Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Subtropical ridging over the western US will gradually shift eastward as it begin to break down. At the same time, southwesterly flow aloft returns to the western US early this week. Dry downslope flow will be possible over the Northwest along with the potential for a few thunderstorms with passing embedded perturbations. This could support an increase in the fire-weather risk next week. ...Northwest... Periodic dry and breezy conditions are likely over the Northwest, particularly the lee of the Cascades, D3/Tuesday into next weekend. While model guidance varies on the intensity, occasional downslope/gap winds nearing critical criteria are possible. Current ensemble and model consensus suggest the strongest gusts (15-25 mph) are most likely D5/Thursday and beyond as stronger troughing builds over the West. This could result in some elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions as area live fuels are expected to dry. However, confidence in exactly where or how robust this overlap will be precludes any 40% areas for now. Periodic dry and breezy conditions should continue into the weekend with at least some localized fire-weather risk. ...Great Basin... Similar to the Northwest, increasing flow aloft is likely over the Great Basin and Southwest beginning the middle of next week. As winds aloft increase, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely. However, there appears to be limited overlap of the best meteorological conditions with the driest fuels. Uncertainty currently remains too large to introduce probabilities at this time. As model consensus develops and area fuels dry, some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of Utah and Nevada. ...Dry Thunderstorms... As troughing deepens across the west next week, several shortwave perturbations will pass over the western US increasing potential for thunderstorms. Very isolated storms appear possible D3/Tuesday primarily across southern OR. Greater coverage is more likely D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday as more robust troughing and deeper moisture arrive. This could support some isolated dry thunderstorms potential, though details on convective coverage and fuel availability remain unclear. Additional storms are possible late in the week into the weekend. This could again support some lightning potential across WA and OR, but model variance is very high and confidence in any specific risk areas low. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Subtropical ridging over the western US will gradually shift eastward as it begin to break down. At the same time, southwesterly flow aloft returns to the western US early this week. Dry downslope flow will be possible over the Northwest along with the potential for a few thunderstorms with passing embedded perturbations. This could support an increase in the fire-weather risk next week. ...Northwest... Periodic dry and breezy conditions are likely over the Northwest, particularly the lee of the Cascades, D3/Tuesday into next weekend. While model guidance varies on the intensity, occasional downslope/gap winds nearing critical criteria are possible. Current ensemble and model consensus suggest the strongest gusts (15-25 mph) are most likely D5/Thursday and beyond as stronger troughing builds over the West. This could result in some elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions as area live fuels are expected to dry. However, confidence in exactly where or how robust this overlap will be precludes any 40% areas for now. Periodic dry and breezy conditions should continue into the weekend with at least some localized fire-weather risk. ...Great Basin... Similar to the Northwest, increasing flow aloft is likely over the Great Basin and Southwest beginning the middle of next week. As winds aloft increase, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely. However, there appears to be limited overlap of the best meteorological conditions with the driest fuels. Uncertainty currently remains too large to introduce probabilities at this time. As model consensus develops and area fuels dry, some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of Utah and Nevada. ...Dry Thunderstorms... As troughing deepens across the west next week, several shortwave perturbations will pass over the western US increasing potential for thunderstorms. Very isolated storms appear possible D3/Tuesday primarily across southern OR. Greater coverage is more likely D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday as more robust troughing and deeper moisture arrive. This could support some isolated dry thunderstorms potential, though details on convective coverage and fuel availability remain unclear. Additional storms are possible late in the week into the weekend. This could again support some lightning potential across WA and OR, but model variance is very high and confidence in any specific risk areas low. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Subtropical ridging over the western US will gradually shift eastward as it begin to break down. At the same time, southwesterly flow aloft returns to the western US early this week. Dry downslope flow will be possible over the Northwest along with the potential for a few thunderstorms with passing embedded perturbations. This could support an increase in the fire-weather risk next week. ...Northwest... Periodic dry and breezy conditions are likely over the Northwest, particularly the lee of the Cascades, D3/Tuesday into next weekend. While model guidance varies on the intensity, occasional downslope/gap winds nearing critical criteria are possible. Current ensemble and model consensus suggest the strongest gusts (15-25 mph) are most likely D5/Thursday and beyond as stronger troughing builds over the West. This could result in some elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions as area live fuels are expected to dry. However, confidence in exactly where or how robust this overlap will be precludes any 40% areas for now. Periodic dry and breezy conditions should continue into the weekend with at least some localized fire-weather risk. ...Great Basin... Similar to the Northwest, increasing flow aloft is likely over the Great Basin and Southwest beginning the middle of next week. As winds aloft increase, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely. However, there appears to be limited overlap of the best meteorological conditions with the driest fuels. Uncertainty currently remains too large to introduce probabilities at this time. As model consensus develops and area fuels dry, some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of Utah and Nevada. ...Dry Thunderstorms... As troughing deepens across the west next week, several shortwave perturbations will pass over the western US increasing potential for thunderstorms. Very isolated storms appear possible D3/Tuesday primarily across southern OR. Greater coverage is more likely D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday as more robust troughing and deeper moisture arrive. This could support some isolated dry thunderstorms potential, though details on convective coverage and fuel availability remain unclear. Additional storms are possible late in the week into the weekend. This could again support some lightning potential across WA and OR, but model variance is very high and confidence in any specific risk areas low. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Subtropical ridging over the western US will gradually shift eastward as it begin to break down. At the same time, southwesterly flow aloft returns to the western US early this week. Dry downslope flow will be possible over the Northwest along with the potential for a few thunderstorms with passing embedded perturbations. This could support an increase in the fire-weather risk next week. ...Northwest... Periodic dry and breezy conditions are likely over the Northwest, particularly the lee of the Cascades, D3/Tuesday into next weekend. While model guidance varies on the intensity, occasional downslope/gap winds nearing critical criteria are possible. Current ensemble and model consensus suggest the strongest gusts (15-25 mph) are most likely D5/Thursday and beyond as stronger troughing builds over the West. This could result in some elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions as area live fuels are expected to dry. However, confidence in exactly where or how robust this overlap will be precludes any 40% areas for now. Periodic dry and breezy conditions should continue into the weekend with at least some localized fire-weather risk. ...Great Basin... Similar to the Northwest, increasing flow aloft is likely over the Great Basin and Southwest beginning the middle of next week. As winds aloft increase, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely. However, there appears to be limited overlap of the best meteorological conditions with the driest fuels. Uncertainty currently remains too large to introduce probabilities at this time. As model consensus develops and area fuels dry, some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of Utah and Nevada. ...Dry Thunderstorms... As troughing deepens across the west next week, several shortwave perturbations will pass over the western US increasing potential for thunderstorms. Very isolated storms appear possible D3/Tuesday primarily across southern OR. Greater coverage is more likely D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday as more robust troughing and deeper moisture arrive. This could support some isolated dry thunderstorms potential, though details on convective coverage and fuel availability remain unclear. Additional storms are possible late in the week into the weekend. This could again support some lightning potential across WA and OR, but model variance is very high and confidence in any specific risk areas low. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Subtropical ridging over the western US will gradually shift eastward as it begin to break down. At the same time, southwesterly flow aloft returns to the western US early this week. Dry downslope flow will be possible over the Northwest along with the potential for a few thunderstorms with passing embedded perturbations. This could support an increase in the fire-weather risk next week. ...Northwest... Periodic dry and breezy conditions are likely over the Northwest, particularly the lee of the Cascades, D3/Tuesday into next weekend. While model guidance varies on the intensity, occasional downslope/gap winds nearing critical criteria are possible. Current ensemble and model consensus suggest the strongest gusts (15-25 mph) are most likely D5/Thursday and beyond as stronger troughing builds over the West. This could result in some elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions as area live fuels are expected to dry. However, confidence in exactly where or how robust this overlap will be precludes any 40% areas for now. Periodic dry and breezy conditions should continue into the weekend with at least some localized fire-weather risk. ...Great Basin... Similar to the Northwest, increasing flow aloft is likely over the Great Basin and Southwest beginning the middle of next week. As winds aloft increase, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely. However, there appears to be limited overlap of the best meteorological conditions with the driest fuels. Uncertainty currently remains too large to introduce probabilities at this time. As model consensus develops and area fuels dry, some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of Utah and Nevada. ...Dry Thunderstorms... As troughing deepens across the west next week, several shortwave perturbations will pass over the western US increasing potential for thunderstorms. Very isolated storms appear possible D3/Tuesday primarily across southern OR. Greater coverage is more likely D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday as more robust troughing and deeper moisture arrive. This could support some isolated dry thunderstorms potential, though details on convective coverage and fuel availability remain unclear. Additional storms are possible late in the week into the weekend. This could again support some lightning potential across WA and OR, but model variance is very high and confidence in any specific risk areas low. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Subtropical ridging over the western US will gradually shift eastward as it begin to break down. At the same time, southwesterly flow aloft returns to the western US early this week. Dry downslope flow will be possible over the Northwest along with the potential for a few thunderstorms with passing embedded perturbations. This could support an increase in the fire-weather risk next week. ...Northwest... Periodic dry and breezy conditions are likely over the Northwest, particularly the lee of the Cascades, D3/Tuesday into next weekend. While model guidance varies on the intensity, occasional downslope/gap winds nearing critical criteria are possible. Current ensemble and model consensus suggest the strongest gusts (15-25 mph) are most likely D5/Thursday and beyond as stronger troughing builds over the West. This could result in some elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions as area live fuels are expected to dry. However, confidence in exactly where or how robust this overlap will be precludes any 40% areas for now. Periodic dry and breezy conditions should continue into the weekend with at least some localized fire-weather risk. ...Great Basin... Similar to the Northwest, increasing flow aloft is likely over the Great Basin and Southwest beginning the middle of next week. As winds aloft increase, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely. However, there appears to be limited overlap of the best meteorological conditions with the driest fuels. Uncertainty currently remains too large to introduce probabilities at this time. As model consensus develops and area fuels dry, some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of Utah and Nevada. ...Dry Thunderstorms... As troughing deepens across the west next week, several shortwave perturbations will pass over the western US increasing potential for thunderstorms. Very isolated storms appear possible D3/Tuesday primarily across southern OR. Greater coverage is more likely D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday as more robust troughing and deeper moisture arrive. This could support some isolated dry thunderstorms potential, though details on convective coverage and fuel availability remain unclear. Additional storms are possible late in the week into the weekend. This could again support some lightning potential across WA and OR, but model variance is very high and confidence in any specific risk areas low. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Subtropical ridging over the western US will gradually shift eastward as it begin to break down. At the same time, southwesterly flow aloft returns to the western US early this week. Dry downslope flow will be possible over the Northwest along with the potential for a few thunderstorms with passing embedded perturbations. This could support an increase in the fire-weather risk next week. ...Northwest... Periodic dry and breezy conditions are likely over the Northwest, particularly the lee of the Cascades, D3/Tuesday into next weekend. While model guidance varies on the intensity, occasional downslope/gap winds nearing critical criteria are possible. Current ensemble and model consensus suggest the strongest gusts (15-25 mph) are most likely D5/Thursday and beyond as stronger troughing builds over the West. This could result in some elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions as area live fuels are expected to dry. However, confidence in exactly where or how robust this overlap will be precludes any 40% areas for now. Periodic dry and breezy conditions should continue into the weekend with at least some localized fire-weather risk. ...Great Basin... Similar to the Northwest, increasing flow aloft is likely over the Great Basin and Southwest beginning the middle of next week. As winds aloft increase, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely. However, there appears to be limited overlap of the best meteorological conditions with the driest fuels. Uncertainty currently remains too large to introduce probabilities at this time. As model consensus develops and area fuels dry, some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of Utah and Nevada. ...Dry Thunderstorms... As troughing deepens across the west next week, several shortwave perturbations will pass over the western US increasing potential for thunderstorms. Very isolated storms appear possible D3/Tuesday primarily across southern OR. Greater coverage is more likely D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday as more robust troughing and deeper moisture arrive. This could support some isolated dry thunderstorms potential, though details on convective coverage and fuel availability remain unclear. Additional storms are possible late in the week into the weekend. This could again support some lightning potential across WA and OR, but model variance is very high and confidence in any specific risk areas low. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Subtropical ridging over the western US will gradually shift eastward as it begin to break down. At the same time, southwesterly flow aloft returns to the western US early this week. Dry downslope flow will be possible over the Northwest along with the potential for a few thunderstorms with passing embedded perturbations. This could support an increase in the fire-weather risk next week. ...Northwest... Periodic dry and breezy conditions are likely over the Northwest, particularly the lee of the Cascades, D3/Tuesday into next weekend. While model guidance varies on the intensity, occasional downslope/gap winds nearing critical criteria are possible. Current ensemble and model consensus suggest the strongest gusts (15-25 mph) are most likely D5/Thursday and beyond as stronger troughing builds over the West. This could result in some elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions as area live fuels are expected to dry. However, confidence in exactly where or how robust this overlap will be precludes any 40% areas for now. Periodic dry and breezy conditions should continue into the weekend with at least some localized fire-weather risk. ...Great Basin... Similar to the Northwest, increasing flow aloft is likely over the Great Basin and Southwest beginning the middle of next week. As winds aloft increase, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely. However, there appears to be limited overlap of the best meteorological conditions with the driest fuels. Uncertainty currently remains too large to introduce probabilities at this time. As model consensus develops and area fuels dry, some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of Utah and Nevada. ...Dry Thunderstorms... As troughing deepens across the west next week, several shortwave perturbations will pass over the western US increasing potential for thunderstorms. Very isolated storms appear possible D3/Tuesday primarily across southern OR. Greater coverage is more likely D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday as more robust troughing and deeper moisture arrive. This could support some isolated dry thunderstorms potential, though details on convective coverage and fuel availability remain unclear. Additional storms are possible late in the week into the weekend. This could again support some lightning potential across WA and OR, but model variance is very high and confidence in any specific risk areas low. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Subtropical ridging over the western US will gradually shift eastward as it begin to break down. At the same time, southwesterly flow aloft returns to the western US early this week. Dry downslope flow will be possible over the Northwest along with the potential for a few thunderstorms with passing embedded perturbations. This could support an increase in the fire-weather risk next week. ...Northwest... Periodic dry and breezy conditions are likely over the Northwest, particularly the lee of the Cascades, D3/Tuesday into next weekend. While model guidance varies on the intensity, occasional downslope/gap winds nearing critical criteria are possible. Current ensemble and model consensus suggest the strongest gusts (15-25 mph) are most likely D5/Thursday and beyond as stronger troughing builds over the West. This could result in some elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions as area live fuels are expected to dry. However, confidence in exactly where or how robust this overlap will be precludes any 40% areas for now. Periodic dry and breezy conditions should continue into the weekend with at least some localized fire-weather risk. ...Great Basin... Similar to the Northwest, increasing flow aloft is likely over the Great Basin and Southwest beginning the middle of next week. As winds aloft increase, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely. However, there appears to be limited overlap of the best meteorological conditions with the driest fuels. Uncertainty currently remains too large to introduce probabilities at this time. As model consensus develops and area fuels dry, some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of Utah and Nevada. ...Dry Thunderstorms... As troughing deepens across the west next week, several shortwave perturbations will pass over the western US increasing potential for thunderstorms. Very isolated storms appear possible D3/Tuesday primarily across southern OR. Greater coverage is more likely D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday as more robust troughing and deeper moisture arrive. This could support some isolated dry thunderstorms potential, though details on convective coverage and fuel availability remain unclear. Additional storms are possible late in the week into the weekend. This could again support some lightning potential across WA and OR, but model variance is very high and confidence in any specific risk areas low. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Subtropical ridging over the western US will gradually shift eastward as it begin to break down. At the same time, southwesterly flow aloft returns to the western US early this week. Dry downslope flow will be possible over the Northwest along with the potential for a few thunderstorms with passing embedded perturbations. This could support an increase in the fire-weather risk next week. ...Northwest... Periodic dry and breezy conditions are likely over the Northwest, particularly the lee of the Cascades, D3/Tuesday into next weekend. While model guidance varies on the intensity, occasional downslope/gap winds nearing critical criteria are possible. Current ensemble and model consensus suggest the strongest gusts (15-25 mph) are most likely D5/Thursday and beyond as stronger troughing builds over the West. This could result in some elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions as area live fuels are expected to dry. However, confidence in exactly where or how robust this overlap will be precludes any 40% areas for now. Periodic dry and breezy conditions should continue into the weekend with at least some localized fire-weather risk. ...Great Basin... Similar to the Northwest, increasing flow aloft is likely over the Great Basin and Southwest beginning the middle of next week. As winds aloft increase, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely. However, there appears to be limited overlap of the best meteorological conditions with the driest fuels. Uncertainty currently remains too large to introduce probabilities at this time. As model consensus develops and area fuels dry, some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of Utah and Nevada. ...Dry Thunderstorms... As troughing deepens across the west next week, several shortwave perturbations will pass over the western US increasing potential for thunderstorms. Very isolated storms appear possible D3/Tuesday primarily across southern OR. Greater coverage is more likely D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday as more robust troughing and deeper moisture arrive. This could support some isolated dry thunderstorms potential, though details on convective coverage and fuel availability remain unclear. Additional storms are possible late in the week into the weekend. This could again support some lightning potential across WA and OR, but model variance is very high and confidence in any specific risk areas low. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Subtropical ridging over the western US will gradually shift eastward as it begin to break down. At the same time, southwesterly flow aloft returns to the western US early this week. Dry downslope flow will be possible over the Northwest along with the potential for a few thunderstorms with passing embedded perturbations. This could support an increase in the fire-weather risk next week. ...Northwest... Periodic dry and breezy conditions are likely over the Northwest, particularly the lee of the Cascades, D3/Tuesday into next weekend. While model guidance varies on the intensity, occasional downslope/gap winds nearing critical criteria are possible. Current ensemble and model consensus suggest the strongest gusts (15-25 mph) are most likely D5/Thursday and beyond as stronger troughing builds over the West. This could result in some elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions as area live fuels are expected to dry. However, confidence in exactly where or how robust this overlap will be precludes any 40% areas for now. Periodic dry and breezy conditions should continue into the weekend with at least some localized fire-weather risk. ...Great Basin... Similar to the Northwest, increasing flow aloft is likely over the Great Basin and Southwest beginning the middle of next week. As winds aloft increase, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely. However, there appears to be limited overlap of the best meteorological conditions with the driest fuels. Uncertainty currently remains too large to introduce probabilities at this time. As model consensus develops and area fuels dry, some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of Utah and Nevada. ...Dry Thunderstorms... As troughing deepens across the west next week, several shortwave perturbations will pass over the western US increasing potential for thunderstorms. Very isolated storms appear possible D3/Tuesday primarily across southern OR. Greater coverage is more likely D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday as more robust troughing and deeper moisture arrive. This could support some isolated dry thunderstorms potential, though details on convective coverage and fuel availability remain unclear. Additional storms are possible late in the week into the weekend. This could again support some lightning potential across WA and OR, but model variance is very high and confidence in any specific risk areas low. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Subtropical ridging over the western US will gradually shift eastward as it begin to break down. At the same time, southwesterly flow aloft returns to the western US early this week. Dry downslope flow will be possible over the Northwest along with the potential for a few thunderstorms with passing embedded perturbations. This could support an increase in the fire-weather risk next week. ...Northwest... Periodic dry and breezy conditions are likely over the Northwest, particularly the lee of the Cascades, D3/Tuesday into next weekend. While model guidance varies on the intensity, occasional downslope/gap winds nearing critical criteria are possible. Current ensemble and model consensus suggest the strongest gusts (15-25 mph) are most likely D5/Thursday and beyond as stronger troughing builds over the West. This could result in some elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions as area live fuels are expected to dry. However, confidence in exactly where or how robust this overlap will be precludes any 40% areas for now. Periodic dry and breezy conditions should continue into the weekend with at least some localized fire-weather risk. ...Great Basin... Similar to the Northwest, increasing flow aloft is likely over the Great Basin and Southwest beginning the middle of next week. As winds aloft increase, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely. However, there appears to be limited overlap of the best meteorological conditions with the driest fuels. Uncertainty currently remains too large to introduce probabilities at this time. As model consensus develops and area fuels dry, some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of Utah and Nevada. ...Dry Thunderstorms... As troughing deepens across the west next week, several shortwave perturbations will pass over the western US increasing potential for thunderstorms. Very isolated storms appear possible D3/Tuesday primarily across southern OR. Greater coverage is more likely D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday as more robust troughing and deeper moisture arrive. This could support some isolated dry thunderstorms potential, though details on convective coverage and fuel availability remain unclear. Additional storms are possible late in the week into the weekend. This could again support some lightning potential across WA and OR, but model variance is very high and confidence in any specific risk areas low. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Subtropical ridging over the western US will gradually shift eastward as it begin to break down. At the same time, southwesterly flow aloft returns to the western US early this week. Dry downslope flow will be possible over the Northwest along with the potential for a few thunderstorms with passing embedded perturbations. This could support an increase in the fire-weather risk next week. ...Northwest... Periodic dry and breezy conditions are likely over the Northwest, particularly the lee of the Cascades, D3/Tuesday into next weekend. While model guidance varies on the intensity, occasional downslope/gap winds nearing critical criteria are possible. Current ensemble and model consensus suggest the strongest gusts (15-25 mph) are most likely D5/Thursday and beyond as stronger troughing builds over the West. This could result in some elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions as area live fuels are expected to dry. However, confidence in exactly where or how robust this overlap will be precludes any 40% areas for now. Periodic dry and breezy conditions should continue into the weekend with at least some localized fire-weather risk. ...Great Basin... Similar to the Northwest, increasing flow aloft is likely over the Great Basin and Southwest beginning the middle of next week. As winds aloft increase, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely. However, there appears to be limited overlap of the best meteorological conditions with the driest fuels. Uncertainty currently remains too large to introduce probabilities at this time. As model consensus develops and area fuels dry, some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of Utah and Nevada. ...Dry Thunderstorms... As troughing deepens across the west next week, several shortwave perturbations will pass over the western US increasing potential for thunderstorms. Very isolated storms appear possible D3/Tuesday primarily across southern OR. Greater coverage is more likely D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday as more robust troughing and deeper moisture arrive. This could support some isolated dry thunderstorms potential, though details on convective coverage and fuel availability remain unclear. Additional storms are possible late in the week into the weekend. This could again support some lightning potential across WA and OR, but model variance is very high and confidence in any specific risk areas low. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Subtropical ridging over the western US will gradually shift eastward as it begin to break down. At the same time, southwesterly flow aloft returns to the western US early this week. Dry downslope flow will be possible over the Northwest along with the potential for a few thunderstorms with passing embedded perturbations. This could support an increase in the fire-weather risk next week. ...Northwest... Periodic dry and breezy conditions are likely over the Northwest, particularly the lee of the Cascades, D3/Tuesday into next weekend. While model guidance varies on the intensity, occasional downslope/gap winds nearing critical criteria are possible. Current ensemble and model consensus suggest the strongest gusts (15-25 mph) are most likely D5/Thursday and beyond as stronger troughing builds over the West. This could result in some elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions as area live fuels are expected to dry. However, confidence in exactly where or how robust this overlap will be precludes any 40% areas for now. Periodic dry and breezy conditions should continue into the weekend with at least some localized fire-weather risk. ...Great Basin... Similar to the Northwest, increasing flow aloft is likely over the Great Basin and Southwest beginning the middle of next week. As winds aloft increase, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely. However, there appears to be limited overlap of the best meteorological conditions with the driest fuels. Uncertainty currently remains too large to introduce probabilities at this time. As model consensus develops and area fuels dry, some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of Utah and Nevada. ...Dry Thunderstorms... As troughing deepens across the west next week, several shortwave perturbations will pass over the western US increasing potential for thunderstorms. Very isolated storms appear possible D3/Tuesday primarily across southern OR. Greater coverage is more likely D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday as more robust troughing and deeper moisture arrive. This could support some isolated dry thunderstorms potential, though details on convective coverage and fuel availability remain unclear. Additional storms are possible late in the week into the weekend. This could again support some lightning potential across WA and OR, but model variance is very high and confidence in any specific risk areas low. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0396 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0396 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0396 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0396 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0396 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0396 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 396 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 082100Z - 090400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 396 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Oklahoma Western North Texas and Low Rolling Plains * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until 1100 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 105 mph likely Widespread large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 5 inches in diameter possible A few tornadoes likely SUMMARY...Increasing intense severe storm development is expected through late afternoon into evening. This will include initial supercells capable of very large hail with a tornado risk, but a prominent potential for widespread damaging winds should evolve this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles northwest of Lubbock TX to 40 miles southeast of Chickasha OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 391...WW 392...WW 393...WW 394...WW 395... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 90 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 29035. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0394 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 394 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CAO TO 30 WSW GUY TO 15 NNW EHA. ..THORNTON..06/08/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 394 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC003-007-009-011-039-043-045-047-053-059-071-093-103-129-139- 149-151-153-082140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BEAVER BECKHAM BLAINE CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS GARFIELD GRANT HARPER KAY MAJOR NOBLE ROGER MILLS TEXAS WASHITA WOODS WOODWARD TXC011-045-065-069-075-087-111-117-129-179-191-195-205-211-233- 295-341-357-359-369-375-381-393-421-437-483-082140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BRISCOE CARSON CASTRO CHILDRESS COLLINGSWORTH DALLAM DEAF SMITH DONLEY GRAY HALL HANSFORD HARTLEY HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON Read more

WW 0394 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 394 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CAO TO 30 WSW GUY TO 15 NNW EHA. ..THORNTON..06/08/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 394 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC003-007-009-011-039-043-045-047-053-059-071-093-103-129-139- 149-151-153-082140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BEAVER BECKHAM BLAINE CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS GARFIELD GRANT HARPER KAY MAJOR NOBLE ROGER MILLS TEXAS WASHITA WOODS WOODWARD TXC011-045-065-069-075-087-111-117-129-179-191-195-205-211-233- 295-341-357-359-369-375-381-393-421-437-483-082140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BRISCOE CARSON CASTRO CHILDRESS COLLINGSWORTH DALLAM DEAF SMITH DONLEY GRAY HALL HANSFORD HARTLEY HEMPHILL HUTCHINSON Read more