Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and swaths of severe/damaging gusts (some 75+ mph) are likely across portions of central/eastern Montana into northeast Wyoming and the western Dakotas this afternoon through tonight. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the central/southern Plains, and over parts of Virginia and North Carolina. ...Northern/Central Plains... Ongoing thunderstorms across northeast MT may pose an isolated hail threat this morning. Otherwise, upper ridging will continue to prevail over the Southwest and southern Rockies today, with a subtle mid-level shortwave trough forecast to advance northeastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains through the period. This feature will likely aid in the development of initially high-based convection over parts of the northern Rockies in MT by early to mid afternoon. Meanwhile, diurnal heating of a fairly moist low-level airmass (surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s) and steep mid-level lapse rates will foster around 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE through the afternoon across much of central/eastern MT along and south of a convectively reinforced boundary. Modest low-level east-southeasterly flow will veer to west-southwesterly and strengthen with height through mid/upper levels. This will support around 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear and organized convection. Intense thunderstorm development appears increasingly likely across central MT by mid to late afternoon, as large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough overspreads the surface warm sector. Given the rather favorable thermodynamic/kinematic environment expected, initial convection will likely be supercellular and pose a threat for large to very large hail potentially up to 2-3 inches in diameter. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded westward some in central MT to account for this expected supercell development, and a 30% area has been included for large hail as well. With time this evening, one or more clusters will likely evolve from the initially discrete activity across eastern MT into parts of northeast WY and the western Dakotas. Steepened low-level lapse rates should aid in efficient mixing of intense downdraft winds to the surface, and swaths of severe/damaging winds should occur as thunderstorms spread eastward through the evening and into early Monday morning. Some of these winds may be significant, with peak gusts potentially reaching up to 70-80 mph on an isolated basis. Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms should develop along the surface trough/dryline within a moist low-level upslope flow regime across portions of southeast WY into eastern CO, and perhaps persisting into western NE/KS. This activity will pose a risk of strong to severe outflow winds given a deeply mixed boundary layer and the presence of very steep low-level lapse rates. Isolated hail may also occur where any robust updrafts can be maintained within a modestly sheared environment. ...Southern Plains... Extensive, loosely organized convection is ongoing this morning across much of western/southern OK and vicinity. This activity is being aided by modest low-level warm moist advection associated with a 20-30 kt southwesterly low-level jet. Current expectations are for these thunderstorms to generally weaken through the rest of the morning as the low-level jet gradually weakens. Even so, an isolated threat for strong/gusty winds may persist with these clusters as they spread generally south-southeastward. There may be some chance for either this morning convection or related outflow to regenerate new, robust convection this afternoon across parts of TX. Have expanded the Marginal Risk for wind southward a bit to account for this potential, but in general weak shear should limit convective organization with southward extent. Otherwise, an isolated severe threat may exist with convection that develops across AR this afternoon in proximity to a remnant MCV, and along/east of the surface lee trough/dryline across the southern High Plains. ...Virginia/North Carolina... A low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the central/southern Appalachians today. A related weak surface low should develop eastward near the NC/VA border through the afternoon. A moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across much of NC and southern VA as filtered daytime heating occurs. Poor lapse rates aloft and modest deep-layer shear should limit the overall severe potential across this region. Still, isolated wet microbursts and/or marginally severe hail may occur with the stronger updrafts/cores that can develop this afternoon and early evening. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and swaths of severe/damaging gusts (some 75+ mph) are likely across portions of central/eastern Montana into northeast Wyoming and the western Dakotas this afternoon through tonight. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the central/southern Plains, and over parts of Virginia and North Carolina. ...Northern/Central Plains... Ongoing thunderstorms across northeast MT may pose an isolated hail threat this morning. Otherwise, upper ridging will continue to prevail over the Southwest and southern Rockies today, with a subtle mid-level shortwave trough forecast to advance northeastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains through the period. This feature will likely aid in the development of initially high-based convection over parts of the northern Rockies in MT by early to mid afternoon. Meanwhile, diurnal heating of a fairly moist low-level airmass (surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s) and steep mid-level lapse rates will foster around 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE through the afternoon across much of central/eastern MT along and south of a convectively reinforced boundary. Modest low-level east-southeasterly flow will veer to west-southwesterly and strengthen with height through mid/upper levels. This will support around 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear and organized convection. Intense thunderstorm development appears increasingly likely across central MT by mid to late afternoon, as large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough overspreads the surface warm sector. Given the rather favorable thermodynamic/kinematic environment expected, initial convection will likely be supercellular and pose a threat for large to very large hail potentially up to 2-3 inches in diameter. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded westward some in central MT to account for this expected supercell development, and a 30% area has been included for large hail as well. With time this evening, one or more clusters will likely evolve from the initially discrete activity across eastern MT into parts of northeast WY and the western Dakotas. Steepened low-level lapse rates should aid in efficient mixing of intense downdraft winds to the surface, and swaths of severe/damaging winds should occur as thunderstorms spread eastward through the evening and into early Monday morning. Some of these winds may be significant, with peak gusts potentially reaching up to 70-80 mph on an isolated basis. Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms should develop along the surface trough/dryline within a moist low-level upslope flow regime across portions of southeast WY into eastern CO, and perhaps persisting into western NE/KS. This activity will pose a risk of strong to severe outflow winds given a deeply mixed boundary layer and the presence of very steep low-level lapse rates. Isolated hail may also occur where any robust updrafts can be maintained within a modestly sheared environment. ...Southern Plains... Extensive, loosely organized convection is ongoing this morning across much of western/southern OK and vicinity. This activity is being aided by modest low-level warm moist advection associated with a 20-30 kt southwesterly low-level jet. Current expectations are for these thunderstorms to generally weaken through the rest of the morning as the low-level jet gradually weakens. Even so, an isolated threat for strong/gusty winds may persist with these clusters as they spread generally south-southeastward. There may be some chance for either this morning convection or related outflow to regenerate new, robust convection this afternoon across parts of TX. Have expanded the Marginal Risk for wind southward a bit to account for this potential, but in general weak shear should limit convective organization with southward extent. Otherwise, an isolated severe threat may exist with convection that develops across AR this afternoon in proximity to a remnant MCV, and along/east of the surface lee trough/dryline across the southern High Plains. ...Virginia/North Carolina... A low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the central/southern Appalachians today. A related weak surface low should develop eastward near the NC/VA border through the afternoon. A moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across much of NC and southern VA as filtered daytime heating occurs. Poor lapse rates aloft and modest deep-layer shear should limit the overall severe potential across this region. Still, isolated wet microbursts and/or marginally severe hail may occur with the stronger updrafts/cores that can develop this afternoon and early evening. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and swaths of severe/damaging gusts (some 75+ mph) are likely across portions of central/eastern Montana into northeast Wyoming and the western Dakotas this afternoon through tonight. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across the central/southern Plains, and over parts of Virginia and North Carolina. ...Northern/Central Plains... Ongoing thunderstorms across northeast MT may pose an isolated hail threat this morning. Otherwise, upper ridging will continue to prevail over the Southwest and southern Rockies today, with a subtle mid-level shortwave trough forecast to advance northeastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains through the period. This feature will likely aid in the development of initially high-based convection over parts of the northern Rockies in MT by early to mid afternoon. Meanwhile, diurnal heating of a fairly moist low-level airmass (surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s) and steep mid-level lapse rates will foster around 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE through the afternoon across much of central/eastern MT along and south of a convectively reinforced boundary. Modest low-level east-southeasterly flow will veer to west-southwesterly and strengthen with height through mid/upper levels. This will support around 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear and organized convection. Intense thunderstorm development appears increasingly likely across central MT by mid to late afternoon, as large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough overspreads the surface warm sector. Given the rather favorable thermodynamic/kinematic environment expected, initial convection will likely be supercellular and pose a threat for large to very large hail potentially up to 2-3 inches in diameter. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded westward some in central MT to account for this expected supercell development, and a 30% area has been included for large hail as well. With time this evening, one or more clusters will likely evolve from the initially discrete activity across eastern MT into parts of northeast WY and the western Dakotas. Steepened low-level lapse rates should aid in efficient mixing of intense downdraft winds to the surface, and swaths of severe/damaging winds should occur as thunderstorms spread eastward through the evening and into early Monday morning. Some of these winds may be significant, with peak gusts potentially reaching up to 70-80 mph on an isolated basis. Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms should develop along the surface trough/dryline within a moist low-level upslope flow regime across portions of southeast WY into eastern CO, and perhaps persisting into western NE/KS. This activity will pose a risk of strong to severe outflow winds given a deeply mixed boundary layer and the presence of very steep low-level lapse rates. Isolated hail may also occur where any robust updrafts can be maintained within a modestly sheared environment. ...Southern Plains... Extensive, loosely organized convection is ongoing this morning across much of western/southern OK and vicinity. This activity is being aided by modest low-level warm moist advection associated with a 20-30 kt southwesterly low-level jet. Current expectations are for these thunderstorms to generally weaken through the rest of the morning as the low-level jet gradually weakens. Even so, an isolated threat for strong/gusty winds may persist with these clusters as they spread generally south-southeastward. There may be some chance for either this morning convection or related outflow to regenerate new, robust convection this afternoon across parts of TX. Have expanded the Marginal Risk for wind southward a bit to account for this potential, but in general weak shear should limit convective organization with southward extent. Otherwise, an isolated severe threat may exist with convection that develops across AR this afternoon in proximity to a remnant MCV, and along/east of the surface lee trough/dryline across the southern High Plains. ...Virginia/North Carolina... A low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the central/southern Appalachians today. A related weak surface low should develop eastward near the NC/VA border through the afternoon. A moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place across much of NC and southern VA as filtered daytime heating occurs. Poor lapse rates aloft and modest deep-layer shear should limit the overall severe potential across this region. Still, isolated wet microbursts and/or marginally severe hail may occur with the stronger updrafts/cores that can develop this afternoon and early evening. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 06/15/2025 Read more

MD 1298 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 417... FOR CENTRAL INTO WESTERN/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1298 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Areas affected...central into western/southern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 417... Valid 150946Z - 151145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 417 continues. SUMMARY...Some risk for strong to severe gusts and severe hail probably will continue beyond daybreak with thunderstorms developing into and across parts of western through southern Oklahoma. However, it is not clear that an additional severe weather watch will be needed. DISCUSSION...Within a generally weak large-scale flow regime, convectively augmented mid-level troughing continues to slowly dig south-southeastward across parts of southeastern Kansas and eastern Oklahoma. Aided by persistent vigorous thunderstorm development, supported by lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection above the western flank of a composite outflow, the outflow has been slowly spreading west-southwestward across the Interstate 35 corridor of north central Oklahoma. This is likely to continue into western/southwestern Oklahoma through and beyond daybreak. As the nocturnal low-level jet weakens, forcing to overcome mid-level inhibition and maintain convective development in the presence of moderate potential instability remains unclear. It is possible that lift along an intersecting outflow emerging the Texas Panhandle could maintain a corridor of vigorous thunderstorm development, but this is not certain based on model output. Regardless, barring more substantive cold pool strengthening with the Texas Panhandle cluster than currently appears probable, there is little to suggest potential for a substantive increase in severe weather into mid morning. However, a couple of locally strong to severe gusts remain possible, along with some continuing risk for severe hail in stronger cells. ..Kerr.. 06/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...AMA... LAT...LON 36430004 36139857 35279811 34699680 33919690 34479924 35570028 36430004 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

MD 1297 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT WESTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1297 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Areas affected...the eastern Texas Panhandle and adjacent western Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 150856Z - 151100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Locally strong to severe surface gusts may continue another couple of hours with a small developing cluster of storms propagating through the eastern Texas Panhandle and adjacent portions of western Oklahoma. It is not clear that a severe weather watch is needed, but there appears at least some potential for a larger thunderstorm cluster to evolve, and trends are being monitored for this possibility. DISCUSSION...A sustained south-southeastward propagating cell appears to be undergoing at least some intensification across the Oklahoma into Texas Panhandle vicinity, with a small strengthening surface cold pool and rear inflow evident, which recently produced a gust to 45 kt at Guymon OK. Based on objective instability analyses and forecast soundings, the support for the recent intensification is a bit unclear. However, forcing for ascent accompanying convergence and warm advection, near the nose of the low-level jet associated with nocturnal boundary-layer decoupling (southwesterly up to 40 kt between the surface and 1 km AGL) may be a contributor. This low-level jet is probably now past peak intensity and should begin to weaken through daybreak, but it is possible that the strengthening cold pool may maintain the southeastward propagation of vigorous thunderstorm development, with perhaps potential for some further upscale growth. Taking into account sizable lower/mid-tropospheric temperature/dew point spreads, most unstable CAPE might still be in excess of 2000 J/kg across the eastern Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma, in the presence of light (on the order of 10-15 kt), but modestly sheared northwesterly deep-layer mean flow. ..Kerr/Gleason.. 06/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 36180118 36410079 35719950 34929967 34570093 35360172 35760144 36180118 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

WW 0417 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 417 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SSE AVK TO 35 NNW OKC TO 15 E OKC TO 45 S CQB. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 417 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 15/11Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1298. ..KERR..06/15/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 417 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC011-015-017-027-039-043-051-063-073-087-093-109-125-149-153- 151100- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND CUSTER DEWEY GRADY HUGHES KINGFISHER MCCLAIN MAJOR OKLAHOMA POTTAWATOMIE WASHITA WOODWARD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0417 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 417 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SSE AVK TO 35 NNW OKC TO 15 E OKC TO 45 S CQB. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 417 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 15/11Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1298. ..KERR..06/15/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 417 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC011-015-017-027-039-043-051-063-073-087-093-109-125-149-153- 151100- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND CUSTER DEWEY GRADY HUGHES KINGFISHER MCCLAIN MAJOR OKLAHOMA POTTAWATOMIE WASHITA WOODWARD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 417 SEVERE TSTM OK 150310Z - 151100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 417 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western into Central and Northeast Oklahoma * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 1010 PM until 600 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A few strong to severe thunderstorm clusters are forecast to develop and persist into the overnight across the northern half of the Watch. Large hail and severe gusts will be the primary hazards. A consolidation of thunderstorm outflow and thunderstorms merging into a larger cluster may occur tonight and move generally south. Severe gusts may become the primary hazard during this evolution, but isolated large hail could accompany the more intense thunderstorm cores. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles north northeast of Muskogee OK to 25 miles north northwest of Clinton OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 415...WW 416... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 32020. ...Smith Read more

WW 0417 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 417 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE AVK TO 30 N OKC TO 45 S CQB. ..KERR..06/15/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 417 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC011-015-017-027-039-043-051-063-073-087-093-109-125-149-153- 151040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND CUSTER DEWEY GRADY HUGHES KINGFISHER MCCLAIN MAJOR OKLAHOMA POTTAWATOMIE WASHITA WOODWARD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5... A mid-level trough is forecast to move through the Upper Midwest on Wednesday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the lower Missouri and mid-Mississippi Valleys. Ahead of the front, moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon. Thunderstorms appear likely to form along parts of the front, with several clusters or line segments moving eastward toward the instability axis during the late afternoon and early evening. Moderate deep-layer shear should support severe storms with large hail and wind damage as the primary threats. The mid-level trough is forecast to move into the lower Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley on Thursday, as the cold front advances into the central Appalachians. As the airmass ahead of the front destabilizes, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along and ahead of the front. The models suggest that moderate deep-layer shear will be in place across much of the northeastern U.S., which will likely support organized storms. Damaging winds gusts will be the most likely severe threat. ...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8... A shortwave mid-level ridge is forecast to move into the upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. The ridge is forecast to remain over the region on Saturday as mid-level heights rise. Beneath the ridge, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place from the lower to mid Missouri Valley northeastward into the western Great Lakes. Within this airmass, isolated thunderstorm development should take place both Friday and Saturday afternoon. Instability and deep-layer shear appear sufficient for a localized severe threat. However, the presence of the ridge introduces uncertainty as to where the greatest potential for convection will be. For this reason, predictability is low. On Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to develop over the Rockies as a ridge moves into the Great Lakes region. Although a moist and unstable airmass should be located over parts of the northern and eastern U.S., large-scale ascent and mid-level flow is forecast to be relatively weak in most areas. For this reason, any severe potential is expected to remain isolated. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5... A mid-level trough is forecast to move through the Upper Midwest on Wednesday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the lower Missouri and mid-Mississippi Valleys. Ahead of the front, moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon. Thunderstorms appear likely to form along parts of the front, with several clusters or line segments moving eastward toward the instability axis during the late afternoon and early evening. Moderate deep-layer shear should support severe storms with large hail and wind damage as the primary threats. The mid-level trough is forecast to move into the lower Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley on Thursday, as the cold front advances into the central Appalachians. As the airmass ahead of the front destabilizes, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along and ahead of the front. The models suggest that moderate deep-layer shear will be in place across much of the northeastern U.S., which will likely support organized storms. Damaging winds gusts will be the most likely severe threat. ...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8... A shortwave mid-level ridge is forecast to move into the upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. The ridge is forecast to remain over the region on Saturday as mid-level heights rise. Beneath the ridge, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place from the lower to mid Missouri Valley northeastward into the western Great Lakes. Within this airmass, isolated thunderstorm development should take place both Friday and Saturday afternoon. Instability and deep-layer shear appear sufficient for a localized severe threat. However, the presence of the ridge introduces uncertainty as to where the greatest potential for convection will be. For this reason, predictability is low. On Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to develop over the Rockies as a ridge moves into the Great Lakes region. Although a moist and unstable airmass should be located over parts of the northern and eastern U.S., large-scale ascent and mid-level flow is forecast to be relatively weak in most areas. For this reason, any severe potential is expected to remain isolated. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5... A mid-level trough is forecast to move through the Upper Midwest on Wednesday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the lower Missouri and mid-Mississippi Valleys. Ahead of the front, moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon. Thunderstorms appear likely to form along parts of the front, with several clusters or line segments moving eastward toward the instability axis during the late afternoon and early evening. Moderate deep-layer shear should support severe storms with large hail and wind damage as the primary threats. The mid-level trough is forecast to move into the lower Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley on Thursday, as the cold front advances into the central Appalachians. As the airmass ahead of the front destabilizes, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along and ahead of the front. The models suggest that moderate deep-layer shear will be in place across much of the northeastern U.S., which will likely support organized storms. Damaging winds gusts will be the most likely severe threat. ...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8... A shortwave mid-level ridge is forecast to move into the upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. The ridge is forecast to remain over the region on Saturday as mid-level heights rise. Beneath the ridge, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place from the lower to mid Missouri Valley northeastward into the western Great Lakes. Within this airmass, isolated thunderstorm development should take place both Friday and Saturday afternoon. Instability and deep-layer shear appear sufficient for a localized severe threat. However, the presence of the ridge introduces uncertainty as to where the greatest potential for convection will be. For this reason, predictability is low. On Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to develop over the Rockies as a ridge moves into the Great Lakes region. Although a moist and unstable airmass should be located over parts of the northern and eastern U.S., large-scale ascent and mid-level flow is forecast to be relatively weak in most areas. For this reason, any severe potential is expected to remain isolated. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5... A mid-level trough is forecast to move through the Upper Midwest on Wednesday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the lower Missouri and mid-Mississippi Valleys. Ahead of the front, moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon. Thunderstorms appear likely to form along parts of the front, with several clusters or line segments moving eastward toward the instability axis during the late afternoon and early evening. Moderate deep-layer shear should support severe storms with large hail and wind damage as the primary threats. The mid-level trough is forecast to move into the lower Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley on Thursday, as the cold front advances into the central Appalachians. As the airmass ahead of the front destabilizes, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along and ahead of the front. The models suggest that moderate deep-layer shear will be in place across much of the northeastern U.S., which will likely support organized storms. Damaging winds gusts will be the most likely severe threat. ...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8... A shortwave mid-level ridge is forecast to move into the upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. The ridge is forecast to remain over the region on Saturday as mid-level heights rise. Beneath the ridge, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place from the lower to mid Missouri Valley northeastward into the western Great Lakes. Within this airmass, isolated thunderstorm development should take place both Friday and Saturday afternoon. Instability and deep-layer shear appear sufficient for a localized severe threat. However, the presence of the ridge introduces uncertainty as to where the greatest potential for convection will be. For this reason, predictability is low. On Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to develop over the Rockies as a ridge moves into the Great Lakes region. Although a moist and unstable airmass should be located over parts of the northern and eastern U.S., large-scale ascent and mid-level flow is forecast to be relatively weak in most areas. For this reason, any severe potential is expected to remain isolated. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5... A mid-level trough is forecast to move through the Upper Midwest on Wednesday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the lower Missouri and mid-Mississippi Valleys. Ahead of the front, moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon. Thunderstorms appear likely to form along parts of the front, with several clusters or line segments moving eastward toward the instability axis during the late afternoon and early evening. Moderate deep-layer shear should support severe storms with large hail and wind damage as the primary threats. The mid-level trough is forecast to move into the lower Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley on Thursday, as the cold front advances into the central Appalachians. As the airmass ahead of the front destabilizes, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along and ahead of the front. The models suggest that moderate deep-layer shear will be in place across much of the northeastern U.S., which will likely support organized storms. Damaging winds gusts will be the most likely severe threat. ...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8... A shortwave mid-level ridge is forecast to move into the upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. The ridge is forecast to remain over the region on Saturday as mid-level heights rise. Beneath the ridge, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place from the lower to mid Missouri Valley northeastward into the western Great Lakes. Within this airmass, isolated thunderstorm development should take place both Friday and Saturday afternoon. Instability and deep-layer shear appear sufficient for a localized severe threat. However, the presence of the ridge introduces uncertainty as to where the greatest potential for convection will be. For this reason, predictability is low. On Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to develop over the Rockies as a ridge moves into the Great Lakes region. Although a moist and unstable airmass should be located over parts of the northern and eastern U.S., large-scale ascent and mid-level flow is forecast to be relatively weak in most areas. For this reason, any severe potential is expected to remain isolated. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5... A mid-level trough is forecast to move through the Upper Midwest on Wednesday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the lower Missouri and mid-Mississippi Valleys. Ahead of the front, moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon. Thunderstorms appear likely to form along parts of the front, with several clusters or line segments moving eastward toward the instability axis during the late afternoon and early evening. Moderate deep-layer shear should support severe storms with large hail and wind damage as the primary threats. The mid-level trough is forecast to move into the lower Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley on Thursday, as the cold front advances into the central Appalachians. As the airmass ahead of the front destabilizes, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along and ahead of the front. The models suggest that moderate deep-layer shear will be in place across much of the northeastern U.S., which will likely support organized storms. Damaging winds gusts will be the most likely severe threat. ...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8... A shortwave mid-level ridge is forecast to move into the upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. The ridge is forecast to remain over the region on Saturday as mid-level heights rise. Beneath the ridge, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place from the lower to mid Missouri Valley northeastward into the western Great Lakes. Within this airmass, isolated thunderstorm development should take place both Friday and Saturday afternoon. Instability and deep-layer shear appear sufficient for a localized severe threat. However, the presence of the ridge introduces uncertainty as to where the greatest potential for convection will be. For this reason, predictability is low. On Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to develop over the Rockies as a ridge moves into the Great Lakes region. Although a moist and unstable airmass should be located over parts of the northern and eastern U.S., large-scale ascent and mid-level flow is forecast to be relatively weak in most areas. For this reason, any severe potential is expected to remain isolated. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5... A mid-level trough is forecast to move through the Upper Midwest on Wednesday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the lower Missouri and mid-Mississippi Valleys. Ahead of the front, moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon. Thunderstorms appear likely to form along parts of the front, with several clusters or line segments moving eastward toward the instability axis during the late afternoon and early evening. Moderate deep-layer shear should support severe storms with large hail and wind damage as the primary threats. The mid-level trough is forecast to move into the lower Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley on Thursday, as the cold front advances into the central Appalachians. As the airmass ahead of the front destabilizes, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along and ahead of the front. The models suggest that moderate deep-layer shear will be in place across much of the northeastern U.S., which will likely support organized storms. Damaging winds gusts will be the most likely severe threat. ...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8... A shortwave mid-level ridge is forecast to move into the upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. The ridge is forecast to remain over the region on Saturday as mid-level heights rise. Beneath the ridge, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place from the lower to mid Missouri Valley northeastward into the western Great Lakes. Within this airmass, isolated thunderstorm development should take place both Friday and Saturday afternoon. Instability and deep-layer shear appear sufficient for a localized severe threat. However, the presence of the ridge introduces uncertainty as to where the greatest potential for convection will be. For this reason, predictability is low. On Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to develop over the Rockies as a ridge moves into the Great Lakes region. Although a moist and unstable airmass should be located over parts of the northern and eastern U.S., large-scale ascent and mid-level flow is forecast to be relatively weak in most areas. For this reason, any severe potential is expected to remain isolated. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5... A mid-level trough is forecast to move through the Upper Midwest on Wednesday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the lower Missouri and mid-Mississippi Valleys. Ahead of the front, moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon. Thunderstorms appear likely to form along parts of the front, with several clusters or line segments moving eastward toward the instability axis during the late afternoon and early evening. Moderate deep-layer shear should support severe storms with large hail and wind damage as the primary threats. The mid-level trough is forecast to move into the lower Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley on Thursday, as the cold front advances into the central Appalachians. As the airmass ahead of the front destabilizes, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along and ahead of the front. The models suggest that moderate deep-layer shear will be in place across much of the northeastern U.S., which will likely support organized storms. Damaging winds gusts will be the most likely severe threat. ...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8... A shortwave mid-level ridge is forecast to move into the upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. The ridge is forecast to remain over the region on Saturday as mid-level heights rise. Beneath the ridge, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place from the lower to mid Missouri Valley northeastward into the western Great Lakes. Within this airmass, isolated thunderstorm development should take place both Friday and Saturday afternoon. Instability and deep-layer shear appear sufficient for a localized severe threat. However, the presence of the ridge introduces uncertainty as to where the greatest potential for convection will be. For this reason, predictability is low. On Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to develop over the Rockies as a ridge moves into the Great Lakes region. Although a moist and unstable airmass should be located over parts of the northern and eastern U.S., large-scale ascent and mid-level flow is forecast to be relatively weak in most areas. For this reason, any severe potential is expected to remain isolated. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5... A mid-level trough is forecast to move through the Upper Midwest on Wednesday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the lower Missouri and mid-Mississippi Valleys. Ahead of the front, moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon. Thunderstorms appear likely to form along parts of the front, with several clusters or line segments moving eastward toward the instability axis during the late afternoon and early evening. Moderate deep-layer shear should support severe storms with large hail and wind damage as the primary threats. The mid-level trough is forecast to move into the lower Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley on Thursday, as the cold front advances into the central Appalachians. As the airmass ahead of the front destabilizes, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along and ahead of the front. The models suggest that moderate deep-layer shear will be in place across much of the northeastern U.S., which will likely support organized storms. Damaging winds gusts will be the most likely severe threat. ...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8... A shortwave mid-level ridge is forecast to move into the upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. The ridge is forecast to remain over the region on Saturday as mid-level heights rise. Beneath the ridge, a moist and unstable airmass will likely be in place from the lower to mid Missouri Valley northeastward into the western Great Lakes. Within this airmass, isolated thunderstorm development should take place both Friday and Saturday afternoon. Instability and deep-layer shear appear sufficient for a localized severe threat. However, the presence of the ridge introduces uncertainty as to where the greatest potential for convection will be. For this reason, predictability is low. On Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to develop over the Rockies as a ridge moves into the Great Lakes region. Although a moist and unstable airmass should be located over parts of the northern and eastern U.S., large-scale ascent and mid-level flow is forecast to be relatively weak in most areas. For this reason, any severe potential is expected to remain isolated. Read more

MD 1296 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 417... FOR PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL/CENTRAL OK
Mesoscale Discussion 1296 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Areas affected...parts of north central/central OK Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 417... Valid 150626Z - 150830Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 417 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is likely to continue through the remainder of the night, with potential to organize and begin to produce strong to severe wind gusts, particularly to the north of the Greater Oklahoma City area during the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...Convection likely remains rooted within forcing for ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, near the nose of a modest southwesterly nocturnal low-level jet. This is occurring above a boundary-layer air mass substantially impacted by prior convection, with little substantive surface cold pool strengthening evident with ongoing activity. Strongest continuing thunderstorm development through the next several hours appears likely to become increasingly focused along the western flank of the composite outflow, roughly east of Alva into areas north of Oklahoma City OK, where elevated (southwesterly) updraft inflow will remain most unstable. This may remain characterized by CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. Although this is embedded within westerly deep-layer mean flow on the order of 10 kt, veering profiles from southwesterly to northwesterly in lower/mid-levels may continue to support evolving supercell structures. It still appears possible that convection currently intensifying between Enid and Chandler could undergo substantive further upscale growth, and perhaps become accompanied by a more prominent southward propagating surface cold pool with increasing potential to produce strong to severe wind gusts by 08-10Z. ..Kerr.. 06/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 36769845 36449745 35759626 35279650 35159696 35159742 35839793 36299868 36769845 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0417 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 417 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE END TO 30 SSE PNC TO 35 WNW MLC. ..KERR..06/15/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 417 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC011-015-017-027-039-043-047-051-063-073-081-083-087-093-103- 109-119-125-133-149-153-150940- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND CUSTER DEWEY GARFIELD GRADY HUGHES KINGFISHER LINCOLN LOGAN MCCLAIN MAJOR NOBLE OKLAHOMA PAYNE POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE WASHITA WOODWARD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more