid-Atlantic states by afternoon. A moist surface air mass is present across much of VA/MD/NC and vicinity with dewpoints in the upper 60s. Persistent clouds and weak mid-level lapse rates will limit destabilization. However, it appears likely that storms will develop off the Blue Ridge by mid afternoon and spread eastward toward the coast. Forecast soundings show sufficient low and deep layer shear for supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Southeast... Clusters of storms will move across the region with mostly a wind damage risk, perhaps most certain and most focused across coastal portions of South Carolina into southern North Carolina through mid-afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is expected across the southern Plains today, including southern Oklahoma and much of northwest and North Texas. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and giant hail up to 3-5 inches in diameter are likely. Strong wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, are also possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...20Z Update... With convection moving off the South Carolina coast, severe probabilities have been reduced as robust redevelopment is not expected this afternoon. Severe probabilities were also reduced in parts of eastern Kansas, Missouri, and western Illinois based on the current position of the cold front. The remainder of the forecast remains on track. Widespread severe winds and large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes remain possible across parts of the southern Plains. ..Wendt.. 06/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025/ ...Northwest/North Texas and Oklahoma... A very active severe-weather day is expected including a regional outbreak of severe storms. The potential exists for very large hail and a few tornadoes this afternoon, with widespread damaging winds/derecho potentially developing into this evening and overnight, especially across much of North Texas and southern Oklahoma. Broad west-northwesterly flow is present today across the central/southern Plains, with a surface cold front sagging southward across Kansas. Ahead of the front, a very moist boundary-layer air mass is in place across much of Oklahoma/Texas, with dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Ample daytime heating and near dry-adiabatic low/mid-level lapse rates will yield a large reservoir of extremely high CAPE values across western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. See Mesoscale Discussion 1196 for additional short-term details. Rapid development of intense thunderstorms will ensue by mid/late afternoon along the cold front over western Oklahoma and along a complex dryline structure over the eastern Texas Panhandle. Strong deep layer shear will support intense supercells, despite rather weak low-level winds. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will be possible as these storms track southeastward across western/central Oklahoma and toward western North Texas, likely congealing into one or more prominent bowing MCSs. The risk of widespread destructive winds will increase through the evening as the potentially prominent linear convective system organizes/gradually accelerates east-southeastward across southern Oklahoma and North Texas. At least some lingering damaging wind/embedded tornado potential may reach as far east-southeast as the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss late tonight. ...Mid-Atlantic States... A shortwave trough currently over Ohio will track eastward today, with large-scale ascent overspreading the Mid-Atlantic states by afternoon. A moist surface air mass is present across much of VA/MD/NC and vicinity with dewpoints in the upper 60s. Persistent clouds and weak mid-level lapse rates will limit destabilization. However, it appears likely that storms will develop off the Blue Ridge by mid afternoon and spread eastward toward the coast. Forecast soundings show sufficient low and deep layer shear for supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Southeast... Clusters of storms will move across the region with mostly a wind damage risk, perhaps most certain and most focused across coastal portions of South Carolina into southern North Carolina through mid-afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... A severe weather outbreak is expected across the southern Plains today, including southern Oklahoma and much of northwest and North Texas. A few tornadoes, destructive wind gusts of 80-100 mph, and giant hail up to 3-5 inches in diameter are likely. Strong wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, are also possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. ...20Z Update... With convection moving off the South Carolina coast, severe probabilities have been reduced as robust redevelopment is not expected this afternoon. Severe probabilities were also reduced in parts of eastern Kansas, Missouri, and western Illinois based on the current position of the cold front. The remainder of the forecast remains on track. Widespread severe winds and large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes remain possible across parts of the southern Plains. ..Wendt.. 06/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025/ ...Northwest/North Texas and Oklahoma... A very active severe-weather day is expected including a regional outbreak of severe storms. The potential exists for very large hail and a few tornadoes this afternoon, with widespread damaging winds/derecho potentially developing into this evening and overnight, especially across much of North Texas and southern Oklahoma. Broad west-northwesterly flow is present today across the central/southern Plains, with a surface cold front sagging southward across Kansas. Ahead of the front, a very moist boundary-layer air mass is in place across much of Oklahoma/Texas, with dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Ample daytime heating and near dry-adiabatic low/mid-level lapse rates will yield a large reservoir of extremely high CAPE values across western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. See Mesoscale Discussion 1196 for additional short-term details. Rapid development of intense thunderstorms will ensue by mid/late afternoon along the cold front over western Oklahoma and along a complex dryline structure over the eastern Texas Panhandle. Strong deep layer shear will support intense supercells, despite rather weak low-level winds. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will be possible as these storms track southeastward across western/central Oklahoma and toward western North Texas, likely congealing into one or more prominent bowing MCSs. The risk of widespread destructive winds will increase through the evening as the potentially prominent linear convective system organizes/gradually accelerates east-southeastward across southern Oklahoma and North Texas. At least some lingering damaging wind/embedded tornado potential may reach as far east-southeast as the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss late tonight. ...Mid-Atlantic States... A shortwave trough currently over Ohio will track eastward today, with large-scale ascent overspreading the Mid-Atlantic states by afternoon. A moist surface air mass is present across much of VA/MD/NC and vicinity with dewpoints in the upper 60s. Persistent clouds and weak mid-level lapse rates will limit destabilization. However, it appears likely that storms will develop off the Blue Ridge by mid afternoon and spread eastward toward the coast. Forecast soundings show sufficient low and deep layer shear for supercell structures capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes. ...Southeast... Clusters of storms will move across the region with mostly a wind damage risk, perhaps most certain and most focused across coastal portions of South Carolina into southern North Carolina through mid-afternoon. Read more