Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are forecast on Thursday from parts of New England into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the lower Great Lakes region into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Thursday. A surface low will move across parts of Quebec during the day and evening, as a trailing cold front moves across parts of New England, the Mid Atlantic, and Carolinas/Southeast. An upstream midlevel shortwave trough will move across parts of northern MN into WI and upper MI by evening. An amplified mid/upper-level trough will move gradually eastward across the western CONUS, as an upper-level ridge initially over the southern Rockies begins to break down and shift eastward. In response to this trough, a surface low will gradually deepen across the northern High Plains. ...New England into the Mid Atlantic/Southeast... Relatively rich low-level moisture will stream northward ahead of the front approaching New England and the Mid Atlantic during the day on Thursday. Moderate buoyancy may develop as far north as northern NY/VT, with pockets of stronger heating/destabilization farther south into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas/Southeast. The strongest deep-layer flow/shear is still expected from PA/northern NJ northward into New England, where wind profiles will be conditionally supportive of supercells and organized bowing segments. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado could accompany the strongest storms in this area. Farther south into the southern Mid Atlantic and Carolinas, deep-layer flow will be somewhat unidirectional and weaker, but still sufficient for some organized convection. Clusters capable of producing scattered wind damage will be possible, especially in areas where stronger diurnal heating/destabilization occurs. Deep-layer flow will be rather weak into parts of MS/AL/GA/SC, but the glancing influence of the mid/upper-level trough and relatively large MLCAPE and PW will support storms capable of producing isolated strong/damaging gusts. ...Southwest MT and vicinity... Weak midlevel height falls are still expected across parts of western MT Thursday afternoon/evening, in response to the approaching mid/upper-level trough. Low-level moisture will remain limited, but strong diurnal heating will support high-based storm development. Steep low-level lapse rates and relatively strong midlevel flow will result in potential for isolated severe gusts during the afternoon and evening as convection spreads eastward. ...Upper Midwest... Low-level warm advection related to the southeastward-moving midlevel shortwave trough may aid in storm development on Thursday from northern MN into parts of WI and upper MI. Moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear will support potential for a few stronger cells/clusters capable of producing large hail and damaging wind. Additional strong to locally severe storms may redevelop later Thursday night across parts of this region, in response to a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. ...Northern Plains... Diurnal heating of an increasingly moist airmass will result in moderate to strong buoyancy across parts of the northern Plains by Thursday afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized storms, but diurnal storm development remains highly uncertain amid background midlevel height rises associated with a building ridge. Development of a storm or two cannot be ruled out through evening near a surface trough/weak dryline. Elevated storm coverage may increase somewhat Thursday night in response to a strengthening low-level jet, which could pose a threat of hail and localized strong gusts. ..Dean.. 06/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are forecast on Thursday from parts of New England into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the lower Great Lakes region into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Thursday. A surface low will move across parts of Quebec during the day and evening, as a trailing cold front moves across parts of New England, the Mid Atlantic, and Carolinas/Southeast. An upstream midlevel shortwave trough will move across parts of northern MN into WI and upper MI by evening. An amplified mid/upper-level trough will move gradually eastward across the western CONUS, as an upper-level ridge initially over the southern Rockies begins to break down and shift eastward. In response to this trough, a surface low will gradually deepen across the northern High Plains. ...New England into the Mid Atlantic/Southeast... Relatively rich low-level moisture will stream northward ahead of the front approaching New England and the Mid Atlantic during the day on Thursday. Moderate buoyancy may develop as far north as northern NY/VT, with pockets of stronger heating/destabilization farther south into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas/Southeast. The strongest deep-layer flow/shear is still expected from PA/northern NJ northward into New England, where wind profiles will be conditionally supportive of supercells and organized bowing segments. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado could accompany the strongest storms in this area. Farther south into the southern Mid Atlantic and Carolinas, deep-layer flow will be somewhat unidirectional and weaker, but still sufficient for some organized convection. Clusters capable of producing scattered wind damage will be possible, especially in areas where stronger diurnal heating/destabilization occurs. Deep-layer flow will be rather weak into parts of MS/AL/GA/SC, but the glancing influence of the mid/upper-level trough and relatively large MLCAPE and PW will support storms capable of producing isolated strong/damaging gusts. ...Southwest MT and vicinity... Weak midlevel height falls are still expected across parts of western MT Thursday afternoon/evening, in response to the approaching mid/upper-level trough. Low-level moisture will remain limited, but strong diurnal heating will support high-based storm development. Steep low-level lapse rates and relatively strong midlevel flow will result in potential for isolated severe gusts during the afternoon and evening as convection spreads eastward. ...Upper Midwest... Low-level warm advection related to the southeastward-moving midlevel shortwave trough may aid in storm development on Thursday from northern MN into parts of WI and upper MI. Moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear will support potential for a few stronger cells/clusters capable of producing large hail and damaging wind. Additional strong to locally severe storms may redevelop later Thursday night across parts of this region, in response to a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. ...Northern Plains... Diurnal heating of an increasingly moist airmass will result in moderate to strong buoyancy across parts of the northern Plains by Thursday afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized storms, but diurnal storm development remains highly uncertain amid background midlevel height rises associated with a building ridge. Development of a storm or two cannot be ruled out through evening near a surface trough/weak dryline. Elevated storm coverage may increase somewhat Thursday night in response to a strengthening low-level jet, which could pose a threat of hail and localized strong gusts. ..Dean.. 06/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are forecast on Thursday from parts of New England into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the lower Great Lakes region into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Thursday. A surface low will move across parts of Quebec during the day and evening, as a trailing cold front moves across parts of New England, the Mid Atlantic, and Carolinas/Southeast. An upstream midlevel shortwave trough will move across parts of northern MN into WI and upper MI by evening. An amplified mid/upper-level trough will move gradually eastward across the western CONUS, as an upper-level ridge initially over the southern Rockies begins to break down and shift eastward. In response to this trough, a surface low will gradually deepen across the northern High Plains. ...New England into the Mid Atlantic/Southeast... Relatively rich low-level moisture will stream northward ahead of the front approaching New England and the Mid Atlantic during the day on Thursday. Moderate buoyancy may develop as far north as northern NY/VT, with pockets of stronger heating/destabilization farther south into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas/Southeast. The strongest deep-layer flow/shear is still expected from PA/northern NJ northward into New England, where wind profiles will be conditionally supportive of supercells and organized bowing segments. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado could accompany the strongest storms in this area. Farther south into the southern Mid Atlantic and Carolinas, deep-layer flow will be somewhat unidirectional and weaker, but still sufficient for some organized convection. Clusters capable of producing scattered wind damage will be possible, especially in areas where stronger diurnal heating/destabilization occurs. Deep-layer flow will be rather weak into parts of MS/AL/GA/SC, but the glancing influence of the mid/upper-level trough and relatively large MLCAPE and PW will support storms capable of producing isolated strong/damaging gusts. ...Southwest MT and vicinity... Weak midlevel height falls are still expected across parts of western MT Thursday afternoon/evening, in response to the approaching mid/upper-level trough. Low-level moisture will remain limited, but strong diurnal heating will support high-based storm development. Steep low-level lapse rates and relatively strong midlevel flow will result in potential for isolated severe gusts during the afternoon and evening as convection spreads eastward. ...Upper Midwest... Low-level warm advection related to the southeastward-moving midlevel shortwave trough may aid in storm development on Thursday from northern MN into parts of WI and upper MI. Moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear will support potential for a few stronger cells/clusters capable of producing large hail and damaging wind. Additional strong to locally severe storms may redevelop later Thursday night across parts of this region, in response to a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. ...Northern Plains... Diurnal heating of an increasingly moist airmass will result in moderate to strong buoyancy across parts of the northern Plains by Thursday afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized storms, but diurnal storm development remains highly uncertain amid background midlevel height rises associated with a building ridge. Development of a storm or two cannot be ruled out through evening near a surface trough/weak dryline. Elevated storm coverage may increase somewhat Thursday night in response to a strengthening low-level jet, which could pose a threat of hail and localized strong gusts. ..Dean.. 06/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are forecast on Thursday from parts of New England into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the lower Great Lakes region into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Thursday. A surface low will move across parts of Quebec during the day and evening, as a trailing cold front moves across parts of New England, the Mid Atlantic, and Carolinas/Southeast. An upstream midlevel shortwave trough will move across parts of northern MN into WI and upper MI by evening. An amplified mid/upper-level trough will move gradually eastward across the western CONUS, as an upper-level ridge initially over the southern Rockies begins to break down and shift eastward. In response to this trough, a surface low will gradually deepen across the northern High Plains. ...New England into the Mid Atlantic/Southeast... Relatively rich low-level moisture will stream northward ahead of the front approaching New England and the Mid Atlantic during the day on Thursday. Moderate buoyancy may develop as far north as northern NY/VT, with pockets of stronger heating/destabilization farther south into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas/Southeast. The strongest deep-layer flow/shear is still expected from PA/northern NJ northward into New England, where wind profiles will be conditionally supportive of supercells and organized bowing segments. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado could accompany the strongest storms in this area. Farther south into the southern Mid Atlantic and Carolinas, deep-layer flow will be somewhat unidirectional and weaker, but still sufficient for some organized convection. Clusters capable of producing scattered wind damage will be possible, especially in areas where stronger diurnal heating/destabilization occurs. Deep-layer flow will be rather weak into parts of MS/AL/GA/SC, but the glancing influence of the mid/upper-level trough and relatively large MLCAPE and PW will support storms capable of producing isolated strong/damaging gusts. ...Southwest MT and vicinity... Weak midlevel height falls are still expected across parts of western MT Thursday afternoon/evening, in response to the approaching mid/upper-level trough. Low-level moisture will remain limited, but strong diurnal heating will support high-based storm development. Steep low-level lapse rates and relatively strong midlevel flow will result in potential for isolated severe gusts during the afternoon and evening as convection spreads eastward. ...Upper Midwest... Low-level warm advection related to the southeastward-moving midlevel shortwave trough may aid in storm development on Thursday from northern MN into parts of WI and upper MI. Moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear will support potential for a few stronger cells/clusters capable of producing large hail and damaging wind. Additional strong to locally severe storms may redevelop later Thursday night across parts of this region, in response to a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. ...Northern Plains... Diurnal heating of an increasingly moist airmass will result in moderate to strong buoyancy across parts of the northern Plains by Thursday afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized storms, but diurnal storm development remains highly uncertain amid background midlevel height rises associated with a building ridge. Development of a storm or two cannot be ruled out through evening near a surface trough/weak dryline. Elevated storm coverage may increase somewhat Thursday night in response to a strengthening low-level jet, which could pose a threat of hail and localized strong gusts. ..Dean.. 06/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are forecast on Thursday from parts of New England into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the lower Great Lakes region into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Thursday. A surface low will move across parts of Quebec during the day and evening, as a trailing cold front moves across parts of New England, the Mid Atlantic, and Carolinas/Southeast. An upstream midlevel shortwave trough will move across parts of northern MN into WI and upper MI by evening. An amplified mid/upper-level trough will move gradually eastward across the western CONUS, as an upper-level ridge initially over the southern Rockies begins to break down and shift eastward. In response to this trough, a surface low will gradually deepen across the northern High Plains. ...New England into the Mid Atlantic/Southeast... Relatively rich low-level moisture will stream northward ahead of the front approaching New England and the Mid Atlantic during the day on Thursday. Moderate buoyancy may develop as far north as northern NY/VT, with pockets of stronger heating/destabilization farther south into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas/Southeast. The strongest deep-layer flow/shear is still expected from PA/northern NJ northward into New England, where wind profiles will be conditionally supportive of supercells and organized bowing segments. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado could accompany the strongest storms in this area. Farther south into the southern Mid Atlantic and Carolinas, deep-layer flow will be somewhat unidirectional and weaker, but still sufficient for some organized convection. Clusters capable of producing scattered wind damage will be possible, especially in areas where stronger diurnal heating/destabilization occurs. Deep-layer flow will be rather weak into parts of MS/AL/GA/SC, but the glancing influence of the mid/upper-level trough and relatively large MLCAPE and PW will support storms capable of producing isolated strong/damaging gusts. ...Southwest MT and vicinity... Weak midlevel height falls are still expected across parts of western MT Thursday afternoon/evening, in response to the approaching mid/upper-level trough. Low-level moisture will remain limited, but strong diurnal heating will support high-based storm development. Steep low-level lapse rates and relatively strong midlevel flow will result in potential for isolated severe gusts during the afternoon and evening as convection spreads eastward. ...Upper Midwest... Low-level warm advection related to the southeastward-moving midlevel shortwave trough may aid in storm development on Thursday from northern MN into parts of WI and upper MI. Moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear will support potential for a few stronger cells/clusters capable of producing large hail and damaging wind. Additional strong to locally severe storms may redevelop later Thursday night across parts of this region, in response to a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. ...Northern Plains... Diurnal heating of an increasingly moist airmass will result in moderate to strong buoyancy across parts of the northern Plains by Thursday afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized storms, but diurnal storm development remains highly uncertain amid background midlevel height rises associated with a building ridge. Development of a storm or two cannot be ruled out through evening near a surface trough/weak dryline. Elevated storm coverage may increase somewhat Thursday night in response to a strengthening low-level jet, which could pose a threat of hail and localized strong gusts. ..Dean.. 06/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are forecast on Thursday from parts of New England into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the lower Great Lakes region into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Thursday. A surface low will move across parts of Quebec during the day and evening, as a trailing cold front moves across parts of New England, the Mid Atlantic, and Carolinas/Southeast. An upstream midlevel shortwave trough will move across parts of northern MN into WI and upper MI by evening. An amplified mid/upper-level trough will move gradually eastward across the western CONUS, as an upper-level ridge initially over the southern Rockies begins to break down and shift eastward. In response to this trough, a surface low will gradually deepen across the northern High Plains. ...New England into the Mid Atlantic/Southeast... Relatively rich low-level moisture will stream northward ahead of the front approaching New England and the Mid Atlantic during the day on Thursday. Moderate buoyancy may develop as far north as northern NY/VT, with pockets of stronger heating/destabilization farther south into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas/Southeast. The strongest deep-layer flow/shear is still expected from PA/northern NJ northward into New England, where wind profiles will be conditionally supportive of supercells and organized bowing segments. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado could accompany the strongest storms in this area. Farther south into the southern Mid Atlantic and Carolinas, deep-layer flow will be somewhat unidirectional and weaker, but still sufficient for some organized convection. Clusters capable of producing scattered wind damage will be possible, especially in areas where stronger diurnal heating/destabilization occurs. Deep-layer flow will be rather weak into parts of MS/AL/GA/SC, but the glancing influence of the mid/upper-level trough and relatively large MLCAPE and PW will support storms capable of producing isolated strong/damaging gusts. ...Southwest MT and vicinity... Weak midlevel height falls are still expected across parts of western MT Thursday afternoon/evening, in response to the approaching mid/upper-level trough. Low-level moisture will remain limited, but strong diurnal heating will support high-based storm development. Steep low-level lapse rates and relatively strong midlevel flow will result in potential for isolated severe gusts during the afternoon and evening as convection spreads eastward. ...Upper Midwest... Low-level warm advection related to the southeastward-moving midlevel shortwave trough may aid in storm development on Thursday from northern MN into parts of WI and upper MI. Moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear will support potential for a few stronger cells/clusters capable of producing large hail and damaging wind. Additional strong to locally severe storms may redevelop later Thursday night across parts of this region, in response to a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. ...Northern Plains... Diurnal heating of an increasingly moist airmass will result in moderate to strong buoyancy across parts of the northern Plains by Thursday afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized storms, but diurnal storm development remains highly uncertain amid background midlevel height rises associated with a building ridge. Development of a storm or two cannot be ruled out through evening near a surface trough/weak dryline. Elevated storm coverage may increase somewhat Thursday night in response to a strengthening low-level jet, which could pose a threat of hail and localized strong gusts. ..Dean.. 06/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are forecast on Thursday from parts of New England into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the lower Great Lakes region into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Thursday. A surface low will move across parts of Quebec during the day and evening, as a trailing cold front moves across parts of New England, the Mid Atlantic, and Carolinas/Southeast. An upstream midlevel shortwave trough will move across parts of northern MN into WI and upper MI by evening. An amplified mid/upper-level trough will move gradually eastward across the western CONUS, as an upper-level ridge initially over the southern Rockies begins to break down and shift eastward. In response to this trough, a surface low will gradually deepen across the northern High Plains. ...New England into the Mid Atlantic/Southeast... Relatively rich low-level moisture will stream northward ahead of the front approaching New England and the Mid Atlantic during the day on Thursday. Moderate buoyancy may develop as far north as northern NY/VT, with pockets of stronger heating/destabilization farther south into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas/Southeast. The strongest deep-layer flow/shear is still expected from PA/northern NJ northward into New England, where wind profiles will be conditionally supportive of supercells and organized bowing segments. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado could accompany the strongest storms in this area. Farther south into the southern Mid Atlantic and Carolinas, deep-layer flow will be somewhat unidirectional and weaker, but still sufficient for some organized convection. Clusters capable of producing scattered wind damage will be possible, especially in areas where stronger diurnal heating/destabilization occurs. Deep-layer flow will be rather weak into parts of MS/AL/GA/SC, but the glancing influence of the mid/upper-level trough and relatively large MLCAPE and PW will support storms capable of producing isolated strong/damaging gusts. ...Southwest MT and vicinity... Weak midlevel height falls are still expected across parts of western MT Thursday afternoon/evening, in response to the approaching mid/upper-level trough. Low-level moisture will remain limited, but strong diurnal heating will support high-based storm development. Steep low-level lapse rates and relatively strong midlevel flow will result in potential for isolated severe gusts during the afternoon and evening as convection spreads eastward. ...Upper Midwest... Low-level warm advection related to the southeastward-moving midlevel shortwave trough may aid in storm development on Thursday from northern MN into parts of WI and upper MI. Moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear will support potential for a few stronger cells/clusters capable of producing large hail and damaging wind. Additional strong to locally severe storms may redevelop later Thursday night across parts of this region, in response to a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. ...Northern Plains... Diurnal heating of an increasingly moist airmass will result in moderate to strong buoyancy across parts of the northern Plains by Thursday afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized storms, but diurnal storm development remains highly uncertain amid background midlevel height rises associated with a building ridge. Development of a storm or two cannot be ruled out through evening near a surface trough/weak dryline. Elevated storm coverage may increase somewhat Thursday night in response to a strengthening low-level jet, which could pose a threat of hail and localized strong gusts. ..Dean.. 06/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are forecast on Thursday from parts of New England into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the lower Great Lakes region into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Thursday. A surface low will move across parts of Quebec during the day and evening, as a trailing cold front moves across parts of New England, the Mid Atlantic, and Carolinas/Southeast. An upstream midlevel shortwave trough will move across parts of northern MN into WI and upper MI by evening. An amplified mid/upper-level trough will move gradually eastward across the western CONUS, as an upper-level ridge initially over the southern Rockies begins to break down and shift eastward. In response to this trough, a surface low will gradually deepen across the northern High Plains. ...New England into the Mid Atlantic/Southeast... Relatively rich low-level moisture will stream northward ahead of the front approaching New England and the Mid Atlantic during the day on Thursday. Moderate buoyancy may develop as far north as northern NY/VT, with pockets of stronger heating/destabilization farther south into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas/Southeast. The strongest deep-layer flow/shear is still expected from PA/northern NJ northward into New England, where wind profiles will be conditionally supportive of supercells and organized bowing segments. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado could accompany the strongest storms in this area. Farther south into the southern Mid Atlantic and Carolinas, deep-layer flow will be somewhat unidirectional and weaker, but still sufficient for some organized convection. Clusters capable of producing scattered wind damage will be possible, especially in areas where stronger diurnal heating/destabilization occurs. Deep-layer flow will be rather weak into parts of MS/AL/GA/SC, but the glancing influence of the mid/upper-level trough and relatively large MLCAPE and PW will support storms capable of producing isolated strong/damaging gusts. ...Southwest MT and vicinity... Weak midlevel height falls are still expected across parts of western MT Thursday afternoon/evening, in response to the approaching mid/upper-level trough. Low-level moisture will remain limited, but strong diurnal heating will support high-based storm development. Steep low-level lapse rates and relatively strong midlevel flow will result in potential for isolated severe gusts during the afternoon and evening as convection spreads eastward. ...Upper Midwest... Low-level warm advection related to the southeastward-moving midlevel shortwave trough may aid in storm development on Thursday from northern MN into parts of WI and upper MI. Moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear will support potential for a few stronger cells/clusters capable of producing large hail and damaging wind. Additional strong to locally severe storms may redevelop later Thursday night across parts of this region, in response to a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. ...Northern Plains... Diurnal heating of an increasingly moist airmass will result in moderate to strong buoyancy across parts of the northern Plains by Thursday afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized storms, but diurnal storm development remains highly uncertain amid background midlevel height rises associated with a building ridge. Development of a storm or two cannot be ruled out through evening near a surface trough/weak dryline. Elevated storm coverage may increase somewhat Thursday night in response to a strengthening low-level jet, which could pose a threat of hail and localized strong gusts. ..Dean.. 06/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are forecast on Thursday from parts of New England into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the lower Great Lakes region into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Thursday. A surface low will move across parts of Quebec during the day and evening, as a trailing cold front moves across parts of New England, the Mid Atlantic, and Carolinas/Southeast. An upstream midlevel shortwave trough will move across parts of northern MN into WI and upper MI by evening. An amplified mid/upper-level trough will move gradually eastward across the western CONUS, as an upper-level ridge initially over the southern Rockies begins to break down and shift eastward. In response to this trough, a surface low will gradually deepen across the northern High Plains. ...New England into the Mid Atlantic/Southeast... Relatively rich low-level moisture will stream northward ahead of the front approaching New England and the Mid Atlantic during the day on Thursday. Moderate buoyancy may develop as far north as northern NY/VT, with pockets of stronger heating/destabilization farther south into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas/Southeast. The strongest deep-layer flow/shear is still expected from PA/northern NJ northward into New England, where wind profiles will be conditionally supportive of supercells and organized bowing segments. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado could accompany the strongest storms in this area. Farther south into the southern Mid Atlantic and Carolinas, deep-layer flow will be somewhat unidirectional and weaker, but still sufficient for some organized convection. Clusters capable of producing scattered wind damage will be possible, especially in areas where stronger diurnal heating/destabilization occurs. Deep-layer flow will be rather weak into parts of MS/AL/GA/SC, but the glancing influence of the mid/upper-level trough and relatively large MLCAPE and PW will support storms capable of producing isolated strong/damaging gusts. ...Southwest MT and vicinity... Weak midlevel height falls are still expected across parts of western MT Thursday afternoon/evening, in response to the approaching mid/upper-level trough. Low-level moisture will remain limited, but strong diurnal heating will support high-based storm development. Steep low-level lapse rates and relatively strong midlevel flow will result in potential for isolated severe gusts during the afternoon and evening as convection spreads eastward. ...Upper Midwest... Low-level warm advection related to the southeastward-moving midlevel shortwave trough may aid in storm development on Thursday from northern MN into parts of WI and upper MI. Moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear will support potential for a few stronger cells/clusters capable of producing large hail and damaging wind. Additional strong to locally severe storms may redevelop later Thursday night across parts of this region, in response to a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. ...Northern Plains... Diurnal heating of an increasingly moist airmass will result in moderate to strong buoyancy across parts of the northern Plains by Thursday afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized storms, but diurnal storm development remains highly uncertain amid background midlevel height rises associated with a building ridge. Development of a storm or two cannot be ruled out through evening near a surface trough/weak dryline. Elevated storm coverage may increase somewhat Thursday night in response to a strengthening low-level jet, which could pose a threat of hail and localized strong gusts. ..Dean.. 06/18/2025 Read more

WW 0431 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 431 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE END TO 30 SW BVO TO 30 NW BVO TO 20 NNW CNU. ..KERR..06/18/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...SGF...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 431 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-143-180640- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON WASHINGTON KSC001-011-019-021-037-099-125-133-205-180640- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BOURBON CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE CRAWFORD LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO WILSON MOC009-011-039-057-097-109-119-145-217-180640- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY BARTON CEDAR DADE JASPER LAWRENCE Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND WESTERN OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are expected today from parts of southern Missouri northeastward into southern lower Michigan and western Ohio. Damaging winds, isolated hail, and a few tornadoes will be possible. More isolated severe storms may develop across the southern Plains. ...Midwest/Southern Great Lakes... A shortwave upper trough is forecast to move across the Mid-MS Valley and Midwest today. A swath of enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will overspread portions of the Ozarks to the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes ahead of a surface front. A seasonally warm and moist airmass ahead of the front/composite outflow will support moderate destabilization. A surface low/MCV will develop northeast across central/northern IL to southern Lower MI during the afternoon into early evening. The current expectation is that thunderstorms will develop ahead of the surface low and front, with a mix of clusters and line segments. Midlevel lapse rates will remain modest, but isolated large hail is possible. More likely, damaging gusts will be the main hazard as linear convection develops ahead of the front. Tornado potential is possible near the surface low from portions of northeast IL into northern IN/southern Lower MI where low-level shear may be maximized. However, forecast guidance varies considerable regarding this scenario, so will maintain 5 percent tornado probabilities at this time. ...TX/OK to the Mid-South... A very moist and unstable airmass will be in place across the region. A northeast to southwest oriented outflow boundary related to an MCS that is currently ongoing across northern OK as of 06z this morning will be draped across the Red River/southern OK vicinity into the Ozarks. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop diurnally. Large-scale ascent will be nebulous, but supercell wind profiles and strong instability/steep lapse rates will support isolated damaging wind and hail potential. ...Northern Plains... Modest boundary layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support weak diurnal destabilization. Increasing west/northwesterly flow with height will provide sufficient shear for some storm organization and elongated/straight hodographs are indicated in forecast soundings. Furthermore, a deeply mixed boundary layer is evident. This should support isolated hail and strong gusts during the afternoon/early evening. ...Mid-Atlantic... Strong heating of a very moist airmass will support moderate destabilization. Deep-layer westerly flow will remain somewhat weak, but sufficient for multicell clusters. Strong gusts may accompany this activity. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 06/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND WESTERN OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are expected today from parts of southern Missouri northeastward into southern lower Michigan and western Ohio. Damaging winds, isolated hail, and a few tornadoes will be possible. More isolated severe storms may develop across the southern Plains. ...Midwest/Southern Great Lakes... A shortwave upper trough is forecast to move across the Mid-MS Valley and Midwest today. A swath of enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will overspread portions of the Ozarks to the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes ahead of a surface front. A seasonally warm and moist airmass ahead of the front/composite outflow will support moderate destabilization. A surface low/MCV will develop northeast across central/northern IL to southern Lower MI during the afternoon into early evening. The current expectation is that thunderstorms will develop ahead of the surface low and front, with a mix of clusters and line segments. Midlevel lapse rates will remain modest, but isolated large hail is possible. More likely, damaging gusts will be the main hazard as linear convection develops ahead of the front. Tornado potential is possible near the surface low from portions of northeast IL into northern IN/southern Lower MI where low-level shear may be maximized. However, forecast guidance varies considerable regarding this scenario, so will maintain 5 percent tornado probabilities at this time. ...TX/OK to the Mid-South... A very moist and unstable airmass will be in place across the region. A northeast to southwest oriented outflow boundary related to an MCS that is currently ongoing across northern OK as of 06z this morning will be draped across the Red River/southern OK vicinity into the Ozarks. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop diurnally. Large-scale ascent will be nebulous, but supercell wind profiles and strong instability/steep lapse rates will support isolated damaging wind and hail potential. ...Northern Plains... Modest boundary layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support weak diurnal destabilization. Increasing west/northwesterly flow with height will provide sufficient shear for some storm organization and elongated/straight hodographs are indicated in forecast soundings. Furthermore, a deeply mixed boundary layer is evident. This should support isolated hail and strong gusts during the afternoon/early evening. ...Mid-Atlantic... Strong heating of a very moist airmass will support moderate destabilization. Deep-layer westerly flow will remain somewhat weak, but sufficient for multicell clusters. Strong gusts may accompany this activity. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 06/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND WESTERN OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are expected today from parts of southern Missouri northeastward into southern lower Michigan and western Ohio. Damaging winds, isolated hail, and a few tornadoes will be possible. More isolated severe storms may develop across the southern Plains. ...Midwest/Southern Great Lakes... A shortwave upper trough is forecast to move across the Mid-MS Valley and Midwest today. A swath of enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will overspread portions of the Ozarks to the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes ahead of a surface front. A seasonally warm and moist airmass ahead of the front/composite outflow will support moderate destabilization. A surface low/MCV will develop northeast across central/northern IL to southern Lower MI during the afternoon into early evening. The current expectation is that thunderstorms will develop ahead of the surface low and front, with a mix of clusters and line segments. Midlevel lapse rates will remain modest, but isolated large hail is possible. More likely, damaging gusts will be the main hazard as linear convection develops ahead of the front. Tornado potential is possible near the surface low from portions of northeast IL into northern IN/southern Lower MI where low-level shear may be maximized. However, forecast guidance varies considerable regarding this scenario, so will maintain 5 percent tornado probabilities at this time. ...TX/OK to the Mid-South... A very moist and unstable airmass will be in place across the region. A northeast to southwest oriented outflow boundary related to an MCS that is currently ongoing across northern OK as of 06z this morning will be draped across the Red River/southern OK vicinity into the Ozarks. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop diurnally. Large-scale ascent will be nebulous, but supercell wind profiles and strong instability/steep lapse rates will support isolated damaging wind and hail potential. ...Northern Plains... Modest boundary layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support weak diurnal destabilization. Increasing west/northwesterly flow with height will provide sufficient shear for some storm organization and elongated/straight hodographs are indicated in forecast soundings. Furthermore, a deeply mixed boundary layer is evident. This should support isolated hail and strong gusts during the afternoon/early evening. ...Mid-Atlantic... Strong heating of a very moist airmass will support moderate destabilization. Deep-layer westerly flow will remain somewhat weak, but sufficient for multicell clusters. Strong gusts may accompany this activity. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 06/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND WESTERN OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are expected today from parts of southern Missouri northeastward into southern lower Michigan and western Ohio. Damaging winds, isolated hail, and a few tornadoes will be possible. More isolated severe storms may develop across the southern Plains. ...Midwest/Southern Great Lakes... A shortwave upper trough is forecast to move across the Mid-MS Valley and Midwest today. A swath of enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will overspread portions of the Ozarks to the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes ahead of a surface front. A seasonally warm and moist airmass ahead of the front/composite outflow will support moderate destabilization. A surface low/MCV will develop northeast across central/northern IL to southern Lower MI during the afternoon into early evening. The current expectation is that thunderstorms will develop ahead of the surface low and front, with a mix of clusters and line segments. Midlevel lapse rates will remain modest, but isolated large hail is possible. More likely, damaging gusts will be the main hazard as linear convection develops ahead of the front. Tornado potential is possible near the surface low from portions of northeast IL into northern IN/southern Lower MI where low-level shear may be maximized. However, forecast guidance varies considerable regarding this scenario, so will maintain 5 percent tornado probabilities at this time. ...TX/OK to the Mid-South... A very moist and unstable airmass will be in place across the region. A northeast to southwest oriented outflow boundary related to an MCS that is currently ongoing across northern OK as of 06z this morning will be draped across the Red River/southern OK vicinity into the Ozarks. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop diurnally. Large-scale ascent will be nebulous, but supercell wind profiles and strong instability/steep lapse rates will support isolated damaging wind and hail potential. ...Northern Plains... Modest boundary layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support weak diurnal destabilization. Increasing west/northwesterly flow with height will provide sufficient shear for some storm organization and elongated/straight hodographs are indicated in forecast soundings. Furthermore, a deeply mixed boundary layer is evident. This should support isolated hail and strong gusts during the afternoon/early evening. ...Mid-Atlantic... Strong heating of a very moist airmass will support moderate destabilization. Deep-layer westerly flow will remain somewhat weak, but sufficient for multicell clusters. Strong gusts may accompany this activity. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 06/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND WESTERN OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are expected today from parts of southern Missouri northeastward into southern lower Michigan and western Ohio. Damaging winds, isolated hail, and a few tornadoes will be possible. More isolated severe storms may develop across the southern Plains. ...Midwest/Southern Great Lakes... A shortwave upper trough is forecast to move across the Mid-MS Valley and Midwest today. A swath of enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will overspread portions of the Ozarks to the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes ahead of a surface front. A seasonally warm and moist airmass ahead of the front/composite outflow will support moderate destabilization. A surface low/MCV will develop northeast across central/northern IL to southern Lower MI during the afternoon into early evening. The current expectation is that thunderstorms will develop ahead of the surface low and front, with a mix of clusters and line segments. Midlevel lapse rates will remain modest, but isolated large hail is possible. More likely, damaging gusts will be the main hazard as linear convection develops ahead of the front. Tornado potential is possible near the surface low from portions of northeast IL into northern IN/southern Lower MI where low-level shear may be maximized. However, forecast guidance varies considerable regarding this scenario, so will maintain 5 percent tornado probabilities at this time. ...TX/OK to the Mid-South... A very moist and unstable airmass will be in place across the region. A northeast to southwest oriented outflow boundary related to an MCS that is currently ongoing across northern OK as of 06z this morning will be draped across the Red River/southern OK vicinity into the Ozarks. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop diurnally. Large-scale ascent will be nebulous, but supercell wind profiles and strong instability/steep lapse rates will support isolated damaging wind and hail potential. ...Northern Plains... Modest boundary layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support weak diurnal destabilization. Increasing west/northwesterly flow with height will provide sufficient shear for some storm organization and elongated/straight hodographs are indicated in forecast soundings. Furthermore, a deeply mixed boundary layer is evident. This should support isolated hail and strong gusts during the afternoon/early evening. ...Mid-Atlantic... Strong heating of a very moist airmass will support moderate destabilization. Deep-layer westerly flow will remain somewhat weak, but sufficient for multicell clusters. Strong gusts may accompany this activity. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 06/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND WESTERN OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are expected today from parts of southern Missouri northeastward into southern lower Michigan and western Ohio. Damaging winds, isolated hail, and a few tornadoes will be possible. More isolated severe storms may develop across the southern Plains. ...Midwest/Southern Great Lakes... A shortwave upper trough is forecast to move across the Mid-MS Valley and Midwest today. A swath of enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will overspread portions of the Ozarks to the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes ahead of a surface front. A seasonally warm and moist airmass ahead of the front/composite outflow will support moderate destabilization. A surface low/MCV will develop northeast across central/northern IL to southern Lower MI during the afternoon into early evening. The current expectation is that thunderstorms will develop ahead of the surface low and front, with a mix of clusters and line segments. Midlevel lapse rates will remain modest, but isolated large hail is possible. More likely, damaging gusts will be the main hazard as linear convection develops ahead of the front. Tornado potential is possible near the surface low from portions of northeast IL into northern IN/southern Lower MI where low-level shear may be maximized. However, forecast guidance varies considerable regarding this scenario, so will maintain 5 percent tornado probabilities at this time. ...TX/OK to the Mid-South... A very moist and unstable airmass will be in place across the region. A northeast to southwest oriented outflow boundary related to an MCS that is currently ongoing across northern OK as of 06z this morning will be draped across the Red River/southern OK vicinity into the Ozarks. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop diurnally. Large-scale ascent will be nebulous, but supercell wind profiles and strong instability/steep lapse rates will support isolated damaging wind and hail potential. ...Northern Plains... Modest boundary layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support weak diurnal destabilization. Increasing west/northwesterly flow with height will provide sufficient shear for some storm organization and elongated/straight hodographs are indicated in forecast soundings. Furthermore, a deeply mixed boundary layer is evident. This should support isolated hail and strong gusts during the afternoon/early evening. ...Mid-Atlantic... Strong heating of a very moist airmass will support moderate destabilization. Deep-layer westerly flow will remain somewhat weak, but sufficient for multicell clusters. Strong gusts may accompany this activity. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 06/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND WESTERN OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are expected today from parts of southern Missouri northeastward into southern lower Michigan and western Ohio. Damaging winds, isolated hail, and a few tornadoes will be possible. More isolated severe storms may develop across the southern Plains. ...Midwest/Southern Great Lakes... A shortwave upper trough is forecast to move across the Mid-MS Valley and Midwest today. A swath of enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will overspread portions of the Ozarks to the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes ahead of a surface front. A seasonally warm and moist airmass ahead of the front/composite outflow will support moderate destabilization. A surface low/MCV will develop northeast across central/northern IL to southern Lower MI during the afternoon into early evening. The current expectation is that thunderstorms will develop ahead of the surface low and front, with a mix of clusters and line segments. Midlevel lapse rates will remain modest, but isolated large hail is possible. More likely, damaging gusts will be the main hazard as linear convection develops ahead of the front. Tornado potential is possible near the surface low from portions of northeast IL into northern IN/southern Lower MI where low-level shear may be maximized. However, forecast guidance varies considerable regarding this scenario, so will maintain 5 percent tornado probabilities at this time. ...TX/OK to the Mid-South... A very moist and unstable airmass will be in place across the region. A northeast to southwest oriented outflow boundary related to an MCS that is currently ongoing across northern OK as of 06z this morning will be draped across the Red River/southern OK vicinity into the Ozarks. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop diurnally. Large-scale ascent will be nebulous, but supercell wind profiles and strong instability/steep lapse rates will support isolated damaging wind and hail potential. ...Northern Plains... Modest boundary layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support weak diurnal destabilization. Increasing west/northwesterly flow with height will provide sufficient shear for some storm organization and elongated/straight hodographs are indicated in forecast soundings. Furthermore, a deeply mixed boundary layer is evident. This should support isolated hail and strong gusts during the afternoon/early evening. ...Mid-Atlantic... Strong heating of a very moist airmass will support moderate destabilization. Deep-layer westerly flow will remain somewhat weak, but sufficient for multicell clusters. Strong gusts may accompany this activity. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 06/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND WESTERN OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are expected today from parts of southern Missouri northeastward into southern lower Michigan and western Ohio. Damaging winds, isolated hail, and a few tornadoes will be possible. More isolated severe storms may develop across the southern Plains. ...Midwest/Southern Great Lakes... A shortwave upper trough is forecast to move across the Mid-MS Valley and Midwest today. A swath of enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will overspread portions of the Ozarks to the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes ahead of a surface front. A seasonally warm and moist airmass ahead of the front/composite outflow will support moderate destabilization. A surface low/MCV will develop northeast across central/northern IL to southern Lower MI during the afternoon into early evening. The current expectation is that thunderstorms will develop ahead of the surface low and front, with a mix of clusters and line segments. Midlevel lapse rates will remain modest, but isolated large hail is possible. More likely, damaging gusts will be the main hazard as linear convection develops ahead of the front. Tornado potential is possible near the surface low from portions of northeast IL into northern IN/southern Lower MI where low-level shear may be maximized. However, forecast guidance varies considerable regarding this scenario, so will maintain 5 percent tornado probabilities at this time. ...TX/OK to the Mid-South... A very moist and unstable airmass will be in place across the region. A northeast to southwest oriented outflow boundary related to an MCS that is currently ongoing across northern OK as of 06z this morning will be draped across the Red River/southern OK vicinity into the Ozarks. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop diurnally. Large-scale ascent will be nebulous, but supercell wind profiles and strong instability/steep lapse rates will support isolated damaging wind and hail potential. ...Northern Plains... Modest boundary layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support weak diurnal destabilization. Increasing west/northwesterly flow with height will provide sufficient shear for some storm organization and elongated/straight hodographs are indicated in forecast soundings. Furthermore, a deeply mixed boundary layer is evident. This should support isolated hail and strong gusts during the afternoon/early evening. ...Mid-Atlantic... Strong heating of a very moist airmass will support moderate destabilization. Deep-layer westerly flow will remain somewhat weak, but sufficient for multicell clusters. Strong gusts may accompany this activity. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 06/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND WESTERN OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are expected today from parts of southern Missouri northeastward into southern lower Michigan and western Ohio. Damaging winds, isolated hail, and a few tornadoes will be possible. More isolated severe storms may develop across the southern Plains. ...Midwest/Southern Great Lakes... A shortwave upper trough is forecast to move across the Mid-MS Valley and Midwest today. A swath of enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will overspread portions of the Ozarks to the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes ahead of a surface front. A seasonally warm and moist airmass ahead of the front/composite outflow will support moderate destabilization. A surface low/MCV will develop northeast across central/northern IL to southern Lower MI during the afternoon into early evening. The current expectation is that thunderstorms will develop ahead of the surface low and front, with a mix of clusters and line segments. Midlevel lapse rates will remain modest, but isolated large hail is possible. More likely, damaging gusts will be the main hazard as linear convection develops ahead of the front. Tornado potential is possible near the surface low from portions of northeast IL into northern IN/southern Lower MI where low-level shear may be maximized. However, forecast guidance varies considerable regarding this scenario, so will maintain 5 percent tornado probabilities at this time. ...TX/OK to the Mid-South... A very moist and unstable airmass will be in place across the region. A northeast to southwest oriented outflow boundary related to an MCS that is currently ongoing across northern OK as of 06z this morning will be draped across the Red River/southern OK vicinity into the Ozarks. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop diurnally. Large-scale ascent will be nebulous, but supercell wind profiles and strong instability/steep lapse rates will support isolated damaging wind and hail potential. ...Northern Plains... Modest boundary layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support weak diurnal destabilization. Increasing west/northwesterly flow with height will provide sufficient shear for some storm organization and elongated/straight hodographs are indicated in forecast soundings. Furthermore, a deeply mixed boundary layer is evident. This should support isolated hail and strong gusts during the afternoon/early evening. ...Mid-Atlantic... Strong heating of a very moist airmass will support moderate destabilization. Deep-layer westerly flow will remain somewhat weak, but sufficient for multicell clusters. Strong gusts may accompany this activity. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 06/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND WESTERN OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are expected today from parts of southern Missouri northeastward into southern lower Michigan and western Ohio. Damaging winds, isolated hail, and a few tornadoes will be possible. More isolated severe storms may develop across the southern Plains. ...Midwest/Southern Great Lakes... A shortwave upper trough is forecast to move across the Mid-MS Valley and Midwest today. A swath of enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will overspread portions of the Ozarks to the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes ahead of a surface front. A seasonally warm and moist airmass ahead of the front/composite outflow will support moderate destabilization. A surface low/MCV will develop northeast across central/northern IL to southern Lower MI during the afternoon into early evening. The current expectation is that thunderstorms will develop ahead of the surface low and front, with a mix of clusters and line segments. Midlevel lapse rates will remain modest, but isolated large hail is possible. More likely, damaging gusts will be the main hazard as linear convection develops ahead of the front. Tornado potential is possible near the surface low from portions of northeast IL into northern IN/southern Lower MI where low-level shear may be maximized. However, forecast guidance varies considerable regarding this scenario, so will maintain 5 percent tornado probabilities at this time. ...TX/OK to the Mid-South... A very moist and unstable airmass will be in place across the region. A northeast to southwest oriented outflow boundary related to an MCS that is currently ongoing across northern OK as of 06z this morning will be draped across the Red River/southern OK vicinity into the Ozarks. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop diurnally. Large-scale ascent will be nebulous, but supercell wind profiles and strong instability/steep lapse rates will support isolated damaging wind and hail potential. ...Northern Plains... Modest boundary layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support weak diurnal destabilization. Increasing west/northwesterly flow with height will provide sufficient shear for some storm organization and elongated/straight hodographs are indicated in forecast soundings. Furthermore, a deeply mixed boundary layer is evident. This should support isolated hail and strong gusts during the afternoon/early evening. ...Mid-Atlantic... Strong heating of a very moist airmass will support moderate destabilization. Deep-layer westerly flow will remain somewhat weak, but sufficient for multicell clusters. Strong gusts may accompany this activity. ..Leitman/Weinman.. 06/18/2025 Read more