Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are forecast on Thursday from parts of New England into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...Parts of New England to the Southeast... A mid-level trough and associated surface cold front will move east from the eastern Great Lakes to the Atlantic coast on Thursday. Ahead of this cold front, upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are forecast from the southeast to New England. Modest heating ahead of this front should result in moderate to strong instability ahead of the cold front Thursday afternoon. Mid-level flow will gradually strengthen from south to north with increasing storm organization/severity expected. The most focused zone of a potentially greater severe weather threat will likely exist from eastern Pennsylvania northward into eastern New York and Vermont. While instability is not forecast to be as strong this far north, strong forcing and strong shear may result in supercells and organized bowing segments with damaging wind gusts as the primary hazard. ...Southwest Montana... Weak height falls are expected across western Montana on Thursday afternoon/evening. Weak instability is forecast to develop across the region as temperatures warm into the 80s. These high-based thunderstorms will be capable of isolated severe wind gusts given the very deeply mixed boundary layer and strong shear across the region. ...Upper Midwest... A southeastward moving mid-level shortwave trough will traverse northern Minnesota and Wisconsin Thursday afternoon. Some strengthening of the low-level jet is anticipated as this shifts southeast with increasing isentropic ascent. Moderate instability within this zone may permit isolated strong to severe storms where isentropic ascent is maximized. Large hail and damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat. ...Northern Plains... Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across the northern Plains Thursday afternoon/evening. Storms may develop along the dryline/surface trough. However, rising heights aloft may keep convective coverage limited across the region. In addition, a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet may result in additional strong to severe storm development across portions of the northern Plains Thursday night. ..Bentley.. 06/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are forecast on Thursday from parts of New England into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...Parts of New England to the Southeast... A mid-level trough and associated surface cold front will move east from the eastern Great Lakes to the Atlantic coast on Thursday. Ahead of this cold front, upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are forecast from the southeast to New England. Modest heating ahead of this front should result in moderate to strong instability ahead of the cold front Thursday afternoon. Mid-level flow will gradually strengthen from south to north with increasing storm organization/severity expected. The most focused zone of a potentially greater severe weather threat will likely exist from eastern Pennsylvania northward into eastern New York and Vermont. While instability is not forecast to be as strong this far north, strong forcing and strong shear may result in supercells and organized bowing segments with damaging wind gusts as the primary hazard. ...Southwest Montana... Weak height falls are expected across western Montana on Thursday afternoon/evening. Weak instability is forecast to develop across the region as temperatures warm into the 80s. These high-based thunderstorms will be capable of isolated severe wind gusts given the very deeply mixed boundary layer and strong shear across the region. ...Upper Midwest... A southeastward moving mid-level shortwave trough will traverse northern Minnesota and Wisconsin Thursday afternoon. Some strengthening of the low-level jet is anticipated as this shifts southeast with increasing isentropic ascent. Moderate instability within this zone may permit isolated strong to severe storms where isentropic ascent is maximized. Large hail and damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat. ...Northern Plains... Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across the northern Plains Thursday afternoon/evening. Storms may develop along the dryline/surface trough. However, rising heights aloft may keep convective coverage limited across the region. In addition, a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet may result in additional strong to severe storm development across portions of the northern Plains Thursday night. ..Bentley.. 06/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are forecast on Thursday from parts of New England into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...Parts of New England to the Southeast... A mid-level trough and associated surface cold front will move east from the eastern Great Lakes to the Atlantic coast on Thursday. Ahead of this cold front, upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are forecast from the southeast to New England. Modest heating ahead of this front should result in moderate to strong instability ahead of the cold front Thursday afternoon. Mid-level flow will gradually strengthen from south to north with increasing storm organization/severity expected. The most focused zone of a potentially greater severe weather threat will likely exist from eastern Pennsylvania northward into eastern New York and Vermont. While instability is not forecast to be as strong this far north, strong forcing and strong shear may result in supercells and organized bowing segments with damaging wind gusts as the primary hazard. ...Southwest Montana... Weak height falls are expected across western Montana on Thursday afternoon/evening. Weak instability is forecast to develop across the region as temperatures warm into the 80s. These high-based thunderstorms will be capable of isolated severe wind gusts given the very deeply mixed boundary layer and strong shear across the region. ...Upper Midwest... A southeastward moving mid-level shortwave trough will traverse northern Minnesota and Wisconsin Thursday afternoon. Some strengthening of the low-level jet is anticipated as this shifts southeast with increasing isentropic ascent. Moderate instability within this zone may permit isolated strong to severe storms where isentropic ascent is maximized. Large hail and damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat. ...Northern Plains... Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across the northern Plains Thursday afternoon/evening. Storms may develop along the dryline/surface trough. However, rising heights aloft may keep convective coverage limited across the region. In addition, a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet may result in additional strong to severe storm development across portions of the northern Plains Thursday night. ..Bentley.. 06/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are forecast on Thursday from parts of New England into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...Parts of New England to the Southeast... A mid-level trough and associated surface cold front will move east from the eastern Great Lakes to the Atlantic coast on Thursday. Ahead of this cold front, upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are forecast from the southeast to New England. Modest heating ahead of this front should result in moderate to strong instability ahead of the cold front Thursday afternoon. Mid-level flow will gradually strengthen from south to north with increasing storm organization/severity expected. The most focused zone of a potentially greater severe weather threat will likely exist from eastern Pennsylvania northward into eastern New York and Vermont. While instability is not forecast to be as strong this far north, strong forcing and strong shear may result in supercells and organized bowing segments with damaging wind gusts as the primary hazard. ...Southwest Montana... Weak height falls are expected across western Montana on Thursday afternoon/evening. Weak instability is forecast to develop across the region as temperatures warm into the 80s. These high-based thunderstorms will be capable of isolated severe wind gusts given the very deeply mixed boundary layer and strong shear across the region. ...Upper Midwest... A southeastward moving mid-level shortwave trough will traverse northern Minnesota and Wisconsin Thursday afternoon. Some strengthening of the low-level jet is anticipated as this shifts southeast with increasing isentropic ascent. Moderate instability within this zone may permit isolated strong to severe storms where isentropic ascent is maximized. Large hail and damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat. ...Northern Plains... Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across the northern Plains Thursday afternoon/evening. Storms may develop along the dryline/surface trough. However, rising heights aloft may keep convective coverage limited across the region. In addition, a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet may result in additional strong to severe storm development across portions of the northern Plains Thursday night. ..Bentley.. 06/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are forecast on Thursday from parts of New England into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...Parts of New England to the Southeast... A mid-level trough and associated surface cold front will move east from the eastern Great Lakes to the Atlantic coast on Thursday. Ahead of this cold front, upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are forecast from the southeast to New England. Modest heating ahead of this front should result in moderate to strong instability ahead of the cold front Thursday afternoon. Mid-level flow will gradually strengthen from south to north with increasing storm organization/severity expected. The most focused zone of a potentially greater severe weather threat will likely exist from eastern Pennsylvania northward into eastern New York and Vermont. While instability is not forecast to be as strong this far north, strong forcing and strong shear may result in supercells and organized bowing segments with damaging wind gusts as the primary hazard. ...Southwest Montana... Weak height falls are expected across western Montana on Thursday afternoon/evening. Weak instability is forecast to develop across the region as temperatures warm into the 80s. These high-based thunderstorms will be capable of isolated severe wind gusts given the very deeply mixed boundary layer and strong shear across the region. ...Upper Midwest... A southeastward moving mid-level shortwave trough will traverse northern Minnesota and Wisconsin Thursday afternoon. Some strengthening of the low-level jet is anticipated as this shifts southeast with increasing isentropic ascent. Moderate instability within this zone may permit isolated strong to severe storms where isentropic ascent is maximized. Large hail and damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat. ...Northern Plains... Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across the northern Plains Thursday afternoon/evening. Storms may develop along the dryline/surface trough. However, rising heights aloft may keep convective coverage limited across the region. In addition, a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet may result in additional strong to severe storm development across portions of the northern Plains Thursday night. ..Bentley.. 06/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are forecast on Thursday from parts of New England into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...Parts of New England to the Southeast... A mid-level trough and associated surface cold front will move east from the eastern Great Lakes to the Atlantic coast on Thursday. Ahead of this cold front, upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are forecast from the southeast to New England. Modest heating ahead of this front should result in moderate to strong instability ahead of the cold front Thursday afternoon. Mid-level flow will gradually strengthen from south to north with increasing storm organization/severity expected. The most focused zone of a potentially greater severe weather threat will likely exist from eastern Pennsylvania northward into eastern New York and Vermont. While instability is not forecast to be as strong this far north, strong forcing and strong shear may result in supercells and organized bowing segments with damaging wind gusts as the primary hazard. ...Southwest Montana... Weak height falls are expected across western Montana on Thursday afternoon/evening. Weak instability is forecast to develop across the region as temperatures warm into the 80s. These high-based thunderstorms will be capable of isolated severe wind gusts given the very deeply mixed boundary layer and strong shear across the region. ...Upper Midwest... A southeastward moving mid-level shortwave trough will traverse northern Minnesota and Wisconsin Thursday afternoon. Some strengthening of the low-level jet is anticipated as this shifts southeast with increasing isentropic ascent. Moderate instability within this zone may permit isolated strong to severe storms where isentropic ascent is maximized. Large hail and damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat. ...Northern Plains... Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across the northern Plains Thursday afternoon/evening. Storms may develop along the dryline/surface trough. However, rising heights aloft may keep convective coverage limited across the region. In addition, a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet may result in additional strong to severe storm development across portions of the northern Plains Thursday night. ..Bentley.. 06/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are forecast on Thursday from parts of New England into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...Parts of New England to the Southeast... A mid-level trough and associated surface cold front will move east from the eastern Great Lakes to the Atlantic coast on Thursday. Ahead of this cold front, upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are forecast from the southeast to New England. Modest heating ahead of this front should result in moderate to strong instability ahead of the cold front Thursday afternoon. Mid-level flow will gradually strengthen from south to north with increasing storm organization/severity expected. The most focused zone of a potentially greater severe weather threat will likely exist from eastern Pennsylvania northward into eastern New York and Vermont. While instability is not forecast to be as strong this far north, strong forcing and strong shear may result in supercells and organized bowing segments with damaging wind gusts as the primary hazard. ...Southwest Montana... Weak height falls are expected across western Montana on Thursday afternoon/evening. Weak instability is forecast to develop across the region as temperatures warm into the 80s. These high-based thunderstorms will be capable of isolated severe wind gusts given the very deeply mixed boundary layer and strong shear across the region. ...Upper Midwest... A southeastward moving mid-level shortwave trough will traverse northern Minnesota and Wisconsin Thursday afternoon. Some strengthening of the low-level jet is anticipated as this shifts southeast with increasing isentropic ascent. Moderate instability within this zone may permit isolated strong to severe storms where isentropic ascent is maximized. Large hail and damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat. ...Northern Plains... Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across the northern Plains Thursday afternoon/evening. Storms may develop along the dryline/surface trough. However, rising heights aloft may keep convective coverage limited across the region. In addition, a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet may result in additional strong to severe storm development across portions of the northern Plains Thursday night. ..Bentley.. 06/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are forecast on Thursday from parts of New England into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...Parts of New England to the Southeast... A mid-level trough and associated surface cold front will move east from the eastern Great Lakes to the Atlantic coast on Thursday. Ahead of this cold front, upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are forecast from the southeast to New England. Modest heating ahead of this front should result in moderate to strong instability ahead of the cold front Thursday afternoon. Mid-level flow will gradually strengthen from south to north with increasing storm organization/severity expected. The most focused zone of a potentially greater severe weather threat will likely exist from eastern Pennsylvania northward into eastern New York and Vermont. While instability is not forecast to be as strong this far north, strong forcing and strong shear may result in supercells and organized bowing segments with damaging wind gusts as the primary hazard. ...Southwest Montana... Weak height falls are expected across western Montana on Thursday afternoon/evening. Weak instability is forecast to develop across the region as temperatures warm into the 80s. These high-based thunderstorms will be capable of isolated severe wind gusts given the very deeply mixed boundary layer and strong shear across the region. ...Upper Midwest... A southeastward moving mid-level shortwave trough will traverse northern Minnesota and Wisconsin Thursday afternoon. Some strengthening of the low-level jet is anticipated as this shifts southeast with increasing isentropic ascent. Moderate instability within this zone may permit isolated strong to severe storms where isentropic ascent is maximized. Large hail and damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat. ...Northern Plains... Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across the northern Plains Thursday afternoon/evening. Storms may develop along the dryline/surface trough. However, rising heights aloft may keep convective coverage limited across the region. In addition, a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet may result in additional strong to severe storm development across portions of the northern Plains Thursday night. ..Bentley.. 06/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are forecast on Thursday from parts of New England into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...Parts of New England to the Southeast... A mid-level trough and associated surface cold front will move east from the eastern Great Lakes to the Atlantic coast on Thursday. Ahead of this cold front, upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are forecast from the southeast to New England. Modest heating ahead of this front should result in moderate to strong instability ahead of the cold front Thursday afternoon. Mid-level flow will gradually strengthen from south to north with increasing storm organization/severity expected. The most focused zone of a potentially greater severe weather threat will likely exist from eastern Pennsylvania northward into eastern New York and Vermont. While instability is not forecast to be as strong this far north, strong forcing and strong shear may result in supercells and organized bowing segments with damaging wind gusts as the primary hazard. ...Southwest Montana... Weak height falls are expected across western Montana on Thursday afternoon/evening. Weak instability is forecast to develop across the region as temperatures warm into the 80s. These high-based thunderstorms will be capable of isolated severe wind gusts given the very deeply mixed boundary layer and strong shear across the region. ...Upper Midwest... A southeastward moving mid-level shortwave trough will traverse northern Minnesota and Wisconsin Thursday afternoon. Some strengthening of the low-level jet is anticipated as this shifts southeast with increasing isentropic ascent. Moderate instability within this zone may permit isolated strong to severe storms where isentropic ascent is maximized. Large hail and damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat. ...Northern Plains... Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across the northern Plains Thursday afternoon/evening. Storms may develop along the dryline/surface trough. However, rising heights aloft may keep convective coverage limited across the region. In addition, a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet may result in additional strong to severe storm development across portions of the northern Plains Thursday night. ..Bentley.. 06/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are forecast on Thursday from parts of New England into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...Parts of New England to the Southeast... A mid-level trough and associated surface cold front will move east from the eastern Great Lakes to the Atlantic coast on Thursday. Ahead of this cold front, upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are forecast from the southeast to New England. Modest heating ahead of this front should result in moderate to strong instability ahead of the cold front Thursday afternoon. Mid-level flow will gradually strengthen from south to north with increasing storm organization/severity expected. The most focused zone of a potentially greater severe weather threat will likely exist from eastern Pennsylvania northward into eastern New York and Vermont. While instability is not forecast to be as strong this far north, strong forcing and strong shear may result in supercells and organized bowing segments with damaging wind gusts as the primary hazard. ...Southwest Montana... Weak height falls are expected across western Montana on Thursday afternoon/evening. Weak instability is forecast to develop across the region as temperatures warm into the 80s. These high-based thunderstorms will be capable of isolated severe wind gusts given the very deeply mixed boundary layer and strong shear across the region. ...Upper Midwest... A southeastward moving mid-level shortwave trough will traverse northern Minnesota and Wisconsin Thursday afternoon. Some strengthening of the low-level jet is anticipated as this shifts southeast with increasing isentropic ascent. Moderate instability within this zone may permit isolated strong to severe storms where isentropic ascent is maximized. Large hail and damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat. ...Northern Plains... Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across the northern Plains Thursday afternoon/evening. Storms may develop along the dryline/surface trough. However, rising heights aloft may keep convective coverage limited across the region. In addition, a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet may result in additional strong to severe storm development across portions of the northern Plains Thursday night. ..Bentley.. 06/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are forecast on Thursday from parts of New England into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...Parts of New England to the Southeast... A mid-level trough and associated surface cold front will move east from the eastern Great Lakes to the Atlantic coast on Thursday. Ahead of this cold front, upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are forecast from the southeast to New England. Modest heating ahead of this front should result in moderate to strong instability ahead of the cold front Thursday afternoon. Mid-level flow will gradually strengthen from south to north with increasing storm organization/severity expected. The most focused zone of a potentially greater severe weather threat will likely exist from eastern Pennsylvania northward into eastern New York and Vermont. While instability is not forecast to be as strong this far north, strong forcing and strong shear may result in supercells and organized bowing segments with damaging wind gusts as the primary hazard. ...Southwest Montana... Weak height falls are expected across western Montana on Thursday afternoon/evening. Weak instability is forecast to develop across the region as temperatures warm into the 80s. These high-based thunderstorms will be capable of isolated severe wind gusts given the very deeply mixed boundary layer and strong shear across the region. ...Upper Midwest... A southeastward moving mid-level shortwave trough will traverse northern Minnesota and Wisconsin Thursday afternoon. Some strengthening of the low-level jet is anticipated as this shifts southeast with increasing isentropic ascent. Moderate instability within this zone may permit isolated strong to severe storms where isentropic ascent is maximized. Large hail and damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat. ...Northern Plains... Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across the northern Plains Thursday afternoon/evening. Storms may develop along the dryline/surface trough. However, rising heights aloft may keep convective coverage limited across the region. In addition, a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet may result in additional strong to severe storm development across portions of the northern Plains Thursday night. ..Bentley.. 06/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are forecast on Thursday from parts of New England into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...Parts of New England to the Southeast... A mid-level trough and associated surface cold front will move east from the eastern Great Lakes to the Atlantic coast on Thursday. Ahead of this cold front, upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are forecast from the southeast to New England. Modest heating ahead of this front should result in moderate to strong instability ahead of the cold front Thursday afternoon. Mid-level flow will gradually strengthen from south to north with increasing storm organization/severity expected. The most focused zone of a potentially greater severe weather threat will likely exist from eastern Pennsylvania northward into eastern New York and Vermont. While instability is not forecast to be as strong this far north, strong forcing and strong shear may result in supercells and organized bowing segments with damaging wind gusts as the primary hazard. ...Southwest Montana... Weak height falls are expected across western Montana on Thursday afternoon/evening. Weak instability is forecast to develop across the region as temperatures warm into the 80s. These high-based thunderstorms will be capable of isolated severe wind gusts given the very deeply mixed boundary layer and strong shear across the region. ...Upper Midwest... A southeastward moving mid-level shortwave trough will traverse northern Minnesota and Wisconsin Thursday afternoon. Some strengthening of the low-level jet is anticipated as this shifts southeast with increasing isentropic ascent. Moderate instability within this zone may permit isolated strong to severe storms where isentropic ascent is maximized. Large hail and damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat. ...Northern Plains... Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across the northern Plains Thursday afternoon/evening. Storms may develop along the dryline/surface trough. However, rising heights aloft may keep convective coverage limited across the region. In addition, a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet may result in additional strong to severe storm development across portions of the northern Plains Thursday night. ..Bentley.. 06/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are forecast on Thursday from parts of New England into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...Parts of New England to the Southeast... A mid-level trough and associated surface cold front will move east from the eastern Great Lakes to the Atlantic coast on Thursday. Ahead of this cold front, upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are forecast from the southeast to New England. Modest heating ahead of this front should result in moderate to strong instability ahead of the cold front Thursday afternoon. Mid-level flow will gradually strengthen from south to north with increasing storm organization/severity expected. The most focused zone of a potentially greater severe weather threat will likely exist from eastern Pennsylvania northward into eastern New York and Vermont. While instability is not forecast to be as strong this far north, strong forcing and strong shear may result in supercells and organized bowing segments with damaging wind gusts as the primary hazard. ...Southwest Montana... Weak height falls are expected across western Montana on Thursday afternoon/evening. Weak instability is forecast to develop across the region as temperatures warm into the 80s. These high-based thunderstorms will be capable of isolated severe wind gusts given the very deeply mixed boundary layer and strong shear across the region. ...Upper Midwest... A southeastward moving mid-level shortwave trough will traverse northern Minnesota and Wisconsin Thursday afternoon. Some strengthening of the low-level jet is anticipated as this shifts southeast with increasing isentropic ascent. Moderate instability within this zone may permit isolated strong to severe storms where isentropic ascent is maximized. Large hail and damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat. ...Northern Plains... Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across the northern Plains Thursday afternoon/evening. Storms may develop along the dryline/surface trough. However, rising heights aloft may keep convective coverage limited across the region. In addition, a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet may result in additional strong to severe storm development across portions of the northern Plains Thursday night. ..Bentley.. 06/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are forecast on Thursday from parts of New England into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...Parts of New England to the Southeast... A mid-level trough and associated surface cold front will move east from the eastern Great Lakes to the Atlantic coast on Thursday. Ahead of this cold front, upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are forecast from the southeast to New England. Modest heating ahead of this front should result in moderate to strong instability ahead of the cold front Thursday afternoon. Mid-level flow will gradually strengthen from south to north with increasing storm organization/severity expected. The most focused zone of a potentially greater severe weather threat will likely exist from eastern Pennsylvania northward into eastern New York and Vermont. While instability is not forecast to be as strong this far north, strong forcing and strong shear may result in supercells and organized bowing segments with damaging wind gusts as the primary hazard. ...Southwest Montana... Weak height falls are expected across western Montana on Thursday afternoon/evening. Weak instability is forecast to develop across the region as temperatures warm into the 80s. These high-based thunderstorms will be capable of isolated severe wind gusts given the very deeply mixed boundary layer and strong shear across the region. ...Upper Midwest... A southeastward moving mid-level shortwave trough will traverse northern Minnesota and Wisconsin Thursday afternoon. Some strengthening of the low-level jet is anticipated as this shifts southeast with increasing isentropic ascent. Moderate instability within this zone may permit isolated strong to severe storms where isentropic ascent is maximized. Large hail and damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat. ...Northern Plains... Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across the northern Plains Thursday afternoon/evening. Storms may develop along the dryline/surface trough. However, rising heights aloft may keep convective coverage limited across the region. In addition, a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet may result in additional strong to severe storm development across portions of the northern Plains Thursday night. ..Bentley.. 06/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are forecast on Thursday from parts of New England into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...Parts of New England to the Southeast... A mid-level trough and associated surface cold front will move east from the eastern Great Lakes to the Atlantic coast on Thursday. Ahead of this cold front, upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are forecast from the southeast to New England. Modest heating ahead of this front should result in moderate to strong instability ahead of the cold front Thursday afternoon. Mid-level flow will gradually strengthen from south to north with increasing storm organization/severity expected. The most focused zone of a potentially greater severe weather threat will likely exist from eastern Pennsylvania northward into eastern New York and Vermont. While instability is not forecast to be as strong this far north, strong forcing and strong shear may result in supercells and organized bowing segments with damaging wind gusts as the primary hazard. ...Southwest Montana... Weak height falls are expected across western Montana on Thursday afternoon/evening. Weak instability is forecast to develop across the region as temperatures warm into the 80s. These high-based thunderstorms will be capable of isolated severe wind gusts given the very deeply mixed boundary layer and strong shear across the region. ...Upper Midwest... A southeastward moving mid-level shortwave trough will traverse northern Minnesota and Wisconsin Thursday afternoon. Some strengthening of the low-level jet is anticipated as this shifts southeast with increasing isentropic ascent. Moderate instability within this zone may permit isolated strong to severe storms where isentropic ascent is maximized. Large hail and damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat. ...Northern Plains... Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across the northern Plains Thursday afternoon/evening. Storms may develop along the dryline/surface trough. However, rising heights aloft may keep convective coverage limited across the region. In addition, a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet may result in additional strong to severe storm development across portions of the northern Plains Thursday night. ..Bentley.. 06/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are forecast on Thursday from parts of New England into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. ...Parts of New England to the Southeast... A mid-level trough and associated surface cold front will move east from the eastern Great Lakes to the Atlantic coast on Thursday. Ahead of this cold front, upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are forecast from the southeast to New England. Modest heating ahead of this front should result in moderate to strong instability ahead of the cold front Thursday afternoon. Mid-level flow will gradually strengthen from south to north with increasing storm organization/severity expected. The most focused zone of a potentially greater severe weather threat will likely exist from eastern Pennsylvania northward into eastern New York and Vermont. While instability is not forecast to be as strong this far north, strong forcing and strong shear may result in supercells and organized bowing segments with damaging wind gusts as the primary hazard. ...Southwest Montana... Weak height falls are expected across western Montana on Thursday afternoon/evening. Weak instability is forecast to develop across the region as temperatures warm into the 80s. These high-based thunderstorms will be capable of isolated severe wind gusts given the very deeply mixed boundary layer and strong shear across the region. ...Upper Midwest... A southeastward moving mid-level shortwave trough will traverse northern Minnesota and Wisconsin Thursday afternoon. Some strengthening of the low-level jet is anticipated as this shifts southeast with increasing isentropic ascent. Moderate instability within this zone may permit isolated strong to severe storms where isentropic ascent is maximized. Large hail and damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat. ...Northern Plains... Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop across the northern Plains Thursday afternoon/evening. Storms may develop along the dryline/surface trough. However, rising heights aloft may keep convective coverage limited across the region. In addition, a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet may result in additional strong to severe storm development across portions of the northern Plains Thursday night. ..Bentley.. 06/17/2025 Read more

WW 0428 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 428 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1333 ..WENDT..06/17/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 428 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-013-014-025-027-031-035-039-041-043-055-059-069-071- 073-075-087-089-093-101-119-121-123-172040- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE BOULDER BROOMFIELD CROWLEY CUSTER DENVER DOUGLAS ELBERT EL PASO FREMONT HUERFANO JEFFERSON LARIMER LAS ANIMAS LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN OTERO PARK PUEBLO TELLER WASHINGTON WELD NEC007-033-105-123-157-165-172040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER CHEYENNE KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SIOUX Read more

MD 1331 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST AL...NORTHWEST GA...SOUTHEAST TN
Mesoscale Discussion 1331 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Areas affected...central to northeast AL...northwest GA...southeast TN Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 171756Z - 171930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Weakly organized multicell clustering may yield sporadic strong gusts and localized wind damage through late afternoon. A watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...An east-northeastward moving MCV over western TN has aided in scattered to widespread convection across the Deep South towards the central Gulf Coast. A confined belt of moderate 700-500 mb southwesterlies is present across northern AL per the HTX VWP data, with speeds progressively weaker with southern extent. Greater clustering has largely occurred in the progressively weak shear environment from central AL southward. It is plausible that a loosely organized cluster might emerge to the east-northeast from central AL along the southern extent of the flow enhancement. With largely mid 80s surface temperatures downstream, sporadic strong gusts from 45-55 mph should be the common hazard. ..Grams/Hart.. 06/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN... LAT...LON 34588686 35088662 35318606 35748507 35848423 35708387 35318379 34818424 34368456 33858489 33318551 32888606 32728639 32698698 32828732 33778682 34588686 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

MD 1330 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR THE FRONT RANGE OF CO AND FAR SOUTHEAST WY
Mesoscale Discussion 1330 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Areas affected...the Front Range of CO and far southeast WY Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 171608Z - 171815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Initially isolated storms along I-70 in east-central Colorado will pose a risk for severe hail. More widespread storms are expected to form along the Front Range by early afternoon with a primary threat of large to very large hail. A watch issuance is likely, with some uncertainty on timing. DISCUSSION...Convection has formed early atop the pervasive stratus deck across east-central/southeast CO, with more pronounced insolation in a confined wedge to its north across northeast CO. While the boundary layer is cool and still somewhat stable, a risk for severe hail may develop with this localized area of storms given sufficient deep-layer shear. The pervasive stratus is indicative of the seasonably moist air mass banked against the southern Rockies. Forecast soundings suggest only modest boundary-layer heating is needed for uncapped parcels, with most 12Z guidance indicative of scattered to widespread storms along the Front Range by early afternoon. With weak low-level shear, overall setup should be favorable for large to very large hail potential across the I-25 corridor. Very large hail appears more probable across the southern portion of the region where effective bulk shear should be maximized across the COS/PUB vicinity. ..Grams/Hart.. 06/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 39430310 38730310 37550395 37760487 38340517 38870522 39940524 40360532 40660536 41110529 41710484 41760447 41670416 41030400 39430310 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0428 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 428 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..06/17/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 428 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-013-014-025-027-031-035-039-041-043-055-059-069-071- 073-075-087-089-093-101-119-121-123-171840- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE BOULDER BROOMFIELD CROWLEY CUSTER DENVER DOUGLAS ELBERT EL PASO FREMONT HUERFANO JEFFERSON LARIMER LAS ANIMAS LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN OTERO PARK PUEBLO TELLER WASHINGTON WELD NEC007-033-105-123-157-165-171840- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER CHEYENNE KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SIOUX WYC001-009-015-021-027-031-171840- Read more