Severe Storms

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central and southern Plains this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Southern Kansas Northern Oklahoma Northeast Texas Panhandle * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force A couple of tornadoes Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing numerous to widespread damaging winds, scattered large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central/southern Plains. The greatest threat for destructive gusts up to 70-100 mph is forecast across portions of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && Read more

WW 0429 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 429 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE BGD TO 60 WSW AVK TO 40 W AVK TO 40 ESE DDC. ..SPC..06/18/25 ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...AMA...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 429 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-015-019-035-049-073-077-095-099-125-133-173-191-205-207- 180240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BUTLER CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY ELK GREENWOOD HARPER KINGMAN LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO SEDGWICK SUMNER WILSON WOODSON OKC003-009-011-039-043-045-047-053-071-073-083-093-103-105-113- 117-119-129-147-149-151-153-180240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BECKHAM BLAINE CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS GARFIELD GRANT KAY KINGFISHER LOGAN MAJOR NOBLE NOWATA OSAGE PAWNEE PAYNE ROGER MILLS Read more

WW 0429 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 429 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE BGD TO 60 WSW AVK TO 40 W AVK TO 40 ESE DDC. ..SPC..06/18/25 ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...AMA...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 429 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-015-019-035-049-073-077-095-099-125-133-173-191-205-207- 180240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BUTLER CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY ELK GREENWOOD HARPER KINGMAN LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO SEDGWICK SUMNER WILSON WOODSON OKC003-009-011-039-043-045-047-053-071-073-083-093-103-105-113- 117-119-129-147-149-151-153-180240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BECKHAM BLAINE CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS GARFIELD GRANT KAY KINGFISHER LOGAN MAJOR NOBLE NOWATA OSAGE PAWNEE PAYNE ROGER MILLS Read more

WW 0429 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 429 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE BGD TO 60 WSW AVK TO 40 W AVK TO 40 ESE DDC. ..SPC..06/18/25 ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...AMA...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 429 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-015-019-035-049-073-077-095-099-125-133-173-191-205-207- 180240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BUTLER CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY ELK GREENWOOD HARPER KINGMAN LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO SEDGWICK SUMNER WILSON WOODSON OKC003-009-011-039-043-045-047-053-071-073-083-093-103-105-113- 117-119-129-147-149-151-153-180240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BECKHAM BLAINE CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS GARFIELD GRANT KAY KINGFISHER LOGAN MAJOR NOBLE NOWATA OSAGE PAWNEE PAYNE ROGER MILLS Read more

WW 0429 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 429 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE BGD TO 60 WSW AVK TO 40 W AVK TO 40 ESE DDC. ..SPC..06/18/25 ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...AMA...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 429 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-015-019-035-049-073-077-095-099-125-133-173-191-205-207- 180240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BUTLER CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY ELK GREENWOOD HARPER KINGMAN LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO SEDGWICK SUMNER WILSON WOODSON OKC003-009-011-039-043-045-047-053-071-073-083-093-103-105-113- 117-119-129-147-149-151-153-180240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BECKHAM BLAINE CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS GARFIELD GRANT KAY KINGFISHER LOGAN MAJOR NOBLE NOWATA OSAGE PAWNEE PAYNE ROGER MILLS Read more

WW 0429 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 429 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE BGD TO 60 WSW AVK TO 40 W AVK TO 40 ESE DDC. ..SPC..06/18/25 ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...AMA...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 429 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-015-019-035-049-073-077-095-099-125-133-173-191-205-207- 180240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BUTLER CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY ELK GREENWOOD HARPER KINGMAN LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO SEDGWICK SUMNER WILSON WOODSON OKC003-009-011-039-043-045-047-053-071-073-083-093-103-105-113- 117-119-129-147-149-151-153-180240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BECKHAM BLAINE CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS GARFIELD GRANT KAY KINGFISHER LOGAN MAJOR NOBLE NOWATA OSAGE PAWNEE PAYNE ROGER MILLS Read more

WW 0429 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 429 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE BGD TO 60 WSW AVK TO 40 W AVK TO 40 ESE DDC. ..SPC..06/18/25 ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...AMA...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 429 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-015-019-035-049-073-077-095-099-125-133-173-191-205-207- 180240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BUTLER CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY ELK GREENWOOD HARPER KINGMAN LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO SEDGWICK SUMNER WILSON WOODSON OKC003-009-011-039-043-045-047-053-071-073-083-093-103-105-113- 117-119-129-147-149-151-153-180240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BECKHAM BLAINE CUSTER DEWEY ELLIS GARFIELD GRANT KAY KINGFISHER LOGAN MAJOR NOBLE NOWATA OSAGE PAWNEE PAYNE ROGER MILLS Read more

WW 429 TORNADO KS OK TX 172040Z - 180300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 429 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 340 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Kansas Northern Oklahoma Northeast Texas Panhandle * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 340 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to rapidly develop this afternoon along an axis from the northeast Texas Panhandle into southeast Kansas. Supercell thunderstorms are expected with a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 110 miles west southwest of Alva OK to 10 miles southeast of Chanute KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 428... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0430 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 430 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..06/18/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 430 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC055-057-065-075-141-180240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GREER HARMON JACKSON KIOWA TILLMAN TXC045-075-101-107-125-153-155-189-191-197-269-303-345-487- 180240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRISCOE CHILDRESS COTTLE CROSBY DICKENS FLOYD FOARD HALE HALL HARDEMAN KING LUBBOCK MOTLEY WILBARGER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing swaths of damaging gusts (some greater than 80 mph), large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a couple tornadoes are possible through tonight, especially across parts of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...KS/OK/MO vicinity... One or more thunderstorm clusters/small bows are still forecast to develop and shift east across the outlook area through tonight as a surface front/composite outflow begins to develop southeast. Thunderstorm coverage has recently increased across portions of central KS, likely in response to a strengthening low-level jet noted in regional VWP data over the last hour. Where strong heating has occurred and dewpoints remain in the upper 60s to low 70s F, intense convection is still possible. Isolated significant gusts remain possible, supported by the 00z OUN RAOB showing midlevel lapse rates near 8.5 C/km amid 3500 J/kg MLCAPE. The Moderate risk (level 4 of 5) has been trimmed on the north and western edges and confined to a thin strip of southern KS into northern OK where the surface outflow is located along with the stronger instability gradient. This corridor should have the greatest risk for significant severe thunderstorms into the nighttime hours. ...WY/CO into NE... Severe potential has waned across the High Plains this evening, with some lingering risk for hail and gusty winds across parts of NE. Overall severe potential should continue to gradually wane through the evening and severe probabilities have been reduced where boundary layer stabilization has occurred and instability has weakened. ...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic... Isolated strong gusts of 40-50 mph remain possible for another hour or two, particularly across parts of NC/SC where a couple of forward propagating clusters persists. However, weak shear and a nocturnally stabilizing boundary layer should result in a gradual weakening trend. ..Leitman.. 06/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing swaths of damaging gusts (some greater than 80 mph), large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a couple tornadoes are possible through tonight, especially across parts of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...KS/OK/MO vicinity... One or more thunderstorm clusters/small bows are still forecast to develop and shift east across the outlook area through tonight as a surface front/composite outflow begins to develop southeast. Thunderstorm coverage has recently increased across portions of central KS, likely in response to a strengthening low-level jet noted in regional VWP data over the last hour. Where strong heating has occurred and dewpoints remain in the upper 60s to low 70s F, intense convection is still possible. Isolated significant gusts remain possible, supported by the 00z OUN RAOB showing midlevel lapse rates near 8.5 C/km amid 3500 J/kg MLCAPE. The Moderate risk (level 4 of 5) has been trimmed on the north and western edges and confined to a thin strip of southern KS into northern OK where the surface outflow is located along with the stronger instability gradient. This corridor should have the greatest risk for significant severe thunderstorms into the nighttime hours. ...WY/CO into NE... Severe potential has waned across the High Plains this evening, with some lingering risk for hail and gusty winds across parts of NE. Overall severe potential should continue to gradually wane through the evening and severe probabilities have been reduced where boundary layer stabilization has occurred and instability has weakened. ...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic... Isolated strong gusts of 40-50 mph remain possible for another hour or two, particularly across parts of NC/SC where a couple of forward propagating clusters persists. However, weak shear and a nocturnally stabilizing boundary layer should result in a gradual weakening trend. ..Leitman.. 06/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing swaths of damaging gusts (some greater than 80 mph), large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a couple tornadoes are possible through tonight, especially across parts of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...KS/OK/MO vicinity... One or more thunderstorm clusters/small bows are still forecast to develop and shift east across the outlook area through tonight as a surface front/composite outflow begins to develop southeast. Thunderstorm coverage has recently increased across portions of central KS, likely in response to a strengthening low-level jet noted in regional VWP data over the last hour. Where strong heating has occurred and dewpoints remain in the upper 60s to low 70s F, intense convection is still possible. Isolated significant gusts remain possible, supported by the 00z OUN RAOB showing midlevel lapse rates near 8.5 C/km amid 3500 J/kg MLCAPE. The Moderate risk (level 4 of 5) has been trimmed on the north and western edges and confined to a thin strip of southern KS into northern OK where the surface outflow is located along with the stronger instability gradient. This corridor should have the greatest risk for significant severe thunderstorms into the nighttime hours. ...WY/CO into NE... Severe potential has waned across the High Plains this evening, with some lingering risk for hail and gusty winds across parts of NE. Overall severe potential should continue to gradually wane through the evening and severe probabilities have been reduced where boundary layer stabilization has occurred and instability has weakened. ...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic... Isolated strong gusts of 40-50 mph remain possible for another hour or two, particularly across parts of NC/SC where a couple of forward propagating clusters persists. However, weak shear and a nocturnally stabilizing boundary layer should result in a gradual weakening trend. ..Leitman.. 06/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing swaths of damaging gusts (some greater than 80 mph), large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a couple tornadoes are possible through tonight, especially across parts of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...KS/OK/MO vicinity... One or more thunderstorm clusters/small bows are still forecast to develop and shift east across the outlook area through tonight as a surface front/composite outflow begins to develop southeast. Thunderstorm coverage has recently increased across portions of central KS, likely in response to a strengthening low-level jet noted in regional VWP data over the last hour. Where strong heating has occurred and dewpoints remain in the upper 60s to low 70s F, intense convection is still possible. Isolated significant gusts remain possible, supported by the 00z OUN RAOB showing midlevel lapse rates near 8.5 C/km amid 3500 J/kg MLCAPE. The Moderate risk (level 4 of 5) has been trimmed on the north and western edges and confined to a thin strip of southern KS into northern OK where the surface outflow is located along with the stronger instability gradient. This corridor should have the greatest risk for significant severe thunderstorms into the nighttime hours. ...WY/CO into NE... Severe potential has waned across the High Plains this evening, with some lingering risk for hail and gusty winds across parts of NE. Overall severe potential should continue to gradually wane through the evening and severe probabilities have been reduced where boundary layer stabilization has occurred and instability has weakened. ...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic... Isolated strong gusts of 40-50 mph remain possible for another hour or two, particularly across parts of NC/SC where a couple of forward propagating clusters persists. However, weak shear and a nocturnally stabilizing boundary layer should result in a gradual weakening trend. ..Leitman.. 06/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing swaths of damaging gusts (some greater than 80 mph), large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a couple tornadoes are possible through tonight, especially across parts of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...KS/OK/MO vicinity... One or more thunderstorm clusters/small bows are still forecast to develop and shift east across the outlook area through tonight as a surface front/composite outflow begins to develop southeast. Thunderstorm coverage has recently increased across portions of central KS, likely in response to a strengthening low-level jet noted in regional VWP data over the last hour. Where strong heating has occurred and dewpoints remain in the upper 60s to low 70s F, intense convection is still possible. Isolated significant gusts remain possible, supported by the 00z OUN RAOB showing midlevel lapse rates near 8.5 C/km amid 3500 J/kg MLCAPE. The Moderate risk (level 4 of 5) has been trimmed on the north and western edges and confined to a thin strip of southern KS into northern OK where the surface outflow is located along with the stronger instability gradient. This corridor should have the greatest risk for significant severe thunderstorms into the nighttime hours. ...WY/CO into NE... Severe potential has waned across the High Plains this evening, with some lingering risk for hail and gusty winds across parts of NE. Overall severe potential should continue to gradually wane through the evening and severe probabilities have been reduced where boundary layer stabilization has occurred and instability has weakened. ...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic... Isolated strong gusts of 40-50 mph remain possible for another hour or two, particularly across parts of NC/SC where a couple of forward propagating clusters persists. However, weak shear and a nocturnally stabilizing boundary layer should result in a gradual weakening trend. ..Leitman.. 06/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing swaths of damaging gusts (some greater than 80 mph), large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a couple tornadoes are possible through tonight, especially across parts of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...KS/OK/MO vicinity... One or more thunderstorm clusters/small bows are still forecast to develop and shift east across the outlook area through tonight as a surface front/composite outflow begins to develop southeast. Thunderstorm coverage has recently increased across portions of central KS, likely in response to a strengthening low-level jet noted in regional VWP data over the last hour. Where strong heating has occurred and dewpoints remain in the upper 60s to low 70s F, intense convection is still possible. Isolated significant gusts remain possible, supported by the 00z OUN RAOB showing midlevel lapse rates near 8.5 C/km amid 3500 J/kg MLCAPE. The Moderate risk (level 4 of 5) has been trimmed on the north and western edges and confined to a thin strip of southern KS into northern OK where the surface outflow is located along with the stronger instability gradient. This corridor should have the greatest risk for significant severe thunderstorms into the nighttime hours. ...WY/CO into NE... Severe potential has waned across the High Plains this evening, with some lingering risk for hail and gusty winds across parts of NE. Overall severe potential should continue to gradually wane through the evening and severe probabilities have been reduced where boundary layer stabilization has occurred and instability has weakened. ...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic... Isolated strong gusts of 40-50 mph remain possible for another hour or two, particularly across parts of NC/SC where a couple of forward propagating clusters persists. However, weak shear and a nocturnally stabilizing boundary layer should result in a gradual weakening trend. ..Leitman.. 06/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing swaths of damaging gusts (some greater than 80 mph), large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a couple tornadoes are possible through tonight, especially across parts of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...KS/OK/MO vicinity... One or more thunderstorm clusters/small bows are still forecast to develop and shift east across the outlook area through tonight as a surface front/composite outflow begins to develop southeast. Thunderstorm coverage has recently increased across portions of central KS, likely in response to a strengthening low-level jet noted in regional VWP data over the last hour. Where strong heating has occurred and dewpoints remain in the upper 60s to low 70s F, intense convection is still possible. Isolated significant gusts remain possible, supported by the 00z OUN RAOB showing midlevel lapse rates near 8.5 C/km amid 3500 J/kg MLCAPE. The Moderate risk (level 4 of 5) has been trimmed on the north and western edges and confined to a thin strip of southern KS into northern OK where the surface outflow is located along with the stronger instability gradient. This corridor should have the greatest risk for significant severe thunderstorms into the nighttime hours. ...WY/CO into NE... Severe potential has waned across the High Plains this evening, with some lingering risk for hail and gusty winds across parts of NE. Overall severe potential should continue to gradually wane through the evening and severe probabilities have been reduced where boundary layer stabilization has occurred and instability has weakened. ...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic... Isolated strong gusts of 40-50 mph remain possible for another hour or two, particularly across parts of NC/SC where a couple of forward propagating clusters persists. However, weak shear and a nocturnally stabilizing boundary layer should result in a gradual weakening trend. ..Leitman.. 06/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing swaths of damaging gusts (some greater than 80 mph), large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a couple tornadoes are possible through tonight, especially across parts of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...KS/OK/MO vicinity... One or more thunderstorm clusters/small bows are still forecast to develop and shift east across the outlook area through tonight as a surface front/composite outflow begins to develop southeast. Thunderstorm coverage has recently increased across portions of central KS, likely in response to a strengthening low-level jet noted in regional VWP data over the last hour. Where strong heating has occurred and dewpoints remain in the upper 60s to low 70s F, intense convection is still possible. Isolated significant gusts remain possible, supported by the 00z OUN RAOB showing midlevel lapse rates near 8.5 C/km amid 3500 J/kg MLCAPE. The Moderate risk (level 4 of 5) has been trimmed on the north and western edges and confined to a thin strip of southern KS into northern OK where the surface outflow is located along with the stronger instability gradient. This corridor should have the greatest risk for significant severe thunderstorms into the nighttime hours. ...WY/CO into NE... Severe potential has waned across the High Plains this evening, with some lingering risk for hail and gusty winds across parts of NE. Overall severe potential should continue to gradually wane through the evening and severe probabilities have been reduced where boundary layer stabilization has occurred and instability has weakened. ...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic... Isolated strong gusts of 40-50 mph remain possible for another hour or two, particularly across parts of NC/SC where a couple of forward propagating clusters persists. However, weak shear and a nocturnally stabilizing boundary layer should result in a gradual weakening trend. ..Leitman.. 06/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing swaths of damaging gusts (some greater than 80 mph), large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a couple tornadoes are possible through tonight, especially across parts of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...KS/OK/MO vicinity... One or more thunderstorm clusters/small bows are still forecast to develop and shift east across the outlook area through tonight as a surface front/composite outflow begins to develop southeast. Thunderstorm coverage has recently increased across portions of central KS, likely in response to a strengthening low-level jet noted in regional VWP data over the last hour. Where strong heating has occurred and dewpoints remain in the upper 60s to low 70s F, intense convection is still possible. Isolated significant gusts remain possible, supported by the 00z OUN RAOB showing midlevel lapse rates near 8.5 C/km amid 3500 J/kg MLCAPE. The Moderate risk (level 4 of 5) has been trimmed on the north and western edges and confined to a thin strip of southern KS into northern OK where the surface outflow is located along with the stronger instability gradient. This corridor should have the greatest risk for significant severe thunderstorms into the nighttime hours. ...WY/CO into NE... Severe potential has waned across the High Plains this evening, with some lingering risk for hail and gusty winds across parts of NE. Overall severe potential should continue to gradually wane through the evening and severe probabilities have been reduced where boundary layer stabilization has occurred and instability has weakened. ...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic... Isolated strong gusts of 40-50 mph remain possible for another hour or two, particularly across parts of NC/SC where a couple of forward propagating clusters persists. However, weak shear and a nocturnally stabilizing boundary layer should result in a gradual weakening trend. ..Leitman.. 06/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing swaths of damaging gusts (some greater than 80 mph), large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a couple tornadoes are possible through tonight, especially across parts of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...KS/OK/MO vicinity... One or more thunderstorm clusters/small bows are still forecast to develop and shift east across the outlook area through tonight as a surface front/composite outflow begins to develop southeast. Thunderstorm coverage has recently increased across portions of central KS, likely in response to a strengthening low-level jet noted in regional VWP data over the last hour. Where strong heating has occurred and dewpoints remain in the upper 60s to low 70s F, intense convection is still possible. Isolated significant gusts remain possible, supported by the 00z OUN RAOB showing midlevel lapse rates near 8.5 C/km amid 3500 J/kg MLCAPE. The Moderate risk (level 4 of 5) has been trimmed on the north and western edges and confined to a thin strip of southern KS into northern OK where the surface outflow is located along with the stronger instability gradient. This corridor should have the greatest risk for significant severe thunderstorms into the nighttime hours. ...WY/CO into NE... Severe potential has waned across the High Plains this evening, with some lingering risk for hail and gusty winds across parts of NE. Overall severe potential should continue to gradually wane through the evening and severe probabilities have been reduced where boundary layer stabilization has occurred and instability has weakened. ...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic... Isolated strong gusts of 40-50 mph remain possible for another hour or two, particularly across parts of NC/SC where a couple of forward propagating clusters persists. However, weak shear and a nocturnally stabilizing boundary layer should result in a gradual weakening trend. ..Leitman.. 06/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing swaths of damaging gusts (some greater than 80 mph), large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a couple tornadoes are possible through tonight, especially across parts of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. ...KS/OK/MO vicinity... One or more thunderstorm clusters/small bows are still forecast to develop and shift east across the outlook area through tonight as a surface front/composite outflow begins to develop southeast. Thunderstorm coverage has recently increased across portions of central KS, likely in response to a strengthening low-level jet noted in regional VWP data over the last hour. Where strong heating has occurred and dewpoints remain in the upper 60s to low 70s F, intense convection is still possible. Isolated significant gusts remain possible, supported by the 00z OUN RAOB showing midlevel lapse rates near 8.5 C/km amid 3500 J/kg MLCAPE. The Moderate risk (level 4 of 5) has been trimmed on the north and western edges and confined to a thin strip of southern KS into northern OK where the surface outflow is located along with the stronger instability gradient. This corridor should have the greatest risk for significant severe thunderstorms into the nighttime hours. ...WY/CO into NE... Severe potential has waned across the High Plains this evening, with some lingering risk for hail and gusty winds across parts of NE. Overall severe potential should continue to gradually wane through the evening and severe probabilities have been reduced where boundary layer stabilization has occurred and instability has weakened. ...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic... Isolated strong gusts of 40-50 mph remain possible for another hour or two, particularly across parts of NC/SC where a couple of forward propagating clusters persists. However, weak shear and a nocturnally stabilizing boundary layer should result in a gradual weakening trend. ..Leitman.. 06/18/2025 Read more