Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing numerous to widespread damaging winds, scattered large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central/southern Plains. The greatest threat for destructive gusts up to 70-100 mph is forecast across portions of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...KS/OK... Overnight and morning thunderstorm activity has significantly changed the overall forecast for severe storms across the central Plains for today. A severe MCS overspread parts of southeast KS and northeast OK a few hours ago, pushing an outflow boundary southward into central OK. Strong heating is occurring to the north of this boundary, where rapid destabilization is expected this afternoon across northern OK/southern KS. A consensus of 12z model guidance shows this to be the corridor of rapid and intense thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings show substantial low-level shear, steep lapse rates, and sufficient winds aloft for supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Relatively warm temperatures in the 850-700mb layer are a negative factor for a greater tornado concern. Through the evening, congealing outflows will likely result in a larger MCS posing a risk of widespread damaging wind gusts into northeast OK and perhaps parts of northwest AR/southwest MO. ...Eastern CO/Southeast WY... Overnight storms also impacted the forecast for this region today. Easterly low-level winds (enhanced by outflow) have transported moisture westward into the foothills, where rapid thunderstorm development is expected by early afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and seasonably cool mid-level temperatures, coupled with sufficiently strong westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of very large hail in the strongest storms. A tornado or two is also possible. It is unclear how far east this activity can make it into the adjacent Plains, where persistent low-clouds and more stable conditions will likely prevail. Refer to MCD #1330 for further details. ..Hart/Wendt.. 06/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing numerous to widespread damaging winds, scattered large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central/southern Plains. The greatest threat for destructive gusts up to 70-100 mph is forecast across portions of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...KS/OK... Overnight and morning thunderstorm activity has significantly changed the overall forecast for severe storms across the central Plains for today. A severe MCS overspread parts of southeast KS and northeast OK a few hours ago, pushing an outflow boundary southward into central OK. Strong heating is occurring to the north of this boundary, where rapid destabilization is expected this afternoon across northern OK/southern KS. A consensus of 12z model guidance shows this to be the corridor of rapid and intense thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings show substantial low-level shear, steep lapse rates, and sufficient winds aloft for supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Relatively warm temperatures in the 850-700mb layer are a negative factor for a greater tornado concern. Through the evening, congealing outflows will likely result in a larger MCS posing a risk of widespread damaging wind gusts into northeast OK and perhaps parts of northwest AR/southwest MO. ...Eastern CO/Southeast WY... Overnight storms also impacted the forecast for this region today. Easterly low-level winds (enhanced by outflow) have transported moisture westward into the foothills, where rapid thunderstorm development is expected by early afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and seasonably cool mid-level temperatures, coupled with sufficiently strong westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of very large hail in the strongest storms. A tornado or two is also possible. It is unclear how far east this activity can make it into the adjacent Plains, where persistent low-clouds and more stable conditions will likely prevail. Refer to MCD #1330 for further details. ..Hart/Wendt.. 06/17/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Jun 17 15:02:02 UTC 2025.

WW 0426 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 426 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S TUL TO 25 NE TUL. WW 426 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 171500Z. ..GRAMS..06/17/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 426 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC101-131-145-171500- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MUSKOGEE ROGERS WAGONER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0426 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 426 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S TUL TO 25 NE TUL. WW 426 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 171500Z. ..GRAMS..06/17/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 426 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC101-131-145-171500- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MUSKOGEE ROGERS WAGONER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0426 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 426 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S TUL TO 25 NE TUL. WW 426 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 171500Z. ..GRAMS..06/17/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 426 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC101-131-145-171500- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MUSKOGEE ROGERS WAGONER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0426 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 426 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S TUL TO 25 NE TUL. WW 426 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 171500Z. ..GRAMS..06/17/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 426 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC101-131-145-171500- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MUSKOGEE ROGERS WAGONER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0426 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 426 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S TUL TO 25 NE TUL. WW 426 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 171500Z. ..GRAMS..06/17/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 426 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC101-131-145-171500- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MUSKOGEE ROGERS WAGONER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1329 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 426... FOR PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1329 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Areas affected...parts of east central Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 426... Valid 171252Z - 171445Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 426 continues. SUMMARY...The stronger lingering storms will continue to spread south-southeastward toward the McAlester vicinity through 9-10 AM CDT, but intensities are expected to weaken further with diminishing potential for strong to severe surface gusts. A new severe weather watch is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...The organized southeastward propagating convective system has undergone substantive weakening over the past few hours, with stronger convection shrinking in areal extent and surface gusts diminishing in peak intensity. A notable (2-4+ mb 2-hourly surface pressure rises evident in 12Z surface observations) small cold pool is providing support for this convection as it propagates southeast of the Stillwater OK vicinity. Based on its 30-35 kt forward propagation, it could approach the McAlester vicinity by 15Z. However, based on current trends, including weakening forcing for ascent in the presence of considerable mid-level inhibition, it seems probable that convection will continue to wane, with further weakening of the surface cold pool and diminishing surface gusts. ..Kerr.. 06/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 36249634 35999568 34869559 35009632 35839658 36249634 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 426 SEVERE TSTM OK 170920Z - 171500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 426 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 420 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North-Central and Northeast Oklahoma * Effective this Tuesday morning from 420 AM until 1000 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible SUMMARY...A small but intense bowing cluster of thunderstorms will move quickly southeastward this morning while posing a threat for mainly severe/damaging winds. Peak gusts may reach up to 70-80 mph before the cluster eventually weakens with southward extent into Oklahoma. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles west northwest of Enid OK to 25 miles northeast of Tulsa OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 425... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 31040. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0427 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 427 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N LIC TO 15 ESE AKO. WW 427 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 171400Z. ..GRAMS..06/17/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 427 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC073-121-171400- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LINCOLN WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0427 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 427 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N LIC TO 15 ESE AKO. WW 427 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 171400Z. ..GRAMS..06/17/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 427 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC073-121-171400- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LINCOLN WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0427 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 427 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N LIC TO 15 ESE AKO. WW 427 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 171400Z. ..GRAMS..06/17/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 427 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC073-121-171400- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LINCOLN WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0427 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 427 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N LIC TO 15 ESE AKO. WW 427 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 171400Z. ..GRAMS..06/17/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 427 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC073-121-171400- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LINCOLN WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0944 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing numerous to widespread damaging winds, scattered large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a few tornadoes are expected today across parts of the central/southern Plains and lower/mid Missouri Valley. The greatest threat for destructive gusts up to 70-100 mph is forecast across portions of Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...Central/Southern Plains into the Lower/Mid Missouri Valley... A small but intense bow echo that moved south-southeastward across parts of KS overnight should continue to weaken this morning across northeast OK. But in the short term, an isolated threat for severe winds may continue until the cluster fully dissipates. Across eastern CO, occasional severe hail may occur with marginal supercells for another hour or two before additional weakening occurs. The net effect of this overnight/early morning convection on the severe potential across the southern/central Plains remains uncertain. But, a trailing outflow boundary from the decaying MCS now in northeast OK may prove instrumental in focusing significant severe potential this afternoon/evening. A subtle mid-level shortwave trough over the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies will continue to move eastward over the adjacent central/southern High Plains by this evening. At the surface, further deepening of a low over southeast CO is anticipated through the day, with this low forecast to develop into the TX Panhandle by early evening. A lee trough/dryline will extend southward from this low, while a convectively reinforced boundary should extend somewhere along/near the KS/OK border by mid to late afternoon, and potentially northeastward into eastern KS as well. The airmass across east-central CO into western KS was generally not convectively overturned yesterday into early this morning, with the 12Z sounding from DDC still showing around 2800 J/kg of MUCAPE available. Convective development and evolution remain uncertain later today. Still, it appears likely that initially high-based thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain of central CO this afternoon, and then spread east-southeastward over the adjacent High Plains through the evening. Much of eastern CO and vicinity will be in a post-frontal regime. But steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient low-level moisture should support the development of moderate instability. Strong deep-layer shear should foster supercells initially, with associated threat for mainly large to isolated very large hail. Some upscale growth may eventually occur with this activity as it spreads into western KS this evening, along with an increased threat for severe/damaging winds. Farther east into central/eastern KS and MO, severe potential remains highly uncertain, with a myriad of possible solutions offered by various high-resolution guidance. In general, current expectations are for an increasing threat for numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds across parts of KS into northern OK, with one or more intense clusters potentially developing in tandem with a strengthening low-level jet this evening across the southern/central Plains. Significant severe gusts of 75+ mph remain possible, along with a few tornadoes with any sustained supercells along/near the boundary this evening as low-level shear strengthens. Overall, severe probabilities have been expanded southward some across the OK/TX Panhandles and northern/central OK, in an attempt to account for where the outflow boundary/front may be present this afternoon/evening. Additional adjustments to risk areas are likely with later outlook updates pending additional observational and model data. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Tennessee Valley/Southeast... Diurnal heating of a seasonally moist low-level airmass will occur today across the central Appalachians/southern Mid-Atlantic within a modestly sheared environment. Thunderstorms are expected to develop over higher terrain by early afternoon, and subsequently spread eastward through the evening. Some of this activity may form into loosely organized clusters. Occasional strong/damaging winds should be the main severe threat with this activity, particularly across parts of VA/MD where stronger instability is forecast. Farther south into the TN Valley/Southeast, a weak mid/upper-level trough with multiple embedded perturbations should advance slowly eastward through the day. Similar to yesterday, daytime heating of a moist airmass should foster moderate to locally strong instability this afternoon. Around 25-30 kt of mid-level southwesterly flow and similar values of deep-layer shear should support some loose convective organization with multiple thunderstorm clusters that can develop. Have expanded the Marginal Risk for isolated damaging winds southwestward to account for this potential. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 06/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0944 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing numerous to widespread damaging winds, scattered large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a few tornadoes are expected today across parts of the central/southern Plains and lower/mid Missouri Valley. The greatest threat for destructive gusts up to 70-100 mph is forecast across portions of Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...Central/Southern Plains into the Lower/Mid Missouri Valley... A small but intense bow echo that moved south-southeastward across parts of KS overnight should continue to weaken this morning across northeast OK. But in the short term, an isolated threat for severe winds may continue until the cluster fully dissipates. Across eastern CO, occasional severe hail may occur with marginal supercells for another hour or two before additional weakening occurs. The net effect of this overnight/early morning convection on the severe potential across the southern/central Plains remains uncertain. But, a trailing outflow boundary from the decaying MCS now in northeast OK may prove instrumental in focusing significant severe potential this afternoon/evening. A subtle mid-level shortwave trough over the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies will continue to move eastward over the adjacent central/southern High Plains by this evening. At the surface, further deepening of a low over southeast CO is anticipated through the day, with this low forecast to develop into the TX Panhandle by early evening. A lee trough/dryline will extend southward from this low, while a convectively reinforced boundary should extend somewhere along/near the KS/OK border by mid to late afternoon, and potentially northeastward into eastern KS as well. The airmass across east-central CO into western KS was generally not convectively overturned yesterday into early this morning, with the 12Z sounding from DDC still showing around 2800 J/kg of MUCAPE available. Convective development and evolution remain uncertain later today. Still, it appears likely that initially high-based thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain of central CO this afternoon, and then spread east-southeastward over the adjacent High Plains through the evening. Much of eastern CO and vicinity will be in a post-frontal regime. But steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient low-level moisture should support the development of moderate instability. Strong deep-layer shear should foster supercells initially, with associated threat for mainly large to isolated very large hail. Some upscale growth may eventually occur with this activity as it spreads into western KS this evening, along with an increased threat for severe/damaging winds. Farther east into central/eastern KS and MO, severe potential remains highly uncertain, with a myriad of possible solutions offered by various high-resolution guidance. In general, current expectations are for an increasing threat for numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds across parts of KS into northern OK, with one or more intense clusters potentially developing in tandem with a strengthening low-level jet this evening across the southern/central Plains. Significant severe gusts of 75+ mph remain possible, along with a few tornadoes with any sustained supercells along/near the boundary this evening as low-level shear strengthens. Overall, severe probabilities have been expanded southward some across the OK/TX Panhandles and northern/central OK, in an attempt to account for where the outflow boundary/front may be present this afternoon/evening. Additional adjustments to risk areas are likely with later outlook updates pending additional observational and model data. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Tennessee Valley/Southeast... Diurnal heating of a seasonally moist low-level airmass will occur today across the central Appalachians/southern Mid-Atlantic within a modestly sheared environment. Thunderstorms are expected to develop over higher terrain by early afternoon, and subsequently spread eastward through the evening. Some of this activity may form into loosely organized clusters. Occasional strong/damaging winds should be the main severe threat with this activity, particularly across parts of VA/MD where stronger instability is forecast. Farther south into the TN Valley/Southeast, a weak mid/upper-level trough with multiple embedded perturbations should advance slowly eastward through the day. Similar to yesterday, daytime heating of a moist airmass should foster moderate to locally strong instability this afternoon. Around 25-30 kt of mid-level southwesterly flow and similar values of deep-layer shear should support some loose convective organization with multiple thunderstorm clusters that can develop. Have expanded the Marginal Risk for isolated damaging winds southwestward to account for this potential. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 06/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0944 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing numerous to widespread damaging winds, scattered large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a few tornadoes are expected today across parts of the central/southern Plains and lower/mid Missouri Valley. The greatest threat for destructive gusts up to 70-100 mph is forecast across portions of Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...Central/Southern Plains into the Lower/Mid Missouri Valley... A small but intense bow echo that moved south-southeastward across parts of KS overnight should continue to weaken this morning across northeast OK. But in the short term, an isolated threat for severe winds may continue until the cluster fully dissipates. Across eastern CO, occasional severe hail may occur with marginal supercells for another hour or two before additional weakening occurs. The net effect of this overnight/early morning convection on the severe potential across the southern/central Plains remains uncertain. But, a trailing outflow boundary from the decaying MCS now in northeast OK may prove instrumental in focusing significant severe potential this afternoon/evening. A subtle mid-level shortwave trough over the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies will continue to move eastward over the adjacent central/southern High Plains by this evening. At the surface, further deepening of a low over southeast CO is anticipated through the day, with this low forecast to develop into the TX Panhandle by early evening. A lee trough/dryline will extend southward from this low, while a convectively reinforced boundary should extend somewhere along/near the KS/OK border by mid to late afternoon, and potentially northeastward into eastern KS as well. The airmass across east-central CO into western KS was generally not convectively overturned yesterday into early this morning, with the 12Z sounding from DDC still showing around 2800 J/kg of MUCAPE available. Convective development and evolution remain uncertain later today. Still, it appears likely that initially high-based thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain of central CO this afternoon, and then spread east-southeastward over the adjacent High Plains through the evening. Much of eastern CO and vicinity will be in a post-frontal regime. But steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient low-level moisture should support the development of moderate instability. Strong deep-layer shear should foster supercells initially, with associated threat for mainly large to isolated very large hail. Some upscale growth may eventually occur with this activity as it spreads into western KS this evening, along with an increased threat for severe/damaging winds. Farther east into central/eastern KS and MO, severe potential remains highly uncertain, with a myriad of possible solutions offered by various high-resolution guidance. In general, current expectations are for an increasing threat for numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds across parts of KS into northern OK, with one or more intense clusters potentially developing in tandem with a strengthening low-level jet this evening across the southern/central Plains. Significant severe gusts of 75+ mph remain possible, along with a few tornadoes with any sustained supercells along/near the boundary this evening as low-level shear strengthens. Overall, severe probabilities have been expanded southward some across the OK/TX Panhandles and northern/central OK, in an attempt to account for where the outflow boundary/front may be present this afternoon/evening. Additional adjustments to risk areas are likely with later outlook updates pending additional observational and model data. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Tennessee Valley/Southeast... Diurnal heating of a seasonally moist low-level airmass will occur today across the central Appalachians/southern Mid-Atlantic within a modestly sheared environment. Thunderstorms are expected to develop over higher terrain by early afternoon, and subsequently spread eastward through the evening. Some of this activity may form into loosely organized clusters. Occasional strong/damaging winds should be the main severe threat with this activity, particularly across parts of VA/MD where stronger instability is forecast. Farther south into the TN Valley/Southeast, a weak mid/upper-level trough with multiple embedded perturbations should advance slowly eastward through the day. Similar to yesterday, daytime heating of a moist airmass should foster moderate to locally strong instability this afternoon. Around 25-30 kt of mid-level southwesterly flow and similar values of deep-layer shear should support some loose convective organization with multiple thunderstorm clusters that can develop. Have expanded the Marginal Risk for isolated damaging winds southwestward to account for this potential. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 06/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0944 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing numerous to widespread damaging winds, scattered large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a few tornadoes are expected today across parts of the central/southern Plains and lower/mid Missouri Valley. The greatest threat for destructive gusts up to 70-100 mph is forecast across portions of Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...Central/Southern Plains into the Lower/Mid Missouri Valley... A small but intense bow echo that moved south-southeastward across parts of KS overnight should continue to weaken this morning across northeast OK. But in the short term, an isolated threat for severe winds may continue until the cluster fully dissipates. Across eastern CO, occasional severe hail may occur with marginal supercells for another hour or two before additional weakening occurs. The net effect of this overnight/early morning convection on the severe potential across the southern/central Plains remains uncertain. But, a trailing outflow boundary from the decaying MCS now in northeast OK may prove instrumental in focusing significant severe potential this afternoon/evening. A subtle mid-level shortwave trough over the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies will continue to move eastward over the adjacent central/southern High Plains by this evening. At the surface, further deepening of a low over southeast CO is anticipated through the day, with this low forecast to develop into the TX Panhandle by early evening. A lee trough/dryline will extend southward from this low, while a convectively reinforced boundary should extend somewhere along/near the KS/OK border by mid to late afternoon, and potentially northeastward into eastern KS as well. The airmass across east-central CO into western KS was generally not convectively overturned yesterday into early this morning, with the 12Z sounding from DDC still showing around 2800 J/kg of MUCAPE available. Convective development and evolution remain uncertain later today. Still, it appears likely that initially high-based thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain of central CO this afternoon, and then spread east-southeastward over the adjacent High Plains through the evening. Much of eastern CO and vicinity will be in a post-frontal regime. But steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient low-level moisture should support the development of moderate instability. Strong deep-layer shear should foster supercells initially, with associated threat for mainly large to isolated very large hail. Some upscale growth may eventually occur with this activity as it spreads into western KS this evening, along with an increased threat for severe/damaging winds. Farther east into central/eastern KS and MO, severe potential remains highly uncertain, with a myriad of possible solutions offered by various high-resolution guidance. In general, current expectations are for an increasing threat for numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds across parts of KS into northern OK, with one or more intense clusters potentially developing in tandem with a strengthening low-level jet this evening across the southern/central Plains. Significant severe gusts of 75+ mph remain possible, along with a few tornadoes with any sustained supercells along/near the boundary this evening as low-level shear strengthens. Overall, severe probabilities have been expanded southward some across the OK/TX Panhandles and northern/central OK, in an attempt to account for where the outflow boundary/front may be present this afternoon/evening. Additional adjustments to risk areas are likely with later outlook updates pending additional observational and model data. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Tennessee Valley/Southeast... Diurnal heating of a seasonally moist low-level airmass will occur today across the central Appalachians/southern Mid-Atlantic within a modestly sheared environment. Thunderstorms are expected to develop over higher terrain by early afternoon, and subsequently spread eastward through the evening. Some of this activity may form into loosely organized clusters. Occasional strong/damaging winds should be the main severe threat with this activity, particularly across parts of VA/MD where stronger instability is forecast. Farther south into the TN Valley/Southeast, a weak mid/upper-level trough with multiple embedded perturbations should advance slowly eastward through the day. Similar to yesterday, daytime heating of a moist airmass should foster moderate to locally strong instability this afternoon. Around 25-30 kt of mid-level southwesterly flow and similar values of deep-layer shear should support some loose convective organization with multiple thunderstorm clusters that can develop. Have expanded the Marginal Risk for isolated damaging winds southwestward to account for this potential. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 06/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0944 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing numerous to widespread damaging winds, scattered large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a few tornadoes are expected today across parts of the central/southern Plains and lower/mid Missouri Valley. The greatest threat for destructive gusts up to 70-100 mph is forecast across portions of Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...Central/Southern Plains into the Lower/Mid Missouri Valley... A small but intense bow echo that moved south-southeastward across parts of KS overnight should continue to weaken this morning across northeast OK. But in the short term, an isolated threat for severe winds may continue until the cluster fully dissipates. Across eastern CO, occasional severe hail may occur with marginal supercells for another hour or two before additional weakening occurs. The net effect of this overnight/early morning convection on the severe potential across the southern/central Plains remains uncertain. But, a trailing outflow boundary from the decaying MCS now in northeast OK may prove instrumental in focusing significant severe potential this afternoon/evening. A subtle mid-level shortwave trough over the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies will continue to move eastward over the adjacent central/southern High Plains by this evening. At the surface, further deepening of a low over southeast CO is anticipated through the day, with this low forecast to develop into the TX Panhandle by early evening. A lee trough/dryline will extend southward from this low, while a convectively reinforced boundary should extend somewhere along/near the KS/OK border by mid to late afternoon, and potentially northeastward into eastern KS as well. The airmass across east-central CO into western KS was generally not convectively overturned yesterday into early this morning, with the 12Z sounding from DDC still showing around 2800 J/kg of MUCAPE available. Convective development and evolution remain uncertain later today. Still, it appears likely that initially high-based thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain of central CO this afternoon, and then spread east-southeastward over the adjacent High Plains through the evening. Much of eastern CO and vicinity will be in a post-frontal regime. But steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient low-level moisture should support the development of moderate instability. Strong deep-layer shear should foster supercells initially, with associated threat for mainly large to isolated very large hail. Some upscale growth may eventually occur with this activity as it spreads into western KS this evening, along with an increased threat for severe/damaging winds. Farther east into central/eastern KS and MO, severe potential remains highly uncertain, with a myriad of possible solutions offered by various high-resolution guidance. In general, current expectations are for an increasing threat for numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds across parts of KS into northern OK, with one or more intense clusters potentially developing in tandem with a strengthening low-level jet this evening across the southern/central Plains. Significant severe gusts of 75+ mph remain possible, along with a few tornadoes with any sustained supercells along/near the boundary this evening as low-level shear strengthens. Overall, severe probabilities have been expanded southward some across the OK/TX Panhandles and northern/central OK, in an attempt to account for where the outflow boundary/front may be present this afternoon/evening. Additional adjustments to risk areas are likely with later outlook updates pending additional observational and model data. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Tennessee Valley/Southeast... Diurnal heating of a seasonally moist low-level airmass will occur today across the central Appalachians/southern Mid-Atlantic within a modestly sheared environment. Thunderstorms are expected to develop over higher terrain by early afternoon, and subsequently spread eastward through the evening. Some of this activity may form into loosely organized clusters. Occasional strong/damaging winds should be the main severe threat with this activity, particularly across parts of VA/MD where stronger instability is forecast. Farther south into the TN Valley/Southeast, a weak mid/upper-level trough with multiple embedded perturbations should advance slowly eastward through the day. Similar to yesterday, daytime heating of a moist airmass should foster moderate to locally strong instability this afternoon. Around 25-30 kt of mid-level southwesterly flow and similar values of deep-layer shear should support some loose convective organization with multiple thunderstorm clusters that can develop. Have expanded the Marginal Risk for isolated damaging winds southwestward to account for this potential. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 06/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing numerous to widespread damaging winds, scattered large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a few tornadoes are expected today across parts of the central/southern Plains and lower/mid Missouri Valley. The greatest threat for destructive gusts up to 70-100 mph is forecast across portions of Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...Central/Southern Plains into the Lower/Mid Missouri Valley... A small but intense bow echo that moved south-southeastward across parts of KS overnight should continue to weaken this morning across northeast OK. But in the short term, an isolated threat for severe winds may continue until the cluster fully dissipates. Across eastern CO, occasional severe hail may occur with marginal supercells for another hour or two before additional weakening occurs. The net effect of this overnight/early morning convection on the severe potential across the southern/central Plains remains uncertain. But, a trailing outflow boundary from the decaying MCS now in northeast OK may prove instrumental in focusing significant severe potential this afternoon/evening. A subtle mid-level shortwave trough over the eastern Great Basin and central Rockies will continue to move eastward over the adjacent central/southern High Plains by this evening. At the surface, further deepening of a low over southeast CO is anticipated through the day, with this low forecast to develop into the TX Panhandle by early evening. A lee trough/dryline will extend southward from this low, while a convectively reinforced boundary should extend somewhere along/near the KS/OK border by mid to late afternoon, and potentially northeastward into eastern KS as well. The airmass across east-central CO into western KS was generally not convectively overturned yesterday into early this morning, with the 12Z sounding from DDC still showing around 2800 J/kg of MUCAPE available. Convective development and evolution remain uncertain later today. Still, it appears likely that initially high-based thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain of central CO this afternoon, and then spread east-southeastward over the adjacent High Plains through the evening. Much of eastern CO and vicinity will be in a post-frontal regime. But steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient low-level moisture should support the development of moderate instability. Strong deep-layer shear should foster supercells initially, with associated threat for mainly large to isolated very large hail. Some upscale growth may eventually occur with this activity as it spreads into western KS this evening, along with an increased threat for severe/damaging winds. Farther east into central/eastern KS and MO, severe potential remains highly uncertain, with a myriad of possible solutions offered by various high-resolution guidance. In general, current expectations are for an increasing threat for numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds across parts of KS into northern OK, with one or more intense clusters potentially developing in tandem with a strengthening low-level jet this evening across the southern/central Plains. Significant severe gusts of 75+ mph remain possible, along with a few tornadoes with any sustained supercells along/near the boundary this evening as low-level shear strengthens. Overall, severe probabilities have been expanded southward some across the OK/TX Panhandles and northern/central OK, in an attempt to account for where the outflow boundary/front may be present this afternoon/evening. Additional adjustments to risk areas are likely with later outlook updates pending additional observational and model data. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Tennessee Valley/Southeast... Diurnal heating of a seasonally moist low-level airmass will occur today across the central Appalachians/southern Mid-Atlantic within a modestly sheared environment. Thunderstorms are expected to develop over higher terrain by early afternoon, and subsequently spread eastward through the evening. Some of this activity may form into loosely organized clusters. Occasional strong/damaging winds should be the main severe threat with this activity, particularly across parts of VA/MD where stronger instability is forecast. Farther south into the TN Valley/Southeast, a weak mid/upper-level trough with multiple embedded perturbations should advance slowly eastward through the day. Similar to yesterday, daytime heating of a moist airmass should foster moderate to locally strong instability this afternoon. Around 25-30 kt of mid-level southwesterly flow and similar values of deep-layer shear should support some loose convective organization with multiple thunderstorm clusters that can develop. Have expanded the Marginal Risk for isolated damaging winds southwestward to account for this potential. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 06/17/2025 Read more