Severe Storms

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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR EASTERN ARIZONA... No significant changes in the previous forecast were needed. Enhanced mid-level flow associated with an upper-level short wave trough in conjunction with a deep/well-mixed boundary layer will promote a broad fire weather threat across the Southwest through today. Relative humidity at or below 10 percent and west winds of 20-25 mph atop dry fuels will support Critical fire weather conditions across far eastern Arizona into western New Mexico and Rio Grande Valley. ..Williams.. 06/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies today. Within the base of the trough, a belt of moderate deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Southwest into the southern Rockies. In response to the eastward-moving trough, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central/southern High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High Plains. ...Western NM and eastern AZ... In the wake of poor overnight recoveries, strong diurnal heating/mixing of a dry antecedent air mass west of the dryline will yield widespread single-digit RH across much of AZ and NM during the afternoon. Substantial boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced deep-layer flow, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient peripheral to the lee cyclone, will support 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid the low RH and hot surface temperatures. This combination will favor critical fire-weather conditions atop dry fuels in western NM and far eastern AZ. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR EASTERN ARIZONA... No significant changes in the previous forecast were needed. Enhanced mid-level flow associated with an upper-level short wave trough in conjunction with a deep/well-mixed boundary layer will promote a broad fire weather threat across the Southwest through today. Relative humidity at or below 10 percent and west winds of 20-25 mph atop dry fuels will support Critical fire weather conditions across far eastern Arizona into western New Mexico and Rio Grande Valley. ..Williams.. 06/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies today. Within the base of the trough, a belt of moderate deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Southwest into the southern Rockies. In response to the eastward-moving trough, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central/southern High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High Plains. ...Western NM and eastern AZ... In the wake of poor overnight recoveries, strong diurnal heating/mixing of a dry antecedent air mass west of the dryline will yield widespread single-digit RH across much of AZ and NM during the afternoon. Substantial boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced deep-layer flow, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient peripheral to the lee cyclone, will support 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid the low RH and hot surface temperatures. This combination will favor critical fire-weather conditions atop dry fuels in western NM and far eastern AZ. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR EASTERN ARIZONA... No significant changes in the previous forecast were needed. Enhanced mid-level flow associated with an upper-level short wave trough in conjunction with a deep/well-mixed boundary layer will promote a broad fire weather threat across the Southwest through today. Relative humidity at or below 10 percent and west winds of 20-25 mph atop dry fuels will support Critical fire weather conditions across far eastern Arizona into western New Mexico and Rio Grande Valley. ..Williams.. 06/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies today. Within the base of the trough, a belt of moderate deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Southwest into the southern Rockies. In response to the eastward-moving trough, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central/southern High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High Plains. ...Western NM and eastern AZ... In the wake of poor overnight recoveries, strong diurnal heating/mixing of a dry antecedent air mass west of the dryline will yield widespread single-digit RH across much of AZ and NM during the afternoon. Substantial boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced deep-layer flow, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient peripheral to the lee cyclone, will support 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid the low RH and hot surface temperatures. This combination will favor critical fire-weather conditions atop dry fuels in western NM and far eastern AZ. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR EASTERN ARIZONA... No significant changes in the previous forecast were needed. Enhanced mid-level flow associated with an upper-level short wave trough in conjunction with a deep/well-mixed boundary layer will promote a broad fire weather threat across the Southwest through today. Relative humidity at or below 10 percent and west winds of 20-25 mph atop dry fuels will support Critical fire weather conditions across far eastern Arizona into western New Mexico and Rio Grande Valley. ..Williams.. 06/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies today. Within the base of the trough, a belt of moderate deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Southwest into the southern Rockies. In response to the eastward-moving trough, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central/southern High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High Plains. ...Western NM and eastern AZ... In the wake of poor overnight recoveries, strong diurnal heating/mixing of a dry antecedent air mass west of the dryline will yield widespread single-digit RH across much of AZ and NM during the afternoon. Substantial boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced deep-layer flow, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient peripheral to the lee cyclone, will support 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid the low RH and hot surface temperatures. This combination will favor critical fire-weather conditions atop dry fuels in western NM and far eastern AZ. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR EASTERN ARIZONA... No significant changes in the previous forecast were needed. Enhanced mid-level flow associated with an upper-level short wave trough in conjunction with a deep/well-mixed boundary layer will promote a broad fire weather threat across the Southwest through today. Relative humidity at or below 10 percent and west winds of 20-25 mph atop dry fuels will support Critical fire weather conditions across far eastern Arizona into western New Mexico and Rio Grande Valley. ..Williams.. 06/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies today. Within the base of the trough, a belt of moderate deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Southwest into the southern Rockies. In response to the eastward-moving trough, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central/southern High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High Plains. ...Western NM and eastern AZ... In the wake of poor overnight recoveries, strong diurnal heating/mixing of a dry antecedent air mass west of the dryline will yield widespread single-digit RH across much of AZ and NM during the afternoon. Substantial boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced deep-layer flow, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient peripheral to the lee cyclone, will support 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid the low RH and hot surface temperatures. This combination will favor critical fire-weather conditions atop dry fuels in western NM and far eastern AZ. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR EASTERN ARIZONA... No significant changes in the previous forecast were needed. Enhanced mid-level flow associated with an upper-level short wave trough in conjunction with a deep/well-mixed boundary layer will promote a broad fire weather threat across the Southwest through today. Relative humidity at or below 10 percent and west winds of 20-25 mph atop dry fuels will support Critical fire weather conditions across far eastern Arizona into western New Mexico and Rio Grande Valley. ..Williams.. 06/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies today. Within the base of the trough, a belt of moderate deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Southwest into the southern Rockies. In response to the eastward-moving trough, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central/southern High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High Plains. ...Western NM and eastern AZ... In the wake of poor overnight recoveries, strong diurnal heating/mixing of a dry antecedent air mass west of the dryline will yield widespread single-digit RH across much of AZ and NM during the afternoon. Substantial boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced deep-layer flow, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient peripheral to the lee cyclone, will support 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid the low RH and hot surface temperatures. This combination will favor critical fire-weather conditions atop dry fuels in western NM and far eastern AZ. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR EASTERN ARIZONA... No significant changes in the previous forecast were needed. Enhanced mid-level flow associated with an upper-level short wave trough in conjunction with a deep/well-mixed boundary layer will promote a broad fire weather threat across the Southwest through today. Relative humidity at or below 10 percent and west winds of 20-25 mph atop dry fuels will support Critical fire weather conditions across far eastern Arizona into western New Mexico and Rio Grande Valley. ..Williams.. 06/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies today. Within the base of the trough, a belt of moderate deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Southwest into the southern Rockies. In response to the eastward-moving trough, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central/southern High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High Plains. ...Western NM and eastern AZ... In the wake of poor overnight recoveries, strong diurnal heating/mixing of a dry antecedent air mass west of the dryline will yield widespread single-digit RH across much of AZ and NM during the afternoon. Substantial boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced deep-layer flow, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient peripheral to the lee cyclone, will support 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid the low RH and hot surface temperatures. This combination will favor critical fire-weather conditions atop dry fuels in western NM and far eastern AZ. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR EASTERN ARIZONA... No significant changes in the previous forecast were needed. Enhanced mid-level flow associated with an upper-level short wave trough in conjunction with a deep/well-mixed boundary layer will promote a broad fire weather threat across the Southwest through today. Relative humidity at or below 10 percent and west winds of 20-25 mph atop dry fuels will support Critical fire weather conditions across far eastern Arizona into western New Mexico and Rio Grande Valley. ..Williams.. 06/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies today. Within the base of the trough, a belt of moderate deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Southwest into the southern Rockies. In response to the eastward-moving trough, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central/southern High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High Plains. ...Western NM and eastern AZ... In the wake of poor overnight recoveries, strong diurnal heating/mixing of a dry antecedent air mass west of the dryline will yield widespread single-digit RH across much of AZ and NM during the afternoon. Substantial boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced deep-layer flow, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient peripheral to the lee cyclone, will support 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid the low RH and hot surface temperatures. This combination will favor critical fire-weather conditions atop dry fuels in western NM and far eastern AZ. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR EASTERN ARIZONA... No significant changes in the previous forecast were needed. Enhanced mid-level flow associated with an upper-level short wave trough in conjunction with a deep/well-mixed boundary layer will promote a broad fire weather threat across the Southwest through today. Relative humidity at or below 10 percent and west winds of 20-25 mph atop dry fuels will support Critical fire weather conditions across far eastern Arizona into western New Mexico and Rio Grande Valley. ..Williams.. 06/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies today. Within the base of the trough, a belt of moderate deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Southwest into the southern Rockies. In response to the eastward-moving trough, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central/southern High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High Plains. ...Western NM and eastern AZ... In the wake of poor overnight recoveries, strong diurnal heating/mixing of a dry antecedent air mass west of the dryline will yield widespread single-digit RH across much of AZ and NM during the afternoon. Substantial boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced deep-layer flow, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient peripheral to the lee cyclone, will support 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid the low RH and hot surface temperatures. This combination will favor critical fire-weather conditions atop dry fuels in western NM and far eastern AZ. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR EASTERN ARIZONA... No significant changes in the previous forecast were needed. Enhanced mid-level flow associated with an upper-level short wave trough in conjunction with a deep/well-mixed boundary layer will promote a broad fire weather threat across the Southwest through today. Relative humidity at or below 10 percent and west winds of 20-25 mph atop dry fuels will support Critical fire weather conditions across far eastern Arizona into western New Mexico and Rio Grande Valley. ..Williams.. 06/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies today. Within the base of the trough, a belt of moderate deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Southwest into the southern Rockies. In response to the eastward-moving trough, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central/southern High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High Plains. ...Western NM and eastern AZ... In the wake of poor overnight recoveries, strong diurnal heating/mixing of a dry antecedent air mass west of the dryline will yield widespread single-digit RH across much of AZ and NM during the afternoon. Substantial boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced deep-layer flow, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient peripheral to the lee cyclone, will support 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid the low RH and hot surface temperatures. This combination will favor critical fire-weather conditions atop dry fuels in western NM and far eastern AZ. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR EASTERN ARIZONA... No significant changes in the previous forecast were needed. Enhanced mid-level flow associated with an upper-level short wave trough in conjunction with a deep/well-mixed boundary layer will promote a broad fire weather threat across the Southwest through today. Relative humidity at or below 10 percent and west winds of 20-25 mph atop dry fuels will support Critical fire weather conditions across far eastern Arizona into western New Mexico and Rio Grande Valley. ..Williams.. 06/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies today. Within the base of the trough, a belt of moderate deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Southwest into the southern Rockies. In response to the eastward-moving trough, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central/southern High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High Plains. ...Western NM and eastern AZ... In the wake of poor overnight recoveries, strong diurnal heating/mixing of a dry antecedent air mass west of the dryline will yield widespread single-digit RH across much of AZ and NM during the afternoon. Substantial boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced deep-layer flow, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient peripheral to the lee cyclone, will support 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid the low RH and hot surface temperatures. This combination will favor critical fire-weather conditions atop dry fuels in western NM and far eastern AZ. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR EASTERN ARIZONA... No significant changes in the previous forecast were needed. Enhanced mid-level flow associated with an upper-level short wave trough in conjunction with a deep/well-mixed boundary layer will promote a broad fire weather threat across the Southwest through today. Relative humidity at or below 10 percent and west winds of 20-25 mph atop dry fuels will support Critical fire weather conditions across far eastern Arizona into western New Mexico and Rio Grande Valley. ..Williams.. 06/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies today. Within the base of the trough, a belt of moderate deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Southwest into the southern Rockies. In response to the eastward-moving trough, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central/southern High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High Plains. ...Western NM and eastern AZ... In the wake of poor overnight recoveries, strong diurnal heating/mixing of a dry antecedent air mass west of the dryline will yield widespread single-digit RH across much of AZ and NM during the afternoon. Substantial boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced deep-layer flow, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient peripheral to the lee cyclone, will support 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid the low RH and hot surface temperatures. This combination will favor critical fire-weather conditions atop dry fuels in western NM and far eastern AZ. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR EASTERN ARIZONA... No significant changes in the previous forecast were needed. Enhanced mid-level flow associated with an upper-level short wave trough in conjunction with a deep/well-mixed boundary layer will promote a broad fire weather threat across the Southwest through today. Relative humidity at or below 10 percent and west winds of 20-25 mph atop dry fuels will support Critical fire weather conditions across far eastern Arizona into western New Mexico and Rio Grande Valley. ..Williams.. 06/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies today. Within the base of the trough, a belt of moderate deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Southwest into the southern Rockies. In response to the eastward-moving trough, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central/southern High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High Plains. ...Western NM and eastern AZ... In the wake of poor overnight recoveries, strong diurnal heating/mixing of a dry antecedent air mass west of the dryline will yield widespread single-digit RH across much of AZ and NM during the afternoon. Substantial boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced deep-layer flow, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient peripheral to the lee cyclone, will support 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid the low RH and hot surface temperatures. This combination will favor critical fire-weather conditions atop dry fuels in western NM and far eastern AZ. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR EASTERN ARIZONA... No significant changes in the previous forecast were needed. Enhanced mid-level flow associated with an upper-level short wave trough in conjunction with a deep/well-mixed boundary layer will promote a broad fire weather threat across the Southwest through today. Relative humidity at or below 10 percent and west winds of 20-25 mph atop dry fuels will support Critical fire weather conditions across far eastern Arizona into western New Mexico and Rio Grande Valley. ..Williams.. 06/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies today. Within the base of the trough, a belt of moderate deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Southwest into the southern Rockies. In response to the eastward-moving trough, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central/southern High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High Plains. ...Western NM and eastern AZ... In the wake of poor overnight recoveries, strong diurnal heating/mixing of a dry antecedent air mass west of the dryline will yield widespread single-digit RH across much of AZ and NM during the afternoon. Substantial boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced deep-layer flow, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient peripheral to the lee cyclone, will support 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid the low RH and hot surface temperatures. This combination will favor critical fire-weather conditions atop dry fuels in western NM and far eastern AZ. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR EASTERN ARIZONA... No significant changes in the previous forecast were needed. Enhanced mid-level flow associated with an upper-level short wave trough in conjunction with a deep/well-mixed boundary layer will promote a broad fire weather threat across the Southwest through today. Relative humidity at or below 10 percent and west winds of 20-25 mph atop dry fuels will support Critical fire weather conditions across far eastern Arizona into western New Mexico and Rio Grande Valley. ..Williams.. 06/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies today. Within the base of the trough, a belt of moderate deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Southwest into the southern Rockies. In response to the eastward-moving trough, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central/southern High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High Plains. ...Western NM and eastern AZ... In the wake of poor overnight recoveries, strong diurnal heating/mixing of a dry antecedent air mass west of the dryline will yield widespread single-digit RH across much of AZ and NM during the afternoon. Substantial boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced deep-layer flow, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient peripheral to the lee cyclone, will support 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid the low RH and hot surface temperatures. This combination will favor critical fire-weather conditions atop dry fuels in western NM and far eastern AZ. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR EASTERN ARIZONA... No significant changes in the previous forecast were needed. Enhanced mid-level flow associated with an upper-level short wave trough in conjunction with a deep/well-mixed boundary layer will promote a broad fire weather threat across the Southwest through today. Relative humidity at or below 10 percent and west winds of 20-25 mph atop dry fuels will support Critical fire weather conditions across far eastern Arizona into western New Mexico and Rio Grande Valley. ..Williams.. 06/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies today. Within the base of the trough, a belt of moderate deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Southwest into the southern Rockies. In response to the eastward-moving trough, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central/southern High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High Plains. ...Western NM and eastern AZ... In the wake of poor overnight recoveries, strong diurnal heating/mixing of a dry antecedent air mass west of the dryline will yield widespread single-digit RH across much of AZ and NM during the afternoon. Substantial boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced deep-layer flow, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient peripheral to the lee cyclone, will support 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid the low RH and hot surface temperatures. This combination will favor critical fire-weather conditions atop dry fuels in western NM and far eastern AZ. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR EASTERN ARIZONA... No significant changes in the previous forecast were needed. Enhanced mid-level flow associated with an upper-level short wave trough in conjunction with a deep/well-mixed boundary layer will promote a broad fire weather threat across the Southwest through today. Relative humidity at or below 10 percent and west winds of 20-25 mph atop dry fuels will support Critical fire weather conditions across far eastern Arizona into western New Mexico and Rio Grande Valley. ..Williams.. 06/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will move eastward from the Great Basin into the central Rockies today. Within the base of the trough, a belt of moderate deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the Southwest into the southern Rockies. In response to the eastward-moving trough, a lee cyclone will deepen over the central/southern High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High Plains. ...Western NM and eastern AZ... In the wake of poor overnight recoveries, strong diurnal heating/mixing of a dry antecedent air mass west of the dryline will yield widespread single-digit RH across much of AZ and NM during the afternoon. Substantial boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced deep-layer flow, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient peripheral to the lee cyclone, will support 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid the low RH and hot surface temperatures. This combination will favor critical fire-weather conditions atop dry fuels in western NM and far eastern AZ. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central and southern Plains this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Southern Kansas Northern Oklahoma Northeast Texas Panhandle * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A couple of tornadoes Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing numerous to widespread damaging winds, scattered large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central/southern Plains. The greatest threat for destructive gusts up to 70-100 mph is forecast across portions of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central and southern Plains this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Southern Kansas Northern Oklahoma Northeast Texas Panhandle * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A couple of tornadoes Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing numerous to widespread damaging winds, scattered large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central/southern Plains. The greatest threat for destructive gusts up to 70-100 mph is forecast across portions of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && Read more