Severe Storms

WW 0418 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 418 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW 3HT TO 60 SE HVR. ..MARSH..06/16/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 418 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC003-005-011-017-019-021-025-027-033-037-045-055-065-069-071- 075-079-083-085-087-091-095-097-103-105-107-109-111-160140- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG HORN BLAINE CARTER CUSTER DANIELS DAWSON FALLON FERGUS GARFIELD GOLDEN VALLEY JUDITH BASIN MCCONE MUSSELSHELL PETROLEUM PHILLIPS POWDER RIVER PRAIRIE RICHLAND ROOSEVELT ROSEBUD SHERIDAN STILLWATER SWEET GRASS TREASURE VALLEY WHEATLAND WIBAUX YELLOWSTONE WYC033-160140- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE SHERIDAN Read more

WW 0420 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0420 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0420 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0420 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1305 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 418... FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1305 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0553 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Areas affected...Central and Eastern Montana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 418... Valid 152253Z - 160030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 418 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds will continue to increase this afternoon. With time an evolution to one or more lines of thunderstorms should occur, bringing with it an increasing threat of damaging winds. DISCUSSION...Several clusters of ongoing thunderstorms are present across the region this afternoon, with reports of damaging winds and measured severe hail of 1 inch in Cascade County. The large-scale environment in which these storms are developing is strongly sheared and very buoyant, with effective-layer shear on the order of 50 knots and mixed-layer CAPE between 1500 and 3000 J/kg. This will continue the potential for large hail and damaging winds. Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon as large-scale ascent associated with an approaching shortwave trough moves across the region. With time thunderstorms should grow upscale into one or more clusters that will move east through the evening hours. As this happens a transition to an increasing wind threat should occur. ..Marsh.. 06/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX... LAT...LON 45191020 46651030 47041108 46901172 47301206 47501201 47701145 48151139 48141080 48321055 48310985 48120954 48990945 48990406 44990405 44980598 44550599 44550734 44720773 44970789 44980825 45190810 45220864 45590878 45570909 45470919 45410950 45170970 45191020 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

MD 1305 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 418... FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1305 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0553 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Areas affected...Central and Eastern Montana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 418... Valid 152253Z - 160030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 418 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds will continue to increase this afternoon. With time an evolution to one or more lines of thunderstorms should occur, bringing with it an increasing threat of damaging winds. DISCUSSION...Several clusters of ongoing thunderstorms are present across the region this afternoon, with reports of damaging winds and measured severe hail of 1 inch in Cascade County. The large-scale environment in which these storms are developing is strongly sheared and very buoyant, with effective-layer shear on the order of 50 knots and mixed-layer CAPE between 1500 and 3000 J/kg. This will continue the potential for large hail and damaging winds. Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon as large-scale ascent associated with an approaching shortwave trough moves across the region. With time thunderstorms should grow upscale into one or more clusters that will move east through the evening hours. As this happens a transition to an increasing wind threat should occur. ..Marsh.. 06/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX... LAT...LON 45191020 46651030 47041108 46901172 47301206 47501201 47701145 48151139 48141080 48321055 48310985 48120954 48990945 48990406 44990405 44980598 44550599 44550734 44720773 44970789 44980825 45190810 45220864 45590878 45570909 45470919 45410950 45170970 45191020 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jun 15 22:48:09 UTC 2025.

WW 0420 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0420 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 420 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 152245Z - 160500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 420 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 445 PM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Colorado Northwest Kansas Western and West-Central Nebraska * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 445 PM until 1100 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to pose a risk for large hail and severe gusts through much of the evening. A cluster of thunderstorms may evolve by the early to mid evening, and the threat for severe gusts may persist into the late evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north northeast of Alliance NE to 35 miles west of Goodland KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 418...WW 419... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27020. ...Smith Read more

MD 1303 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1303 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Areas affected...Southeast Colorado into eastern New Mexico and far West Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 152044Z - 152245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Large hail and severe wind gusts are possible with storms that move off the terrain into southeast Colorado and eastern New Mexico. A watch is not expected in the short term, but trends will be monitored into the evening where a more organized wind threat could evolve farther east. DISCUSSION...Convection has developed from the Sangre de Cristo into the southern Rockies this afternoon as moderately moist (mid 50s F dewpoints) upslope flow has persisted over the last few hours. To the east, a modifying outflow boundary from an earlier MCS in the southern Plains has entered eastern New Mexico and should eventually reach the terrain. While this outflow is slightly cooler, low 60s F dewpoints have promoted 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE with weaker inhibition. The expectation is for storms to eventually move off the terrain as MLCIN is eroded in the next hour or two. Modestly enhanced northwesterlies aloft on the western flank of the MCV atop southeasterly surface winds supports 35-45 kts of effective shear (stronger in the north and weaker south). Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong shear should allow initial supercells to produce large hail (up to 2.5 inches) as well as severe winds. Some model guidance has suggested clustering is possible in northeast New Mexico where stronger shear and greater buoyancy will overlap. With only a weak low-level jet response in the Texas Panhandle/South Plains this evening, it is not clear how far east such a cluster/small MCS could propagate. A greater wind threat would exist if this occurs. Overall, storm coverage should remain isolated at least into early evening and a watch is not currently expected. Trends in convective evolution will need to be monitored into this evening, however. ..Wendt/Thompson.. 06/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 37080518 37160518 37820464 37840304 37220263 33450295 32800294 32160368 32130488 32780497 35000510 37080518 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 1304 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN WYOMING INTO EASTERN COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1304 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Areas affected...eastern Wyoming into eastern Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 152049Z - 152245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms expected to increase in coverage with potential for large hail and damaging wind. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity continues to increase, mainly along and near the higher terrain/upslope regions, across the Front Range into portions of eastern Wyoming. The downstream air mass remains under the influence of strong MLCIN, albeit gradually weakening along the western fringe. This weakening trend is set to continue as forcing for ascent increases with a shortwave passage this afternoon/evening. Thunderstorms are likely to form and quickly cluster this evening. Once uncapped, the downstream air mass is moderately to very unstable (with MLCAPE around 2000-3500 J/kg). Initially, supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind will be the main threat before a transition to linear bowing segments and focus for potential damaging wind into portions of Nebraska. In the short term, In addition, deepening cumulus is observed further east across Cherry County in Nebraska. A supercell or two could emerge within this region ahead of the main forcing. A watch will likely be needed to cover these potential threats in the coming hours. ..Thornton/Thompson.. 06/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 43420455 43500403 43460325 43420290 43120193 42770117 42200055 41260021 40430012 39770043 39090113 38940173 39220450 40720497 42530501 43420455 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0419 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0419 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 419 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 152215Z - 160500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 419 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 415 PM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern New Mexico West Texas * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 415 PM until 1100 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A couple of thunderstorm clusters will continue to intensify this afternoon and likely persist well into the evening across the Watch area. Severe gusts appear to be the primary hazard but isolated large hail may accompany the stronger cellular storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northeast of Raton NM to 40 miles south southwest of Hobbs NM. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 418... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30020. ...Smith Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z ...Day 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday... An eastward propagating upper-level short wave trough and associated increased mid-level flow will overspread the Southwest on Day 3/Tuesday. Critical probabilities were maintained as prolonged burn periods with poor to moderate RH recoveries and single digit daytime RH values combine with southwest winds of 15-25 mph across eastern Arizona and western New Mexico. A 40 percent probability area was added for the Columbia Basin for Day 4/Tuesday as another Pacific Northwest short wave trough moves into the region supporting downslope/leeward drying and breezy west winds across the area amid dry fuels. ...Day 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A deepening upper-level trough begins to impact the western U.S. on Day 5/Thursday, promoting a multi-day fire weather threat across the Great Basin with fire weather concerns shifting east into the Southwest and Intermountain West into the weekend. Fuels will continue to dry across the region under an above normal temperature regime with dry, breezy southwest winds setting the stage for increased fire spread potential. Dry and breezy conditions could also impact ongoing active fires across the region. ..Williams.. 06/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z ...Day 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday... An eastward propagating upper-level short wave trough and associated increased mid-level flow will overspread the Southwest on Day 3/Tuesday. Critical probabilities were maintained as prolonged burn periods with poor to moderate RH recoveries and single digit daytime RH values combine with southwest winds of 15-25 mph across eastern Arizona and western New Mexico. A 40 percent probability area was added for the Columbia Basin for Day 4/Tuesday as another Pacific Northwest short wave trough moves into the region supporting downslope/leeward drying and breezy west winds across the area amid dry fuels. ...Day 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A deepening upper-level trough begins to impact the western U.S. on Day 5/Thursday, promoting a multi-day fire weather threat across the Great Basin with fire weather concerns shifting east into the Southwest and Intermountain West into the weekend. Fuels will continue to dry across the region under an above normal temperature regime with dry, breezy southwest winds setting the stage for increased fire spread potential. Dry and breezy conditions could also impact ongoing active fires across the region. ..Williams.. 06/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z ...Day 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday... An eastward propagating upper-level short wave trough and associated increased mid-level flow will overspread the Southwest on Day 3/Tuesday. Critical probabilities were maintained as prolonged burn periods with poor to moderate RH recoveries and single digit daytime RH values combine with southwest winds of 15-25 mph across eastern Arizona and western New Mexico. A 40 percent probability area was added for the Columbia Basin for Day 4/Tuesday as another Pacific Northwest short wave trough moves into the region supporting downslope/leeward drying and breezy west winds across the area amid dry fuels. ...Day 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A deepening upper-level trough begins to impact the western U.S. on Day 5/Thursday, promoting a multi-day fire weather threat across the Great Basin with fire weather concerns shifting east into the Southwest and Intermountain West into the weekend. Fuels will continue to dry across the region under an above normal temperature regime with dry, breezy southwest winds setting the stage for increased fire spread potential. Dry and breezy conditions could also impact ongoing active fires across the region. ..Williams.. 06/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z ...Day 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday... An eastward propagating upper-level short wave trough and associated increased mid-level flow will overspread the Southwest on Day 3/Tuesday. Critical probabilities were maintained as prolonged burn periods with poor to moderate RH recoveries and single digit daytime RH values combine with southwest winds of 15-25 mph across eastern Arizona and western New Mexico. A 40 percent probability area was added for the Columbia Basin for Day 4/Tuesday as another Pacific Northwest short wave trough moves into the region supporting downslope/leeward drying and breezy west winds across the area amid dry fuels. ...Day 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A deepening upper-level trough begins to impact the western U.S. on Day 5/Thursday, promoting a multi-day fire weather threat across the Great Basin with fire weather concerns shifting east into the Southwest and Intermountain West into the weekend. Fuels will continue to dry across the region under an above normal temperature regime with dry, breezy southwest winds setting the stage for increased fire spread potential. Dry and breezy conditions could also impact ongoing active fires across the region. ..Williams.. 06/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z ...Day 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday... An eastward propagating upper-level short wave trough and associated increased mid-level flow will overspread the Southwest on Day 3/Tuesday. Critical probabilities were maintained as prolonged burn periods with poor to moderate RH recoveries and single digit daytime RH values combine with southwest winds of 15-25 mph across eastern Arizona and western New Mexico. A 40 percent probability area was added for the Columbia Basin for Day 4/Tuesday as another Pacific Northwest short wave trough moves into the region supporting downslope/leeward drying and breezy west winds across the area amid dry fuels. ...Day 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A deepening upper-level trough begins to impact the western U.S. on Day 5/Thursday, promoting a multi-day fire weather threat across the Great Basin with fire weather concerns shifting east into the Southwest and Intermountain West into the weekend. Fuels will continue to dry across the region under an above normal temperature regime with dry, breezy southwest winds setting the stage for increased fire spread potential. Dry and breezy conditions could also impact ongoing active fires across the region. ..Williams.. 06/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z ...Day 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday... An eastward propagating upper-level short wave trough and associated increased mid-level flow will overspread the Southwest on Day 3/Tuesday. Critical probabilities were maintained as prolonged burn periods with poor to moderate RH recoveries and single digit daytime RH values combine with southwest winds of 15-25 mph across eastern Arizona and western New Mexico. A 40 percent probability area was added for the Columbia Basin for Day 4/Tuesday as another Pacific Northwest short wave trough moves into the region supporting downslope/leeward drying and breezy west winds across the area amid dry fuels. ...Day 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A deepening upper-level trough begins to impact the western U.S. on Day 5/Thursday, promoting a multi-day fire weather threat across the Great Basin with fire weather concerns shifting east into the Southwest and Intermountain West into the weekend. Fuels will continue to dry across the region under an above normal temperature regime with dry, breezy southwest winds setting the stage for increased fire spread potential. Dry and breezy conditions could also impact ongoing active fires across the region. ..Williams.. 06/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z ...Day 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday... An eastward propagating upper-level short wave trough and associated increased mid-level flow will overspread the Southwest on Day 3/Tuesday. Critical probabilities were maintained as prolonged burn periods with poor to moderate RH recoveries and single digit daytime RH values combine with southwest winds of 15-25 mph across eastern Arizona and western New Mexico. A 40 percent probability area was added for the Columbia Basin for Day 4/Tuesday as another Pacific Northwest short wave trough moves into the region supporting downslope/leeward drying and breezy west winds across the area amid dry fuels. ...Day 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A deepening upper-level trough begins to impact the western U.S. on Day 5/Thursday, promoting a multi-day fire weather threat across the Great Basin with fire weather concerns shifting east into the Southwest and Intermountain West into the weekend. Fuels will continue to dry across the region under an above normal temperature regime with dry, breezy southwest winds setting the stage for increased fire spread potential. Dry and breezy conditions could also impact ongoing active fires across the region. ..Williams.. 06/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z ...Day 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday... An eastward propagating upper-level short wave trough and associated increased mid-level flow will overspread the Southwest on Day 3/Tuesday. Critical probabilities were maintained as prolonged burn periods with poor to moderate RH recoveries and single digit daytime RH values combine with southwest winds of 15-25 mph across eastern Arizona and western New Mexico. A 40 percent probability area was added for the Columbia Basin for Day 4/Tuesday as another Pacific Northwest short wave trough moves into the region supporting downslope/leeward drying and breezy west winds across the area amid dry fuels. ...Day 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A deepening upper-level trough begins to impact the western U.S. on Day 5/Thursday, promoting a multi-day fire weather threat across the Great Basin with fire weather concerns shifting east into the Southwest and Intermountain West into the weekend. Fuels will continue to dry across the region under an above normal temperature regime with dry, breezy southwest winds setting the stage for increased fire spread potential. Dry and breezy conditions could also impact ongoing active fires across the region. ..Williams.. 06/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more