Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with large hail, wind damage and possibly a few tornadoes are expected on Tuesday across parts of the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley. Outside of this area, marginally severe storms will be possible across a large part of the central U.S. Storms with isolated severe winds gusts may develop in parts of the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. ...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley... A shortwave mid-level trough will move through the High Plains on Tuesday, as an associated 40 to 50 knot jet streak translates eastward into the central Plains. At the surface, a low will deepen across the Texas Panhandle during the day, as a front stalls from central Kansas northeastward into south-central Iowa. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s F will contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Destabilization and increasing low-level convergence along the front will lead to convective initiation in the mid to late afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop near and to the south the front, with storms moving slowly eastward during the late afternoon and early evening. NAM forecast soundings near the instability axis at 21Z on Tuesday across central Kansas have MLCAPE peaking above 4000 J/kg in some areas, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This, combined with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, will support supercell development. The more vigorous storms could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. In addition, a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is forecast across south-central Kansas, which will create favorable low-level shear for a tornado threat. It appears that a few tornadoes will be possible with the more dominant supercells. Supercells and short intense line segments will also be capable of producing wind damage. The threat should persist into the mid to late evening, as a large cluster of storms moves eastward across central and eastern Kansas and through the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...Central High Plains... A post-frontal airmass in the central and northern High Plains will heat up on Tuesday, in the wake of a mid-level shortwave trough. As temperatures increase during the day, convective initiation is expected in the higher terrain. These storms will move into the lower elevations during the afternoon, where pockets of moderate instability are forecast. The HRRR is the most aggressive solution, which appears to develop a line of organized storms, moving this convection southeastward across the central High Plains Tuesday afternoon. NAM forecast soundings along this corridor at 21Z have 0-6 km shear between 30 and 40 knots, with 700-500 lapse rates of 8 to 9 C/km. This environment should support a severe threat with the more intense component of the line. Hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the central Appalachians on Tuesday, as a lee trough develops in the Mid-Atlantic states. Ahead of the trough, surface dewpoints in the lower 70s F will contribute to moderate instability across much of region. As surface temperatures warm, convection is expected to develop in the higher terrain, with thunderstorms moving eastward into the foothills of the Appalachians during the afternoon. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates should be sufficient for a marginal wind-damage threat. ..Broyles.. 06/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with large hail, wind damage and possibly a few tornadoes are expected on Tuesday across parts of the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley. Outside of this area, marginally severe storms will be possible across a large part of the central U.S. Storms with isolated severe winds gusts may develop in parts of the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. ...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley... A shortwave mid-level trough will move through the High Plains on Tuesday, as an associated 40 to 50 knot jet streak translates eastward into the central Plains. At the surface, a low will deepen across the Texas Panhandle during the day, as a front stalls from central Kansas northeastward into south-central Iowa. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s F will contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Destabilization and increasing low-level convergence along the front will lead to convective initiation in the mid to late afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop near and to the south the front, with storms moving slowly eastward during the late afternoon and early evening. NAM forecast soundings near the instability axis at 21Z on Tuesday across central Kansas have MLCAPE peaking above 4000 J/kg in some areas, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This, combined with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, will support supercell development. The more vigorous storms could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. In addition, a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is forecast across south-central Kansas, which will create favorable low-level shear for a tornado threat. It appears that a few tornadoes will be possible with the more dominant supercells. Supercells and short intense line segments will also be capable of producing wind damage. The threat should persist into the mid to late evening, as a large cluster of storms moves eastward across central and eastern Kansas and through the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...Central High Plains... A post-frontal airmass in the central and northern High Plains will heat up on Tuesday, in the wake of a mid-level shortwave trough. As temperatures increase during the day, convective initiation is expected in the higher terrain. These storms will move into the lower elevations during the afternoon, where pockets of moderate instability are forecast. The HRRR is the most aggressive solution, which appears to develop a line of organized storms, moving this convection southeastward across the central High Plains Tuesday afternoon. NAM forecast soundings along this corridor at 21Z have 0-6 km shear between 30 and 40 knots, with 700-500 lapse rates of 8 to 9 C/km. This environment should support a severe threat with the more intense component of the line. Hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the central Appalachians on Tuesday, as a lee trough develops in the Mid-Atlantic states. Ahead of the trough, surface dewpoints in the lower 70s F will contribute to moderate instability across much of region. As surface temperatures warm, convection is expected to develop in the higher terrain, with thunderstorms moving eastward into the foothills of the Appalachians during the afternoon. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates should be sufficient for a marginal wind-damage threat. ..Broyles.. 06/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with large hail, wind damage and possibly a few tornadoes are expected on Tuesday across parts of the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley. Outside of this area, marginally severe storms will be possible across a large part of the central U.S. Storms with isolated severe winds gusts may develop in parts of the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. ...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley... A shortwave mid-level trough will move through the High Plains on Tuesday, as an associated 40 to 50 knot jet streak translates eastward into the central Plains. At the surface, a low will deepen across the Texas Panhandle during the day, as a front stalls from central Kansas northeastward into south-central Iowa. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s F will contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Destabilization and increasing low-level convergence along the front will lead to convective initiation in the mid to late afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop near and to the south the front, with storms moving slowly eastward during the late afternoon and early evening. NAM forecast soundings near the instability axis at 21Z on Tuesday across central Kansas have MLCAPE peaking above 4000 J/kg in some areas, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This, combined with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, will support supercell development. The more vigorous storms could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. In addition, a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is forecast across south-central Kansas, which will create favorable low-level shear for a tornado threat. It appears that a few tornadoes will be possible with the more dominant supercells. Supercells and short intense line segments will also be capable of producing wind damage. The threat should persist into the mid to late evening, as a large cluster of storms moves eastward across central and eastern Kansas and through the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...Central High Plains... A post-frontal airmass in the central and northern High Plains will heat up on Tuesday, in the wake of a mid-level shortwave trough. As temperatures increase during the day, convective initiation is expected in the higher terrain. These storms will move into the lower elevations during the afternoon, where pockets of moderate instability are forecast. The HRRR is the most aggressive solution, which appears to develop a line of organized storms, moving this convection southeastward across the central High Plains Tuesday afternoon. NAM forecast soundings along this corridor at 21Z have 0-6 km shear between 30 and 40 knots, with 700-500 lapse rates of 8 to 9 C/km. This environment should support a severe threat with the more intense component of the line. Hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the central Appalachians on Tuesday, as a lee trough develops in the Mid-Atlantic states. Ahead of the trough, surface dewpoints in the lower 70s F will contribute to moderate instability across much of region. As surface temperatures warm, convection is expected to develop in the higher terrain, with thunderstorms moving eastward into the foothills of the Appalachians during the afternoon. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates should be sufficient for a marginal wind-damage threat. ..Broyles.. 06/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with large hail, wind damage and possibly a few tornadoes are expected on Tuesday across parts of the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley. Outside of this area, marginally severe storms will be possible across a large part of the central U.S. Storms with isolated severe winds gusts may develop in parts of the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. ...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley... A shortwave mid-level trough will move through the High Plains on Tuesday, as an associated 40 to 50 knot jet streak translates eastward into the central Plains. At the surface, a low will deepen across the Texas Panhandle during the day, as a front stalls from central Kansas northeastward into south-central Iowa. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s F will contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Destabilization and increasing low-level convergence along the front will lead to convective initiation in the mid to late afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop near and to the south the front, with storms moving slowly eastward during the late afternoon and early evening. NAM forecast soundings near the instability axis at 21Z on Tuesday across central Kansas have MLCAPE peaking above 4000 J/kg in some areas, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This, combined with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, will support supercell development. The more vigorous storms could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. In addition, a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is forecast across south-central Kansas, which will create favorable low-level shear for a tornado threat. It appears that a few tornadoes will be possible with the more dominant supercells. Supercells and short intense line segments will also be capable of producing wind damage. The threat should persist into the mid to late evening, as a large cluster of storms moves eastward across central and eastern Kansas and through the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...Central High Plains... A post-frontal airmass in the central and northern High Plains will heat up on Tuesday, in the wake of a mid-level shortwave trough. As temperatures increase during the day, convective initiation is expected in the higher terrain. These storms will move into the lower elevations during the afternoon, where pockets of moderate instability are forecast. The HRRR is the most aggressive solution, which appears to develop a line of organized storms, moving this convection southeastward across the central High Plains Tuesday afternoon. NAM forecast soundings along this corridor at 21Z have 0-6 km shear between 30 and 40 knots, with 700-500 lapse rates of 8 to 9 C/km. This environment should support a severe threat with the more intense component of the line. Hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the central Appalachians on Tuesday, as a lee trough develops in the Mid-Atlantic states. Ahead of the trough, surface dewpoints in the lower 70s F will contribute to moderate instability across much of region. As surface temperatures warm, convection is expected to develop in the higher terrain, with thunderstorms moving eastward into the foothills of the Appalachians during the afternoon. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates should be sufficient for a marginal wind-damage threat. ..Broyles.. 06/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with large hail, wind damage and possibly a few tornadoes are expected on Tuesday across parts of the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley. Outside of this area, marginally severe storms will be possible across a large part of the central U.S. Storms with isolated severe winds gusts may develop in parts of the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. ...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley... A shortwave mid-level trough will move through the High Plains on Tuesday, as an associated 40 to 50 knot jet streak translates eastward into the central Plains. At the surface, a low will deepen across the Texas Panhandle during the day, as a front stalls from central Kansas northeastward into south-central Iowa. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s F will contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Destabilization and increasing low-level convergence along the front will lead to convective initiation in the mid to late afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop near and to the south the front, with storms moving slowly eastward during the late afternoon and early evening. NAM forecast soundings near the instability axis at 21Z on Tuesday across central Kansas have MLCAPE peaking above 4000 J/kg in some areas, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This, combined with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, will support supercell development. The more vigorous storms could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. In addition, a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is forecast across south-central Kansas, which will create favorable low-level shear for a tornado threat. It appears that a few tornadoes will be possible with the more dominant supercells. Supercells and short intense line segments will also be capable of producing wind damage. The threat should persist into the mid to late evening, as a large cluster of storms moves eastward across central and eastern Kansas and through the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...Central High Plains... A post-frontal airmass in the central and northern High Plains will heat up on Tuesday, in the wake of a mid-level shortwave trough. As temperatures increase during the day, convective initiation is expected in the higher terrain. These storms will move into the lower elevations during the afternoon, where pockets of moderate instability are forecast. The HRRR is the most aggressive solution, which appears to develop a line of organized storms, moving this convection southeastward across the central High Plains Tuesday afternoon. NAM forecast soundings along this corridor at 21Z have 0-6 km shear between 30 and 40 knots, with 700-500 lapse rates of 8 to 9 C/km. This environment should support a severe threat with the more intense component of the line. Hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the central Appalachians on Tuesday, as a lee trough develops in the Mid-Atlantic states. Ahead of the trough, surface dewpoints in the lower 70s F will contribute to moderate instability across much of region. As surface temperatures warm, convection is expected to develop in the higher terrain, with thunderstorms moving eastward into the foothills of the Appalachians during the afternoon. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates should be sufficient for a marginal wind-damage threat. ..Broyles.. 06/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with large hail, wind damage and possibly a few tornadoes are expected on Tuesday across parts of the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley. Outside of this area, marginally severe storms will be possible across a large part of the central U.S. Storms with isolated severe winds gusts may develop in parts of the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. ...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley... A shortwave mid-level trough will move through the High Plains on Tuesday, as an associated 40 to 50 knot jet streak translates eastward into the central Plains. At the surface, a low will deepen across the Texas Panhandle during the day, as a front stalls from central Kansas northeastward into south-central Iowa. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s F will contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Destabilization and increasing low-level convergence along the front will lead to convective initiation in the mid to late afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop near and to the south the front, with storms moving slowly eastward during the late afternoon and early evening. NAM forecast soundings near the instability axis at 21Z on Tuesday across central Kansas have MLCAPE peaking above 4000 J/kg in some areas, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This, combined with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, will support supercell development. The more vigorous storms could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. In addition, a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is forecast across south-central Kansas, which will create favorable low-level shear for a tornado threat. It appears that a few tornadoes will be possible with the more dominant supercells. Supercells and short intense line segments will also be capable of producing wind damage. The threat should persist into the mid to late evening, as a large cluster of storms moves eastward across central and eastern Kansas and through the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...Central High Plains... A post-frontal airmass in the central and northern High Plains will heat up on Tuesday, in the wake of a mid-level shortwave trough. As temperatures increase during the day, convective initiation is expected in the higher terrain. These storms will move into the lower elevations during the afternoon, where pockets of moderate instability are forecast. The HRRR is the most aggressive solution, which appears to develop a line of organized storms, moving this convection southeastward across the central High Plains Tuesday afternoon. NAM forecast soundings along this corridor at 21Z have 0-6 km shear between 30 and 40 knots, with 700-500 lapse rates of 8 to 9 C/km. This environment should support a severe threat with the more intense component of the line. Hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the central Appalachians on Tuesday, as a lee trough develops in the Mid-Atlantic states. Ahead of the trough, surface dewpoints in the lower 70s F will contribute to moderate instability across much of region. As surface temperatures warm, convection is expected to develop in the higher terrain, with thunderstorms moving eastward into the foothills of the Appalachians during the afternoon. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates should be sufficient for a marginal wind-damage threat. ..Broyles.. 06/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with large hail, wind damage and possibly a few tornadoes are expected on Tuesday across parts of the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley. Outside of this area, marginally severe storms will be possible across a large part of the central U.S. Storms with isolated severe winds gusts may develop in parts of the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. ...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley... A shortwave mid-level trough will move through the High Plains on Tuesday, as an associated 40 to 50 knot jet streak translates eastward into the central Plains. At the surface, a low will deepen across the Texas Panhandle during the day, as a front stalls from central Kansas northeastward into south-central Iowa. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s F will contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Destabilization and increasing low-level convergence along the front will lead to convective initiation in the mid to late afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop near and to the south the front, with storms moving slowly eastward during the late afternoon and early evening. NAM forecast soundings near the instability axis at 21Z on Tuesday across central Kansas have MLCAPE peaking above 4000 J/kg in some areas, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This, combined with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, will support supercell development. The more vigorous storms could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. In addition, a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is forecast across south-central Kansas, which will create favorable low-level shear for a tornado threat. It appears that a few tornadoes will be possible with the more dominant supercells. Supercells and short intense line segments will also be capable of producing wind damage. The threat should persist into the mid to late evening, as a large cluster of storms moves eastward across central and eastern Kansas and through the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...Central High Plains... A post-frontal airmass in the central and northern High Plains will heat up on Tuesday, in the wake of a mid-level shortwave trough. As temperatures increase during the day, convective initiation is expected in the higher terrain. These storms will move into the lower elevations during the afternoon, where pockets of moderate instability are forecast. The HRRR is the most aggressive solution, which appears to develop a line of organized storms, moving this convection southeastward across the central High Plains Tuesday afternoon. NAM forecast soundings along this corridor at 21Z have 0-6 km shear between 30 and 40 knots, with 700-500 lapse rates of 8 to 9 C/km. This environment should support a severe threat with the more intense component of the line. Hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the central Appalachians on Tuesday, as a lee trough develops in the Mid-Atlantic states. Ahead of the trough, surface dewpoints in the lower 70s F will contribute to moderate instability across much of region. As surface temperatures warm, convection is expected to develop in the higher terrain, with thunderstorms moving eastward into the foothills of the Appalachians during the afternoon. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates should be sufficient for a marginal wind-damage threat. ..Broyles.. 06/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with large hail, wind damage and possibly a few tornadoes are expected on Tuesday across parts of the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley. Outside of this area, marginally severe storms will be possible across a large part of the central U.S. Storms with isolated severe winds gusts may develop in parts of the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. ...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley... A shortwave mid-level trough will move through the High Plains on Tuesday, as an associated 40 to 50 knot jet streak translates eastward into the central Plains. At the surface, a low will deepen across the Texas Panhandle during the day, as a front stalls from central Kansas northeastward into south-central Iowa. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s F will contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Destabilization and increasing low-level convergence along the front will lead to convective initiation in the mid to late afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop near and to the south the front, with storms moving slowly eastward during the late afternoon and early evening. NAM forecast soundings near the instability axis at 21Z on Tuesday across central Kansas have MLCAPE peaking above 4000 J/kg in some areas, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This, combined with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, will support supercell development. The more vigorous storms could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. In addition, a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is forecast across south-central Kansas, which will create favorable low-level shear for a tornado threat. It appears that a few tornadoes will be possible with the more dominant supercells. Supercells and short intense line segments will also be capable of producing wind damage. The threat should persist into the mid to late evening, as a large cluster of storms moves eastward across central and eastern Kansas and through the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...Central High Plains... A post-frontal airmass in the central and northern High Plains will heat up on Tuesday, in the wake of a mid-level shortwave trough. As temperatures increase during the day, convective initiation is expected in the higher terrain. These storms will move into the lower elevations during the afternoon, where pockets of moderate instability are forecast. The HRRR is the most aggressive solution, which appears to develop a line of organized storms, moving this convection southeastward across the central High Plains Tuesday afternoon. NAM forecast soundings along this corridor at 21Z have 0-6 km shear between 30 and 40 knots, with 700-500 lapse rates of 8 to 9 C/km. This environment should support a severe threat with the more intense component of the line. Hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the central Appalachians on Tuesday, as a lee trough develops in the Mid-Atlantic states. Ahead of the trough, surface dewpoints in the lower 70s F will contribute to moderate instability across much of region. As surface temperatures warm, convection is expected to develop in the higher terrain, with thunderstorms moving eastward into the foothills of the Appalachians during the afternoon. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates should be sufficient for a marginal wind-damage threat. ..Broyles.. 06/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with large hail, wind damage and possibly a few tornadoes are expected on Tuesday across parts of the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley. Outside of this area, marginally severe storms will be possible across a large part of the central U.S. Storms with isolated severe winds gusts may develop in parts of the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. ...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley... A shortwave mid-level trough will move through the High Plains on Tuesday, as an associated 40 to 50 knot jet streak translates eastward into the central Plains. At the surface, a low will deepen across the Texas Panhandle during the day, as a front stalls from central Kansas northeastward into south-central Iowa. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s F will contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Destabilization and increasing low-level convergence along the front will lead to convective initiation in the mid to late afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop near and to the south the front, with storms moving slowly eastward during the late afternoon and early evening. NAM forecast soundings near the instability axis at 21Z on Tuesday across central Kansas have MLCAPE peaking above 4000 J/kg in some areas, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This, combined with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, will support supercell development. The more vigorous storms could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. In addition, a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is forecast across south-central Kansas, which will create favorable low-level shear for a tornado threat. It appears that a few tornadoes will be possible with the more dominant supercells. Supercells and short intense line segments will also be capable of producing wind damage. The threat should persist into the mid to late evening, as a large cluster of storms moves eastward across central and eastern Kansas and through the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...Central High Plains... A post-frontal airmass in the central and northern High Plains will heat up on Tuesday, in the wake of a mid-level shortwave trough. As temperatures increase during the day, convective initiation is expected in the higher terrain. These storms will move into the lower elevations during the afternoon, where pockets of moderate instability are forecast. The HRRR is the most aggressive solution, which appears to develop a line of organized storms, moving this convection southeastward across the central High Plains Tuesday afternoon. NAM forecast soundings along this corridor at 21Z have 0-6 km shear between 30 and 40 knots, with 700-500 lapse rates of 8 to 9 C/km. This environment should support a severe threat with the more intense component of the line. Hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the central Appalachians on Tuesday, as a lee trough develops in the Mid-Atlantic states. Ahead of the trough, surface dewpoints in the lower 70s F will contribute to moderate instability across much of region. As surface temperatures warm, convection is expected to develop in the higher terrain, with thunderstorms moving eastward into the foothills of the Appalachians during the afternoon. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates should be sufficient for a marginal wind-damage threat. ..Broyles.. 06/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with large hail, wind damage and possibly a few tornadoes are expected on Tuesday across parts of the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley. Outside of this area, marginally severe storms will be possible across a large part of the central U.S. Storms with isolated severe winds gusts may develop in parts of the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. ...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley... A shortwave mid-level trough will move through the High Plains on Tuesday, as an associated 40 to 50 knot jet streak translates eastward into the central Plains. At the surface, a low will deepen across the Texas Panhandle during the day, as a front stalls from central Kansas northeastward into south-central Iowa. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s F will contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Destabilization and increasing low-level convergence along the front will lead to convective initiation in the mid to late afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop near and to the south the front, with storms moving slowly eastward during the late afternoon and early evening. NAM forecast soundings near the instability axis at 21Z on Tuesday across central Kansas have MLCAPE peaking above 4000 J/kg in some areas, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This, combined with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, will support supercell development. The more vigorous storms could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. In addition, a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is forecast across south-central Kansas, which will create favorable low-level shear for a tornado threat. It appears that a few tornadoes will be possible with the more dominant supercells. Supercells and short intense line segments will also be capable of producing wind damage. The threat should persist into the mid to late evening, as a large cluster of storms moves eastward across central and eastern Kansas and through the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...Central High Plains... A post-frontal airmass in the central and northern High Plains will heat up on Tuesday, in the wake of a mid-level shortwave trough. As temperatures increase during the day, convective initiation is expected in the higher terrain. These storms will move into the lower elevations during the afternoon, where pockets of moderate instability are forecast. The HRRR is the most aggressive solution, which appears to develop a line of organized storms, moving this convection southeastward across the central High Plains Tuesday afternoon. NAM forecast soundings along this corridor at 21Z have 0-6 km shear between 30 and 40 knots, with 700-500 lapse rates of 8 to 9 C/km. This environment should support a severe threat with the more intense component of the line. Hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the central Appalachians on Tuesday, as a lee trough develops in the Mid-Atlantic states. Ahead of the trough, surface dewpoints in the lower 70s F will contribute to moderate instability across much of region. As surface temperatures warm, convection is expected to develop in the higher terrain, with thunderstorms moving eastward into the foothills of the Appalachians during the afternoon. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates should be sufficient for a marginal wind-damage threat. ..Broyles.. 06/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with large hail, wind damage and possibly a few tornadoes are expected on Tuesday across parts of the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley. Outside of this area, marginally severe storms will be possible across a large part of the central U.S. Storms with isolated severe winds gusts may develop in parts of the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. ...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley... A shortwave mid-level trough will move through the High Plains on Tuesday, as an associated 40 to 50 knot jet streak translates eastward into the central Plains. At the surface, a low will deepen across the Texas Panhandle during the day, as a front stalls from central Kansas northeastward into south-central Iowa. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s F will contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Destabilization and increasing low-level convergence along the front will lead to convective initiation in the mid to late afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop near and to the south the front, with storms moving slowly eastward during the late afternoon and early evening. NAM forecast soundings near the instability axis at 21Z on Tuesday across central Kansas have MLCAPE peaking above 4000 J/kg in some areas, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This, combined with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, will support supercell development. The more vigorous storms could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. In addition, a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is forecast across south-central Kansas, which will create favorable low-level shear for a tornado threat. It appears that a few tornadoes will be possible with the more dominant supercells. Supercells and short intense line segments will also be capable of producing wind damage. The threat should persist into the mid to late evening, as a large cluster of storms moves eastward across central and eastern Kansas and through the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...Central High Plains... A post-frontal airmass in the central and northern High Plains will heat up on Tuesday, in the wake of a mid-level shortwave trough. As temperatures increase during the day, convective initiation is expected in the higher terrain. These storms will move into the lower elevations during the afternoon, where pockets of moderate instability are forecast. The HRRR is the most aggressive solution, which appears to develop a line of organized storms, moving this convection southeastward across the central High Plains Tuesday afternoon. NAM forecast soundings along this corridor at 21Z have 0-6 km shear between 30 and 40 knots, with 700-500 lapse rates of 8 to 9 C/km. This environment should support a severe threat with the more intense component of the line. Hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the central Appalachians on Tuesday, as a lee trough develops in the Mid-Atlantic states. Ahead of the trough, surface dewpoints in the lower 70s F will contribute to moderate instability across much of region. As surface temperatures warm, convection is expected to develop in the higher terrain, with thunderstorms moving eastward into the foothills of the Appalachians during the afternoon. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates should be sufficient for a marginal wind-damage threat. ..Broyles.. 06/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with large hail, wind damage and possibly a few tornadoes are expected on Tuesday across parts of the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley. Outside of this area, marginally severe storms will be possible across a large part of the central U.S. Storms with isolated severe winds gusts may develop in parts of the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. ...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley... A shortwave mid-level trough will move through the High Plains on Tuesday, as an associated 40 to 50 knot jet streak translates eastward into the central Plains. At the surface, a low will deepen across the Texas Panhandle during the day, as a front stalls from central Kansas northeastward into south-central Iowa. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s F will contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Destabilization and increasing low-level convergence along the front will lead to convective initiation in the mid to late afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop near and to the south the front, with storms moving slowly eastward during the late afternoon and early evening. NAM forecast soundings near the instability axis at 21Z on Tuesday across central Kansas have MLCAPE peaking above 4000 J/kg in some areas, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This, combined with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, will support supercell development. The more vigorous storms could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. In addition, a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is forecast across south-central Kansas, which will create favorable low-level shear for a tornado threat. It appears that a few tornadoes will be possible with the more dominant supercells. Supercells and short intense line segments will also be capable of producing wind damage. The threat should persist into the mid to late evening, as a large cluster of storms moves eastward across central and eastern Kansas and through the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...Central High Plains... A post-frontal airmass in the central and northern High Plains will heat up on Tuesday, in the wake of a mid-level shortwave trough. As temperatures increase during the day, convective initiation is expected in the higher terrain. These storms will move into the lower elevations during the afternoon, where pockets of moderate instability are forecast. The HRRR is the most aggressive solution, which appears to develop a line of organized storms, moving this convection southeastward across the central High Plains Tuesday afternoon. NAM forecast soundings along this corridor at 21Z have 0-6 km shear between 30 and 40 knots, with 700-500 lapse rates of 8 to 9 C/km. This environment should support a severe threat with the more intense component of the line. Hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the central Appalachians on Tuesday, as a lee trough develops in the Mid-Atlantic states. Ahead of the trough, surface dewpoints in the lower 70s F will contribute to moderate instability across much of region. As surface temperatures warm, convection is expected to develop in the higher terrain, with thunderstorms moving eastward into the foothills of the Appalachians during the afternoon. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates should be sufficient for a marginal wind-damage threat. ..Broyles.. 06/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with large hail, wind damage and possibly a few tornadoes are expected on Tuesday across parts of the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley. Outside of this area, marginally severe storms will be possible across a large part of the central U.S. Storms with isolated severe winds gusts may develop in parts of the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. ...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley... A shortwave mid-level trough will move through the High Plains on Tuesday, as an associated 40 to 50 knot jet streak translates eastward into the central Plains. At the surface, a low will deepen across the Texas Panhandle during the day, as a front stalls from central Kansas northeastward into south-central Iowa. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s F will contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Destabilization and increasing low-level convergence along the front will lead to convective initiation in the mid to late afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop near and to the south the front, with storms moving slowly eastward during the late afternoon and early evening. NAM forecast soundings near the instability axis at 21Z on Tuesday across central Kansas have MLCAPE peaking above 4000 J/kg in some areas, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This, combined with 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, will support supercell development. The more vigorous storms could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. In addition, a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is forecast across south-central Kansas, which will create favorable low-level shear for a tornado threat. It appears that a few tornadoes will be possible with the more dominant supercells. Supercells and short intense line segments will also be capable of producing wind damage. The threat should persist into the mid to late evening, as a large cluster of storms moves eastward across central and eastern Kansas and through the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...Central High Plains... A post-frontal airmass in the central and northern High Plains will heat up on Tuesday, in the wake of a mid-level shortwave trough. As temperatures increase during the day, convective initiation is expected in the higher terrain. These storms will move into the lower elevations during the afternoon, where pockets of moderate instability are forecast. The HRRR is the most aggressive solution, which appears to develop a line of organized storms, moving this convection southeastward across the central High Plains Tuesday afternoon. NAM forecast soundings along this corridor at 21Z have 0-6 km shear between 30 and 40 knots, with 700-500 lapse rates of 8 to 9 C/km. This environment should support a severe threat with the more intense component of the line. Hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats. ...Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the central Appalachians on Tuesday, as a lee trough develops in the Mid-Atlantic states. Ahead of the trough, surface dewpoints in the lower 70s F will contribute to moderate instability across much of region. As surface temperatures warm, convection is expected to develop in the higher terrain, with thunderstorms moving eastward into the foothills of the Appalachians during the afternoon. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates should be sufficient for a marginal wind-damage threat. ..Broyles.. 06/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe gusts, large hail, and perhaps a couple tornadoes are forecast today from the north-central High Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... Within a belt of zonal midlevel flow extending from the northern Rockies/High Plains into the Upper MS Valley, a convectively augmented midlevel impulse/MCV will track eastward across the Dakotas into MN through the afternoon. In response to this feature, a weak frontal-wave low will migrate eastward from the eastern Dakotas into MN -- along a surface boundary extending southwestward through the central Plains. Farther west, an additional low-amplitude impulse accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft will emerge over the northern/central High Plains during the late afternoon/early evening. ...Upper MS Valley into the central Plains... Scattered thunderstorms should generally be focused along/ahead of the frontal-wave low and remnant MCV as it moves into MN during the afternoon, with additional trailing development possible along the surface boundary into NE. Here, rich boundary-layer moisture and modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to a strongly unstable air mass, while the enhanced midlevel westerly flow yields around 40 kt of effective shear. This should support a risk of a couple supercells and organized clusters capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes. ...Southeast MT into the central High Plains... As low-level lapse rates diurnally steepen amid recycled/post-frontal boundary-layer moisture over the northern/central High Plains, scattered thunderstorms should evolve eastward from southeast MT/eastern WY into the central Plains -- aided by the emerging midlevel impulse. Upwards of 40-50 kt of effective shear and steepening deep-layer lapse rates will favor large hail and locally severe wind gusts with initial discrete/semi-discrete supercell structures and organized clusters. As these storms track east-southeastward into the evening, additional storms may be developing farther south along the southwestward-extending surface boundary over western/central NE/northeastern CO/northwest KS. While the overall convective evolution is unclear, current thinking is that multiple opportunities for upscale growth into one or more MCSs will exist in the NE/KS vicinity into the evening/overnight hours. A swath of severe wind will be possible where this evolution occurs. ..Weinman/Leitman.. 06/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe gusts, large hail, and perhaps a couple tornadoes are forecast today from the north-central High Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... Within a belt of zonal midlevel flow extending from the northern Rockies/High Plains into the Upper MS Valley, a convectively augmented midlevel impulse/MCV will track eastward across the Dakotas into MN through the afternoon. In response to this feature, a weak frontal-wave low will migrate eastward from the eastern Dakotas into MN -- along a surface boundary extending southwestward through the central Plains. Farther west, an additional low-amplitude impulse accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft will emerge over the northern/central High Plains during the late afternoon/early evening. ...Upper MS Valley into the central Plains... Scattered thunderstorms should generally be focused along/ahead of the frontal-wave low and remnant MCV as it moves into MN during the afternoon, with additional trailing development possible along the surface boundary into NE. Here, rich boundary-layer moisture and modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to a strongly unstable air mass, while the enhanced midlevel westerly flow yields around 40 kt of effective shear. This should support a risk of a couple supercells and organized clusters capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes. ...Southeast MT into the central High Plains... As low-level lapse rates diurnally steepen amid recycled/post-frontal boundary-layer moisture over the northern/central High Plains, scattered thunderstorms should evolve eastward from southeast MT/eastern WY into the central Plains -- aided by the emerging midlevel impulse. Upwards of 40-50 kt of effective shear and steepening deep-layer lapse rates will favor large hail and locally severe wind gusts with initial discrete/semi-discrete supercell structures and organized clusters. As these storms track east-southeastward into the evening, additional storms may be developing farther south along the southwestward-extending surface boundary over western/central NE/northeastern CO/northwest KS. While the overall convective evolution is unclear, current thinking is that multiple opportunities for upscale growth into one or more MCSs will exist in the NE/KS vicinity into the evening/overnight hours. A swath of severe wind will be possible where this evolution occurs. ..Weinman/Leitman.. 06/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe gusts, large hail, and perhaps a couple tornadoes are forecast today from the north-central High Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... Within a belt of zonal midlevel flow extending from the northern Rockies/High Plains into the Upper MS Valley, a convectively augmented midlevel impulse/MCV will track eastward across the Dakotas into MN through the afternoon. In response to this feature, a weak frontal-wave low will migrate eastward from the eastern Dakotas into MN -- along a surface boundary extending southwestward through the central Plains. Farther west, an additional low-amplitude impulse accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft will emerge over the northern/central High Plains during the late afternoon/early evening. ...Upper MS Valley into the central Plains... Scattered thunderstorms should generally be focused along/ahead of the frontal-wave low and remnant MCV as it moves into MN during the afternoon, with additional trailing development possible along the surface boundary into NE. Here, rich boundary-layer moisture and modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to a strongly unstable air mass, while the enhanced midlevel westerly flow yields around 40 kt of effective shear. This should support a risk of a couple supercells and organized clusters capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes. ...Southeast MT into the central High Plains... As low-level lapse rates diurnally steepen amid recycled/post-frontal boundary-layer moisture over the northern/central High Plains, scattered thunderstorms should evolve eastward from southeast MT/eastern WY into the central Plains -- aided by the emerging midlevel impulse. Upwards of 40-50 kt of effective shear and steepening deep-layer lapse rates will favor large hail and locally severe wind gusts with initial discrete/semi-discrete supercell structures and organized clusters. As these storms track east-southeastward into the evening, additional storms may be developing farther south along the southwestward-extending surface boundary over western/central NE/northeastern CO/northwest KS. While the overall convective evolution is unclear, current thinking is that multiple opportunities for upscale growth into one or more MCSs will exist in the NE/KS vicinity into the evening/overnight hours. A swath of severe wind will be possible where this evolution occurs. ..Weinman/Leitman.. 06/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe gusts, large hail, and perhaps a couple tornadoes are forecast today from the north-central High Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... Within a belt of zonal midlevel flow extending from the northern Rockies/High Plains into the Upper MS Valley, a convectively augmented midlevel impulse/MCV will track eastward across the Dakotas into MN through the afternoon. In response to this feature, a weak frontal-wave low will migrate eastward from the eastern Dakotas into MN -- along a surface boundary extending southwestward through the central Plains. Farther west, an additional low-amplitude impulse accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft will emerge over the northern/central High Plains during the late afternoon/early evening. ...Upper MS Valley into the central Plains... Scattered thunderstorms should generally be focused along/ahead of the frontal-wave low and remnant MCV as it moves into MN during the afternoon, with additional trailing development possible along the surface boundary into NE. Here, rich boundary-layer moisture and modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to a strongly unstable air mass, while the enhanced midlevel westerly flow yields around 40 kt of effective shear. This should support a risk of a couple supercells and organized clusters capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes. ...Southeast MT into the central High Plains... As low-level lapse rates diurnally steepen amid recycled/post-frontal boundary-layer moisture over the northern/central High Plains, scattered thunderstorms should evolve eastward from southeast MT/eastern WY into the central Plains -- aided by the emerging midlevel impulse. Upwards of 40-50 kt of effective shear and steepening deep-layer lapse rates will favor large hail and locally severe wind gusts with initial discrete/semi-discrete supercell structures and organized clusters. As these storms track east-southeastward into the evening, additional storms may be developing farther south along the southwestward-extending surface boundary over western/central NE/northeastern CO/northwest KS. While the overall convective evolution is unclear, current thinking is that multiple opportunities for upscale growth into one or more MCSs will exist in the NE/KS vicinity into the evening/overnight hours. A swath of severe wind will be possible where this evolution occurs. ..Weinman/Leitman.. 06/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe gusts, large hail, and perhaps a couple tornadoes are forecast today from the north-central High Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... Within a belt of zonal midlevel flow extending from the northern Rockies/High Plains into the Upper MS Valley, a convectively augmented midlevel impulse/MCV will track eastward across the Dakotas into MN through the afternoon. In response to this feature, a weak frontal-wave low will migrate eastward from the eastern Dakotas into MN -- along a surface boundary extending southwestward through the central Plains. Farther west, an additional low-amplitude impulse accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft will emerge over the northern/central High Plains during the late afternoon/early evening. ...Upper MS Valley into the central Plains... Scattered thunderstorms should generally be focused along/ahead of the frontal-wave low and remnant MCV as it moves into MN during the afternoon, with additional trailing development possible along the surface boundary into NE. Here, rich boundary-layer moisture and modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to a strongly unstable air mass, while the enhanced midlevel westerly flow yields around 40 kt of effective shear. This should support a risk of a couple supercells and organized clusters capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes. ...Southeast MT into the central High Plains... As low-level lapse rates diurnally steepen amid recycled/post-frontal boundary-layer moisture over the northern/central High Plains, scattered thunderstorms should evolve eastward from southeast MT/eastern WY into the central Plains -- aided by the emerging midlevel impulse. Upwards of 40-50 kt of effective shear and steepening deep-layer lapse rates will favor large hail and locally severe wind gusts with initial discrete/semi-discrete supercell structures and organized clusters. As these storms track east-southeastward into the evening, additional storms may be developing farther south along the southwestward-extending surface boundary over western/central NE/northeastern CO/northwest KS. While the overall convective evolution is unclear, current thinking is that multiple opportunities for upscale growth into one or more MCSs will exist in the NE/KS vicinity into the evening/overnight hours. A swath of severe wind will be possible where this evolution occurs. ..Weinman/Leitman.. 06/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe gusts, large hail, and perhaps a couple tornadoes are forecast today from the north-central High Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... Within a belt of zonal midlevel flow extending from the northern Rockies/High Plains into the Upper MS Valley, a convectively augmented midlevel impulse/MCV will track eastward across the Dakotas into MN through the afternoon. In response to this feature, a weak frontal-wave low will migrate eastward from the eastern Dakotas into MN -- along a surface boundary extending southwestward through the central Plains. Farther west, an additional low-amplitude impulse accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft will emerge over the northern/central High Plains during the late afternoon/early evening. ...Upper MS Valley into the central Plains... Scattered thunderstorms should generally be focused along/ahead of the frontal-wave low and remnant MCV as it moves into MN during the afternoon, with additional trailing development possible along the surface boundary into NE. Here, rich boundary-layer moisture and modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to a strongly unstable air mass, while the enhanced midlevel westerly flow yields around 40 kt of effective shear. This should support a risk of a couple supercells and organized clusters capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes. ...Southeast MT into the central High Plains... As low-level lapse rates diurnally steepen amid recycled/post-frontal boundary-layer moisture over the northern/central High Plains, scattered thunderstorms should evolve eastward from southeast MT/eastern WY into the central Plains -- aided by the emerging midlevel impulse. Upwards of 40-50 kt of effective shear and steepening deep-layer lapse rates will favor large hail and locally severe wind gusts with initial discrete/semi-discrete supercell structures and organized clusters. As these storms track east-southeastward into the evening, additional storms may be developing farther south along the southwestward-extending surface boundary over western/central NE/northeastern CO/northwest KS. While the overall convective evolution is unclear, current thinking is that multiple opportunities for upscale growth into one or more MCSs will exist in the NE/KS vicinity into the evening/overnight hours. A swath of severe wind will be possible where this evolution occurs. ..Weinman/Leitman.. 06/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe gusts, large hail, and perhaps a couple tornadoes are forecast today from the north-central High Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... Within a belt of zonal midlevel flow extending from the northern Rockies/High Plains into the Upper MS Valley, a convectively augmented midlevel impulse/MCV will track eastward across the Dakotas into MN through the afternoon. In response to this feature, a weak frontal-wave low will migrate eastward from the eastern Dakotas into MN -- along a surface boundary extending southwestward through the central Plains. Farther west, an additional low-amplitude impulse accompanied by strong westerly flow aloft will emerge over the northern/central High Plains during the late afternoon/early evening. ...Upper MS Valley into the central Plains... Scattered thunderstorms should generally be focused along/ahead of the frontal-wave low and remnant MCV as it moves into MN during the afternoon, with additional trailing development possible along the surface boundary into NE. Here, rich boundary-layer moisture and modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to a strongly unstable air mass, while the enhanced midlevel westerly flow yields around 40 kt of effective shear. This should support a risk of a couple supercells and organized clusters capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes. ...Southeast MT into the central High Plains... As low-level lapse rates diurnally steepen amid recycled/post-frontal boundary-layer moisture over the northern/central High Plains, scattered thunderstorms should evolve eastward from southeast MT/eastern WY into the central Plains -- aided by the emerging midlevel impulse. Upwards of 40-50 kt of effective shear and steepening deep-layer lapse rates will favor large hail and locally severe wind gusts with initial discrete/semi-discrete supercell structures and organized clusters. As these storms track east-southeastward into the evening, additional storms may be developing farther south along the southwestward-extending surface boundary over western/central NE/northeastern CO/northwest KS. While the overall convective evolution is unclear, current thinking is that multiple opportunities for upscale growth into one or more MCSs will exist in the NE/KS vicinity into the evening/overnight hours. A swath of severe wind will be possible where this evolution occurs. ..Weinman/Leitman.. 06/16/2025 Read more