SPC MD 1207

3 months ago
MD 1207 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 394...396... FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1207 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0510 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Areas affected...portions of the Texas Panhandle Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 394...396... Valid 082210Z - 082345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 394, 396 continues. SUMMARY...Multiple supercells will continue over the next few hours with a significant-severe wind/hail threat. A tornado may also accompany the more dominant, discrete supercells with unimpeded inflow. DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells have matured across the TX Panhandle over the last few hours, with 4+ inch hail recently reported with the Hall/Briscoe County, TX border storm, and a tornado reported in Dallam County, TX. Supercells across the TX Panhandle are gradually merging, and the development into an MCS may occur over the next 3-4 hours. At the moment, there are two supercells that are remaining more discrete (Hall/Briscoe County and Hartley County). These storms have relatively pristine inflow of 4000+ J/kg MLCAPE, which will support a risk for either 4-5 inch diameter hail or a tornado for the next few hours. Severe gusts remain possible with all storms. 75+ mph gusts are most likely with mature storms that merge. ..Squitieri.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 36310300 36510140 35990037 34949946 34509949 34260060 34780236 35000289 36310300 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...4.00+ IN Read more

SPC MD 1208

3 months ago
MD 1208 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 395... FOR NORTHEAST OK/SOUTHEAST KS INTO SOUTHWEST MO
Mesoscale Discussion 1208 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0518 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Areas affected...Northeast OK/southeast KS into southwest MO Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 395... Valid 082218Z - 082345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 395 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms may continue into early evening. DISCUSSION...Scattered strong storms are ongoing in the vicinity of a cold front from southeast KS/northeast OK into southwest MO. Moderate to strong buoyancy (with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg) and effective shear of 30-35 kt will continue to support strong to locally severe storms. Large hail and locally damaging winds are the most likely hazards in the short term, though some tornado threat cannot be ruled out with any supercells that can be sustained and not be undercut by outflow in this regime. Given the concentration of ongoing storms, some modest clustering cannot be ruled out as convection spreads southeastward with time. With the severe threat spreading southward across northeast OK, WW 395 has been locally expanded to the south, and additional expansions may be needed depending on convective trends. ..Dean.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 36719392 36479458 35989529 35889582 35849630 35899676 36339694 37359694 37499543 37479490 37459425 36719392 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 398

3 months ago
WW 398 SEVERE TSTM NM 082245Z - 090400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 398 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 445 PM MDT Sun Jun 8 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern New Mexico * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 445 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Isolated significant damaging wind gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Multiple supercells should pose a threat for mainly large to very large hail this afternoon and evening as they spread slowly east-southeastward. The largest hailstones may reach up to 2-3 inches in diameter, especially across far eastern New Mexico where greater low-level moisture and related instability is present. Isolated severe/damaging winds up to 65-75 mph may also occur with any thunderstorm downdrafts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles east northeast of Raton NM to 80 miles south southwest of Cannon Afb NM. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 392...WW 393...WW 394...WW 395...WW 396...WW 397... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Gleason Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 392 Status Reports

3 months ago
WW 0392 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 392 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..06/08/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 392 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-082340- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-009-017-021-027-031-033-037-043-082340- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL CALVERT CHARLES FREDERICK HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES ST. MARYS WASHINGTON VAC003-013-015-029-033-036-041-043-047-049-057-059-061-065-069- 073-075-079-085-087-095-097-099-101-103-107-109-113-115-119-125- 127-133-137-139-145-153-157-159-165-171-177-179-187-193-199-510- 540-600-610-630-650-660-683-685-700-735-760-790-820-830-840- 082340- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 392 Status Reports

3 months ago
WW 0392 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 392 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..06/08/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 392 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-082340- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-009-017-021-027-031-033-037-043-082340- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL CALVERT CHARLES FREDERICK HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES ST. MARYS WASHINGTON VAC003-013-015-029-033-036-041-043-047-049-057-059-061-065-069- 073-075-079-085-087-095-097-099-101-103-107-109-113-115-119-125- 127-133-137-139-145-153-157-159-165-171-177-179-187-193-199-510- 540-600-610-630-650-660-683-685-700-735-760-790-820-830-840- 082340- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 392

3 months ago
WW 392 TORNADO DC MD VA WV CW 081825Z - 090200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 392 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 225 PM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Maryland Northern and Central Virginia Far Eastern West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 225 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and further increase through late afternoon and evening, with damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes possible, especially near a warm front. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles north of Martinsburg WV to 20 miles southeast of Richmond VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 390...WW 391... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Guyer Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 393 Status Reports

3 months ago
WW 0393 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 393 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..06/08/25 ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 393 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC015-029-041-053-073-091-131-139-143-082340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERTIE CAMDEN CHOWAN CURRITUCK GATES HERTFORD NORTHAMPTON PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS VAC007-009-011-019-025-031-037-053-081-083-093-111-117-135-143- 147-149-163-175-181-183-530-550-570-590-595-620-670-678-680-710- 730-740-800-810-082340- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AMELIA AMHERST APPOMATTOX BEDFORD BRUNSWICK CAMPBELL CHARLOTTE DINWIDDIE GREENSVILLE HALIFAX ISLE OF WIGHT LUNENBURG MECKLENBURG NOTTOWAY PITTSYLVANIA PRINCE EDWARD PRINCE GEORGE ROCKBRIDGE SOUTHAMPTON SURRY SUSSEX Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 393 Status Reports

3 months ago
WW 0393 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 393 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..06/08/25 ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 393 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC015-029-041-053-073-091-131-139-143-082340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERTIE CAMDEN CHOWAN CURRITUCK GATES HERTFORD NORTHAMPTON PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS VAC007-009-011-019-025-031-037-053-081-083-093-111-117-135-143- 147-149-163-175-181-183-530-550-570-590-595-620-670-678-680-710- 730-740-800-810-082340- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AMELIA AMHERST APPOMATTOX BEDFORD BRUNSWICK CAMPBELL CHARLOTTE DINWIDDIE GREENSVILLE HALIFAX ISLE OF WIGHT LUNENBURG MECKLENBURG NOTTOWAY PITTSYLVANIA PRINCE EDWARD PRINCE GEORGE ROCKBRIDGE SOUTHAMPTON SURRY SUSSEX Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 393

3 months ago
WW 393 SEVERE TSTM NC VA CW 081840Z - 090200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 393 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 240 PM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast North Carolina Southern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 240 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon, with mostly a damaging wind/some hail risk across far southern Virginia and northeast North Carolina. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles east northeast of Elizabeth City NC to 10 miles west southwest of Lynchburg VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 390...WW 391...WW 392... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Guyer Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 395 Status Reports

3 months ago
WW 0395 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 395 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1208 ..DEAN..06/08/25 ATTN...WFO...LSX...ICT...SGF...EAX...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 395 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC013-061-083-149-082340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALHOUN GREENE JERSEY PIKE KSC001-011-019-021-035-037-049-099-107-125-133-191-205-082340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BOURBON CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE COWLEY CRAWFORD ELK LABETTE LINN MONTGOMERY NEOSHO SUMNER WILSON MOC007-011-013-015-019-027-029-039-051-053-055-057-059-065-071- 073-077-083-085-097-099-101-105-109-113-125-131-135-139-141-145- 151-159-161-163-167-169-183-185-189-215-217-219-221-225-229-510- Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 395 Status Reports

3 months ago
WW 0395 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 395 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1208 ..DEAN..06/08/25 ATTN...WFO...LSX...ICT...SGF...EAX...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 395 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC013-061-083-149-082340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALHOUN GREENE JERSEY PIKE KSC001-011-019-021-035-037-049-099-107-125-133-191-205-082340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BOURBON CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE COWLEY CRAWFORD ELK LABETTE LINN MONTGOMERY NEOSHO SUMNER WILSON MOC007-011-013-015-019-027-029-039-051-053-055-057-059-065-071- 073-077-083-085-097-099-101-105-109-113-125-131-135-139-141-145- 151-159-161-163-167-169-183-185-189-215-217-219-221-225-229-510- Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 395

3 months ago
WW 395 SEVERE TSTM IL KS MO OK 081930Z - 090300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 395 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 230 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Illinois Southeast Kansas Missouri Northeast Oklahoma * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 230 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop near the advancing front this afternoon, with large hail and damaging winds being the primary hazards. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 90 miles east of Columbia MO to 40 miles west northwest of Bartlesville OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 390...WW 391...WW 392...WW 393...WW 394... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 30025. ...Guyer Read more

SPC MD 1205

3 months ago
MD 1205 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 1205 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Areas affected...portions of eastern Colorado and New Mexico Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 082050Z - 082245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Large hail and severe wind threat possible this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development has been ongoing across the Front Range in Colorado and across northeastern New Mexico. The air mass across Colorado remains under the influence of MLCIN, with temperatures cooling with northern extend behind the surface cold front. Moisture is also somewhat limited, with dew points in the upper 40s to 50s. A few instances of severe hail will be possible. Across eastern New Mexico near the dryline, a gradient of more appreciable MLCAPE 500-1500 j/kg is in place along with deep layer shear around 30-45 kts. Temperatures are in the mid 70s to 80s amid dew points in the 50s to upper 60s. This may support some instances of severe wind and hail, with at least one supercell noted on radar. Trends will be monitored for watch potential, but it appears unlikely at this time. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 35430435 35720483 36590502 37720541 38440568 38860579 40050572 40140528 40170471 39990424 39230365 38670352 37760350 36110345 35830369 35430435 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC MD 1206

3 months ago
MD 1206 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1206 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0437 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Areas affected...portions of northeast Texas into western Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 082137Z - 082230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat will increase along a baroclinic boundary over the next few hours. Severe wind/hail and perhaps a tornado will occur with the stronger storms. DISCUSSION...Multiple supercell structures have become established along a broad, diffuse baroclinic boundary in northeast TX into western LA, with initiation evident west of the DFW Metroplex. MRMS mosaic radar data depicts 50 dBZ echoes reaching over 50 kft, with MESH cores exceeding 1 inch in diameter with storms closer to the TX/LA border. MLCAPE is exceeding 4500 J/kg in proximity to these storms, with modest northwesterly mid-level flow contributing to 45 kts of effective bulk shear per 21Z mesoanalysis. Given relatively weak MLCINH, these storms may persist for at least a few hours despite overall weak deep-layer ascent. Recent FWD VAD shows modestly elongated hodographs, so supercells should remain the predominant mode with the more isolated storms. Severe wind and hail may accompany these storms, and 75+ mph gusts and 3+ inch diameter hail is possible, along with a tornado. Although a relatively greater severe threat should materialize this evening, a shorter-term but appreciable threat does exist with the ongoing storms, which will necessitate a WW issuance soon. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 33119395 32309245 31689265 31579293 31419349 31409376 31749534 32289721 32529899 32899912 33399853 33439771 33669569 33119395 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

SPC MD 1203

3 months ago
MD 1203 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1203 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Areas affected...portions of western Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 082030Z - 082230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Large hail and severe wind threat may increase through the afternoon/early evening. DISCUSSION...Supercells have developed across the Davis Mountains in far western Texas this afternoon. The environment in this region is characterized by MLCAPE around 500-1500 J/kg, steep lapse rates, and deep layer shear around 40-45 kts. This will support potential for supercells to produce some instances of large to very large hail and severe winds. MLCIN does increase with eastward extent, which may limit coverage/duration of this threat. This area will be monitored for watch potential. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 29800412 30300418 30990396 31410372 31650345 31940245 31920237 31890198 31820184 31710152 31560128 31290120 31070124 30440146 29940167 29580238 29230274 29010296 28930336 29180377 29800412 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC MD 1202

3 months ago
MD 1202 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1202 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Areas affected...portions of southwestern and north-central Texas...southwestern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 082017Z - 082215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Large hail/tornado threat to increase through the afternoon before a more significant wind threat emerges. DISCUSSION...Supercell thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles as of this hour, with at least one tornado reported in Cimarron/Dallam counties. Additional development is ongoing west of Amarillo. It is likely some mix of supercell clusters will advance south and eastward through time, with potential for additional development to occur ahead of the dryline in New Mexico. Low-level shear improves with southward extent into Lubbock where surface winds are backed southeasterly improving low-level curvature of hodographs and streamwise vorticity. It is likely that as storms develop and move southward, the tornado threat will increase through time even with the shifting storm mode. A sharp gradient of extreme MLCAPE exists along the Red River near the Texas/Oklahoma border into north-central Texas amid steep low to mid-level lapse rates. As upscale growth increases, the potential will rapidly increase for destructive winds (80-100 mph). A Tornado or PDS Severe Watch is likely needed to cover this potential. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... LAT...LON 32989778 32499909 32520039 33030180 33140195 33260213 33570238 33970226 34220198 34450154 34640114 34890054 34990025 34859872 34689799 34259739 34119726 33449729 33079758 32989778 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...95-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN Read more
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