Severe Storms

MD 1295 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 416... FOR CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST MT
Mesoscale Discussion 1295 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Areas affected...Central into northeast MT Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 416... Valid 150446Z - 150615Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 416 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms may continue into the late night. DISCUSSION...Scattered storms are ongoing late this evening across parts of central MT. While intensities have decreased somewhat from the earlier severe hail producing storms, a storm has recently intensified in Wheatland County. MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and relatively strong effective shear (40-50 kt) will continue to support occasionally organized storms late tonight, with a threat of isolated hail and strong to severe gusts. Guidance varies regarding the magnitude of the severe threat into the overnight, though persistent convection within a sufficiently unstable and sheared environment could support an isolated threat eventually spreading into parts of northeast MT with time. ..Dean.. 06/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... LAT...LON 46381070 47461026 48350840 48680655 48690525 48220500 47310546 47070722 46311040 46381070 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large to very large hail and wind damage are expected on Monday from the north-central High Plains northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Outside of this area, marginally severe storms will be possible across much of the central and northern U.S. ...Minnesota/Wisconsin/South Dakota/Iowa/Nebraska... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the Dakotas on Monday, as an associated 45 to 60 knot mid-level jet translates eastward through the system. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward through the northern Plains. Convection will initially develop near the front across the Dakotas during the late morning, moving eastward into central and northern Minnesota during the afternoon. This activity will likely have an isolated severe threat. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to the low 70s F will contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Convective initiation further to the south across parts of southeastern South Dakota and south-central Minnesota should hold off until late afternoon when low-level convergence along the front is expected to become maximized. Scattered severe thunderstorms will likely develop near and to the south of the front, moving eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley from late afternoon into the evening. NAM forecast soundings along and near the instability axis late Monday afternoon have MLCAPE peaking in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This, combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.5 to 8.5 C/km, will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Mid-level lapse rates and instability is forecast to be greatest from far northeast Nebraska into southeast South Dakota and south-central Minnesota, where supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. The greatest severe threat coverage is expected from far eastern South Dakota into southwest and central Minnesota, where large-scale ascent will be enhanced by the exit region of the mid-level jet. This area will also have a strong low-level jet response, which is forecast to increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 250 to 350 m2/s2 range by early evening. As a result, a tornado threat is also expected. Wind damage will also be possible with supercells and short bowing line segments. ...Kansas/Oklahoma... A very moist and unstable airmass will be in place across much of the southern and central Plains on Monday. Surface dewpoints will be in the mid 60s to the lower 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. Within this unstable airmass, a substantial amount of low to mid-level directional shear is forecast. This will support an isolated severe threat with any cells that can overcome the warm air aloft. The greatest potential for isolated severe storms should be along any pre-existing boundaries, mainly during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Northern Rockies/North Dakota... A post-frontal airmass will be in place from the northern Rockies eastward into North Dakota. Surface dewpoints in the 50s F will contribute to moderate instability over much of the region by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop in the higher terrain of the northern Rockies and northern High Plains as surface temperatures warm during the day. Due to a lack of large-scale ascent, convective coverage should remain isolated. Deep-layer shear is forecast to be strong enough for isolated severe storms. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large to very large hail and wind damage are expected on Monday from the north-central High Plains northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Outside of this area, marginally severe storms will be possible across much of the central and northern U.S. ...Minnesota/Wisconsin/South Dakota/Iowa/Nebraska... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the Dakotas on Monday, as an associated 45 to 60 knot mid-level jet translates eastward through the system. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward through the northern Plains. Convection will initially develop near the front across the Dakotas during the late morning, moving eastward into central and northern Minnesota during the afternoon. This activity will likely have an isolated severe threat. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to the low 70s F will contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Convective initiation further to the south across parts of southeastern South Dakota and south-central Minnesota should hold off until late afternoon when low-level convergence along the front is expected to become maximized. Scattered severe thunderstorms will likely develop near and to the south of the front, moving eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley from late afternoon into the evening. NAM forecast soundings along and near the instability axis late Monday afternoon have MLCAPE peaking in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This, combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.5 to 8.5 C/km, will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Mid-level lapse rates and instability is forecast to be greatest from far northeast Nebraska into southeast South Dakota and south-central Minnesota, where supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. The greatest severe threat coverage is expected from far eastern South Dakota into southwest and central Minnesota, where large-scale ascent will be enhanced by the exit region of the mid-level jet. This area will also have a strong low-level jet response, which is forecast to increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 250 to 350 m2/s2 range by early evening. As a result, a tornado threat is also expected. Wind damage will also be possible with supercells and short bowing line segments. ...Kansas/Oklahoma... A very moist and unstable airmass will be in place across much of the southern and central Plains on Monday. Surface dewpoints will be in the mid 60s to the lower 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. Within this unstable airmass, a substantial amount of low to mid-level directional shear is forecast. This will support an isolated severe threat with any cells that can overcome the warm air aloft. The greatest potential for isolated severe storms should be along any pre-existing boundaries, mainly during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Northern Rockies/North Dakota... A post-frontal airmass will be in place from the northern Rockies eastward into North Dakota. Surface dewpoints in the 50s F will contribute to moderate instability over much of the region by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop in the higher terrain of the northern Rockies and northern High Plains as surface temperatures warm during the day. Due to a lack of large-scale ascent, convective coverage should remain isolated. Deep-layer shear is forecast to be strong enough for isolated severe storms. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large to very large hail and wind damage are expected on Monday from the north-central High Plains northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Outside of this area, marginally severe storms will be possible across much of the central and northern U.S. ...Minnesota/Wisconsin/South Dakota/Iowa/Nebraska... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the Dakotas on Monday, as an associated 45 to 60 knot mid-level jet translates eastward through the system. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward through the northern Plains. Convection will initially develop near the front across the Dakotas during the late morning, moving eastward into central and northern Minnesota during the afternoon. This activity will likely have an isolated severe threat. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to the low 70s F will contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Convective initiation further to the south across parts of southeastern South Dakota and south-central Minnesota should hold off until late afternoon when low-level convergence along the front is expected to become maximized. Scattered severe thunderstorms will likely develop near and to the south of the front, moving eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley from late afternoon into the evening. NAM forecast soundings along and near the instability axis late Monday afternoon have MLCAPE peaking in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This, combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.5 to 8.5 C/km, will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Mid-level lapse rates and instability is forecast to be greatest from far northeast Nebraska into southeast South Dakota and south-central Minnesota, where supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. The greatest severe threat coverage is expected from far eastern South Dakota into southwest and central Minnesota, where large-scale ascent will be enhanced by the exit region of the mid-level jet. This area will also have a strong low-level jet response, which is forecast to increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 250 to 350 m2/s2 range by early evening. As a result, a tornado threat is also expected. Wind damage will also be possible with supercells and short bowing line segments. ...Kansas/Oklahoma... A very moist and unstable airmass will be in place across much of the southern and central Plains on Monday. Surface dewpoints will be in the mid 60s to the lower 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. Within this unstable airmass, a substantial amount of low to mid-level directional shear is forecast. This will support an isolated severe threat with any cells that can overcome the warm air aloft. The greatest potential for isolated severe storms should be along any pre-existing boundaries, mainly during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Northern Rockies/North Dakota... A post-frontal airmass will be in place from the northern Rockies eastward into North Dakota. Surface dewpoints in the 50s F will contribute to moderate instability over much of the region by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop in the higher terrain of the northern Rockies and northern High Plains as surface temperatures warm during the day. Due to a lack of large-scale ascent, convective coverage should remain isolated. Deep-layer shear is forecast to be strong enough for isolated severe storms. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large to very large hail and wind damage are expected on Monday from the north-central High Plains northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Outside of this area, marginally severe storms will be possible across much of the central and northern U.S. ...Minnesota/Wisconsin/South Dakota/Iowa/Nebraska... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the Dakotas on Monday, as an associated 45 to 60 knot mid-level jet translates eastward through the system. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward through the northern Plains. Convection will initially develop near the front across the Dakotas during the late morning, moving eastward into central and northern Minnesota during the afternoon. This activity will likely have an isolated severe threat. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to the low 70s F will contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Convective initiation further to the south across parts of southeastern South Dakota and south-central Minnesota should hold off until late afternoon when low-level convergence along the front is expected to become maximized. Scattered severe thunderstorms will likely develop near and to the south of the front, moving eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley from late afternoon into the evening. NAM forecast soundings along and near the instability axis late Monday afternoon have MLCAPE peaking in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This, combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.5 to 8.5 C/km, will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Mid-level lapse rates and instability is forecast to be greatest from far northeast Nebraska into southeast South Dakota and south-central Minnesota, where supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. The greatest severe threat coverage is expected from far eastern South Dakota into southwest and central Minnesota, where large-scale ascent will be enhanced by the exit region of the mid-level jet. This area will also have a strong low-level jet response, which is forecast to increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 250 to 350 m2/s2 range by early evening. As a result, a tornado threat is also expected. Wind damage will also be possible with supercells and short bowing line segments. ...Kansas/Oklahoma... A very moist and unstable airmass will be in place across much of the southern and central Plains on Monday. Surface dewpoints will be in the mid 60s to the lower 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. Within this unstable airmass, a substantial amount of low to mid-level directional shear is forecast. This will support an isolated severe threat with any cells that can overcome the warm air aloft. The greatest potential for isolated severe storms should be along any pre-existing boundaries, mainly during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Northern Rockies/North Dakota... A post-frontal airmass will be in place from the northern Rockies eastward into North Dakota. Surface dewpoints in the 50s F will contribute to moderate instability over much of the region by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop in the higher terrain of the northern Rockies and northern High Plains as surface temperatures warm during the day. Due to a lack of large-scale ascent, convective coverage should remain isolated. Deep-layer shear is forecast to be strong enough for isolated severe storms. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large to very large hail and wind damage are expected on Monday from the north-central High Plains northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Outside of this area, marginally severe storms will be possible across much of the central and northern U.S. ...Minnesota/Wisconsin/South Dakota/Iowa/Nebraska... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the Dakotas on Monday, as an associated 45 to 60 knot mid-level jet translates eastward through the system. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward through the northern Plains. Convection will initially develop near the front across the Dakotas during the late morning, moving eastward into central and northern Minnesota during the afternoon. This activity will likely have an isolated severe threat. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to the low 70s F will contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Convective initiation further to the south across parts of southeastern South Dakota and south-central Minnesota should hold off until late afternoon when low-level convergence along the front is expected to become maximized. Scattered severe thunderstorms will likely develop near and to the south of the front, moving eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley from late afternoon into the evening. NAM forecast soundings along and near the instability axis late Monday afternoon have MLCAPE peaking in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This, combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.5 to 8.5 C/km, will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Mid-level lapse rates and instability is forecast to be greatest from far northeast Nebraska into southeast South Dakota and south-central Minnesota, where supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. The greatest severe threat coverage is expected from far eastern South Dakota into southwest and central Minnesota, where large-scale ascent will be enhanced by the exit region of the mid-level jet. This area will also have a strong low-level jet response, which is forecast to increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 250 to 350 m2/s2 range by early evening. As a result, a tornado threat is also expected. Wind damage will also be possible with supercells and short bowing line segments. ...Kansas/Oklahoma... A very moist and unstable airmass will be in place across much of the southern and central Plains on Monday. Surface dewpoints will be in the mid 60s to the lower 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. Within this unstable airmass, a substantial amount of low to mid-level directional shear is forecast. This will support an isolated severe threat with any cells that can overcome the warm air aloft. The greatest potential for isolated severe storms should be along any pre-existing boundaries, mainly during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Northern Rockies/North Dakota... A post-frontal airmass will be in place from the northern Rockies eastward into North Dakota. Surface dewpoints in the 50s F will contribute to moderate instability over much of the region by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop in the higher terrain of the northern Rockies and northern High Plains as surface temperatures warm during the day. Due to a lack of large-scale ascent, convective coverage should remain isolated. Deep-layer shear is forecast to be strong enough for isolated severe storms. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large to very large hail and wind damage are expected on Monday from the north-central High Plains northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Outside of this area, marginally severe storms will be possible across much of the central and northern U.S. ...Minnesota/Wisconsin/South Dakota/Iowa/Nebraska... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the Dakotas on Monday, as an associated 45 to 60 knot mid-level jet translates eastward through the system. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward through the northern Plains. Convection will initially develop near the front across the Dakotas during the late morning, moving eastward into central and northern Minnesota during the afternoon. This activity will likely have an isolated severe threat. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to the low 70s F will contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Convective initiation further to the south across parts of southeastern South Dakota and south-central Minnesota should hold off until late afternoon when low-level convergence along the front is expected to become maximized. Scattered severe thunderstorms will likely develop near and to the south of the front, moving eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley from late afternoon into the evening. NAM forecast soundings along and near the instability axis late Monday afternoon have MLCAPE peaking in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This, combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.5 to 8.5 C/km, will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Mid-level lapse rates and instability is forecast to be greatest from far northeast Nebraska into southeast South Dakota and south-central Minnesota, where supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. The greatest severe threat coverage is expected from far eastern South Dakota into southwest and central Minnesota, where large-scale ascent will be enhanced by the exit region of the mid-level jet. This area will also have a strong low-level jet response, which is forecast to increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 250 to 350 m2/s2 range by early evening. As a result, a tornado threat is also expected. Wind damage will also be possible with supercells and short bowing line segments. ...Kansas/Oklahoma... A very moist and unstable airmass will be in place across much of the southern and central Plains on Monday. Surface dewpoints will be in the mid 60s to the lower 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. Within this unstable airmass, a substantial amount of low to mid-level directional shear is forecast. This will support an isolated severe threat with any cells that can overcome the warm air aloft. The greatest potential for isolated severe storms should be along any pre-existing boundaries, mainly during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Northern Rockies/North Dakota... A post-frontal airmass will be in place from the northern Rockies eastward into North Dakota. Surface dewpoints in the 50s F will contribute to moderate instability over much of the region by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop in the higher terrain of the northern Rockies and northern High Plains as surface temperatures warm during the day. Due to a lack of large-scale ascent, convective coverage should remain isolated. Deep-layer shear is forecast to be strong enough for isolated severe storms. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large to very large hail and wind damage are expected on Monday from the north-central High Plains northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Outside of this area, marginally severe storms will be possible across much of the central and northern U.S. ...Minnesota/Wisconsin/South Dakota/Iowa/Nebraska... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the Dakotas on Monday, as an associated 45 to 60 knot mid-level jet translates eastward through the system. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward through the northern Plains. Convection will initially develop near the front across the Dakotas during the late morning, moving eastward into central and northern Minnesota during the afternoon. This activity will likely have an isolated severe threat. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to the low 70s F will contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Convective initiation further to the south across parts of southeastern South Dakota and south-central Minnesota should hold off until late afternoon when low-level convergence along the front is expected to become maximized. Scattered severe thunderstorms will likely develop near and to the south of the front, moving eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley from late afternoon into the evening. NAM forecast soundings along and near the instability axis late Monday afternoon have MLCAPE peaking in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This, combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.5 to 8.5 C/km, will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Mid-level lapse rates and instability is forecast to be greatest from far northeast Nebraska into southeast South Dakota and south-central Minnesota, where supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. The greatest severe threat coverage is expected from far eastern South Dakota into southwest and central Minnesota, where large-scale ascent will be enhanced by the exit region of the mid-level jet. This area will also have a strong low-level jet response, which is forecast to increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 250 to 350 m2/s2 range by early evening. As a result, a tornado threat is also expected. Wind damage will also be possible with supercells and short bowing line segments. ...Kansas/Oklahoma... A very moist and unstable airmass will be in place across much of the southern and central Plains on Monday. Surface dewpoints will be in the mid 60s to the lower 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. Within this unstable airmass, a substantial amount of low to mid-level directional shear is forecast. This will support an isolated severe threat with any cells that can overcome the warm air aloft. The greatest potential for isolated severe storms should be along any pre-existing boundaries, mainly during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Northern Rockies/North Dakota... A post-frontal airmass will be in place from the northern Rockies eastward into North Dakota. Surface dewpoints in the 50s F will contribute to moderate instability over much of the region by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop in the higher terrain of the northern Rockies and northern High Plains as surface temperatures warm during the day. Due to a lack of large-scale ascent, convective coverage should remain isolated. Deep-layer shear is forecast to be strong enough for isolated severe storms. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large to very large hail and wind damage are expected on Monday from the north-central High Plains northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Outside of this area, marginally severe storms will be possible across much of the central and northern U.S. ...Minnesota/Wisconsin/South Dakota/Iowa/Nebraska... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the Dakotas on Monday, as an associated 45 to 60 knot mid-level jet translates eastward through the system. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward through the northern Plains. Convection will initially develop near the front across the Dakotas during the late morning, moving eastward into central and northern Minnesota during the afternoon. This activity will likely have an isolated severe threat. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to the low 70s F will contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Convective initiation further to the south across parts of southeastern South Dakota and south-central Minnesota should hold off until late afternoon when low-level convergence along the front is expected to become maximized. Scattered severe thunderstorms will likely develop near and to the south of the front, moving eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley from late afternoon into the evening. NAM forecast soundings along and near the instability axis late Monday afternoon have MLCAPE peaking in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This, combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.5 to 8.5 C/km, will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Mid-level lapse rates and instability is forecast to be greatest from far northeast Nebraska into southeast South Dakota and south-central Minnesota, where supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. The greatest severe threat coverage is expected from far eastern South Dakota into southwest and central Minnesota, where large-scale ascent will be enhanced by the exit region of the mid-level jet. This area will also have a strong low-level jet response, which is forecast to increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 250 to 350 m2/s2 range by early evening. As a result, a tornado threat is also expected. Wind damage will also be possible with supercells and short bowing line segments. ...Kansas/Oklahoma... A very moist and unstable airmass will be in place across much of the southern and central Plains on Monday. Surface dewpoints will be in the mid 60s to the lower 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. Within this unstable airmass, a substantial amount of low to mid-level directional shear is forecast. This will support an isolated severe threat with any cells that can overcome the warm air aloft. The greatest potential for isolated severe storms should be along any pre-existing boundaries, mainly during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Northern Rockies/North Dakota... A post-frontal airmass will be in place from the northern Rockies eastward into North Dakota. Surface dewpoints in the 50s F will contribute to moderate instability over much of the region by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop in the higher terrain of the northern Rockies and northern High Plains as surface temperatures warm during the day. Due to a lack of large-scale ascent, convective coverage should remain isolated. Deep-layer shear is forecast to be strong enough for isolated severe storms. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large to very large hail and wind damage are expected on Monday from the north-central High Plains northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Outside of this area, marginally severe storms will be possible across much of the central and northern U.S. ...Minnesota/Wisconsin/South Dakota/Iowa/Nebraska... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the Dakotas on Monday, as an associated 45 to 60 knot mid-level jet translates eastward through the system. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward through the northern Plains. Convection will initially develop near the front across the Dakotas during the late morning, moving eastward into central and northern Minnesota during the afternoon. This activity will likely have an isolated severe threat. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to the low 70s F will contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Convective initiation further to the south across parts of southeastern South Dakota and south-central Minnesota should hold off until late afternoon when low-level convergence along the front is expected to become maximized. Scattered severe thunderstorms will likely develop near and to the south of the front, moving eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley from late afternoon into the evening. NAM forecast soundings along and near the instability axis late Monday afternoon have MLCAPE peaking in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This, combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.5 to 8.5 C/km, will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Mid-level lapse rates and instability is forecast to be greatest from far northeast Nebraska into southeast South Dakota and south-central Minnesota, where supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. The greatest severe threat coverage is expected from far eastern South Dakota into southwest and central Minnesota, where large-scale ascent will be enhanced by the exit region of the mid-level jet. This area will also have a strong low-level jet response, which is forecast to increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 250 to 350 m2/s2 range by early evening. As a result, a tornado threat is also expected. Wind damage will also be possible with supercells and short bowing line segments. ...Kansas/Oklahoma... A very moist and unstable airmass will be in place across much of the southern and central Plains on Monday. Surface dewpoints will be in the mid 60s to the lower 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. Within this unstable airmass, a substantial amount of low to mid-level directional shear is forecast. This will support an isolated severe threat with any cells that can overcome the warm air aloft. The greatest potential for isolated severe storms should be along any pre-existing boundaries, mainly during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Northern Rockies/North Dakota... A post-frontal airmass will be in place from the northern Rockies eastward into North Dakota. Surface dewpoints in the 50s F will contribute to moderate instability over much of the region by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop in the higher terrain of the northern Rockies and northern High Plains as surface temperatures warm during the day. Due to a lack of large-scale ascent, convective coverage should remain isolated. Deep-layer shear is forecast to be strong enough for isolated severe storms. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large to very large hail and wind damage are expected on Monday from the north-central High Plains northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Outside of this area, marginally severe storms will be possible across much of the central and northern U.S. ...Minnesota/Wisconsin/South Dakota/Iowa/Nebraska... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the Dakotas on Monday, as an associated 45 to 60 knot mid-level jet translates eastward through the system. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward through the northern Plains. Convection will initially develop near the front across the Dakotas during the late morning, moving eastward into central and northern Minnesota during the afternoon. This activity will likely have an isolated severe threat. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to the low 70s F will contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Convective initiation further to the south across parts of southeastern South Dakota and south-central Minnesota should hold off until late afternoon when low-level convergence along the front is expected to become maximized. Scattered severe thunderstorms will likely develop near and to the south of the front, moving eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley from late afternoon into the evening. NAM forecast soundings along and near the instability axis late Monday afternoon have MLCAPE peaking in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This, combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.5 to 8.5 C/km, will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Mid-level lapse rates and instability is forecast to be greatest from far northeast Nebraska into southeast South Dakota and south-central Minnesota, where supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. The greatest severe threat coverage is expected from far eastern South Dakota into southwest and central Minnesota, where large-scale ascent will be enhanced by the exit region of the mid-level jet. This area will also have a strong low-level jet response, which is forecast to increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 250 to 350 m2/s2 range by early evening. As a result, a tornado threat is also expected. Wind damage will also be possible with supercells and short bowing line segments. ...Kansas/Oklahoma... A very moist and unstable airmass will be in place across much of the southern and central Plains on Monday. Surface dewpoints will be in the mid 60s to the lower 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. Within this unstable airmass, a substantial amount of low to mid-level directional shear is forecast. This will support an isolated severe threat with any cells that can overcome the warm air aloft. The greatest potential for isolated severe storms should be along any pre-existing boundaries, mainly during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Northern Rockies/North Dakota... A post-frontal airmass will be in place from the northern Rockies eastward into North Dakota. Surface dewpoints in the 50s F will contribute to moderate instability over much of the region by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop in the higher terrain of the northern Rockies and northern High Plains as surface temperatures warm during the day. Due to a lack of large-scale ascent, convective coverage should remain isolated. Deep-layer shear is forecast to be strong enough for isolated severe storms. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large to very large hail and wind damage are expected on Monday from the north-central High Plains northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Outside of this area, marginally severe storms will be possible across much of the central and northern U.S. ...Minnesota/Wisconsin/South Dakota/Iowa/Nebraska... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the Dakotas on Monday, as an associated 45 to 60 knot mid-level jet translates eastward through the system. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward through the northern Plains. Convection will initially develop near the front across the Dakotas during the late morning, moving eastward into central and northern Minnesota during the afternoon. This activity will likely have an isolated severe threat. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to the low 70s F will contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Convective initiation further to the south across parts of southeastern South Dakota and south-central Minnesota should hold off until late afternoon when low-level convergence along the front is expected to become maximized. Scattered severe thunderstorms will likely develop near and to the south of the front, moving eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley from late afternoon into the evening. NAM forecast soundings along and near the instability axis late Monday afternoon have MLCAPE peaking in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This, combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.5 to 8.5 C/km, will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Mid-level lapse rates and instability is forecast to be greatest from far northeast Nebraska into southeast South Dakota and south-central Minnesota, where supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. The greatest severe threat coverage is expected from far eastern South Dakota into southwest and central Minnesota, where large-scale ascent will be enhanced by the exit region of the mid-level jet. This area will also have a strong low-level jet response, which is forecast to increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 250 to 350 m2/s2 range by early evening. As a result, a tornado threat is also expected. Wind damage will also be possible with supercells and short bowing line segments. ...Kansas/Oklahoma... A very moist and unstable airmass will be in place across much of the southern and central Plains on Monday. Surface dewpoints will be in the mid 60s to the lower 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. Within this unstable airmass, a substantial amount of low to mid-level directional shear is forecast. This will support an isolated severe threat with any cells that can overcome the warm air aloft. The greatest potential for isolated severe storms should be along any pre-existing boundaries, mainly during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Northern Rockies/North Dakota... A post-frontal airmass will be in place from the northern Rockies eastward into North Dakota. Surface dewpoints in the 50s F will contribute to moderate instability over much of the region by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop in the higher terrain of the northern Rockies and northern High Plains as surface temperatures warm during the day. Due to a lack of large-scale ascent, convective coverage should remain isolated. Deep-layer shear is forecast to be strong enough for isolated severe storms. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large to very large hail and wind damage are expected on Monday from the north-central High Plains northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Outside of this area, marginally severe storms will be possible across much of the central and northern U.S. ...Minnesota/Wisconsin/South Dakota/Iowa/Nebraska... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the Dakotas on Monday, as an associated 45 to 60 knot mid-level jet translates eastward through the system. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward through the northern Plains. Convection will initially develop near the front across the Dakotas during the late morning, moving eastward into central and northern Minnesota during the afternoon. This activity will likely have an isolated severe threat. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to the low 70s F will contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Convective initiation further to the south across parts of southeastern South Dakota and south-central Minnesota should hold off until late afternoon when low-level convergence along the front is expected to become maximized. Scattered severe thunderstorms will likely develop near and to the south of the front, moving eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley from late afternoon into the evening. NAM forecast soundings along and near the instability axis late Monday afternoon have MLCAPE peaking in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This, combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.5 to 8.5 C/km, will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Mid-level lapse rates and instability is forecast to be greatest from far northeast Nebraska into southeast South Dakota and south-central Minnesota, where supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. The greatest severe threat coverage is expected from far eastern South Dakota into southwest and central Minnesota, where large-scale ascent will be enhanced by the exit region of the mid-level jet. This area will also have a strong low-level jet response, which is forecast to increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 250 to 350 m2/s2 range by early evening. As a result, a tornado threat is also expected. Wind damage will also be possible with supercells and short bowing line segments. ...Kansas/Oklahoma... A very moist and unstable airmass will be in place across much of the southern and central Plains on Monday. Surface dewpoints will be in the mid 60s to the lower 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. Within this unstable airmass, a substantial amount of low to mid-level directional shear is forecast. This will support an isolated severe threat with any cells that can overcome the warm air aloft. The greatest potential for isolated severe storms should be along any pre-existing boundaries, mainly during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Northern Rockies/North Dakota... A post-frontal airmass will be in place from the northern Rockies eastward into North Dakota. Surface dewpoints in the 50s F will contribute to moderate instability over much of the region by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop in the higher terrain of the northern Rockies and northern High Plains as surface temperatures warm during the day. Due to a lack of large-scale ascent, convective coverage should remain isolated. Deep-layer shear is forecast to be strong enough for isolated severe storms. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large to very large hail and wind damage are expected on Monday from the north-central High Plains northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Outside of this area, marginally severe storms will be possible across much of the central and northern U.S. ...Minnesota/Wisconsin/South Dakota/Iowa/Nebraska... A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward across the Dakotas on Monday, as an associated 45 to 60 knot mid-level jet translates eastward through the system. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward through the northern Plains. Convection will initially develop near the front across the Dakotas during the late morning, moving eastward into central and northern Minnesota during the afternoon. This activity will likely have an isolated severe threat. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to the low 70s F will contribute to moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Convective initiation further to the south across parts of southeastern South Dakota and south-central Minnesota should hold off until late afternoon when low-level convergence along the front is expected to become maximized. Scattered severe thunderstorms will likely develop near and to the south of the front, moving eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley from late afternoon into the evening. NAM forecast soundings along and near the instability axis late Monday afternoon have MLCAPE peaking in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This, combined with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.5 to 8.5 C/km, will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Mid-level lapse rates and instability is forecast to be greatest from far northeast Nebraska into southeast South Dakota and south-central Minnesota, where supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. The greatest severe threat coverage is expected from far eastern South Dakota into southwest and central Minnesota, where large-scale ascent will be enhanced by the exit region of the mid-level jet. This area will also have a strong low-level jet response, which is forecast to increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 250 to 350 m2/s2 range by early evening. As a result, a tornado threat is also expected. Wind damage will also be possible with supercells and short bowing line segments. ...Kansas/Oklahoma... A very moist and unstable airmass will be in place across much of the southern and central Plains on Monday. Surface dewpoints will be in the mid 60s to the lower 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. Within this unstable airmass, a substantial amount of low to mid-level directional shear is forecast. This will support an isolated severe threat with any cells that can overcome the warm air aloft. The greatest potential for isolated severe storms should be along any pre-existing boundaries, mainly during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Northern Rockies/North Dakota... A post-frontal airmass will be in place from the northern Rockies eastward into North Dakota. Surface dewpoints in the 50s F will contribute to moderate instability over much of the region by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop in the higher terrain of the northern Rockies and northern High Plains as surface temperatures warm during the day. Due to a lack of large-scale ascent, convective coverage should remain isolated. Deep-layer shear is forecast to be strong enough for isolated severe storms. Hail and strong wind gusts will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 06/15/2025 Read more

MD 1294 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 417... FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OK
Mesoscale Discussion 1294 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Areas affected...Parts of central/northeast OK Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 417... Valid 150434Z - 150600Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 417 continues. SUMMARY...A severe threat will continue into the early overnight. DISCUSSION...A small storm cluster is propagating south-southeastward across central OK late this evening. A couple of embedded supercells are ongoing within this cluster, with additional development noted along the western portion of the trailing outflow. Despite some nocturnal cooling, instability remains large across the region, with MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg near/south of the outflow. Effective shear of 30-40 kt will continue to support organized convection into the early overnight. Increasing low-level flow (as noted on the KTLX VWP) may continue to aid in development near/north of the outflow boundary/gust front, with some backbuilding possible. The stronger embedded cores remain capable of producing large hail, with some increase in severe-wind potential possible with time if any further upscale growth can occur. ..Dean.. 06/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 35199820 35329843 35559861 35919862 36059860 36259810 35959706 36249641 36759620 36759569 36629546 36249531 35769552 35469583 35369604 35329622 35049694 35019748 35059790 35199820 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0417 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 417 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..06/15/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 417 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC011-015-017-021-027-035-037-039-043-047-051-063-071-073-081- 083-087-091-093-097-101-103-105-107-109-111-113-117-119-125-131- 133-143-145-147-149-153-150640- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN CHEROKEE CLEVELAND CRAIG CREEK CUSTER DEWEY GARFIELD GRADY HUGHES KAY KINGFISHER LINCOLN LOGAN MCCLAIN MCINTOSH MAJOR MAYES MUSKOGEE NOBLE NOWATA OKFUSKEE OKLAHOMA OKMULGEE OSAGE PAWNEE PAYNE POTTAWATOMIE ROGERS SEMINOLE TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON WASHITA WOODWARD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0416 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 416 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW GDV TO 35 NW MLS TO 25 WNW 3HT. ..KERR..06/15/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 416 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC027-033-045-055-069-079-150640- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FERGUS GARFIELD JUDITH BASIN MCCONE PETROLEUM PRAIRIE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail and swaths of damaging gusts are possible across portions of Montana into northeast Wyoming, and parts of the western Dakotas this afternoon and evening. Additional strong to severe storms may occur across the central/southern High Plains, and over parts of Virginia and North Carolina. ...MT/WY into the Dakotas... An upper ridge will be oriented over the Rockies/adjacent High Plains vicinity today. However, a shortwave impulse is forecast to eject through the top of the ridge during the late afternoon/evening, providing some large-scale ascent and increasing mid/upper westerly flow. In the low-levels, a surface boundary/residual outflow from prior convection is forecast to be oriented across south-central/southeast MT eastward along the ND/SD border vicinity. East to southeasterly low-level flow will transport mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints along this boundary and to the east of a lee surface trough extending southward across eastern WY/CO. Strong surface heating and steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization (2000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE). One or more clusters of storms is forecast to develop over higher terrain of central MT, southeastward into northeast WY. Supercell wind profiles, with elongated/straight hodographs above 2-3 km suggest initial cells over central into southeast MT will pose a risk for large to very large hail (2+ inch diameter) in addition to strong wind gusts. With time, clustering is expected and upscale growth into an east/southeast progressing MCS/bow tracking along an instability gradient/west-east surface boundary is forecast. Damaging wind gusts, some potentially up to 80 mph, will be possible once upscale development occurs. The east/southeast extent of greater severe wind potential is a bit uncertain, however, decreasing instability and increasing inhibition with eastward extent should limit eastward progression into the eastern Dakotas overnight. ...Central High Plains vicinity... Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms are likely to develop along the surface trough/dryline within a moist upslope flow regime across portions of southeast WY into parts of eastern CO and perhaps persist into western NE/KS. This activity will pose a risk of strong outflow winds given a deeply mixed boundary layer and very steep low-level lapse rates. Isolated hail is also possible where any updrafts can be maintained within the modestly sheared environment. ...Eastern NM into TX/OK/AR... Convection will be ongoing across OK and western AR at the beginning of the forecast period this morning. Gusty winds may accompany this activity. Additional convection may develop or re-intensify as outflow develops southward across portions of northwest/north TX as stronger heating occurs by midday. Some potential exists that the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) may need to be expanded southward across TX if a stronger forward propagating MCS can be maintained. However, vertical shear is forecast to be weak and confidence in robust, organized convection with southward extent is low. Additional storms may develop across AR during the afternoon in the vicinity of a potential eastward developing MCV. Isolated strong gusts and may accompany this activity as well. Additional isolated thunderstorms producing gusty winds and perhaps hail may develop along the surface trough across eastern NM during the late afternoon as well. ...VA/NC... A mid/upper shortwave impulse will track east across the central/southern Appalachians today. Meanwhile, a lee low is forecast to track eastward near the NC/VA border through the afternoon. A seasonally moist and unstable airmass will be in place across the Piedmont into the coastal plain. Poor midlevel lapse rates and weak vertical shear should limit overall severe potential, but isolated wet microbursts or possibly marginal hail with stronger updrafts pulses will be possible. ..Leitman/Supinie.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail and swaths of damaging gusts are possible across portions of Montana into northeast Wyoming, and parts of the western Dakotas this afternoon and evening. Additional strong to severe storms may occur across the central/southern High Plains, and over parts of Virginia and North Carolina. ...MT/WY into the Dakotas... An upper ridge will be oriented over the Rockies/adjacent High Plains vicinity today. However, a shortwave impulse is forecast to eject through the top of the ridge during the late afternoon/evening, providing some large-scale ascent and increasing mid/upper westerly flow. In the low-levels, a surface boundary/residual outflow from prior convection is forecast to be oriented across south-central/southeast MT eastward along the ND/SD border vicinity. East to southeasterly low-level flow will transport mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints along this boundary and to the east of a lee surface trough extending southward across eastern WY/CO. Strong surface heating and steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization (2000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE). One or more clusters of storms is forecast to develop over higher terrain of central MT, southeastward into northeast WY. Supercell wind profiles, with elongated/straight hodographs above 2-3 km suggest initial cells over central into southeast MT will pose a risk for large to very large hail (2+ inch diameter) in addition to strong wind gusts. With time, clustering is expected and upscale growth into an east/southeast progressing MCS/bow tracking along an instability gradient/west-east surface boundary is forecast. Damaging wind gusts, some potentially up to 80 mph, will be possible once upscale development occurs. The east/southeast extent of greater severe wind potential is a bit uncertain, however, decreasing instability and increasing inhibition with eastward extent should limit eastward progression into the eastern Dakotas overnight. ...Central High Plains vicinity... Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms are likely to develop along the surface trough/dryline within a moist upslope flow regime across portions of southeast WY into parts of eastern CO and perhaps persist into western NE/KS. This activity will pose a risk of strong outflow winds given a deeply mixed boundary layer and very steep low-level lapse rates. Isolated hail is also possible where any updrafts can be maintained within the modestly sheared environment. ...Eastern NM into TX/OK/AR... Convection will be ongoing across OK and western AR at the beginning of the forecast period this morning. Gusty winds may accompany this activity. Additional convection may develop or re-intensify as outflow develops southward across portions of northwest/north TX as stronger heating occurs by midday. Some potential exists that the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) may need to be expanded southward across TX if a stronger forward propagating MCS can be maintained. However, vertical shear is forecast to be weak and confidence in robust, organized convection with southward extent is low. Additional storms may develop across AR during the afternoon in the vicinity of a potential eastward developing MCV. Isolated strong gusts and may accompany this activity as well. Additional isolated thunderstorms producing gusty winds and perhaps hail may develop along the surface trough across eastern NM during the late afternoon as well. ...VA/NC... A mid/upper shortwave impulse will track east across the central/southern Appalachians today. Meanwhile, a lee low is forecast to track eastward near the NC/VA border through the afternoon. A seasonally moist and unstable airmass will be in place across the Piedmont into the coastal plain. Poor midlevel lapse rates and weak vertical shear should limit overall severe potential, but isolated wet microbursts or possibly marginal hail with stronger updrafts pulses will be possible. ..Leitman/Supinie.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail and swaths of damaging gusts are possible across portions of Montana into northeast Wyoming, and parts of the western Dakotas this afternoon and evening. Additional strong to severe storms may occur across the central/southern High Plains, and over parts of Virginia and North Carolina. ...MT/WY into the Dakotas... An upper ridge will be oriented over the Rockies/adjacent High Plains vicinity today. However, a shortwave impulse is forecast to eject through the top of the ridge during the late afternoon/evening, providing some large-scale ascent and increasing mid/upper westerly flow. In the low-levels, a surface boundary/residual outflow from prior convection is forecast to be oriented across south-central/southeast MT eastward along the ND/SD border vicinity. East to southeasterly low-level flow will transport mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints along this boundary and to the east of a lee surface trough extending southward across eastern WY/CO. Strong surface heating and steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization (2000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE). One or more clusters of storms is forecast to develop over higher terrain of central MT, southeastward into northeast WY. Supercell wind profiles, with elongated/straight hodographs above 2-3 km suggest initial cells over central into southeast MT will pose a risk for large to very large hail (2+ inch diameter) in addition to strong wind gusts. With time, clustering is expected and upscale growth into an east/southeast progressing MCS/bow tracking along an instability gradient/west-east surface boundary is forecast. Damaging wind gusts, some potentially up to 80 mph, will be possible once upscale development occurs. The east/southeast extent of greater severe wind potential is a bit uncertain, however, decreasing instability and increasing inhibition with eastward extent should limit eastward progression into the eastern Dakotas overnight. ...Central High Plains vicinity... Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms are likely to develop along the surface trough/dryline within a moist upslope flow regime across portions of southeast WY into parts of eastern CO and perhaps persist into western NE/KS. This activity will pose a risk of strong outflow winds given a deeply mixed boundary layer and very steep low-level lapse rates. Isolated hail is also possible where any updrafts can be maintained within the modestly sheared environment. ...Eastern NM into TX/OK/AR... Convection will be ongoing across OK and western AR at the beginning of the forecast period this morning. Gusty winds may accompany this activity. Additional convection may develop or re-intensify as outflow develops southward across portions of northwest/north TX as stronger heating occurs by midday. Some potential exists that the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) may need to be expanded southward across TX if a stronger forward propagating MCS can be maintained. However, vertical shear is forecast to be weak and confidence in robust, organized convection with southward extent is low. Additional storms may develop across AR during the afternoon in the vicinity of a potential eastward developing MCV. Isolated strong gusts and may accompany this activity as well. Additional isolated thunderstorms producing gusty winds and perhaps hail may develop along the surface trough across eastern NM during the late afternoon as well. ...VA/NC... A mid/upper shortwave impulse will track east across the central/southern Appalachians today. Meanwhile, a lee low is forecast to track eastward near the NC/VA border through the afternoon. A seasonally moist and unstable airmass will be in place across the Piedmont into the coastal plain. Poor midlevel lapse rates and weak vertical shear should limit overall severe potential, but isolated wet microbursts or possibly marginal hail with stronger updrafts pulses will be possible. ..Leitman/Supinie.. 06/15/2025 Read more