Severe Storms

WW 397 SEVERE TSTM LA TX 082205Z - 090200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 397 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 505 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far Western Louisiana North-Central and Northeast Texas * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 505 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 4 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms will likely continue to pose a threat for mainly very large to potentially giant hail this afternoon and evening as they move generally east-southeastward. Peak hailstone diameters may reach up to 3-4 inches in diameter given a very favorable environment. Otherwise, a tornado or two may occur with any intense supercell, along with scattered severe/damaging winds. A more substantial threat for destructive winds is still expected later this evening and overnight with an intense thunderstorm cluster that will move southeastward across north-central/northeast TX. Another Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be issued before 9 PM CDT to address this expected widespread significant severe wind threat. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west northwest of Mineral Wells TX to 55 miles east southeast of Longview TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 391...WW 392...WW 393...WW 394...WW 395...WW 396... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30025. ...Gleason Read more

MD 1204 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 392... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL VA AND MD
Mesoscale Discussion 1204 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Areas affected...Portions of northern/central VA and MD Concerning...Tornado Watch 392... Valid 082031Z - 082200Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 392 continues. SUMMARY...A risk for tornadoes and damaging wind gusts will persist into early evening across northern/central Virginia, and portions of Maryland. DISCUSSION...Isolated storms are ongoing closer to a surface boundary across eastern VA, and further west across the higher terrain of central VA. These storms will continue to shift east across a moderately unstable airmass and within 30-40 kt effective shear. A surface boundary extending from northern VA southeast into southeast VA will continue to support a corridor of enhanced low-level shear supporting storm rotation. A couple tornadoes and damaging gusts will remain possible over the next few hours. ..Leitman.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK... LAT...LON 39717663 37297570 37277845 39647935 39717663 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Subtropical ridging over the western US will gradually shift eastward as it begin to break down. At the same time, southwesterly flow aloft returns to the western US early this week. Dry downslope flow will be possible over the Northwest along with the potential for a few thunderstorms with passing embedded perturbations. This could support an increase in the fire-weather risk next week. ...Northwest... Periodic dry and breezy conditions are likely over the Northwest, particularly the lee of the Cascades, D3/Tuesday into next weekend. While model guidance varies on the intensity, occasional downslope/gap winds nearing critical criteria are possible. Current ensemble and model consensus suggest the strongest gusts (15-25 mph) are most likely D5/Thursday and beyond as stronger troughing builds over the West. This could result in some elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions as area live fuels are expected to dry. However, confidence in exactly where or how robust this overlap will be precludes any 40% areas for now. Periodic dry and breezy conditions should continue into the weekend with at least some localized fire-weather risk. ...Great Basin... Similar to the Northwest, increasing flow aloft is likely over the Great Basin and Southwest beginning the middle of next week. As winds aloft increase, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely. However, there appears to be limited overlap of the best meteorological conditions with the driest fuels. Uncertainty currently remains too large to introduce probabilities at this time. As model consensus develops and area fuels dry, some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of Utah and Nevada. ...Dry Thunderstorms... As troughing deepens across the west next week, several shortwave perturbations will pass over the western US increasing potential for thunderstorms. Very isolated storms appear possible D3/Tuesday primarily across southern OR. Greater coverage is more likely D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday as more robust troughing and deeper moisture arrive. This could support some isolated dry thunderstorms potential, though details on convective coverage and fuel availability remain unclear. Additional storms are possible late in the week into the weekend. This could again support some lightning potential across WA and OR, but model variance is very high and confidence in any specific risk areas low. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Subtropical ridging over the western US will gradually shift eastward as it begin to break down. At the same time, southwesterly flow aloft returns to the western US early this week. Dry downslope flow will be possible over the Northwest along with the potential for a few thunderstorms with passing embedded perturbations. This could support an increase in the fire-weather risk next week. ...Northwest... Periodic dry and breezy conditions are likely over the Northwest, particularly the lee of the Cascades, D3/Tuesday into next weekend. While model guidance varies on the intensity, occasional downslope/gap winds nearing critical criteria are possible. Current ensemble and model consensus suggest the strongest gusts (15-25 mph) are most likely D5/Thursday and beyond as stronger troughing builds over the West. This could result in some elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions as area live fuels are expected to dry. However, confidence in exactly where or how robust this overlap will be precludes any 40% areas for now. Periodic dry and breezy conditions should continue into the weekend with at least some localized fire-weather risk. ...Great Basin... Similar to the Northwest, increasing flow aloft is likely over the Great Basin and Southwest beginning the middle of next week. As winds aloft increase, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely. However, there appears to be limited overlap of the best meteorological conditions with the driest fuels. Uncertainty currently remains too large to introduce probabilities at this time. As model consensus develops and area fuels dry, some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of Utah and Nevada. ...Dry Thunderstorms... As troughing deepens across the west next week, several shortwave perturbations will pass over the western US increasing potential for thunderstorms. Very isolated storms appear possible D3/Tuesday primarily across southern OR. Greater coverage is more likely D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday as more robust troughing and deeper moisture arrive. This could support some isolated dry thunderstorms potential, though details on convective coverage and fuel availability remain unclear. Additional storms are possible late in the week into the weekend. This could again support some lightning potential across WA and OR, but model variance is very high and confidence in any specific risk areas low. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Subtropical ridging over the western US will gradually shift eastward as it begin to break down. At the same time, southwesterly flow aloft returns to the western US early this week. Dry downslope flow will be possible over the Northwest along with the potential for a few thunderstorms with passing embedded perturbations. This could support an increase in the fire-weather risk next week. ...Northwest... Periodic dry and breezy conditions are likely over the Northwest, particularly the lee of the Cascades, D3/Tuesday into next weekend. While model guidance varies on the intensity, occasional downslope/gap winds nearing critical criteria are possible. Current ensemble and model consensus suggest the strongest gusts (15-25 mph) are most likely D5/Thursday and beyond as stronger troughing builds over the West. This could result in some elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions as area live fuels are expected to dry. However, confidence in exactly where or how robust this overlap will be precludes any 40% areas for now. Periodic dry and breezy conditions should continue into the weekend with at least some localized fire-weather risk. ...Great Basin... Similar to the Northwest, increasing flow aloft is likely over the Great Basin and Southwest beginning the middle of next week. As winds aloft increase, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely. However, there appears to be limited overlap of the best meteorological conditions with the driest fuels. Uncertainty currently remains too large to introduce probabilities at this time. As model consensus develops and area fuels dry, some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of Utah and Nevada. ...Dry Thunderstorms... As troughing deepens across the west next week, several shortwave perturbations will pass over the western US increasing potential for thunderstorms. Very isolated storms appear possible D3/Tuesday primarily across southern OR. Greater coverage is more likely D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday as more robust troughing and deeper moisture arrive. This could support some isolated dry thunderstorms potential, though details on convective coverage and fuel availability remain unclear. Additional storms are possible late in the week into the weekend. This could again support some lightning potential across WA and OR, but model variance is very high and confidence in any specific risk areas low. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Subtropical ridging over the western US will gradually shift eastward as it begin to break down. At the same time, southwesterly flow aloft returns to the western US early this week. Dry downslope flow will be possible over the Northwest along with the potential for a few thunderstorms with passing embedded perturbations. This could support an increase in the fire-weather risk next week. ...Northwest... Periodic dry and breezy conditions are likely over the Northwest, particularly the lee of the Cascades, D3/Tuesday into next weekend. While model guidance varies on the intensity, occasional downslope/gap winds nearing critical criteria are possible. Current ensemble and model consensus suggest the strongest gusts (15-25 mph) are most likely D5/Thursday and beyond as stronger troughing builds over the West. This could result in some elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions as area live fuels are expected to dry. However, confidence in exactly where or how robust this overlap will be precludes any 40% areas for now. Periodic dry and breezy conditions should continue into the weekend with at least some localized fire-weather risk. ...Great Basin... Similar to the Northwest, increasing flow aloft is likely over the Great Basin and Southwest beginning the middle of next week. As winds aloft increase, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely. However, there appears to be limited overlap of the best meteorological conditions with the driest fuels. Uncertainty currently remains too large to introduce probabilities at this time. As model consensus develops and area fuels dry, some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of Utah and Nevada. ...Dry Thunderstorms... As troughing deepens across the west next week, several shortwave perturbations will pass over the western US increasing potential for thunderstorms. Very isolated storms appear possible D3/Tuesday primarily across southern OR. Greater coverage is more likely D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday as more robust troughing and deeper moisture arrive. This could support some isolated dry thunderstorms potential, though details on convective coverage and fuel availability remain unclear. Additional storms are possible late in the week into the weekend. This could again support some lightning potential across WA and OR, but model variance is very high and confidence in any specific risk areas low. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Subtropical ridging over the western US will gradually shift eastward as it begin to break down. At the same time, southwesterly flow aloft returns to the western US early this week. Dry downslope flow will be possible over the Northwest along with the potential for a few thunderstorms with passing embedded perturbations. This could support an increase in the fire-weather risk next week. ...Northwest... Periodic dry and breezy conditions are likely over the Northwest, particularly the lee of the Cascades, D3/Tuesday into next weekend. While model guidance varies on the intensity, occasional downslope/gap winds nearing critical criteria are possible. Current ensemble and model consensus suggest the strongest gusts (15-25 mph) are most likely D5/Thursday and beyond as stronger troughing builds over the West. This could result in some elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions as area live fuels are expected to dry. However, confidence in exactly where or how robust this overlap will be precludes any 40% areas for now. Periodic dry and breezy conditions should continue into the weekend with at least some localized fire-weather risk. ...Great Basin... Similar to the Northwest, increasing flow aloft is likely over the Great Basin and Southwest beginning the middle of next week. As winds aloft increase, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely. However, there appears to be limited overlap of the best meteorological conditions with the driest fuels. Uncertainty currently remains too large to introduce probabilities at this time. As model consensus develops and area fuels dry, some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of Utah and Nevada. ...Dry Thunderstorms... As troughing deepens across the west next week, several shortwave perturbations will pass over the western US increasing potential for thunderstorms. Very isolated storms appear possible D3/Tuesday primarily across southern OR. Greater coverage is more likely D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday as more robust troughing and deeper moisture arrive. This could support some isolated dry thunderstorms potential, though details on convective coverage and fuel availability remain unclear. Additional storms are possible late in the week into the weekend. This could again support some lightning potential across WA and OR, but model variance is very high and confidence in any specific risk areas low. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Subtropical ridging over the western US will gradually shift eastward as it begin to break down. At the same time, southwesterly flow aloft returns to the western US early this week. Dry downslope flow will be possible over the Northwest along with the potential for a few thunderstorms with passing embedded perturbations. This could support an increase in the fire-weather risk next week. ...Northwest... Periodic dry and breezy conditions are likely over the Northwest, particularly the lee of the Cascades, D3/Tuesday into next weekend. While model guidance varies on the intensity, occasional downslope/gap winds nearing critical criteria are possible. Current ensemble and model consensus suggest the strongest gusts (15-25 mph) are most likely D5/Thursday and beyond as stronger troughing builds over the West. This could result in some elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions as area live fuels are expected to dry. However, confidence in exactly where or how robust this overlap will be precludes any 40% areas for now. Periodic dry and breezy conditions should continue into the weekend with at least some localized fire-weather risk. ...Great Basin... Similar to the Northwest, increasing flow aloft is likely over the Great Basin and Southwest beginning the middle of next week. As winds aloft increase, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely. However, there appears to be limited overlap of the best meteorological conditions with the driest fuels. Uncertainty currently remains too large to introduce probabilities at this time. As model consensus develops and area fuels dry, some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of Utah and Nevada. ...Dry Thunderstorms... As troughing deepens across the west next week, several shortwave perturbations will pass over the western US increasing potential for thunderstorms. Very isolated storms appear possible D3/Tuesday primarily across southern OR. Greater coverage is more likely D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday as more robust troughing and deeper moisture arrive. This could support some isolated dry thunderstorms potential, though details on convective coverage and fuel availability remain unclear. Additional storms are possible late in the week into the weekend. This could again support some lightning potential across WA and OR, but model variance is very high and confidence in any specific risk areas low. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Subtropical ridging over the western US will gradually shift eastward as it begin to break down. At the same time, southwesterly flow aloft returns to the western US early this week. Dry downslope flow will be possible over the Northwest along with the potential for a few thunderstorms with passing embedded perturbations. This could support an increase in the fire-weather risk next week. ...Northwest... Periodic dry and breezy conditions are likely over the Northwest, particularly the lee of the Cascades, D3/Tuesday into next weekend. While model guidance varies on the intensity, occasional downslope/gap winds nearing critical criteria are possible. Current ensemble and model consensus suggest the strongest gusts (15-25 mph) are most likely D5/Thursday and beyond as stronger troughing builds over the West. This could result in some elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions as area live fuels are expected to dry. However, confidence in exactly where or how robust this overlap will be precludes any 40% areas for now. Periodic dry and breezy conditions should continue into the weekend with at least some localized fire-weather risk. ...Great Basin... Similar to the Northwest, increasing flow aloft is likely over the Great Basin and Southwest beginning the middle of next week. As winds aloft increase, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely. However, there appears to be limited overlap of the best meteorological conditions with the driest fuels. Uncertainty currently remains too large to introduce probabilities at this time. As model consensus develops and area fuels dry, some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of Utah and Nevada. ...Dry Thunderstorms... As troughing deepens across the west next week, several shortwave perturbations will pass over the western US increasing potential for thunderstorms. Very isolated storms appear possible D3/Tuesday primarily across southern OR. Greater coverage is more likely D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday as more robust troughing and deeper moisture arrive. This could support some isolated dry thunderstorms potential, though details on convective coverage and fuel availability remain unclear. Additional storms are possible late in the week into the weekend. This could again support some lightning potential across WA and OR, but model variance is very high and confidence in any specific risk areas low. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Subtropical ridging over the western US will gradually shift eastward as it begin to break down. At the same time, southwesterly flow aloft returns to the western US early this week. Dry downslope flow will be possible over the Northwest along with the potential for a few thunderstorms with passing embedded perturbations. This could support an increase in the fire-weather risk next week. ...Northwest... Periodic dry and breezy conditions are likely over the Northwest, particularly the lee of the Cascades, D3/Tuesday into next weekend. While model guidance varies on the intensity, occasional downslope/gap winds nearing critical criteria are possible. Current ensemble and model consensus suggest the strongest gusts (15-25 mph) are most likely D5/Thursday and beyond as stronger troughing builds over the West. This could result in some elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions as area live fuels are expected to dry. However, confidence in exactly where or how robust this overlap will be precludes any 40% areas for now. Periodic dry and breezy conditions should continue into the weekend with at least some localized fire-weather risk. ...Great Basin... Similar to the Northwest, increasing flow aloft is likely over the Great Basin and Southwest beginning the middle of next week. As winds aloft increase, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely. However, there appears to be limited overlap of the best meteorological conditions with the driest fuels. Uncertainty currently remains too large to introduce probabilities at this time. As model consensus develops and area fuels dry, some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of Utah and Nevada. ...Dry Thunderstorms... As troughing deepens across the west next week, several shortwave perturbations will pass over the western US increasing potential for thunderstorms. Very isolated storms appear possible D3/Tuesday primarily across southern OR. Greater coverage is more likely D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday as more robust troughing and deeper moisture arrive. This could support some isolated dry thunderstorms potential, though details on convective coverage and fuel availability remain unclear. Additional storms are possible late in the week into the weekend. This could again support some lightning potential across WA and OR, but model variance is very high and confidence in any specific risk areas low. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Subtropical ridging over the western US will gradually shift eastward as it begin to break down. At the same time, southwesterly flow aloft returns to the western US early this week. Dry downslope flow will be possible over the Northwest along with the potential for a few thunderstorms with passing embedded perturbations. This could support an increase in the fire-weather risk next week. ...Northwest... Periodic dry and breezy conditions are likely over the Northwest, particularly the lee of the Cascades, D3/Tuesday into next weekend. While model guidance varies on the intensity, occasional downslope/gap winds nearing critical criteria are possible. Current ensemble and model consensus suggest the strongest gusts (15-25 mph) are most likely D5/Thursday and beyond as stronger troughing builds over the West. This could result in some elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions as area live fuels are expected to dry. However, confidence in exactly where or how robust this overlap will be precludes any 40% areas for now. Periodic dry and breezy conditions should continue into the weekend with at least some localized fire-weather risk. ...Great Basin... Similar to the Northwest, increasing flow aloft is likely over the Great Basin and Southwest beginning the middle of next week. As winds aloft increase, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely. However, there appears to be limited overlap of the best meteorological conditions with the driest fuels. Uncertainty currently remains too large to introduce probabilities at this time. As model consensus develops and area fuels dry, some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of Utah and Nevada. ...Dry Thunderstorms... As troughing deepens across the west next week, several shortwave perturbations will pass over the western US increasing potential for thunderstorms. Very isolated storms appear possible D3/Tuesday primarily across southern OR. Greater coverage is more likely D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday as more robust troughing and deeper moisture arrive. This could support some isolated dry thunderstorms potential, though details on convective coverage and fuel availability remain unclear. Additional storms are possible late in the week into the weekend. This could again support some lightning potential across WA and OR, but model variance is very high and confidence in any specific risk areas low. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Subtropical ridging over the western US will gradually shift eastward as it begin to break down. At the same time, southwesterly flow aloft returns to the western US early this week. Dry downslope flow will be possible over the Northwest along with the potential for a few thunderstorms with passing embedded perturbations. This could support an increase in the fire-weather risk next week. ...Northwest... Periodic dry and breezy conditions are likely over the Northwest, particularly the lee of the Cascades, D3/Tuesday into next weekend. While model guidance varies on the intensity, occasional downslope/gap winds nearing critical criteria are possible. Current ensemble and model consensus suggest the strongest gusts (15-25 mph) are most likely D5/Thursday and beyond as stronger troughing builds over the West. This could result in some elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions as area live fuels are expected to dry. However, confidence in exactly where or how robust this overlap will be precludes any 40% areas for now. Periodic dry and breezy conditions should continue into the weekend with at least some localized fire-weather risk. ...Great Basin... Similar to the Northwest, increasing flow aloft is likely over the Great Basin and Southwest beginning the middle of next week. As winds aloft increase, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely. However, there appears to be limited overlap of the best meteorological conditions with the driest fuels. Uncertainty currently remains too large to introduce probabilities at this time. As model consensus develops and area fuels dry, some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of Utah and Nevada. ...Dry Thunderstorms... As troughing deepens across the west next week, several shortwave perturbations will pass over the western US increasing potential for thunderstorms. Very isolated storms appear possible D3/Tuesday primarily across southern OR. Greater coverage is more likely D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday as more robust troughing and deeper moisture arrive. This could support some isolated dry thunderstorms potential, though details on convective coverage and fuel availability remain unclear. Additional storms are possible late in the week into the weekend. This could again support some lightning potential across WA and OR, but model variance is very high and confidence in any specific risk areas low. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Subtropical ridging over the western US will gradually shift eastward as it begin to break down. At the same time, southwesterly flow aloft returns to the western US early this week. Dry downslope flow will be possible over the Northwest along with the potential for a few thunderstorms with passing embedded perturbations. This could support an increase in the fire-weather risk next week. ...Northwest... Periodic dry and breezy conditions are likely over the Northwest, particularly the lee of the Cascades, D3/Tuesday into next weekend. While model guidance varies on the intensity, occasional downslope/gap winds nearing critical criteria are possible. Current ensemble and model consensus suggest the strongest gusts (15-25 mph) are most likely D5/Thursday and beyond as stronger troughing builds over the West. This could result in some elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions as area live fuels are expected to dry. However, confidence in exactly where or how robust this overlap will be precludes any 40% areas for now. Periodic dry and breezy conditions should continue into the weekend with at least some localized fire-weather risk. ...Great Basin... Similar to the Northwest, increasing flow aloft is likely over the Great Basin and Southwest beginning the middle of next week. As winds aloft increase, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely. However, there appears to be limited overlap of the best meteorological conditions with the driest fuels. Uncertainty currently remains too large to introduce probabilities at this time. As model consensus develops and area fuels dry, some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of Utah and Nevada. ...Dry Thunderstorms... As troughing deepens across the west next week, several shortwave perturbations will pass over the western US increasing potential for thunderstorms. Very isolated storms appear possible D3/Tuesday primarily across southern OR. Greater coverage is more likely D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday as more robust troughing and deeper moisture arrive. This could support some isolated dry thunderstorms potential, though details on convective coverage and fuel availability remain unclear. Additional storms are possible late in the week into the weekend. This could again support some lightning potential across WA and OR, but model variance is very high and confidence in any specific risk areas low. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Subtropical ridging over the western US will gradually shift eastward as it begin to break down. At the same time, southwesterly flow aloft returns to the western US early this week. Dry downslope flow will be possible over the Northwest along with the potential for a few thunderstorms with passing embedded perturbations. This could support an increase in the fire-weather risk next week. ...Northwest... Periodic dry and breezy conditions are likely over the Northwest, particularly the lee of the Cascades, D3/Tuesday into next weekend. While model guidance varies on the intensity, occasional downslope/gap winds nearing critical criteria are possible. Current ensemble and model consensus suggest the strongest gusts (15-25 mph) are most likely D5/Thursday and beyond as stronger troughing builds over the West. This could result in some elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions as area live fuels are expected to dry. However, confidence in exactly where or how robust this overlap will be precludes any 40% areas for now. Periodic dry and breezy conditions should continue into the weekend with at least some localized fire-weather risk. ...Great Basin... Similar to the Northwest, increasing flow aloft is likely over the Great Basin and Southwest beginning the middle of next week. As winds aloft increase, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely. However, there appears to be limited overlap of the best meteorological conditions with the driest fuels. Uncertainty currently remains too large to introduce probabilities at this time. As model consensus develops and area fuels dry, some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of Utah and Nevada. ...Dry Thunderstorms... As troughing deepens across the west next week, several shortwave perturbations will pass over the western US increasing potential for thunderstorms. Very isolated storms appear possible D3/Tuesday primarily across southern OR. Greater coverage is more likely D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday as more robust troughing and deeper moisture arrive. This could support some isolated dry thunderstorms potential, though details on convective coverage and fuel availability remain unclear. Additional storms are possible late in the week into the weekend. This could again support some lightning potential across WA and OR, but model variance is very high and confidence in any specific risk areas low. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Subtropical ridging over the western US will gradually shift eastward as it begin to break down. At the same time, southwesterly flow aloft returns to the western US early this week. Dry downslope flow will be possible over the Northwest along with the potential for a few thunderstorms with passing embedded perturbations. This could support an increase in the fire-weather risk next week. ...Northwest... Periodic dry and breezy conditions are likely over the Northwest, particularly the lee of the Cascades, D3/Tuesday into next weekend. While model guidance varies on the intensity, occasional downslope/gap winds nearing critical criteria are possible. Current ensemble and model consensus suggest the strongest gusts (15-25 mph) are most likely D5/Thursday and beyond as stronger troughing builds over the West. This could result in some elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions as area live fuels are expected to dry. However, confidence in exactly where or how robust this overlap will be precludes any 40% areas for now. Periodic dry and breezy conditions should continue into the weekend with at least some localized fire-weather risk. ...Great Basin... Similar to the Northwest, increasing flow aloft is likely over the Great Basin and Southwest beginning the middle of next week. As winds aloft increase, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely. However, there appears to be limited overlap of the best meteorological conditions with the driest fuels. Uncertainty currently remains too large to introduce probabilities at this time. As model consensus develops and area fuels dry, some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of Utah and Nevada. ...Dry Thunderstorms... As troughing deepens across the west next week, several shortwave perturbations will pass over the western US increasing potential for thunderstorms. Very isolated storms appear possible D3/Tuesday primarily across southern OR. Greater coverage is more likely D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday as more robust troughing and deeper moisture arrive. This could support some isolated dry thunderstorms potential, though details on convective coverage and fuel availability remain unclear. Additional storms are possible late in the week into the weekend. This could again support some lightning potential across WA and OR, but model variance is very high and confidence in any specific risk areas low. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Subtropical ridging over the western US will gradually shift eastward as it begin to break down. At the same time, southwesterly flow aloft returns to the western US early this week. Dry downslope flow will be possible over the Northwest along with the potential for a few thunderstorms with passing embedded perturbations. This could support an increase in the fire-weather risk next week. ...Northwest... Periodic dry and breezy conditions are likely over the Northwest, particularly the lee of the Cascades, D3/Tuesday into next weekend. While model guidance varies on the intensity, occasional downslope/gap winds nearing critical criteria are possible. Current ensemble and model consensus suggest the strongest gusts (15-25 mph) are most likely D5/Thursday and beyond as stronger troughing builds over the West. This could result in some elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions as area live fuels are expected to dry. However, confidence in exactly where or how robust this overlap will be precludes any 40% areas for now. Periodic dry and breezy conditions should continue into the weekend with at least some localized fire-weather risk. ...Great Basin... Similar to the Northwest, increasing flow aloft is likely over the Great Basin and Southwest beginning the middle of next week. As winds aloft increase, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely. However, there appears to be limited overlap of the best meteorological conditions with the driest fuels. Uncertainty currently remains too large to introduce probabilities at this time. As model consensus develops and area fuels dry, some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of Utah and Nevada. ...Dry Thunderstorms... As troughing deepens across the west next week, several shortwave perturbations will pass over the western US increasing potential for thunderstorms. Very isolated storms appear possible D3/Tuesday primarily across southern OR. Greater coverage is more likely D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday as more robust troughing and deeper moisture arrive. This could support some isolated dry thunderstorms potential, though details on convective coverage and fuel availability remain unclear. Additional storms are possible late in the week into the weekend. This could again support some lightning potential across WA and OR, but model variance is very high and confidence in any specific risk areas low. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Subtropical ridging over the western US will gradually shift eastward as it begin to break down. At the same time, southwesterly flow aloft returns to the western US early this week. Dry downslope flow will be possible over the Northwest along with the potential for a few thunderstorms with passing embedded perturbations. This could support an increase in the fire-weather risk next week. ...Northwest... Periodic dry and breezy conditions are likely over the Northwest, particularly the lee of the Cascades, D3/Tuesday into next weekend. While model guidance varies on the intensity, occasional downslope/gap winds nearing critical criteria are possible. Current ensemble and model consensus suggest the strongest gusts (15-25 mph) are most likely D5/Thursday and beyond as stronger troughing builds over the West. This could result in some elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions as area live fuels are expected to dry. However, confidence in exactly where or how robust this overlap will be precludes any 40% areas for now. Periodic dry and breezy conditions should continue into the weekend with at least some localized fire-weather risk. ...Great Basin... Similar to the Northwest, increasing flow aloft is likely over the Great Basin and Southwest beginning the middle of next week. As winds aloft increase, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely. However, there appears to be limited overlap of the best meteorological conditions with the driest fuels. Uncertainty currently remains too large to introduce probabilities at this time. As model consensus develops and area fuels dry, some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of Utah and Nevada. ...Dry Thunderstorms... As troughing deepens across the west next week, several shortwave perturbations will pass over the western US increasing potential for thunderstorms. Very isolated storms appear possible D3/Tuesday primarily across southern OR. Greater coverage is more likely D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday as more robust troughing and deeper moisture arrive. This could support some isolated dry thunderstorms potential, though details on convective coverage and fuel availability remain unclear. Additional storms are possible late in the week into the weekend. This could again support some lightning potential across WA and OR, but model variance is very high and confidence in any specific risk areas low. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Subtropical ridging over the western US will gradually shift eastward as it begin to break down. At the same time, southwesterly flow aloft returns to the western US early this week. Dry downslope flow will be possible over the Northwest along with the potential for a few thunderstorms with passing embedded perturbations. This could support an increase in the fire-weather risk next week. ...Northwest... Periodic dry and breezy conditions are likely over the Northwest, particularly the lee of the Cascades, D3/Tuesday into next weekend. While model guidance varies on the intensity, occasional downslope/gap winds nearing critical criteria are possible. Current ensemble and model consensus suggest the strongest gusts (15-25 mph) are most likely D5/Thursday and beyond as stronger troughing builds over the West. This could result in some elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions as area live fuels are expected to dry. However, confidence in exactly where or how robust this overlap will be precludes any 40% areas for now. Periodic dry and breezy conditions should continue into the weekend with at least some localized fire-weather risk. ...Great Basin... Similar to the Northwest, increasing flow aloft is likely over the Great Basin and Southwest beginning the middle of next week. As winds aloft increase, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely. However, there appears to be limited overlap of the best meteorological conditions with the driest fuels. Uncertainty currently remains too large to introduce probabilities at this time. As model consensus develops and area fuels dry, some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of Utah and Nevada. ...Dry Thunderstorms... As troughing deepens across the west next week, several shortwave perturbations will pass over the western US increasing potential for thunderstorms. Very isolated storms appear possible D3/Tuesday primarily across southern OR. Greater coverage is more likely D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday as more robust troughing and deeper moisture arrive. This could support some isolated dry thunderstorms potential, though details on convective coverage and fuel availability remain unclear. Additional storms are possible late in the week into the weekend. This could again support some lightning potential across WA and OR, but model variance is very high and confidence in any specific risk areas low. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Subtropical ridging over the western US will gradually shift eastward as it begin to break down. At the same time, southwesterly flow aloft returns to the western US early this week. Dry downslope flow will be possible over the Northwest along with the potential for a few thunderstorms with passing embedded perturbations. This could support an increase in the fire-weather risk next week. ...Northwest... Periodic dry and breezy conditions are likely over the Northwest, particularly the lee of the Cascades, D3/Tuesday into next weekend. While model guidance varies on the intensity, occasional downslope/gap winds nearing critical criteria are possible. Current ensemble and model consensus suggest the strongest gusts (15-25 mph) are most likely D5/Thursday and beyond as stronger troughing builds over the West. This could result in some elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions as area live fuels are expected to dry. However, confidence in exactly where or how robust this overlap will be precludes any 40% areas for now. Periodic dry and breezy conditions should continue into the weekend with at least some localized fire-weather risk. ...Great Basin... Similar to the Northwest, increasing flow aloft is likely over the Great Basin and Southwest beginning the middle of next week. As winds aloft increase, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely. However, there appears to be limited overlap of the best meteorological conditions with the driest fuels. Uncertainty currently remains too large to introduce probabilities at this time. As model consensus develops and area fuels dry, some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of Utah and Nevada. ...Dry Thunderstorms... As troughing deepens across the west next week, several shortwave perturbations will pass over the western US increasing potential for thunderstorms. Very isolated storms appear possible D3/Tuesday primarily across southern OR. Greater coverage is more likely D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday as more robust troughing and deeper moisture arrive. This could support some isolated dry thunderstorms potential, though details on convective coverage and fuel availability remain unclear. Additional storms are possible late in the week into the weekend. This could again support some lightning potential across WA and OR, but model variance is very high and confidence in any specific risk areas low. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Subtropical ridging over the western US will gradually shift eastward as it begin to break down. At the same time, southwesterly flow aloft returns to the western US early this week. Dry downslope flow will be possible over the Northwest along with the potential for a few thunderstorms with passing embedded perturbations. This could support an increase in the fire-weather risk next week. ...Northwest... Periodic dry and breezy conditions are likely over the Northwest, particularly the lee of the Cascades, D3/Tuesday into next weekend. While model guidance varies on the intensity, occasional downslope/gap winds nearing critical criteria are possible. Current ensemble and model consensus suggest the strongest gusts (15-25 mph) are most likely D5/Thursday and beyond as stronger troughing builds over the West. This could result in some elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions as area live fuels are expected to dry. However, confidence in exactly where or how robust this overlap will be precludes any 40% areas for now. Periodic dry and breezy conditions should continue into the weekend with at least some localized fire-weather risk. ...Great Basin... Similar to the Northwest, increasing flow aloft is likely over the Great Basin and Southwest beginning the middle of next week. As winds aloft increase, several days of dry and breezy conditions are likely. However, there appears to be limited overlap of the best meteorological conditions with the driest fuels. Uncertainty currently remains too large to introduce probabilities at this time. As model consensus develops and area fuels dry, some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of Utah and Nevada. ...Dry Thunderstorms... As troughing deepens across the west next week, several shortwave perturbations will pass over the western US increasing potential for thunderstorms. Very isolated storms appear possible D3/Tuesday primarily across southern OR. Greater coverage is more likely D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday as more robust troughing and deeper moisture arrive. This could support some isolated dry thunderstorms potential, though details on convective coverage and fuel availability remain unclear. Additional storms are possible late in the week into the weekend. This could again support some lightning potential across WA and OR, but model variance is very high and confidence in any specific risk areas low. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more