Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONTANA TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the northern and central High Plains this evening. Large hail and damaging winds will also be possible from south-central Kansas into portions of Oklahoma. ...Southeast... Severe probabilities have been removed from Alabama to the southern Mid-Atlantic. While thunderstorm activity may persist for several more hours this evening/tonight, overall severe potential is expected to remain low as the boundary-layer stabilizes with the loss of daytime heating. For more information, reference MCD 1292. ...Southern Plains... The Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been expanded westward into parts of western OK this evening to account for developing convection within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 415. Additional storms are expected to develop through the evening and into the overnight hours as a low-level jet increases. Isolated large hail and scattered damaging wind gusts will be possible with this activity. Some consideration was given to expanding the Slight risk further west into portions of the OK/TX Panhandle and perhaps far southwest KS as well. Most CAMs suggest convection will either spread southeast from a cluster in CO, or develop along the western edges of the outflow as the low-level jet increases across the TX Panhandle tonight. However, confidence in this scenario is low, and given the time of day (after 06z) and strong boundary-layer inhibition, will maintain the Marginal risk (level 1 of 2) further west. However, if convection does develop across far southwest KS into the Panhandles, locally strong/severe wind gusts will be possible. ...MT into the Central High Plains... No changes have been made. Damaging wind and large hail potential will persist for several hours tonight. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watches 414 and 416. ..Leitman.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONTANA TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the northern and central High Plains this evening. Large hail and damaging winds will also be possible from south-central Kansas into portions of Oklahoma. ...Southeast... Severe probabilities have been removed from Alabama to the southern Mid-Atlantic. While thunderstorm activity may persist for several more hours this evening/tonight, overall severe potential is expected to remain low as the boundary-layer stabilizes with the loss of daytime heating. For more information, reference MCD 1292. ...Southern Plains... The Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been expanded westward into parts of western OK this evening to account for developing convection within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 415. Additional storms are expected to develop through the evening and into the overnight hours as a low-level jet increases. Isolated large hail and scattered damaging wind gusts will be possible with this activity. Some consideration was given to expanding the Slight risk further west into portions of the OK/TX Panhandle and perhaps far southwest KS as well. Most CAMs suggest convection will either spread southeast from a cluster in CO, or develop along the western edges of the outflow as the low-level jet increases across the TX Panhandle tonight. However, confidence in this scenario is low, and given the time of day (after 06z) and strong boundary-layer inhibition, will maintain the Marginal risk (level 1 of 2) further west. However, if convection does develop across far southwest KS into the Panhandles, locally strong/severe wind gusts will be possible. ...MT into the Central High Plains... No changes have been made. Damaging wind and large hail potential will persist for several hours tonight. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watches 414 and 416. ..Leitman.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONTANA TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the northern and central High Plains this evening. Large hail and damaging winds will also be possible from south-central Kansas into portions of Oklahoma. ...Southeast... Severe probabilities have been removed from Alabama to the southern Mid-Atlantic. While thunderstorm activity may persist for several more hours this evening/tonight, overall severe potential is expected to remain low as the boundary-layer stabilizes with the loss of daytime heating. For more information, reference MCD 1292. ...Southern Plains... The Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been expanded westward into parts of western OK this evening to account for developing convection within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 415. Additional storms are expected to develop through the evening and into the overnight hours as a low-level jet increases. Isolated large hail and scattered damaging wind gusts will be possible with this activity. Some consideration was given to expanding the Slight risk further west into portions of the OK/TX Panhandle and perhaps far southwest KS as well. Most CAMs suggest convection will either spread southeast from a cluster in CO, or develop along the western edges of the outflow as the low-level jet increases across the TX Panhandle tonight. However, confidence in this scenario is low, and given the time of day (after 06z) and strong boundary-layer inhibition, will maintain the Marginal risk (level 1 of 2) further west. However, if convection does develop across far southwest KS into the Panhandles, locally strong/severe wind gusts will be possible. ...MT into the Central High Plains... No changes have been made. Damaging wind and large hail potential will persist for several hours tonight. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watches 414 and 416. ..Leitman.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONTANA TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the northern and central High Plains this evening. Large hail and damaging winds will also be possible from south-central Kansas into portions of Oklahoma. ...Southeast... Severe probabilities have been removed from Alabama to the southern Mid-Atlantic. While thunderstorm activity may persist for several more hours this evening/tonight, overall severe potential is expected to remain low as the boundary-layer stabilizes with the loss of daytime heating. For more information, reference MCD 1292. ...Southern Plains... The Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been expanded westward into parts of western OK this evening to account for developing convection within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 415. Additional storms are expected to develop through the evening and into the overnight hours as a low-level jet increases. Isolated large hail and scattered damaging wind gusts will be possible with this activity. Some consideration was given to expanding the Slight risk further west into portions of the OK/TX Panhandle and perhaps far southwest KS as well. Most CAMs suggest convection will either spread southeast from a cluster in CO, or develop along the western edges of the outflow as the low-level jet increases across the TX Panhandle tonight. However, confidence in this scenario is low, and given the time of day (after 06z) and strong boundary-layer inhibition, will maintain the Marginal risk (level 1 of 2) further west. However, if convection does develop across far southwest KS into the Panhandles, locally strong/severe wind gusts will be possible. ...MT into the Central High Plains... No changes have been made. Damaging wind and large hail potential will persist for several hours tonight. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watches 414 and 416. ..Leitman.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONTANA TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the northern and central High Plains this evening. Large hail and damaging winds will also be possible from south-central Kansas into portions of Oklahoma. ...Southeast... Severe probabilities have been removed from Alabama to the southern Mid-Atlantic. While thunderstorm activity may persist for several more hours this evening/tonight, overall severe potential is expected to remain low as the boundary-layer stabilizes with the loss of daytime heating. For more information, reference MCD 1292. ...Southern Plains... The Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been expanded westward into parts of western OK this evening to account for developing convection within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 415. Additional storms are expected to develop through the evening and into the overnight hours as a low-level jet increases. Isolated large hail and scattered damaging wind gusts will be possible with this activity. Some consideration was given to expanding the Slight risk further west into portions of the OK/TX Panhandle and perhaps far southwest KS as well. Most CAMs suggest convection will either spread southeast from a cluster in CO, or develop along the western edges of the outflow as the low-level jet increases across the TX Panhandle tonight. However, confidence in this scenario is low, and given the time of day (after 06z) and strong boundary-layer inhibition, will maintain the Marginal risk (level 1 of 2) further west. However, if convection does develop across far southwest KS into the Panhandles, locally strong/severe wind gusts will be possible. ...MT into the Central High Plains... No changes have been made. Damaging wind and large hail potential will persist for several hours tonight. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watches 414 and 416. ..Leitman.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONTANA TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the northern and central High Plains this evening. Large hail and damaging winds will also be possible from south-central Kansas into portions of Oklahoma. ...Southeast... Severe probabilities have been removed from Alabama to the southern Mid-Atlantic. While thunderstorm activity may persist for several more hours this evening/tonight, overall severe potential is expected to remain low as the boundary-layer stabilizes with the loss of daytime heating. For more information, reference MCD 1292. ...Southern Plains... The Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been expanded westward into parts of western OK this evening to account for developing convection within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 415. Additional storms are expected to develop through the evening and into the overnight hours as a low-level jet increases. Isolated large hail and scattered damaging wind gusts will be possible with this activity. Some consideration was given to expanding the Slight risk further west into portions of the OK/TX Panhandle and perhaps far southwest KS as well. Most CAMs suggest convection will either spread southeast from a cluster in CO, or develop along the western edges of the outflow as the low-level jet increases across the TX Panhandle tonight. However, confidence in this scenario is low, and given the time of day (after 06z) and strong boundary-layer inhibition, will maintain the Marginal risk (level 1 of 2) further west. However, if convection does develop across far southwest KS into the Panhandles, locally strong/severe wind gusts will be possible. ...MT into the Central High Plains... No changes have been made. Damaging wind and large hail potential will persist for several hours tonight. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watches 414 and 416. ..Leitman.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONTANA TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the northern and central High Plains this evening. Large hail and damaging winds will also be possible from south-central Kansas into portions of Oklahoma. ...Southeast... Severe probabilities have been removed from Alabama to the southern Mid-Atlantic. While thunderstorm activity may persist for several more hours this evening/tonight, overall severe potential is expected to remain low as the boundary-layer stabilizes with the loss of daytime heating. For more information, reference MCD 1292. ...Southern Plains... The Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been expanded westward into parts of western OK this evening to account for developing convection within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 415. Additional storms are expected to develop through the evening and into the overnight hours as a low-level jet increases. Isolated large hail and scattered damaging wind gusts will be possible with this activity. Some consideration was given to expanding the Slight risk further west into portions of the OK/TX Panhandle and perhaps far southwest KS as well. Most CAMs suggest convection will either spread southeast from a cluster in CO, or develop along the western edges of the outflow as the low-level jet increases across the TX Panhandle tonight. However, confidence in this scenario is low, and given the time of day (after 06z) and strong boundary-layer inhibition, will maintain the Marginal risk (level 1 of 2) further west. However, if convection does develop across far southwest KS into the Panhandles, locally strong/severe wind gusts will be possible. ...MT into the Central High Plains... No changes have been made. Damaging wind and large hail potential will persist for several hours tonight. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watches 414 and 416. ..Leitman.. 06/15/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONTANA TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible across parts of the northern and central High Plains this evening. Large hail and damaging winds will also be possible from south-central Kansas into portions of Oklahoma. ...Southeast... Severe probabilities have been removed from Alabama to the southern Mid-Atlantic. While thunderstorm activity may persist for several more hours this evening/tonight, overall severe potential is expected to remain low as the boundary-layer stabilizes with the loss of daytime heating. For more information, reference MCD 1292. ...Southern Plains... The Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been expanded westward into parts of western OK this evening to account for developing convection within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 415. Additional storms are expected to develop through the evening and into the overnight hours as a low-level jet increases. Isolated large hail and scattered damaging wind gusts will be possible with this activity. Some consideration was given to expanding the Slight risk further west into portions of the OK/TX Panhandle and perhaps far southwest KS as well. Most CAMs suggest convection will either spread southeast from a cluster in CO, or develop along the western edges of the outflow as the low-level jet increases across the TX Panhandle tonight. However, confidence in this scenario is low, and given the time of day (after 06z) and strong boundary-layer inhibition, will maintain the Marginal risk (level 1 of 2) further west. However, if convection does develop across far southwest KS into the Panhandles, locally strong/severe wind gusts will be possible. ...MT into the Central High Plains... No changes have been made. Damaging wind and large hail potential will persist for several hours tonight. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watches 414 and 416. ..Leitman.. 06/15/2025 Read more

WW 0415 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 415 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..06/15/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 415 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC011-015-017-019-027-039-043-047-049-051-067-069-073-083-085- 087-093-095-099-109-123-125-137-149-153-150140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN CARTER CLEVELAND CUSTER DEWEY GARFIELD GARVIN GRADY JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KINGFISHER LOGAN LOVE MCCLAIN MAJOR MARSHALL MURRAY OKLAHOMA PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE STEPHENS WASHITA WOODWARD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0415 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 415 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..06/15/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 415 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC011-015-017-019-027-039-043-047-049-051-067-069-073-083-085- 087-093-095-099-109-123-125-137-149-153-150140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN CARTER CLEVELAND CUSTER DEWEY GARFIELD GARVIN GRADY JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KINGFISHER LOGAN LOVE MCCLAIN MAJOR MARSHALL MURRAY OKLAHOMA PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE STEPHENS WASHITA WOODWARD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0414 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 414 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E FCL TO 40 SSE DGW TO 35 SW DGW. ..SUPINIE..06/15/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...UNR...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 414 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC075-087-123-150140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LOGAN MORGAN WELD NEC007-013-033-045-105-123-157-165-150140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE DAWES KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SIOUX SDC033-047-150140- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUSTER FALL RIVER Read more

MD 1289 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1289 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0604 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 142304Z - 150030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Large, perhaps significant, hail and severe gusts will be the primary threats from convection developing across central and eastern Montana. A watch may be needed. DISCUSSION...Convection is beginning to develop along the high terrain in south central Montana with moist upslope (east-northeasterly) surface flow and underneath the southern periphery of a west-southwesterly mid- and upper-level jet. This configuration has resulted in seasonably strong deep layer shear (generally 40-50 kts effective bulk shear) with straight hodographs per mesoanalysis. These factors when combined with a low freezing level suggest large hail, perhaps significant severe hail, as a primary threat, at least early on. With time, storms may cluster with merging cold pools, and this would transition to a severe gust threat. However, boundary layer RH is relatively high, and overall flow is not appreciably strong, so this may limit the gust potential from these storms. Additionally, some lingering inhibition is present across south-central Montana associated with cirrus across the region. This may reduce the number of storms, which would delay the storm clustering and prolong the hail threat into the evening. ..Supinie/Smith.. 06/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... LAT...LON 46331056 47211033 47760928 47880783 47770664 47060537 46290513 45400537 45050617 45070764 45150908 45641021 46331056 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0416 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0416 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1291 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST NE...SOUTHEAST SD...NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL IA
Mesoscale Discussion 1291 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Areas affected...Northeast NE...southeast SD...northwest/north-central IA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 142347Z - 150145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms may persist through mid evening. DISCUSSION...Scattered storms have developed along a quasi-stationary surface front from northeast NE/southeast SD into northwest IA. Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg) is in place along/south of the front, though deep-layer flow/shear is rather weak. Storms thus far have exhibited pulse to weak multicell characteristics, though one storm did produce severe hail earlier in northwest IA. Isolated hail will continue to be possible with the strongest storms, along with some potential for localized downburst winds. Generally limited storm organization should tend to hamper the duration and coverage of the severe threat this evening, but some isolated potential could persist through mid evening. ..Dean/Smith.. 06/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX... LAT...LON 42809811 43469688 43309500 43019320 42789282 42569266 42169280 41799313 41439346 41939480 42129556 42189657 42179728 42189749 42129798 42809811 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 1289 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1289 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0604 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 142304Z - 150030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Large, perhaps significant, hail and severe gusts will be the primary threats from convection developing across central and eastern Montana. A watch may be needed. DISCUSSION...Convection is beginning to develop along the high terrain in south central Montana with moist upslope (east-northeasterly) surface flow and underneath the southern periphery of a west-southwesterly mid- and upper-level jet. This configuration has resulted in seasonably strong deep layer shear (generally 40-50 kts effective bulk shear) with straight hodographs per mesoanalysis. These factors when combined with a low freezing level suggest large hail, perhaps significant severe hail, as a primary threat, at least early on. With time, storms may cluster with merging cold pools, and this would transition to a severe gust threat. However, boundary layer RH is relatively high, and overall flow is not appreciably strong, so this may limit the gust potential from these storms. Additionally, some lingering inhibition is present across south-central Montana associated with cirrus across the region. This may reduce the number of storms, which would delay the storm clustering and prolong the hail threat into the evening. ..Supinie/Smith.. 06/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... LAT...LON 46331056 47211033 47760928 47880783 47770664 47060537 46290513 45400537 45050617 45070764 45150908 45641021 46331056 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 1290 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/WESTERN OK INTO EXTREME NORTH-CENTRAL TX
Mesoscale Discussion 1290 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0615 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Areas affected...Parts of central/western OK into extreme north-central TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 142315Z - 150115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Severe storm development will become increasingly possible with time this evening. Watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...Attempts at convective initiation are underway across northwest OK, within an area of cumulus near a remnant outflow boundary. Another storm has developed across south-central OK. Strong to extreme instability (with MLCAPE of 3000-4500 J/kg) is in place along/south of the boundary, with modest northwesterly midlevel flow providing 30-40 kt of effective shear, sufficient for supercell development given the very strong instability. Coverage and intensity of storms in the short term remains uncertain, due to rather nebulous large-scale ascent. However, at least isolated severe storm development is possible through 01 UTC, with coverage expected to increase with time later this evening in response to a strengthening low-level jet. Large to locally very large hail and localized severe gusts could accompany the strongest storms through the evening. Low-level hodograph enhancement near the outflow boundary could also support tornado potential. Trends will be monitored for an increase in severe storm coverage this evening, and watch issuance is possible. ..Dean/Smith.. 06/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 36509984 36729845 36679659 35409629 33709655 33659845 34349889 34939943 35349964 35899973 36509984 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0415 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0415 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 415 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 142335Z - 150400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 415 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 635 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western into Central and Southern Oklahoma North Texas * Effective this Saturday evening from 635 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Isolated significant damaging wind gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A few supercells are forecast mainly this evening within a very unstable airmass across portions of Oklahoma into the Red River Valley. Large to very large hail appears to be the primary hazard, but a tornado cannot be ruled out with a storm preferentially interacting with an outflow boundary draped across the region. Isolated severe gusts may become more prevalent later this evening as storms become more efficient at producing outflow. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles west northwest of Enid OK to 25 miles southwest of Sherman TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 414... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 29010. ...Smith Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jun 14 23:00:11 UTC 2025.

MD 1288 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST ALABAMA INTO NORTH GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1288 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Areas affected...Northeast Alabama into North Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 142053Z - 142300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Locally damaging winds may occur with marginally organized bands of convection. Storms are expected to weaken around sunset. DISCUSSION...A belt of modestly stronger mid-level winds is evident on regional VAD data near a weakening trough in the mid Ohio Valley. With strong daytime heating of a moist (low 70s F dewpoints) airmass, around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE has developed this afternoon. A few clusters of storms have become marginally organized this afternoon. A recent observed gust of 44 kts at the Rome, GA ASOS suggests near-severe/potentially damaging gusts are possible with this activity. As daytime heating wanes, storms should gradually decrease in intensity by sunset. ..Wendt/Thompson.. 06/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...BMX...HUN... LAT...LON 33648666 34968493 35208395 34978306 34208288 33858280 33618306 33438359 33458467 33408525 33378607 33648666 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more