Severe Storms

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail are expected on Wednesday from the southern Plains to the southern Great Lakes. ...Mid Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley/Southern Great Lakes... A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward through the Upper Midwest on Wednesday. At the surface, a low is forecast to deepen and move northeastward into the western Great Lakes, as a cold front advances eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F will contribute to moderate instability across much of the airmass by afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front, with several convective clusters moving eastward toward the stronger instability during the late afternoon and early evening. Model forecasts suggest that the strongest instability will be located over the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys, while the strongest deep-layer shear will be located in the southern Great Lakes. The disjointed nature of the pattern could mean that the severe threat could remain relatively unfocused. The current thinking is that a broad corridor with an isolated severe threat will develop during the afternoon. Supercells with hail will be possible. However, it appears convection may tend to organize into lines, which would result in the greatest severe threat being wind damage. The severe threat is expected to move eastward into the lower Great Lakes and into part of the Ohio Valley by early to mid evening. ...Southern Plains/Ozarks... The southern extent of a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move through the southern Plains on Wednesday. By afternoon, a cold front is forecast to be located from western Oklahoma to western Missouri. To the southeast of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s F will likely enable moderate instability to develop across much of the moist airmass by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm during the day, convective initiation should take place along and near the front. Multiple convective clusters appear likely to initiate and move toward an axis of moderate instability during the afternoon. NAM forecast soundings at 21Z near the instability axis in Oklahoma and Missouri have 0-6km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.5 to 8 C/km. Supercells with large hail will be possible. However, storm mode may tend to favor multicell lines or clusters with wind-damage potential. The severe threat is expected to continue into the evening, with the overall threat moving southeastward. ..Broyles.. 06/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail are expected on Wednesday from the southern Plains to the southern Great Lakes. ...Mid Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley/Southern Great Lakes... A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward through the Upper Midwest on Wednesday. At the surface, a low is forecast to deepen and move northeastward into the western Great Lakes, as a cold front advances eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F will contribute to moderate instability across much of the airmass by afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front, with several convective clusters moving eastward toward the stronger instability during the late afternoon and early evening. Model forecasts suggest that the strongest instability will be located over the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys, while the strongest deep-layer shear will be located in the southern Great Lakes. The disjointed nature of the pattern could mean that the severe threat could remain relatively unfocused. The current thinking is that a broad corridor with an isolated severe threat will develop during the afternoon. Supercells with hail will be possible. However, it appears convection may tend to organize into lines, which would result in the greatest severe threat being wind damage. The severe threat is expected to move eastward into the lower Great Lakes and into part of the Ohio Valley by early to mid evening. ...Southern Plains/Ozarks... The southern extent of a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move through the southern Plains on Wednesday. By afternoon, a cold front is forecast to be located from western Oklahoma to western Missouri. To the southeast of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s F will likely enable moderate instability to develop across much of the moist airmass by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm during the day, convective initiation should take place along and near the front. Multiple convective clusters appear likely to initiate and move toward an axis of moderate instability during the afternoon. NAM forecast soundings at 21Z near the instability axis in Oklahoma and Missouri have 0-6km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.5 to 8 C/km. Supercells with large hail will be possible. However, storm mode may tend to favor multicell lines or clusters with wind-damage potential. The severe threat is expected to continue into the evening, with the overall threat moving southeastward. ..Broyles.. 06/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail are expected on Wednesday from the southern Plains to the southern Great Lakes. ...Mid Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley/Southern Great Lakes... A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward through the Upper Midwest on Wednesday. At the surface, a low is forecast to deepen and move northeastward into the western Great Lakes, as a cold front advances eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F will contribute to moderate instability across much of the airmass by afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front, with several convective clusters moving eastward toward the stronger instability during the late afternoon and early evening. Model forecasts suggest that the strongest instability will be located over the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys, while the strongest deep-layer shear will be located in the southern Great Lakes. The disjointed nature of the pattern could mean that the severe threat could remain relatively unfocused. The current thinking is that a broad corridor with an isolated severe threat will develop during the afternoon. Supercells with hail will be possible. However, it appears convection may tend to organize into lines, which would result in the greatest severe threat being wind damage. The severe threat is expected to move eastward into the lower Great Lakes and into part of the Ohio Valley by early to mid evening. ...Southern Plains/Ozarks... The southern extent of a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move through the southern Plains on Wednesday. By afternoon, a cold front is forecast to be located from western Oklahoma to western Missouri. To the southeast of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s F will likely enable moderate instability to develop across much of the moist airmass by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm during the day, convective initiation should take place along and near the front. Multiple convective clusters appear likely to initiate and move toward an axis of moderate instability during the afternoon. NAM forecast soundings at 21Z near the instability axis in Oklahoma and Missouri have 0-6km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.5 to 8 C/km. Supercells with large hail will be possible. However, storm mode may tend to favor multicell lines or clusters with wind-damage potential. The severe threat is expected to continue into the evening, with the overall threat moving southeastward. ..Broyles.. 06/16/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND EASTERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... Within the base of a midlevel trough advancing eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies, moderate deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Southwest during the afternoon. In response to this feature, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains. ...Western NM and Eastern AZ... Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient peripheral to the deepening lee cyclone, will contribute to an expansive area of single-digit RH and 20 mph sustained westerly surface winds across western NM and eastern AZ. These dry/windy conditions atop increasingly dry fuels will lead to critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 06/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND EASTERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... Within the base of a midlevel trough advancing eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies, moderate deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Southwest during the afternoon. In response to this feature, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains. ...Western NM and Eastern AZ... Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient peripheral to the deepening lee cyclone, will contribute to an expansive area of single-digit RH and 20 mph sustained westerly surface winds across western NM and eastern AZ. These dry/windy conditions atop increasingly dry fuels will lead to critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 06/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND EASTERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... Within the base of a midlevel trough advancing eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies, moderate deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Southwest during the afternoon. In response to this feature, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains. ...Western NM and Eastern AZ... Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient peripheral to the deepening lee cyclone, will contribute to an expansive area of single-digit RH and 20 mph sustained westerly surface winds across western NM and eastern AZ. These dry/windy conditions atop increasingly dry fuels will lead to critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 06/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND EASTERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... Within the base of a midlevel trough advancing eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies, moderate deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Southwest during the afternoon. In response to this feature, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains. ...Western NM and Eastern AZ... Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient peripheral to the deepening lee cyclone, will contribute to an expansive area of single-digit RH and 20 mph sustained westerly surface winds across western NM and eastern AZ. These dry/windy conditions atop increasingly dry fuels will lead to critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 06/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND EASTERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... Within the base of a midlevel trough advancing eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies, moderate deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Southwest during the afternoon. In response to this feature, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains. ...Western NM and Eastern AZ... Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient peripheral to the deepening lee cyclone, will contribute to an expansive area of single-digit RH and 20 mph sustained westerly surface winds across western NM and eastern AZ. These dry/windy conditions atop increasingly dry fuels will lead to critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 06/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND EASTERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... Within the base of a midlevel trough advancing eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies, moderate deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Southwest during the afternoon. In response to this feature, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains. ...Western NM and Eastern AZ... Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient peripheral to the deepening lee cyclone, will contribute to an expansive area of single-digit RH and 20 mph sustained westerly surface winds across western NM and eastern AZ. These dry/windy conditions atop increasingly dry fuels will lead to critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 06/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND EASTERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... Within the base of a midlevel trough advancing eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies, moderate deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Southwest during the afternoon. In response to this feature, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains. ...Western NM and Eastern AZ... Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient peripheral to the deepening lee cyclone, will contribute to an expansive area of single-digit RH and 20 mph sustained westerly surface winds across western NM and eastern AZ. These dry/windy conditions atop increasingly dry fuels will lead to critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 06/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND EASTERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... Within the base of a midlevel trough advancing eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies, moderate deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Southwest during the afternoon. In response to this feature, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains. ...Western NM and Eastern AZ... Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient peripheral to the deepening lee cyclone, will contribute to an expansive area of single-digit RH and 20 mph sustained westerly surface winds across western NM and eastern AZ. These dry/windy conditions atop increasingly dry fuels will lead to critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 06/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND EASTERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... Within the base of a midlevel trough advancing eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies, moderate deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Southwest during the afternoon. In response to this feature, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains. ...Western NM and Eastern AZ... Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient peripheral to the deepening lee cyclone, will contribute to an expansive area of single-digit RH and 20 mph sustained westerly surface winds across western NM and eastern AZ. These dry/windy conditions atop increasingly dry fuels will lead to critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 06/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND EASTERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... Within the base of a midlevel trough advancing eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies, moderate deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Southwest during the afternoon. In response to this feature, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains. ...Western NM and Eastern AZ... Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient peripheral to the deepening lee cyclone, will contribute to an expansive area of single-digit RH and 20 mph sustained westerly surface winds across western NM and eastern AZ. These dry/windy conditions atop increasingly dry fuels will lead to critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 06/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND EASTERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... Within the base of a midlevel trough advancing eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies, moderate deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Southwest during the afternoon. In response to this feature, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains. ...Western NM and Eastern AZ... Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient peripheral to the deepening lee cyclone, will contribute to an expansive area of single-digit RH and 20 mph sustained westerly surface winds across western NM and eastern AZ. These dry/windy conditions atop increasingly dry fuels will lead to critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 06/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND EASTERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... Within the base of a midlevel trough advancing eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies, moderate deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Southwest during the afternoon. In response to this feature, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains. ...Western NM and Eastern AZ... Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient peripheral to the deepening lee cyclone, will contribute to an expansive area of single-digit RH and 20 mph sustained westerly surface winds across western NM and eastern AZ. These dry/windy conditions atop increasingly dry fuels will lead to critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 06/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND EASTERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... Within the base of a midlevel trough advancing eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies, moderate deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Southwest during the afternoon. In response to this feature, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains. ...Western NM and Eastern AZ... Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient peripheral to the deepening lee cyclone, will contribute to an expansive area of single-digit RH and 20 mph sustained westerly surface winds across western NM and eastern AZ. These dry/windy conditions atop increasingly dry fuels will lead to critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 06/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND EASTERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... Within the base of a midlevel trough advancing eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies, moderate deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Southwest during the afternoon. In response to this feature, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central High Plains. ...Western NM and Eastern AZ... Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient peripheral to the deepening lee cyclone, will contribute to an expansive area of single-digit RH and 20 mph sustained westerly surface winds across western NM and eastern AZ. These dry/windy conditions atop increasingly dry fuels will lead to critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ..Weinman.. 06/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...SOUTHWESTERN UTAH...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will advance eastward from the West Coast across parts of the Great Basin/Intermountain West today. Within the base of the trough, moderate deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Great Basin, while a weak surface low/trough evolves over the Lower CO River Valley. ...Southern NV into Southwest UT and far Northwest AZ... Along the southern periphery of mid/high-level clouds preceding the midlevel trough, strong diurnal heating of a warm/dry antecedent air mass will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer across the southern Great Basin. The deep mixing into the enhanced flow aloft, along with a tightening pressure gradient peripheral to the surface low/trough, will yield single-digit RH and 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across southern NV, southwest UT, and far northwest AZ. Given increasingly dry fuels across the region, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther north, modest westerly flow aloft across the Cascades will contribute to locally dry/breezy downslope flow into the Columbia Basin, where elevated fire-weather conditions are forecast. ..Weinman.. 06/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...SOUTHWESTERN UTAH...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will advance eastward from the West Coast across parts of the Great Basin/Intermountain West today. Within the base of the trough, moderate deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Great Basin, while a weak surface low/trough evolves over the Lower CO River Valley. ...Southern NV into Southwest UT and far Northwest AZ... Along the southern periphery of mid/high-level clouds preceding the midlevel trough, strong diurnal heating of a warm/dry antecedent air mass will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer across the southern Great Basin. The deep mixing into the enhanced flow aloft, along with a tightening pressure gradient peripheral to the surface low/trough, will yield single-digit RH and 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across southern NV, southwest UT, and far northwest AZ. Given increasingly dry fuels across the region, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther north, modest westerly flow aloft across the Cascades will contribute to locally dry/breezy downslope flow into the Columbia Basin, where elevated fire-weather conditions are forecast. ..Weinman.. 06/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...SOUTHWESTERN UTAH...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will advance eastward from the West Coast across parts of the Great Basin/Intermountain West today. Within the base of the trough, moderate deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Great Basin, while a weak surface low/trough evolves over the Lower CO River Valley. ...Southern NV into Southwest UT and far Northwest AZ... Along the southern periphery of mid/high-level clouds preceding the midlevel trough, strong diurnal heating of a warm/dry antecedent air mass will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer across the southern Great Basin. The deep mixing into the enhanced flow aloft, along with a tightening pressure gradient peripheral to the surface low/trough, will yield single-digit RH and 20-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across southern NV, southwest UT, and far northwest AZ. Given increasingly dry fuels across the region, critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther north, modest westerly flow aloft across the Cascades will contribute to locally dry/breezy downslope flow into the Columbia Basin, where elevated fire-weather conditions are forecast. ..Weinman.. 06/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more