Severe Storms

WW 0395 Status Updates
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WW 0395 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0395 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EAST COAST...OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL MT...AND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHERN LA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday into Tuesday evening along parts of the East Coast, from southeast New Mexico to south Louisiana, and along the lee of the Montana Rockies. ...East Coast... Upper troughing is expected to extend from central Ontario through the TN Valley early Tuesday morning, with moderate mid-level southwesterly flow throughout its eastern periphery from the central Appalachians through the Northeast. Expectation is for this troughing to progress eastward during the day as an embedded shortwave trough moves through the Upper OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes. An associated surface low will move just ahead of this shortwave, with an attendant cold front moving through the Mid-Atlantic. Severe potential across the region should be confined to the late morning and afternoon period ahead of the weakening cold front. The strongest shear will be displaced north of the higher buoyancy, somewhat limiting the overall severe potential. Even so, there should still be enough overlap for isolated severe storms, particularly across southeast VA and eastern NC. Isolated damaging wind gusts are the primary risk. ...Lower MS Valley across the TX Coastal Plains into the TX Hill Country... A composite cold front/outflow boundary will likely extend from west-central LA to the Edwards Plateau early Tuesday morning. A convectively generated vorticity maximum may also be over central TX, although uncertainty regarding the strength and location of this vorticity maximum is high at this forecast range. The presence of a vorticity maximum potentially in close proximity to the weak surface boundary complicates the overall forecast, since both features could provide the lift needed for convective initiation. However, mesoscale nature of these features as well as their interactions limits predictability. At this point, thunderstorms appear possible and conditions suggest some would be strong/severe. Higher severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks as predictability increases. ...Southeast NM and Far West TX... Strong heating and deep boundary-layer mixing is anticipated over the region on Tuesday. However, moderate/strong low-level moisture advection will help offset low-level mixing, allowing for dewpoints to remain in the low to mid 60s. Resulting combination of steep mid-level lapse rates and low-level moisture will support late afternoon airmass destabilization and strong buoyancy. A low-amplitude shortwave trough will be approaching the region, with lift ahead of this wave combining with low-level convergence along the dryline to support thunderstorm initiation. Environmental conditions support supercells capable of large to very large hail initially, with some wind gust threat as well. Overall coverage is uncertain, which merits keeping low severe probabilities for this outlook. ...Lee of the MT Rockies... Upper ridging is forecast to dampen throughout the period, with the mid to upper-level flow becoming more westerly. A weak vorticity maximum will move through this westerly flow, augmenting orographic ascent and helping to aid thunderstorm development across the high terrain. Moderate speed shear should result in a couple lower-end/high-based supercells as storms develop off the higher terrain of western to south-central MT. Weak buoyancy suggests that marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts should be the main threats. ..Mosier.. 06/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EAST COAST...OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL MT...AND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHERN LA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday into Tuesday evening along parts of the East Coast, from southeast New Mexico to south Louisiana, and along the lee of the Montana Rockies. ...East Coast... Upper troughing is expected to extend from central Ontario through the TN Valley early Tuesday morning, with moderate mid-level southwesterly flow throughout its eastern periphery from the central Appalachians through the Northeast. Expectation is for this troughing to progress eastward during the day as an embedded shortwave trough moves through the Upper OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes. An associated surface low will move just ahead of this shortwave, with an attendant cold front moving through the Mid-Atlantic. Severe potential across the region should be confined to the late morning and afternoon period ahead of the weakening cold front. The strongest shear will be displaced north of the higher buoyancy, somewhat limiting the overall severe potential. Even so, there should still be enough overlap for isolated severe storms, particularly across southeast VA and eastern NC. Isolated damaging wind gusts are the primary risk. ...Lower MS Valley across the TX Coastal Plains into the TX Hill Country... A composite cold front/outflow boundary will likely extend from west-central LA to the Edwards Plateau early Tuesday morning. A convectively generated vorticity maximum may also be over central TX, although uncertainty regarding the strength and location of this vorticity maximum is high at this forecast range. The presence of a vorticity maximum potentially in close proximity to the weak surface boundary complicates the overall forecast, since both features could provide the lift needed for convective initiation. However, mesoscale nature of these features as well as their interactions limits predictability. At this point, thunderstorms appear possible and conditions suggest some would be strong/severe. Higher severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks as predictability increases. ...Southeast NM and Far West TX... Strong heating and deep boundary-layer mixing is anticipated over the region on Tuesday. However, moderate/strong low-level moisture advection will help offset low-level mixing, allowing for dewpoints to remain in the low to mid 60s. Resulting combination of steep mid-level lapse rates and low-level moisture will support late afternoon airmass destabilization and strong buoyancy. A low-amplitude shortwave trough will be approaching the region, with lift ahead of this wave combining with low-level convergence along the dryline to support thunderstorm initiation. Environmental conditions support supercells capable of large to very large hail initially, with some wind gust threat as well. Overall coverage is uncertain, which merits keeping low severe probabilities for this outlook. ...Lee of the MT Rockies... Upper ridging is forecast to dampen throughout the period, with the mid to upper-level flow becoming more westerly. A weak vorticity maximum will move through this westerly flow, augmenting orographic ascent and helping to aid thunderstorm development across the high terrain. Moderate speed shear should result in a couple lower-end/high-based supercells as storms develop off the higher terrain of western to south-central MT. Weak buoyancy suggests that marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts should be the main threats. ..Mosier.. 06/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EAST COAST...OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL MT...AND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHERN LA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday into Tuesday evening along parts of the East Coast, from southeast New Mexico to south Louisiana, and along the lee of the Montana Rockies. ...East Coast... Upper troughing is expected to extend from central Ontario through the TN Valley early Tuesday morning, with moderate mid-level southwesterly flow throughout its eastern periphery from the central Appalachians through the Northeast. Expectation is for this troughing to progress eastward during the day as an embedded shortwave trough moves through the Upper OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes. An associated surface low will move just ahead of this shortwave, with an attendant cold front moving through the Mid-Atlantic. Severe potential across the region should be confined to the late morning and afternoon period ahead of the weakening cold front. The strongest shear will be displaced north of the higher buoyancy, somewhat limiting the overall severe potential. Even so, there should still be enough overlap for isolated severe storms, particularly across southeast VA and eastern NC. Isolated damaging wind gusts are the primary risk. ...Lower MS Valley across the TX Coastal Plains into the TX Hill Country... A composite cold front/outflow boundary will likely extend from west-central LA to the Edwards Plateau early Tuesday morning. A convectively generated vorticity maximum may also be over central TX, although uncertainty regarding the strength and location of this vorticity maximum is high at this forecast range. The presence of a vorticity maximum potentially in close proximity to the weak surface boundary complicates the overall forecast, since both features could provide the lift needed for convective initiation. However, mesoscale nature of these features as well as their interactions limits predictability. At this point, thunderstorms appear possible and conditions suggest some would be strong/severe. Higher severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks as predictability increases. ...Southeast NM and Far West TX... Strong heating and deep boundary-layer mixing is anticipated over the region on Tuesday. However, moderate/strong low-level moisture advection will help offset low-level mixing, allowing for dewpoints to remain in the low to mid 60s. Resulting combination of steep mid-level lapse rates and low-level moisture will support late afternoon airmass destabilization and strong buoyancy. A low-amplitude shortwave trough will be approaching the region, with lift ahead of this wave combining with low-level convergence along the dryline to support thunderstorm initiation. Environmental conditions support supercells capable of large to very large hail initially, with some wind gust threat as well. Overall coverage is uncertain, which merits keeping low severe probabilities for this outlook. ...Lee of the MT Rockies... Upper ridging is forecast to dampen throughout the period, with the mid to upper-level flow becoming more westerly. A weak vorticity maximum will move through this westerly flow, augmenting orographic ascent and helping to aid thunderstorm development across the high terrain. Moderate speed shear should result in a couple lower-end/high-based supercells as storms develop off the higher terrain of western to south-central MT. Weak buoyancy suggests that marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts should be the main threats. ..Mosier.. 06/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EAST COAST...OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL MT...AND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHERN LA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday into Tuesday evening along parts of the East Coast, from southeast New Mexico to south Louisiana, and along the lee of the Montana Rockies. ...East Coast... Upper troughing is expected to extend from central Ontario through the TN Valley early Tuesday morning, with moderate mid-level southwesterly flow throughout its eastern periphery from the central Appalachians through the Northeast. Expectation is for this troughing to progress eastward during the day as an embedded shortwave trough moves through the Upper OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes. An associated surface low will move just ahead of this shortwave, with an attendant cold front moving through the Mid-Atlantic. Severe potential across the region should be confined to the late morning and afternoon period ahead of the weakening cold front. The strongest shear will be displaced north of the higher buoyancy, somewhat limiting the overall severe potential. Even so, there should still be enough overlap for isolated severe storms, particularly across southeast VA and eastern NC. Isolated damaging wind gusts are the primary risk. ...Lower MS Valley across the TX Coastal Plains into the TX Hill Country... A composite cold front/outflow boundary will likely extend from west-central LA to the Edwards Plateau early Tuesday morning. A convectively generated vorticity maximum may also be over central TX, although uncertainty regarding the strength and location of this vorticity maximum is high at this forecast range. The presence of a vorticity maximum potentially in close proximity to the weak surface boundary complicates the overall forecast, since both features could provide the lift needed for convective initiation. However, mesoscale nature of these features as well as their interactions limits predictability. At this point, thunderstorms appear possible and conditions suggest some would be strong/severe. Higher severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks as predictability increases. ...Southeast NM and Far West TX... Strong heating and deep boundary-layer mixing is anticipated over the region on Tuesday. However, moderate/strong low-level moisture advection will help offset low-level mixing, allowing for dewpoints to remain in the low to mid 60s. Resulting combination of steep mid-level lapse rates and low-level moisture will support late afternoon airmass destabilization and strong buoyancy. A low-amplitude shortwave trough will be approaching the region, with lift ahead of this wave combining with low-level convergence along the dryline to support thunderstorm initiation. Environmental conditions support supercells capable of large to very large hail initially, with some wind gust threat as well. Overall coverage is uncertain, which merits keeping low severe probabilities for this outlook. ...Lee of the MT Rockies... Upper ridging is forecast to dampen throughout the period, with the mid to upper-level flow becoming more westerly. A weak vorticity maximum will move through this westerly flow, augmenting orographic ascent and helping to aid thunderstorm development across the high terrain. Moderate speed shear should result in a couple lower-end/high-based supercells as storms develop off the higher terrain of western to south-central MT. Weak buoyancy suggests that marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts should be the main threats. ..Mosier.. 06/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EAST COAST...OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL MT...AND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHERN LA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday into Tuesday evening along parts of the East Coast, from southeast New Mexico to south Louisiana, and along the lee of the Montana Rockies. ...East Coast... Upper troughing is expected to extend from central Ontario through the TN Valley early Tuesday morning, with moderate mid-level southwesterly flow throughout its eastern periphery from the central Appalachians through the Northeast. Expectation is for this troughing to progress eastward during the day as an embedded shortwave trough moves through the Upper OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes. An associated surface low will move just ahead of this shortwave, with an attendant cold front moving through the Mid-Atlantic. Severe potential across the region should be confined to the late morning and afternoon period ahead of the weakening cold front. The strongest shear will be displaced north of the higher buoyancy, somewhat limiting the overall severe potential. Even so, there should still be enough overlap for isolated severe storms, particularly across southeast VA and eastern NC. Isolated damaging wind gusts are the primary risk. ...Lower MS Valley across the TX Coastal Plains into the TX Hill Country... A composite cold front/outflow boundary will likely extend from west-central LA to the Edwards Plateau early Tuesday morning. A convectively generated vorticity maximum may also be over central TX, although uncertainty regarding the strength and location of this vorticity maximum is high at this forecast range. The presence of a vorticity maximum potentially in close proximity to the weak surface boundary complicates the overall forecast, since both features could provide the lift needed for convective initiation. However, mesoscale nature of these features as well as their interactions limits predictability. At this point, thunderstorms appear possible and conditions suggest some would be strong/severe. Higher severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks as predictability increases. ...Southeast NM and Far West TX... Strong heating and deep boundary-layer mixing is anticipated over the region on Tuesday. However, moderate/strong low-level moisture advection will help offset low-level mixing, allowing for dewpoints to remain in the low to mid 60s. Resulting combination of steep mid-level lapse rates and low-level moisture will support late afternoon airmass destabilization and strong buoyancy. A low-amplitude shortwave trough will be approaching the region, with lift ahead of this wave combining with low-level convergence along the dryline to support thunderstorm initiation. Environmental conditions support supercells capable of large to very large hail initially, with some wind gust threat as well. Overall coverage is uncertain, which merits keeping low severe probabilities for this outlook. ...Lee of the MT Rockies... Upper ridging is forecast to dampen throughout the period, with the mid to upper-level flow becoming more westerly. A weak vorticity maximum will move through this westerly flow, augmenting orographic ascent and helping to aid thunderstorm development across the high terrain. Moderate speed shear should result in a couple lower-end/high-based supercells as storms develop off the higher terrain of western to south-central MT. Weak buoyancy suggests that marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts should be the main threats. ..Mosier.. 06/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EAST COAST...OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL MT...AND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHERN LA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday into Tuesday evening along parts of the East Coast, from southeast New Mexico to south Louisiana, and along the lee of the Montana Rockies. ...East Coast... Upper troughing is expected to extend from central Ontario through the TN Valley early Tuesday morning, with moderate mid-level southwesterly flow throughout its eastern periphery from the central Appalachians through the Northeast. Expectation is for this troughing to progress eastward during the day as an embedded shortwave trough moves through the Upper OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes. An associated surface low will move just ahead of this shortwave, with an attendant cold front moving through the Mid-Atlantic. Severe potential across the region should be confined to the late morning and afternoon period ahead of the weakening cold front. The strongest shear will be displaced north of the higher buoyancy, somewhat limiting the overall severe potential. Even so, there should still be enough overlap for isolated severe storms, particularly across southeast VA and eastern NC. Isolated damaging wind gusts are the primary risk. ...Lower MS Valley across the TX Coastal Plains into the TX Hill Country... A composite cold front/outflow boundary will likely extend from west-central LA to the Edwards Plateau early Tuesday morning. A convectively generated vorticity maximum may also be over central TX, although uncertainty regarding the strength and location of this vorticity maximum is high at this forecast range. The presence of a vorticity maximum potentially in close proximity to the weak surface boundary complicates the overall forecast, since both features could provide the lift needed for convective initiation. However, mesoscale nature of these features as well as their interactions limits predictability. At this point, thunderstorms appear possible and conditions suggest some would be strong/severe. Higher severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks as predictability increases. ...Southeast NM and Far West TX... Strong heating and deep boundary-layer mixing is anticipated over the region on Tuesday. However, moderate/strong low-level moisture advection will help offset low-level mixing, allowing for dewpoints to remain in the low to mid 60s. Resulting combination of steep mid-level lapse rates and low-level moisture will support late afternoon airmass destabilization and strong buoyancy. A low-amplitude shortwave trough will be approaching the region, with lift ahead of this wave combining with low-level convergence along the dryline to support thunderstorm initiation. Environmental conditions support supercells capable of large to very large hail initially, with some wind gust threat as well. Overall coverage is uncertain, which merits keeping low severe probabilities for this outlook. ...Lee of the MT Rockies... Upper ridging is forecast to dampen throughout the period, with the mid to upper-level flow becoming more westerly. A weak vorticity maximum will move through this westerly flow, augmenting orographic ascent and helping to aid thunderstorm development across the high terrain. Moderate speed shear should result in a couple lower-end/high-based supercells as storms develop off the higher terrain of western to south-central MT. Weak buoyancy suggests that marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts should be the main threats. ..Mosier.. 06/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EAST COAST...OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL MT...AND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHERN LA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday into Tuesday evening along parts of the East Coast, from southeast New Mexico to south Louisiana, and along the lee of the Montana Rockies. ...East Coast... Upper troughing is expected to extend from central Ontario through the TN Valley early Tuesday morning, with moderate mid-level southwesterly flow throughout its eastern periphery from the central Appalachians through the Northeast. Expectation is for this troughing to progress eastward during the day as an embedded shortwave trough moves through the Upper OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes. An associated surface low will move just ahead of this shortwave, with an attendant cold front moving through the Mid-Atlantic. Severe potential across the region should be confined to the late morning and afternoon period ahead of the weakening cold front. The strongest shear will be displaced north of the higher buoyancy, somewhat limiting the overall severe potential. Even so, there should still be enough overlap for isolated severe storms, particularly across southeast VA and eastern NC. Isolated damaging wind gusts are the primary risk. ...Lower MS Valley across the TX Coastal Plains into the TX Hill Country... A composite cold front/outflow boundary will likely extend from west-central LA to the Edwards Plateau early Tuesday morning. A convectively generated vorticity maximum may also be over central TX, although uncertainty regarding the strength and location of this vorticity maximum is high at this forecast range. The presence of a vorticity maximum potentially in close proximity to the weak surface boundary complicates the overall forecast, since both features could provide the lift needed for convective initiation. However, mesoscale nature of these features as well as their interactions limits predictability. At this point, thunderstorms appear possible and conditions suggest some would be strong/severe. Higher severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks as predictability increases. ...Southeast NM and Far West TX... Strong heating and deep boundary-layer mixing is anticipated over the region on Tuesday. However, moderate/strong low-level moisture advection will help offset low-level mixing, allowing for dewpoints to remain in the low to mid 60s. Resulting combination of steep mid-level lapse rates and low-level moisture will support late afternoon airmass destabilization and strong buoyancy. A low-amplitude shortwave trough will be approaching the region, with lift ahead of this wave combining with low-level convergence along the dryline to support thunderstorm initiation. Environmental conditions support supercells capable of large to very large hail initially, with some wind gust threat as well. Overall coverage is uncertain, which merits keeping low severe probabilities for this outlook. ...Lee of the MT Rockies... Upper ridging is forecast to dampen throughout the period, with the mid to upper-level flow becoming more westerly. A weak vorticity maximum will move through this westerly flow, augmenting orographic ascent and helping to aid thunderstorm development across the high terrain. Moderate speed shear should result in a couple lower-end/high-based supercells as storms develop off the higher terrain of western to south-central MT. Weak buoyancy suggests that marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts should be the main threats. ..Mosier.. 06/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EAST COAST...OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL MT...AND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHERN LA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday into Tuesday evening along parts of the East Coast, from southeast New Mexico to south Louisiana, and along the lee of the Montana Rockies. ...East Coast... Upper troughing is expected to extend from central Ontario through the TN Valley early Tuesday morning, with moderate mid-level southwesterly flow throughout its eastern periphery from the central Appalachians through the Northeast. Expectation is for this troughing to progress eastward during the day as an embedded shortwave trough moves through the Upper OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes. An associated surface low will move just ahead of this shortwave, with an attendant cold front moving through the Mid-Atlantic. Severe potential across the region should be confined to the late morning and afternoon period ahead of the weakening cold front. The strongest shear will be displaced north of the higher buoyancy, somewhat limiting the overall severe potential. Even so, there should still be enough overlap for isolated severe storms, particularly across southeast VA and eastern NC. Isolated damaging wind gusts are the primary risk. ...Lower MS Valley across the TX Coastal Plains into the TX Hill Country... A composite cold front/outflow boundary will likely extend from west-central LA to the Edwards Plateau early Tuesday morning. A convectively generated vorticity maximum may also be over central TX, although uncertainty regarding the strength and location of this vorticity maximum is high at this forecast range. The presence of a vorticity maximum potentially in close proximity to the weak surface boundary complicates the overall forecast, since both features could provide the lift needed for convective initiation. However, mesoscale nature of these features as well as their interactions limits predictability. At this point, thunderstorms appear possible and conditions suggest some would be strong/severe. Higher severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks as predictability increases. ...Southeast NM and Far West TX... Strong heating and deep boundary-layer mixing is anticipated over the region on Tuesday. However, moderate/strong low-level moisture advection will help offset low-level mixing, allowing for dewpoints to remain in the low to mid 60s. Resulting combination of steep mid-level lapse rates and low-level moisture will support late afternoon airmass destabilization and strong buoyancy. A low-amplitude shortwave trough will be approaching the region, with lift ahead of this wave combining with low-level convergence along the dryline to support thunderstorm initiation. Environmental conditions support supercells capable of large to very large hail initially, with some wind gust threat as well. Overall coverage is uncertain, which merits keeping low severe probabilities for this outlook. ...Lee of the MT Rockies... Upper ridging is forecast to dampen throughout the period, with the mid to upper-level flow becoming more westerly. A weak vorticity maximum will move through this westerly flow, augmenting orographic ascent and helping to aid thunderstorm development across the high terrain. Moderate speed shear should result in a couple lower-end/high-based supercells as storms develop off the higher terrain of western to south-central MT. Weak buoyancy suggests that marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts should be the main threats. ..Mosier.. 06/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EAST COAST...OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL MT...AND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHERN LA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday into Tuesday evening along parts of the East Coast, from southeast New Mexico to south Louisiana, and along the lee of the Montana Rockies. ...East Coast... Upper troughing is expected to extend from central Ontario through the TN Valley early Tuesday morning, with moderate mid-level southwesterly flow throughout its eastern periphery from the central Appalachians through the Northeast. Expectation is for this troughing to progress eastward during the day as an embedded shortwave trough moves through the Upper OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes. An associated surface low will move just ahead of this shortwave, with an attendant cold front moving through the Mid-Atlantic. Severe potential across the region should be confined to the late morning and afternoon period ahead of the weakening cold front. The strongest shear will be displaced north of the higher buoyancy, somewhat limiting the overall severe potential. Even so, there should still be enough overlap for isolated severe storms, particularly across southeast VA and eastern NC. Isolated damaging wind gusts are the primary risk. ...Lower MS Valley across the TX Coastal Plains into the TX Hill Country... A composite cold front/outflow boundary will likely extend from west-central LA to the Edwards Plateau early Tuesday morning. A convectively generated vorticity maximum may also be over central TX, although uncertainty regarding the strength and location of this vorticity maximum is high at this forecast range. The presence of a vorticity maximum potentially in close proximity to the weak surface boundary complicates the overall forecast, since both features could provide the lift needed for convective initiation. However, mesoscale nature of these features as well as their interactions limits predictability. At this point, thunderstorms appear possible and conditions suggest some would be strong/severe. Higher severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks as predictability increases. ...Southeast NM and Far West TX... Strong heating and deep boundary-layer mixing is anticipated over the region on Tuesday. However, moderate/strong low-level moisture advection will help offset low-level mixing, allowing for dewpoints to remain in the low to mid 60s. Resulting combination of steep mid-level lapse rates and low-level moisture will support late afternoon airmass destabilization and strong buoyancy. A low-amplitude shortwave trough will be approaching the region, with lift ahead of this wave combining with low-level convergence along the dryline to support thunderstorm initiation. Environmental conditions support supercells capable of large to very large hail initially, with some wind gust threat as well. Overall coverage is uncertain, which merits keeping low severe probabilities for this outlook. ...Lee of the MT Rockies... Upper ridging is forecast to dampen throughout the period, with the mid to upper-level flow becoming more westerly. A weak vorticity maximum will move through this westerly flow, augmenting orographic ascent and helping to aid thunderstorm development across the high terrain. Moderate speed shear should result in a couple lower-end/high-based supercells as storms develop off the higher terrain of western to south-central MT. Weak buoyancy suggests that marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts should be the main threats. ..Mosier.. 06/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EAST COAST...OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL MT...AND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHERN LA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday into Tuesday evening along parts of the East Coast, from southeast New Mexico to south Louisiana, and along the lee of the Montana Rockies. ...East Coast... Upper troughing is expected to extend from central Ontario through the TN Valley early Tuesday morning, with moderate mid-level southwesterly flow throughout its eastern periphery from the central Appalachians through the Northeast. Expectation is for this troughing to progress eastward during the day as an embedded shortwave trough moves through the Upper OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes. An associated surface low will move just ahead of this shortwave, with an attendant cold front moving through the Mid-Atlantic. Severe potential across the region should be confined to the late morning and afternoon period ahead of the weakening cold front. The strongest shear will be displaced north of the higher buoyancy, somewhat limiting the overall severe potential. Even so, there should still be enough overlap for isolated severe storms, particularly across southeast VA and eastern NC. Isolated damaging wind gusts are the primary risk. ...Lower MS Valley across the TX Coastal Plains into the TX Hill Country... A composite cold front/outflow boundary will likely extend from west-central LA to the Edwards Plateau early Tuesday morning. A convectively generated vorticity maximum may also be over central TX, although uncertainty regarding the strength and location of this vorticity maximum is high at this forecast range. The presence of a vorticity maximum potentially in close proximity to the weak surface boundary complicates the overall forecast, since both features could provide the lift needed for convective initiation. However, mesoscale nature of these features as well as their interactions limits predictability. At this point, thunderstorms appear possible and conditions suggest some would be strong/severe. Higher severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks as predictability increases. ...Southeast NM and Far West TX... Strong heating and deep boundary-layer mixing is anticipated over the region on Tuesday. However, moderate/strong low-level moisture advection will help offset low-level mixing, allowing for dewpoints to remain in the low to mid 60s. Resulting combination of steep mid-level lapse rates and low-level moisture will support late afternoon airmass destabilization and strong buoyancy. A low-amplitude shortwave trough will be approaching the region, with lift ahead of this wave combining with low-level convergence along the dryline to support thunderstorm initiation. Environmental conditions support supercells capable of large to very large hail initially, with some wind gust threat as well. Overall coverage is uncertain, which merits keeping low severe probabilities for this outlook. ...Lee of the MT Rockies... Upper ridging is forecast to dampen throughout the period, with the mid to upper-level flow becoming more westerly. A weak vorticity maximum will move through this westerly flow, augmenting orographic ascent and helping to aid thunderstorm development across the high terrain. Moderate speed shear should result in a couple lower-end/high-based supercells as storms develop off the higher terrain of western to south-central MT. Weak buoyancy suggests that marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts should be the main threats. ..Mosier.. 06/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EAST COAST...OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL MT...AND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHERN LA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday into Tuesday evening along parts of the East Coast, from southeast New Mexico to south Louisiana, and along the lee of the Montana Rockies. ...East Coast... Upper troughing is expected to extend from central Ontario through the TN Valley early Tuesday morning, with moderate mid-level southwesterly flow throughout its eastern periphery from the central Appalachians through the Northeast. Expectation is for this troughing to progress eastward during the day as an embedded shortwave trough moves through the Upper OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes. An associated surface low will move just ahead of this shortwave, with an attendant cold front moving through the Mid-Atlantic. Severe potential across the region should be confined to the late morning and afternoon period ahead of the weakening cold front. The strongest shear will be displaced north of the higher buoyancy, somewhat limiting the overall severe potential. Even so, there should still be enough overlap for isolated severe storms, particularly across southeast VA and eastern NC. Isolated damaging wind gusts are the primary risk. ...Lower MS Valley across the TX Coastal Plains into the TX Hill Country... A composite cold front/outflow boundary will likely extend from west-central LA to the Edwards Plateau early Tuesday morning. A convectively generated vorticity maximum may also be over central TX, although uncertainty regarding the strength and location of this vorticity maximum is high at this forecast range. The presence of a vorticity maximum potentially in close proximity to the weak surface boundary complicates the overall forecast, since both features could provide the lift needed for convective initiation. However, mesoscale nature of these features as well as their interactions limits predictability. At this point, thunderstorms appear possible and conditions suggest some would be strong/severe. Higher severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks as predictability increases. ...Southeast NM and Far West TX... Strong heating and deep boundary-layer mixing is anticipated over the region on Tuesday. However, moderate/strong low-level moisture advection will help offset low-level mixing, allowing for dewpoints to remain in the low to mid 60s. Resulting combination of steep mid-level lapse rates and low-level moisture will support late afternoon airmass destabilization and strong buoyancy. A low-amplitude shortwave trough will be approaching the region, with lift ahead of this wave combining with low-level convergence along the dryline to support thunderstorm initiation. Environmental conditions support supercells capable of large to very large hail initially, with some wind gust threat as well. Overall coverage is uncertain, which merits keeping low severe probabilities for this outlook. ...Lee of the MT Rockies... Upper ridging is forecast to dampen throughout the period, with the mid to upper-level flow becoming more westerly. A weak vorticity maximum will move through this westerly flow, augmenting orographic ascent and helping to aid thunderstorm development across the high terrain. Moderate speed shear should result in a couple lower-end/high-based supercells as storms develop off the higher terrain of western to south-central MT. Weak buoyancy suggests that marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts should be the main threats. ..Mosier.. 06/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EAST COAST...OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL MT...AND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHERN LA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday into Tuesday evening along parts of the East Coast, from southeast New Mexico to south Louisiana, and along the lee of the Montana Rockies. ...East Coast... Upper troughing is expected to extend from central Ontario through the TN Valley early Tuesday morning, with moderate mid-level southwesterly flow throughout its eastern periphery from the central Appalachians through the Northeast. Expectation is for this troughing to progress eastward during the day as an embedded shortwave trough moves through the Upper OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes. An associated surface low will move just ahead of this shortwave, with an attendant cold front moving through the Mid-Atlantic. Severe potential across the region should be confined to the late morning and afternoon period ahead of the weakening cold front. The strongest shear will be displaced north of the higher buoyancy, somewhat limiting the overall severe potential. Even so, there should still be enough overlap for isolated severe storms, particularly across southeast VA and eastern NC. Isolated damaging wind gusts are the primary risk. ...Lower MS Valley across the TX Coastal Plains into the TX Hill Country... A composite cold front/outflow boundary will likely extend from west-central LA to the Edwards Plateau early Tuesday morning. A convectively generated vorticity maximum may also be over central TX, although uncertainty regarding the strength and location of this vorticity maximum is high at this forecast range. The presence of a vorticity maximum potentially in close proximity to the weak surface boundary complicates the overall forecast, since both features could provide the lift needed for convective initiation. However, mesoscale nature of these features as well as their interactions limits predictability. At this point, thunderstorms appear possible and conditions suggest some would be strong/severe. Higher severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks as predictability increases. ...Southeast NM and Far West TX... Strong heating and deep boundary-layer mixing is anticipated over the region on Tuesday. However, moderate/strong low-level moisture advection will help offset low-level mixing, allowing for dewpoints to remain in the low to mid 60s. Resulting combination of steep mid-level lapse rates and low-level moisture will support late afternoon airmass destabilization and strong buoyancy. A low-amplitude shortwave trough will be approaching the region, with lift ahead of this wave combining with low-level convergence along the dryline to support thunderstorm initiation. Environmental conditions support supercells capable of large to very large hail initially, with some wind gust threat as well. Overall coverage is uncertain, which merits keeping low severe probabilities for this outlook. ...Lee of the MT Rockies... Upper ridging is forecast to dampen throughout the period, with the mid to upper-level flow becoming more westerly. A weak vorticity maximum will move through this westerly flow, augmenting orographic ascent and helping to aid thunderstorm development across the high terrain. Moderate speed shear should result in a couple lower-end/high-based supercells as storms develop off the higher terrain of western to south-central MT. Weak buoyancy suggests that marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts should be the main threats. ..Mosier.. 06/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EAST COAST...OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL MT...AND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHERN LA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday into Tuesday evening along parts of the East Coast, from southeast New Mexico to south Louisiana, and along the lee of the Montana Rockies. ...East Coast... Upper troughing is expected to extend from central Ontario through the TN Valley early Tuesday morning, with moderate mid-level southwesterly flow throughout its eastern periphery from the central Appalachians through the Northeast. Expectation is for this troughing to progress eastward during the day as an embedded shortwave trough moves through the Upper OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes. An associated surface low will move just ahead of this shortwave, with an attendant cold front moving through the Mid-Atlantic. Severe potential across the region should be confined to the late morning and afternoon period ahead of the weakening cold front. The strongest shear will be displaced north of the higher buoyancy, somewhat limiting the overall severe potential. Even so, there should still be enough overlap for isolated severe storms, particularly across southeast VA and eastern NC. Isolated damaging wind gusts are the primary risk. ...Lower MS Valley across the TX Coastal Plains into the TX Hill Country... A composite cold front/outflow boundary will likely extend from west-central LA to the Edwards Plateau early Tuesday morning. A convectively generated vorticity maximum may also be over central TX, although uncertainty regarding the strength and location of this vorticity maximum is high at this forecast range. The presence of a vorticity maximum potentially in close proximity to the weak surface boundary complicates the overall forecast, since both features could provide the lift needed for convective initiation. However, mesoscale nature of these features as well as their interactions limits predictability. At this point, thunderstorms appear possible and conditions suggest some would be strong/severe. Higher severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks as predictability increases. ...Southeast NM and Far West TX... Strong heating and deep boundary-layer mixing is anticipated over the region on Tuesday. However, moderate/strong low-level moisture advection will help offset low-level mixing, allowing for dewpoints to remain in the low to mid 60s. Resulting combination of steep mid-level lapse rates and low-level moisture will support late afternoon airmass destabilization and strong buoyancy. A low-amplitude shortwave trough will be approaching the region, with lift ahead of this wave combining with low-level convergence along the dryline to support thunderstorm initiation. Environmental conditions support supercells capable of large to very large hail initially, with some wind gust threat as well. Overall coverage is uncertain, which merits keeping low severe probabilities for this outlook. ...Lee of the MT Rockies... Upper ridging is forecast to dampen throughout the period, with the mid to upper-level flow becoming more westerly. A weak vorticity maximum will move through this westerly flow, augmenting orographic ascent and helping to aid thunderstorm development across the high terrain. Moderate speed shear should result in a couple lower-end/high-based supercells as storms develop off the higher terrain of western to south-central MT. Weak buoyancy suggests that marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts should be the main threats. ..Mosier.. 06/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EAST COAST...OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL MT...AND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHERN LA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday into Tuesday evening along parts of the East Coast, from southeast New Mexico to south Louisiana, and along the lee of the Montana Rockies. ...East Coast... Upper troughing is expected to extend from central Ontario through the TN Valley early Tuesday morning, with moderate mid-level southwesterly flow throughout its eastern periphery from the central Appalachians through the Northeast. Expectation is for this troughing to progress eastward during the day as an embedded shortwave trough moves through the Upper OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes. An associated surface low will move just ahead of this shortwave, with an attendant cold front moving through the Mid-Atlantic. Severe potential across the region should be confined to the late morning and afternoon period ahead of the weakening cold front. The strongest shear will be displaced north of the higher buoyancy, somewhat limiting the overall severe potential. Even so, there should still be enough overlap for isolated severe storms, particularly across southeast VA and eastern NC. Isolated damaging wind gusts are the primary risk. ...Lower MS Valley across the TX Coastal Plains into the TX Hill Country... A composite cold front/outflow boundary will likely extend from west-central LA to the Edwards Plateau early Tuesday morning. A convectively generated vorticity maximum may also be over central TX, although uncertainty regarding the strength and location of this vorticity maximum is high at this forecast range. The presence of a vorticity maximum potentially in close proximity to the weak surface boundary complicates the overall forecast, since both features could provide the lift needed for convective initiation. However, mesoscale nature of these features as well as their interactions limits predictability. At this point, thunderstorms appear possible and conditions suggest some would be strong/severe. Higher severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks as predictability increases. ...Southeast NM and Far West TX... Strong heating and deep boundary-layer mixing is anticipated over the region on Tuesday. However, moderate/strong low-level moisture advection will help offset low-level mixing, allowing for dewpoints to remain in the low to mid 60s. Resulting combination of steep mid-level lapse rates and low-level moisture will support late afternoon airmass destabilization and strong buoyancy. A low-amplitude shortwave trough will be approaching the region, with lift ahead of this wave combining with low-level convergence along the dryline to support thunderstorm initiation. Environmental conditions support supercells capable of large to very large hail initially, with some wind gust threat as well. Overall coverage is uncertain, which merits keeping low severe probabilities for this outlook. ...Lee of the MT Rockies... Upper ridging is forecast to dampen throughout the period, with the mid to upper-level flow becoming more westerly. A weak vorticity maximum will move through this westerly flow, augmenting orographic ascent and helping to aid thunderstorm development across the high terrain. Moderate speed shear should result in a couple lower-end/high-based supercells as storms develop off the higher terrain of western to south-central MT. Weak buoyancy suggests that marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts should be the main threats. ..Mosier.. 06/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EAST COAST...OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL MT...AND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHERN LA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday into Tuesday evening along parts of the East Coast, from southeast New Mexico to south Louisiana, and along the lee of the Montana Rockies. ...East Coast... Upper troughing is expected to extend from central Ontario through the TN Valley early Tuesday morning, with moderate mid-level southwesterly flow throughout its eastern periphery from the central Appalachians through the Northeast. Expectation is for this troughing to progress eastward during the day as an embedded shortwave trough moves through the Upper OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes. An associated surface low will move just ahead of this shortwave, with an attendant cold front moving through the Mid-Atlantic. Severe potential across the region should be confined to the late morning and afternoon period ahead of the weakening cold front. The strongest shear will be displaced north of the higher buoyancy, somewhat limiting the overall severe potential. Even so, there should still be enough overlap for isolated severe storms, particularly across southeast VA and eastern NC. Isolated damaging wind gusts are the primary risk. ...Lower MS Valley across the TX Coastal Plains into the TX Hill Country... A composite cold front/outflow boundary will likely extend from west-central LA to the Edwards Plateau early Tuesday morning. A convectively generated vorticity maximum may also be over central TX, although uncertainty regarding the strength and location of this vorticity maximum is high at this forecast range. The presence of a vorticity maximum potentially in close proximity to the weak surface boundary complicates the overall forecast, since both features could provide the lift needed for convective initiation. However, mesoscale nature of these features as well as their interactions limits predictability. At this point, thunderstorms appear possible and conditions suggest some would be strong/severe. Higher severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks as predictability increases. ...Southeast NM and Far West TX... Strong heating and deep boundary-layer mixing is anticipated over the region on Tuesday. However, moderate/strong low-level moisture advection will help offset low-level mixing, allowing for dewpoints to remain in the low to mid 60s. Resulting combination of steep mid-level lapse rates and low-level moisture will support late afternoon airmass destabilization and strong buoyancy. A low-amplitude shortwave trough will be approaching the region, with lift ahead of this wave combining with low-level convergence along the dryline to support thunderstorm initiation. Environmental conditions support supercells capable of large to very large hail initially, with some wind gust threat as well. Overall coverage is uncertain, which merits keeping low severe probabilities for this outlook. ...Lee of the MT Rockies... Upper ridging is forecast to dampen throughout the period, with the mid to upper-level flow becoming more westerly. A weak vorticity maximum will move through this westerly flow, augmenting orographic ascent and helping to aid thunderstorm development across the high terrain. Moderate speed shear should result in a couple lower-end/high-based supercells as storms develop off the higher terrain of western to south-central MT. Weak buoyancy suggests that marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts should be the main threats. ..Mosier.. 06/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EAST COAST...OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL MT...AND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHERN LA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday into Tuesday evening along parts of the East Coast, from southeast New Mexico to south Louisiana, and along the lee of the Montana Rockies. ...East Coast... Upper troughing is expected to extend from central Ontario through the TN Valley early Tuesday morning, with moderate mid-level southwesterly flow throughout its eastern periphery from the central Appalachians through the Northeast. Expectation is for this troughing to progress eastward during the day as an embedded shortwave trough moves through the Upper OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes. An associated surface low will move just ahead of this shortwave, with an attendant cold front moving through the Mid-Atlantic. Severe potential across the region should be confined to the late morning and afternoon period ahead of the weakening cold front. The strongest shear will be displaced north of the higher buoyancy, somewhat limiting the overall severe potential. Even so, there should still be enough overlap for isolated severe storms, particularly across southeast VA and eastern NC. Isolated damaging wind gusts are the primary risk. ...Lower MS Valley across the TX Coastal Plains into the TX Hill Country... A composite cold front/outflow boundary will likely extend from west-central LA to the Edwards Plateau early Tuesday morning. A convectively generated vorticity maximum may also be over central TX, although uncertainty regarding the strength and location of this vorticity maximum is high at this forecast range. The presence of a vorticity maximum potentially in close proximity to the weak surface boundary complicates the overall forecast, since both features could provide the lift needed for convective initiation. However, mesoscale nature of these features as well as their interactions limits predictability. At this point, thunderstorms appear possible and conditions suggest some would be strong/severe. Higher severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks as predictability increases. ...Southeast NM and Far West TX... Strong heating and deep boundary-layer mixing is anticipated over the region on Tuesday. However, moderate/strong low-level moisture advection will help offset low-level mixing, allowing for dewpoints to remain in the low to mid 60s. Resulting combination of steep mid-level lapse rates and low-level moisture will support late afternoon airmass destabilization and strong buoyancy. A low-amplitude shortwave trough will be approaching the region, with lift ahead of this wave combining with low-level convergence along the dryline to support thunderstorm initiation. Environmental conditions support supercells capable of large to very large hail initially, with some wind gust threat as well. Overall coverage is uncertain, which merits keeping low severe probabilities for this outlook. ...Lee of the MT Rockies... Upper ridging is forecast to dampen throughout the period, with the mid to upper-level flow becoming more westerly. A weak vorticity maximum will move through this westerly flow, augmenting orographic ascent and helping to aid thunderstorm development across the high terrain. Moderate speed shear should result in a couple lower-end/high-based supercells as storms develop off the higher terrain of western to south-central MT. Weak buoyancy suggests that marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts should be the main threats. ..Mosier.. 06/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EAST COAST...OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL MT...AND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHERN LA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday into Tuesday evening along parts of the East Coast, from southeast New Mexico to south Louisiana, and along the lee of the Montana Rockies. ...East Coast... Upper troughing is expected to extend from central Ontario through the TN Valley early Tuesday morning, with moderate mid-level southwesterly flow throughout its eastern periphery from the central Appalachians through the Northeast. Expectation is for this troughing to progress eastward during the day as an embedded shortwave trough moves through the Upper OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes. An associated surface low will move just ahead of this shortwave, with an attendant cold front moving through the Mid-Atlantic. Severe potential across the region should be confined to the late morning and afternoon period ahead of the weakening cold front. The strongest shear will be displaced north of the higher buoyancy, somewhat limiting the overall severe potential. Even so, there should still be enough overlap for isolated severe storms, particularly across southeast VA and eastern NC. Isolated damaging wind gusts are the primary risk. ...Lower MS Valley across the TX Coastal Plains into the TX Hill Country... A composite cold front/outflow boundary will likely extend from west-central LA to the Edwards Plateau early Tuesday morning. A convectively generated vorticity maximum may also be over central TX, although uncertainty regarding the strength and location of this vorticity maximum is high at this forecast range. The presence of a vorticity maximum potentially in close proximity to the weak surface boundary complicates the overall forecast, since both features could provide the lift needed for convective initiation. However, mesoscale nature of these features as well as their interactions limits predictability. At this point, thunderstorms appear possible and conditions suggest some would be strong/severe. Higher severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks as predictability increases. ...Southeast NM and Far West TX... Strong heating and deep boundary-layer mixing is anticipated over the region on Tuesday. However, moderate/strong low-level moisture advection will help offset low-level mixing, allowing for dewpoints to remain in the low to mid 60s. Resulting combination of steep mid-level lapse rates and low-level moisture will support late afternoon airmass destabilization and strong buoyancy. A low-amplitude shortwave trough will be approaching the region, with lift ahead of this wave combining with low-level convergence along the dryline to support thunderstorm initiation. Environmental conditions support supercells capable of large to very large hail initially, with some wind gust threat as well. Overall coverage is uncertain, which merits keeping low severe probabilities for this outlook. ...Lee of the MT Rockies... Upper ridging is forecast to dampen throughout the period, with the mid to upper-level flow becoming more westerly. A weak vorticity maximum will move through this westerly flow, augmenting orographic ascent and helping to aid thunderstorm development across the high terrain. Moderate speed shear should result in a couple lower-end/high-based supercells as storms develop off the higher terrain of western to south-central MT. Weak buoyancy suggests that marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts should be the main threats. ..Mosier.. 06/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EAST COAST...OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL MT...AND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHERN LA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday into Tuesday evening along parts of the East Coast, from southeast New Mexico to south Louisiana, and along the lee of the Montana Rockies. ...East Coast... Upper troughing is expected to extend from central Ontario through the TN Valley early Tuesday morning, with moderate mid-level southwesterly flow throughout its eastern periphery from the central Appalachians through the Northeast. Expectation is for this troughing to progress eastward during the day as an embedded shortwave trough moves through the Upper OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes. An associated surface low will move just ahead of this shortwave, with an attendant cold front moving through the Mid-Atlantic. Severe potential across the region should be confined to the late morning and afternoon period ahead of the weakening cold front. The strongest shear will be displaced north of the higher buoyancy, somewhat limiting the overall severe potential. Even so, there should still be enough overlap for isolated severe storms, particularly across southeast VA and eastern NC. Isolated damaging wind gusts are the primary risk. ...Lower MS Valley across the TX Coastal Plains into the TX Hill Country... A composite cold front/outflow boundary will likely extend from west-central LA to the Edwards Plateau early Tuesday morning. A convectively generated vorticity maximum may also be over central TX, although uncertainty regarding the strength and location of this vorticity maximum is high at this forecast range. The presence of a vorticity maximum potentially in close proximity to the weak surface boundary complicates the overall forecast, since both features could provide the lift needed for convective initiation. However, mesoscale nature of these features as well as their interactions limits predictability. At this point, thunderstorms appear possible and conditions suggest some would be strong/severe. Higher severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks as predictability increases. ...Southeast NM and Far West TX... Strong heating and deep boundary-layer mixing is anticipated over the region on Tuesday. However, moderate/strong low-level moisture advection will help offset low-level mixing, allowing for dewpoints to remain in the low to mid 60s. Resulting combination of steep mid-level lapse rates and low-level moisture will support late afternoon airmass destabilization and strong buoyancy. A low-amplitude shortwave trough will be approaching the region, with lift ahead of this wave combining with low-level convergence along the dryline to support thunderstorm initiation. Environmental conditions support supercells capable of large to very large hail initially, with some wind gust threat as well. Overall coverage is uncertain, which merits keeping low severe probabilities for this outlook. ...Lee of the MT Rockies... Upper ridging is forecast to dampen throughout the period, with the mid to upper-level flow becoming more westerly. A weak vorticity maximum will move through this westerly flow, augmenting orographic ascent and helping to aid thunderstorm development across the high terrain. Moderate speed shear should result in a couple lower-end/high-based supercells as storms develop off the higher terrain of western to south-central MT. Weak buoyancy suggests that marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts should be the main threats. ..Mosier.. 06/08/2025 Read more