Severe Storms

MD 1285 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...FAR NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1285 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Areas affected...Southwest Virginia...central/southeast Virginia...far northern North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 141746Z - 141945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Storms will continue to develop and pose some risk of damaging winds as they move east off the Blue Ridge. A watch is not currently expected given the loosely organized convection. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite continues to show deepening cumulus clouds developing within the Blue Ridge. This is in response to a weak mid-level trough upstream in the Mid-South. This trend is expected to continue given the very moist (low 70s F dewpoints) and uncapped airmass. Temperatures are in the mid/upper 80s F in southern Virginia and low-level lapse rates will support a few stronger/potentially damaging wind gusts with activity as it moves eastward. Given the weakening trough to the west, deep-layer shear will be modest and storms will only be loosely organized. Furthermore, weak mid-level lapse rates, sampled by regional 12Z soundings, will also temper storm intensity. Some guidance has suggested small-scale clustering may occur. This could lead to a locally greater threat for wind damage. ..Wendt/Thompson.. 06/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK... LAT...LON 36197950 36038117 36288113 37518059 37908021 38137817 37987733 37557702 37127692 36727715 36587751 36197950 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 06/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Modest southwesterly flow aloft is expected over the Great Basin on Sunday, and strong mixing during the afternoon will bring some of that flow down to the surface. Across parts of northwestern Nevada, RH is expected to be near 5-15% with gusts to 20-25 mph. Fuels in the region are relatively dry, with no rain expected in the intervening period. For this reason, have introduced Elevated highlights in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 06/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Modest southwesterly flow aloft is expected over the Great Basin on Sunday, and strong mixing during the afternoon will bring some of that flow down to the surface. Across parts of northwestern Nevada, RH is expected to be near 5-15% with gusts to 20-25 mph. Fuels in the region are relatively dry, with no rain expected in the intervening period. For this reason, have introduced Elevated highlights in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 06/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Modest southwesterly flow aloft is expected over the Great Basin on Sunday, and strong mixing during the afternoon will bring some of that flow down to the surface. Across parts of northwestern Nevada, RH is expected to be near 5-15% with gusts to 20-25 mph. Fuels in the region are relatively dry, with no rain expected in the intervening period. For this reason, have introduced Elevated highlights in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 06/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Modest southwesterly flow aloft is expected over the Great Basin on Sunday, and strong mixing during the afternoon will bring some of that flow down to the surface. Across parts of northwestern Nevada, RH is expected to be near 5-15% with gusts to 20-25 mph. Fuels in the region are relatively dry, with no rain expected in the intervening period. For this reason, have introduced Elevated highlights in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 06/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Modest southwesterly flow aloft is expected over the Great Basin on Sunday, and strong mixing during the afternoon will bring some of that flow down to the surface. Across parts of northwestern Nevada, RH is expected to be near 5-15% with gusts to 20-25 mph. Fuels in the region are relatively dry, with no rain expected in the intervening period. For this reason, have introduced Elevated highlights in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 06/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Modest southwesterly flow aloft is expected over the Great Basin on Sunday, and strong mixing during the afternoon will bring some of that flow down to the surface. Across parts of northwestern Nevada, RH is expected to be near 5-15% with gusts to 20-25 mph. Fuels in the region are relatively dry, with no rain expected in the intervening period. For this reason, have introduced Elevated highlights in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 06/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Modest southwesterly flow aloft is expected over the Great Basin on Sunday, and strong mixing during the afternoon will bring some of that flow down to the surface. Across parts of northwestern Nevada, RH is expected to be near 5-15% with gusts to 20-25 mph. Fuels in the region are relatively dry, with no rain expected in the intervening period. For this reason, have introduced Elevated highlights in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 06/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Modest southwesterly flow aloft is expected over the Great Basin on Sunday, and strong mixing during the afternoon will bring some of that flow down to the surface. Across parts of northwestern Nevada, RH is expected to be near 5-15% with gusts to 20-25 mph. Fuels in the region are relatively dry, with no rain expected in the intervening period. For this reason, have introduced Elevated highlights in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 06/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Modest southwesterly flow aloft is expected over the Great Basin on Sunday, and strong mixing during the afternoon will bring some of that flow down to the surface. Across parts of northwestern Nevada, RH is expected to be near 5-15% with gusts to 20-25 mph. Fuels in the region are relatively dry, with no rain expected in the intervening period. For this reason, have introduced Elevated highlights in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 06/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Modest southwesterly flow aloft is expected over the Great Basin on Sunday, and strong mixing during the afternoon will bring some of that flow down to the surface. Across parts of northwestern Nevada, RH is expected to be near 5-15% with gusts to 20-25 mph. Fuels in the region are relatively dry, with no rain expected in the intervening period. For this reason, have introduced Elevated highlights in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 06/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Modest southwesterly flow aloft is expected over the Great Basin on Sunday, and strong mixing during the afternoon will bring some of that flow down to the surface. Across parts of northwestern Nevada, RH is expected to be near 5-15% with gusts to 20-25 mph. Fuels in the region are relatively dry, with no rain expected in the intervening period. For this reason, have introduced Elevated highlights in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 06/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Modest southwesterly flow aloft is expected over the Great Basin on Sunday, and strong mixing during the afternoon will bring some of that flow down to the surface. Across parts of northwestern Nevada, RH is expected to be near 5-15% with gusts to 20-25 mph. Fuels in the region are relatively dry, with no rain expected in the intervening period. For this reason, have introduced Elevated highlights in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 06/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Modest southwesterly flow aloft is expected over the Great Basin on Sunday, and strong mixing during the afternoon will bring some of that flow down to the surface. Across parts of northwestern Nevada, RH is expected to be near 5-15% with gusts to 20-25 mph. Fuels in the region are relatively dry, with no rain expected in the intervening period. For this reason, have introduced Elevated highlights in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 06/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Modest southwesterly flow aloft is expected over the Great Basin on Sunday, and strong mixing during the afternoon will bring some of that flow down to the surface. Across parts of northwestern Nevada, RH is expected to be near 5-15% with gusts to 20-25 mph. Fuels in the region are relatively dry, with no rain expected in the intervening period. For this reason, have introduced Elevated highlights in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 06/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Modest southwesterly flow aloft is expected over the Great Basin on Sunday, and strong mixing during the afternoon will bring some of that flow down to the surface. Across parts of northwestern Nevada, RH is expected to be near 5-15% with gusts to 20-25 mph. Fuels in the region are relatively dry, with no rain expected in the intervening period. For this reason, have introduced Elevated highlights in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 06/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... Modest southwesterly flow aloft is expected over the Great Basin on Sunday, and strong mixing during the afternoon will bring some of that flow down to the surface. Across parts of northwestern Nevada, RH is expected to be near 5-15% with gusts to 20-25 mph. Fuels in the region are relatively dry, with no rain expected in the intervening period. For this reason, have introduced Elevated highlights in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1284 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1284 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Areas affected...East-central Oklahoma into west-central Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 141616Z - 141815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated damaging winds are possible with a cluster of storms moving towards east-central/southeast Oklahoma. Convective trends in storm organization will need to be monitored. DISCUSSION...As the low-level jet has diminished in intensity this morning, convection in northeast Oklahoma has had outflow outpace the stronger updrafts. While the 12Z observed sounding from Little Rock showed poor lapse rates aloft, modifying the sounding with current surface observation suggests around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Recently, storms have developed near the intersection of two outflow boundaries south-southwest of Tulsa. Given the improvement in low-level lapse rates into the afternoon downstream of this activity, There is some potential for continued intensification. Overall, tropospheric flow is rather weak. Organization of activity will be largely dependent on cold pool dynamics as well as storms not being undercut by outflow to the northeast. Damaging wind gusts are possible at least on an isolated basis. The need for a watch is uncertain. Observational/convective trends will need to be monitored over the next few hours. ..Wendt/Thompson.. 06/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 36199393 35819313 35349283 34839320 34409410 34369485 34599587 35259694 36089613 36289474 36199393 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, capable of large hail and severe wind gusts, are expected on Sunday in parts of the northern and central High Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are possible in parts of North Carolina and Virginia. ...Synopsis... An upper-level high will remain in place across the central/northern Plains into the northern Rockies on D2/Sunday. Westerly flow aloft will move across the ridge, with a few shortwave impulses rotating through the flow. Afternoon thunderstorm development is expected from the Northern Rockies southward across the dryline in the central high Plains. A surface low is expected to deepen across Wyoming through the period, lifting northward across the Dakotas. ...Central and Northern Plains... As the surface low across Wyoming deepens, east to southeasterly flow will continue across the central and northern Plains. Dew points in the low to mid 60s will be common, allowing for strong to moderate instability to develop by the afternoon. Upslope flow across the northern Rockies and forcing for ascent with shortwaves rounding the ridge will allow for scattered thunderstorm development across the high terrain spreading into the lower elevations through the later afternoon/evening. Generally straight hodograph profiles will support initial supercell modes before clustering and upscale growth occurs into the late afternoon. Given steep lapse rates and ample deep layer shear, large to very large hail (some 2-3"+) will be possible. As the surface low deepens into the afternoon, mass response will occur with an increase in a southerly low-level jet into the western Dakotas. CAM guidance shows some uncertainty in evolution of storms as they move eastward out of Montana. There is consistent signal that an MCS will travel eastward across some portions of the Dakotas, with potential for strong to significant winds (60-75+ mph). Should a more favorable corridor become established, an upgrade to higher probabilities may be needed. ...Southern/South-Central Plains into the Missouri Valley... An MCS will likely be ongoing across portions of Oklahoma into northern Texas early in the period. Residual outflow in association with this will set up across portion of north-central Texas into Missouri. Convective re-development may be somewhat inhibited due to warm air aloft and the presence of the mid-level ridge. In spite of this, some convection will be possible as low-level convergence increases during the day along pre-existing outflow boundaries. Mid-level directional shear is evident on forecast soundings. This could be sufficient for some cell organization and a severe threat. Hail and strong wind gusts would be possible. ...Northern North Carolina/Southern Virginia... A subtle mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move into the southern and central Appalachians on Sunday. At the surface, a lee low is forecast to develop over central North Carolina. Scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to develop by the afternoon across northern North Carolina into southern Virginia. Sufficient deep layer and instability will allow for a few instances of severe wind and hail within stronger cores. ..Thornton.. 06/14/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, capable of large hail and severe wind gusts, are expected on Sunday in parts of the northern and central High Plains. Additional strong to severe storms are possible in parts of North Carolina and Virginia. ...Synopsis... An upper-level high will remain in place across the central/northern Plains into the northern Rockies on D2/Sunday. Westerly flow aloft will move across the ridge, with a few shortwave impulses rotating through the flow. Afternoon thunderstorm development is expected from the Northern Rockies southward across the dryline in the central high Plains. A surface low is expected to deepen across Wyoming through the period, lifting northward across the Dakotas. ...Central and Northern Plains... As the surface low across Wyoming deepens, east to southeasterly flow will continue across the central and northern Plains. Dew points in the low to mid 60s will be common, allowing for strong to moderate instability to develop by the afternoon. Upslope flow across the northern Rockies and forcing for ascent with shortwaves rounding the ridge will allow for scattered thunderstorm development across the high terrain spreading into the lower elevations through the later afternoon/evening. Generally straight hodograph profiles will support initial supercell modes before clustering and upscale growth occurs into the late afternoon. Given steep lapse rates and ample deep layer shear, large to very large hail (some 2-3"+) will be possible. As the surface low deepens into the afternoon, mass response will occur with an increase in a southerly low-level jet into the western Dakotas. CAM guidance shows some uncertainty in evolution of storms as they move eastward out of Montana. There is consistent signal that an MCS will travel eastward across some portions of the Dakotas, with potential for strong to significant winds (60-75+ mph). Should a more favorable corridor become established, an upgrade to higher probabilities may be needed. ...Southern/South-Central Plains into the Missouri Valley... An MCS will likely be ongoing across portions of Oklahoma into northern Texas early in the period. Residual outflow in association with this will set up across portion of north-central Texas into Missouri. Convective re-development may be somewhat inhibited due to warm air aloft and the presence of the mid-level ridge. In spite of this, some convection will be possible as low-level convergence increases during the day along pre-existing outflow boundaries. Mid-level directional shear is evident on forecast soundings. This could be sufficient for some cell organization and a severe threat. Hail and strong wind gusts would be possible. ...Northern North Carolina/Southern Virginia... A subtle mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move into the southern and central Appalachians on Sunday. At the surface, a lee low is forecast to develop over central North Carolina. Scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to develop by the afternoon across northern North Carolina into southern Virginia. Sufficient deep layer and instability will allow for a few instances of severe wind and hail within stronger cores. ..Thornton.. 06/14/2025 Read more