Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5... A mid-level trough is forecast to move into the Northeast on Thursday, as a cold front advances eastward into the central Appalachians. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place. Moderate instability is expected to develop ahead of the front across the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered convective initiation will likely take place along and ahead of the front. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates should support a severe threat during the afternoon, with the primary threat being damaging wind gusts. On Friday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the northern Plains. Beneath the ridge, a moist airmass will likely be in place, and moderate instability is expected to develop within this airmass. Ahead of the ridge, thunderstorm development will be possible in the upper Mississippi Valley during the afternoon. Although a severe threat may develop in areas that become moderately unstable, there is some uncertainty concerning convective coverage due to the presence of the ridge. ...Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8... Mid-level heights are forecast to rise on Saturday and Sunday across the eastern half of the nation, as a large area of high pressure dominates. In the western U.S. over the weekend, a mid-level trough is forecast to move northeastward from the Intermountain West into the northern High Plains. Ahead of the trough, strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening across parts of eastern Montana. In spite of the potential, there is still spatial uncertainty concerning the timing of the trough. The severe threat is expected to shift northeastward into Canada on Sunday. On Monday, southwest mid-level flow is forecast over much of the north-central U.S. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. An isolated severe threat will again be possible, but there is considerable uncertainty on any potential scenario. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5... A mid-level trough is forecast to move into the Northeast on Thursday, as a cold front advances eastward into the central Appalachians. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place. Moderate instability is expected to develop ahead of the front across the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered convective initiation will likely take place along and ahead of the front. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates should support a severe threat during the afternoon, with the primary threat being damaging wind gusts. On Friday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the northern Plains. Beneath the ridge, a moist airmass will likely be in place, and moderate instability is expected to develop within this airmass. Ahead of the ridge, thunderstorm development will be possible in the upper Mississippi Valley during the afternoon. Although a severe threat may develop in areas that become moderately unstable, there is some uncertainty concerning convective coverage due to the presence of the ridge. ...Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8... Mid-level heights are forecast to rise on Saturday and Sunday across the eastern half of the nation, as a large area of high pressure dominates. In the western U.S. over the weekend, a mid-level trough is forecast to move northeastward from the Intermountain West into the northern High Plains. Ahead of the trough, strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening across parts of eastern Montana. In spite of the potential, there is still spatial uncertainty concerning the timing of the trough. The severe threat is expected to shift northeastward into Canada on Sunday. On Monday, southwest mid-level flow is forecast over much of the north-central U.S. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. An isolated severe threat will again be possible, but there is considerable uncertainty on any potential scenario. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5... A mid-level trough is forecast to move into the Northeast on Thursday, as a cold front advances eastward into the central Appalachians. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place. Moderate instability is expected to develop ahead of the front across the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered convective initiation will likely take place along and ahead of the front. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates should support a severe threat during the afternoon, with the primary threat being damaging wind gusts. On Friday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the northern Plains. Beneath the ridge, a moist airmass will likely be in place, and moderate instability is expected to develop within this airmass. Ahead of the ridge, thunderstorm development will be possible in the upper Mississippi Valley during the afternoon. Although a severe threat may develop in areas that become moderately unstable, there is some uncertainty concerning convective coverage due to the presence of the ridge. ...Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8... Mid-level heights are forecast to rise on Saturday and Sunday across the eastern half of the nation, as a large area of high pressure dominates. In the western U.S. over the weekend, a mid-level trough is forecast to move northeastward from the Intermountain West into the northern High Plains. Ahead of the trough, strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening across parts of eastern Montana. In spite of the potential, there is still spatial uncertainty concerning the timing of the trough. The severe threat is expected to shift northeastward into Canada on Sunday. On Monday, southwest mid-level flow is forecast over much of the north-central U.S. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. An isolated severe threat will again be possible, but there is considerable uncertainty on any potential scenario. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5... A mid-level trough is forecast to move into the Northeast on Thursday, as a cold front advances eastward into the central Appalachians. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place. Moderate instability is expected to develop ahead of the front across the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered convective initiation will likely take place along and ahead of the front. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates should support a severe threat during the afternoon, with the primary threat being damaging wind gusts. On Friday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the northern Plains. Beneath the ridge, a moist airmass will likely be in place, and moderate instability is expected to develop within this airmass. Ahead of the ridge, thunderstorm development will be possible in the upper Mississippi Valley during the afternoon. Although a severe threat may develop in areas that become moderately unstable, there is some uncertainty concerning convective coverage due to the presence of the ridge. ...Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8... Mid-level heights are forecast to rise on Saturday and Sunday across the eastern half of the nation, as a large area of high pressure dominates. In the western U.S. over the weekend, a mid-level trough is forecast to move northeastward from the Intermountain West into the northern High Plains. Ahead of the trough, strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening across parts of eastern Montana. In spite of the potential, there is still spatial uncertainty concerning the timing of the trough. The severe threat is expected to shift northeastward into Canada on Sunday. On Monday, southwest mid-level flow is forecast over much of the north-central U.S. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. An isolated severe threat will again be possible, but there is considerable uncertainty on any potential scenario. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5... A mid-level trough is forecast to move into the Northeast on Thursday, as a cold front advances eastward into the central Appalachians. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place. Moderate instability is expected to develop ahead of the front across the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered convective initiation will likely take place along and ahead of the front. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates should support a severe threat during the afternoon, with the primary threat being damaging wind gusts. On Friday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the northern Plains. Beneath the ridge, a moist airmass will likely be in place, and moderate instability is expected to develop within this airmass. Ahead of the ridge, thunderstorm development will be possible in the upper Mississippi Valley during the afternoon. Although a severe threat may develop in areas that become moderately unstable, there is some uncertainty concerning convective coverage due to the presence of the ridge. ...Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8... Mid-level heights are forecast to rise on Saturday and Sunday across the eastern half of the nation, as a large area of high pressure dominates. In the western U.S. over the weekend, a mid-level trough is forecast to move northeastward from the Intermountain West into the northern High Plains. Ahead of the trough, strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening across parts of eastern Montana. In spite of the potential, there is still spatial uncertainty concerning the timing of the trough. The severe threat is expected to shift northeastward into Canada on Sunday. On Monday, southwest mid-level flow is forecast over much of the north-central U.S. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. An isolated severe threat will again be possible, but there is considerable uncertainty on any potential scenario. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5... A mid-level trough is forecast to move into the Northeast on Thursday, as a cold front advances eastward into the central Appalachians. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place. Moderate instability is expected to develop ahead of the front across the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered convective initiation will likely take place along and ahead of the front. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates should support a severe threat during the afternoon, with the primary threat being damaging wind gusts. On Friday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the northern Plains. Beneath the ridge, a moist airmass will likely be in place, and moderate instability is expected to develop within this airmass. Ahead of the ridge, thunderstorm development will be possible in the upper Mississippi Valley during the afternoon. Although a severe threat may develop in areas that become moderately unstable, there is some uncertainty concerning convective coverage due to the presence of the ridge. ...Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8... Mid-level heights are forecast to rise on Saturday and Sunday across the eastern half of the nation, as a large area of high pressure dominates. In the western U.S. over the weekend, a mid-level trough is forecast to move northeastward from the Intermountain West into the northern High Plains. Ahead of the trough, strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening across parts of eastern Montana. In spite of the potential, there is still spatial uncertainty concerning the timing of the trough. The severe threat is expected to shift northeastward into Canada on Sunday. On Monday, southwest mid-level flow is forecast over much of the north-central U.S. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. An isolated severe threat will again be possible, but there is considerable uncertainty on any potential scenario. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5... A mid-level trough is forecast to move into the Northeast on Thursday, as a cold front advances eastward into the central Appalachians. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place. Moderate instability is expected to develop ahead of the front across the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered convective initiation will likely take place along and ahead of the front. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates should support a severe threat during the afternoon, with the primary threat being damaging wind gusts. On Friday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the northern Plains. Beneath the ridge, a moist airmass will likely be in place, and moderate instability is expected to develop within this airmass. Ahead of the ridge, thunderstorm development will be possible in the upper Mississippi Valley during the afternoon. Although a severe threat may develop in areas that become moderately unstable, there is some uncertainty concerning convective coverage due to the presence of the ridge. ...Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8... Mid-level heights are forecast to rise on Saturday and Sunday across the eastern half of the nation, as a large area of high pressure dominates. In the western U.S. over the weekend, a mid-level trough is forecast to move northeastward from the Intermountain West into the northern High Plains. Ahead of the trough, strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening across parts of eastern Montana. In spite of the potential, there is still spatial uncertainty concerning the timing of the trough. The severe threat is expected to shift northeastward into Canada on Sunday. On Monday, southwest mid-level flow is forecast over much of the north-central U.S. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. An isolated severe threat will again be possible, but there is considerable uncertainty on any potential scenario. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5... A mid-level trough is forecast to move into the Northeast on Thursday, as a cold front advances eastward into the central Appalachians. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place. Moderate instability is expected to develop ahead of the front across the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered convective initiation will likely take place along and ahead of the front. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates should support a severe threat during the afternoon, with the primary threat being damaging wind gusts. On Friday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the northern Plains. Beneath the ridge, a moist airmass will likely be in place, and moderate instability is expected to develop within this airmass. Ahead of the ridge, thunderstorm development will be possible in the upper Mississippi Valley during the afternoon. Although a severe threat may develop in areas that become moderately unstable, there is some uncertainty concerning convective coverage due to the presence of the ridge. ...Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8... Mid-level heights are forecast to rise on Saturday and Sunday across the eastern half of the nation, as a large area of high pressure dominates. In the western U.S. over the weekend, a mid-level trough is forecast to move northeastward from the Intermountain West into the northern High Plains. Ahead of the trough, strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening across parts of eastern Montana. In spite of the potential, there is still spatial uncertainty concerning the timing of the trough. The severe threat is expected to shift northeastward into Canada on Sunday. On Monday, southwest mid-level flow is forecast over much of the north-central U.S. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. An isolated severe threat will again be possible, but there is considerable uncertainty on any potential scenario. Read more

MD 1310 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 421...422... FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1310 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Areas affected...parts of southern North Dakota and northern South Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 421...422... Valid 160640Z - 160845Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 421, 422 continues. SUMMARY...An organizing cluster of storms may continue to pose a risk for strong to severe gusts, mostly south of the I-90 corridor of central North Dakota and adjacent portions of South Dakota through 2-3 AM CDT, before perhaps weakening. DISCUSSION...The strongest convection has become better organized in a small cluster now propagating across and east-northeast of the Lemmon SD vicinity around 45 kt. This includes an evolving mesoscale circulation with 50-60 kt westerly rear inflow around its southern periphery, at least around 7-12 thousand+ feet based on recent radar imagery from KBIS. Based on this motion, the complex would pass just south of Jamestown ND by around 10Z. However, more favorably moist and potentially unstable updraft inflow, might remain focused on the nose of a 30-40 kt southerly 850 mb jet, and trend more elevated and out of the southwest with time, as near-surface easterly inflow becomes gradually more stable across the central into eastern Dakotas. This may contribute to a gradual southeastward propagation of stronger lingering convection into northern South Dakota, but it is not clear how long this will continue to be accompanied by an appreciable risk for strong to severe surface gusts. ..Kerr.. 06/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR... LAT...LON 46890202 47050050 47169885 45919829 45099928 45330047 45290162 45530268 45940220 46890202 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0422 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 422 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW MBG TO 5 NNW BIS TO 20 ENE BIS. ..KERR..06/16/25 ATTN...WFO...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 422 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC015-029-043-047-051-085-160940- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BURLEIGH EMMONS KIDDER LOGAN MCINTOSH SIOUX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0422 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 422 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SW Y22 TO 35 W N60 TO 50 ESE MOT. ..KERR..06/16/25 ATTN...WFO...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 422 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC015-029-037-043-047-051-055-057-059-065-085-160840- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BURLEIGH EMMONS GRANT KIDDER LOGAN MCINTOSH MCLEAN MERCER MORTON OLIVER SIOUX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail are expected on Wednesday from the southern Plains to the southern Great Lakes. ...Mid Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley/Southern Great Lakes... A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward through the Upper Midwest on Wednesday. At the surface, a low is forecast to deepen and move northeastward into the western Great Lakes, as a cold front advances eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F will contribute to moderate instability across much of the airmass by afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front, with several convective clusters moving eastward toward the stronger instability during the late afternoon and early evening. Model forecasts suggest that the strongest instability will be located over the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys, while the strongest deep-layer shear will be located in the southern Great Lakes. The disjointed nature of the pattern could mean that the severe threat could remain relatively unfocused. The current thinking is that a broad corridor with an isolated severe threat will develop during the afternoon. Supercells with hail will be possible. However, it appears convection may tend to organize into lines, which would result in the greatest severe threat being wind damage. The severe threat is expected to move eastward into the lower Great Lakes and into part of the Ohio Valley by early to mid evening. ...Southern Plains/Ozarks... The southern extent of a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move through the southern Plains on Wednesday. By afternoon, a cold front is forecast to be located from western Oklahoma to western Missouri. To the southeast of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s F will likely enable moderate instability to develop across much of the moist airmass by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm during the day, convective initiation should take place along and near the front. Multiple convective clusters appear likely to initiate and move toward an axis of moderate instability during the afternoon. NAM forecast soundings at 21Z near the instability axis in Oklahoma and Missouri have 0-6km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.5 to 8 C/km. Supercells with large hail will be possible. However, storm mode may tend to favor multicell lines or clusters with wind-damage potential. The severe threat is expected to continue into the evening, with the overall threat moving southeastward. ..Broyles.. 06/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail are expected on Wednesday from the southern Plains to the southern Great Lakes. ...Mid Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley/Southern Great Lakes... A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward through the Upper Midwest on Wednesday. At the surface, a low is forecast to deepen and move northeastward into the western Great Lakes, as a cold front advances eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F will contribute to moderate instability across much of the airmass by afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front, with several convective clusters moving eastward toward the stronger instability during the late afternoon and early evening. Model forecasts suggest that the strongest instability will be located over the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys, while the strongest deep-layer shear will be located in the southern Great Lakes. The disjointed nature of the pattern could mean that the severe threat could remain relatively unfocused. The current thinking is that a broad corridor with an isolated severe threat will develop during the afternoon. Supercells with hail will be possible. However, it appears convection may tend to organize into lines, which would result in the greatest severe threat being wind damage. The severe threat is expected to move eastward into the lower Great Lakes and into part of the Ohio Valley by early to mid evening. ...Southern Plains/Ozarks... The southern extent of a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move through the southern Plains on Wednesday. By afternoon, a cold front is forecast to be located from western Oklahoma to western Missouri. To the southeast of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s F will likely enable moderate instability to develop across much of the moist airmass by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm during the day, convective initiation should take place along and near the front. Multiple convective clusters appear likely to initiate and move toward an axis of moderate instability during the afternoon. NAM forecast soundings at 21Z near the instability axis in Oklahoma and Missouri have 0-6km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.5 to 8 C/km. Supercells with large hail will be possible. However, storm mode may tend to favor multicell lines or clusters with wind-damage potential. The severe threat is expected to continue into the evening, with the overall threat moving southeastward. ..Broyles.. 06/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail are expected on Wednesday from the southern Plains to the southern Great Lakes. ...Mid Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley/Southern Great Lakes... A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward through the Upper Midwest on Wednesday. At the surface, a low is forecast to deepen and move northeastward into the western Great Lakes, as a cold front advances eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F will contribute to moderate instability across much of the airmass by afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front, with several convective clusters moving eastward toward the stronger instability during the late afternoon and early evening. Model forecasts suggest that the strongest instability will be located over the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys, while the strongest deep-layer shear will be located in the southern Great Lakes. The disjointed nature of the pattern could mean that the severe threat could remain relatively unfocused. The current thinking is that a broad corridor with an isolated severe threat will develop during the afternoon. Supercells with hail will be possible. However, it appears convection may tend to organize into lines, which would result in the greatest severe threat being wind damage. The severe threat is expected to move eastward into the lower Great Lakes and into part of the Ohio Valley by early to mid evening. ...Southern Plains/Ozarks... The southern extent of a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move through the southern Plains on Wednesday. By afternoon, a cold front is forecast to be located from western Oklahoma to western Missouri. To the southeast of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s F will likely enable moderate instability to develop across much of the moist airmass by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm during the day, convective initiation should take place along and near the front. Multiple convective clusters appear likely to initiate and move toward an axis of moderate instability during the afternoon. NAM forecast soundings at 21Z near the instability axis in Oklahoma and Missouri have 0-6km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.5 to 8 C/km. Supercells with large hail will be possible. However, storm mode may tend to favor multicell lines or clusters with wind-damage potential. The severe threat is expected to continue into the evening, with the overall threat moving southeastward. ..Broyles.. 06/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail are expected on Wednesday from the southern Plains to the southern Great Lakes. ...Mid Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley/Southern Great Lakes... A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward through the Upper Midwest on Wednesday. At the surface, a low is forecast to deepen and move northeastward into the western Great Lakes, as a cold front advances eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F will contribute to moderate instability across much of the airmass by afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front, with several convective clusters moving eastward toward the stronger instability during the late afternoon and early evening. Model forecasts suggest that the strongest instability will be located over the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys, while the strongest deep-layer shear will be located in the southern Great Lakes. The disjointed nature of the pattern could mean that the severe threat could remain relatively unfocused. The current thinking is that a broad corridor with an isolated severe threat will develop during the afternoon. Supercells with hail will be possible. However, it appears convection may tend to organize into lines, which would result in the greatest severe threat being wind damage. The severe threat is expected to move eastward into the lower Great Lakes and into part of the Ohio Valley by early to mid evening. ...Southern Plains/Ozarks... The southern extent of a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move through the southern Plains on Wednesday. By afternoon, a cold front is forecast to be located from western Oklahoma to western Missouri. To the southeast of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s F will likely enable moderate instability to develop across much of the moist airmass by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm during the day, convective initiation should take place along and near the front. Multiple convective clusters appear likely to initiate and move toward an axis of moderate instability during the afternoon. NAM forecast soundings at 21Z near the instability axis in Oklahoma and Missouri have 0-6km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.5 to 8 C/km. Supercells with large hail will be possible. However, storm mode may tend to favor multicell lines or clusters with wind-damage potential. The severe threat is expected to continue into the evening, with the overall threat moving southeastward. ..Broyles.. 06/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail are expected on Wednesday from the southern Plains to the southern Great Lakes. ...Mid Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley/Southern Great Lakes... A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward through the Upper Midwest on Wednesday. At the surface, a low is forecast to deepen and move northeastward into the western Great Lakes, as a cold front advances eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F will contribute to moderate instability across much of the airmass by afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front, with several convective clusters moving eastward toward the stronger instability during the late afternoon and early evening. Model forecasts suggest that the strongest instability will be located over the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys, while the strongest deep-layer shear will be located in the southern Great Lakes. The disjointed nature of the pattern could mean that the severe threat could remain relatively unfocused. The current thinking is that a broad corridor with an isolated severe threat will develop during the afternoon. Supercells with hail will be possible. However, it appears convection may tend to organize into lines, which would result in the greatest severe threat being wind damage. The severe threat is expected to move eastward into the lower Great Lakes and into part of the Ohio Valley by early to mid evening. ...Southern Plains/Ozarks... The southern extent of a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move through the southern Plains on Wednesday. By afternoon, a cold front is forecast to be located from western Oklahoma to western Missouri. To the southeast of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s F will likely enable moderate instability to develop across much of the moist airmass by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm during the day, convective initiation should take place along and near the front. Multiple convective clusters appear likely to initiate and move toward an axis of moderate instability during the afternoon. NAM forecast soundings at 21Z near the instability axis in Oklahoma and Missouri have 0-6km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.5 to 8 C/km. Supercells with large hail will be possible. However, storm mode may tend to favor multicell lines or clusters with wind-damage potential. The severe threat is expected to continue into the evening, with the overall threat moving southeastward. ..Broyles.. 06/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail are expected on Wednesday from the southern Plains to the southern Great Lakes. ...Mid Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley/Southern Great Lakes... A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward through the Upper Midwest on Wednesday. At the surface, a low is forecast to deepen and move northeastward into the western Great Lakes, as a cold front advances eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F will contribute to moderate instability across much of the airmass by afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front, with several convective clusters moving eastward toward the stronger instability during the late afternoon and early evening. Model forecasts suggest that the strongest instability will be located over the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys, while the strongest deep-layer shear will be located in the southern Great Lakes. The disjointed nature of the pattern could mean that the severe threat could remain relatively unfocused. The current thinking is that a broad corridor with an isolated severe threat will develop during the afternoon. Supercells with hail will be possible. However, it appears convection may tend to organize into lines, which would result in the greatest severe threat being wind damage. The severe threat is expected to move eastward into the lower Great Lakes and into part of the Ohio Valley by early to mid evening. ...Southern Plains/Ozarks... The southern extent of a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move through the southern Plains on Wednesday. By afternoon, a cold front is forecast to be located from western Oklahoma to western Missouri. To the southeast of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s F will likely enable moderate instability to develop across much of the moist airmass by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm during the day, convective initiation should take place along and near the front. Multiple convective clusters appear likely to initiate and move toward an axis of moderate instability during the afternoon. NAM forecast soundings at 21Z near the instability axis in Oklahoma and Missouri have 0-6km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.5 to 8 C/km. Supercells with large hail will be possible. However, storm mode may tend to favor multicell lines or clusters with wind-damage potential. The severe threat is expected to continue into the evening, with the overall threat moving southeastward. ..Broyles.. 06/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail are expected on Wednesday from the southern Plains to the southern Great Lakes. ...Mid Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley/Southern Great Lakes... A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward through the Upper Midwest on Wednesday. At the surface, a low is forecast to deepen and move northeastward into the western Great Lakes, as a cold front advances eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F will contribute to moderate instability across much of the airmass by afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front, with several convective clusters moving eastward toward the stronger instability during the late afternoon and early evening. Model forecasts suggest that the strongest instability will be located over the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys, while the strongest deep-layer shear will be located in the southern Great Lakes. The disjointed nature of the pattern could mean that the severe threat could remain relatively unfocused. The current thinking is that a broad corridor with an isolated severe threat will develop during the afternoon. Supercells with hail will be possible. However, it appears convection may tend to organize into lines, which would result in the greatest severe threat being wind damage. The severe threat is expected to move eastward into the lower Great Lakes and into part of the Ohio Valley by early to mid evening. ...Southern Plains/Ozarks... The southern extent of a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move through the southern Plains on Wednesday. By afternoon, a cold front is forecast to be located from western Oklahoma to western Missouri. To the southeast of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s F will likely enable moderate instability to develop across much of the moist airmass by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm during the day, convective initiation should take place along and near the front. Multiple convective clusters appear likely to initiate and move toward an axis of moderate instability during the afternoon. NAM forecast soundings at 21Z near the instability axis in Oklahoma and Missouri have 0-6km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.5 to 8 C/km. Supercells with large hail will be possible. However, storm mode may tend to favor multicell lines or clusters with wind-damage potential. The severe threat is expected to continue into the evening, with the overall threat moving southeastward. ..Broyles.. 06/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail are expected on Wednesday from the southern Plains to the southern Great Lakes. ...Mid Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley/Southern Great Lakes... A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward through the Upper Midwest on Wednesday. At the surface, a low is forecast to deepen and move northeastward into the western Great Lakes, as a cold front advances eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F will contribute to moderate instability across much of the airmass by afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front, with several convective clusters moving eastward toward the stronger instability during the late afternoon and early evening. Model forecasts suggest that the strongest instability will be located over the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys, while the strongest deep-layer shear will be located in the southern Great Lakes. The disjointed nature of the pattern could mean that the severe threat could remain relatively unfocused. The current thinking is that a broad corridor with an isolated severe threat will develop during the afternoon. Supercells with hail will be possible. However, it appears convection may tend to organize into lines, which would result in the greatest severe threat being wind damage. The severe threat is expected to move eastward into the lower Great Lakes and into part of the Ohio Valley by early to mid evening. ...Southern Plains/Ozarks... The southern extent of a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move through the southern Plains on Wednesday. By afternoon, a cold front is forecast to be located from western Oklahoma to western Missouri. To the southeast of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s F will likely enable moderate instability to develop across much of the moist airmass by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm during the day, convective initiation should take place along and near the front. Multiple convective clusters appear likely to initiate and move toward an axis of moderate instability during the afternoon. NAM forecast soundings at 21Z near the instability axis in Oklahoma and Missouri have 0-6km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.5 to 8 C/km. Supercells with large hail will be possible. However, storm mode may tend to favor multicell lines or clusters with wind-damage potential. The severe threat is expected to continue into the evening, with the overall threat moving southeastward. ..Broyles.. 06/16/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail are expected on Wednesday from the southern Plains to the southern Great Lakes. ...Mid Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley/Southern Great Lakes... A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward through the Upper Midwest on Wednesday. At the surface, a low is forecast to deepen and move northeastward into the western Great Lakes, as a cold front advances eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F will contribute to moderate instability across much of the airmass by afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front, with several convective clusters moving eastward toward the stronger instability during the late afternoon and early evening. Model forecasts suggest that the strongest instability will be located over the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys, while the strongest deep-layer shear will be located in the southern Great Lakes. The disjointed nature of the pattern could mean that the severe threat could remain relatively unfocused. The current thinking is that a broad corridor with an isolated severe threat will develop during the afternoon. Supercells with hail will be possible. However, it appears convection may tend to organize into lines, which would result in the greatest severe threat being wind damage. The severe threat is expected to move eastward into the lower Great Lakes and into part of the Ohio Valley by early to mid evening. ...Southern Plains/Ozarks... The southern extent of a mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move through the southern Plains on Wednesday. By afternoon, a cold front is forecast to be located from western Oklahoma to western Missouri. To the southeast of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s F will likely enable moderate instability to develop across much of the moist airmass by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm during the day, convective initiation should take place along and near the front. Multiple convective clusters appear likely to initiate and move toward an axis of moderate instability during the afternoon. NAM forecast soundings at 21Z near the instability axis in Oklahoma and Missouri have 0-6km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.5 to 8 C/km. Supercells with large hail will be possible. However, storm mode may tend to favor multicell lines or clusters with wind-damage potential. The severe threat is expected to continue into the evening, with the overall threat moving southeastward. ..Broyles.. 06/16/2025 Read more