Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF MINNESOTA INTO NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with areas of damaging winds and hail are forecast on Monday from the north-central High Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... An early shortwave trough associated with an MCS will move east out of ND across northern MN during the day, with modest westerlies aloft behind it over the central Plains to northern Rockies. Height falls will occur behind the northern wave as it breaks down the antecedent ridge. Midlevel temperatures will generally be cool with around -10 C at 500 mb. At the surface, a trough will exist from northern MN near the convective system southwestward across NE. Sufficient moisture will exist behind this boundary across MT and WY for afternoon storms, with a nocturnal low-level jet aiding overnight development further across much of NE. ...MN/IA/SD... An MCS is likely to be ongoing Monday morning from ND into northern MN, with associated midlevel wave. As this feature continues east during the day, a conditional threat of supercells will develop along the southern periphery, even if only an MCV by afternoon. Here, a low-level lapse rate plume will develop out of the southwest. A couple tornadoes may occur along with large hail. Additional isolated cells will be possible trailing southwestward across southern MN, northern IA, and perhaps southeast SD and northeast NE. In favor of large hail potential will be strong instability with > 3000 J/kg MUCAPE, however, deep-layer shear appears less than optimal, suggesting more of a localized sig hail threat. Otherwise, enhanced low-level shear near along the southern periphery of the MCS/MCV influence may yield tornado potential. ...MT/WY/NE... Strong heating and gradual cooling aloft will steepen lapse rates and favor scattered cells capable of hail and wind from southern MT across much of eastern WY during the afternoon. Additional cells may develop over the Black Hills. With time, an MCS is likely to develop, with strong to severe gusts over much of western into central NE. A deep boundary layer and hot temperatures preceding the MCS will likely aid evaporation/downdraft potential, with southwest 850 mb wind favoring propagation. ..Jewell.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF MINNESOTA INTO NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with areas of damaging winds and hail are forecast on Monday from the north-central High Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... An early shortwave trough associated with an MCS will move east out of ND across northern MN during the day, with modest westerlies aloft behind it over the central Plains to northern Rockies. Height falls will occur behind the northern wave as it breaks down the antecedent ridge. Midlevel temperatures will generally be cool with around -10 C at 500 mb. At the surface, a trough will exist from northern MN near the convective system southwestward across NE. Sufficient moisture will exist behind this boundary across MT and WY for afternoon storms, with a nocturnal low-level jet aiding overnight development further across much of NE. ...MN/IA/SD... An MCS is likely to be ongoing Monday morning from ND into northern MN, with associated midlevel wave. As this feature continues east during the day, a conditional threat of supercells will develop along the southern periphery, even if only an MCV by afternoon. Here, a low-level lapse rate plume will develop out of the southwest. A couple tornadoes may occur along with large hail. Additional isolated cells will be possible trailing southwestward across southern MN, northern IA, and perhaps southeast SD and northeast NE. In favor of large hail potential will be strong instability with > 3000 J/kg MUCAPE, however, deep-layer shear appears less than optimal, suggesting more of a localized sig hail threat. Otherwise, enhanced low-level shear near along the southern periphery of the MCS/MCV influence may yield tornado potential. ...MT/WY/NE... Strong heating and gradual cooling aloft will steepen lapse rates and favor scattered cells capable of hail and wind from southern MT across much of eastern WY during the afternoon. Additional cells may develop over the Black Hills. With time, an MCS is likely to develop, with strong to severe gusts over much of western into central NE. A deep boundary layer and hot temperatures preceding the MCS will likely aid evaporation/downdraft potential, with southwest 850 mb wind favoring propagation. ..Jewell.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF MINNESOTA INTO NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with areas of damaging winds and hail are forecast on Monday from the north-central High Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... An early shortwave trough associated with an MCS will move east out of ND across northern MN during the day, with modest westerlies aloft behind it over the central Plains to northern Rockies. Height falls will occur behind the northern wave as it breaks down the antecedent ridge. Midlevel temperatures will generally be cool with around -10 C at 500 mb. At the surface, a trough will exist from northern MN near the convective system southwestward across NE. Sufficient moisture will exist behind this boundary across MT and WY for afternoon storms, with a nocturnal low-level jet aiding overnight development further across much of NE. ...MN/IA/SD... An MCS is likely to be ongoing Monday morning from ND into northern MN, with associated midlevel wave. As this feature continues east during the day, a conditional threat of supercells will develop along the southern periphery, even if only an MCV by afternoon. Here, a low-level lapse rate plume will develop out of the southwest. A couple tornadoes may occur along with large hail. Additional isolated cells will be possible trailing southwestward across southern MN, northern IA, and perhaps southeast SD and northeast NE. In favor of large hail potential will be strong instability with > 3000 J/kg MUCAPE, however, deep-layer shear appears less than optimal, suggesting more of a localized sig hail threat. Otherwise, enhanced low-level shear near along the southern periphery of the MCS/MCV influence may yield tornado potential. ...MT/WY/NE... Strong heating and gradual cooling aloft will steepen lapse rates and favor scattered cells capable of hail and wind from southern MT across much of eastern WY during the afternoon. Additional cells may develop over the Black Hills. With time, an MCS is likely to develop, with strong to severe gusts over much of western into central NE. A deep boundary layer and hot temperatures preceding the MCS will likely aid evaporation/downdraft potential, with southwest 850 mb wind favoring propagation. ..Jewell.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF MINNESOTA INTO NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with areas of damaging winds and hail are forecast on Monday from the north-central High Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... An early shortwave trough associated with an MCS will move east out of ND across northern MN during the day, with modest westerlies aloft behind it over the central Plains to northern Rockies. Height falls will occur behind the northern wave as it breaks down the antecedent ridge. Midlevel temperatures will generally be cool with around -10 C at 500 mb. At the surface, a trough will exist from northern MN near the convective system southwestward across NE. Sufficient moisture will exist behind this boundary across MT and WY for afternoon storms, with a nocturnal low-level jet aiding overnight development further across much of NE. ...MN/IA/SD... An MCS is likely to be ongoing Monday morning from ND into northern MN, with associated midlevel wave. As this feature continues east during the day, a conditional threat of supercells will develop along the southern periphery, even if only an MCV by afternoon. Here, a low-level lapse rate plume will develop out of the southwest. A couple tornadoes may occur along with large hail. Additional isolated cells will be possible trailing southwestward across southern MN, northern IA, and perhaps southeast SD and northeast NE. In favor of large hail potential will be strong instability with > 3000 J/kg MUCAPE, however, deep-layer shear appears less than optimal, suggesting more of a localized sig hail threat. Otherwise, enhanced low-level shear near along the southern periphery of the MCS/MCV influence may yield tornado potential. ...MT/WY/NE... Strong heating and gradual cooling aloft will steepen lapse rates and favor scattered cells capable of hail and wind from southern MT across much of eastern WY during the afternoon. Additional cells may develop over the Black Hills. With time, an MCS is likely to develop, with strong to severe gusts over much of western into central NE. A deep boundary layer and hot temperatures preceding the MCS will likely aid evaporation/downdraft potential, with southwest 850 mb wind favoring propagation. ..Jewell.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF MINNESOTA INTO NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with areas of damaging winds and hail are forecast on Monday from the north-central High Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... An early shortwave trough associated with an MCS will move east out of ND across northern MN during the day, with modest westerlies aloft behind it over the central Plains to northern Rockies. Height falls will occur behind the northern wave as it breaks down the antecedent ridge. Midlevel temperatures will generally be cool with around -10 C at 500 mb. At the surface, a trough will exist from northern MN near the convective system southwestward across NE. Sufficient moisture will exist behind this boundary across MT and WY for afternoon storms, with a nocturnal low-level jet aiding overnight development further across much of NE. ...MN/IA/SD... An MCS is likely to be ongoing Monday morning from ND into northern MN, with associated midlevel wave. As this feature continues east during the day, a conditional threat of supercells will develop along the southern periphery, even if only an MCV by afternoon. Here, a low-level lapse rate plume will develop out of the southwest. A couple tornadoes may occur along with large hail. Additional isolated cells will be possible trailing southwestward across southern MN, northern IA, and perhaps southeast SD and northeast NE. In favor of large hail potential will be strong instability with > 3000 J/kg MUCAPE, however, deep-layer shear appears less than optimal, suggesting more of a localized sig hail threat. Otherwise, enhanced low-level shear near along the southern periphery of the MCS/MCV influence may yield tornado potential. ...MT/WY/NE... Strong heating and gradual cooling aloft will steepen lapse rates and favor scattered cells capable of hail and wind from southern MT across much of eastern WY during the afternoon. Additional cells may develop over the Black Hills. With time, an MCS is likely to develop, with strong to severe gusts over much of western into central NE. A deep boundary layer and hot temperatures preceding the MCS will likely aid evaporation/downdraft potential, with southwest 850 mb wind favoring propagation. ..Jewell.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF MINNESOTA INTO NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with areas of damaging winds and hail are forecast on Monday from the north-central High Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... An early shortwave trough associated with an MCS will move east out of ND across northern MN during the day, with modest westerlies aloft behind it over the central Plains to northern Rockies. Height falls will occur behind the northern wave as it breaks down the antecedent ridge. Midlevel temperatures will generally be cool with around -10 C at 500 mb. At the surface, a trough will exist from northern MN near the convective system southwestward across NE. Sufficient moisture will exist behind this boundary across MT and WY for afternoon storms, with a nocturnal low-level jet aiding overnight development further across much of NE. ...MN/IA/SD... An MCS is likely to be ongoing Monday morning from ND into northern MN, with associated midlevel wave. As this feature continues east during the day, a conditional threat of supercells will develop along the southern periphery, even if only an MCV by afternoon. Here, a low-level lapse rate plume will develop out of the southwest. A couple tornadoes may occur along with large hail. Additional isolated cells will be possible trailing southwestward across southern MN, northern IA, and perhaps southeast SD and northeast NE. In favor of large hail potential will be strong instability with > 3000 J/kg MUCAPE, however, deep-layer shear appears less than optimal, suggesting more of a localized sig hail threat. Otherwise, enhanced low-level shear near along the southern periphery of the MCS/MCV influence may yield tornado potential. ...MT/WY/NE... Strong heating and gradual cooling aloft will steepen lapse rates and favor scattered cells capable of hail and wind from southern MT across much of eastern WY during the afternoon. Additional cells may develop over the Black Hills. With time, an MCS is likely to develop, with strong to severe gusts over much of western into central NE. A deep boundary layer and hot temperatures preceding the MCS will likely aid evaporation/downdraft potential, with southwest 850 mb wind favoring propagation. ..Jewell.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF MINNESOTA INTO NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with areas of damaging winds and hail are forecast on Monday from the north-central High Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... An early shortwave trough associated with an MCS will move east out of ND across northern MN during the day, with modest westerlies aloft behind it over the central Plains to northern Rockies. Height falls will occur behind the northern wave as it breaks down the antecedent ridge. Midlevel temperatures will generally be cool with around -10 C at 500 mb. At the surface, a trough will exist from northern MN near the convective system southwestward across NE. Sufficient moisture will exist behind this boundary across MT and WY for afternoon storms, with a nocturnal low-level jet aiding overnight development further across much of NE. ...MN/IA/SD... An MCS is likely to be ongoing Monday morning from ND into northern MN, with associated midlevel wave. As this feature continues east during the day, a conditional threat of supercells will develop along the southern periphery, even if only an MCV by afternoon. Here, a low-level lapse rate plume will develop out of the southwest. A couple tornadoes may occur along with large hail. Additional isolated cells will be possible trailing southwestward across southern MN, northern IA, and perhaps southeast SD and northeast NE. In favor of large hail potential will be strong instability with > 3000 J/kg MUCAPE, however, deep-layer shear appears less than optimal, suggesting more of a localized sig hail threat. Otherwise, enhanced low-level shear near along the southern periphery of the MCS/MCV influence may yield tornado potential. ...MT/WY/NE... Strong heating and gradual cooling aloft will steepen lapse rates and favor scattered cells capable of hail and wind from southern MT across much of eastern WY during the afternoon. Additional cells may develop over the Black Hills. With time, an MCS is likely to develop, with strong to severe gusts over much of western into central NE. A deep boundary layer and hot temperatures preceding the MCS will likely aid evaporation/downdraft potential, with southwest 850 mb wind favoring propagation. ..Jewell.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF MINNESOTA INTO NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with areas of damaging winds and hail are forecast on Monday from the north-central High Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... An early shortwave trough associated with an MCS will move east out of ND across northern MN during the day, with modest westerlies aloft behind it over the central Plains to northern Rockies. Height falls will occur behind the northern wave as it breaks down the antecedent ridge. Midlevel temperatures will generally be cool with around -10 C at 500 mb. At the surface, a trough will exist from northern MN near the convective system southwestward across NE. Sufficient moisture will exist behind this boundary across MT and WY for afternoon storms, with a nocturnal low-level jet aiding overnight development further across much of NE. ...MN/IA/SD... An MCS is likely to be ongoing Monday morning from ND into northern MN, with associated midlevel wave. As this feature continues east during the day, a conditional threat of supercells will develop along the southern periphery, even if only an MCV by afternoon. Here, a low-level lapse rate plume will develop out of the southwest. A couple tornadoes may occur along with large hail. Additional isolated cells will be possible trailing southwestward across southern MN, northern IA, and perhaps southeast SD and northeast NE. In favor of large hail potential will be strong instability with > 3000 J/kg MUCAPE, however, deep-layer shear appears less than optimal, suggesting more of a localized sig hail threat. Otherwise, enhanced low-level shear near along the southern periphery of the MCS/MCV influence may yield tornado potential. ...MT/WY/NE... Strong heating and gradual cooling aloft will steepen lapse rates and favor scattered cells capable of hail and wind from southern MT across much of eastern WY during the afternoon. Additional cells may develop over the Black Hills. With time, an MCS is likely to develop, with strong to severe gusts over much of western into central NE. A deep boundary layer and hot temperatures preceding the MCS will likely aid evaporation/downdraft potential, with southwest 850 mb wind favoring propagation. ..Jewell.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF MINNESOTA INTO NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with areas of damaging winds and hail are forecast on Monday from the north-central High Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... An early shortwave trough associated with an MCS will move east out of ND across northern MN during the day, with modest westerlies aloft behind it over the central Plains to northern Rockies. Height falls will occur behind the northern wave as it breaks down the antecedent ridge. Midlevel temperatures will generally be cool with around -10 C at 500 mb. At the surface, a trough will exist from northern MN near the convective system southwestward across NE. Sufficient moisture will exist behind this boundary across MT and WY for afternoon storms, with a nocturnal low-level jet aiding overnight development further across much of NE. ...MN/IA/SD... An MCS is likely to be ongoing Monday morning from ND into northern MN, with associated midlevel wave. As this feature continues east during the day, a conditional threat of supercells will develop along the southern periphery, even if only an MCV by afternoon. Here, a low-level lapse rate plume will develop out of the southwest. A couple tornadoes may occur along with large hail. Additional isolated cells will be possible trailing southwestward across southern MN, northern IA, and perhaps southeast SD and northeast NE. In favor of large hail potential will be strong instability with > 3000 J/kg MUCAPE, however, deep-layer shear appears less than optimal, suggesting more of a localized sig hail threat. Otherwise, enhanced low-level shear near along the southern periphery of the MCS/MCV influence may yield tornado potential. ...MT/WY/NE... Strong heating and gradual cooling aloft will steepen lapse rates and favor scattered cells capable of hail and wind from southern MT across much of eastern WY during the afternoon. Additional cells may develop over the Black Hills. With time, an MCS is likely to develop, with strong to severe gusts over much of western into central NE. A deep boundary layer and hot temperatures preceding the MCS will likely aid evaporation/downdraft potential, with southwest 850 mb wind favoring propagation. ..Jewell.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF MINNESOTA INTO NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with areas of damaging winds and hail are forecast on Monday from the north-central High Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... An early shortwave trough associated with an MCS will move east out of ND across northern MN during the day, with modest westerlies aloft behind it over the central Plains to northern Rockies. Height falls will occur behind the northern wave as it breaks down the antecedent ridge. Midlevel temperatures will generally be cool with around -10 C at 500 mb. At the surface, a trough will exist from northern MN near the convective system southwestward across NE. Sufficient moisture will exist behind this boundary across MT and WY for afternoon storms, with a nocturnal low-level jet aiding overnight development further across much of NE. ...MN/IA/SD... An MCS is likely to be ongoing Monday morning from ND into northern MN, with associated midlevel wave. As this feature continues east during the day, a conditional threat of supercells will develop along the southern periphery, even if only an MCV by afternoon. Here, a low-level lapse rate plume will develop out of the southwest. A couple tornadoes may occur along with large hail. Additional isolated cells will be possible trailing southwestward across southern MN, northern IA, and perhaps southeast SD and northeast NE. In favor of large hail potential will be strong instability with > 3000 J/kg MUCAPE, however, deep-layer shear appears less than optimal, suggesting more of a localized sig hail threat. Otherwise, enhanced low-level shear near along the southern periphery of the MCS/MCV influence may yield tornado potential. ...MT/WY/NE... Strong heating and gradual cooling aloft will steepen lapse rates and favor scattered cells capable of hail and wind from southern MT across much of eastern WY during the afternoon. Additional cells may develop over the Black Hills. With time, an MCS is likely to develop, with strong to severe gusts over much of western into central NE. A deep boundary layer and hot temperatures preceding the MCS will likely aid evaporation/downdraft potential, with southwest 850 mb wind favoring propagation. ..Jewell.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF MINNESOTA INTO NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with areas of damaging winds and hail are forecast on Monday from the north-central High Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... An early shortwave trough associated with an MCS will move east out of ND across northern MN during the day, with modest westerlies aloft behind it over the central Plains to northern Rockies. Height falls will occur behind the northern wave as it breaks down the antecedent ridge. Midlevel temperatures will generally be cool with around -10 C at 500 mb. At the surface, a trough will exist from northern MN near the convective system southwestward across NE. Sufficient moisture will exist behind this boundary across MT and WY for afternoon storms, with a nocturnal low-level jet aiding overnight development further across much of NE. ...MN/IA/SD... An MCS is likely to be ongoing Monday morning from ND into northern MN, with associated midlevel wave. As this feature continues east during the day, a conditional threat of supercells will develop along the southern periphery, even if only an MCV by afternoon. Here, a low-level lapse rate plume will develop out of the southwest. A couple tornadoes may occur along with large hail. Additional isolated cells will be possible trailing southwestward across southern MN, northern IA, and perhaps southeast SD and northeast NE. In favor of large hail potential will be strong instability with > 3000 J/kg MUCAPE, however, deep-layer shear appears less than optimal, suggesting more of a localized sig hail threat. Otherwise, enhanced low-level shear near along the southern periphery of the MCS/MCV influence may yield tornado potential. ...MT/WY/NE... Strong heating and gradual cooling aloft will steepen lapse rates and favor scattered cells capable of hail and wind from southern MT across much of eastern WY during the afternoon. Additional cells may develop over the Black Hills. With time, an MCS is likely to develop, with strong to severe gusts over much of western into central NE. A deep boundary layer and hot temperatures preceding the MCS will likely aid evaporation/downdraft potential, with southwest 850 mb wind favoring propagation. ..Jewell.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF MINNESOTA INTO NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with areas of damaging winds and hail are forecast on Monday from the north-central High Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... An early shortwave trough associated with an MCS will move east out of ND across northern MN during the day, with modest westerlies aloft behind it over the central Plains to northern Rockies. Height falls will occur behind the northern wave as it breaks down the antecedent ridge. Midlevel temperatures will generally be cool with around -10 C at 500 mb. At the surface, a trough will exist from northern MN near the convective system southwestward across NE. Sufficient moisture will exist behind this boundary across MT and WY for afternoon storms, with a nocturnal low-level jet aiding overnight development further across much of NE. ...MN/IA/SD... An MCS is likely to be ongoing Monday morning from ND into northern MN, with associated midlevel wave. As this feature continues east during the day, a conditional threat of supercells will develop along the southern periphery, even if only an MCV by afternoon. Here, a low-level lapse rate plume will develop out of the southwest. A couple tornadoes may occur along with large hail. Additional isolated cells will be possible trailing southwestward across southern MN, northern IA, and perhaps southeast SD and northeast NE. In favor of large hail potential will be strong instability with > 3000 J/kg MUCAPE, however, deep-layer shear appears less than optimal, suggesting more of a localized sig hail threat. Otherwise, enhanced low-level shear near along the southern periphery of the MCS/MCV influence may yield tornado potential. ...MT/WY/NE... Strong heating and gradual cooling aloft will steepen lapse rates and favor scattered cells capable of hail and wind from southern MT across much of eastern WY during the afternoon. Additional cells may develop over the Black Hills. With time, an MCS is likely to develop, with strong to severe gusts over much of western into central NE. A deep boundary layer and hot temperatures preceding the MCS will likely aid evaporation/downdraft potential, with southwest 850 mb wind favoring propagation. ..Jewell.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z Dry downslope flow east of the Sierra Crest along with dry fuels will contribute to elevated fire weather conditions across far western Nevada this afternoon. Single digit relative humidity along with breezy southwest winds are expected across central/southern Nevada and southwestern Utah. However, mid and upper slope fuelscapes remain largely in green up phase, limiting fire spread potential to lower elevation cured grasses with average fuel loading. ..Williams.. 06/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of modest mid-level flow will be positioned over the Great Basin during the day, and strong mixing during the afternoon is expected to bring some of that flow to the surface, resulting in a couple areas of fire weather concerns. An Elevated area was maintained across parts of northwestern Nevada, where RH is expected to be near 5-15% with 15-20 mph surface winds atop dry fuels. Similar atmospheric conditions are expected across eastern Nevada into west-central Utah, however fuels in this region are not as dry. Therefore, have held off on introducing Elevated highlights in this area for now. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z Dry downslope flow east of the Sierra Crest along with dry fuels will contribute to elevated fire weather conditions across far western Nevada this afternoon. Single digit relative humidity along with breezy southwest winds are expected across central/southern Nevada and southwestern Utah. However, mid and upper slope fuelscapes remain largely in green up phase, limiting fire spread potential to lower elevation cured grasses with average fuel loading. ..Williams.. 06/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of modest mid-level flow will be positioned over the Great Basin during the day, and strong mixing during the afternoon is expected to bring some of that flow to the surface, resulting in a couple areas of fire weather concerns. An Elevated area was maintained across parts of northwestern Nevada, where RH is expected to be near 5-15% with 15-20 mph surface winds atop dry fuels. Similar atmospheric conditions are expected across eastern Nevada into west-central Utah, however fuels in this region are not as dry. Therefore, have held off on introducing Elevated highlights in this area for now. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z Dry downslope flow east of the Sierra Crest along with dry fuels will contribute to elevated fire weather conditions across far western Nevada this afternoon. Single digit relative humidity along with breezy southwest winds are expected across central/southern Nevada and southwestern Utah. However, mid and upper slope fuelscapes remain largely in green up phase, limiting fire spread potential to lower elevation cured grasses with average fuel loading. ..Williams.. 06/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of modest mid-level flow will be positioned over the Great Basin during the day, and strong mixing during the afternoon is expected to bring some of that flow to the surface, resulting in a couple areas of fire weather concerns. An Elevated area was maintained across parts of northwestern Nevada, where RH is expected to be near 5-15% with 15-20 mph surface winds atop dry fuels. Similar atmospheric conditions are expected across eastern Nevada into west-central Utah, however fuels in this region are not as dry. Therefore, have held off on introducing Elevated highlights in this area for now. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z Dry downslope flow east of the Sierra Crest along with dry fuels will contribute to elevated fire weather conditions across far western Nevada this afternoon. Single digit relative humidity along with breezy southwest winds are expected across central/southern Nevada and southwestern Utah. However, mid and upper slope fuelscapes remain largely in green up phase, limiting fire spread potential to lower elevation cured grasses with average fuel loading. ..Williams.. 06/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of modest mid-level flow will be positioned over the Great Basin during the day, and strong mixing during the afternoon is expected to bring some of that flow to the surface, resulting in a couple areas of fire weather concerns. An Elevated area was maintained across parts of northwestern Nevada, where RH is expected to be near 5-15% with 15-20 mph surface winds atop dry fuels. Similar atmospheric conditions are expected across eastern Nevada into west-central Utah, however fuels in this region are not as dry. Therefore, have held off on introducing Elevated highlights in this area for now. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z Dry downslope flow east of the Sierra Crest along with dry fuels will contribute to elevated fire weather conditions across far western Nevada this afternoon. Single digit relative humidity along with breezy southwest winds are expected across central/southern Nevada and southwestern Utah. However, mid and upper slope fuelscapes remain largely in green up phase, limiting fire spread potential to lower elevation cured grasses with average fuel loading. ..Williams.. 06/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of modest mid-level flow will be positioned over the Great Basin during the day, and strong mixing during the afternoon is expected to bring some of that flow to the surface, resulting in a couple areas of fire weather concerns. An Elevated area was maintained across parts of northwestern Nevada, where RH is expected to be near 5-15% with 15-20 mph surface winds atop dry fuels. Similar atmospheric conditions are expected across eastern Nevada into west-central Utah, however fuels in this region are not as dry. Therefore, have held off on introducing Elevated highlights in this area for now. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z Dry downslope flow east of the Sierra Crest along with dry fuels will contribute to elevated fire weather conditions across far western Nevada this afternoon. Single digit relative humidity along with breezy southwest winds are expected across central/southern Nevada and southwestern Utah. However, mid and upper slope fuelscapes remain largely in green up phase, limiting fire spread potential to lower elevation cured grasses with average fuel loading. ..Williams.. 06/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of modest mid-level flow will be positioned over the Great Basin during the day, and strong mixing during the afternoon is expected to bring some of that flow to the surface, resulting in a couple areas of fire weather concerns. An Elevated area was maintained across parts of northwestern Nevada, where RH is expected to be near 5-15% with 15-20 mph surface winds atop dry fuels. Similar atmospheric conditions are expected across eastern Nevada into west-central Utah, however fuels in this region are not as dry. Therefore, have held off on introducing Elevated highlights in this area for now. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z Dry downslope flow east of the Sierra Crest along with dry fuels will contribute to elevated fire weather conditions across far western Nevada this afternoon. Single digit relative humidity along with breezy southwest winds are expected across central/southern Nevada and southwestern Utah. However, mid and upper slope fuelscapes remain largely in green up phase, limiting fire spread potential to lower elevation cured grasses with average fuel loading. ..Williams.. 06/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of modest mid-level flow will be positioned over the Great Basin during the day, and strong mixing during the afternoon is expected to bring some of that flow to the surface, resulting in a couple areas of fire weather concerns. An Elevated area was maintained across parts of northwestern Nevada, where RH is expected to be near 5-15% with 15-20 mph surface winds atop dry fuels. Similar atmospheric conditions are expected across eastern Nevada into west-central Utah, however fuels in this region are not as dry. Therefore, have held off on introducing Elevated highlights in this area for now. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z Dry downslope flow east of the Sierra Crest along with dry fuels will contribute to elevated fire weather conditions across far western Nevada this afternoon. Single digit relative humidity along with breezy southwest winds are expected across central/southern Nevada and southwestern Utah. However, mid and upper slope fuelscapes remain largely in green up phase, limiting fire spread potential to lower elevation cured grasses with average fuel loading. ..Williams.. 06/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... A belt of modest mid-level flow will be positioned over the Great Basin during the day, and strong mixing during the afternoon is expected to bring some of that flow to the surface, resulting in a couple areas of fire weather concerns. An Elevated area was maintained across parts of northwestern Nevada, where RH is expected to be near 5-15% with 15-20 mph surface winds atop dry fuels. Similar atmospheric conditions are expected across eastern Nevada into west-central Utah, however fuels in this region are not as dry. Therefore, have held off on introducing Elevated highlights in this area for now. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more