Severe Storms

WW 0414 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 414 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E FCL TO 15 ENE SNY TO 20 ESE CDR TO 40 NNE CPR. WW 414 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 150300Z. ..SUPINIE..06/15/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...UNR...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 414 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC075-087-123-150300- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LOGAN MORGAN WELD SDC033-047-150300- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUSTER FALL RIVER WYC005-011-019-045-150300- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMPBELL CROOK JOHNSON WESTON Read more

WW 0414 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 414 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E FCL TO 15 ENE SNY TO 20 ESE CDR TO 40 NNE CPR. WW 414 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 150300Z. ..SUPINIE..06/15/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...UNR...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 414 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC075-087-123-150300- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LOGAN MORGAN WELD SDC033-047-150300- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUSTER FALL RIVER WYC005-011-019-045-150300- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMPBELL CROOK JOHNSON WESTON Read more

WW 0414 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 414 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E FCL TO 15 ENE SNY TO 20 ESE CDR TO 40 NNE CPR. WW 414 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 150300Z. ..SUPINIE..06/15/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...UNR...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 414 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC075-087-123-150300- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LOGAN MORGAN WELD SDC033-047-150300- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUSTER FALL RIVER WYC005-011-019-045-150300- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMPBELL CROOK JOHNSON WESTON Read more

WW 0414 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 414 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E FCL TO 15 ENE SNY TO 20 ESE CDR TO 40 NNE CPR. WW 414 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 150300Z. ..SUPINIE..06/15/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...UNR...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 414 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC075-087-123-150300- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LOGAN MORGAN WELD SDC033-047-150300- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUSTER FALL RIVER WYC005-011-019-045-150300- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMPBELL CROOK JOHNSON WESTON Read more

WW 0414 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 414 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E FCL TO 15 ENE SNY TO 20 ESE CDR TO 40 NNE CPR. WW 414 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 150300Z. ..SUPINIE..06/15/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...UNR...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 414 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC075-087-123-150300- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LOGAN MORGAN WELD SDC033-047-150300- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUSTER FALL RIVER WYC005-011-019-045-150300- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMPBELL CROOK JOHNSON WESTON Read more

WW 0414 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 414 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E FCL TO 15 ENE SNY TO 20 ESE CDR TO 40 NNE CPR. WW 414 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 150300Z. ..SUPINIE..06/15/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...UNR...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 414 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC075-087-123-150300- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LOGAN MORGAN WELD SDC033-047-150300- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUSTER FALL RIVER WYC005-011-019-045-150300- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMPBELL CROOK JOHNSON WESTON Read more

WW 414 SEVERE TSTM CO NE SD WY 142040Z - 150300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 414 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 240 PM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Colorado The Nebraska Panhandle Extreme southwest South Dakota Eastern Wyoming * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 240 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A few thunderstorm clusters, and potentially a couple of supercells, are expected to form and spread eastward from eastern Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle and adjacent parts of far southwest South Dakota and northeast Colorado through late evening. Large hail of 1-2 inches in diameter and severe outflow gusts of 60-70 mph will be the main threats. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north northeast of Gillette WY to 60 miles southwest of Sidney NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27020. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0415 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 415 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW PRX TO 5 WSW SPS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1293 ..DEAN..06/15/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 415 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC011-015-017-019-027-039-043-047-049-051-069-073-083-087-093- 099-103-109-119-123-125-137-149-153-150340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN CARTER CLEVELAND CUSTER DEWEY GARFIELD GARVIN GRADY JOHNSTON KINGFISHER LOGAN MCCLAIN MAJOR MURRAY NOBLE OKLAHOMA PAYNE PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE STEPHENS WASHITA WOODWARD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0416 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 416 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SUPINIE..06/15/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 416 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC003-017-027-033-037-045-055-065-069-075-079-087-095-097-103- 107-111-150240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG HORN CUSTER FERGUS GARFIELD GOLDEN VALLEY JUDITH BASIN MCCONE MUSSELSHELL PETROLEUM POWDER RIVER PRAIRIE ROSEBUD STILLWATER SWEET GRASS TREASURE WHEATLAND YELLOWSTONE WYC033-150240- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE SHERIDAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0416 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 416 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SUPINIE..06/15/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 416 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC003-017-027-033-037-045-055-065-069-075-079-087-095-097-103- 107-111-150240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG HORN CUSTER FERGUS GARFIELD GOLDEN VALLEY JUDITH BASIN MCCONE MUSSELSHELL PETROLEUM POWDER RIVER PRAIRIE ROSEBUD STILLWATER SWEET GRASS TREASURE WHEATLAND YELLOWSTONE WYC033-150240- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE SHERIDAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0414 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 414 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E FCL TO 20 ENE BFF TO 40 NNE CPR. ..SUPINIE..06/15/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...UNR...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 414 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC075-087-123-150240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LOGAN MORGAN WELD NEC007-013-033-045-105-123-157-165-150240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE DAWES KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SIOUX SDC033-047-150240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUSTER FALL RIVER Read more

MD 1292 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF MARYLAND...NORTHERN VIRGINIA...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...AND THE EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1292 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0712 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Areas affected...parts of Maryland...northern Virginia...the District of Columbia...and the eastern West Virginia Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 150012Z - 150145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts are possible this evening across parts of Maryland, northern Virginia, the District of Columbia, and the eastern West Virginia Panhandle. A watch is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Clusters of storms are ongoing across the eastern West Virginia Panhandle and northern and eastern Virginia. Per ACARS profiles from BWI and DCA, the atmosphere is very moist with poor mid-level lapse rates. Additionally, regional VWPs indicate shear is fairly weak (25 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear), though this may be enough for some loosely organized multicell convection. Given the thermodynamic environment, water loading in downdrafts may cause some damaging gusts, particularly where storms have clustered and precipitation mass is concentrated. There is a general northwest-southeast gradient in CAPE in the region, though poor low-level flow across this gradient suggests that convection will be difficult to sustain with the loss of daytime heating. Because of this and the expected sparse coverage of damaging gusts, a watch is not anticipated. ..Supinie/Smith.. 06/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX... LAT...LON 39167881 39597858 39657800 39577675 39287602 38547577 38007575 37697591 37427649 37507717 37837821 38207854 38837880 39167881 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

MD 1291 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST NE...SOUTHEAST SD...NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL IA
Mesoscale Discussion 1291 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Areas affected...Northeast NE...southeast SD...northwest/north-central IA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 142347Z - 150145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms may persist through mid evening. DISCUSSION...Scattered storms have developed along a quasi-stationary surface front from northeast NE/southeast SD into northwest IA. Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg) is in place along/south of the front, though deep-layer flow/shear is rather weak. Storms thus far have exhibited pulse to weak multicell characteristics, though one storm did produce severe hail earlier in northwest IA. Isolated hail will continue to be possible with the strongest storms, along with some potential for localized downburst winds. Generally limited storm organization should tend to hamper the duration and coverage of the severe threat this evening, but some isolated potential could persist through mid evening. ..Dean/Smith.. 06/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX... LAT...LON 42809811 43469688 43309500 43019320 42789282 42569266 42169280 41799313 41439346 41939480 42129556 42189657 42179728 42189749 42129798 42809811 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 1290 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/WESTERN OK INTO EXTREME NORTH-CENTRAL TX
Mesoscale Discussion 1290 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0615 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Areas affected...Parts of central/western OK into extreme north-central TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 142315Z - 150115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Severe storm development will become increasingly possible with time this evening. Watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...Attempts at convective initiation are underway across northwest OK, within an area of cumulus near a remnant outflow boundary. Another storm has developed across south-central OK. Strong to extreme instability (with MLCAPE of 3000-4500 J/kg) is in place along/south of the boundary, with modest northwesterly midlevel flow providing 30-40 kt of effective shear, sufficient for supercell development given the very strong instability. Coverage and intensity of storms in the short term remains uncertain, due to rather nebulous large-scale ascent. However, at least isolated severe storm development is possible through 01 UTC, with coverage expected to increase with time later this evening in response to a strengthening low-level jet. Large to locally very large hail and localized severe gusts could accompany the strongest storms through the evening. Low-level hodograph enhancement near the outflow boundary could also support tornado potential. Trends will be monitored for an increase in severe storm coverage this evening, and watch issuance is possible. ..Dean/Smith.. 06/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 36509984 36729845 36679659 35409629 33709655 33659845 34349889 34939943 35349964 35899973 36509984 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONTANA TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the northern and central High Plains this evening. Large hail and damaging winds will also be possible from south-central Kansas into portions of Oklahoma. ...Southeast... Severe probabilities have been removed from Alabama to the southern Mid-Atlantic. While thunderstorm activity may persist for several more hours this evening/tonight, overall severe potential is expected to remain low as the boundary-layer stabilizes with the loss of daytime heating. For more information, reference MCD 1292. ...Southern Plains... The Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been expanded westward into parts of western OK this evening to account for developing convection within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 415. Additional storms are expected to develop through the evening and into the overnight hours as a low-level jet increases. Isolated large hail and scattered damaging wind gusts will be possible with this activity. Some consideration was given to expanding the Slight risk further west into portions of the OK/TX Panhandle and perhaps far southwest KS as well. Most CAMs suggest convection will either spread southeast from a cluster in CO, or develop along the western edges of the outflow as the low-level jet increases across the TX Panhandle tonight. However, confidence in this scenario is low, and given the time of day (after 06z) and strong boundary-layer inhibition, will maintain the Marginal risk (level 1 of 2) further west. However, if convection does develop across far southwest KS into the Panhandles, locally strong/severe wind gusts will be possible. ...MT into the Central High Plains... No changes have been made. Damaging wind and large hail potential will persist for several hours tonight. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watches 414 and 416. ..Leitman.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONTANA TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the northern and central High Plains this evening. Large hail and damaging winds will also be possible from south-central Kansas into portions of Oklahoma. ...Southeast... Severe probabilities have been removed from Alabama to the southern Mid-Atlantic. While thunderstorm activity may persist for several more hours this evening/tonight, overall severe potential is expected to remain low as the boundary-layer stabilizes with the loss of daytime heating. For more information, reference MCD 1292. ...Southern Plains... The Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been expanded westward into parts of western OK this evening to account for developing convection within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 415. Additional storms are expected to develop through the evening and into the overnight hours as a low-level jet increases. Isolated large hail and scattered damaging wind gusts will be possible with this activity. Some consideration was given to expanding the Slight risk further west into portions of the OK/TX Panhandle and perhaps far southwest KS as well. Most CAMs suggest convection will either spread southeast from a cluster in CO, or develop along the western edges of the outflow as the low-level jet increases across the TX Panhandle tonight. However, confidence in this scenario is low, and given the time of day (after 06z) and strong boundary-layer inhibition, will maintain the Marginal risk (level 1 of 2) further west. However, if convection does develop across far southwest KS into the Panhandles, locally strong/severe wind gusts will be possible. ...MT into the Central High Plains... No changes have been made. Damaging wind and large hail potential will persist for several hours tonight. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watches 414 and 416. ..Leitman.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONTANA TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the northern and central High Plains this evening. Large hail and damaging winds will also be possible from south-central Kansas into portions of Oklahoma. ...Southeast... Severe probabilities have been removed from Alabama to the southern Mid-Atlantic. While thunderstorm activity may persist for several more hours this evening/tonight, overall severe potential is expected to remain low as the boundary-layer stabilizes with the loss of daytime heating. For more information, reference MCD 1292. ...Southern Plains... The Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been expanded westward into parts of western OK this evening to account for developing convection within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 415. Additional storms are expected to develop through the evening and into the overnight hours as a low-level jet increases. Isolated large hail and scattered damaging wind gusts will be possible with this activity. Some consideration was given to expanding the Slight risk further west into portions of the OK/TX Panhandle and perhaps far southwest KS as well. Most CAMs suggest convection will either spread southeast from a cluster in CO, or develop along the western edges of the outflow as the low-level jet increases across the TX Panhandle tonight. However, confidence in this scenario is low, and given the time of day (after 06z) and strong boundary-layer inhibition, will maintain the Marginal risk (level 1 of 2) further west. However, if convection does develop across far southwest KS into the Panhandles, locally strong/severe wind gusts will be possible. ...MT into the Central High Plains... No changes have been made. Damaging wind and large hail potential will persist for several hours tonight. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watches 414 and 416. ..Leitman.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONTANA TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the northern and central High Plains this evening. Large hail and damaging winds will also be possible from south-central Kansas into portions of Oklahoma. ...Southeast... Severe probabilities have been removed from Alabama to the southern Mid-Atlantic. While thunderstorm activity may persist for several more hours this evening/tonight, overall severe potential is expected to remain low as the boundary-layer stabilizes with the loss of daytime heating. For more information, reference MCD 1292. ...Southern Plains... The Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been expanded westward into parts of western OK this evening to account for developing convection within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 415. Additional storms are expected to develop through the evening and into the overnight hours as a low-level jet increases. Isolated large hail and scattered damaging wind gusts will be possible with this activity. Some consideration was given to expanding the Slight risk further west into portions of the OK/TX Panhandle and perhaps far southwest KS as well. Most CAMs suggest convection will either spread southeast from a cluster in CO, or develop along the western edges of the outflow as the low-level jet increases across the TX Panhandle tonight. However, confidence in this scenario is low, and given the time of day (after 06z) and strong boundary-layer inhibition, will maintain the Marginal risk (level 1 of 2) further west. However, if convection does develop across far southwest KS into the Panhandles, locally strong/severe wind gusts will be possible. ...MT into the Central High Plains... No changes have been made. Damaging wind and large hail potential will persist for several hours tonight. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watches 414 and 416. ..Leitman.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONTANA TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the northern and central High Plains this evening. Large hail and damaging winds will also be possible from south-central Kansas into portions of Oklahoma. ...Southeast... Severe probabilities have been removed from Alabama to the southern Mid-Atlantic. While thunderstorm activity may persist for several more hours this evening/tonight, overall severe potential is expected to remain low as the boundary-layer stabilizes with the loss of daytime heating. For more information, reference MCD 1292. ...Southern Plains... The Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been expanded westward into parts of western OK this evening to account for developing convection within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 415. Additional storms are expected to develop through the evening and into the overnight hours as a low-level jet increases. Isolated large hail and scattered damaging wind gusts will be possible with this activity. Some consideration was given to expanding the Slight risk further west into portions of the OK/TX Panhandle and perhaps far southwest KS as well. Most CAMs suggest convection will either spread southeast from a cluster in CO, or develop along the western edges of the outflow as the low-level jet increases across the TX Panhandle tonight. However, confidence in this scenario is low, and given the time of day (after 06z) and strong boundary-layer inhibition, will maintain the Marginal risk (level 1 of 2) further west. However, if convection does develop across far southwest KS into the Panhandles, locally strong/severe wind gusts will be possible. ...MT into the Central High Plains... No changes have been made. Damaging wind and large hail potential will persist for several hours tonight. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watches 414 and 416. ..Leitman.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONTANA TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the northern and central High Plains this evening. Large hail and damaging winds will also be possible from south-central Kansas into portions of Oklahoma. ...Southeast... Severe probabilities have been removed from Alabama to the southern Mid-Atlantic. While thunderstorm activity may persist for several more hours this evening/tonight, overall severe potential is expected to remain low as the boundary-layer stabilizes with the loss of daytime heating. For more information, reference MCD 1292. ...Southern Plains... The Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been expanded westward into parts of western OK this evening to account for developing convection within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 415. Additional storms are expected to develop through the evening and into the overnight hours as a low-level jet increases. Isolated large hail and scattered damaging wind gusts will be possible with this activity. Some consideration was given to expanding the Slight risk further west into portions of the OK/TX Panhandle and perhaps far southwest KS as well. Most CAMs suggest convection will either spread southeast from a cluster in CO, or develop along the western edges of the outflow as the low-level jet increases across the TX Panhandle tonight. However, confidence in this scenario is low, and given the time of day (after 06z) and strong boundary-layer inhibition, will maintain the Marginal risk (level 1 of 2) further west. However, if convection does develop across far southwest KS into the Panhandles, locally strong/severe wind gusts will be possible. ...MT into the Central High Plains... No changes have been made. Damaging wind and large hail potential will persist for several hours tonight. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watches 414 and 416. ..Leitman.. 06/15/2025 Read more