Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z ...Day 3-4/Thursday-Friday... An upper-level trough will begin to enter the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Thursday while upper-level ridging shifts eastward into the Plains. Increased mid-level flow atop a dry/well-mixed boundary layer will bring an expansive fire weather threat much of the Great Basin and Colorado Plateau in the form of breezy southwest winds and low relative humidity. A mid-level wind maxima rounding the southern periphery of an upper-level low then pushing into the Pacific Northwest will support even stronger southwest winds of 20-30 mph (locally higher in favored downslope regions) across much of central/southern Utah, northern Arizona and far western Colorado as well as northwestern Nevada where fuels have become increasingly supportive of wildfire spread. 70 percent probability of Critical fire weather conditions have been maintained and expanded within these areas. ...Day 5-8/Saturday-Tuesday... The warm, dry and breezy conditions supportive of wildfire growth in dry fuels will shift southeastward towards the upper Colorado River Basin and northern Arizona by the weekend. Magnitude of winds will wane by early next week as mid-level flow relaxes and shifts northeastward. However, the combination of increasingly dry fuels, drought and lack of rainfall will support an ongoing fire weather threat through Day 8/Tuesday across much of southeastern Utah, northern Arizona and far western Colorado. ...California Central Valley... Dry, post-frontal northerly flow along with low relative humidity and cured grasses will support at least an Elevated fire weather threat on Day 5/Saturday across the Central Valley. ..Williams.. 06/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z ...Day 3-4/Thursday-Friday... An upper-level trough will begin to enter the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Thursday while upper-level ridging shifts eastward into the Plains. Increased mid-level flow atop a dry/well-mixed boundary layer will bring an expansive fire weather threat much of the Great Basin and Colorado Plateau in the form of breezy southwest winds and low relative humidity. A mid-level wind maxima rounding the southern periphery of an upper-level low then pushing into the Pacific Northwest will support even stronger southwest winds of 20-30 mph (locally higher in favored downslope regions) across much of central/southern Utah, northern Arizona and far western Colorado as well as northwestern Nevada where fuels have become increasingly supportive of wildfire spread. 70 percent probability of Critical fire weather conditions have been maintained and expanded within these areas. ...Day 5-8/Saturday-Tuesday... The warm, dry and breezy conditions supportive of wildfire growth in dry fuels will shift southeastward towards the upper Colorado River Basin and northern Arizona by the weekend. Magnitude of winds will wane by early next week as mid-level flow relaxes and shifts northeastward. However, the combination of increasingly dry fuels, drought and lack of rainfall will support an ongoing fire weather threat through Day 8/Tuesday across much of southeastern Utah, northern Arizona and far western Colorado. ...California Central Valley... Dry, post-frontal northerly flow along with low relative humidity and cured grasses will support at least an Elevated fire weather threat on Day 5/Saturday across the Central Valley. ..Williams.. 06/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z ...Day 3-4/Thursday-Friday... An upper-level trough will begin to enter the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Thursday while upper-level ridging shifts eastward into the Plains. Increased mid-level flow atop a dry/well-mixed boundary layer will bring an expansive fire weather threat much of the Great Basin and Colorado Plateau in the form of breezy southwest winds and low relative humidity. A mid-level wind maxima rounding the southern periphery of an upper-level low then pushing into the Pacific Northwest will support even stronger southwest winds of 20-30 mph (locally higher in favored downslope regions) across much of central/southern Utah, northern Arizona and far western Colorado as well as northwestern Nevada where fuels have become increasingly supportive of wildfire spread. 70 percent probability of Critical fire weather conditions have been maintained and expanded within these areas. ...Day 5-8/Saturday-Tuesday... The warm, dry and breezy conditions supportive of wildfire growth in dry fuels will shift southeastward towards the upper Colorado River Basin and northern Arizona by the weekend. Magnitude of winds will wane by early next week as mid-level flow relaxes and shifts northeastward. However, the combination of increasingly dry fuels, drought and lack of rainfall will support an ongoing fire weather threat through Day 8/Tuesday across much of southeastern Utah, northern Arizona and far western Colorado. ...California Central Valley... Dry, post-frontal northerly flow along with low relative humidity and cured grasses will support at least an Elevated fire weather threat on Day 5/Saturday across the Central Valley. ..Williams.. 06/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z ...Day 3-4/Thursday-Friday... An upper-level trough will begin to enter the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Thursday while upper-level ridging shifts eastward into the Plains. Increased mid-level flow atop a dry/well-mixed boundary layer will bring an expansive fire weather threat much of the Great Basin and Colorado Plateau in the form of breezy southwest winds and low relative humidity. A mid-level wind maxima rounding the southern periphery of an upper-level low then pushing into the Pacific Northwest will support even stronger southwest winds of 20-30 mph (locally higher in favored downslope regions) across much of central/southern Utah, northern Arizona and far western Colorado as well as northwestern Nevada where fuels have become increasingly supportive of wildfire spread. 70 percent probability of Critical fire weather conditions have been maintained and expanded within these areas. ...Day 5-8/Saturday-Tuesday... The warm, dry and breezy conditions supportive of wildfire growth in dry fuels will shift southeastward towards the upper Colorado River Basin and northern Arizona by the weekend. Magnitude of winds will wane by early next week as mid-level flow relaxes and shifts northeastward. However, the combination of increasingly dry fuels, drought and lack of rainfall will support an ongoing fire weather threat through Day 8/Tuesday across much of southeastern Utah, northern Arizona and far western Colorado. ...California Central Valley... Dry, post-frontal northerly flow along with low relative humidity and cured grasses will support at least an Elevated fire weather threat on Day 5/Saturday across the Central Valley. ..Williams.. 06/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z ...Day 3-4/Thursday-Friday... An upper-level trough will begin to enter the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Thursday while upper-level ridging shifts eastward into the Plains. Increased mid-level flow atop a dry/well-mixed boundary layer will bring an expansive fire weather threat much of the Great Basin and Colorado Plateau in the form of breezy southwest winds and low relative humidity. A mid-level wind maxima rounding the southern periphery of an upper-level low then pushing into the Pacific Northwest will support even stronger southwest winds of 20-30 mph (locally higher in favored downslope regions) across much of central/southern Utah, northern Arizona and far western Colorado as well as northwestern Nevada where fuels have become increasingly supportive of wildfire spread. 70 percent probability of Critical fire weather conditions have been maintained and expanded within these areas. ...Day 5-8/Saturday-Tuesday... The warm, dry and breezy conditions supportive of wildfire growth in dry fuels will shift southeastward towards the upper Colorado River Basin and northern Arizona by the weekend. Magnitude of winds will wane by early next week as mid-level flow relaxes and shifts northeastward. However, the combination of increasingly dry fuels, drought and lack of rainfall will support an ongoing fire weather threat through Day 8/Tuesday across much of southeastern Utah, northern Arizona and far western Colorado. ...California Central Valley... Dry, post-frontal northerly flow along with low relative humidity and cured grasses will support at least an Elevated fire weather threat on Day 5/Saturday across the Central Valley. ..Williams.. 06/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z ...Day 3-4/Thursday-Friday... An upper-level trough will begin to enter the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Thursday while upper-level ridging shifts eastward into the Plains. Increased mid-level flow atop a dry/well-mixed boundary layer will bring an expansive fire weather threat much of the Great Basin and Colorado Plateau in the form of breezy southwest winds and low relative humidity. A mid-level wind maxima rounding the southern periphery of an upper-level low then pushing into the Pacific Northwest will support even stronger southwest winds of 20-30 mph (locally higher in favored downslope regions) across much of central/southern Utah, northern Arizona and far western Colorado as well as northwestern Nevada where fuels have become increasingly supportive of wildfire spread. 70 percent probability of Critical fire weather conditions have been maintained and expanded within these areas. ...Day 5-8/Saturday-Tuesday... The warm, dry and breezy conditions supportive of wildfire growth in dry fuels will shift southeastward towards the upper Colorado River Basin and northern Arizona by the weekend. Magnitude of winds will wane by early next week as mid-level flow relaxes and shifts northeastward. However, the combination of increasingly dry fuels, drought and lack of rainfall will support an ongoing fire weather threat through Day 8/Tuesday across much of southeastern Utah, northern Arizona and far western Colorado. ...California Central Valley... Dry, post-frontal northerly flow along with low relative humidity and cured grasses will support at least an Elevated fire weather threat on Day 5/Saturday across the Central Valley. ..Williams.. 06/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z ...Day 3-4/Thursday-Friday... An upper-level trough will begin to enter the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Thursday while upper-level ridging shifts eastward into the Plains. Increased mid-level flow atop a dry/well-mixed boundary layer will bring an expansive fire weather threat much of the Great Basin and Colorado Plateau in the form of breezy southwest winds and low relative humidity. A mid-level wind maxima rounding the southern periphery of an upper-level low then pushing into the Pacific Northwest will support even stronger southwest winds of 20-30 mph (locally higher in favored downslope regions) across much of central/southern Utah, northern Arizona and far western Colorado as well as northwestern Nevada where fuels have become increasingly supportive of wildfire spread. 70 percent probability of Critical fire weather conditions have been maintained and expanded within these areas. ...Day 5-8/Saturday-Tuesday... The warm, dry and breezy conditions supportive of wildfire growth in dry fuels will shift southeastward towards the upper Colorado River Basin and northern Arizona by the weekend. Magnitude of winds will wane by early next week as mid-level flow relaxes and shifts northeastward. However, the combination of increasingly dry fuels, drought and lack of rainfall will support an ongoing fire weather threat through Day 8/Tuesday across much of southeastern Utah, northern Arizona and far western Colorado. ...California Central Valley... Dry, post-frontal northerly flow along with low relative humidity and cured grasses will support at least an Elevated fire weather threat on Day 5/Saturday across the Central Valley. ..Williams.. 06/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z ...Day 3-4/Thursday-Friday... An upper-level trough will begin to enter the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Thursday while upper-level ridging shifts eastward into the Plains. Increased mid-level flow atop a dry/well-mixed boundary layer will bring an expansive fire weather threat much of the Great Basin and Colorado Plateau in the form of breezy southwest winds and low relative humidity. A mid-level wind maxima rounding the southern periphery of an upper-level low then pushing into the Pacific Northwest will support even stronger southwest winds of 20-30 mph (locally higher in favored downslope regions) across much of central/southern Utah, northern Arizona and far western Colorado as well as northwestern Nevada where fuels have become increasingly supportive of wildfire spread. 70 percent probability of Critical fire weather conditions have been maintained and expanded within these areas. ...Day 5-8/Saturday-Tuesday... The warm, dry and breezy conditions supportive of wildfire growth in dry fuels will shift southeastward towards the upper Colorado River Basin and northern Arizona by the weekend. Magnitude of winds will wane by early next week as mid-level flow relaxes and shifts northeastward. However, the combination of increasingly dry fuels, drought and lack of rainfall will support an ongoing fire weather threat through Day 8/Tuesday across much of southeastern Utah, northern Arizona and far western Colorado. ...California Central Valley... Dry, post-frontal northerly flow along with low relative humidity and cured grasses will support at least an Elevated fire weather threat on Day 5/Saturday across the Central Valley. ..Williams.. 06/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1334 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 428... FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING...SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...FRONT RANGE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1334 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Areas affected...Southeast Wyoming...southern Nebraska Panhandle...Front Range into northeast Colorado Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 428... Valid 172025Z - 172200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 428 continues. SUMMARY...Severe wind gust potential increasing just east of the I-25 corridor and along I-80 in southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. How far east this activity can maintain intensity is not clear. DISCUSSION...Linear convection has increased in intensity east of Cheyenne and along the I-25 corridor. The most organized wind signal, per KCYS velocity data, is moving roughly along I-80 east of Cheyenne. A 69 mph wind gusts was measured with this activity. Additionally, KFTG is showing a modest increase in wind potential just east of the I-25 corridor. Areas of the Nebraska Panhandle into northeast Colorado did receive longer periods of insolation this afternoon. Farther east, outflow from morning convection has modified a small degree. While severe wind gusts will become more probable in the short term, the eastward extent of this threat is not clear given at least pockets of MLCIN remaining. ..Wendt.. 06/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 39900362 39720505 41600477 41490266 41100241 40320257 39900362 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 1333 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 428... FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO THE FRONT RANGE
Mesoscale Discussion 1333 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Areas affected...Southeast Wyoming into the Front Range Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 428... Valid 171855Z - 172100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 428 continues. SUMMARY...Large to very-large hail remains possible with supercells. Severe wind gusts are also possible, particularly with any upscale growth that can move off the terrain. A tornado or two may still occur with the most organized supercells. DISCUSSION...The back edge of mid-level ascent with a shortwave trough is now roughly along the Colorado western slope. Continued moist upslope flow and lift from the trough will promote persistent convective initiation along the higher terrain through the afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate effective shear (stronger with southward extent) should keep storm mode supercellular. With slightly weaker shear and greater storm coverage west of Cheyenne and Fort Collins, these areas would be preferred for eventual upscale growth. Low-level stratus has eroded east of these storms as well which will only further support moving off the terrain over the next few hours. Severe winds and large hail would be possible. Farther south, near Pueblo, the low-level stratus has remained. Storms will likely remain near the terrain as a result. Aside from hail and severe winds, a tornado or two will also be possible. Low-level hodographs are not overly large per regional VAD data, but low-level easterly winds, supercell modes, and numerous storm-scale boundaries to interact with will allow for some risk. One tornado has already been observed northwest of Cheyenne. ..Wendt.. 06/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 40840587 41920589 42290491 42180392 40130335 39350296 38900286 38530299 38210417 38260531 38670575 40840587 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0429 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0429 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0429 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0429 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0429 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0429 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0428 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 428 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W RTN TO 40 ENE ALS TO 45 W PUB TO 25 WNW COS TO 35 NW COS TO 25 WNW DEN TO 20 WSW CYS TO 25 NE LAR TO 30 SE CPR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1334 ..WENDT..06/17/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 428 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-025-027-031-035-039-041-043-055-059-071-073-075-087- 089-101-119-121-123-172140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE CROWLEY CUSTER DENVER DOUGLAS ELBERT EL PASO FREMONT HUERFANO JEFFERSON LAS ANIMAS LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN OTERO PUEBLO TELLER WASHINGTON WELD NEC007-033-105-123-157-165-172140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER CHEYENNE KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SIOUX Read more

WW 0428 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 428 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W RTN TO 40 ENE ALS TO 45 W PUB TO 25 WNW COS TO 35 NW COS TO 25 WNW DEN TO 20 WSW CYS TO 25 NE LAR TO 30 SE CPR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1334 ..WENDT..06/17/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 428 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-025-027-031-035-039-041-043-055-059-071-073-075-087- 089-101-119-121-123-172140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE CROWLEY CUSTER DENVER DOUGLAS ELBERT EL PASO FREMONT HUERFANO JEFFERSON LAS ANIMAS LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN OTERO PUEBLO TELLER WASHINGTON WELD NEC007-033-105-123-157-165-172140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER CHEYENNE KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SIOUX Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing numerous to widespread damaging winds, scattered large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central/southern Plains. The greatest threat for destructive gusts up to 70-100 mph is forecast across portions of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...20z Update Southern Plains... A convective reinforced outflow boundary across west-central KS continues to slowly push southward across southwest portions of the state to near the OK border. This boundary will likely serve as the focus for robust convective development this afternoon and evening, as indicated by elevated development farther east. To the north of the primary surface heating, this initial activity may quickly grow upscale into one or more clusters before spreading southeast and becoming more surface-based with time. Large to very large hail, damaging gusts and some tornado risk are likely with these storms. Across northwest OK, and the northeastern TX Panhandle, additional, more isolated storms are likely this afternoon along the southern most modified outflow and pseudo-triple point area. Surface obs and 18z AMA/LMN RAOBs show substantial low-level shear, large buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear for supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes across northern OK and far southern KS. Current expectations are still that initially cellular convection will rapidly develop and pose a severe risk through the afternoon, before growing upscale as it interacts with additional storms over KS this evening. One or more organized bows/clusters, capable of very strong damaging gusts, hail and a couple of tornadoes are likely this evening. Will maintain the MDT risk with minimal trimming on the northwest side near the advancing outflow. ...Southeast to the Mid Atlantic... Several clusters of strong to occasional severe storms are ongoing and expected to continue this afternoon/evening. Moderate buoyancy within a very moist air mass could support occasional damaging gusts from heavily water-loaded downdrafts. Some degree of organization into loose clusters could continue, especially across AL where storms have shown slightly stronger cold pools. However, the overall potential for storm organization is low with vertical shear remaining quite weak. The severe risk should begin to weaken through the early evening. Some minor trimming was made to the severe probabilities along the western edge of the MRGL. ...Rockies... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, will continue this afternoon. Confidence is highest in the severe threat remaining near the I-25 corridor where more substantial heating has taken place. Hail remains the primary risk, though a few damaging gusts and a brief tornado remain possible. ..Lyons.. 06/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/ ...KS/OK... Overnight and morning thunderstorm activity has significantly changed the overall forecast for severe storms across the central Plains for today. A severe MCS overspread parts of southeast KS and northeast OK a few hours ago, pushing an outflow boundary southward into central OK. Strong heating is occurring to the north of this boundary, where rapid destabilization is expected this afternoon across northern OK/southern KS. A consensus of 12z model guidance shows this to be the corridor of rapid and intense thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings show substantial low-level shear, steep lapse rates, and sufficient winds aloft for supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Relatively warm temperatures in the 850-700mb layer are a negative factor for a greater tornado concern. Through the evening, congealing outflows will likely result in a larger MCS posing a risk of widespread damaging wind gusts into northeast OK and perhaps parts of northwest AR/southwest MO. ...Eastern CO/Southeast WY... Overnight storms also impacted the forecast for this region today. Easterly low-level winds (enhanced by outflow) have transported moisture westward into the foothills, where rapid thunderstorm development is expected by early afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and seasonably cool mid-level temperatures, coupled with sufficiently strong westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of very large hail in the strongest storms. A tornado or two is also possible. It is unclear how far east this activity can make it into the adjacent Plains, where persistent low-clouds and more stable conditions will likely prevail. Refer to MCD #1330 for further details. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing numerous to widespread damaging winds, scattered large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central/southern Plains. The greatest threat for destructive gusts up to 70-100 mph is forecast across portions of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...20z Update Southern Plains... A convective reinforced outflow boundary across west-central KS continues to slowly push southward across southwest portions of the state to near the OK border. This boundary will likely serve as the focus for robust convective development this afternoon and evening, as indicated by elevated development farther east. To the north of the primary surface heating, this initial activity may quickly grow upscale into one or more clusters before spreading southeast and becoming more surface-based with time. Large to very large hail, damaging gusts and some tornado risk are likely with these storms. Across northwest OK, and the northeastern TX Panhandle, additional, more isolated storms are likely this afternoon along the southern most modified outflow and pseudo-triple point area. Surface obs and 18z AMA/LMN RAOBs show substantial low-level shear, large buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear for supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes across northern OK and far southern KS. Current expectations are still that initially cellular convection will rapidly develop and pose a severe risk through the afternoon, before growing upscale as it interacts with additional storms over KS this evening. One or more organized bows/clusters, capable of very strong damaging gusts, hail and a couple of tornadoes are likely this evening. Will maintain the MDT risk with minimal trimming on the northwest side near the advancing outflow. ...Southeast to the Mid Atlantic... Several clusters of strong to occasional severe storms are ongoing and expected to continue this afternoon/evening. Moderate buoyancy within a very moist air mass could support occasional damaging gusts from heavily water-loaded downdrafts. Some degree of organization into loose clusters could continue, especially across AL where storms have shown slightly stronger cold pools. However, the overall potential for storm organization is low with vertical shear remaining quite weak. The severe risk should begin to weaken through the early evening. Some minor trimming was made to the severe probabilities along the western edge of the MRGL. ...Rockies... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, will continue this afternoon. Confidence is highest in the severe threat remaining near the I-25 corridor where more substantial heating has taken place. Hail remains the primary risk, though a few damaging gusts and a brief tornado remain possible. ..Lyons.. 06/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/ ...KS/OK... Overnight and morning thunderstorm activity has significantly changed the overall forecast for severe storms across the central Plains for today. A severe MCS overspread parts of southeast KS and northeast OK a few hours ago, pushing an outflow boundary southward into central OK. Strong heating is occurring to the north of this boundary, where rapid destabilization is expected this afternoon across northern OK/southern KS. A consensus of 12z model guidance shows this to be the corridor of rapid and intense thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings show substantial low-level shear, steep lapse rates, and sufficient winds aloft for supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Relatively warm temperatures in the 850-700mb layer are a negative factor for a greater tornado concern. Through the evening, congealing outflows will likely result in a larger MCS posing a risk of widespread damaging wind gusts into northeast OK and perhaps parts of northwest AR/southwest MO. ...Eastern CO/Southeast WY... Overnight storms also impacted the forecast for this region today. Easterly low-level winds (enhanced by outflow) have transported moisture westward into the foothills, where rapid thunderstorm development is expected by early afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and seasonably cool mid-level temperatures, coupled with sufficiently strong westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of very large hail in the strongest storms. A tornado or two is also possible. It is unclear how far east this activity can make it into the adjacent Plains, where persistent low-clouds and more stable conditions will likely prevail. Refer to MCD #1330 for further details. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing numerous to widespread damaging winds, scattered large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central/southern Plains. The greatest threat for destructive gusts up to 70-100 mph is forecast across portions of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...20z Update Southern Plains... A convective reinforced outflow boundary across west-central KS continues to slowly push southward across southwest portions of the state to near the OK border. This boundary will likely serve as the focus for robust convective development this afternoon and evening, as indicated by elevated development farther east. To the north of the primary surface heating, this initial activity may quickly grow upscale into one or more clusters before spreading southeast and becoming more surface-based with time. Large to very large hail, damaging gusts and some tornado risk are likely with these storms. Across northwest OK, and the northeastern TX Panhandle, additional, more isolated storms are likely this afternoon along the southern most modified outflow and pseudo-triple point area. Surface obs and 18z AMA/LMN RAOBs show substantial low-level shear, large buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear for supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes across northern OK and far southern KS. Current expectations are still that initially cellular convection will rapidly develop and pose a severe risk through the afternoon, before growing upscale as it interacts with additional storms over KS this evening. One or more organized bows/clusters, capable of very strong damaging gusts, hail and a couple of tornadoes are likely this evening. Will maintain the MDT risk with minimal trimming on the northwest side near the advancing outflow. ...Southeast to the Mid Atlantic... Several clusters of strong to occasional severe storms are ongoing and expected to continue this afternoon/evening. Moderate buoyancy within a very moist air mass could support occasional damaging gusts from heavily water-loaded downdrafts. Some degree of organization into loose clusters could continue, especially across AL where storms have shown slightly stronger cold pools. However, the overall potential for storm organization is low with vertical shear remaining quite weak. The severe risk should begin to weaken through the early evening. Some minor trimming was made to the severe probabilities along the western edge of the MRGL. ...Rockies... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, will continue this afternoon. Confidence is highest in the severe threat remaining near the I-25 corridor where more substantial heating has taken place. Hail remains the primary risk, though a few damaging gusts and a brief tornado remain possible. ..Lyons.. 06/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/ ...KS/OK... Overnight and morning thunderstorm activity has significantly changed the overall forecast for severe storms across the central Plains for today. A severe MCS overspread parts of southeast KS and northeast OK a few hours ago, pushing an outflow boundary southward into central OK. Strong heating is occurring to the north of this boundary, where rapid destabilization is expected this afternoon across northern OK/southern KS. A consensus of 12z model guidance shows this to be the corridor of rapid and intense thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings show substantial low-level shear, steep lapse rates, and sufficient winds aloft for supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Relatively warm temperatures in the 850-700mb layer are a negative factor for a greater tornado concern. Through the evening, congealing outflows will likely result in a larger MCS posing a risk of widespread damaging wind gusts into northeast OK and perhaps parts of northwest AR/southwest MO. ...Eastern CO/Southeast WY... Overnight storms also impacted the forecast for this region today. Easterly low-level winds (enhanced by outflow) have transported moisture westward into the foothills, where rapid thunderstorm development is expected by early afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and seasonably cool mid-level temperatures, coupled with sufficiently strong westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of very large hail in the strongest storms. A tornado or two is also possible. It is unclear how far east this activity can make it into the adjacent Plains, where persistent low-clouds and more stable conditions will likely prevail. Refer to MCD #1330 for further details. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing numerous to widespread damaging winds, scattered large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central/southern Plains. The greatest threat for destructive gusts up to 70-100 mph is forecast across portions of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...20z Update Southern Plains... A convective reinforced outflow boundary across west-central KS continues to slowly push southward across southwest portions of the state to near the OK border. This boundary will likely serve as the focus for robust convective development this afternoon and evening, as indicated by elevated development farther east. To the north of the primary surface heating, this initial activity may quickly grow upscale into one or more clusters before spreading southeast and becoming more surface-based with time. Large to very large hail, damaging gusts and some tornado risk are likely with these storms. Across northwest OK, and the northeastern TX Panhandle, additional, more isolated storms are likely this afternoon along the southern most modified outflow and pseudo-triple point area. Surface obs and 18z AMA/LMN RAOBs show substantial low-level shear, large buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear for supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes across northern OK and far southern KS. Current expectations are still that initially cellular convection will rapidly develop and pose a severe risk through the afternoon, before growing upscale as it interacts with additional storms over KS this evening. One or more organized bows/clusters, capable of very strong damaging gusts, hail and a couple of tornadoes are likely this evening. Will maintain the MDT risk with minimal trimming on the northwest side near the advancing outflow. ...Southeast to the Mid Atlantic... Several clusters of strong to occasional severe storms are ongoing and expected to continue this afternoon/evening. Moderate buoyancy within a very moist air mass could support occasional damaging gusts from heavily water-loaded downdrafts. Some degree of organization into loose clusters could continue, especially across AL where storms have shown slightly stronger cold pools. However, the overall potential for storm organization is low with vertical shear remaining quite weak. The severe risk should begin to weaken through the early evening. Some minor trimming was made to the severe probabilities along the western edge of the MRGL. ...Rockies... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, will continue this afternoon. Confidence is highest in the severe threat remaining near the I-25 corridor where more substantial heating has taken place. Hail remains the primary risk, though a few damaging gusts and a brief tornado remain possible. ..Lyons.. 06/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/ ...KS/OK... Overnight and morning thunderstorm activity has significantly changed the overall forecast for severe storms across the central Plains for today. A severe MCS overspread parts of southeast KS and northeast OK a few hours ago, pushing an outflow boundary southward into central OK. Strong heating is occurring to the north of this boundary, where rapid destabilization is expected this afternoon across northern OK/southern KS. A consensus of 12z model guidance shows this to be the corridor of rapid and intense thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings show substantial low-level shear, steep lapse rates, and sufficient winds aloft for supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Relatively warm temperatures in the 850-700mb layer are a negative factor for a greater tornado concern. Through the evening, congealing outflows will likely result in a larger MCS posing a risk of widespread damaging wind gusts into northeast OK and perhaps parts of northwest AR/southwest MO. ...Eastern CO/Southeast WY... Overnight storms also impacted the forecast for this region today. Easterly low-level winds (enhanced by outflow) have transported moisture westward into the foothills, where rapid thunderstorm development is expected by early afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and seasonably cool mid-level temperatures, coupled with sufficiently strong westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of very large hail in the strongest storms. A tornado or two is also possible. It is unclear how far east this activity can make it into the adjacent Plains, where persistent low-clouds and more stable conditions will likely prevail. Refer to MCD #1330 for further details. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing numerous to widespread damaging winds, scattered large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central/southern Plains. The greatest threat for destructive gusts up to 70-100 mph is forecast across portions of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...20z Update Southern Plains... A convective reinforced outflow boundary across west-central KS continues to slowly push southward across southwest portions of the state to near the OK border. This boundary will likely serve as the focus for robust convective development this afternoon and evening, as indicated by elevated development farther east. To the north of the primary surface heating, this initial activity may quickly grow upscale into one or more clusters before spreading southeast and becoming more surface-based with time. Large to very large hail, damaging gusts and some tornado risk are likely with these storms. Across northwest OK, and the northeastern TX Panhandle, additional, more isolated storms are likely this afternoon along the southern most modified outflow and pseudo-triple point area. Surface obs and 18z AMA/LMN RAOBs show substantial low-level shear, large buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear for supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes across northern OK and far southern KS. Current expectations are still that initially cellular convection will rapidly develop and pose a severe risk through the afternoon, before growing upscale as it interacts with additional storms over KS this evening. One or more organized bows/clusters, capable of very strong damaging gusts, hail and a couple of tornadoes are likely this evening. Will maintain the MDT risk with minimal trimming on the northwest side near the advancing outflow. ...Southeast to the Mid Atlantic... Several clusters of strong to occasional severe storms are ongoing and expected to continue this afternoon/evening. Moderate buoyancy within a very moist air mass could support occasional damaging gusts from heavily water-loaded downdrafts. Some degree of organization into loose clusters could continue, especially across AL where storms have shown slightly stronger cold pools. However, the overall potential for storm organization is low with vertical shear remaining quite weak. The severe risk should begin to weaken through the early evening. Some minor trimming was made to the severe probabilities along the western edge of the MRGL. ...Rockies... Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells, will continue this afternoon. Confidence is highest in the severe threat remaining near the I-25 corridor where more substantial heating has taken place. Hail remains the primary risk, though a few damaging gusts and a brief tornado remain possible. ..Lyons.. 06/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/ ...KS/OK... Overnight and morning thunderstorm activity has significantly changed the overall forecast for severe storms across the central Plains for today. A severe MCS overspread parts of southeast KS and northeast OK a few hours ago, pushing an outflow boundary southward into central OK. Strong heating is occurring to the north of this boundary, where rapid destabilization is expected this afternoon across northern OK/southern KS. A consensus of 12z model guidance shows this to be the corridor of rapid and intense thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings show substantial low-level shear, steep lapse rates, and sufficient winds aloft for supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Relatively warm temperatures in the 850-700mb layer are a negative factor for a greater tornado concern. Through the evening, congealing outflows will likely result in a larger MCS posing a risk of widespread damaging wind gusts into northeast OK and perhaps parts of northwest AR/southwest MO. ...Eastern CO/Southeast WY... Overnight storms also impacted the forecast for this region today. Easterly low-level winds (enhanced by outflow) have transported moisture westward into the foothills, where rapid thunderstorm development is expected by early afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and seasonably cool mid-level temperatures, coupled with sufficiently strong westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of very large hail in the strongest storms. A tornado or two is also possible. It is unclear how far east this activity can make it into the adjacent Plains, where persistent low-clouds and more stable conditions will likely prevail. Refer to MCD #1330 for further details. Read more