Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z Accelerating mid-level westerly flow in advance of an upper-level short wave will support breezy downslope flow across the Columbia Basin. Despite a slight intrusion of Pacific moisture, daytime relative humidity should still fall into the 20-25 percent range. Coupled with breezy west winds and dry fuels, Elevated highlights were maintained for the Columbia Basin where dry fuels will support fire spread. ..Williams.. 06/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... Preceding a deep midlevel low west of British Columbia, a belt of strong midlevel westerly flow will overspread the Cascades. As a result, locally dry/breezy downslope flow will develop in the Columbia Basin during the afternoon. Around 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds (higher in the Cascade Gaps) and 20-25 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z Accelerating mid-level westerly flow in advance of an upper-level short wave will support breezy downslope flow across the Columbia Basin. Despite a slight intrusion of Pacific moisture, daytime relative humidity should still fall into the 20-25 percent range. Coupled with breezy west winds and dry fuels, Elevated highlights were maintained for the Columbia Basin where dry fuels will support fire spread. ..Williams.. 06/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... Preceding a deep midlevel low west of British Columbia, a belt of strong midlevel westerly flow will overspread the Cascades. As a result, locally dry/breezy downslope flow will develop in the Columbia Basin during the afternoon. Around 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds (higher in the Cascade Gaps) and 20-25 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z Accelerating mid-level westerly flow in advance of an upper-level short wave will support breezy downslope flow across the Columbia Basin. Despite a slight intrusion of Pacific moisture, daytime relative humidity should still fall into the 20-25 percent range. Coupled with breezy west winds and dry fuels, Elevated highlights were maintained for the Columbia Basin where dry fuels will support fire spread. ..Williams.. 06/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... Preceding a deep midlevel low west of British Columbia, a belt of strong midlevel westerly flow will overspread the Cascades. As a result, locally dry/breezy downslope flow will develop in the Columbia Basin during the afternoon. Around 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds (higher in the Cascade Gaps) and 20-25 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z Accelerating mid-level westerly flow in advance of an upper-level short wave will support breezy downslope flow across the Columbia Basin. Despite a slight intrusion of Pacific moisture, daytime relative humidity should still fall into the 20-25 percent range. Coupled with breezy west winds and dry fuels, Elevated highlights were maintained for the Columbia Basin where dry fuels will support fire spread. ..Williams.. 06/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... Preceding a deep midlevel low west of British Columbia, a belt of strong midlevel westerly flow will overspread the Cascades. As a result, locally dry/breezy downslope flow will develop in the Columbia Basin during the afternoon. Around 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds (higher in the Cascade Gaps) and 20-25 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z Accelerating mid-level westerly flow in advance of an upper-level short wave will support breezy downslope flow across the Columbia Basin. Despite a slight intrusion of Pacific moisture, daytime relative humidity should still fall into the 20-25 percent range. Coupled with breezy west winds and dry fuels, Elevated highlights were maintained for the Columbia Basin where dry fuels will support fire spread. ..Williams.. 06/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... Preceding a deep midlevel low west of British Columbia, a belt of strong midlevel westerly flow will overspread the Cascades. As a result, locally dry/breezy downslope flow will develop in the Columbia Basin during the afternoon. Around 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds (higher in the Cascade Gaps) and 20-25 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z Accelerating mid-level westerly flow in advance of an upper-level short wave will support breezy downslope flow across the Columbia Basin. Despite a slight intrusion of Pacific moisture, daytime relative humidity should still fall into the 20-25 percent range. Coupled with breezy west winds and dry fuels, Elevated highlights were maintained for the Columbia Basin where dry fuels will support fire spread. ..Williams.. 06/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... Preceding a deep midlevel low west of British Columbia, a belt of strong midlevel westerly flow will overspread the Cascades. As a result, locally dry/breezy downslope flow will develop in the Columbia Basin during the afternoon. Around 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds (higher in the Cascade Gaps) and 20-25 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z Accelerating mid-level westerly flow in advance of an upper-level short wave will support breezy downslope flow across the Columbia Basin. Despite a slight intrusion of Pacific moisture, daytime relative humidity should still fall into the 20-25 percent range. Coupled with breezy west winds and dry fuels, Elevated highlights were maintained for the Columbia Basin where dry fuels will support fire spread. ..Williams.. 06/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... Preceding a deep midlevel low west of British Columbia, a belt of strong midlevel westerly flow will overspread the Cascades. As a result, locally dry/breezy downslope flow will develop in the Columbia Basin during the afternoon. Around 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds (higher in the Cascade Gaps) and 20-25 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z Accelerating mid-level westerly flow in advance of an upper-level short wave will support breezy downslope flow across the Columbia Basin. Despite a slight intrusion of Pacific moisture, daytime relative humidity should still fall into the 20-25 percent range. Coupled with breezy west winds and dry fuels, Elevated highlights were maintained for the Columbia Basin where dry fuels will support fire spread. ..Williams.. 06/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... Preceding a deep midlevel low west of British Columbia, a belt of strong midlevel westerly flow will overspread the Cascades. As a result, locally dry/breezy downslope flow will develop in the Columbia Basin during the afternoon. Around 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds (higher in the Cascade Gaps) and 20-25 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z Accelerating mid-level westerly flow in advance of an upper-level short wave will support breezy downslope flow across the Columbia Basin. Despite a slight intrusion of Pacific moisture, daytime relative humidity should still fall into the 20-25 percent range. Coupled with breezy west winds and dry fuels, Elevated highlights were maintained for the Columbia Basin where dry fuels will support fire spread. ..Williams.. 06/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... Preceding a deep midlevel low west of British Columbia, a belt of strong midlevel westerly flow will overspread the Cascades. As a result, locally dry/breezy downslope flow will develop in the Columbia Basin during the afternoon. Around 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds (higher in the Cascade Gaps) and 20-25 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z Accelerating mid-level westerly flow in advance of an upper-level short wave will support breezy downslope flow across the Columbia Basin. Despite a slight intrusion of Pacific moisture, daytime relative humidity should still fall into the 20-25 percent range. Coupled with breezy west winds and dry fuels, Elevated highlights were maintained for the Columbia Basin where dry fuels will support fire spread. ..Williams.. 06/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... Preceding a deep midlevel low west of British Columbia, a belt of strong midlevel westerly flow will overspread the Cascades. As a result, locally dry/breezy downslope flow will develop in the Columbia Basin during the afternoon. Around 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds (higher in the Cascade Gaps) and 20-25 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z Accelerating mid-level westerly flow in advance of an upper-level short wave will support breezy downslope flow across the Columbia Basin. Despite a slight intrusion of Pacific moisture, daytime relative humidity should still fall into the 20-25 percent range. Coupled with breezy west winds and dry fuels, Elevated highlights were maintained for the Columbia Basin where dry fuels will support fire spread. ..Williams.. 06/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... Preceding a deep midlevel low west of British Columbia, a belt of strong midlevel westerly flow will overspread the Cascades. As a result, locally dry/breezy downslope flow will develop in the Columbia Basin during the afternoon. Around 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds (higher in the Cascade Gaps) and 20-25 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z Accelerating mid-level westerly flow in advance of an upper-level short wave will support breezy downslope flow across the Columbia Basin. Despite a slight intrusion of Pacific moisture, daytime relative humidity should still fall into the 20-25 percent range. Coupled with breezy west winds and dry fuels, Elevated highlights were maintained for the Columbia Basin where dry fuels will support fire spread. ..Williams.. 06/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... Preceding a deep midlevel low west of British Columbia, a belt of strong midlevel westerly flow will overspread the Cascades. As a result, locally dry/breezy downslope flow will develop in the Columbia Basin during the afternoon. Around 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds (higher in the Cascade Gaps) and 20-25 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z Accelerating mid-level westerly flow in advance of an upper-level short wave will support breezy downslope flow across the Columbia Basin. Despite a slight intrusion of Pacific moisture, daytime relative humidity should still fall into the 20-25 percent range. Coupled with breezy west winds and dry fuels, Elevated highlights were maintained for the Columbia Basin where dry fuels will support fire spread. ..Williams.. 06/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... Preceding a deep midlevel low west of British Columbia, a belt of strong midlevel westerly flow will overspread the Cascades. As a result, locally dry/breezy downslope flow will develop in the Columbia Basin during the afternoon. Around 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds (higher in the Cascade Gaps) and 20-25 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z Accelerating mid-level westerly flow in advance of an upper-level short wave will support breezy downslope flow across the Columbia Basin. Despite a slight intrusion of Pacific moisture, daytime relative humidity should still fall into the 20-25 percent range. Coupled with breezy west winds and dry fuels, Elevated highlights were maintained for the Columbia Basin where dry fuels will support fire spread. ..Williams.. 06/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... Preceding a deep midlevel low west of British Columbia, a belt of strong midlevel westerly flow will overspread the Cascades. As a result, locally dry/breezy downslope flow will develop in the Columbia Basin during the afternoon. Around 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds (higher in the Cascade Gaps) and 20-25 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z Accelerating mid-level westerly flow in advance of an upper-level short wave will support breezy downslope flow across the Columbia Basin. Despite a slight intrusion of Pacific moisture, daytime relative humidity should still fall into the 20-25 percent range. Coupled with breezy west winds and dry fuels, Elevated highlights were maintained for the Columbia Basin where dry fuels will support fire spread. ..Williams.. 06/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... Preceding a deep midlevel low west of British Columbia, a belt of strong midlevel westerly flow will overspread the Cascades. As a result, locally dry/breezy downslope flow will develop in the Columbia Basin during the afternoon. Around 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds (higher in the Cascade Gaps) and 20-25 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z Accelerating mid-level westerly flow in advance of an upper-level short wave will support breezy downslope flow across the Columbia Basin. Despite a slight intrusion of Pacific moisture, daytime relative humidity should still fall into the 20-25 percent range. Coupled with breezy west winds and dry fuels, Elevated highlights were maintained for the Columbia Basin where dry fuels will support fire spread. ..Williams.. 06/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... Preceding a deep midlevel low west of British Columbia, a belt of strong midlevel westerly flow will overspread the Cascades. As a result, locally dry/breezy downslope flow will develop in the Columbia Basin during the afternoon. Around 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds (higher in the Cascade Gaps) and 20-25 percent RH will favor elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are forecast on Thursday from parts of New England into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...Parts of New England to the Southeast... A mid-level trough and associated surface cold front will move east from the eastern Great Lakes to the Atlantic coast on Thursday. Ahead of this cold front, upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are forecast from the southeast to New England. Modest heating ahead of this front should result in moderate to strong instability ahead of the cold front Thursday afternoon. Mid-level flow will gradually strengthen from south to north with increasing storm organization/severity expected. The most focused zone of a potentially greater severe weather threat will likely exist from eastern Pennsylvania northward into eastern New York and Vermont. While instability is not forecast to be as strong this far north, strong forcing and strong shear may result in supercells and organized bowing segments with damaging wind gusts as the primary hazard. ...Southwest Montana... Weak height falls are expected across western Montana on Thursday afternoon/evening. Weak instability is forecast to develop across the region as temperatures warm into the 80s. These high-based thunderstorms will be capable of isolated severe wind gusts given the very deeply mixed boundary layer and strong shear across the region. ...Upper Midwest... A southeastward moving mid-level shortwave trough will traverse northern Minnesota and Wisconsin Thursday afternoon. Some strengthening of the low-level jet is anticipated as this shifts southeast with increasing isentropic ascent. Moderate instability within this zone may permit isolated strong to severe storms where isentropic ascent is maximized. Large hail and damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat. ...Northern Plains... Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across the northern Plains Thursday afternoon/evening. Storms may develop along the dryline/surface trough. However, rising heights aloft may keep convective coverage limited across the region. In addition, a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet may result in additional strong to severe storm development across portions of the northern Plains Thursday night. ..Bentley.. 06/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are forecast on Thursday from parts of New England into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...Parts of New England to the Southeast... A mid-level trough and associated surface cold front will move east from the eastern Great Lakes to the Atlantic coast on Thursday. Ahead of this cold front, upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are forecast from the southeast to New England. Modest heating ahead of this front should result in moderate to strong instability ahead of the cold front Thursday afternoon. Mid-level flow will gradually strengthen from south to north with increasing storm organization/severity expected. The most focused zone of a potentially greater severe weather threat will likely exist from eastern Pennsylvania northward into eastern New York and Vermont. While instability is not forecast to be as strong this far north, strong forcing and strong shear may result in supercells and organized bowing segments with damaging wind gusts as the primary hazard. ...Southwest Montana... Weak height falls are expected across western Montana on Thursday afternoon/evening. Weak instability is forecast to develop across the region as temperatures warm into the 80s. These high-based thunderstorms will be capable of isolated severe wind gusts given the very deeply mixed boundary layer and strong shear across the region. ...Upper Midwest... A southeastward moving mid-level shortwave trough will traverse northern Minnesota and Wisconsin Thursday afternoon. Some strengthening of the low-level jet is anticipated as this shifts southeast with increasing isentropic ascent. Moderate instability within this zone may permit isolated strong to severe storms where isentropic ascent is maximized. Large hail and damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat. ...Northern Plains... Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across the northern Plains Thursday afternoon/evening. Storms may develop along the dryline/surface trough. However, rising heights aloft may keep convective coverage limited across the region. In addition, a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet may result in additional strong to severe storm development across portions of the northern Plains Thursday night. ..Bentley.. 06/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are forecast on Thursday from parts of New England into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...Parts of New England to the Southeast... A mid-level trough and associated surface cold front will move east from the eastern Great Lakes to the Atlantic coast on Thursday. Ahead of this cold front, upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are forecast from the southeast to New England. Modest heating ahead of this front should result in moderate to strong instability ahead of the cold front Thursday afternoon. Mid-level flow will gradually strengthen from south to north with increasing storm organization/severity expected. The most focused zone of a potentially greater severe weather threat will likely exist from eastern Pennsylvania northward into eastern New York and Vermont. While instability is not forecast to be as strong this far north, strong forcing and strong shear may result in supercells and organized bowing segments with damaging wind gusts as the primary hazard. ...Southwest Montana... Weak height falls are expected across western Montana on Thursday afternoon/evening. Weak instability is forecast to develop across the region as temperatures warm into the 80s. These high-based thunderstorms will be capable of isolated severe wind gusts given the very deeply mixed boundary layer and strong shear across the region. ...Upper Midwest... A southeastward moving mid-level shortwave trough will traverse northern Minnesota and Wisconsin Thursday afternoon. Some strengthening of the low-level jet is anticipated as this shifts southeast with increasing isentropic ascent. Moderate instability within this zone may permit isolated strong to severe storms where isentropic ascent is maximized. Large hail and damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat. ...Northern Plains... Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across the northern Plains Thursday afternoon/evening. Storms may develop along the dryline/surface trough. However, rising heights aloft may keep convective coverage limited across the region. In addition, a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet may result in additional strong to severe storm development across portions of the northern Plains Thursday night. ..Bentley.. 06/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are forecast on Thursday from parts of New England into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...Parts of New England to the Southeast... A mid-level trough and associated surface cold front will move east from the eastern Great Lakes to the Atlantic coast on Thursday. Ahead of this cold front, upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are forecast from the southeast to New England. Modest heating ahead of this front should result in moderate to strong instability ahead of the cold front Thursday afternoon. Mid-level flow will gradually strengthen from south to north with increasing storm organization/severity expected. The most focused zone of a potentially greater severe weather threat will likely exist from eastern Pennsylvania northward into eastern New York and Vermont. While instability is not forecast to be as strong this far north, strong forcing and strong shear may result in supercells and organized bowing segments with damaging wind gusts as the primary hazard. ...Southwest Montana... Weak height falls are expected across western Montana on Thursday afternoon/evening. Weak instability is forecast to develop across the region as temperatures warm into the 80s. These high-based thunderstorms will be capable of isolated severe wind gusts given the very deeply mixed boundary layer and strong shear across the region. ...Upper Midwest... A southeastward moving mid-level shortwave trough will traverse northern Minnesota and Wisconsin Thursday afternoon. Some strengthening of the low-level jet is anticipated as this shifts southeast with increasing isentropic ascent. Moderate instability within this zone may permit isolated strong to severe storms where isentropic ascent is maximized. Large hail and damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat. ...Northern Plains... Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across the northern Plains Thursday afternoon/evening. Storms may develop along the dryline/surface trough. However, rising heights aloft may keep convective coverage limited across the region. In addition, a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet may result in additional strong to severe storm development across portions of the northern Plains Thursday night. ..Bentley.. 06/17/2025 Read more